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Oct 27, 2005 - Russia has quietly worked to forge a quasi-alliance of that to rival the US-led NATO, between current and future nuclear powers of Pakistan, China and Iran. This alignment is specifically geared toward confronting the US in a hotly contested market for geopolitical status in the Middle East and to dictate economic trends concerning natural resources in the region. Decision by the IAEA to refer Iran to the UN Security Council has also put Russia in a difficult position between choosing its long-term economic ties with the EU and US or short-term ones with Iran.
As the world debates the legality of the Iraq War, one only has to wonder about the short term memory in the political field where the international body has condemned the attack on Saddam but had virtually every western leader calling for his expulsion a decade ago. Easily forgotten is the fact that Iraqi defector General Hussein Kamal helped the UN inspectors in 1995 find more than 100 metal trunks and boxes containing information on nuclear, chemical and biological weaponry. He also aided UNSCOM to fish out high-grade missile components prohibited to Iraq which were supplied by eastern European countries and Russia itself. With new contracts for sophisticated missiles to Syria and nuclear technology to the hard-line government in Tehran, it is easy to speculate of another Iraq-like situation on the horizon for the West.
Kremlin-Tehran Relations
Today's dilemma for the Kremlin is international opposition of Iran's nuclear program which is being built by the Russia's nuclear industry itself. The Kremlin is facing mounting pressure to reassess its position on Iran, particularly with the US. The IAEA's vote in favour of referring the Islamic republic to the Security Council resulted in an abstention from Russia, which has vehemently opposed Washington's attempts to put the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions on the agenda. In Putin's defense, Russia has a much more important variable besides economics: left out in most discussions is that Tehran provides no support for Islamist insurgents in Russia's troubled Northern Caucasus. This is a result directly because of nuclear technology contracts between the two nations. The Kremlin however, may have to reassess its relationship with the Islamic republic should Tehran ever vary its strategy towards Islamic separatist movements on Russian territory. In addition, if Tehran were to achieve a nuclear weapons capability, Iran would represent a potential security threat on Russia's southern border. For this reason alone, Russia has made it a demand that all nuclear fuel would be sent back to Russia as a preventative measure. Iran in the meantime, has been working in overdrive to round up support for their nuclear aspirations, by threatening to sever economic ties with any countries supporting a US-backed resolution against it. This strategy will not work with Russia however, as it holds it's own major oil supplies and it is very doubtful that Iran would risk relations in light of its nuclear program contracts looming. Beijing-Tehran-Kremlin merry-go-round Meanwhile, China is becoming even more dependent on Iran for energy after plans to formulate African oil contracts have been rendered ineffective by Beijing. A November 2004 deal to "supply China with gas worth USD100 billion is likely rise to a total of $200 billion USD after a similar oil agreement" is finalised. Iran will export 10 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually for 25 years in return for Chinese investment in exploration and drilling. In return, the Iranians have stepped up their purchasing power for Chinese weapons technology complimented by Pakistani nuclear components bought on the Khan black market. Russia delivers weaponry and nuclear technology to its axis partners while China possesses a large market for products offered by the Russian military and a need for energy resources Iran provides. Iran in the meantime, gives Russia and China more valuable trump cards: impact of the global market in oil and vast influence in the Middle East. Something all three agree on as the number one element in combating the US's vast economy and regional dominance in the Middle East. These energy agreements between them are rendering the US administration's economic sanctions on Iran ineffective. However, the Russians must now assess the likelihood of being supplanted by China if they appear willing to trade favours with Washington and lose the confidence of Tehran. Iran may yet emerge as a leading member of a post-Cold War alliance which will work to undermine US regional objectives and alleviate pressure on its border with Iraq.
