Israeli-Arab War

[Ryan Ruck]

I think it is past time to edit the title of this thread a little...

There. Better.

[Jag]

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/446008.aspx

Israel Races against Nuclear Time Clock
By Chris Mitchell

CBN News Mideast Bureau Chief

September 20, 2008







CBNNews.com - JERUSALEM, Israel - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced last week an attack on Iran's nuclear program would endanger the entire world. Medvedev's comment is just the latest barometer of what's at stake in today's volatile Middle East.

Collision Course

Russian tanks rumbled through Georgia in its most aggressive military action since the end of the Cold War.

Meanwhile Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues his rants and threats to eliminate the Jewish state of Israel.

Numerous reports indicate Israel is preparing for a military strike on Iran's nuclear plants.

These forces are all part of today's Middle East landscape, forces that well might be on a collision course.

"In Israel, people having in the back of their mind past traumas, especially the Holocaust are truly afraid that the minute Ahmadinejad lays hands on a nuclear weapon, he will drop it on Israelis heads," said Ronen Bergman, an Israeli investigative journalist and author of "The Secret War With Iran."

He says Iran is Israel's number one concern.

"Since 2002, since General Meir Dagan was appointed Mossad General Director, the Israeli foreign intelligence service is basically working on one issue and one issue alone and this issue is Iran," he said.

October Surprise

Many analysts believe Israel won't tolerate a nuclear Iran, but don't expect an immediate response.

The last thing Israeli leaders want is to be part of an "October Surprise" before the U.S. elections. But they also know that the window to stop Iran from going nuclear may soon be closed.

"Mossad estimates of what they term as the first nuclear device is at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010," Bergman said.

Whatever the estimate of when Iran can produce nuclear weapons, some suspect an Israeli military strike might take place after the U.S.
presidential election and before the inauguration of the new President.

Bergman is one analyst who expects a strike at a later date - after the inauguration.

"At present time, if things continue as they are, I think we should expect a very tense, though quiet days in the Middle East," he said.

Jag

[American Patriot]

Iran Warns Against Attacks on Nuke Facilities

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

TEHRAN, Iran — Hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Sunday the military would strike back against anyone targeting his country's nuclear facilities, during a parade featuring a banner calling for the end of Israel.

The military parade displayed various types of Iranian-made missiles, such as Shahab-3 and Ghadr, and included a truck carrying a huge banner saying "Israel should be eliminated from the universe" in both English and Farsi.

"If anyone allows himself to commit even a tiny offense against Iran's legitimate interests, borders and sacred land, our armed forces will break his hand before he pulls the trigger," Ahmadinejad said during the parade.

The phrase "legitimate interests" is Iranian parlance for the country's nuclear program, which the West says is a cover for developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which denies the charge, already is under three sets of sanctions by the U.N. Security Council over the issue.

Washington and its Western allies are pushing for quick passage of a fourth set of sanctions to underline the international community's resolve.

But Ahmadinejad said Sunday that sanctions only help Iran achieve self-sufficiency.
Related

*
Stories
o Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Return to U.S.

"Those who once imposed sanctions, today should open their eyes and see our nation's technical achievements," he said.

Both the United States and its ally Israel say they support a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff with Iran but cannot rule out the military option.

"Today, Iran is not in a position to show softness toward its enemies," said Ahmadinejad, but added that threats made against Iran's nuclear facilities amounted to only "psychological warfare."

Sunday's parade commemorated the start in 1980 of Iran's ruinous eight-year war with neighboring Iraq.

Meanwhile, the official IRNA news agency reported that on the sideline of the parade, the air force chief of the Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Hossein Salami, rejected the notion that Iran had any ambitions for nuclear weapons, describing them as "ineffective."

"Any report about Iran's intention to use nuclear weapon is a sheer lie," he said, while adding that "our missiles are able to target the enemy's points in the region."

[vector7]

Military Intelligence official: Iran underway to having nuclear bomb

Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz briefs cabinet on Iranian threat, Gaza ceasefire, talks concerning Gilad Shalit; says Tehran has third of what it needs to build bomb, UN Security Council failing to apply necessary pressure



http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...599877,00.html

Roni Sofer

Published:

09.21.08, 15:46 / Israel News

Head of the Military Intelligence Research Division, Brigadier-General Yossi Baidatz, warned Sunday that Iran is well underway to building a nuclear bomb.

In his brief to the cabinet, Baidatz said that the international community is not putting enough pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment program.

"Iran is focusing its efforts in enriching uranium and improving the operational capabilities of its centrifuges. It is mastering the necessary technology and now has one-third of what it need to create a bomb.

