First, I think that everyone should read
this article by Joel Skousen that was posted at NewsMax in 1999. While we have made advancements in the ABM field, as far as I know, most everything else mentioned still stands. Especially a number of the items dealing specifically with PDD-60…
Second, here is what I foresee…
I suspect that a limited nuclear strike will be launched against America. This strike will include our missile fields, our SSBN pens, nuclear stockpiles that could be used to retaliate, our major C3 targets (NORAD, etc.), Washington D.C., and perhaps a major city or two.
I don't believe that any large number of major cities, industrial, or infrastructural areas will be hit with nuclear strikes because, as was mentioned, our enemies would love to get these intact. Washington D.C. will be an exception because it would succeed in decapitating our national government and handicap our last line nuclear response – our subs – as detailed in that article above. The Axis will negate any need to "call off" the nuclear war simply by striking or otherwise attempting to neutralize/paralyze our nuclear forces. I couldn't begin to guess which major cities would be hit but, I suspect that two or so would be so as to make an example of them. This isn't to say that other cities may not have enhanced radiation warheads or CBWs launched against them but, the infrastructure in most major cities is far too valuable to just "glass".
In short, I believe that most hits will be against military targets and very few directly against civilian targets. Other civilian targets might be collateral damage to the military strikes but, that will be limited.
I would not be surprised if the Russians and Chinese use their silo based missiles in a first wave. After all, they know these are most vulnerable to reprisal attack and would want to use those first rather than risk losing them in retaliation. The next most likely to be used, I suspect, would be bomber launched cruise missiles and bombs as bombers cannot stay in the air indefinitely. Third would be submarine as they have very good staying time and can remain hidden for quite some time before needing resupplied or refueled. And last would be their mobile (rail and road) ICBMs. I suspect they will keep these mobile missiles for last because of their innate ability to remain almost completely hidden until use and then, somewhat even after. They are probably the most survivable of all nuclear weapons since they need minimal resupply, refueling, infrastructure, and oversight.
The majority of this strike will come from Russia as they have the most extensive nuclear forces of the rest of the Axis members. China will indeed play a part but not to the same degree as Russia. And, there is also a distinct possibility of ICMB/IRBM launches from rogue nations such as Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and perhaps other Central American sites to throw mass confusion into the mix. This confusion could buy valuable time for the more major Axis players.
Fallout from these strikes will not be as bad as many would have you believe with their "On The Beach" and various other "Doom and Gloom" scenarios. Hardened targets (silos and bunkers) will receive ground bursts that will produce fallout but, other softer targets such as sub pens and cities would be likely to receive air bursts which will produce minimal fallout. Remember, the Axis wants to deal with contaminated territory about as much as we do. It would hamper their progress and deny access to infrastructure if it is too severe.
As for EMP, I suspect that it will fall into the same category as the rest of the nukes. A good portion of our infrastructure is technology based. A massive EMP strike would destroy that and make it useless. Thus, if there are any EMP strikes, they will be limited to certain areas to disrupt military communication and operations.
With regard to our retaliation, I think that we'll hit them back fairly hard where it counts (Moscow, Beijing, major nuclear weapons sites, etc.). But, I think that the actual damage we inflict will be much less than many predict! The major reason being that I believe we will be taken by surprise by the effectiveness of Russia's national ABM shield. They have had decades to work on it by flouting the 1972 ABM treaty, by developing and deploying the newest interceptors (S-300 and S-400 systems), and by using nuclear tipped interceptors for maximum efficiency (as opposed to our kinetic kill interceptors). Right now, China is mass producing these S-300/400 systems on license from Russia. The other reason it will be less effective than forecasted is that Russia and China both have engaged in extensive Civil Defense sheltering and stockpiling programs.
Rick and falcon both bring up important variables such as nuclear terrorism and our national will to actually use nuclear weapons. There is no telling how these will pan out but, I suspect that they will indeed play a role.
As for the religious aspect that you bring up Honza, I believe we can see the beginnings of the repression that is in store, right now. We have a major assault underway against religion (except Islamofascism) by the irreligious left. One need only magnify what is going on now to get an idea of what is to come. China is a good example of where this religious persecution is ultimately headed.
All I can say is, it's going to be a bumpy road!
