Israeli-Arab War

[American Patriot]

No Ceasefire Until the Job Is Done
Human Events ^ | July 25 2006 | Rabbi Aryeh Spero

I and so many other Americans deeply admire the President for not standing in the way of Israel's fight against the terrorist platoons of Hezbollah and Hamas. Other world leaders simply talk of fighting terror but back down when actually having to fight it.

By backing the Israeli effort, Mr. Bush is showing the world that terrorism is something that must be in reality defeated, not simply bemoaned.

Anything short of total victory over Hezbollah and Hamas would be a defeat for Western civilization. Terrorists all over would be emboldened if Hamas and Hezbollah were allowed to remain intact, with infrastructure, even if cut down to half their size. They would obtain “bragging rights” -- boasting how Israel and America could not defeat them.

A cease-fire before the job is completed would give terrorists what they want: official staying power, and the realization that they will always be bailed out by a frightened and timid West lacking the will and conviction to defeat it absolutely. Without any devastating downside, what will stop the jihadist terrorists? They will simply regroup and bomb Israel again, except even worse, with more Iranian-supplied fire power.

Decades of only half measures have engendered in the terrorists an arrogance and over-confidence in their ability to defeat the West. Our self-chosen weakness has provided them a sense of inevitability, a feeling of invincibility.

Israel should be allowed not simply to retaliate but win its war. But such a victory will take more than two weeks. If we allow the terrorists to indict us by highlighting the civilian deaths, then we in the West might as well give them the keys to the global kingdom, since jihadist terrorists precisely position themselves among civilians as their weapon to always soften us.

Jihadists will take country after country. How? Because of our unwillingness to fight them if we have to shoot among their population and suburbs: the bourgeois West's achillees heel. Our gullibility is their most lethal weapon.

A “proportionate response” is whatever it takes to forever stop and eradicate the source which is firing the missiles into Israel, i.e., Hezbollah and Hamas, so that it will not happen again. One removes cancer 100%, not 30%. Yes, there are human side effects, but all the cancerous cells, and terrorist cells, must be excised.

Sadly, the president of Lebanon seems more afraid of Hezbollah and Syria than he is of the United States or Israel. Perhaps it’s because he knows we, and Israel, have not exhibited the absoluteness that Syria, Iran and the terrorists have shown.

President Bush’s support for Israel is a true display of courageous, out-of-the-box leadership, and his clarity as to who is right and who is wrong is much needed in a world beset by moral relativism and diplomatic expediency. Who knows, the Israeli action and the President’s understanding of it may be a psychological turning point.

So many times, hasty diplomacy has stopped chances for military victory. I hope that will not happen here. In this situation, the enemy will never be deterred by diplomacy -- they will simply use it for their advantage. In fact, they see it as weakness. Only a resounding, beyond-a-doubt victory will stop them. Then America, Israel and the world will be safe.

I know that the leftist Spanish prime minister openly wore an Arab/Moslem kaffia to show solidarity with the jihadists and other Moslems. His wish will come true. In less than fifty years, Islam will rule over Spain -- all Spanish prime ministers will be wearing kaffias, or turbans, under duress.

I know how France, Europe and the BBC condemn Israel. That's OK. They do so because as cowards, they are jealous of Israel's bravery. They have chosen appeasement while Israel has chosen to fight. They can't admit their cowardice, so they wrap their condemnation of Israel in high-sounding concern for human rights and lives -- though never Jewish life or rights.

I thank President George Bush, since we all know that if the Islamic terrorist groups are not defeated, they will implement their wish of destroying Israel and bring a Holocaust on its six million Jewish inhabitants.

George Bush is walking tall. It's good to finally see a male who acts like a man, a man who stands above the timid know-it-alls. High noon came and Bush didn't run or ask the United Nations to act for him.

****Rabbi Spero is a radio talk show host, a pulpit rabbi, and president of Caucus for America. He can be reached at www.caucusforamerica.com.****

[American Patriot]

NATO belongs in Lebanon
National Post (Toronto, Canada) ^ | July 25, 2006 | Staff

We have a lot of respect for Condoleezza Rice. For the U.S. Secretary of State, who is currently in the midst of a whirlwind Middle East tour, the path of least diplomatic resistance would have been to echo the widespread call for an immediate ceasefire in the war between Hezbollah and Israel. But to her great credit -- and that of her boss, President George W. Bush -- she didn't. Instead, this week, she told Lebanese officials that any ceasefire would have to be part of a broader deal that included Hezbollah's withdrawal from Lebanon's border with Israel, and the deployment of an international force to guard the peace. "The situation on the border cannot return to what it was before July 12," Ms. Rice declared. She's also said she wants to avoid any deal that produces a "false promise" which leads to "a guarantee of future violence."

The idea of a "ceasefire" always sounds appealing on its face. War is hell, after all. But in this case, a ceasefire without conditions would only lead to more war. Hezbollah would claim that its rocket attacks had tamed the mighty Zionists, and cast the stillborn ground war as proof that Israel was afraid of confronting Hezbollah's Jihadis. Rather than discourage future attacks -- Israel's goal in its ongoing campaign -- Hezbollah would be encouraged to send more rockets and terrorists into Israel in the days to come. As Ms. Rice says, such a peace would be a false one.

No war goes on forever. And this one will likely end in a week or two. By that time, we hope, Israel will have destroyed a sufficient quantity of Hezbollah materiel and killed a sufficient number of jihadis to render risible any claim to victory by Hezbollah or its puppetmasters in Tehran and Damascus. We also hope Israeli troops end the operation in full control of the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, including the villages where Hezbollah's assets are concentrated.

The question is: What then? There is no such thing as a power vacuum in the Middle East. When the Israeli army evacuates Lebanon, Hezbollah will simply reoccupy the territory -- unless a third-party force lays claim. Ideally, that force would be the Lebanese army. But there seems little hope of that: Lebanon's military is weak, and its leadership has been co-opted by Hezbollah sympathizers. Any effort to deploy the army in southern Lebanon could lead to civil war.

So who should be keeping the peace in southern Lebanon? Kofi Annan, naturally, thinks it should be the United Nations. So does Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who claims that any peacekeeping force deployed to his country must fly the UN flag.

But if this job does go to the UN, Israel will have waged its war of self-defence for nothing. The fact is, the United Nations already has a 2,000-strong peacekeeping force in Lebanon called UNIFIL. It's hasn't lifted a finger to stop attacks on Israel. And given the poisonous anti-Israel bias that suffuses the UN, we shouldn't expect any new force deployed under the blue banner to be any different.

The best course -- which has been proposed by the United States and greeted favourably by Israel -- is to deploy a well-armed NATO contingent with a robust combat mandate. This force would not be a doormat-style UN force, but one akin to the allied force currently engaging the Taliban in the south of Afghanistan.

Deploying such a force -- preferably under UN auspices, and preferably including a strong Canadian contingent -- would send exactly the right message to Hezbollah and its bosses in Iran: that the West stands united behind Israel in its fight against militant Islam, and that any unprovoked attack on Israel is an attack on civilized nations everywhere.

© National Post 2006

[American Patriot]

Hezbollah Uses Mass-Kill Rockets
News Max ^ | July 25, 2006 | Kenneth R. Timmerman

NewsMax contributing editor and Middle East expert Kenneth R. Timmerman is in Israel covering the conflict there. He reports from Haifa.

HAIFA, Israel -- The rockets Hezbollah is raining down on Haifa and much of northern Israel are distinctly different from the Soviet-built katyushas of earlier wars, Israeli officials say.

Instead of standard military fragmentation warheads – deadly enough – Hezbollah's rockets are packed with thousands of tiny ball-bearings, which burst out from the warhead in every direction like so many bullets.

"This kind of rocket gives no one a chance," Haifa police chief, Commander Nir Meriash, told NewsMax today.

Haifa is Israel's third-largest city, and since the rocket attacks began on July 12, nearly half its roughly 270,000 population has fled for safety to Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel.

More than 1,200 rockets have hit northern Israel over the past thirteen days, killing 17 civilians and wounding another 410, according to the Israeli police.

Another 609 people have been treated for shock and minor injuries and released, said regional police commander, Maj. Gen. Ronen Dan.

At least 60 of the Hezbollah rockets have slammed into Haifa over the past two weeks. Most of them have been 220 mm Katyusha-type rockets, made in Syria. Each rocket carries 40,000 deadly ball bearings, packed into a warhead with 40 kilograms (88 pounds) of high explosives.

In addition, around a half-dozen of the larger FAJR-3 rockets have hit the Haifa area, including a deadly strike on July 16 that killed eight railway workers in a train maintenance depot.

The FAJR rockets, made in Iran, carry a 110 pound warhead. But what made the July 16 strike so deadly were the tiny ball bearings packed inside.

"Haifa has never been attacked like this," Meriash said. "These attacks are meant to kill civilians."

Even as Haifa police tried to attend to the wounded and clear the scene of any unexploded ordnance, three more rockets struck elsewhere in the city.

Although the rockets are relatively small, they have smashed through the tile roofs and the soft cinderblock walls of apartment houses and other dwellings, killing and wounding people on several floors.

When they explode out in the open, anyone within a fifty meter radius will be seriously wounded.

"I found a woman lying in the street with one of her legs beside her, detached from her body," Meriash said. That attack occurred last Friday, July 21.

