Israeli-Arab War

[Jag]

U.S. plans 'air bridge' out of Lebanon, officials say

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/07/...ens/index.html
Saturday, July 15, 2006; Posted: 4:52 p.m. EDT (20:52 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Americans could be evacuated from Lebanon using an "air bridge" of fast-moving aircraft, U.S. military officials said Saturday.
Pentagon and U.S. State Department officials are working on contingency plans to get about 25,000 people out of Lebanon to escape Israel's military campaign, launched after two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hezbollah guerrillas.
An "air bridge" is the term for planes that would move in swiftly and ferry people out in quick succession.
Planners are focusing on flying people from the Lebanese capital of Beirut to the island of Cyprus, officials said. (Watch what options the Pentagon has for the trapped Americans -- 1:59)
But the U.S. military is also looking at other options for any evacuation, considering whether it is possible to dock ships or land aircraft in Beirut, given the large number of Hezbollah militants there.
The Israeli bombing of the Beirut International Airport rendered it unusable, and has complicated planning.
"As of the morning of July 15, we are looking at how we might transport Americans to Cyprus," the State Department said Saturday.
"Once in Cyprus, Americans can then board commercial aircraft for onward travel. Commercial airlines provide the safest and most efficient repatriation options to final destinations," it said.
The State Department added that the government would not provide free transportation but could provide repatriation loans "to those in financial need."
The State Department has set up a Middle East Task Force to coordinate policy and share information.
It is also asking Americans in Lebanon to stay in contact with the American Embassy in Beirut through phone numbers (+961) 4-542-600 or 4-543-600.

Jag

[Jag]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull JPost.com » Israel » Article Jul. 15, 2006 23:16 | Updated Jul. 16, 2006 0:50 'Israel has a window of opportunity to hit Hizbullah'

Israel believes it has a 48-72-hour "window of opportunity" to pound Hizbullah and damage its operational capabilities before the world steps in and stops the fighting, senior diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said Saturday night.
The officials noted positively that Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora had said Saturday at a press conference that his government would reassert government authority over all Lebanese territory - an allusion to the possibility of deploying the Lebanese army in south Lebanon, which is effectively controlled by Hizbullah.
Senior sources in the Prime Minister's Office said that dislodging Hizbullah from southern Lebanon and getting the government in Beirut to assert its authority over the area as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 1559 were among the primary goals of the IDF's current campaign. However, the officials said, the two abducted IDF soldiers also needed to be returned.
"It is a good plan," one senior diplomatic official said of Saniora's statement. "The big question is whether he has the ability to do it."
The official said the deployment of Lebanon's army south would be a good way out of the crisis. "But Israel would also like more time to inflict more damage on Hizbullah's operational capabilities," he said.
"It's an excellent declaration but he doesn't need our permission...We have to see what they do and not what they say," Vice Premier Shimon Peres told Israel's Channel 2 TV. He said Lebanon has to prove it is serious by deploying on the southern border. "A foreign body has entered the area and it's your job to get them out of there," he said.
During the press conference, Saniora - his voice shaking with emotion - called for an immediate cease-fire brokered by the United Nations. "We call for an immediate and comprehensive cease-fire under United Nations auspices," he said in a televised speech aired on local and Arab satellite television channels.
Saniora criticized Hizbullah without naming the group, saying Lebanon "cannot rise and get back on its feet if its government is the last to know." "The government alone has the legitimate right to decide on matters of peace and war because it represents the will of the Lebanese people," he said.
"We call for working to extend the state's authority over all its territories in south Lebanon, in cooperation with the United Nations, and working to recover all Lebanese territories and exercising full sovereignty of the state over those territories."
The assessment in Jerusalem of a 48-72 hour window of opportunity for further military action came as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz met Saturday evening in Tel Aviv to approve further action against Hizbullah. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana is expected in Jerusalem Sunday, as is a high-level United Nations delegation dispatched by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
In addition, Jerusalem is keeping a careful eye on declarations coming out of the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg, a meeting of EU leaders Monday, and the UN Security Council.
So far, one senior diplomatic official said, Israel has been able to fend off a "collapse on the diplomatic front." The official noted favorably the comments made by British Prime Minister Tony Blair Friday, in which he refused to condemn Israel, and US President George Bush's comments at the G8 summit during which he placed responsibility for the situation fully on Hizbullah's shoulders. Although many statements coming from foreign ministries around the world called for Israeli restraint and for the use of proportionate force, Foreign Ministry officials said that this was all within the framework of "agreed upon language that the EU is recycling - old formulas of restraint from both sides, and ideas of moral equivalency. But if you look at the basic components of the statements, Israel's main interests are being preserved - calls for Lebanon to implement Security Council Resolution 1559, and the release of the soldiers."


In addition, senior diplomatic officials said a significant anti-Hizbullah line has emerged in the Arab world that goes beyond Egypt and Jordan, and that there was anger at Hizbullah for destabilizing the region and plunging it into a crisis without any coordination with the Arab world.
Sharp rifts among Arab foreign ministers appeared at an emergency meeting in Cairo, with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal calling Hizbullah's actions "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible," and said they have set the whole region back years, "and we cannot simply accept them."
This position was reportedly accepted by representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. In his address, Saniora declared Lebanon a "disaster-stricken country" and accused Israel of executing an "immoral and illegitimate collective punishment" on the Lebanese people. He appealed for national unity and spoke to the Lebanese people, saying, "We will surpass the ordeal, and we will face up to the challenge. We will rebuild what the enemy has destroyed as we always did."