"In view of the UN Security Council's inability to enforce a fourth round of sanctions, Iran's confidence is increasing and they now believe there is nothing the international community can do to stop them. Time is on Iran's side," he warned.

Tehran, continued Baidatz, is tightening its relations with Hizbullah, Syria and various Palestinian terror groups – all in an attempt to position itself as the lead radical force in the Middle East.

"The more moderate Arab states are not united in the wish to act against Iran," he added.

The ties that bind

Baidatz then went on to address the situation on the northern front: "Syria is operating on two contradicting avenues – getting closer to the West on the one hand and giving way to new radicalism on the other," he said.

"The recent Damascus summit, attend by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Qatari royalty, helped Syria position itself as a key player in regional processes, without paying any price thus far. Syria is willing to go forwards as far as the talks with Israel are concerned, but they are cautious – they're worried that the Turkish avenue will close in light of the recent political developments in Israel."

Syria, he added, "is funneling a great deal of weapons and ammunition to Lebanon, tightening its relations with Iran and fortifying its aerial and ground defenses, with Russia and Iran's assistance. Damascus is trying to play off the recent events in Georgia to get its hands on advanced weapons systems."

As for Hizbullah, Baidatz told the ministers the organization "is not gearing up for a conflict, but it will continue trying to target Israeli aircrafts and using the calm on the northern border to rearm."

On matters relating to the southern front, the head of MI Research said that the relative clam achieved by the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip was holding, despite the fact that the smaller militant groups were trying to target Israelis, mostly in the Sinai Peninsula.

Baidatz concluded his brief by giving the ministers and update on the negotiations held to free kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit: "Hamas' is apparently aiming to toughen its stands on the release – a stand rooted in their belief that Shalit in a commodity increasing in value.

"Hamas is in no hurry to see this deal materialize," he added, "which is why it has yet to re-launch the talks with Egyptian officials."

[American Patriot]

U.S. To Sell Israel Air Force New Bunker-Buster Bombs
Haaretz ^ | September 14, 2008 | By Aluf Benn and Amos Harel

Despite reservations in Washington regarding a possible Israeli strike on Iran, the American administration will supply Israel with sophisticated weapons for heavily fortified targets, the U.S. administration announced.

The U.S. Department of Defense announced it would sell the Israel Air Force 1,000 new smart bombs, rumored to significantly enhance the IAF's military capabilities. The deal was approved amid public and secret messages from Washington, with the Americans expressing their reservations about a possible Israeli strike against the Islamic Republic's suspected nuclear sites.

The Pentagon's announcement, which came on Friday, said the U.S. will provide Israel with 1,000 units of Guided Bomb Unit-39 (GBU-39) - a special weapon developed for penetrating fortified facilities located deep underground. The $77 million shipment, which includes launchers and appurtenances, will allow the IAF to hit many more bunkers than currently possible. Although each bomb weighs 113 kilograms, its penetration capabilities equal those of a one ton bomb, according to professional literature.

Most U.S. Air Force aircraft are able to carry a pack of four of these bombs in place of a single one-ton bomb. The bomb's small size allows a single-strike aircraft to carry more of the munitions than is possible utilizing currently available bomb units, thus increasing firepower, or, alternatively, allowing the aircraft to fly longer distances to deliver a single bomb.

(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...

[American Patriot]

DoD approves sale of bunker buster missiles to Israel
The Jerusalem Post ^ | September 14, 2008 | YAAKOV KATZ

The US Department of Defense has notified Congress of a potential sale of 1,000 smart bombs capable of penetrating underground bunkers to Israel, which would likely be used in the event of a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

The notification of the possible sale to Congress was made over the weekend by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the branch of the Pentagon responsible for evaluating foreign military sales.

Congress has 30 days to object the deal.

The deal is valued at $77 million and the principal contractor will be Boeing Integrated Defense Systems. The bomb which Israel has asked to procure is called the GBU-39, developed in recent years by the US as a small diameter bomb for low-cost, high-precision and low-collateral damage strikes.

In addition to the bomb, Israel has also asked for 150 mounting carriages, 30 guided test vehicles as well as two instructors to train the Israeli Air Force how to load the missiles on its aircraft.

(Excerpt) Read more at jpost.com ...

[vector7]

Syrian troop build-up concerns Lebanon
Sep. 23, 2008
The Media Line Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST

Beirut is concerned about Syria amassing its military forces on the northern Lebanese-Syrian border, alongside increased Syrian military activity.