In attacks here just yesterday, one man was killed while driving to work. Another was struck by the deadly ball-bearings while running to reach a shelter after the air raid siren went off. He also died.

Most of these rockets are highly inaccurate, wandering off their aim point by anywhere from two to seven percent over distances up to 75 kilometers (45 miles).

That can mean missing their target by half a mile or more.

But Haifa is an enormous target-rich environment, with a sprawling city center that climbs up a mountain directly across from Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

Vast industrial areas in low-lying areas along the port contain sprawling chemical plants and a refinery. The police have taken special measures to protect those sites, they said.

North of here, closer to the Lebanese border, Hezbollah is using extended-range katyushas known as "Raed" rockets. These also are packed with the deadly ball bearings, and have killed and maimed civilians in dozens of Israeli towns and agricultural settlements along the Mediterranean and in the Galilee.

The Chinese-made Raed rockets were supplied to Hezbollah by Iran.

"You won't see this kind of weapon in the arsenal of any civilized country," the deputy head of the police bomb disposal unit told Newsmax. "Certainly not with Israel or the United States."

British-born Michael Cardash said his bomb disposal teams had physically handled debris from 444 of those attacks, but has rarely been called upon to disable live munitions.

"These weapons were all made in factories. So they work," he said.

His teams have gathered pieces of the different rockets and put them on display at police headquarters, near the port of Haifa.

They include:

* 122mm Grad rockets. These are the classic, Soviet-built katyusha rockets used in 1982 by the PLO against Israel. They carry a standard fragmentation warhead, with 6.33 kilograms of high explosives. Range: 20.4 km range.

* 122mm improved rockets, also known as "Raed." These Chinese-built rockets carry the same 6.33 kg explosive charge, but are packed with hundreds of ball bearings. Range: 30-35 km.

* 220 mm rockets, made in Syria. These are the rockets that have been used mostly against Haifa. A large, 40 kilogram explosive charge shoots out an estimated 40,000 tiny ball bearings. Range: 65-70 km range.

* 240 mm rocket, Katyusha family. 10.5 km range. 18 kg HE.

* FAJR 3. This is an Iranian-made 240mm rocket that carries a large, 50 kg (110 pound) warhead, packed with tens of thousands of ball bearings. Range: 43 km range. >

Hezbollah is also known to have two longer-range weapons, which they have yet to use successfully: the Iranian-made FAJR 5, a 75-km range rocket carrying a 90 kilogram warhead; and the Zelzal-1 missile, which can reach targets over 200 kilometers away with a 400 kilogram warhead – several times larger than the SCUD missiles Saddam Hussein launched against Israel in 1991.

The regional police commander, Maj. Gen. Dan, confirmed reports that Israel has deployed Patriot missiles in northern Israel, but said they were not effective against the rockets now being fired against the city.

"We have deployed these missiles for a more serious type of war than we have at the moment," he said.

Israeli military sources said he was referring to the Zelzal missiles, which Hezbollah has not fired since Israeli jets struck a Zelzal launcher last week.

The Israeli air strike made the missile misfire and hit Beirut. The explosion was so big that Hezbollah initially claimed it had downed an Israeli fighter jet.

Israeli intelligence sources have said that several Iranian military advisors have been killed in the recent fighting alongside Hezbollah missile units, but their bodies have been sent to Syria in civilian convoys and repatriated to Iran.

Israeli military intelligence believes Hezbollah will run out of missiles and rockets to fire at Israel within a month, unless it gets resupplied through Syria.

"That is why we have cut all the roads from Syria to Lebanon," a senior Israeli military official, Brig. Gen. Ido Nekushan, said here today.

[American Patriot]

Syria Emerges Front and Center
Human Events ^ | July 25, 2006 | Patrick J Buchanan

"War wins nothing, cures nothing, ends nothing . . . in war there are no winners, but all are losers." So said Neville Chamberlain on the eve of the war he had sought desperately to avoid, but which his own blunders would bring about.

Chamberlain was mistaken. War ended Nazi Germany, though the cost was high: the Holocaust, the collapse of the British Empire, the Stalinization of 11 nations of Eastern Europe, 50 million dead and half a century of Cold War.

As this is written, Condi Rice has arrived in the Middle East, and the two-week Israeli-Hezbollah war, an artillery exchange by World War II standards, seems to be winding down. While final returns are a ways off, the first returns find few winners, except perhaps for Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah.

Nasrallah ignited the war in the north with the tunnel attack on the border outpost that resulted in eight dead Israeli soldiers and two captured. He evaded a bunker-buster attack in south Beirut; he still holds his two captured Israelis; and Hezbollah has withstood two weeks of bombing and shelling by Israel, and fired back more than a thousand Katyushas into Israel and longer-range rockets into Haifa.

While Iran's Ahmadinejad talks the talk about wiping Israel off the map, Nasrallah walks the walk. Among Arabs and Muslims for whom Israel is the great hate object, Nasrallah surely stands as tall today as any leader since Egypt's Nasser. Had the Israelis killed him in that recent air strike, Israel might today claim a victory in the war.

But it is hard to see what Israel has won. The shock-and-awe devastation of Lebanon -- smashed runways, power plants, roads, bridges, apartments, oil refineries, gasoline stations and buses -- may have awed Israel's enemies, but it shocked her friends. It is a puzzle why Israel, provoked by Hezbollah, attacked a democratic Lebanon whose government had not committed the act of aggression but had, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, condemned it.

And the war has exposed a deep wariness on the part of Israel to send her army back into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, whose cross-border raid was a challenge to the Israelis to "come and get us."

Lebanon is the great loser. Tens of thousands of Westerners who had helped bring Lebanon back from the ruins of the 1970s and 1980s have fled. The Cedar Revolution that produced a democracy has been destroyed. With the death toll mounting, thousands wounded, and between 600,000 and 750,000 homeless or refugees, Lebanon has been set back 20 years.

There exists a danger that unless aid is gotten into Lebanon and the refugees are permitted to return to their homes, instead of being the showcase of Bush's democracy project in the Arab world, Lebanon could become another failed state.

Tehran, too, has suffered a loss of prestige. As patrons of Hezbollah, they are today seen in the Middle East as being complicit in an act of stupidity that has brought ruin on an Arab nation. And Iran's failure to aid her Shia allies in battle with Israel exposes them as something less than heroic Islamic warriors of Tehran's propaganda.

Indeed, the perceived impotence of Iran to aid Hezbollah, while Bush was giving Israel a free hand in Lebanon, may force Iran to show it yet has power to damage U.S. interests. Public denunciations of Israel by the U.S.-backed, Shia-dominated regime in Baghdad may be an indicator of where Iran intends to exact payback.

Syria's Bashar al-Assad seems to be the lone beneficiary of the war, if there are any. Though an accused enabler of Hezbollah, Syria is emerging as the only party that can ensure that rockets from Tehran do not reach Hezbollah through the Bekaa Valley.

If at the time of truce Hezbollah's Katyusha arsenal has been depleted, and the Lebanese Army and a NATO force are to be moved into the border region with Israel, Syria's cooperation in blocking Iran's resupply of Hezbollah is essential. Realizing this, Condi Rice has indicated a willingness to talk with Damascus. The question will then become: What is Syria's price for cooperation?

The answer is apparent. Syria has long sought a reopening of negotiations with Israel on the return of the Golan Heights, and a resolution of the Palestinian question by a return to land for peace.

Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, however, abandoned that road in favor of a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and unwanted parts of the West Bank, and annexation of all the rest, including all of Jerusalem and her distant suburbs. If Israel refuses to discuss the Golan with Syria, or to negotiate with a Palestinian Authority led by Hamas, it is hard to see any negotiated end to this Middle East crisis.

With its devastation of Lebanon, its blockade of the West Bank and Gaza, and its determination to destroy the Palestinian Authority, Israel is creating failed states on three borders. How this serves Israel's or America's interests is difficult to see.

[American Patriot]

U.S. Gives Israel Timeline for Assault on Hezbollah, Official Says
Tuesday, July 25, 2006

www.foxnews.com

NABATIYEH, Lebanon — The United States has given Israeli forces between 10 and 14 days to finish dealing Hezbollah "a strategic blow," a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official told FOX News, as both Israeli forces and Hezbollah guerrillas continued to volley rockets across the Lebanon-Israel border.

While admitting that the Israeli Defense Forces is working at a "slow pace," the official insisted the plan was constructed out of concern for human life.

"We could do it much faster if we would be willing to inflict high civilian casualties," the official said. "The decision was made to move in a methodical, slow way."

Israeli troops sealed off a Hezbollah stronghold and warplanes killed six people in a market city in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, while Beirut was pounded by new airstrikes. Guerrillas fired rockets at northern Israel, killing a girl, as the two-week-old crisis showed no signs of letting up, despite frantic diplomatic efforts.

Journalists covering the conflict were warned Tuesday by Hezbollah in Tyre, Lebanon, not to tape or broadcast live the source of outgoing rocket attacks, for fear of having guerrilla positions discovered by Israeli forces.

At least four heavy blasts were heard in Beirut, the first Israeli strikes in the city in nearly two days. A gray cloud rose from the capital's southern district, a Hezbollah stronghold that has been heavily bombarded. Nearly daily pounding halted during Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit Monday.