Jag

[samizdat]

"Russia" could put out the fire by threatening Syria, Iran and Israel. But nah! Putin the fire.

Israel has no other viable military option than to invade all of southern Lebanon and to annihilate Hezbollah in the Bekaa valley. Iran and Syria will not sit by and allow this to happen.

Full-scale warfare between these nations is high risk - high probability within 72-96 hours.

I hope Israel has decent coordinates on wmd and emps on target. Shema Israel.

[Sean Osborne]

Excepting the identification of the cruise missile used in the attack on the Israeli Navy Corvette, this report makes some good points about Iranian involvement.


Associated Press
Israel: Iran Aided Hezbollah Ship Attack
By RAMIT PLUSHNICK-MASTI , 07.15.2006, 04:26 PM

Elite Iranian troops helped Hezbollah fire a sophisticated radar-guided missile at an Israeli warship, Israeli officials said Saturday, describing an apparent surprise blow by militants who had been using only low-tech weapons.

Iran denied that it had any troops in Lebanon.

Israel initially believed that an aerial drone armed with explosives hit the warship, but it became clear that Hezbollah had used an Iranian-made C-802 missile to strike the vessel late Friday, an Israeli intelligence official said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information.

Iran's embassy in Beirut issued a statement late Saturday that called the Israeli allegations "meaningless."

It is "an attempt to escape reality with the aim of covering up (Israel's) inability to confront the Lebanese nation and resistance," the statement said.

One Israeli sailor was killed and three were missing after the attack. The ship was returning to its home port in Israel, the army said.

About 100 fighters from Iran's Revolutionary Guard helped import, equip and fire the missile at the Spear, a missile ship cruising off the coast of Lebanon, which is under an Israeli naval blockade, Israeli officials said.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned Israel's military offensive in Lebanon, telling state television "the Zionist regime behaves like Hitler," state television reported.

Hezbollah is widely believed to have been trained, funded and guided by the Revolutionary Guard since the militant group was founded during Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. The Islamic republic's elite corps of more than 200,000 fighters is independent of the regular armed forces and directly controlled by Iran's supreme leader.

"We can confirm that it (the ship) was hit by an Iranian-made missile launched by Hezbollah. We see this as a very profound fingerprint of Iranian involvement in Hezbollah," Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan told The Associated Press.

The Shiite militant group had been firing only highly inaccurate Katyusha rockets at Israeli targets. Israel appeared surprised that the guerrilla group had high-tech weapons.

Israeli officials speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information said that Hezbollah also has Iranian-made drones that are more accurate than missiles, as well as longer-range projectiles that could hit Tel Aviv, Israel's commercial hub.

An Israeli military official said the Spear's missile detection and deflection system was not on during the attack, apparently because the sailors did not anticipate such an attack.
The military official said the ship is one of the most technologically advanced in the Israeli fleet, boasting an array of high-tech missiles and a system for electronically jamming incoming missiles and other threats.

Nehushtan said another Hezbollah radar-guided anti-ship missile hit and sank a nearby Cambodian merchant ship around the time the Spear was struck. Twelve Egyptian sailors were pulled from the water by passing ships, Brig. Gen. Noam Fieg said.

Nehushtan said the body of one of the four Israeli soldiers missing in the attack was found on the damaged warship. Other Israeli military officials said two bodies had been found.

Israel launched an offensive after Hezbollah guerrillas crossed the Israel-Lebanon border on Wednesday and captured two Israeli soldiers. Israel has bombarded Lebanon's airport and main roads in the most intensive offensive against the country in 24 years, while Hezbollah has launched
hundreds of rockets into Israel.

http://www.forbes.com/business/healt...ap2881152.html

[Sean Osborne]

Special Reports : Sparking World War IV: Regional Middle East Conflict Erupts
16 July 2006

By Sean Osborne
Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs
sosborne@homelandsecurityus.com

In reviewing the volumes of open-source reporting coming from global media, I believe I have detected a minor error in the identification of the type of missile which struck and nearly sank an Israeli Navy Corvette Ahi-Hanit this past Friday. Even if my analysis is incorrect, the utilization of such cruise missiles is proof at this early stage that this war is being fought by major regional powers – Israel and Iran, both of whom are suspected of possessing nuclear weapons in various states of development.


Media reports all consistently report the missile as having been an Iranian-manufactured C-802, code named “SACCADE”. My research leads me to assess these reports are slightly inaccurate and a mis-identification of what was actually multiple launches of an Iranian-manufactured cruise missile known as the C-801, code name “SARDINE”. The C-802 and C-801 cruise missiles are both based upon the same Chinese Communist “SILKWORM” family of missiles. Israeli military authorities, who are speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of Iranian involvement in direct military action against IDF forces, are providing some strong hints to buttress my analysis.Therefore, the IDF have now learned that they have engaged in direct military action against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Lebanon and well as the IRGC-subservient Hezbollah military troops.

