Israeli-Arab War

[falcon]

Israeli Army in Race against a UN Ceasefire in Lebanon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Report
August 12, 2006, 3:52 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli forces are pressing forward with the wide-scale operation against Hizballah which DEBKAfile reports was launched four days ago on Wednesday, Aug. 8.
The campaign will continue until the ceasefire called for in Security Resolution 1701 approved Friday, Aug. 11, is enforced on the ground – if and when that happens.
It is carried forward by four expanded divisions of 11 brigades, about 12,000 fighting men. Head of the Ground Forces Branch Maj.-Gen Benny Gantz is leading the IDF’s South Lebanon command.
The first stage of the new operation has succeeded in its objective of encircling Hizballah’s 1,500-strong force in a large swathe stretching from the Litani River in the north, to Tyre in the southwest.
This tactic follows Israel’s 1982 Lebanon War stratagem of pushing Palestinian forces out of South Lebanon up to Beirut and then holding them to siege.
Now, Israeli troops are pushing Hizballah into the Tyre enclave that also encompasses the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiya and Bourj al-Shamali, in order to contain it there. In central and northern Lebanon, Hizballah strength will be left intact with two of its three rocket brigades - medium and long range - for the time being. They will be left to the Air Force to destroy.
In the last few hours, Hizballah’s command and control in the south is showing signs of distress after finding itself cut off from reinforcements and re-supply from the north by the rapid Israeli advances of the last four days.
DEBKAfile’s military sources update Israel military movements:
The Northern Division: From Wednesday, this division has been advancing north from Israel’s northernmost town of Metulla towards the plain of Nabatea, north of the Litani River, taking the town of Marjayun en route. Early Friday Aug. 11, when Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and defense minister Amir Peretz gave the go ahead for the expanded offensive, the division split in two. One headed north and entered the village of Blat east of the crook in the Litani River – a vantage point for artillery control of the Nabatean plain to the west, and Hasbaya to the east.
The second segment of the Northern Division has been positioned since Thursday on the southern bank of the Litani after capturing Qantara.
For the moment, this division is positioned on a number of hilltops along the river bank with fire control over parts of the Nabatea plain.
Saturday or Sunday morning, these troops should reach the Hardaleh bridge, one of the two linking central Lebanon to the south.
In this part of the front, Israeli troops are fighting Hizballa’s Sector No. 5.
Our military sources report that the Northern Division has encountered little Hizballah resistance in its push north. They are estimated to have gone to ground to await their moment to counter-attack. Local inhabitants in this area are friendly, some even point Israeli troops to possible Hizballah hideouts and arms caches.
Division 162: Since Wednesday, this division under the command of Brig.-Gen Guy Tsur, has been driving north along the eastern bank of Wadi Saluki in the Eastern Sector of South Lebanon up to the Central Sector. Saturday, this division fetched up at Froun village on a hilltop opposite the Litani and west of Taibe and Deir Mimas. This high point affords the division fire control of the Qeaqea bridge, the second most important one spanning the Litani.
The bridge was destroyed by an Israeli air strike at the outset of the war.
This division is fighting Hizballah’s Sectors 3 and 4.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the division commanded by Tsur is now following a westerly route along the Litani’s southern bank up to the Mediterranean coast and a place called Burj el Haoua, which is midway between Sidon and Tyre south of Beirut.
Once in position there, the IDF will be able:
1. To tighten the siege of Tyre from the north.
2. Be ready to cross the Litani and head north of the river if ordered to do so.
Division 91: Under the command of Brig. Gen Gal Hirsch, this division has also been in motion since Wednesday heading west to the Mediterranean coast from a point north of Bin Jubeil. The members of this division fought heavy battles at Ras Baida north of the Israeli town of Rosh Hanikra, and at the villages of Shmaa, Majdel Zun and Mansura south of Tyre. By Saturday morning, this division had managed to stabilize a line south of Tyre from a point north of Bin Jubeil up to Ras Baida, thereby completing the siege of Tyre from the south.
A fourth division operating mostly undercover with special operations units took control Friday and Saturday of sections of the dividing seam between Divisions 162 and 91. This gap covers the war arenas of Qana village, Jouiya and Maarake. This division has been entrusted with tightening the eastern section of the siege enclosing Tyre and preventing Hizballah harassing the flanks and rear of the two divisions.
Late last week, Hassan Nasrallah managed to rush several hundreds of fighters of his Bader Force to reinforce this arena.
DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report that this broad IDF campaign is planned to proceed over the weekend and early next week, on the assumption that Washington and the United Nations will step in at some early point and threaten to declare Israel in violation of the ceasefire resolution until it is stopped.




http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1200

[Aplomb]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/749914.html

One dead, 9 hurt in Hezbollah rocket attacks Sunday

24 IDF soldiers killed Saturday in south Lebanon

By Amos Harel, Yoav Stern and Eli Ashkenazi, Haaretz Correspondents, and Agencies