Damascus has deployed around 10,000 troops along Lebanon's northern border. The increased deployment began over the weekend, the Lebanese daily Al-Mustaqbal reported.

Syria maintains it has increased its military presence on the border fort for internal security purposes such as cracking down on smuggling, and that the forces are not directed against Lebanon.

However, the extent of the build-up is alarming Beirut, despite a recent thaw in ties between Lebanon and Syria.

Syrian President Bashar Assad said last month that Syria was concerned about sectarian clashes in the northern Lebanese town Tripoli. This could explain Syria's deployment on the border, if Damascus fears that clashes will spill over into Syria.

However, Elias Hanna, a former Lebanese general, told the Lebanese Daily Star that deploying the army for anti-smuggling activities was an unconvincing explanation as the police and customs usually dealt with combating smuggling, not the army.

Lebanon's anti-Syrian bloc is concerned that Syria might be using the clashes in Tripoli as a pretext to reenter Lebanon.

In addition to the troop build-up, Syria also conducted a wide-scale military drill on Monday, which was attended by Assad.

The exercise underscores Syria's right to defend itself and its land against any hostility, the state-owned SANA news agency reported.
Syria withdrew its army from Lebanon in April 2005, ending a 29-year presence in the neighboring country.

The withdrawal came following public pressure after the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri two months earlier. Several anti-Syrian politicians and influential figures have since been assassinated and accusing fingers have been pointed towards Damascus.

Syria vociferously denies any involvement in these murders.

Despite Syria's withdrawal, many say Damascus still holds sway behind the scenes in Lebanon, and has agents operating in the country.

This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com /servlet/Satellite?cid=1222017365191&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[vector7]

Syria masses 10,000 commandos on border to invade N. Lebanon

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
September 23, 2008, 9:39 AM (GMT+02:00)


Syrian deployment on Lebanese border:
Commandos on right; positions on hill, trucks below

Damascus is pressing forward with its plan to occupy Greater Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city and port, DEBKAfile's military sources report. To this end, 10,000 Syrian commando troops have massed at Abboudieh on the Lebanese border ready to follow an advance force which occupied seven villages around the northern city earlier this month, as first disclosed by DEBKAfile on Sept. 20. To read the article click HERE.

A Lebanese army spokesman first denied the concentration while the mainstream Israeli media ran the official denial without checking the story out.

However, when witnesses said the boosted Syrian deployment was visible from the Lebanese side of the border Tuesday, Sept. 23, the spokesman issued a new statement. He said Beirut had asked Damascus for clarifications and was told the measure was “internal and in no way directed against Lebanon.” This left the deployment with the option of striking at anti-Syrian militias operating outside the Lebanese army in the Tripoli region.

Damascus stressed the move was linked to a crackdown against smugglers (sic).

In yet another “clarification,” the measure was linked to digging new wells along the Syrian-Lebanese border.

These various “clarifications” are so implausible that Damascus is obviously unconcerned about any serious challenge to its sudden build-up of a 10,000-strong special forces deployment.

This sort of strength, say DEBKAfile’s military sources, is deployed for war operations, not anti-smuggling policing.

Tuesday, unofficial Lebanese sources confirmed that Syrian commandos had occupied Wadi al-Ashaer, a village in the Rashaya district in the North.

Our sources add that this is only one of the seven villages captured by an advance Syrian force in northern Lebanon last week, after which Damascus advised Washington and Paris not to interfere. It is now engaged in building fortifications and paving military road links for the main body of special forces to move in.

Syrian occupation of northern Lebanon will make profound inroads on the strategic position of the United States and Israel in this part of the Middle East, yet Washington and Jerusalem are turning a blind eye.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5605

[vector7]

George Bush attacks Iran and Syria in final United Nations speech

President George W. Bush used his final speech to the United Nations to lambast the enemies of his eight-year administration and to reassure the rest of the world that America had a grip on its financial crisis.

By Tom Leonard in New York
Last Updated: 12:49AM BST 24 Sep 2008

George Bush criticised Russia for invading neighboring Georgia, calling it a violation of the UN charter. Photo: AP

Conceding next to nothing about his leadership's troubled war on terror, a defiant Mr Bush told the UN's 192 members that they needed to do more to fight terrorism.

As the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other American foes sat in the audience at the annual General Assembly gathering of world leaders in New York, Mr Bush called on the UN to enforce sanctions against Iran and North Korea over their nuclear programmes.

Mr Bush once argued that the UN was in danger of becoming irrelevant. But he told the gathering that it was now needed "more urgently than ever" to combat extremism.