The multiple launches are identified in that two of these missiles were fired at the state-of-the-art Israeli Navy Eilat-class, Saar-5 corvette Ahi-Hanit and at least one other of these short range cruise missiles hit and sank an Egyptian-flagged merchant ship at the same time. To repeat, this missile is an Iranian-made copy of the Communist Chinese version, which itself is a reverse-engineered French-made Exocet cruise missile. The C-801 “SARDINE”, is a 19-foot long, radar guided cruise missile (also referred to as the “KARUS” by the Iranian military) can be fired from a launcher mounted to the rear of a flat bed truck or a semi-trailer. Thus, in the future these missiles can pop up very unexpectedly almost anywhere along the Lebanese littoral until Israel secures the coast from further access by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp troops who are operating crews for these missiles.

ANALYSIS

In order to progress and bring this conflict to a quick and resounding resolution, Israel will find it necessary within the next 72 hours to send a massive military presence into Lebanon as far north along the coast as Beirut and also up the length of the interior Bekaa Valley bordering Syria where IRGC and Hezbollah forces are massed.

Make no mistake about this war, it is a major engagement of WMD-armed regional military forces which could, and most likely will, prove to be an existential engagement for them. Engagements such as these, particularly when the Iranian theocracy deems it necessary to annihilate the Jewish state, has the inherent potential to become a full-scale world war in very short order. More than just a regional war with unknown destructive potential, this war is in the truest sense a continuation of the clash of civilizations both sides have presumed would occur at some point in time.

We have arrived at that threshold.

http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/si...hp?storyid=414

[Aplomb]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203851,00.html

Rockets Hit Haifa in Northern Israel, Killing Eight

Sunday, July 16, 2006

HAIFA, Israel — Lebanese guerillas fired a relentless barrage of rockets into the northern Israeli city of Haifa on Sunday, killing eight people at a train station and wounding seven others in a dramatic escalation of a five-day-old conflict that has shattered Mideast peace.

Soon afterward, Israeli warplanes hit the south Beirut stronghold of Hezbollah with at least six airstrikes, shaking the Lebanese capital and sending up a cloud of thick smoke. Hezbollah's firing of at least 20 rockets at Haifa came after Israel unleashed its fiercest bombardment yet of Beirut, reducing apartment buildings to rubble and knocking out electricity in many areas of the city.

U.S. officials were monitoring violence in Lebanon hour-by-hour to decide whether to evacuate an estimated 25,000 Americans, possibly to the neighboring Mediterranean island of Cyprus. About 350 people — most of them Europeans — were evacuated Saturday night and early Sunday from Lebanon to Cyprus through Syria on Italian military flights. (Full story)

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said there would be "far-reaching consequences" for the Haifa attack. Black smoke rose over the city. Air-raid sirens wailed as the dead and wounded were evacuated. Rockets also hit an oil refinery, gas storage tanks and a busy street during morning rush hour.

Israeli authorities warned residents across the north and in the central city of Tel Aviv to be on heightened alert, reflecting the longer range of the missile attacks. They blamed Syria and Iran for providing guerrillas with more sophisticated weaponry, raising the specter of a wider regional confrontation. (Full story)

At the Vatican, Pope Benedict XVI expressed grave concern over the escalation of fighting in Lebanon and denounced terrorism and retaliation in the Holy Land.

Sunday brought the sharpest escalation since fighting began last Wednesday after Hezbollah guerillas penetrated Israel in brazen raid, killing eight soldiers and capturing another two. The fighting opened a second front for Israel, which was already battling Hamas-linked Islamic militants in the Gaza Strip following the capture of an Israeli soldier June 25.

Israeli troops, tanks and helicopter gunships re-entered northern Gaza on Sunday, firing missiles and exchanging gunfire with armed Palestinians. Three militants were killed.

Masked militants in Gaza vowed Sunday to launch more rockets at Israel "to show solidarity with the twin of our resistance," referring to Hezbollah.
The attack on Haifa raised Israel's death toll from the fighting to at least 24, including 12 civilians. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed 130 people, mostly civilians.

With the growing crisis, Israel expanded its mission from the immediate need to free the three soldiers to a campaign to halt rocket fire from Gaza and to neutralize Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iran and Syria are prime supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah, and Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal warned that any aggression against it "will be met with a firm and direct response whose timing and methods are unlimited."

Iran on Sunday again denied Israeli claims that it had troops in Lebanon and that it helped Hezbollah attack an Israeli warship on Friday, saying the guerrilla group could fend for itself without outside help.

Initially, it was believed that an unmanned drone laden with explosives had hit the Israeli warship; it later became clear that Hezbollah used what Israel described as an Iranian-made, radar-guided C-802 missile.

The army said Sunday that three sailors missing after the gunship attack were dead, raising the number of Israeli sailors killed in the attack to four.

The Islamic Republic also warned that expanding Israel's bombing raids to neighboring Syria would bring the Jewish state "unimaginable damages."
"Iran stands by the people of Syria," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said.

Hezbollah said it hit Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, with dozens of Raad-2 and Raad-3 missiles. But Israeli officials said Hezbollah — previously using relatively small Katyusha rockets — also launched at least four Iranian-made Fajr missiles, its first use of the weapons. The missiles have a range of 28 miles and a far larger warhead than the Katyushas.

Shaul Mofaz, an Israeli Cabinet minister and former army chief of staff, blamed Syria.