Hezbollah rocket crews and IAF warplanes carried out wide attacks Sunday morning, a day after 24 Israel Defense Forces soldiers were killed and another 11 seriously wounded in heavy clashes Saturday with Hezbollah forces in south Lebanon, the heaviest one-day Israeli casualty toll of the war. The casualties followed a dramatic expansion of IDF ground operations over the weekend. At least 20 huge explosions rattled Beirut over a two minute period Sunday afternoon, in what appeared to be shelling of south Beirut by Israeli warships anchored off the Lebanese coast. Television reports said the shells fell in the Dahiyeh suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold that has been pounded repeatedly by Israeli warplanes and ships. On Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired a number of heavy rocket barrages into northern Israel, killing one person and wounding at least nine. Israeli warplanes fired missiles into gasoline stations in the southern port city of Tyre on Sunday, and killed at least seven people in other attacks, The Associated Press reported. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Israeli and Lebanese leaders had agreed to a ceasefire from Monday and the United Nations was preparing to deploy up to 15,000 troops to help enforce the truce. IDF casualties in fighting on Saturday included five air crewmen killed when their an Israel Air Force helicopter was shot down by Hezbollah fire late Saturday, the IDF said. Hezbollah said the helicopter was struck by an anti-tank missile. The names of all but one of the IDF fatalities have been released. Corporal Ya`ar Ben Giat, 19, of Kibbutz Nahsholim is to be buried at 6.30 P.M. Sunday at the kibbutz' cemetery; Staff Sergeant Tzachi Krips, 20, of Kibbutz Hama'apil is to be buried at 6.30 P.M. Sunday at the kibbutz' cemetery. Details of the funerals of the other soldiers are expected to be released later in the day. Under cover of intense artillery fire, IDF forces reached the Litani River, which is some 20 to 30 kilometers inside Lebanon, military officials said Saturday evening. As part of the expanded operation, IAF helicopters dropped a large number of Israeli troops deep inside Lebanese territory on Saturday, in the largest operation of its kind since 1973. IDF sources said more than 80 Hezbollah fighters had been killed in the clashes over the weekend, at least 40 of them on Saturday. Israel has nearly tripled the number of forces in Lebanon as part of its expanded ground war, and expects to fight for another week, despite a United Nations cease-fire resolution, IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said Saturday. Halutz said IDF troops would stay in Lebanon until an international force arrives. "We have almost tripled our forces that are operating in Lebanon," Halutz told reporters. A top IDF official has said that the army will stop its offensive as soon as it is ordered to do so by the political leadership and later it will begin to retrace its steps to uncover any pockets of resistance that may remain in the area. UN Middle East envoy Alvaro de Soto told Reuters on Saturday the UN force could begin deploying in seven to 10 days, suggesting there is still some time before the "immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations," as called for in the resolution. An IDF spokeswoman said an IDF officer and two soldiers were killed Saturday when Hezbollah fighters fired an anti-tank missile at their tank. She said another soldier died when Hezbollah launched a similar attack on a structure in the area where he and other troops had taken position. Two soldiers from the Golani Brigade were killed in an accident that occured when an IDF tank accidentally ran them over in the village of Shakif-al-Amal in the East. Two other soldiers were wounded in the accident, one seriously and the other lightly. In the eastern section, one soldier was killed when an anti-tank missile hit his tank close to the village of Kanatra. Another soldier was killed when troops exchanged fire near the village of Hadata on the eastern section. Three other soldiers were seriously wounded in separate attacks on tanks and an armored vehicle near the villages of Tyre and Dir Sirin. With the expansion of the ground offensive in Lebanon, four divisions were operating in south Lebanon and most of the activity was focused in areas from where Hezbollah has been firing short-range rockets into Israel. Sources in the IDF General Staff said four to seven days would be needed to complete the occupation of the area

[Aplomb]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Aug. 13, 2006 8:29 | Updated Aug. 13, 2006 16:38
Ministers vote 24-0 with one abstention
By HERB KEINON, GIL HOFFMAN AND JPOST STAFF



The cabinet approved the UN cease-fire deal after a stormy debate Sunday, clearing a key hurdle to ending the monthlong Mideast war, the government said.
The 24-0 vote, with one abstention, came a day after the Lebanese government approved the agreement, and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave his grudging consent. The truce was to take effect on Monday morning, but the potential for new flareups remained high.
Former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz abstained in the vote, said a senior government official.


Addressing reporters after the vote, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said the cease-fire deal approved would bring about a "change in the rules of the game" between Israel and Lebanon.

"The decision is good for Israel. I am not naive. I live in the Middle East and I know that not every decision in the Middle East is implemented and yet I still say it's good for Israel. It can lead to the real change in the Middle East that we have all been waiting for."

She noted that "The world now understands that Israel will not accept a terrorist organization on our border firing upon our citizens. We achieved most of our goals. If it's implemented, the change has been dramatic."
Livni also added that "nothing from the UN was forced on us. It was the Foreign Ministry acting for our interest from the first days of the war.

When it became clear that the Lebanese government was too weak to enforce its takeover of the south, we asked international forces to come in."

She compared the expected diplomatic situation to the situation before June 12.
Livni urged Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and the international community to implement the UN Security Council resolution calling for an end to the fighting and the mobilization of Lebanese troops backed by UN peacekeepers into south Lebanon. She called on the Lebanese army to move into south Lebanon "immediately."


During the press conference, Livni also said Israel would "not neglect" its goal of winning the release of two soldiers whose capture by Hizbullah guerrillas on July 12 precipitated the Mideast crisis.

At the start of the meeting, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert sent his condolences to the families of the fallen and wished for a quick recovery of the wounded. "Our hearts are with all IDF soldiers wherever they are," he said.

Olmert told the ministers that he had met with the families of kidnapped IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev and that he hoped the captives would now be freed. However, the truce is not linked to the soldiers' release.

The prime minister said he would appoint a senior official to conduct negotiations that would bring about the release of the kidnapped soldiers.

Olmert called the UN Security Council cease-fire resolution a good deal for Israel. According to Olmert, "Hizbullah will no longer exist as a state within a state. Lebanon will be responsible for any problems or violations of the agreement."

Defense Minister Amir Peretz said tough questions would have to be asked after the war. "The war exposed many issues, both regarding the fighting and the home front, that require review and drawing of conclusions," he was quoted as saying.

Peretz told the ministers that the current IDF operation in southern Lebanon would enable the demilitarization of the region and its transfer to the control of the UN and the Lebanese army.

According to Peretz, "The main question is how Hizbullah would react; in any case, we are preparing for all the scenarios."

The defense minister said Israel was holding contacts with UNIFIL in order to establish a mechanism that would coordinate the deployment and IDF withdrawal form southern Lebanon.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said in a statement early Sunday that the cease-fire between Hizbullah and Israel would take effect Monday morning, and urged the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to halt fighting immediately.

Annan said in a statement distributed in Lebanon that he had been in touch with Prime Ministers Fuad Saniora and Ehud Olmert to discuss the exact time and date when the cessation of hostilities called for by the UN Security Council resolution would enter into force.

"I am happy to announce that the two leaders have agreed that the cessation of hostilities and the end of the fighting will enter into force on 14 August, at 0500 hours GMT," the statement said.

Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres praised the UN decision, saying that it "restores the authority to the Lebanese government, ends the weapons supply to Hizbullah and distances Hizbullah from the border, brings the deployment of 30,000 Lebanese soldiers and international forces, and calls unequivocally for the release of the kidnapped soldiers."

Olmert phoned US President George Bush early Saturday morning to thank him for helping to preserve Israel's interests in the Security Council.

The resolution was the product of a week of intensive diplomatic wrangling between the US and France. The process also led to revelations of disagreements between Olmert and Livni, with Olmert nixing Livni's request to go to the UN near midnight on Thursday and take part in the debate.

Sources close to Olmert denied as "nonsense" reports that this was what motivated his decision. Livni is considered his major potential political rival inside Kadima.
AP contributed to this story

[Joey Bagadonuts]

Ya think you know where the countrys are who are the players in the Middle East?
Here's a fun interactive test on the geography of Northern Africa and the Middle East...

Hey...it's NOT boring and its fun! Test your knowledge.

http://www.rethinkingschools.org/jus...s/mapgame.html


***

[Sean Osborne]

Ya think you know where the countrys are who are the players in the Middle East?
Here's a fun interactive test on the geography of Northern Africa and the Middle East...