(Story continues below)

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Al-Jazeera television said 20 Israeli rockets hit the Dahiyah neighborhood. The Israeli army said it hit 10 buildings housing Hezbollah personnel but did not elaborate.

Outlining the scope of the Israeli campaign for the first time, a senior army commander said Israel would only encircle Lebanese towns and villages near the border and did not plan a deeper push into the country.

"The intention is to deal with the Hezbollah infrastructure that is within reach," Col. Hemi Livni, who commands troops in the western sector of southern Lebanon, told Israel Army Radio. "That means in southern Lebanon, not going beyond that."

President Bush expressed concern for the civilians killed and harmed by Israeli bombs, but stopped short of calling for an immediate cease-fire that might not last.

"I support a sustainable cease-fire that will bring about an end to violence," Bush said.

Rice, in Israel on the second leg of a Middle East tour, maintained the Bush administration's position that a cease-fire must come with conditions that make an enduring peace for the region.

"I have no doubt there are those who wish to strangle a democratic and sovereign Lebanon in its crib," Rice said before meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem. "We, of course, also urgently want to end the violence." (Full story)

The violence looked likely to drag on with tough ground fighting as Israeli forces try to move village to village near the border, facing well-armed, determined Islamic militant guerrillas who have been digging in for years.

The U.S., which is pushing for the deployment of international and Lebanese troops in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah attacks on Israel, has angered many allies with its support of Israel and resistance to calls for an immediate cease-fire to the hostilities that began with a July 12 Hezbollah attack that killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two.

Arabs will insist on an immediate cease-fire and for the Lebanese government to take control over the militant Hezbollah at an international meeting to be held in Rome on Wednesday, Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Illah al-Khatib said.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose nation is a major backer of Hezbollah and a sworn enemy of Israel, said the fighting could trigger "a hurricane" of broader fighting in the Middle East. (Full story)

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung said a cease-fire must be in place before any international troops are sent to Lebanon. Israel has suggested it would accept an international force — preferably from NATO — to ensure the peace in southern Lebanon, but Jung said after meeting his French and Polish counterparts that it was too early to say if the alliance, or a European Union force, could be put in place.

A top Hamas official in Syria said Israeli soldiers held by Hamas and Hezbollah will only be released as part of a prisoner swap.

The official, Mohammad Nazal, also raised the possibility of teaming up with Hezbollah to negotiate terms that would lead to the release of Palestinian and Lebanese prisoners in Israel in exchange for the three Israeli soldiers — two held by Hezbollah and one by Hamas.

About 300 Americans and 100 Russians, meanwhile, were feared stranded in the heart of Lebanon's war zone after a ship evacuating foreign nationals from the area left the hard-hit southern port of Tyre on Monday evening. U.S. officials also said the last scheduled evacuations of Americans from Lebanon would happen Wednesday. (Full story)

At the front Tuesday, an Israeli military official said troops had surrounded Bint Jbail, a town that has symbolic importance to Hezbollah as one of the centers of resistance to the Israeli occupation 1982-2000.

Israeli forces have seized some houses on the outskirts of the hilltop town since beginning the assault Monday, but do not yet control Bint Jbail, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity as a press statement had not been issued.

Up to 200 Hezbollah guerrillas are believed to be defending the town, which lies about 2 1/2 miles north of the Israeli border. Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV reported the fighters were mounting a strong defense against elite Israeli troops who were trying to advance under "heavy bombardment."

In a pre-dawn raid, Israeli warplanes destroyed two neighboring houses in Nabatiyeh, which lies 16 miles north of Bint Jbail and has been heavily bombarded in the past few days.

In one house, a man and his wife and their son were killed, said the couple's daughter, Shireen Hamza, who survived. Three men died in the other house, she said.

While buried under the rubble for 15 minutes, "I just kept screaming, telling my parents to stay alive until help comes," she said. "My father kept saying to me in a weak voice, 'Shireen, stay awake. Don't sleep."'

Security officials said seven people were killed in the blast. But Nabatiyeh Hospital received six bodies from the strike, said Dr. Marwan Ghandour.

At least 70 rockets were fired at northern Israel, and a teenage girl was killed and three other people were injured in the Arab town of Maghar.

One rocket fired at the Israeli port city of Haifa hit a bus, another hit a house and two reportedly struck close to a hospital, injuring five people, witnesses and doctors said. One man died of a heart attack while running to a bomb shelter, Israel Radio said.

Rockets also hit the towns of Kiryat Shemona, Nahariya, Tiberias, Acre and Safed.

Israeli Brig. Gen. Udi Nehushtan also said Israel has destroyed 100-150 rocket launchers, adding that he couldn't say how many of Hezbollah's approximately 12,000 rockets have been destroyed. He also said "dozens" of Hezbollah fighters have been killed.

Mahmoud Komati, the deputy chief of the Hezbollah politburo, told The Associated Press that 25 of its fighters had been killed as of Monday, and the group said two more died in ground fighting Tuesday — raising the previously announced toll of 11.

Despite estimates of the number of Hezbollah militants that Israel claims were killed and the number that Hezbollah asserts were killed, there was no way to accurately determine the number or often distinguish between civilians and fighters.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said 369 civilians have been killed, not including the six people who died in Tuesday's airstrike. Twenty soldiers also have died in the fighting, and the 27 reported Hezbollah deaths brought the total to 422. The increase was due to wounded who died in the hospital.

Israel's death toll stands at 42, including 24 soldiers and 18 civilians, most killed by hundreds of rockets fired by Hezbollah.

Humanitarian efforts continued, and Olmert said Israel will allow the opening of safe passages for transporting aid to all areas of Lebanon.

[American Patriot]

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Special Report: The Israeli Puzzle
By George Friedman

The question that is now most pressing is figuring out exactly what Israel is up to. Hezbollah's strategy is fairly clear-cut: Now that the war has started, it cannot maneuver in the open, for fear of Israeli air power; therefore, it is holding its positions, absorbing the airstrikes and engaging Israeli troops as they approach. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at Israel. The longer it fights and the more resistance it offers, the more of a psychological blow it inflicts on the Israelis and the more it improves its credibility as a fighting force and its influence among groups resisting Israel. In an ideal form, the Israelis would be drawn into Lebanon, forced into an occupation and forced to fight the kind of counterinsurgency in which the United States is now engaged in Iraq.

Israel's stated goal is the destruction of Hezbollah's ability to wage war. This means shutting down Hezbollah's rocket attacks, engaging and destroying deployed forces, destroying Hezbollah's support infrastructure -- and doing this so thoroughly that Hezbollah either will not recover its capabilities or will take years to do so. Israeli forces also must do this without being drawn into an occupation that Hezbollah and others could draw out into an extended counterinsurgency operation. In other words, Israel's goal is to shatter Hezbollah without an extended occupation of Lebanon.

Thus far, Israel's strategy has focused on an air campaign. Supplementing the air campaign has been a substantial mobilization of ground forces and a very shallow insertion of these forces along the southern Lebanese frontier. This is where the mystery begins.

Historically, Israel has tried to fight wars as quickly as possible. There are three reasons for this. First, Israel is casualty-averse and fears wars of attrition. The rapid destruction of enemy forces has always been a principle. Second, large-scale mobilization is extremely expensive for Israel economically. Wars need to end quickly, so as to keep the costs of mobilization low. Third, Israel has a dependency on the United States. An example is its need for additional precision-guided munitions and for jet fuel. The United States normally supports Israel but usually wants to see cease-fires put into place as quickly as possible. Therefore, Israel typically has to end major, conventional combat operations as quickly as possible. In previous wars the Israeli model has been sudden, surprise initiation of war or -- when not possible, as in 1973 -- rapid seizure of the initiative, followed by rapid termination.

But to this point, Israel is fighting a very different war. It essentially has been conducting an extended air campaign without significant engagement on the ground. Now, Israeli commanders, heavily influenced by American thinking, have been attracted to the air option: It holds open the promise of destroying the enemy without exposing Israel's forces to extensive casualties. The war can be conducted in an environment in which air power is immune from defenses.

Historically, the air campaign has been seen as incapable of delivering victory except in concert with a ground campaign. In this particular campaign, Israel clearly has not achieved either of its two objectives. First, rocket fire from Hezbollah has not been suppressed. Israel seems to be having the same problem in this area as the United States had in 1991, with its famous Scud Hunt in Iraq. It could eventually work, but it hasn't yet. Second, the air campaign, from the little we have seen, does not appear to have broken Hezbollah's will to resist. The small-unit combat we have had reported from southern Lebanon describes a capable, motivated resistance that could be absorbing more casualties than the Israelis are, but that has not been defeated.

It is difficult, thus, to envision the air war as the totality of the campaign. If the Israelis have counted on this to be sufficient, it has failed so far. It also is difficult to imagine the Israeli air force having convinced the army that an air campaign by itself would suffice. Therefore, we are drawn to one of two conclusions: Either the main effort will come on the ground but has not yet been launched, or the Israelis envision some diplomatic solution to the problem of Hezbollah. In other words, the air campaign is either preparation for a ground invasion, or it is designed to set the stage for a political settlement.

