The Axis are working in every region on the planet to diminish US influence...
The Ending of America's Financial-Military Empire
By MICHAEL HUDSON | June 15th
The city of Yekaterinburg, Russia's largest east of the Urals, may become known not only as the end of the road for the tsars but of American hegemony too; as the place not only where US U-2 pilot Gary Powers was shot down in 1960, but where the US-centered international financial order was brought to ground.
Challenging America is the prime focus of extended meetings in Yekaterinburg, Russia (formerly Sverdlovsk) today and tomorrow (June 15-16) for Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The alliance is comprised of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrghyzstan and Uzbekistan, with observer status for Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia. It will be joined on Tuesday by Brazil for trade discussions among the so-called BRIC nations—Brazil, Russia, India and China.
The attendees have assured American diplomats that it is not their aim to dismantle the financial and military empire of the United States. They simply want to discuss mutual aid—but in a way that has no role for the United States, for NATO or for the US dollar as a vehicle for trade. US diplomats may well ask what this really means, if not a move to make US hegemony obsolete. After all, that is what a multipolar world means. For starters, in 2005 the SCO asked Washington to set a timeline to withdraw from its military bases in Central Asia. Two years later the SCO countries formally aligned themselves with the former CIS republics belonging to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), established in 2002 as a counterweight to NATO.
Yet the Yekaterinburg meeting has elicited only a collective yawn from the US and even European press despite its agenda—nothing less than the replacement of the global dollar standard with a new financial and military defense system. A Council on Foreign Relations spokesman has said he hardly can imagine that Russia and China can overcome their geopolitical rivalry, suggesting that America can use the divide-and-conquer that Britain used so deftly for many centuries in fragmenting foreign opposition to its own empire. But George W. Bush ("I'm a uniter, not a divider") built on the Clinton administration's legacy in driving Russia, China and their neighbors to find a common ground when it comes to finding an alternative to the dollar and hence to the US ability to run balance-of-payments deficits ad infinitum.
What may prove to be the last rites of American hegemony began already in April at the G-20 conference, and became even more explicit at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 5, when Mr. Medvedev called for China, Russia and India to "build an increasingly multipolar world order." What this means in plain English is: We have reached our limit in subsidizing the United States' military encirclement of Eurasia while also allowing the US to appropriate our exports, companies, stocks and real estate in exchange for paper money of questionable worth.
The artificially maintained unipolar system," Mr. Medvedev spelled out, is based on "one big center of consumption, financed by a growing deficit, and thus growing debts, one formerly strong reserve currency, and one dominant system of assessing assets and risks." At the root of the global financial crisis, he concluded, is the fact that the United States makes too little and spends too much, particularly its vast military outlays, such as the stepped-up US military aid to Georgia announced just last week, the NATO missile shield in Eastern Europe and the US buildup in the oil-rich Middle East and Central Asia.
The sticking point for all these countries is the ability of the United States to print unlimited amounts of dollars. Overspending by U.S. consumers on imports in excess of exports, U.S. buy-outs of foreign companies and real estate, and the dollars that the Pentagon spends abroad all end up in foreign central banks. These banks then face a hard choice: either to recycle these dollars back to the United States by purchasing US Treasury bills, or to let the "free market" force up their currency relative to the dollar—thereby pricing their exports out of world markets and hence creating domestic unemployment and business insolvency.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
The Coming Economic Cold War
For anyone to believe the United States will soon return to a state of economic stability, I am afraid you have not been reading your herbal tea leaves correctly. Not only is there a new American paradigm emerging, but there is a new world paradigm on the horizon. For many Americans it is unlikely that they will ever return to a state of economic stability. And, for others, they may get closer to where they were before the big collapse, but not close enough.