Hey...it's NOT boring and its fun! Test your knowledge.

http://www.rethinkingschools.org/jus...s/mapgame.html

Cool... Aced it in 2 minutes 10 seconds.

[Jag]

Support spreads for Hezbollah leader

By Betsy Pisik
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
August 14, 2006

BEIRUT -- Sheik Hassan Nasrallah's face filled the television above the bar, and the upscale, secular crowd at Lina's shushed itself into silence.
For 30 minutes, young and fashionable Beirut listened intently to his address, nodding from time to time and even applauding when the head of Hezbollah threatened to retaliate against Israel with strikes on Tel Aviv.
Before the war, or even in its early days, this well-heeled audience would have paid Sheik Nasrallah scant attention. But after weeks of fighting, the leader has won over new supporters, far from his usual power base among Lebanon's poor and rural Shi'ite Muslims.
The development is especially troubling to Christians and Sunni Muslims who believe Hezbollah provoked an unnecessary and devastating war without the support of the government or the people.
Yet even among these communities, which have struggled to escape the political stranglehold of Hezbollah's close ally Syria, there is an undeniable admiration for the militia's monthlong stand against the Israeli Defense Forces.
"Israel has proved it is an aggressive neighbor, and it's proven the logic of Hezbollah's resistance," said political analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut.
"The resistance was the only capable source of confronting Israel. No single Arab army has been able to win against Israel militarily."
Fawsi Issa is frightened by what he is seeing.
"It alarms me, that they can do this," said the retired carpenter who lives in Ashrafiya, the Christian section of Beirut. "I do not like Israel, what they have done to us? But why did Hezbollah have to wake the beast?"
Hezbollah, which controls two Cabinet ministries and 14 of 128 seats in the parliament, has already leveraged its military strength into political power.
Although the government agreed after a five-hour session on Saturday to ratify a cease-fire, it was unable to agree yesterday on how to deploy the Lebanese Army along the border or to divest Hezbollah of its heavy weapons.
Mr. Issa and others like him say the government has been impotent during the crisis, unable to join the fight militarily and ineffective in securing international support to end it.

It has not even been able to help many of the hundreds of thousands displaced by the fighting, with most of the relief help coming from college students, Hezbollah affiliates and foreign organizations.
Most here expect Hezbollah will refuse to disarm, delaying or even derailing the deployment of an international stabilization force to buttress an expanded U.N. peacekeeping mission.
The right of resistance to Israeli occupation in the south or in the contested eastern hillsides called Shebaa Farms is enshrined in Lebanese law. Hezbollah is unlikely to lay down its arms while Israeli soldiers still hold border towns and Marjeyoun.
A few weeks ago, the talk was of what would happen if Hezbollah was vanquished by Israel, its missiles destroyed and its supply lines compromised. Some projected a civil war in which rival militias tried to cut into its turf and claim its mantle of resistance.
Today, the same people are talking about the problems posed by Hezbollah's increased popularity for other Arab nations, which have their own sectarian divisions and armed Islamic groups.
"Hassan Nasrallah has won militarily and politically and has become a new leader like [Gamal Abdel] Nasser," Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a harsh critic of Hezbollah's alliance with Iran and Syria, said in a television interview. He was referring to the former Egyptian president, who became a hero to many Arabs with a failed attack on Israel in the Sinai Peninsula in 1967.
Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain all joined Saudi Arabia in denouncing Hezbollah's "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts" in kidnapping two Israeli soldiers on July 12.
But last week, they joined other Arab League powers at the United Nations in demanding changes in the original cease-fire resolution to make it more favorable to Lebanon.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/world...814r_page2.htm


Don't think it's over.....
Jag

[Brian Baldwin]

Ya think you know where the countrys are who are the players in the Middle East?
Here's a fun interactive test on the geography of Northern Africa and the Middle East...

Hey...it's NOT boring and its fun! Test your knowledge.

http://www.rethinkingschools.org/jus...s/mapgame.html


***

Didn't do quite as well as Sean... 2 Minutes, 57 seconds.

[Aplomb]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...291338,00.html

Assad: We’ll liberate Golan Heights

Syrian president tells Egyptian newspaper ‘in Lebanon Israel destroyed everything, but it was unable to achieve its true military objectives on the ground;’ adds: The resistance has won the war, now we must win the diplomatic battle as well; if Israel launches a war against Syria, it will pay a heavy price
Roee Nahmias

Syrian President Bashar Assad said his country is prepared for any war that may break out with Israel , adding that he is convinced that the chances for peace have decreased and that “the Golan Heights will be liberated by Syria.”

In a special interview with Egyptian newspaper Al-Osboa, Assad said “if Israel launches a war against Syria, it will pay a heavy price.”


He said Syria has been following Israel closely, particularly after former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon came to power.

“The fact that he was elected by such a large majority attests to the fact that the Israeli nation does not want peace,” Assad said.


“Syria and the resistance (referring to Hizbullah ) read the situation correctly in that we predicted the confrontation. There have been extensive preparations for the current battle. Our disagreement focused on the nature of the resistance. There were those who thought the resistance didn’t stand a chance in a time when satellites reveal everything, track everything down and can direct severe blows at the resistance, but the reality proved otherwise.


“In Lebanon they (Israel) destroyed everything, but they were unable to achieve their true military objectives on the ground; the resistance has won the war, and now we must win the diplomatic battle as well.”


'New phase in Arab history'

Referring to the international community’s intervention in the conflict, President Assad said “they intervene only when Israel is in pain; but when the Lebanese, Palestinians and others suffer – no one intervenes.”


Assad took the opportunity to praise Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah , describing him as “a unique commander in the history of the noble Lebanese resistance’; he also lauded Hizbullah TV station Al-Manar, saying it was the first time that the Arab media ‘defeated’ the enemy’s.


“The US and Israeli intelligence agencies are unaware of the resistance’s real capabilities,” he said, adding that he had rejected “lucrative offers” presented to him on condition that he abandon Hizbullah and Hamas.

Assad said “there were those who believed that peace (with Israel) was the only option and they attempted to enforce it upon the Arab nation, but the resistance’s firm stand and the change we see in the Arab world, due to which we can see millions of youngsters waving the Hizbullah and resistance flags, have proven that this nation is on the brink of a new phase in its history.”

Ali Waked contributed to the report

[Aplomb]

http://today.reuters.com/News/Crises...ryId=HAF529985

Iranian missiles ready to hit Tel Aviv says cleric
Tue 15 Aug 2006 4:50 AM ET

TEHRAN, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Iran will hit Tel Aviv with its medium-range missiles if attacked, said an influential senior cleric on Tuesday.