The Political Option

Let's examine the second possibility. Obviously, there has been a tremendous amount of diplomatic activity going on, not least of which has been U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to the region. There are myriad possibilities, but in the end -- from Israel's point of view -- any settlement must contain the following elements:

1. An end to rocket attacks against Israel and the release of captured Israeli soldiers.
2. Controls over Hezbollah by a third party to assure that Hezbollah would cease to be a threat to Israel.

The first issue can be readily dealt with; the second cannot. First, there is no force that can impose controls on Hezbollah, or that can do so without incurring other consequences. The Lebanese army, even if it had the will, is simply not strong enough to engage and defeat Hezbollah. An outside peacekeeping force -- from Europe, for example -- would not be prepared to engage in direct combat against Hezbollah (or Israel) if either resumed fighting. The assumption that the mere presence of such a force would prevent either party from pursuing their interests assumes that each would fear the consequences of inflicting casualties on the peacekeepers. Since it is not clear that there would be any consequence aside from stern warnings, a third-party buffer would offer no solution for Israel's (or Hezbollah's) security concerns.

There is an assumption that Iran or Syria could simply order Hezbollah to stop the fighting. In our view, this vastly overestimates the political influence of Tehran and Damascus -- or the unity between Iran and Syria. Each has different interests in this fight, the governments are wildly different regimes, and neither has as much trust in the other as might be imagined. Iran is very far away and, though it has covert levers, it has few overt ones. Hezbollah has its own interests in this war -- and though Iran and Syria are enablers, providing the militants with weapons and training, that does not ultimately give them control over Hezbollah. Put it this way: Hezbollah would not be what it is without Syria and Iran, but it does not follow that it is under the control of Syria and Iran. At this point, few if any weapons are getting to the militants anyway. Hezbollah is playing its own game.

One non-Israeli way of controlling Hezbollah is Syria. Syria's army is strong enough to compel Hezbollah to cease fire, and it is in a position to assure compliance. But for that, the army would have to re-enter Lebanon. The United States, concerned about Syria's behavior in Iraq, engaged in maneuvers to force Syria out of Lebanon not too long ago. It is unlikely that the Americans want to see them return. Indeed, Israel, which has quietly collaborated with Syria over Lebanon in the past, might have fewer objections and even a degree of trust in this regard. Certainly, the Israelis do not want to see regime change in Syria, since whatever might succeed Bashar al Assad would be worse, from their point of view. But in the end, relying on Syria to end rocket attacks against Israel would be a tenuous solution at best.

It is therefore difficult to see how diplomacy can produce a solution. Even if Hezbollah is being badly hurt by the air campaign, it is not so bad a beating that it is being crushed. In fact, the diplomatic settlement would give Hezbollah what it has not yet won -- and might not win -- on the battlefield. As for Israel, there is near unanimity in the polls that the Israeli public wants a final resolution of the Hezbollah threat. A solution that would simply postpone such a resolution, such as a cease-fire and a NATO peacekeeping force, would be quickly attacked by Likud -- and we would bet the Olmert government could not survive.

This is a moment when diplomacy cannot provide a resolution that is desirable to either side. Now, it is possible that the Israeli view is that, with extended pounding from the air, Hezbollah will reconsider its position. However, aside from the example of Kosovo -- where Yugoslavia was fighting for what was, in the end, a peripheral interest -- air power simply hasn't forced such a capitulation historically. From what we can see, it isn't producing it this time either.

There is also a public relations shift taking place. In the early days of the air campaign, there was a surprising amount of international support for Israel. As the air campaign wears on and the pictures of civilian casualties beam around the world, that support is deteriorating. Israel is coming under greater political pressure. Shortly, the United States will be experiencing it. As we have said, the United States wants to see Hezbollah crippled. At the same time, the Bush administration is politically weak in the United States and is fighting to recover its balance. An extended Israeli air campaign that is not reaching any recognizable goal will generate pressure inside the United States and might force Washington to pressure Israel to terminate the campaign. Israel will not be able to resist that pressure -- not while it requires re-supply from the United States. Bush, with his poll numbers and increasing problems in Iraq, cannot resist indefinitely either.

Next Moves

Israel is engaged in an air campaign that has not yet achieved its goals, it has mobilized ground forces that are standing by, it is engaged in diplomacy that cannot logically achieve a sustainable end, and it is fighting an enemy that shows every sign of being able to continue to resist -- even after being engaged in air-ground operations. The political window is not closed, but is beginning to close. From Hezbollah's point of view, this can and should go on for a long time. From Israel's point of view, the pressure for war termination is building.

There are three possibilities here:

1. Israel is going to go with the air campaign indefinitely.
2. Israel is going to negotiate a diplomatic solution.
3. Israel is going to wage a ground campaign.

We have explained why the first two options do not appear viable to us. Unless Israel's battle damage assessment of the airstrikes is showing its intelligence people something we can't see from afar, the air campaign is a valuable preparation for a ground war but not a substitute. Unless some sort of strange deal is in the works with Syria, which we doubt, we do not see the shape of a diplomatic settlement. And unless Israel is going to declare victory and just stop, we don't see the war ending. Therefore, our analysis continues to point to a major ground operation.

People we have contacted in Israel keep talking about Israel having some surprises. We already are surprised by the amount of time between the initiation of the air attack and the initiation of a major ground offensive. If the Israelis have more surprises waiting, it will be interesting to see what they are. However, at this point, unless Israel wants to abandon the goal of rendering Hezbollah harmless for an extended period of time, it would seem to us that a massive raid in force, followed by destruction of infrastructure in detail, followed by withdrawal, is the most realistic option remaining.

One other possible explanation for events (and perhaps this is the surprise) is that Israel has been taken aback by Hezbollah's abilities and resilience, and that the Israelis are not certain they can attain their political ends militarily. In other words, the cost of imposing defeat on Hezbollah might be seen as so high, or perhaps unattainable, that the outcome of the war must be something of a stalemate. If that is the case, the balance of power in the region has shifted dramatically and Hezbollah has, in fact, won a victory. Since we do not think Israel will concede that point, we continue to await Israel's move.

We have been told to expect surprises in how Israel does this. We agree fully: We are surprised. We see the Hezbollah plan and it is unfolding -- not as well as it might have hoped, but not that poorly either. We await the Israeli solution to the problem posed by Hezbollah. There will be at least one clear criterion for victory or defeat on both sides. If Hezbollah continues to attack Haifa and other major cities without Israel being able to stop it, or it halts those attacks only after a diplomatic compromise, Hezbollah would have achieved its strategic goal and Israel would have lost. If Israel can end the attacks without making political concessions, Israel would have won. At a certain point, it is as simple as that.
Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

[falcon]

Former Israeli U.N. Ambassador Dore Gold
The Hugh Hewitt Show
37-24-2006 at 04:07 PM

HH: Joined now by Ambassador Dore Gold. He is the former Ambassador of Israel to the United Nations, from 1997-1999. He is now the president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affair, which you've got to make bookmarked, at www.jcpa.org, and a foreign policy advisor to Ariel Sharon, Benjamin Netanyahu, and just a senior Israeli diplomat. Ambassador Gold, welcome.

DG: My pleasure.

HH: Can you give us your assessment, as we close the second week of this war, of conditions currently? What has surprised you? And what do you make of the Rice mission as it unfolds today?

DG: Well, I'll mention two things in terms of current developments. Israel has been very careful about the use of force, perhaps too careful in the opening two weeks of the war. It has relied, initially, on overwhelming air power, which was effective in Kosovo when you had six weeks to operate or more, and you had the full air power of NATO. In a theater of warfare like Lebanon, where much of the Hezbollah capacity is hardened in deep bunkers, air wars take much longer than perhaps originally thought. Israel has also had to deal with the situation whereby Hezbollah is using the civilian population of Lebanon as a shield, particularly in the Shiite area. And in the Shiite areas, you have arrangements on the ground where Hezbollah would build added rooms to houses that they could store missiles in them. This has made the effort of the Israeli Air Force to take out missiles without causing civilian casualties extremely, extremely difficult. As a result of all this, this war is going to take longer than expected, and perhaps that's a bit of a surprise to many Israelis.

HH: Now I've received an e-mail from a veteran of Israel Defense Force, a friend of mine, Yoni Tidi, who runs a blog. This is no way to fight, he says. I can't even call it a war, because it reminds me of a circus. Five soldiers wounded just a few meters from the border overnight. After 12 days of combat, we do not really control one meter of Lebanon. What in the world are the leaders of Israel doing? Do you sense that that is a widespread sentiment, Ambassador Gold?

DG: Well, I think everyone's aware in Israel of the potential strength of the IDF. But we are seeing very small reserve mobilization. We're seeing battalions being called up, not divisions, not even brigades. And therefore, there is a certain amount of frustration among a lot of the experienced military people. There's also been a problem in the past. You know, Israel has had what's called the Lebanon complex. Israelis were very happy to leave Lebanon in the year 2000, when Prime Minister Ehud Barak unilaterally pulled out. And when the war started, you had a lot of politicians saying well, we don't want to go back into the mud, and get stuck in the mud of Lebanon again. But you know, maybe it's better to go in, in overwhelming force, for two, three weeks, get the job done, and get out. And perhaps being cautious is just simply taking this much longer. We're getting the support of the United States. President Bush's administration understands this is not just a war for the security of Israel's north. This is the opening round of a war between Iran and the West, and therefore, if Israel manages to set the stage for the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, that won't only improve Israeli security, but it'll be a major blow to Iran's effort to achieve regional hegemony.

