Russia Is Making Very Dangerous Noises
Russia Is Making Very Dangerous Noises
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The world has noticed Russia's use of energy as a political weapon to pressure neighboring Western-oriented states. Now it appears that Russia does not intend to confine itself to energy to tame "intractable" neighbors but contemplates a far more conventional and well-tried weapon -- the use of military force.
The new Russian national security doctrine outlined by Russia's defense minister, Sergei Ivanov, on your editorial page -- "Russia Must Be Strong," Jan. 11 -- clearly states that Russia's top national security concern is the "internal situation" in some members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Mr. Ivanov justified military force in response to a "process that has a potential to pose a direct threat to Russia's security, or to change the geopolitical reality in a region of Russia's strategic interest." Of course, changing "the geopolitical reality" can involve matters of national sovereignty for Russia's neighbors -- as it did when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO.
Describing the situation on its borders as "uncertain," Russia accuses its neighbors of being responsible for political or military threats. However, the core problems of instability, the existence of criminal enclaves and illegal separatism that plague many post-Soviet states are made in Moscow. The recent explosions of Russian gas pipelines interrupting exports to Georgia and Armenia are another example of violent instability on Russian soil that has grave consequences for Russia's neighbors.
One of the primary objects of Mr. Ivanov's concern is the internal situation in Georgia, where Russia supports illegitimate separatist puppet regimes of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Under the guise of "peacekeeping" and "mediation," Russia has de facto annexed the territories. Russia's violations of international law and Georgian sovereignty include: distributing Russian passports; illegal operation of Russian banks and cell phone companies; and the installation of Russian military and intelligence officers to senior leadership positions in the unrecognized "governments" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
One Russian appointee, the "defense minister" of South Ossetia, Russian Army Col. Barankevich, recently bragged about his intention to shoot down any aircraft flying over "South Ossetian territory." This is very dangerous considering that Georgia's airspace is used by international civilian flights every day -- and that the OSCE monitoring mission discovered a sophisticated and illegal Russian ZU-23 anti-aircraft system in South Ossetia.
Russian peacekeepers turned a blind eye to a massive demonstration of heavy armor -- in theory prohibited -- in a military parade celebrating the "independence day" of South Ossetia. Military shipments in violation of international agreements originate from Russia and sustain the separatist regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Georgia is absolutely committed to a peaceful resolution of the Abkhaz and South Ossetia issues. We are working with our partners and the U.N. and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to thaw these frozen conflicts so that the citizens of these regions can enjoy the benefits of freedom, democracy and economic growth that the rest of Georgia has seen since the Rose Revolution. We hope to work with the Russia that agreed -- after years of stonewalling -- to remove its troops illegally stationed on Georgian soil, and helped facilitate a peaceful end to a renegade dictator's rule in the Georgian region of Adjara in 2004. But there is a very different Russia as well: the Russia of Sergei Ivanov that reserves a right to use military force against neighbors to prevent geopolitical changes, uses energy to blackmail its democratic neighbors, and provides aid and comfort to illegal separatists outside its borders.
Our European community needs to take note of the dangerous trends in our northern neighbor.
