Well, we're officially down to the wire on yet another election.

My prediction is a narrow win that really could go either way.

I'm pretty confident Trump is going to win my home state but I definitely don't think it's going to be by as large as his 10% margin in 2016. I'm seeing a lot more Biden signs in rural SW Ohio than I ever saw Hillary.

As for other areas of the nation, I've seen a lot of folks on ARFCOM who live in PA express some serious doubts that Trump carries PA again this time around. My gut tells me he also won't carry WI again either. The state is just too blue. I do think MI could stay red because of the revitalized industry in the state but in the midst of an economy battered by COVID it's shaky.

Where I think we could see issues are FL and AZ. In the last 4 years there's been a huge exodus of people from CA and NY. People fleeing CA have typically been headed to ID, TX, and AZ. ID and TX have been too deep red that they aren't going to go blue but, they are definitely well on their way to becoming purple. Of those, AZ is the one I have serious concerns about. It's been a historical swing state and only went to Trump by 4% in 2016. I'm afraid there's been too many Californians that have ended up there and may flip it blue this election. My other area of concern with FL is for the same reason but with New Yorkers in the place of Californians. In 2016 FL went Trump by an even narrower 2%.

If we weren't dealing with COVID and were still enjoying the pre-COVID economy in full swing I'd feel a lot more confident in Trump's chances and I think he'd stand a good chance of carrying PA and probably even WI. AZ and FL would also likely go his way too.

I can just as easily see Tuesday going this way:



As I can this:



or



Though I think he's done some good things, I've not been a huge Trump fan, really seeing him as just another big "our" government Republican with the out of control spending he's signed off on after campaigning to eliminate the national debt in 8 years to his absolutely terrible 2A record, really being politically equivalent to a 1960s-1970s Democrat or a bigger talking GWB that doesn't let the press walk all over him like he did. His biggest saving grace for me is that he isn't an American hating Commie and that's really the main reason I hope he can pull off a win.