HH: Ambassador Gold, if, in fact, a cease fire is imposed or negotiated, or whatever word, before Hezbollah has been crippled, and say with missiles in Tyre still intact, isn't that a strategic loss for Israel?

DG: Well, I'd prefer to see Israel to be able to completely eliminate the Hezbollah military capacity. Whether we have the time to do that remains a question. I mean, this may take a month, two months. Who knows? But there's a lot of pressure on the Bush administration to bring to bear pressure on Israel to bring this to an end quicker. If there's hope of anybody who can get this done later on, it may be, actually, the forces in Lebanon that want to get rid of Hezbollah. Don't forget, Hezbollah hasn't just affected Israel. It has robbed Lebanon of its independence. It has introduced large amounts of Iranian forces and advisors who come in to strengthen Hezbollah. And it could be, if Secretary Rice manages to put together a coalition of internal politicians in Lebanon who want to see the Hezbollah removed, but they don't have the guts alone to do it, and she puts that together with a force that comes into Lebanon, not to protect Israel's borders...We'll protect ourselves. But to help the Lebanese army dismantle Hezbollah, then we can have a revolutionary change without having to have Israeli forces go up to Beirut.

HH: I agree with that, but do you believe that that's actually what's happening? I see Hosni Mobarek, who's been rather quiet, now calling for an immediate cease fire, the Saudi plan was premised on an immediate cease fire. That opening, that precious opening that may have been given to Israel by even Arab nations to deal with Hezbollah, may be closing. Has the Israeli government blown an opportunity, Dore Gold?

DG: I hope not. I hope that hasn't happened, but I do see a potential, if this is handled right. I'm sure the Bush administration is being presented with two models. One model is to do exactly what I said, that is to work with the forces in Lebanon that want to get rid of Hezbollah, and to wed them up with international forces...I'm talking about forces that have the capacity to fight, that will strengthen the backbone of the Lebanese army. The alternative that they may be hearing about is to let Syria back into the back door of Lebanon, and let Syria create a new order there. That would be a disaster. That would be a roll back from President Bush's great achievement in Lebanon with the cedar revolution, and the beginnings of an Arab democracy there. But I'm sure there are people pushing that line. There are reports this was raised to the administration, and reported in the New York Times today.

HH: Incredibly, Zbiegniew Brzenzski last night on Larry King made the argument that it was a mistake to have routed Syria, and perhaps it ought to be welcomed back. Your reaction, Dore Gold?

DG: Well, there have been two schools of thought in Washington about how to handle the Carter...the regimes of the Arab world. You know, one school of thought, that clearly from what you're saying, Mr. Brzenzski represents, is the idea that the United States should do business with the tough guys, with the brutal dictatorships of the Middle East, and cut deals with them, because they're in power. The alternative view is to say wait a minute, these dictatorships have denied the human rights of millions of people. They eventually, their fall, or host terrorist organizations, which is the case in Syria...don't forget, it was Syria that has allowed Mujahideen to land in Damascus, and take buses to the Iraqi border to join the war against the United States in Iraq. And if you want to support regimes like that, then you're going to have a very violent Middle East for many decades. If you want to bring about peaceful change, I think that's the better way to go.

HH: I'm talking with former...Israel's Ambassador to the U.N., Dore Gold, long-time senior diplomat for Israel, now president of the Jerusalem Center For Public Affairs. You mentioned earlier, Ambassador Gold, the world war with Iran, and I do believe that's the defining factor here that is too little commented on. Over the weekend, it was revealed that President Ahmadinejead has sent letters to Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, Jacques Chirac, President of France. The German government has completely rejected the Ahmadinejead letter, though not revealing its source. Clearly, he has got a strategic plan for the world, that it does not involve Israel, and it involves its destruction. Should Iran be reprimanded by the U.N. for demanding the elimination of a nation member state within the U.N?

DG: That's what should happen. I'll tell you something else. Since he threatens to wipe Israel off the map, and happens to be a Jewish state, he is in violation of the Genocide Convention. You have a lot of people out there who talk about the Genocide Convention in Darfur, and in a variety of conflict areas in Rwanda. Well, here you have a guy, he hasn't done it yet, doesn't have nuclear capacity yet, but he's talking about wiping Israel off the map. And according to the '48 Genocide Conventions, the U.N. document, incitement of genocide is a violation of the Convention. He should be reprimanded, he should be brought before some kind of international court, if not the International Court in the Hague, and then maybe the International Criminal Court. And the man should be indicted.

HH: Do you believe that Iran is serious about taking steps to destroy Israel? If they had weapons of mass destruction, Dore Gold, do you suppose that they would try and supply them to Hezbollah?

DG: I tend to doubt that a country like Iran would supply weapons of mass destruction to a terrorist organization, unless it was in a very unusual fix. However, let's be clear about Iran. If all Iran wanted to do was destroy Israel, then they would put all their defense dollars in weapons systems and have a range, from Iran to Israel. That's a 1,300 kilometer range, Shihab-3 missile. But lo and behold, what we find about Iran, they're developing a Shihab-4 with 2,000 kilometers. They just bought a missile from North Korea called the BM-25, with a 2,500 kilometer range. So they're looking to shoot missiles way beyond Israel, right now into NATO members in Europe, and eventually towards the United States. And we know that, because they're trying to build a space lift capability, which will give them multi-stage rockets that could strike the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. That's what Iran's trying to do. I think their short-term goal is to dominate the Persian Gulf, to use the Shiia minorites in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and elsewhere, to upset the balance of power there, and take over these oil producing areas, and then use their nuclear and missile capabilities to deter NATO action against them.

HH: Last week on this program, Mark Steyn, one of the most prolific writers and trenchant observers of international affairs, argued that perhaps the Arab nations are beginning to awaken, that their real threat has never been Israel, but is the renewal of a dominant Iran, that in fact governs them through terror far more than they've ever been intimidated by Israel. Do you agree that that might be happening, Dore Gold? And doesn't that represent, if it is, a revolutionary development in the Middle East?

DG: I think Mark Steyn is absolutely right. I think that if you look at the data from the Iran-Iraq war that raged from 1980-1988, more Arabs died on the battlefield against Persian soldiers than in any Arab-Israeli battlefield. And now, if what I'm speaking about is implemented, you will have a Iran seeking to build a military presence in Lebanon, if we don't oppose them. You will have a...by the way, based on a Shiite, maybe 50-49% population. You'll have Iran penetrating Iraq, where the Shiia are a firm majority, they have a base for having a clear strength in that country. In Bahrain, you have 80% Shiites, with a Sunni minority ruling them. There's an opportunity there for getting some important Arab countries. And of course, the oil producing areas of Saudi Arabia, known as the Eastern Province, there's a Shiite majority there. They would therefore be able to dismantle Saudi Arabia, and they'd be able to get ahold of its oil fields. That's the real danger that's out there. Israel's an excuse, it's a red herring, it's a distraction. It allows Iran to mobilize Arab opinion on their own behalf, and divert attention away from what they're trying to do.

HH: Now the Shiia are not all behind Iran. Obviously, Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq has been a great force for unification, and for transition to some semblence of democracy there. How strong is the Iranian regime, in your estimate, Ambassador Gold? And can it be toppled short of military means?

DG: Well, let's begin first of all with their penetration of various countries. I mean, I agree with you that Ali Sistani has been a moderate, and he has tried to minimize the influence of Shiia religion on the politics in Iraq. But there's also Muqtada al Sadr, who sees himself as a representative of Hezbollah in Iraq. And if Iran is so determined to acquire regional hegemony, they have huge amounts of petro-dollars, they're willing to put those petro-dollars into selling weapons to their friends, they're giving weapons to their friends, and strengthening their position in countries like Iraq, to undermine Ali Sistani.

HH: Does that mean, then, that this is inevitably going to end up as the confrontation between Sunni and Shiia that many people have long foreseen, and would bode very, very poorly for that part of the wo

DG: Well, what I think that the Iranian strategy had been...the Iranians recognize that the Shiia are a minority in the Islamic world. The total number of Shiia in the whole Islamic world are maybe 15%. A majority, 85%, are Sunnis. So they will try and reach across the divide to the Sunnis, and get as many of the Sunni countries on their side. Right now, they have had very limited success. Syria is a country with a 60% Sunni majority, and they're backing Iran, largely through the Alawite sect, which has good relations with the Shiites. But there is a rift here, there is a potential conflict here, and Israel is really a backdrop to a much bigger struggle over oil and dominance in the Middle East.[/b]

HH: Now it's late in Israel, but I do want to cover three more subjects with you, Mr. Ambassador. The first is the Lebanon government, and the various conflicting statements coming out of there. You've proposed a hopeful vision that perhaps Lebanon, through this process, becomes strengthened, gets steel, gets assistance to drive Hezbollah from its number. What is the prime minister saying? What about the speaker of the parliament? How do you translate what is being said publicly from the Lebanese officials?