Arguing that multinational organisations should take an "unequivocal moral stand" against terrorism, he said that UN's members too often decried terrorist outrages after the event instead of preventing them happening in the first place.

While a few regimes "like Syria and Iran" continued to sponsor terror, they were growing more isolated, he claimed.

"As the 21st century unfolds, some may be tempted to assume that the threat has receded. This would be comforting. It would be wrong," he said.

"The terrorists believe time is on their side, so they've made waiting out civilised nations part of their strategy. We must not allow them to succeed."

Mr Bush also urged the UN to support the "young democracies" that were making "brave stands for liberty", including Iraq, Afghanistan and Georgia.

He said: "In Iraq, the fight has been difficult, yet daily life has improved dramatically over the past 20 months, thanks to the courage of the Iraqi people, a determined coalition of nations, and a surge of American troops."

He criticised Russia for invading neighboring Georgia, calling it a violation of the UN charter.

"The United Nations' charter sets forth the equal rights of nations large and small," he said. "Russia's invasion of Georgia was a violation of those words."

In what was reportedly a last minute script insertion into a speech devoted to security, Mr Bush also sought to address concerns about the global consequences of the chaos on Wall Street.

"Our economies are more closely connected than ever before and I know that many of you here are watching how the United States government will address the problems in our financial system," said Mr Bush.

"In recent weeks, we have taken bold steps to prevent a severe disruption of the American economy, which would have a devastating effect on other economies around the world."

He said that saying that he was confident a $700 billion rescue for Wall Street would be enacted in the "urgent time frame required".

Mr Ahmadinejad was expected to return fire at Mr Bush when he addressed the assembly later in the day.

Before Mr Bush addressed the UN, he met Asif Ali Zardari, the new Pakstani presdent, just a few days after a truck bombing of an American hotel in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad killed at least 53 people and wounded scores more.

The US has been stepping up its attempts to hit al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. However, reports of US strikes inside Pakistan have angered many Pakistanis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ns-speech.html

[vector7]

Oct 1, 2008 0:43 | Updated Oct 1, 2008 16:14
Pentagon to sell fighter jets to Israel

By JPOST.COM STAFF

The US Defense Department has approved the sale of 25 F-35 stealth-enabled Joint Strike Fighters (JSF) to the Israeli Air Force (IAF).


The Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
Photo: Courtesy

The deal, valued at $15.2 billion, includes an option to buy 50 additional bombers in the coming years. Each plane is estimated to cost between $70 million and $80m. and will be equipped with F-135 or F-136 engines by the IAF.

A Pentagon official said Wednesday that the sale of the stealth jets to Israel was essential to American national interests and was meant to ensure that Israel maintained its qualitative edge over armies of neighboring countries.

A department in the Pentagon responsible for cooperation with foreign powers reportedly relayed a message to Congress announcing the approval of the deal, where it is expected to be confirmed within 30 days, before the November 4 US Presidential elections.

Thomas J. Jurkowsky, spokesman for the Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company, which manufactures the fighter jets, reportedly said that the deal would be the first international sale of the F-35 and was a significant first step in expanding the group of countries using the fighter jet outside the US.

Israel's interest in the short takeoff and vertical landing aircraft was first reported in The Jerusalem Post in December 2007. The decision to consider the F-35B was made due to an understanding that in a time of war, Israeli bases and runways would be heavily targeted by enemy missiles.

In this configuration, the F-35B can hover, land vertically, take off in a few hundred feet fully-loaded, or take off vertically with a light load.
When the aircraft transitions from jet-borne to conventional wing-borne flight, the doors close and the pilot can then accelerate to supersonic speeds.

Eight countries - including Britain, Turkey and Australia - are members of the JSF. Israel enjoys the status of a Security Cooperation Participant after paying $20m. in 2003 to obtain access to information accumulated during the development of the jet.

Already in September 2007, the IDF announced its intention to purchase up to 100 JSF fighter jets over the next decade. In addition to the request for the JSF, Israel also asked the Pentagon to buy three to five C-130 Hercules transport aircraft to begin replacing its aging fleet.

Bob Trice, a senior vice president at Lockheed Martin, said during a May 2008 visit to Israel that LM would provide all the necessary support to the US and Israeli governments to facilitate the deal.

"We are delighted that the government of Israel has made a request to the US government for the F-35 and the C- 130J," Trice said. "We look forward to supporting the US government and the government of Israel as discussions regarding the programs for the Israel Air Force proceed."

While the jet is expected to be widely used, the program has suffered some setbacks, including delays and escalating cost that have been criticized by government auditors. When maintenance and service costs for the life of the jet are added in, the cost of the F-35 to the US could reach $1 trillion over the next several decades.