"The ammunition that Hezbollah used this morning ... is Syrian ammunition," he said. He compared Hezbollah to Al Qaeda, saying Israel should mount its operation accordingly.

One of the rockets hit the section of the Haifa station where crews perform maintenance on the trains, tearing a huge hole in the roof. About 30 people were working there at the time, Ofer Litzevski, train company official, said.

At the scene a body lay on a stretcher in a white bag.

Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav warned people against holding large gatherings and canceled all cultural events. Trains and buses were halted across northern Israel.

Hezbollah said it intentionally avoided hitting petrochemical installations in Haifa, according to a statement read on Al-Manar television, Hezbollah's main voice to the world.

"But the next time, it [Hezbollah] will not spare anything in Haifa and its surroundings," the statement said.

Israel had deployed a Patriot missile battery in Haifa Saturday to protect the city against surface-to-surface missiles. But the Patriot was not built to combat the kind of missiles that hit on Sunday, said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan, a member of the army's General Staff.

Rockets fired by Lebanese militants also hit Acco, Nahariya and several other northern towns, and residents of the region were told to head to bomb shelters. Israeli rescue teams said 20 people were injured in Haifa and Acco, four of them seriously.

During Israel's overnight attacks on Lebanon, Al-Manar TV was briefly knocked off the air. The Jiyeh power plant was in flames after being hit, cutting electricity to many areas in the capital and south Lebanon.

The evacuees, who included Spaniards, Italians, Austrians, Czechs and Irish — were flown to Cyprus' Larnaca airport on five flights from Latakia, said Giorgos Yiangou, a foreign ministry official. They were carried out by Italian C-130 military transport planes.

Large sections of Beirut were covered in fine white dust from the barrage. Fires ranged, and heaps of rubble and twisted metal covered entire city blocks near the Hezbollah compound in the city's southern district, known as Dahiyah. The steel gates of the compound were mangled.

One building collapsed on its side; other apartment buildings were reduced to rubble or had their upper floors collapsed into those below. Broken furniture, blankets, mattresses, clothes and stuffed toys were scattered on the streets.

The Dahiyah district was empty except for guerrillas and a few residents who returned to collect belongings before taking refuge elsewhere.

"We want to sleep on our own pillows in the shelter," Mariam Shihabiyah, a 39-year-old mother of five said as she emerged from scrounging supplies from her wrecked apartment. "I just want them and our clothes, that's all ... Can you believe what happened to Dahiyah?"

A copy of the Quran, Islam's holy book, lay in the street, its dusty pages fluttering. A Hezbollah gunman picked it up reverently lifted and kissed it.

[Aplomb]

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...276647,00.html

Syria vows harsh response if Israel attacks

Information minister says ‘Any aggression against Syria will have a firm and direct response not limited in time or means’; Iranian defense minister: Should Islamic world be forced to take military action, Israel will regret its crimes
Dudi Cohen and agencies

Syria vowed on Sunday a "Harsh and direct" response if it is attacked by Israel.

"Any aggression against Syria will have a firm and direct response not limited in time or means," Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said in a statement.

Syria is a main backer of Hizbullah, whose fighters captured Israeli soldiers in a cross-border operation on Wednesday, sparking Israeli reprisals that have so far killed more than 100 civilians in Lebanon.

Syrian President Bashar Assad said on Saturday that Syria will put its resources at the disposal of Lebanon to help cope with Israeli attacks devastating the country.

Meanwhile, Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammed Najjar said “should the Islamic world be forced to take military action, Israel will regret its crimes.

'There are no Iranian guards there'

The Fars news agency quoted Najjar as saying that “the US has dragged the entire region into a situation of war to ensure Israel’s security and to gain complete control of oil resources.”

Iran denied Israeli claims that it had troops in Lebanon and that it helped Hizbullah attack an Israeli warship, saying the guerrilla group could fend for itself without outside help.

“There are no (Iranian) guards there. Shipment of (Iranian) missiles to Hizbullah is also not correct,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters Sunday.

Israel said Saturday that 100 Iranian troops from the elite Revolutionary Guards were in Lebanon, and that they helped Hizbullah fire a sophisticated radar-guided missile at an Israeli warship blockading the Lebanese coast late Friday.

[Ryan Ruck]

Spirits Are High in Syria’s Capital as Leaders Openly Show Support for Hezbollah

DAMASCUS, Syria, July 15 — The mood here in Syria’s capital was defiant, even gleeful, on Saturday as Hezbollah continued its rocket attacks on northern Israel.

Pop radio stations played jingoistic military marches, and the state-run daily newspaper, Tishreen, reported on a meeting of the ruling Syrian Baath Party by saying, “participants expressed Syria’s firm stance in support of the Lebanese national resistance.”

A Damascus businessman who would give only his first name, Mustafa, said: “I am 100 percent very happy. All of the Syrian people are happy, because we consider Hezbollah as being one of us.”

Though Syria has long supported militant anti-Israel organizations, including Hamas and Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia in Lebanon with strong ties to Syria and Iran, such public directness on the subject is new, analysts say. They say the government is voicing such sentiments in an attempt to appeal to the Syrian masses.