"If they (U.S. and Israel) militarily attack Iran ... They should be afraid of the day when our missiles with 2,000 km range will hit Tel Aviv," Ahmad Khatami told state television.

Khatami sits on the Assembly of Experts, the body of 86 clerics that constitutionally supervises the country's most powerful man, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Arms experts say Iran's Shahab-3 missiles have a maximum range of around 2,000 km (1,240 miles), meaning they are capable of hitting Israel as well as U.S. military bases in the Gulf.

U.S. officials accuse Iran of planning to equip its missiles with nuclear warheads. Iran says it has no desire to have atomic weapons and is only developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, such as electricity generation.

Iranian military commanders have repeatedly warned they would not hesitate to deploy the Shahab-3 missiles if Iran came under attack over its disputed nuclear programme.

Washington says it wants a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear dispute with the West, but has not ruled out military options.

Tehran has vowed to expand its atomic fuel activities despite a U.N. Security Council resolution demanding it halt nuclear work by Aug. 31 or face the threat of sanctions.

Khatami praised Lebanon's Hizbollah for its resistance against Israel, saying that U.S. President George W. Bush and Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should have learned lessons from the month-long war in Lebanon.

"I congratulate Hizbollah for its victory, which was the victory of Islam. This was a disgraceful defeat for America and the Zionist regime (Israel)," Khatami said.

Bush on Monday reiterated that Iran should stop supporting armed groups in both Iraq and Lebanon.

Iran, which refuses to recognise Israel, says it only gives moral support to anti-Israeli groups like Hamas and Hizbollah and denies backing insurgents in neighbouring Iraq.




© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

[Aplomb]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/750416.html

Netanyahu: Government's goals not achieved

Olmert says Israel has dealt Hezbollah a harsh blow

By Haaretz Service and Agencies

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Monday afternoon that Israel's month-long military offensive in Lebanon had dealt Hezbollah a "harsh blow," and vowed to continue to pursue the leaders of militant organization. But speaking after Olmert, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud criticized the government for what he said was its failure to meet its self-declared aims. The fighting, which began with July 12 abduction of two Israel Defense Forces soldiers and the killing of eight others by Hezbollah, seemed to have halted Monday morning as a United Nations-brokered truce took hold.

A tense calm took the place of bitter fighting at 8 A.M. Monday, as the guns were stilled after a month of hostilities.

In his first address to the Knesset plenum since the cease-fire went into effect, Olmert said that Hezbollah was no longer a state within state, saying that there was no longer a situation in which "a terrorist organization is allowed to act inside a state as an arm of the axis of evil."

Olmert also admitted, however, that there had been "shortcomings" in the way in which the conflict had been managed, and said that there should be a period of reflection.

"We will have to review ourselves in all the battles. We won't sweep things under the carpet," he pledged, but warned that the country "does not have the luxury of falling into endless internal disputes."

"The overall responsibility for this operation lies with me, the prime minister. I am not asking to share this with anyone," he said.

Olmert called the war and the UN resolution important victories for Israel that changed the strategic balance in the region, and badly weakened Hezbollah.

"[IDF] soldiers have, to an extent not yet publicly disclosed, battered this murderous organization, its military and organizational infrastructure, its long-term capabilities, its huge arsenal, which it built over many years, and also the self-confidence of its members and leaders," the prime minister said.

"In all battles, in all encounters with Hezbollah, the [army] had the upper hand, and of this there is no doubt."

Olmert vowed that Israel would continue to hunt down Hezbollah's leaders, calling it a "moral right," and said that Israel reserved the right to respond to any violation of the truce.

"We will continue to pursue them everywhere and at all times," he said. "We have no intention of asking anyone's permission."

Olmert pledged to work for the release of the two soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, "without wearying, and using every means at our disposal, overt and covert."

Anticipating that another war with the militant group may come in the future, he said Israel would learn the lessons of this war and "do better."

And, addressing the international community, he said that Israel would not apologize for the offensive.

He said that Israel's response to the cross-border attack against Hezbollah had proved that it would not tolerate any threat to its sovereignty.

The speech was interrupted by Arab MK Ahmed Tibi, whose repeated heckling resulted in his removal from the plenum. Two other legislators were also ejected from the house.

Olmert paid tribute to the all soldiers involved in the fighting, including IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz and the soldiers who fought on the ground.

"You are the heroes of the people of Israel," he said.

He also sent wishes for a speedy recovery to all the wounded, both soldiers and civilians.

During his speech, Netanyahu slammed the policy of unilaterally conceding territory, saying that the "doctrine of unilateral withdrawals had proven to be a failure."

Such moves give Israel's enemies "a tactical advantage," he argued.

"We left Lebanon to the last centimeter and they are firing. We left Gaza to the last centimeter and they are firing," said Netanyahu, who quit the government of Olmert's predecessor, Ariel Sharon, in protest at the 2005 unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.

Israel, under former prime minister Ehud Barak, pulled its troops out of Lebanon in May 2000, after an 18-year presence in the south of the country.

Olmert and his Kadima party were elected in March on a platform which included a plan for a possible unilateral withdrawal from large swathes of the West Bank.

"We live in a coma and we received a wakeup call," said the Likud leader, adding that he could not "fathom why a state of emergency was not declared" during the conflict.

"It must be said honestly, there were many failures, failures in identifying the threat, failures in preparing to meet the threat, failures in the management of the war, failures in the management of the home front," Netanyahu said.

"Without doubt we shall need later on to learn the lessons and fix the mistakes," he said

[Sean Osborne]

Lifting my hiatus from this thread to post these secular comments:

Netanyahu is dead-on correct. I've been saying the same thing in private Emails to many people in the past three days.

Just for you guys... have a look at my end of these emails, you may see where I am going next.

From what I am hearing from IDF coming back south into Israel - many the IDF grunts are lucky to have survived. They had no actionable intel of what they were going into; Hezbollah is a trained professional military force and not ragtag merc's as was briefed; IDF officers and non-coms alike disobeyed suicidal orders from clueless leadership in Israel --- they were lucky the body count was as low as it was, particularly the tank corps. Most units were ordered to engage Hezbollah and Iranian IRGC troops without the benefit of the "7 P's"

Proper Planning and Preparation Prevent Piss Poor Performance

These verteran's will ensure Olmert's removal.

Open door for Netanyahu me thinks.

Phase II of this war WILL be different, the Iranians and Syrians are as cocky as ever (even though Israeli's did exact a high toll from Hezbollah/IRGC), and believe that Israel is easy pickings based upon this combat performance. They believe their strategic combat depth will outlast Israel's.