DG: Well, I mean there are leaders, like Jumblatt of the Druse. You do also have Hariri's son, who has the...his coalition in the Lebanese Parliament, and these people have spoken out against Hezbollah. Now what careful diplomacy requires is to focus on those forces inside of Lebanese society who want to get rid of Hezbollah. We're not talking about 52 or 53%. We're probably talking about 80% of Lebanese public. So smart diplomacy, directed, with the backing of Arab states, and armed peace enforcement units, perhaps from Europe, like the French, could tilt the balance inside of Lebanon. You tilt the balance inside of Lebanon against Hezbollah, you solve a lot of problems at once. You strengthen democracy and Israel's security problem in the south of Lebanon/Northern Israel vanishes.

HH: Can you count on France, or other EU countries, to be tough enough, Ambassador Gold? Would they actually shoot with real rounds at Hezbollah? Or will they become an impediment to Israel striking back when necessary against it?

DG: Well, I am not a believer that the peace enforcing force should be on Israel's border. I don't want people protecting Israel. I don't want them to become a shield for Hezbollah. I would rather see that these European forces strengthen the only army in Lebanon that is going to open fire on Hezbollah. It's the Lebanese army. But they'll only do it if they have the full backing of Europeans, Arab states, with America orchestrating this whole move.

HH: All right.Penultimate question. The Wye River negotiations of which you were a participant. Take us back to 1998, if you will. Was the Islamist threat, was the Iranian gambit, were these subjects on the table in those negotiations? Or...they're only eight years ago. But was it foreseen at that time?

DG: There are two parts...there have been two models in Middle East policy in Washington and Jerusalem as well. Some people have said solve the problem with the Palestinians, and everything else will vanish and go away. I think that was a very widely accepted assumption at the time of the Clinton administration. Some of us who were looking at the intelligence at the time saw the wider trends, saw al Qaeda rising, we saw Hezbollah getting stronger, and we felt that somebody's missing the boat. There's a wider conflict here, and Israel's just a small piece in a much bigger puzzle.

HH: Is the Bush administration realistic about what's happening there, and not falling into that old trap?

DG: I think they've been very good in understanding there's a wider conflict here, because we're in a post 9/11 reality. But there are a lot of professionals out there who criticize them, who write op-eds against them, and it's hard to stay strong, and go up against the old, conventional wisdom.

HH: Last subject, which is Israeli politics and the West Bank. Do you see unilateral disengagement happening anytime soon now?

DG: I think another unilateral disengagement is not in the cards. I think if anything, the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza has shown that unilateralism, no matter how much sense it might have made in an Israeli internal debate. It's just seen as total weakness. It strengthens the terrorists, it brings to power Hamas, and it gives Hezbollah the belief that they can even defeat Israel. What's important in the future is to recognize that Israel must hold onto what is vital for its security. President Bush wrote a letter to Prime Minister Sharon in 2004, guaranteeing that Israel at the end of the day will achieve defensible borders. In fact, on our website, www.jcpa.org, we have a major study on this subject of defensible borders that we put up, and it has been distributed to people in Congress, and public opinion makers as well in Europe. And I think that's the key to peace. An Israel that can defend itself will stay stable and secure. An Israel that's vulnerable will be taken advantage of by our enemies.

HH: This is the first crisis, Dore Gold, in which Israel has found itself without someone at the helm who has got the memory that a Sharon did going back to the very beginning of the state. Does this young government strike you as strong enough and experienced enough to last and to lead effectively?

DG: Well, you know, right now, we're all trying to unite around the proud leadership of Prime Minister Olmert. I did not vote for Mr. Olmert, but I'm not going to second-guess him in the middle of a war. When this is over, we'll sit back, we'll look at who was smart, who made mistakes, and the political system will respond. But at this point, you've got to get behind the government of Israel, let them win this war quickly, and create a more stable Middle East, because we have much bigger problems ahead of us.

HH: And a last question. Can any settlement be achieved without the prompt return of the two soldiers kidnapped in the North, and the one in the South?

DG: Israel will struggle, will fight to get its soldiers returned. That isn't why the war is occurring. It is one of the conditions for ending it. The real...what turned this into a major conflict was the nerve of Hezbollah to open fire on Israeli cities. That is unacceptable. We have to change the situation fundamentally, so this never happens again.

HH: I have to ask one more, then it will be the last. 2,200, 2,400 rockets have rallen on Israel. Is there panic? Is there concern? What is the mood there, Dore Gold?

DG: Israel's a country with many families that have children in the army, fathers in the army. We have experience in past wars. People know what to do. There's a lot of physical hardships. A lot of people had to close down businesses, people who can't maintain a cash flow. And how do they survive? There are people who are in shelters where the air conditioners were never fixed, and it's hot as hell. It's summertime now, you know, end of July. These are elements that are difficult for Israelis, but I'll tell you something. The country is strong, the country wants this war to be won. We had some demonstrations against the war. They were organized by the Israeli Communist Party, with hammer and sickle and all, but the vast majority of the country wants to win.

HH: Ambassador Dore Gold from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, www.jcpa.org, thanks for spending so much time with us late this evening. I look forward to talking with you again soon.

DG: My pleasure.

HH: Thank you.


hughhewitt.townhall.com/Transcript_Page.aspx?ContentGuid=4909f2fa-d59b-497d-b1ea-3d7a8097571f News, Views and More

[BigTex]

Fox is reporting One of Top Three Hezbollah Leaders Killed in Southern Lebanon.

Hope we dont stick with telling Isreal that they need to finish this up in 10 to 14 days.

[Joey Bagadonuts]

Wow, this is interesting!

OPINIONJOURNAL.COM, an opinion journal from the Wall street Journal's editorial page, has an article that a sharp-eyed TV viewer watching last nights NBC Nightly News may have uncovered a Hezbollah counterfeiting operation that was making phony US money! Read the story! Those sure look like sheets with Benjamin Franklins pic on it to me.

PS: If you want to watch the actual NBC news broadcast, you'll need to watch it on Internet Explorer. Here's the link for the story, then the link for the video at the bottom.

================================================== ==========


http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110008703


Funny Money?

A reader noticed something curious in a video from last night's "NBC Nightly News." Richard Engel, the network's Beirut bureau chief, is reporting from southern Lebanon, and at 1:07 in the video, as he's saying, "In Sidon, we found part of the financial district flattened," you briefly see an image of what look like uncut sheets of U.S. hundred-dollar bills.

Now, it's possible to buy uncut sheets from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, at premiums ranging from 12.5% to 275% over face value--but apparently only in denominations of up to $50. Anyhow, somehow we doubt these were collectibles.

A Treasury Department press release dated June 10, 2004, reports that Hezbollah has been involved in counterfeiting American money:

One of the most prominent and influential members of the Hizballah terrorist organization, along with two of his companies, was designated by the Treasury Department today under Executive Order 13224. Assad Ahmad Barakat has close ties with Hizballah leadership and has worked closely with numerous Islamic extremists and suspected Hizballah associates in South America's tri-border area (TBA), made up of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. . . .

Barakat has also been involved in a counterfeiting ring that distributes fake U.S. dollars and generates cash to fund Hizballah operations. As of early 2001, Barakat was one of two individuals reportedly in charge of distribution and sale of the counterfeit currency in the TBA.

Was this funny money in Engel's report from Sidon? We don't know, but it'd be a good question for him to investigate.


http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?...D&f=00&fg=copy

[American Patriot]

Remember What Happened Here! [Israel] by Charles Krauthammer
http://www.gamla.org.il/english/arti...06/july/g1.htm ^

In 2005 the Palestinians were given Gaza, free of any Jews. Do they begin building the state they say they want, constructing schools and roads and hospitals? No. They launch rockets at civilians and dig a 300-yard tunnel under the border to attack Israeli soldiers and bring back a hostage.

And this time the terrorism is carried out not by some shadowy group that the Palestinian leader can disavow, however disingenuously. This is Hamas in action--the group that was recently elected to lead the Palestinians. At least there is now truth in advertising: a Palestinian government openly committed to terrorism and to the destruction of a member state of the U.N. openly uses terrorism to carry on its war.

That is no cycle. That is an arrow. That is action with a purpose. The action began 59 years ago when the U.N. voted to solve the Palestine conundrum then ruled by Britain by creating a Jewish state and a Palestinian state side by side. The Jews accepted the compromise; the Palestinians rejected it and joined five outside Arab countries in a war to destroy the Jewish state and take all the territory for themselves.

They failed, and Israel survived. That remains, in the Palestinian view, Israel's original sin, the foundational crime for the cycle: Israel's survival. That's the reason for the rockets, for the tunneling, for the kidnapping--and for Israel's current response.

If that history is too ancient, consider the history of the past 12 months. Gaza is free of occupation, yet Gaza wages war. Why? Because this war is not about occupation, but about Israel's very existence. The so-called cycle will continue until the arrow is abandoned and the Palestinians accept a compromise--or until the arrow finds its mark and Israel dies.

(Excerpt) Read more at gamla.org.il ...

[Ryan Ruck]

Syria Will Join Conflict If Israeli Troops Approach

MADRID, July 23 (Reuters) - Syria will enter the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict if Israeli ground troops enter Lebanon and approach Syria, Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said in an interview published on Sunday.

"If Israel invades Lebanon over ground and comes near to us, Syria will not sit tight. She will join the conflict," he told newspaper ABC.

[American Patriot]

A response to those who call Jews terrorists from a Jew in Israel.
A Jew in Israel (e-mail) ^ | 26 July 2006 | A Jew in Israel

Dear World,

I understand that you are upset by us, here in Israel. Indeed, it appears that you are quite upset, even angry.