“Yesterday the Syrian Baath party expressed its full support and sympathy for Hezbollah,” said Marwan Kabalan, a political science professor at Damascus University. “It is overt now, because this is no longer something the government wants to hide. People here are very emotional about the whole situation, and many of them wish that Syria would get up and join Hamas and Hezbollah in their battle against Israel.”

A half-dozen Syrians interviewed at random in Damascus cafes all said that they admired Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, for using military action to back his anti-Israeli remarks.

“Nasrallah has caused a great deal of embarrassment among the Arab leaders,” Dr. Kabalan continued. “He is seen as the only Arab leader who can stand by his words and resist Israel.”

Imad Fauzi Shueibi, a political analyst who often works as a consultant to the Syrian government, laughed as he said that he believed that Israel was being drawn into a trap if it thought it could successfully fight on two, or even three, fronts.

Israel and the United States have said that they attribute a supporting role in Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel to Syria, and many Syrians are now talking about the possibility of a battle with Israel in the Golan region.

“I am laughing because I am so happy to see that in Israel there are these very stupid leaders,” Dr. Fauzi Shueibi said. “Israel has nothing to gain by changing the balance of power in the region. To fight on two fronts at the same time is stupid; if they try to open three fronts, that will be madness.”

“No one can believe that this will stop without a huge victory for Hezbollah and for Syria,” he added. “I haven’t felt so optimistic since 1973. I think we are closing the noose on Israel. This may be the last battle, and we may be able to redraw the map of the Middle East, but not on the schedule of America’s plan for the greater Middle East.”

As Israel continued its airstrikes on Lebanon, many Lebanese began flooding into Syria over the past several days, leading some Syrians to worry about a possible refugee crisis.

Syria already serves as a temporary home for hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees, and according to Syrian government figures, more than 17,000 Lebanese refugees crossed into Syria on Friday alone.

At Jdayat-Yabbus, a Syria border town, Lebanese refugees said Friday that the price of a taxi from Beirut to Damascus, normally about $50, had been driven up to $500 or more for what is usually a two-hour ride but could now stretch to five hours or more.

Those who could not afford taxis crammed into flatbed trucks; others took the bus to Chtaura, a Lebanese border town, and then crossed on foot, walking several miles in the brutal sun and carrying their luggage on their heads.

Many were from the southern suburbs of Beirut, which have come under heavy attack by Israeli warplanes because of Hezbollah’s strong presence there.

Hassan, an automobile mechanic from southern Beirut who declined to give his last name, was traveling Friday in a flatbed truck brimming with 15 young children, all looking tired and miserable in the midday sun.

He said he was bringing the children — two his own and the rest nieces and nephews — to stay with distant relatives in Syria.

“We haven’t slept in three days,” he said. “The Israelis are bombing shopping malls and television stations. The children are very frightened, and so we are bringing them to Syria for their safety.”

Syrian analysts noted with some pride that Syria will have a central role in any peace agreement, and that the United States may now be forced to make a deal with Syria because of Hezbollah’s actions.

“Syria has demonstrated once again that it can’t be marginalized,” said Dr. Kabalan, the political science professor. “It has succeeded in turning the tables on the Americans. Syria has demonstrated successfully that it is still here and still in control.”

[Ryan Ruck]

Israeli Army Using Bunker-Busters Against Hizbullah Leadership, IDF Infantry Mobilized, Syria Mobilizing

The IDF on Sunday mobilized a reserve infantry division in preparation for a possible ground incursion into south Lebanon, The Jerusalem Post has learned. The move was intended as the beginning of a new effort to push Katyusha rocket launching cells away from the Israel-Lebanon border.

The division was setting up command posts along the northern border, while tanks and armored personnel carriers were being transported northward.

A senior IAF officer revealed to the Post on Sunday afternoon that the IDF was using bunker-buster bombs to strike at senior Hizbullah officials in hiding throughout Beirut and Lebanon. According to the officer, several of the bunker hideouts were hidden under civilian parking lots.

The officer also said that the air force had encountered some resistance, including the firing of anti-aircraft shells at IAF aircraft.

Since the Lebanon operation began, the IAF has launched close to 2,000 sorties over Lebanon. According to the officer, the strikes were conducted under the assumption that the Hizbullah had and would use shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missiles.

In addition, overnight strikes in northern Lebanon near Tyre killed several senior Hizbullah officials. On Sunday, the Post was told, the IDF destroyed five long-range rocket launchers in southern Lebanon, some of which were used to fire rockets at northern Israel over the past few days, including at Haifa.

Meanwhile, Al-Arabiya television reported that the Syrian military was mobilizing its own reserve divisions.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz insisted on Sunday afternoon that the IDF was not going to invade south Lebanon as yet.

While Katyusha rockets continued to rain down on northern Israel, the IDF pounded Lebanon on Sunday for the fifth straight day.

On Sunday afternoon, the army called on the residents of south Lebanon to leave. Shortly thereafter, the IAF succeeded in hitting arms warehouses in southern Lebanon, as well as 20 mobile Katyusha launching crews in the area. Since Sunday morning, dozens of launchers have been targeted.

The IDF noted that it was largely focusing on destroying the rocket-launching crews, in order to prevent further bombardments of Israel's northern residents.

Meanwhile, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian close ally of Hizbullah, said that Israel's bloody assault could push desperate Lebanese citizens to sacrifice their lives to defend their country - and even commit acts of terrorism.