T-minus 7 days and counting.

Sean

I was relating the premise of the first four sentences of this report to Doug this afternoon - we had a meeting in Niagara Falls a half hour ago. The first four sentences explicitly reinforce what I was saying: That Iran and Syria MUST be extremely encouraged by what the US (State Department) has forced Israel to do after it's very hard fought gains against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Iran is the driving force behind this war, it is a war for Israel's survival - yet the US State Dept. has forced Israel to begin backpedalling for some cockamamie agenda it is pursuing. We've snatched a potential battlefield defeat for Israel from the jaws of victory. The US agenda guarrantees Israel a far more vicious war with emboldened enemies who are like sharks circling wounded, bleeding prey and will close for what they believe will be the kill in short order. Put another way - with allies like the US, what do Israel's enemies have to fear now?

From where I stand, US influence over Israeli defensive military operations as in Lebanon is leveraged 99 and 44/100ths percent upon critical supplies of war materiel and the crucial airlifting of that materiel in times of crisis. Knowing this significant vulnerability, I do not see any rationale why the islamofascists would not strike the US significantly in the near term and divert our airlift resources away from Israeli resupply missions in what certainly will be Phase II of the current Iranian operation to destroy the State of Israel.

Just imagine an Ahmadi-Nejad-made Katrina-like ( but larger and in more locations ) set of disasters in the US this late-summer or fall. How would Israel fare on the battlefield then? Might Israel have to resort to the Sampson Option because America would be preoccupied with its own national crisis?

Regarding Ahmdi-Nejad's threat for 21/22 August:

Yes, this (a nuke strike) is very possible. High risk-high probability in my book, with events in Lebanon and an impending Israeli withdrawal making such a Iranian strike ever the more likely. Even if Ahmadi-Nejad's strike is only an airburst or EMP event over Israel- the effect on the Israeli street might be the same.

Olmert must go- and soon.

And here is where I stand as of 0600 this morning ...

Two concluding sentences stand out in this report from a most unlikely Russian news source, the first reiterating what I and many others are saying, and the other which makes obvious the extremely counter-productive agenda of the US Government.

1.) "Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud Party leader and a rival, said: “There were many failures — failures on identifying the threat, failures in preparing to meet the threat, failures in the management of the war, failures in the management of the home front.”

Exactly, explicitly correct. This comes from a man who was a member of the elite Sayeret Matkal, an elite branch of the Israeli IDF special forces whose speciality has long been counter-terrorism, deep reconnaissance and battlefield intelligence collection. (He should be the Prime Minister instead of the inept Ehud Olmert.)


2.) "Last night, President George W. Bush blamed Iran and Syria for fomenting the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “We can only imagine how much more dangerous this conflict would be if Iran had the nuclear weapon it seeks,” he said."

Who bears the ultimate responsibility of completely inappropriate and woefully misplaced U.S. pressure on Israel?

What is the difference in Israeli defense against terrorist and foreign national aggression and that claimed by the U.S. and "national security" interests in launching a Global War against these same forces?

How can the actions of the US Government be explained in forcing a unilateral ceasefire and battlefield withdrawal upon Israel in the face of this specifically identified threat, outrageous aggression by enemy nations, state supporters of terrorism and the overall agenda and objectives of those driving this war upon the State of Israel and its entire population???

What agenda is the United States of America pursuing here against nations whose leadership declares the need of national extinction for Israel and creating an Apocalypse for the rest of mankind?

When will we realize that the American national leadership has lost its mind and is aiding an abetting the enemies of our civilization by forcing Israel to retreat from a certain battlefield victory against those forces WITH WHOM WE SHOULD ALSO BE ENGAGED IN BATTLE?


Sean
--
non sibi sed patriae

Source report follows:

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/08/...ezbollah.shtml



Israel Finds Evidence That Syria, Iran Arm Hezbollah With Russian Weapons

Created: 15.08.2006 14:09 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 14:10 MSK , 5 hours 43 minutes ago
MosNews

Abandoned Hezbollah positions in Lebanon yesterday revealed conclusive evidence that Syria — and almost certainly Iran — provided the Russian-made anti-tank missiles that have blunted the power of Israel’s once invincible armor, the Daily Telegraph reported.

After one of the fiercest confrontations of the war, Israeli forces took the small town of Ghandouriyeh, east of the southern city of Tyre, on Sunday evening, hours before a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations took effect.

At least 24 Israeli soldiers were killed in the advance on the strategic hilltop town as Hezbollah fighters were pushed back to its outskirts, abandoning many weapons.

The discovery helped to explain the slow progress made by Israeli ground forces in nearly five weeks of a war which Hezbollah last night claimed as “a historic victory.” Israeli political and military leaders are faci ng mounting criticism over the conduct of the offensive, which was intended to smash the Iranian-backed Shia militia.

Outside one of the town’s two mosques a van was found filled with green casings about 6ft long. The serial numbers identified them as AT-5 Spandrel anti-tank missiles. The wire-guided weapon was developed in Russia but Iran began making a copy in 2000.

Beyond no-man’s land, in the east of the village, was evidence of Syrian-supplied hardware. In a garden next to a junction used as an outpost by Hezbollah lay eight Kornet anti-tank rockets, described by Brig Mickey Edelstein, the commander of the Nahal troops who took Ghandouriyeh, as “some of the best in the world”.

Written underneath a contract number on each casing were the words: “Customer: Ministry of Defence of Syria. Supplier: KBP, Tula, Russia.”

Brig Edelstein said: “If they tell you that Syria knew nothing about this, just look. This is the evidence. Proof, not just talk.”

The discovery of the origin of the weapons proved to the Israelis that their enemy was not a ragged and lightly armed militia but a semi-professional army equipped by Syria and Iran to take on Israel. The weapons require serious training to operate and could be beyond the capabilities of some supposedly regular armies in the Middle East. The Kornet was unveiled by Russia in 1994. It is laser-guided, has a range of three miles and carries a double warhead capable of penetrating the reactive armour on Israeli Merkava tanks. Russia started supplying them to Syria in 1998.

Israeli forces were taken by surprise by the sophistication of the anti-tank weapons they faced. They are believed to have accounted for many of the 116 deaths the army suffered. Dozens of tanks were hit and an unknown number destroyed.

The missiles were also used against infantry, in one case bringing down a house and killing nine soldiers. They played an important part in Hezbollah’s tactics of using a network of concealed positions to set up ambushes for the Israelis as they inched in. Last night, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, said his men had achieved “a strategic, historic victory” over “a confused, cowardly and defeated” enemy. He said the militia would not disarm, as Israel and the UN Security Council were demanding. It would be “immoral, incorrect and inappropriate,” he said. “It is the wrong timing on a pyschological and moral level.”