(Outraged?) Indeed, every few years you seem to become upset by us. Today, it is the "brutal repression of the Palestinians"; yesterday it was Lebanon; before that it was the bombing of the nuclear reactor in Baghdad and the Yom Kippur War and the Sinai campaign. It appears that Jews who triumph and who, therefore, live, upset you most extraordinarily.

Of course, dear world, long before there was an Israel, we - the Jewish people - must have upset you.

We apparently upset a German people who elected Hitler and upset an Austrian people who cheered his entry into Vienna and we upset a whole slew of Slavic nations - Poles, Slovaks, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Russians, Hungarians and Romanians.

And we go back a long, long way in the history of world upset. We upset the Cossacks of Chmielnicki who massacred us in 1648-49; we upset the Crusaders who, on their way to liberate the Holy Land, were so upset at Jews that they slaughtered untold numbers of us.

For centuries, we upset a Roman Catholic Church that did its best to define our relationship through inquisitions, and we upset the arch-enemy of the church, Martin Luther, who, in his call to burn the synagogues and the Jews within them, showed an admirable Christian ecumenical spirit.

And it is because we became so upset over upsetting you, dear world, that we decided to leave you - in a manner of speaking - and we supported the establishment of a Jewish state. The reasoning was that living in close contact with you, as resident-strangers in the various countries that comprise you, we upset you, irritate you and disturb you. What better notion, then, than to leave you (and thus love you)- and possibly have you love us and so, we decided to come home - home to the same land from which we were driven out 1,900 years earlier by a Roman world that, apparently, we also upset.

Alas, dear world, it appears that you are hard to please. Having left you and your pogroms and inquisitions and crusades and holocausts, having taken our leave of the general world to live alone in our own little state, we continue to upset you. You are upset that we repress the poor Palestinians. You are deeply angered over the fact that we do not give up the lands of 1967, which are clearly the obstacle to peace in the Middle East.

Moscow is upset and Washington is upset. The "radical" Arabs are upset and the gentle Egyptian moderates are upset.

Well, dear world, consider the reaction of a normal Jew from Israel. In 1920 and 1921 and 1929, there were no territories of 1967 to impede peace between Jews and Arabs. Indeed, there was no Jewish State to upset anybody. Nevertheless, the same oppressed and repressed "Palestinians" (technically since Palestine didn't exist before 1948 there were no Palestinians prior to 1948, but that's another story) slaughtered tens of Jews in Jerusalem, Jaffa, Safed and Hebron. Indeed, 67 Jews were slaughtered one day in Hebron in 1929.

Dear world, why did the Arabs - the "Palestinians" - massacre 67 Jews in one day in 1929? Could it have been their anger over Israeli aggression in 1967? And why were 510 Jewish men, women and children slaughtered in Arab riots between 1936-39? Was it because Arabs were upset over 1967? And when you, dear world, proposed a UN Partition Plan in 1947 that would have created a "Palestinian State" alongside a tiny Israel and the Arabs cried "no" and went to war and killed 6,000 Jews - was that "upset" caused by the aggression of 1967?

And, by the way, dear world, why did we not hear your cry of "upset" then?

The poor Palestinians who today kill Jews with explosives and firebombs and stones are part of the same people who - when they had all the territories they now demand be given to them for their state - attempted to drive the Jewish state into the sea. The same twisted faces, the same hate, the same cry of "itbach-al- yahud" (Massacre the Jew!) that we hear and see today, were seen and heard then. The same people, the same dream - destroy Israel. What they failed to do yesterday, they dream of doing today, but we should not "repress" them.

Dear world, you stood by during the holocaust and you stood by in 1948 as seven states launched a war that the Arab League proudly compared to the Mongol massacres. You stood by in 1967 as Nasser, wildly cheered by wild mobs in every Arab capital in the world, vowed to drive the Jews into the sea. And you would stand by tomorrow if Israel were facing extinction.

And since we know that the Arabs and Palestinians dream daily of that extinction, we will do everything possible to remain alive in our own land. If that bothers you, dear world, well - think of how many times in the past you bothered us.

In any event, dear world, if you are bothered by us, here is one Jew in Israel who could not care less.

[American Patriot]

Lebanese President: I Support Hizbullah
Arutz Sheva ^ | July 26, 2006

Lebanese President Emil Lahoud said today that he supports the Hizbullah terrorist organization.

"I support the Hizbullah because they liberated our land," Lahoud said, adding that the Lebanese army does not have the wherewithal to confront the IDF, but that it will defend Lebanon as much as it can.

Hizbullah is a part of the current Lebanese government, with one of its members serving as Lebanon's minister of energy. Lahoud is widely regarded by Lebanese citizens as a Syrian agent in the country's regime.

[American Patriot]

Al-Qaida calls for holy war against Israel
AP ^ | 07/27/06 | WILLA THAYER

Al-Qaida calls for holy war against Israel

By WILLA THAYER, Associated Press Writer 21 minutes ago

Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq."

In the message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahri, second in command to Osama bin Laden, said that al-Qaida now views "all the world as a battlefield open in front of us."

The Egyptian-born physician said that the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and Palestinian militants would not be ended with "cease-fires or agreements."

"It is a jihad (holy war) for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere." Spain was controlled by Arab Muslims for more than seven centuries until they were driven from power in 1492.

He said Arab regimes were accomplices to Israel. "My fellow Muslims, it is obvious that Arab and Islamic governments are not only impotent but also complicit ... and you are alone on the battlefield. Rely on God and fight your enemies ... make yourselves martyrs."

He also called for the "downtrodden" throughout the world, not just Muslims, to join the battle against "tyrannical Western civilization and its leader, America."

"Stand with Muslims in confronting this unprecedented oppression and tyranny. Stand with us as we stand with you against this injustice that was forbidden by God in his book (the Quran)," al-Zawahri said.

Kamal Habib, a former member of Egypt's Islamic Jihad militant group who was jailed from 1981 to 1991 along with al-Zawahri, said the al-Qaida No. 2's outreach to Shiites and non-Muslims was unprecedented and reflected a major change in tactics.

"This is a transformation in the vision of al-Qaida and its struggle with the United States. It is now trying to unite Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims and calling for non-Muslims to join the fight," he said.

Al-Zawahri wore a gray robe and white turban in the video. A picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with photos of two other militants. One appeared to be a bearded Mohamed Atta, the Egyptian ringleader of the Sept. 11 attacks. The other was Mohammed Atef, also known as Abu Hafs al-Masri, a former top lieutenant of bin Laden who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan in November 2001.

The Arab satellite station did not transmit the entire tape, using instead selected quotes interspersed with commentary from an anchor.

An Al-Jazeera official speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters said the full tape was about eight minutes long. The satellite channel aired only about half the message. It would not say how it received the tape.

"The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli (weapons), but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price," al-Zawahri said.

"We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated," he added.

The message was al-Zawahri's 10th this year. Bin Laden has issued five messages in a particularly active year of messages from the top al-Qaida leadership.

Al-Zawahri last appeared in a video posted on an Islamic Web site on the first anniversary of the train bombings in London. In the July 7 tape, he said two of the four suicide bombers in London had spent time in an al-Qaida training camp, preparing themselves for a suicide mission.

The two top al-Qaida leaders also paid tribute in June to the slain leader of their Iraq network, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in separate recordings. Many of their messages this year have dealt with current events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.

Another new audio or video message from bin Laden had also expected in the past week on the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, according to IntelCenter, a U.S.-based independent group that provides counterterrorism information to the U.S. government and media. However, no messages have appeared on Islamic Web sites to announce the release.

Al-Zawahri said Muslims everywhere must rise up to attack "crusaders and Zionists" and support jihad "until American troops are chased from Afghanistan and Iraq, paralyzed and impotent ... having paid the price for aggression against Muslims and support for Israel."

Israel began an offensive on Gaza days after Palestinian militants captured an Israeli soldier on June 25. It opened a second front in Lebanon after Hezbollah guerillas killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two others on July 12.

[American Patriot]

Beckett protest at weapons flight(UK protests over US weapons flight to Israel)
BBC.com ^


British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett has protested to the US about its use of Prestwick Airport in western Scotland to transport bombs to Israel.SNP leader Alex Salmond claimed the UK government must decide whether to "be an aircraft carrier" for the US.

The Lib Dems suggested the Americans were taking the UK for granted.Mr Salmond said that "with an escalating Middle East conflict", it was ill-advised to send bombs "to arm one side in that conflict to the teeth, at a time when hundreds of civilians, many children, United Nations observers, have already been eliminated, killed, by similar weapons"."If these reports are true, it is particularly provocative for the United States to have acted in this way," he said.

"It can only reinforce the belief of many that Britain is taken for granted in the so-called special relationship.

"Who knows how many of these munitions may be used to cause the kind of damage to Lebanon which the prime minister of that country described in Rome as cutting his country to pieces."

(Excerpt) Read more at news.bbc.co.uk ...

[American Patriot]

Al-Qaida's No. 2 Leader Warns Israelis
Myway News ^ | 27-Jul-06 | WILLA THAYER


Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader warned in a new videotape released Thursday that the terrorist group would not stand idly by while Israeli bombardments "burn our brothers" in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

In the message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahri, second in command to Osama bin Laden, said that al-Qaida now saw "all the world as a battlefield open in front of us."