He added, however, that the Lebanese "will not surrender," and pleaded for the UN Security Council to "stop violence and arrange a cease-fire" so discussions could take place.

Lahoud also accused the Security Council of delaying intervention to stop Israel's military operation, thereby giving them extra time to make Lebanon surrender to its conditions.

Lebanon's Cabinet issued a statement Sunday saying the country faces "real annihilation" by Israel.

"We are facing a real annihilation carried out by Israel," Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said after an emergency cabinet meeting.

So far, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed 130 people.

Earlier in the day, the IAF bombed the building in Beirut from which the Hizbullah-run television station, Al-Manar, is broadcast.

The station went off the air for a short while after the airstrike but then resumed broadcasting about six minutes later. The station is Hizbullah's main communications link, and most of the information the world has received from the group about recent fighting has been issued by Al-Manar.

It was the fourth time in recent days that the IDF has targeted the building.

Before the Al-Manar strike, an IDF attack on Hizbullah's main headquarters in southern Beirut destroyed the compound and sprouted new rumors that Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah was wounded in the strike.

Hizbullah promptly denied any such rumor.

Two major explosions echoed from the Haret Hreik neighborhood and reverberated across Beirut after the strike. IAF planes returned about 20 minutes later and struck the southern suburbs again. Witnesses said it was the same neighborhood that houses Hizbullah headquarters, and which has been hit several times over the past three days.

Al-Manar said that a bridge linking the al-Hazmiyah district to the road that leads to the airport, south of the capital, was also targeted in what were the heaviest raids since Israel launched its offensive on Wednesday.

On Saturday evening, Israel destroyed all the radar stations along the Lebanese coast, the IDF said.

In addition, the IAF attacked Beirut on Saturday evening for the first time in the four-day-old offensive, striking a lighthouse and the Beirut seaport.

A short while earlier, the IAF fired missiles into the seaport of Lebanon's northernmost city of Tripoli in the deepest attack into Lebanese territory since fighting began four days ago.

Witnesses said helicopter gunships and gunboats fired four missiles into the port area, hitting grain silos.

The IAF also staged four bombing runs on residential areas inside the eastern city of Baalbek, where senior Hizbullah officials have residences or offices, witnesses said. Heavy black smoke billowed from the area and ambulances were seen rushing to the scene.

Earlier on Saturday IDF fighter jets struck the western side of bridges connecting between Lebanon and Syria. That target was the closest to Syria that was hit since the campaign in Lebanon began. The IDF said that the strike was meant to prevent the transport of weapons from Syria into Lebanon.

[Ryan Ruck]

Blair Accuses Iran, Syria of Causing Middle East Crisis

British Prime Minister Tony Blair for the first time accused Iran and Syria of causing the latest crisis in the Middle East.

Speaking after a bilateral meeting with US President George Bush, Blair said the two states wanted to 'inflate' tensions in the region.

'The fact is, there are those in that region, notably Iran and Syria, who don't want this process of democratisation and peace and negotiations to succeed,' he said.

All week Blair has been refusing to get into what he calls the 'blame game' while Bush has been openly critical of the links between Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah and Syrian and Iran.

But following his meeting with Bush as part of the G8 leaders' summit here, his line hardened considerably.

In return, Bush made a small concession, saying that while Israel 'every right to defend itself' against attack it should be 'mindful of the consequences.'

Bush said the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah 'started this'.

'One of the interesting things about this recent flare-up is that it helps clarify a root cause of instability in the Middle East and that's Hezbollah, Hezbollah's relationship with Syria, Hezbollah's relationship with Iran and Syria's relationship with Iran.'

'Therefore in order to solve this problem it's really important for the world to address the root cause.'

'Remember Hezbollah started this by capturing two Israeli soldiers and firing rockets into Israel.'

The two men met against a backdrop of more Israeli attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in retaliation for the kidnap of three of its soldiers and rockets being fired into the Jewish state.

[Ryan Ruck]

Hundreds In Metro Detroit Protest Israeli Attacks

Hundreds of Arab-Americans and Muslims rallied in the streets and mosques of metro Detroit Friday to protest Israeli attacks and call upon the U.S. government to help American citizens trapped in Lebanon. And they planned for more local protests in upcoming days.

In pouring rain, an estimated 500 protestors lined Warren Avenue -- the heart of east Dearborn's commercial district -- to demonstrate against Israel's push into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

"Stop Israeli terrorism" read one large banner held up by about 20 men, who gathered with others on Warren, near Schaefer road. Many waved Lebanese flags as drivers riding by honked their horns.

Youssef Fawaz, 23, of Canton Township, waved an American flag to show his support for U.S. citizens -- including his uncle -- trapped in Lebanon because of Israel's blockade.

Earlier in the day, about 300 packed the Islamic Center of Detroit to also protest Israel.

Loay Al-Fasih, 38, of Dearborn, who attended the rally at the center, said that his wife and children are stuck in the Gaza Strip even though they are all U.S. citizens.

But in local Jewish communities, many said that Israel has a right to defend itself against terrorism. And they were concerned about attacks by Hizballah on northern Israel.

"Israel was maintaining peaceful borders until they were attacked on two borders," said Allan Gale, Associate Director of the Jewish Community Council of Metropolitan Detroit. Gale said the Jewish community regrets civilian casualties on both sides, but he added that while groups like Hamas and Hizballah deliberately target civilians, Israel does not.