As the militia leader was claiming victory, Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, defended his handling of the crisis and said that the massive air, ground and sea attack had changed the face of the Middle East. But he admitted that the military and political leadership was guilty of “shortcomings”, not least in underestimating the threat from anti-tank weapons.

Critics say that he placed too much faith in the ability of the air force to break the back of Hezbollah and delayed launching a major ground offensive un til it was too late.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud Party leader and a rival, said: “There were many failures — failures on identifying the threat, failures in preparing to meet the threat, failures in the management of the war, failures in the management of the home front.”

Last night, President George W. Bush blamed Iran and Syria for fomenting the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. “We can only imagine how much more dangerous this conflict would be if Iran had the nuclear weapon it seeks,” he said.

[Aplomb]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Hizbullah: Disarmament not on agenda
By GIL HOFFMAN AND JPOST.COM STAFF



The issue of disarmament is not on the agenda, senior Hizbullah official Hassan Fadlallah said on Wednesday, jeopardizing the fragile cease-fire in the region. The UN cease-fire resolution clearly states that the area south of the Litani river must be demilitarized.

According to Fadlallah, who spoke with al-Jazeera, Hizbullah will not evacuate its operatives from southern Lebanon since they are the ones who populate the region. "Any such withdrawal means the evacuation of southern Lebanon," he said.

An official in the Prime Minister's Office warned on Tuesday that the IDF would have to resume operations in Lebanon if Hizbullah is not disarmed.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly reached a deal allowing Hizbullah to keep its weapons but refrain from exhibiting them in public. Israeli officials called the arrangement a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which passed over the weekend and was approved on Sunday by the cabinet.

"The resolution is clear that Hizbullah needs to be removed from the border area, embargoed and dismantled," the official said. "If the resolution is not implemented, we will have to take action to prevent the rearming of Hizbullah. I don't think backtracking will serve any useful purpose. There has to be pressure on Hizbullah to disarm or there will have to be another round."


Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is expected to raise the issue when she meets in New York on Wednesday with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Annan angered Israeli officials when he told Channel 2 on Tuesday that "dismantling Hizbullah is not the direct mandate of the UN," which could only help Lebanon disarm the organization. Annan upset officials further when he said that deploying international forces in Lebanon would take "weeks or months," and not days as expected.

Israeli officials said the IDF would not complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon until the international force was deployed - even if it took months - to prevent a vacuum in Lebanon that could endanger Israeli civilians. An official in the Prime Minister's Office accused Annan of having an anti-Israel agenda.

"He has been one-sided," the official said. "He tried to be even-handed in a situation that was clearly asymmetrical. When one side committed crimes against humanity and engaged in genocide and the other side defended itself, he cannot treat us in the same manner."

Annan rejected charges of bias, saying, "I have been very hard on Hizbullah and condemned Hizbullah for what it has done. I have condemned Israel for what I consider excessive use of force but it doesn't mean I am taking one side."

Livni will also meet with US diplomatic officials and Jewish leaders during her 24-hour visit.

The goals of the trip include advancing Israel's interests in talks on implementing the cease-fire in Lebanon, expediting the deployment of an international force and bringing about the return of the kidnapped IDF soldiers.
Annan is set to make key decisions about the role of the multinational force. Livni had planned to visit New York over the weekend but her original trip was blocked by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

...hit the above link for the rest of the article

[American Patriot]

Fitzgerald: The Arab-Israeli conflict: nationalism or jihad?
jihadwatch ^ | July 2, 2006 | Hugh Fitzgerald



For the entire history of the Lesser Jihad against Israel, the promptings of that war from Islam itself have been largely obscured, obscured most of all from the Israelis themselves.


The original opposition of the Arabs to Jews buying land from landowners was naturally muted as long as the Arabs needed Western power to help them against the Turks. But as the earliest leader of the local Arabs -- they were not then, not until after the Six-Day War, renamed the "Palestinians" -- the mufti El Husseini -- made clear, it was Muslims who opposed them, and it should be a common Muslim cause. It took quite a while. Arabs under French rule in North Africa, or miserably poor, and certainly distant from, whatever happened in Mandatory Palestine, would hardly have been in a position to participate in the Lesser Jihad, much less something wider in scope. The Dutch ruled in the East Indies; the British controlled India -- in neither place did the Muslims possess the wherewithal to dream more dangerous dreams. Jihad never went away -- how could it? -- but the wherewithal to conduct Jihad was lacking.


In 1947, the Bishop of Beirut, Moubarac, understood clearly the Muslim basis of the Arab assault on Israel. His speech can be found in Bat Ye'or's Islam and Dhimmitude. The Jews of Israel, however, saw the conflict as one of Arabs who were opposed to the Jews. They knew very little, almost nothing, about Islam. They also knew that many of the local Arab Christians were echoing the sentiments of local Arab Muslims, and assumed, wrongly, that this meant that it was the "Arabs" who were hostile to them. They failed to realize that many of the local Arab Christians were classic dhimmis, who had accepted and internalized Muslim attitudes. That this phenomenon was observable in many communities of non-Muslims under Muslim rule was simply not understood.


The rhetoric of the 1948 attack contained all kinds of allusions to Islam. Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League (and great-uncle to Ayman al-Zawahiri) promised a massacre like that of the Mongols when they conquered the Jews. The still-weak Arabs, however, needed outside help, diplomatic and economic. They were in no position to start muttering darkly about a Jihad against the West.


Pan-Arabism, with which one associates the name of Nasser and then later of Saddam Hussein, who also saw himself as the Arab champion, the Saladin of our age (it didn't matter that Saladin, another native of Tikrit, was a Kurd), was merely a realistic (for its day) subset of pan-Islamism. It was the Arabs who needed to be unified first, and no one could think beyond that goal. Nasser was hardly a Marxist. He was a local despot, with great appeal to Arab youths. This is one of the themes, played on a little too insistently and a little too plangently, by Fouad Ajami in his "predicament" of the Arabs, his "dream palace" of the Arabs shtick that very carefully avoids the subject of Islam.