Lockheed also recently had to defend the plane against claims it has performed poorly in tests and combat simulations. The company said it is the most advanced fighter of its class available.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...=1222017427629

[vector7]

Israel switches from U.S. cluster bombs, buys local

Tue Sep 30, 2008 8:21am EDT









By Dan Williams

TEL AVIV (Reuters) - Israel has cut purchases of U.S.-made cluster bombs, defense officials said Tuesday, stocking up on supplies from a state-owned Israeli company rather than heeding calls for an outright ban.

Israel's armed forces want to avoid a repeat of civilian casualties from cluster bombs during and after the 2006 Lebanon war, the officials said.

More than 100 countries have banned the bombs because they can kill indiscriminately.

Cluster bombs have a relatively high failure rate compared to more conventional explosive munitions, but are favored by armies as a way of hitting enemy combatants in areas where no precise targets can be located.

The Israeli air force and artillery showered south Lebanon with cluster shells, each containing dozens or hundreds of grenade-size bomblets, during the 34-day war against Hezbollah guerrillas two years ago.

Between 30 percent and 40 percent of the bombs failed to explode on impact, according to the United Nations Mine Action Coordination Center (UNMACC). Many of these were later detonated by accident, killing 20 civilians and wounding 195, it said.

Israeli defense officials disputed the UNMACC's findings, putting the "dud rate" at less than 15 percent.

"But we recognize that this was a problem, caused by the fact that in the first week and half of the war we were relying, pretty much exclusively, on an arsenal of American ordnance that was likely to produce duds, either because of design faults or the fact it had been on the shelf so long," one official said.

"We were cognizant of the civilian costs of the war in Lebanon and the lessons learned from the cluster-bomb issue received especially close attention."

While no army wants to fire dud bombs in conflict, failed devices that later maim and kill civilians have created diplomatic pressures that Israel wants to limit.

The officials said Israel has since begun switching to the M85 cluster bomb made by Israel Military Industries' (IMI), which says its the weapon includes a self-destruct fuse designed to blow up unexploded ordnance.

IMI claims a less than 1 percent dud-rate. A 2007 report on the M85 by Norwegian People's Aid, one of several groups campaigning for a ban on cluster munitions, rated it at more like 10 percent.

Critics say cluster bomb reliability can be impaired by tough terrain or by bomb container shells that fail to open properly -- factors not always simulated in laboratory tests.

The Norwegian study confirmed that American cluster munitions used by Israel in Lebanon were less reliable.

"By far the most widely used bomblets were the older U.S.-produced.. These bomblets are known to be unreliable and, not surprisingly, a high proportion failed to function and were left unexploded across large areas of land," it said.

The United States, along with Israel and other major military powers such as China and Russia, has declined to join a global drive to ban the cluster bomb.

But the Pentagon said in July that it would require better safety standards in U.S.-made cluster munitions.

(Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy in Beirut and Luke Baker in London; Editing by Douglas Hamilton and Keith Weir)

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...ldNews&sp=true

[American Patriot]

Israel on high alert for Syrian, Hizballah Yom Kippur attacks
Debka ^ | October 8, 2008, 11:05 AM (GMT+02:00)

After Syria moved tank units up to the Lebanese Beqaa Valley border Tuesday, Oct. 7, Israel raised the alert level for Yom Kippur on its borders with Syria and Lebanon and placed its Air Force and emergency first aid teams on standby in the event of Syrian or coordinated Syrian-Hizballah attacks.

Israeli embassies and Jewish institutions worldwide were also placed on high terror alert. Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah said recently that his promised retaliation for the death of Imad Mughniyeh “is coming.” There is no backing off from this decision or from carrying out the “big surprise” against the enemy, he said.

Damascus and the Lebanese Hizballah are closely aligned.

(Excerpt) Read more at 1.debka.com ...

[vector7]

Russia Not Backing Down From Missile Plans In Syria

10/20/2008 By David Bedein, Middle East Correspondent

Jerusalem - Contrary assurances received during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's recent visit to Moscow, Russia has not backed away from its plans to station S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on Syrian soil.

These anti-aircraft missiles could pose a significant obstacle to potential future Israeli Air Force activity in Syrian airspace.

Western intelligence sources note the Syrians requested the stationing of the Russian missiles on its territory during talks held in Moscow between the Russian Defense Ministry and high-ranking Syrian officials.

The Russians would operate the missiles, and they intend to station the missiles on Syrian soil as part of the defense alliance to protect Russia's strategic assets in Syria.