Other events Friday included a morning press conference with Muslim leaders, who claimed that Israel is using excessive force.

And late Friday, many gathered at the Lebanese American Heritage Club in Dearborn for a town hall meeting. A memorial service is planned for Sunday at the Islamic Center of America in Dearborn.

And another rally is scheduled for Tuesday.

In West Bloomfield, Abdul Brinjikji, 48, worried about three of his children that he said were trapped in a bunker in Lebanon. He and other Arab-Americans have contacted the U.S. State Dept. to seek help in evacuating family members. The U.S. State Dept. estimates there are about 25,000 U.S. citizens in Lebanon, according to the Arab-American Institute, based in Washington D.C.

[Ryan Ruck]

Also, for anyone unfamiliar with the Mideast area, here is a decent map for reference:

[Jag]

Rice: No point in temporary ceasefire

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice backs Israel's military operation in Lebanon; US government says it has agreed to supply Israel with jet fuel to feed its warplanes
Yitzhak Benhorin

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that for the time being the United States is not interested to assist in negotiating a ceasefire.

There is no point in achieving a ceasefire so long as Hizbullah and Hamas are capable of firing rockets at Israel, and by doing so to breach it.

Extremists in Hamas, Hizbullah, and their supporters in Syria and Iran do not want to see a resolution of these situations on the basis of 1559 and the road map, because then they would have no reason for violence," Rice said.
The US government will object the reaching of a cease-fire at the G-8 summit or at the United Nations.

"Our message to Israel is, look, defend yourself," Bush said. "But as you do so, be mindful of the consequences. So we've urged restraint."

The Pentagon notified Congress of plans to sell Israel jet fuel valued at up to USD 210 million "to keep peace and security in the region".

"The jet fuel will be consumed while (Israel's) aircraft (are) in use to keep peace and security in the region,"
the notice to Congress said.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...276803,00.html

Jag

[American Patriot]

Nasrallah: ‘We Yearn for Ground Conflict’
Arutz Sheva ^ | 7-16-06


(IsraelNN.com) Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah spoke on the terrorist organization’s television station, al-Manar on Sunday evening, his first appearance since the beginning of the Re-engagement War last week.

“The Israeli intelligence could not penetrate our organizations,” taunted Nasrallah in remarks aimed at the IDF and Israeli security services. “They say that we have only dozens of missiles, but if you believe this and plan your moves accordingly, you will fail.”

Nasrallah said he looked forward to ground operations, and told the Lebanese public that it was in a historic phase which “has many hopes for saving the entire Islamic nation.”

Addressing his remarks to the IDF leadership, he added, “The Hizbullah fighters expect and yearn for a ground conflict with the Zionist ground forces. In this conflict the Israelis will be defeated.”

[Sean Osborne]

Syria is going to ensure an Israeli response with increasing levels of provocations. Already there is fire upon Israel from Syrian positions - this will increase until Israel is forced to respond directly to the source of the fires from Syrian territory.

Ladies and Gentlemen -- this one is for "keeps".

[Ryan Ruck]

... US government says it has agreed to supply Israel with jet fuel to feed its warplanes

...

"The jet fuel will be consumed while (Israel's) aircraft (are) in use to keep peace and security in the region,"
the notice to Congress said.

But they didn't say where that fuel is coming from.

Perhaps it will come from Baghdad International, Taji, Kirkuk, or Basra on their way too and from Iran!

[American Patriot]

Can Israel Strike Iran?
Powerlineblogs ^ | 7/16/2006 | John Hinderaker

Last night, we posted Steven den Beste's interesting email, which agreed with Paul's observation that ti would be desirable for Israel to attack Iran, but questioned whether it is logistically feasible for Israel to do so. Paul responded in an update earlier today, and we received an enormous number of emails from readers who had comments on Israel's strategic capabilities, as well as more unorthodox suggestions as to how an attack might be carried out. We can't begin to quote them all but here are a few.

Froggy Ruminations proposes a plan:

If Israel decides to go after Iran, then that means they will have already begun to go at it with Syria beforehand. They might run a SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses) package east through Syria as a feint to hit Damascus (which would be a target rich environment anyway) and pull through some heavy airlift assets (C-130s etc) and choose a remote airfield in eastern Syria and seize it Ranger style. If their SEAD is effective, they could set up shop at this airfield, bring in fuel and ammo and mount a sustained bombing campaign against Iranian targets at will. Most of Syria's military forces will be on the other side of the country and if they attempt to go after their FOB, the IAF could hammer them in transit. Besides, the IDF could destroy all roads leading to said airfield, and mine the shit out of the hinterland effectively creating an island out of their new base. Not a simple plan to execute to be sure, but one that could put them in striking distance of Iranian nuke sites. If they could pull off Entebbe in the 1970s, they could do this now. Jim Johnson rejects den Beste's main premise:

Israel currently has at least 50 F-16Is and over 25 F-15Is all of which are capable of striking Iran with some ease with the use of external conformal fuel fuel tanks. They can do so without even significantly penetrating Iraqi air space if that is an issue. Both aircraft were purchased with Iran in mind - with some joking about the "I" standing for Iran. Both aircraft have a range, fully loaded, of over 2000 km which places virtually all the publicly mentioned high value Iranian targets within range including Tehran. There is even enough margin to allow some loiter time over the targets. The likely ordinance would be the BTU-28 which was purchased in quantity from the US as recently as last year and was designed to be deep earth penetrating. Whether they can penetrate deeply enough to collapse the Iranian structures is not available in the public literature - if known at all. Both aircraft are capable of carrying the BTU-28. And if the need truly arises they can allocate aircraft for one way missions in a number of ways without losing the pilots although these would likely be nuclear missions. Cruise missiles, conventionally armed, are likely to be of limited value directly against hard targets although they could be very useful in pinning down any Iranian attempt to intercept a bombing mission. Most likely though, the Iranians will have very little available to effectively oppose an attack of the type Israel can launch.