The "secularists" were never that secular. If Nasser, and then Sadat, treated the Ikhwan, the Muslim Brotherhood, as a menace, it is because they were a menace to them -- a political rival. But this did not make Sadat, in particular, a "secularist" (he actually favored, at times, the Muslim Brotherhood). Saddam Hussein was a Ba'athist because it allowed him to continue to pretend to have a regime open to all, Kurds as well as Arabs, Christians as well as Muslims, Shi'a Muslims as well as Sunni Muslims. And some of them were part of the government. But the real power remained that of Sunnis, and modern Iraq was essentially a Sunni despotism, mild under the monarchy, harsh from Qassem through to Saddam Hussein. Saddam Hussein knew perfectly well that the Shi'a far outnumbered the Sunnis, and that the opposition to him was most dangerous in the Shi'a mosques. It was to his advantage to minimize the political role of Islam, therefore, but whenever it suited him, he invoked Islam and Muslim history. The battles he spoke of when attacking Iran were the old battles against the Persians by the Islam-bearing Arabs. He was building the largest mosque in the world. He commissioned a Qur'an calligraphed using his blood for ink. He put a Qur'anic phrase on the flag of Iraq. Whether or not he was a deep Believer (he is now apparently reading the Qur'an with great intensity), he was certainly a Believer.


Against Israel, the rhetoric, the attitudes, the entire refusal to contemplate the permanence of an Infidel sovereign state, can all without difficulty be ascribed to Islam. The local dhimmis, such islamochristians as Hanan Ashrawi and Naim Ateek and others, promote the Muslim view and Muslim demands. That may confuse a few, but it should not confuse anyone familiar with the phenomenon.


The war against Israel is not an "ethnic" nor a "tribal" war by Arabs against Jews. When rants against Israel are repeated in Pakistan, or by Mahathir Mohamed in Malaysia, or by the assorted Islamic groups in Indonesia, one sees clearly that what is going on is prompted by the belief-system of Islam. It is a war against a non-Muslim state, by as many Muslims as care to participate. Some may have in the past been held in check by their own dislike of the Arabs. The Iranians and the Turks both make insistently clear that "we are not Arabs" and then go on to speak contemptuously of the Arabs. For a while, the national interests of Iran, as defined by the Shah and his advanced if corrupt coterie, included fair treatment of non-Muslims, and a reasonable attitude toward, even a kind of quasi-alliance, with Israel. Something of the sort seems to have developed, later on, between not Turkey but rather between the keepers-of-the-Kemalist-flame in the Turkish army, and some of its secularists, and Israel.


To assume that the war between the Arabs and Israel is ethnic or tribal ignores the rhetoric, the appeals, the views of Muslims as expressed through time and space. It ignores the simplest and most obvious truth: the entire world in the end belongs to Allah and his people, the best of people. And Israel, a sovereign state run by Jews, is a particular affront, not only for where it is situated (seeming to break up the continuity of one uninterrupted Arab Muslim landmass, as Arab Muslims see it -- for them the Maronites, the Copts, the Berbers, the Kurds, have no rights, hardly exist in what Arabs, with a little help from ARAMCO, began decades ago calling "the Arab World" -- a phrase that misleads, but stuck, so that it keeps on misleading), but because the traditionally despised Jews, despised because they had no power (unlike the local Christians, who at least could look to powerful co-religionists in Western Christendom) were in charge of that sliver of land.


The war of the Arabs against Israel is a "religious" war if we consider Islam to be a religion. It is promoted by, it springs from, the tenets, and attitudes, and atmospherics, of Islam. The Muslim Arabs know this. Other Muslims know this. Islamochristian Arabs pretend that it is not so. And the Israelis, of course, prefer not to recognize that it is so, because such recognition would also lead them to conclude, inexorably, that there is no end to this war, and that negotiations are merely occasions for Arab duplicity, as Muhammad ("War is deception") demonstrated in his own treaty of Al-Hudaibiyya, which he made with the Meccans in 628 A.D., and broke 18 months later, when his side had increased its power. That, as Majid Khadduri notes, is the basis of Muslim treaty-making with Infidels. It always has been; it will remain such.


And the Muslims are not taught to permit Infidels to remain with some sliver of land where their rule will prevail -- especially not on land once held by Muslims. So the recognition by the Israelis of the true nature of the war against them would also force them to conclude that not only are treaties largely pointless, but that there is no end to this, for the size of Israel is irrelevant to its acceptance by the Arab Muslims. If it further shrinks, however, it may tempt an attack, and the only way the peace can be kept is if the Arabs have an excuse not to attack. That excuse can be found in the idea of "Darura" or "necessity," which can be invoked to justify inaction by Arab regimes.


Muslim Arabs, local ("Palestinians") and non-local, understand perfectly why Israel will never be accepted and must in the end disappear. They differ on the instruments through which this may best be achieved. They differ on the amount of time it will take -- there are the Rapid Jihaidsts of Hamas, and Hezbollah, and the Slow Jihadists of Abbas's PLO. But the understanding of what the end result must be, at some point, is shared by all of them.


It is the Israelis, or many of them in the ruling elites, who refuse to see what is staring them in the face. It's too upsetting. It would require seeing control of the "West Bank" as indispensable -- control of the marches, of the invasion route, of the aquifers necessary for Israel to live. It would require ending the participation in the farce of this "Palestinian" people that the Israelis themselves refer to without any seeming understanding of the way that they thereby promote the "two-tiny-peoples" business, that which since the 1967 War began with the careful creation of the "Palestinian people" and has been so relentlessly used to present as a matter of competing nationalisms what is, in fact, a classic Jihad. Classic in aim, that is, but not classic in its instruments. For as with Western Europe, outright military conquest is unlikely.


Other methods are being employed.

[American Patriot]

Syria President Assad Threatens War
NewsMax ^ | Aug. 16, 2006 | Not Cited

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad says his country is prepared for war with Israel and warned that the Golan Heights would be seized "by Syrian hands.”


In an interview with the Egyptian publication Al-Usbu after the ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect, Assad declared: "Syria has been prepared and ready since the first day of the war . . .


"We and the resistance (Hezbollah) read clearly that the day of confrontation was definitely approaching. The current war is five years old, and there were widespread preparations for this day.”
Assad said he is convinced that steps toward peace "have fallen off, and that the Golan will be liberated by Syrian hands.”


Asked what the expected results would be if Israel launched an attack against Syria, Assad said: "If Israel acts with adventurism and enters into a war with Syria, this will be the beginning of a heavy price that it will pay.”
Assad said Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel marks "a new stage in the history of [the Arab] nation, and he remarked ominously: "To this day no one in American intelligence or Israeli intelligence knows what the true capabilities of the resistance are.”


The Syrian government daily Al-Thawra claimed Hezbollah had achieved a military victory over Israel, which "forced the Americans to make huge diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing [the victory] from being translated into a new political reality.”


On Tuesday, Germany’s foreign minister abruptly canceled a planned visit to Syria after Assad gave a speech ridiculing Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon and warning against disarming Hezbollah.


Frank-Walter Steinmeier had already boarded a plane in Jordan for the flight to Syria when he canceled the trip, saying Assad’s speech was "going in completely the wrong direction” on the need for peace in the region.