Syria's two naval bases, in Tartus and Latakia, are of prime strategic importance to Russia. They are being converted in order to host the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, which is comprised of approximately 50 warships and 80 warplanes.

The Washington Post reported in September that construction on the two Syrian naval bases has been accelerated. In Tartus, Russian teams are engaged in expanding the existing port and deepening it; the Russians are building floating piers in Latakia that will serve the Russian vessels that will be docked there.

The acceleration of the work on the Syrian ports stems from the Russian concerns that closer ties between Ukraine and the West should endanger the Russian Black Sea Fleet's main port in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The current agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires in 2017. The pro-Western Ukrainian President Viktor Lukashenko has demanded that Russia end the contract earlier and has pressured the Russians by raising the rent.

It should be noted that the relocation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to Syria and a Russian military presence on Syrian soil will necessarily have an impact on Israel's ability to operate near he Syria.

http://www.thebulletin.us/site/index...d=576361&rfi=8

[vector7]

Rate of Nuclear Thefts ‘Disturbingly High,’ Monitoring Chief Says

By NEIL MACFARQUHAR
Published: October 27, 2008

UNITED NATIONS — Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a speech on Monday that the number of reports of nuclear or radioactive material stolen around the world last year was “disturbingly high.”

Dr. ElBaradei, in his annual report to the General Assembly, said nearly 250 such thefts were reported in the year ending in June.

“The possibility of terrorists obtaining nuclear or other radioactive material remains a grave threat,” he said. “Equally troubling is the fact that much of this material is not subsequently recovered.”

Members of Dr. ElBaradei’s staff and outside experts cautioned that the amount of missing material remained relatively small. If all the stolen material were lumped together, it would not be enough to build even one nuclear device, they said.

It is also unclear if the rising number of reports of stolen material stems from a growing market for radioactive goods or more vigilant reporting of thefts by member states.

However, the idea that there might be a new market for such material is of concern, they said, especially if some of it were to end up in a dirty bomb.

The threat from such a bomb is less a health risk from radiation than from the panic an attack would probably cause, said Cristina Hansell, a professor at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, in Monterey, Calif.

Most of the concern about thefts centers on the countries of the former Soviet Union, where nuclear programs were widespread, but they occur everywhere.

In a typical case, Ms. Hansell said, an oil company reported last May that a device containing radioactive material that was used in exploration in Sudan was missing.

It would take long exposure to the device to create any health risk, she said. “What will kill you from a dirty bomb is the immediate explosion, not the radioactivity,” she said, noting that the main concern was that despite the attention devoted to trying to police such material, the amount disappearing keeps rising. “There still seems to be quite a big problem.”

Aside from the issue of thefts, Dr. ElBaradei said he hoped that North Korea, which left the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, would return, and he criticized Iran for impeding the agency’s attempts to verify whether it was developing nuclear weapons.

Sin Sang-chol, a North Korean representative to the United Nations, accused the monitoring agency of spying on his country at the behest of Washington and called its position “prejudiced and unfair.”

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammad Khazaee, defended his country’s nuclear development program as peaceful while lashing out at Israel for its creating a weapons program outside the nonproliferation treaty framework.

It is widely assumed that Israel has nuclear weapons, but the Israeli government has never acknowledged it.

Mr. Khazaee called the policy of trying to force Iran to stop nuclear enrichment before starting negotiations on economic and other incentives “an irrational and failed policy.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/28nuke.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[vector7]

IDF concludes large drill simulating double-front war in North

23:05 06/11/2008

By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: North, IDF, Israel News

The Israel Defense Forces Northern Command concluded a large-scale exercise Thursday which simulated a double-front conflagration with Syria and Lebanon.

The drill, codenamed "Shiluv Zro'ot III" (Crossing Arms III), was the second largest of its kind since the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Among this week's exercises was a strategic-level simulation involving all IDF commands.

The exercise drilled the Israel Air Force and the Home Front Command in dealing with protocol and problem-solving missions under the simulated firing of thousands of rockets and missiles into the heart of Israel's population centers.

In addition to the Northern Command, the air force and the home front command, Crossing Arms involved the IDF Military Intelligence directorate and the general staff. Unlike headquarter-level exercises from the past, Crossing Arms entailed the deployment of troops on the ground, comprising mainly reservists.

Additionally, helicopter gunships and airplanes were sent on mock raids and evacuation missions. The aircraft did not fire live ammunition, according to army sources.

During the drill, the striking aircraft were under orders to focus on imaginary long and medium-range missile launchers. The responsibility for knocking out shorter range rockets lay on ground troops that were ordered to carry out an on-paper invasion into Syrian and Lebanese territory.