It should be kept in mind that an attack of this sort does not have to be a one shot attack - and likely won't be. There will be plenty of time to reload and fire again. *** If the Israeli's can add 3-5 years to the Iranian nuclear program on a static basis that is well worth it - particularly if they extract high additional costs and since they can always do it again.

Other readers suggested a variety of ways in which Israel might effectively strike Iran. John Arcari notes that Iran's dependence on foreign refining capacity is a key weakness:

Israel, or the USA need to be very careful about an attack on Iran, because millions of the Iranian people like Americans, and would overthrow their present government if we just stepped forward and helped them. So, we do not want to devastate the country at large. The weak link in the Iranian economy is an internal shortage of oil to gasoline refining capability. Iran, actually imports huge amounts of gasoline to sustain its economy. My plan is, forget the Nuke problem for the moment, forget the country infrastructure, and forget causing enormous pain to the general population. Here's how! You destroy all oil to gasoline refining capacity, along with destroying the all ability to pump oil in Iran. Actually, this ends the story. These two actions render the country bankrupt overnight, but leave the general population whole to get rid of the present government post haste. Let Iran spend all its money rebuilding that which allows the country to function.

Van Laskey suggests attacking Syria and putting Iran in the position of coming to it's client's defense:

Saddam's chemical arsenal is likely hidden in Syria's Bekaa Valley which is also home to Hezbollah terrorists. *** Iran has stated that Israel attacking Syria will draw them into the conflict. Israel should strike at Bekaa and draw Iran in. Call their bluff. Their army is untested & hasn't fought a war in twenty five years. Its air capability is probably far weaker then the IAF. Its "navy" would be sunk in the first hour. Attack Syria's Bekaa and force Iran to make the first move. Eliminating the cancer in Bekaa is a bonus. And a number of readers came up with more limited and creative ways of striking at Iran, the most elaborate (some would say far-fetched) of which came from Dafydd ab Hugh

[American Patriot]

Hizbullah leader promises enemy 'more surprises'
Daily Star ^ | July 17, 2006 | Therese Sfeir


BEIRUT: In his third televised speech since the Israeli war on Lebanon, Hizbullah secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the resistance would use all possible means to defend Lebanese territory.

"Hizbullah is strong enough to achieve victory over the Israelis," he said. "The enemy cannot impose on us when and where to attack or how to react."

"We will continue. We still have a lot more and we are just at the beginning," Nasrallah said in a taped appearance aired on Sunday evening. "We promise them surprises in [any] confrontation."

"In the beginning, we started to act calmly, we focused on Israeli military bases and we didn't attack any settlement," Nasrallah said. "However, since the first day, the enemy attacked Lebanese towns and murdered civilians."

The resistance leader said Hizbullah militants had destroyed military bases, while the Israelis killed civilians and targeted Lebanon's infrastructure. He added that Hizbullah's arsenal had yet to take a direct hit "and so far we have used a small portion of our weaponry."

Addressing the Israeli Army, Nasrallah said: "The houses you attacked are occupied by innocent people; they don't contain any weapons or missiles."

"I also want to address the Israeli people and tell them 'Your government is lying to you. I tell you that you will be defeated,'" he said.

"I assure you that Israel has no idea about our capacities. We built our arsenal in a very secretive way," he said.

Nasrallah also commented on the rocket bombardment of the Israeli city of Haifa.

"As long as the enemy has no limits, we will have no limits," he said.

Nasrallah added that despite the violent and continuous raids on the South and Beirut's southern suburbs, "Hizbullah has not lost its "determination."

"They are planning to enter the Lebanese land," Nasrallah said. "We tell them that we are eagerly awaiting land confrontations. Any land confrontation will be good news for us."

Nasrallah also spoke directly to the Lebanese people.

"You are a great people," he said of the Lebanese. "We can depend on you to save Lebanon from humiliation. Don't worry about what is being destroyed, but we hope that the wounded will recover and that all the people will be safe."

Nasrallah also denied the presence of Iranian soldiers in Lebanon.

The resistance leader addressed Arab and Islamic countries, saying: "I know that your governments are incapable of doing anything, but you are concerned and should take a position over what is happening."

"If Israel achieved victory, all the Arab peoples would be humiliated and the US interference in our affairs would increase," he added. "Today, we have a historic opportunity to defeat our Israeli enemy."promises enemy 'more surprises'

[Sean Osborne]

The perfect map for this thread:

http://www.templebuilders.com/maps/israel.pdf

[Sean Osborne]

This one is also quite appropriate