The powerful economic forces in the world are all fighting for recognition as dominant players, while strategizing to become master players through their political maneuvers in order to position themselves in such a way so their currencies will evolve as the major trading reserve currencies above all others. It has become more visible and apparent that the United States has not been fully included in the current Eurasia summit conferences. As a matter-of-fact, we are being excluded, at this time. It not only has to do with the instability of the United States dollar and economy, but equally as much as it involves U.S. dollar hegemony, it is also about how other world powers are now realizing they can finally subdue its domination, without firing a shot, as well as reducing the sphere of influence by the world’s largest debtor nation—the U.S.
This overwhelming paradigm shift will be jettisoned by Russia and China supplanting the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency with, instead, other sovereign currencies. This dramatic change will be initiated as foreign central banks pull back their purchases of U.S. treasurys, especially those that are considered longer term investments—anything beyond a 10 year maturation.
The days of China and Russia subsidizing U.S. military expansion (approximately half of the U.S. budget) through the purchase of U.S Treasurys is coming to an end. Another way that the U.S redirects it currency back into the budget is by circulating it through the host nation’s central bank via the 737 military bases and installations established around the world. This, too, may be coming to an end. The U.S. may be finding Russia, China, Brazil, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Malaysia removing its pawns, knights and bishops from the world’s chessboard. The nations with budgetary surpluses now have greater control over the one country, which was so willing to destroy its real economy, and replace it with a phony financial-monopoly based economy full of fake securitized debt instruments, which were given fake high AAA ratings, and insured against their failures through Ponzi-style credit default swaps; and, as a result of such foolhardy willingness shown by Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, and now, Obama, the U.S. will more than likely find itself in a continuous decline as it throws more of its economic resources into the burn-barrel of financial institutions.
For President Obama to even think of giving Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke any oversight powers, is to give a pyromaniac oversight control of the burn-barrel. And, to allow his voice to structure new regulatory rules over the financial sector would be like letting a bank’s personnel director hire professional bank robbers as night janitors!
Bernanke is culpable in this economic collapse. He has been deeply embedded in the plot by the top 20 banks to take over the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve’s resources.
We have now learned that 10 financial banks want to pay back $68 billion of the $700 billion allocated TARP funds. Now Kevin Hall of McClatchy News has spun propaganda by stating that “the TARP bailout turns out to have been good business for the U.S” in his article of the same name. He says that out of the $68 billion, the U.S government received $1.8 billion in dividends. “That translates to an annualized rate of return of about 4.64 percent on the $68 billion.”
Out of the $700 billion allocated for TARP, there still remains $134 billion still remaining in the program’s account. Subtract the $68 billion, and there still remains $498 billion still outstanding by the remaining 9 financial banks. $566 billion was actually lent out. Only around 15% is now planning to be paid back.
The question is what kind of impact did this $1.8 billion have on the GDP? Or, on the productivity of the country, for that matter? The answer is zero! Did it improve the plight of the suffering working American? NO! I am sorry Kevin, but I don’t see how the bank bailout was good business for the U.S.
Had the banks been allowed to fail, and all the funds that were handed over to the zombie financial banks, including the measly $566 billion out of the $11 trillion total amount of money made available to the zombie financial banks, the U.S. government might have been able to gather a return by investing nothing, but instead, taking control of the bank’s assets, and once taken over through receivership, then the toxic mortgage debt could have been auctioned off for around 22 cents on the dollar. Bank receivership would have been better business for the U.S. in the long run. And, better for working people. In spite of all the party favors given to the financial banks, credit is still frozen because the banks are hoarding the money for their own protection.
Now, had the government made available the $11 trillion to those companies in the real economy, as loans, to, once again, build up a Green and vibrant manufacturing sector, workers would have been hired, who would be paying income taxes, and stimulating the economy through spending. Foreclosures would have slowed months ago. The peripheral economy that surrounds the manufacturing economy, such as services, would hire workers and the nation’s productivity would grow, as well. And, the businesses would be paying back the government in taxes. Such a plan would have been a real stimulus improving the GDP far better than lending money to the hoarding financial banks that were responsible for the economic collapse in the first place!