Speaking before subordinate officers, Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi said that the importance attached to Crossing Arms III stemmed from the fact that it involved all IDF operational arms, and from the fact that it was put together in a way which internalized the lessons of the Second Lebanon War.

During the exercise, Ashkenazi flew aboard a Boeing Integrated Defense Systems AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopter. He also went aboard an Israel Navy submarine. Other visitors included President Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Major-General Yishai Bar - who commanded one of the drill's assault armies under Northern Command Chief Gadi Eizenkot - announced his retirement during the drill. Yishai said he will retain his position as commander of the IDF's all-purpose reserves army, but will do so as a reservist himself.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1035085.html

[vector7]

IDF: Lebanese Infrastructure at Risk in Next War

11/07/08, 10:51 AM

by Hana Levi Julian

(IsraelNN.com) IDF officials have selected their primary targets in case they are faced with returning to battle with the Hizbullah guerrilla organization in the north, and say next time they will also aim for the Lebanese infrastructure.

According to a report published in The Jerusalem Post, all Lebanese infrastructure would be considered a valid target due to Hizbullah’s influence in the country’s government. During the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the IAF strikes were limited to Hizbullah neighborhoods and rocket-launching positions.

Hizbullah has a number of Ministers in the Cabinet, as well as a significant faction in the parliament itself. The terrorist organization has been given veto power over parliamentary decisions, has been allowed to keep its private military force and has even been permitted to develop its own weapons supply.

The group’s influence is also expected to grow in the next elections, slated to be held in 2009.

More to the point, its military force at present is four times stronger than it was at the start of the Second Lebanon War, with a current weapons stockpile of some 40,000 rockets.

Two years ago, the southernmost target in Israel within range of Hizbullah rockets was Hadera. According to the Post, that is no longer the case: currently Arad, Yeruham and Dimona, with its nuclear reactor, are all within reach.

Lebanon’s political factions plan to discuss the fate of Hizbullah’s weapons stockpile in context of the formation of a national defense strategy for the country when they resume talks on December 22.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/128283

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Report: Obama views 'have serious implications for Israel'

TEL AVIV — U.S. President-elect Barack Obama can be expected to have a rocky relationship with Israel, according to a new report.

The Begin-Sadat Center cited Obama's plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq and reconcile with Iran and Syria in concluding that the forthcoming Obama administration was likely to clash with the next Israeli government.

"Obama's preferences regarding Iran and Iraq have serious implications for Israel," the report, titled "President Obama and the Middle East Challenge," said.
"If the U.S. were to leave Iraq unstable, with the perception being one of American weakness and failure, it will strengthen the resolve of all radical forces in the region that threaten Israel and its de facto allies in the Arab world, such as Jordan."

The report, authored by Jonathan Rynhold, said Republican loser Sen. John McCain marked the "more comfortable option for Israel." Rynhold envisioned tense relations between Obama and any Likud-led government in Israel. Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu has been leading in most polls in the race for Israel's next prime minister.

"If Netanyahu does form the next Israeli government, there could be difficult times ahead," the report said. "This has happened previously, when Shamir and Bush Senior, as well as Clinton and Netanyahu, clashed in the 1990s. But this time Netanyahu's position would be weaker."

The report said Israel could no longer count on Republicans in Congress to temper Obama's policies in the Middle East. Instead, Obama would be supported by a Democratic-controlled Congress and a new Jewish lobby, "J Street," that would seek to undermine the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Rynhold, a senior research associate at BESA, said the Obama administration could retain several leading advisers long regarded as hostile toward Israel. The report cited former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Sen. Chuck Hagel, who could be pitted against the more pro-Israel Dennis Ross and Daniel Kurtzer.

"These different approaches could all find expression in parts of the future Obama administration," the report said. "In turn, this could lead to bureaucratic in-fighting and consequently policy incoherence, as has frequently occurred in the past."

The report envisioned a Middle East crisis at the onset of the Obama administration. Rynhold said Obama's foreign policy would be hampered by his lack of experience and dependent on his managerial and decision-making abilities.

"The central challenge for Obama in the Middle East is neither democratization nor securing a comprehensive resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict — though those are worthy long term objectives — but rather the maintenance of a stable pro-American balance of power in the region," the report said. "First and foremost that means dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue."

www.worldtribune.com

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IDF Raises Alert on Egypt Border

(IsraelNN.com) The IDF has raised its level of alert down on the border with Egypt after a Bedouin tribe captured 25 Egyptian soldiers at a guarding station ten kilometers from the border with Israel.