The Egyptian-born physician said the Hezbollah and Palestinian battles against Israel would not be ended with "cease-fires or agreements." The fighting began last month following a Palestinian cross-border raid in which an Israeli soldier was captured, then expanded to Lebanon after Hezbollah militants captured two other soldiers in a raid earlier this month.

"The war with Israel does not depend on cease-fires. ... It is a Jihad for God's sake and will last until (our) religion prevails," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere."

Al-Zawahri wore a gray robe and white turban. A picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with pictures of two other militants.

(Excerpt) Read more at apnews.myway.com ...

[American Patriot]

Iran students leave for Lebanon to fight Israel
Gulf Times ^ | 7/27/2006

TEHRAN: A group of Iranian students left for Lebanon yesterday pledging to help Hezbollah fight Israeli forces there, witnesses said.

Iranian hardliners have made great public show of recruiting volunteers for “martyrdom-seeking operations” in recent years, but there is no record of any of these Iranian volunteers taking part in attacks in Iraq, or against Israel.

“The Prophet Muhammad’s army is on its way to fight against the Zionists,” chanted some 50 volunteers at Tehran’s Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, where a large tree-lined area is dedicated to Iran’s ‘martyrs’ killed in the 1980-88 war with Iraq.

“A group of 200 volunteer students will be dispatched to Lebanon via Turkey. We are leaving Tehran today by bus,” said Amir Jalili, a spokesman for the group.

“We hope Turkey will let us pass the border and go to Syria. If not we will come back to Tehran.”

Iran is a sworn enemy of Israel and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for the Jewish state to be “wiped off the map”. But while Israel accuses Iran of arming Hezbollah, Tehran says it only gives the Lebanese group moral support.

The volunteers stressed theirs was a private initiative, not backed by state authorities. The group, calling itself the Justice-Seeking Movement of Students, said they had no military training. Some 50 students boarded buses from Tehran, but more were to join them from other cities at the border, they said.

Iranian officials have repeatedly said such groups have no official sanction and say they can operate only “as long as their ideas are limited to theory.”

“We are an independent group. We want to help our Shia brothers,” said Hadi, a 23-year-old French literature student, carrying pictures of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who has vowed to take the war deeper into Israel.

“We want to fulfil our religious duty. If officials ban us from going to Lebanon, we will obey,” said another spokesman Morteza Assadi before getting on the bus to go to the border.

Members of the hardline Basij militia at the cemetery said they had no intention of taking action against Israel without the green light from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has the last word on all matters in Iran.

“It is our religious duty to help our Muslim brothers. But we need our leader’s approval first,” said Mohamed, a Basij militiaman witnessing the gathering.

Although Iran did fund and support Lebanese Hezbollah during the 1980s, Tehran insists that it has not contributed troops or weapons in the latest violence. Israel rejects this, arguing Iranian armaments have been fired against it. - Reuters

[American Patriot]

Al-Qaida calls for holy war against Israel
Associated Press ^ | WILLA THAYER

CAIRO, Egypt - Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call in a new videotape released Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq."

In the message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahri, second in command to Osama bin Laden, said that al-Qaida now views "all the world as a battlefield open in front of us."

The Egyptian-born physician said that the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and Palestinian militants would not be ended with "cease-fires or agreements."

"It is a Jihad for the sake of God and will last until (our) religion prevails ... from Spain to Iraq," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere." Spain was controlled by Arab Muslims until they were driven from power at the turn of the 16th century.

He also said that Arab regimes were complicit in Israeli fighting against Hezbollah and the Palestinians. "My fellow Muslims, it is obvious that Arab and Islamic governments are not only impotent but also complicit ... and you are alone on the battlefield. Rely on God and fight your enemies ... make yourselves martyrs."

Al-Zawahri wore a gray robe and white turban in the video. A picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with photos of two other militants. One appeared to be a bearded Mohammed Atta, the Egyptian ringleader of the Sept. 11 attacks. The other was Mohammed Atef, also known as Abu Hafs al-Masri, a former top lieutenant of bin Laden who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan in November 2001.

The Arab satellite station did not transmit the entire tape, using instead selected quotes interspersed with commentary from an anchor.

An Al-Jazeera official speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters said the full tape was about eight mintues long. The satellite channel aired only about half the message. It would not say how it received the tape.

"The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli (weapons), but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price," al-Zawahri said.

"We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated," he added.

The message was al-Zawahri's tenth this year. Bin Laden has issued five messages in a particularly active year of messages from the top al-Qaida leadership.

Al-Zawahri last appeared in a video posted on an Islamic Web site on the one-year anniversary of the train bombings in London. In the July 7 tape, he said two of the four suicide bombers in London had spent time in an al-Qaida training camp, preparing themselves for a suicide mission.

The two top al-Qaida leaders also paid tribute in June to the slain leader of their Iraq network, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in separate recordings. Many of their messages this year have dealt with current events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.

Another new audio or video message from bin Laden had also expected in the past week on the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, according to IntelCenter, a U.S.-based independent group that provides counterterrorism information to the U.S. government and media. However, no messages have appeared on Islamic Web sites to announce the release.

Al-Qaida's media production wing, Al-Sahab, had announced the al-Zawahri tape would be ready soon in a message earlier Thursday on an Islamic Web site.

Al-Zawahri said Muslims everywhere must rise up to attack "crusaders and Zionists" and support jihad (holy war) "until American troops are chased from Afghanistan and Iraq, paralyzed and impotent ... having paid the price for aggression against Muslims and support for Israel."

Israel began an offensive on Gaza days after Palestinian militants captured an Israeli soldier on June 25. It opened a second front in Lebanon after Hezbollah guerillas killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two others on July 12.

Since fighting began between Israel and Hezbollah, at least 424 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to figures compiled from the Lebanese Health Ministry, the military and Hezbollah. Fifty-one Israelis have been killed, including 33 members of the military, according to Israeli authorities.

[American Patriot]

Hezbollah Invading U.S. From Mexico
newsmax.com ^ | 7/27/06 | unknown

"We've had Hezbollah agents that came across the border with Mexico," Jerome Corsi, co-author of "Minutemen: The Battle to Secure America's Borders", told Sean Hannity during an appearance Wednesday night on Fox News Hannity & Colmes.

Appearing with co-author and Minuteman co-founder Jim Gilchrist, Corsi agreed with Hannity that border security is important for national security because Hezbollah terrorists could be coming across the border with weapons of mass destruction.

[American Patriot]

Israel 'using chemical weapons'

From correspondents in Beirut
27-07-2006

From: Reuters

LEBANON is investigating reports from doctors that Israel has used weapons in its 15-day-old bombardment of southern Lebanon that have caused wounds they have never seen before. "We are sending off samples tomorrow, but we have no confirmation yet that illegal weapons have been used," Health Minister Mohammed Khalife said.

The Israeli army said it had used only conventional weapons and ammunition in attacks aimed at Hezbollah guerrillas and nothing contravening international law.

Blackened bodies have been showing up at hospitals in southern Lebanon two weeks into the war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas that has seen at least 418 people, mostly civilians, killed in Lebanon and at least 42 Israelis.

Killed by Israeli air raids, the Lebanese dead are charred in a way local doctors, who have lived through years of civil war and Israeli occupation, say they have not seen before.

Bachir Cham, a Belgian-Lebanese doctor at the Southern Medical Centre in Sidon, received eight bodies after an Israeli air raid on nearby Rmeili which he said exhibited such wounds.

He has taken 24 samples from the bodies to test what killed them. He believes it is a chemical.

Dr Cham said the bodies of some victims were "black as shoes, so they are definitely using chemical weapons. They are all black but their hair and skin is intact so they are not really burnt. It is something else".

"If you burnt someone with petrol their hair would burn and their skin would burn down to the bone. The Israelis are 100 per cent using chemical weapons."

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud has repeatedly accused Israel of using phosphorus bombs in its offensive.

Human Rights Watch, which has accused the Israeli army of using cluster bombs in populated areas of southern Lebanon, said it had not verified claims that Israel had used phosphorus.

"We are investigating but we haven't confirmed anything yet. We have seen phosphorus used before and we have seen it in the artillery stocks of the Israeli army in the north," said Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director at Human Rights Watch.

"Phosphorus shells do have a legitimate use in illuminating the battlefield at night. The offensive use of phosphorus would be a violation of international conventions."

Television footage shows some bodies, such as those of 20 civilians killed when an Israeli missile hit the van in which they were fleeing the border village of Marwaheen, blackened in the way Dr Cham describes. No one knows what killed them.

"We are seeing abnormal burns, different from wars we've seen in the past. The corpses of these victims are shrinking to half their normal size. You think it is the corpse of a child at first but it turns out to be a grown man," said Raed Salman Zeinedine, director of Tyre Government Hospital.

"We've never seen anything like it but what the causes are I don't want to speculate. We have no scientific answer."

The Israel Army said it did not target civilians at all.

"We use only weapons and ammunition which will best hit our targets and cause least collateral damage," said army spokesman Captain Jacob Dallal.

"It could be that a body is burned from fire or the force of an explosion, but between that and suggesting we do something illegal under international law are two different things."