[catfish]

Well, so far everything I predicted earlier is coming true. The only thing I didnt mention in my earlier post was the downfall of Olmert.

You guys can sit around and predict what ever you want, I will stick with my own opinions and what I know. Everyone else has been dead wrong so far.

I'm not posting this to inflame any arguments but as a reminder to look before you leap.

In a perfect world, Israel would have wiped Hezbollah off the map, but we dont live in a perfect world. We live in a world where politics and world opinion shape the outcome of events. Israel was doomed from the beginning of its offensive because the politicians and world opinion were in control.

[Sean Osborne]

Well, so far everything I predicted earlier is coming true.

Catfish,

??? The only thing I saw what that you said was something to the effect that this is a war Israel cannot win, that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran would come out on top. That has not occured... they're falsely gloating about a non-existent "victory", but that's completely irrelevant.

Don't crow just yet over some thing you opined because this war is far from being over. Phase I has concluded; Israel was hurt but not defeated in any sense of the word, and Hezbollah had the stuffing knock out of them, but they also are not defeated as yet. Phase II of this war lies dead ahead.

This war has a loooooong way to go yet before anyone can say 'I wuz right and you all are wrong.'

Everyone else has been dead wrong so far

No, no one can be wrong about anything because as I am pointing out, this war is not over, not by a long shot.

I'm not posting this to inflame any arguments but as a reminder to look before you leap.

No one has leaped. We've posted opinions and assessments just as you have done. None have panned out correct as yet.

Standby...

[samizdat]

Catfish is right about one thing- Israel will eventually be stomped upon- underground by the earthquake.

Israel was stepped upon, and accepting the cease-fire at this point (most will concur that it's temporary) appears logical.
I'm no expert, nor military stategist, but this is not a typical war with greed, money at the root.
Israel has billions of jew hating muslims to fend off. Syria and Iran, at this point could do serious damage to Tel aviv, Jerusalem and power stations, and perhaps nuclear instalations. Recall- they have a Russky-sputnik-robot satellite. Treading further into Lebenon, and inciting or attacking Syria or Iran is not in their interest at this time. They would win, perhaps, lose millions of lives on both sides, and still be beseiged with the rest of Muslim vengeance.
Strategically, I reckon, they're resting a very little hope that hamas and hizbolah will be french fried by UN and world opinion. Alternately, their bigger preps and offense for survival are likely beefing up Patriot and star war defense for population centers, while planning surprises for an Al..- atomic iran and Assad (birthday 11 Sept.)
The eco situation is crucial. I believe that Israel is capable of "suitcase nuking" Damascus and Tehran. However, look at how merciful they are. Not a single person was killed when they bombed Sadaam's nuke reactor- at dawn, between shifts on Sunday, with custom built superfuel tanks.
Israel has a big gas deal brewing with the russkies. Neither Soviets nor Israel, nor western interests, have diddlysquat to care about the (excuse me for waxing religious)- the lost tribes of ISHMAEL.
I would reckon that mercifully- opening scenario for act I scene 2 begins with EMPS. End of predominant western economy (dollar) Iran retaliates, Arab nations slowly steadily retaliate forever. Israel has gas, "Russia" is happy godfather, but not totally committed to foster or protect the "people of God ". Perhaps there is a gasprom, eco root to this as all wars. It could take 5 weeks, 5 years or 50 to explode, but reason points to the explosion. So does Christian Scripture.

[Sean Osborne]

As I have stated, here comes PHASE II of Iran's war (via Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and HAMAS) with Israel.

It begins tomorrow, 19 August 2006.

From an email I sent out last evening:


The Deputy Commander of the regular Iranian armed forces, Brigadier General Mohammed Reza Ashtiani, announced yesterday, 16 August 2006, that large-scale Iranian war games would commence on 19 August 2006 and continue for an indefinite period of time.

The code name for the Iranian exercise is Operation Zolfaghar.

Zolfaghar is the name given to the sword belonging to Imam Ali ibn Abu Talib during initial Islamic conquests at the Battles of Badr, Uhud and many other wars of Islamic conquest. Imam Ali is the man the Shi'a most highly revere as the first true Caliph after Muhammed.

• Operation Zolfaghar is being launched just two days prior to when Iranian President Muhmud Ahmadi-Nejad has stated the West would recieve Iran's response to issues over its nuclear weapons program.

• Concurrent with a not-so-veiled threat of a "light show" over Jerusalem, Israel.

• The date also coincides with the mythical "night flight" of Muhammed from Mecca to Jerusalem, then to Heaven and Hell and back to Mecca.

Here's a media report from RFE/RL:

Iran To Launch Large-Scale Military Maneuvers

An Iranian military exercise on the Persian Gulf in April

(Fars)

August 17, 2006 -- Iran's state television today said the military would launch a series of large-scale exercises on August 19.

State television quoted army deputy commander General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani as saying that the upcoming maneuvers "aim at introducing Iran's new defensive doctrine."

Ashtiani reportedly said the exercises would involve both ground and air forces and would go on "for an unspecified period of time."

Addressing reporters at a news briefing on August 16, Ashtiani said the war games would take place in West and East Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Baluchestan va Sistan, and Khorasan provinces.

Most of those peripheral provinces also have large ethnic minority groups.

Iran's Interior Ministry this week said security patrols along the country's borders would be reinforced in a bid to counter the activity of drugs smugglers.

(Mehr, AP)

[Backstop]

Sheesh...

Is Iran using the cover of Op Zolfaghar to stage equiptment for an Israeli invasion...? Or just warming up...?

And just before the west receives their 'nuke program' answer...?

(Rhetorical I'm sure as everyone is also thinking this)

If the Iranian Pres is trying to calm the west, he's choosing the exact wrong way to go about it. HAHA!

[American Patriot]

Lebanon - Israeli aircraft strike targets in Bekaa Valley
AFP via Babelfish translation | August 18, 2006

Israeli air attack in Békaa, the east of Lebanon

BEIRUT - Israeli aviation drew with four recoveries Friday evening on objectives not identified in an uninhabited area in the North-East from Baalbeck, in the Lebanese valley of Békaa, announced the Lebanese police force.
Helicopters and drones flew over on several occasions and at low altitude the area of Yammouné, to 22 km with flight of bird of Baalbeck, and drew with four recoveries. According to the police force, shots were then drawn in direction from the apparatuses.
The area of Yammouné is very little populated and shelters a natural reserve.


This attack is the first known rupture of the truce by the Israeli aviation, which however continues its overflights of Lebanon since the stop of the engagements with Hezbollah Monday morning.