The purpose of the move is to prevent the events due to tensions there from crossing the border into Israel.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Ne...sh.aspx/155683

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Hezbollah chief sees no change in US foreign policy under Obama

Middle East News
Nov 11, 2008, 19:44 GMT

Beirut - The leader of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said late Tuesday that he expects to see no change in US foreign policy with the election of Senator Barack Obama as president.

'Don't exaggerate hopes nor give people high expectations so that no one is disappointed or makes miscalculations ... the American foreign policy will not change,' Nasrallah told supporters at Hezbollah's Martyrs Day in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Nasrallah, who spoke to the crowd of thousands via a huge television screen after Hezbollah fighters marched in a military parade, said, 'I don't want to anticipate events, but logic dictates...that he will not be more lenient or less unfair than his predecessor.'

Nasrallah in his speech accused Israel of operating multiple spy networks in Lebanon, vowing that 'the Israeli hand that attacks Lebanon will be cut off.'

'The spy network that was recently exposed is one of many operating in more than one arena and in more than one place,' the Hezbollah chief said, referring to a cell recently arrested by the Lebanese army, believed to be linked to Israel's Mossad.

'This is a serious matter and we must pay close attention to it - at this very moment there are spy planes flying over the Dahiya,' Nasrallah said, referring to the southern suburbs that are a hotbed of Hezbollah, while urging the Lebanese army to obtain anti-aircraft missiles.

Nasrallah also urged Arab nations to seek to ban Israeli President Shimon Peres from an upcoming interfaith summit, sponsored by the United Nations, to be held in at the New York UN headquarters Wednesday.

Peres and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni were to join UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait for dinner Tuesday ahead of the meeting.

Nasrallah accused Peres of being responsible for massacres both in Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories.

'They should kick Israel out of this conference and prevent Peres from going up on stage and speaking,' he concluded.

www.monstersandcritics.com

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Sinai Bedouin in armed revolt against Egypt, snatch general

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
November 12, 2008, 5:19 PM

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that for five days, around 1,000 armed young Bedouin tribesmen have been holding Egyptian positions along the Sinai-Israeli border south of Rafah to siege. The besiegers, mostly Tarabin, Azazme and Tihama tribesmen, have shut the troops in and reinforcements and supplies out. Egyptian General Mohammed Shaarawai and 50 soldiers were taken hostage until the insurrectionists’ demands are met. Three Bedouin were killed and an Egyptian officer and three soldiers injured in a clash that took place Tuesday, Nov. 11 - at the 19th stone on the Egyptian-Israeli border 18 kilometers south of Rafah. The gun battles erupted Saturday, Nov. 11, when Egyptian troops posted at the Nitzana border post opened fire on a suspected drug smugglers’ truck, killing the Bedouin driver.
Hundreds of armed tribesmen in pick-up trucks bent on revenge swarmed to the scene and began shooting up the Egyptian border guards.

Tuesday evening, Bedouin boosted their siege force against the Egyptian posts. Wednesday, the Bedouin offensive assumed the form of an organized uprising when their chief commander handed the Egyptian officers a list of eight demands for lifting the siege and releasing their captives:
1. All Bedouin incarcerated in Egypt or Sinai must be unconditionally released,
2. Court sentences passed by Egyptian courts against Bedouin, some in absentia, must be annuled.
3. Egyptian security operations in the Sinai Peninsula must honor Bedouin customs,
4. Egyptian officers and troops guilty of crimes against the Bedouin population should be prosecuted.
5. Egyptian officers proved to have violated the Sinai population’s social fabric must be fired.
6. Cairo must formally recognize Bedouin property rights over their places of habitation and grazing lands.
7. Egypt must funnel funds to ease poverty and unemployment in the Peninsula.
8. A comprehensive three-year development plan for all of Sinai.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources note that many Bedouin were hunted down and detained by Egyptian police after the string of al Qaeda terrorist attacks against tourists and Egyptians in Sinai between 2004 and 2006 and accused of complicity. Tourists were warned off the scenic peninsula in recent years, taking with them jobs and aggravating Bedouin poverty. Land ownership is a sore point for the semi-nomatic desert tribesmen. Some of their lands on the enchanting Sinai coasts have been impounded for hotel operators. The Bedouin are increasingly hostile to the Egyptian authorities and simmer on the brink of insurrection. This turbulence also poses hazards for Israel. With Egyptian border police out of action on the Sinai-Israeli border, DEBKAfile’s military sources warn that the way is wide open for large-scale Palestinian terrorist elements to slip across into Israel for terrorist attacks.