Another weak aspect of President Obama’s regulatory plan would allow credit default swaps to go unregulated only if they were considered to be “custom” by the insurer—our government protected financial crime syndicate. And, of course, “custom” swaps would be the majority issued. Credit default swaps continue to amount to $30 trillion, and were a major player in the collapse of our economy because they went unregulated. So, for the most part, President Obama wants to continue walking the path toward the Gates of Hell!
The path President Obama has chosen will very likely embolden the neo-fascist Right wing hate-talk media voices doing what they can to bring about a sea change of civil unrest the likes of which many of us have never seen. He will deliver it to them because his decisions allowed for it to evolve. For a person as smart as he seems, he lacks the ability to see the cause and affect, 3 or 4 moves ahead, of his decisions. Some believe the opposite, that he sees moves forward, but I must differ with that observation.
The foreign countries mentioned above are sick and tired of being forced to buy Treasurys through the cycling of dollars they receive from U.S. corporate business sectors buying up their cheap goods and services, and foreign corporations, as well as having dollars circulated into their banks as a result of U.S. military installations situated in their countries, which is then used to further support these same U.S. military bases and facilities they would like to see closed up and moved out.
Foreign central banks don’t have very much they can buy with dollars except Treasurys and American corporations, only when the U.S government permits it.
This change will likely happen. China and Russia have seriously created a plan during their BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) summit in Katerinburg, Russia. The U.S. was told “No” you are not invited, even as a passive observer.
President Obama’s actions have advanced the Economic Cold War. [Read Dr. Michael Hudson’s enlightening article, “Appointment in Yekaterinburg: The Ending of America’s Financial-Military Empire”, Counterpunch.org, 6-20-09.]
The result of the U.S.’s possible loss of the dollar as the world’s central reserve currency will be hyper-inflation because the Federal Reserve will print much more money. It is likely that there will be more job losses, significant rollbacks with state and local budgets and a shake-up in the way President Obama has been doing business, as well a Republican uprising inside Congress.
In the June 17, 2009 Wall Street Journal, there was an article about how hedge funds are foreseeing inflation with regard to commodity prices in the nation’s future and investors are betting on it happening. Such news materializing would be bad for the average working person. I have my doubts that commodity prices could inflate much more without higher wages being realized. Consumers would just cut back on spending forcing commodity prices to fall. It is a hedge fund gamble.
China, Russia and the other foreign nations realize they cannot kill their consumer export market in the U.S., but will be able to bring it to its knees as they begin to dictate new rules. They will capitulate and continue to buy U.S. Treasurys, but it will be on their terms, as they “negotiate” a reduction in U.S. military expenditures reducing our dominant influence in Eurasia.
Without the U.S government’s ability to borrow from the world’s budget surplus nations, it will not be able to spend and expand its own budget deficits. Government spending reductions will squeeze the economy, and shrink government programs, services, and entitlements, along with contributions to the states. But rest assured, the Bush-Obama bail-out/rescue plan delivered to the financial banking sector occurred as a result of demands they made to be protected from the coming squeezes, such as with luxurious wages, once the economy begins to further fold in on itself. These oligarchs have demanded they be insulated from any of the financial suffering the rest of the population will experience.
Are Major Countries Preparing to Financially Dismantle the United States and its Empire
By Richard Clark
February 16, 2010 at 21:34:15
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Here are the main points of an important answer to that question by economist and former Wall Street honcho, Michael Hudson: The six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is comprised of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrghyzstan and Uzbekistan, with observer status for Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia. It was joined recently by Brazil, for trade discussions among the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China), all of which seek a multi-polar world.
If it's not a move to make US hegemony obsolete, then what's the purpose of this new organization? US diplomats may well wonder. After all, this is exactly what a multi-polar world means: no hegemony by any one country. Another clue as to what's about to happen: in 2005 the SCO asked Washington to set a timeline to withdraw from its military bases in Central Asia.
It seems that the US has inadvertently driven Russia, China and their neighbors to find common ground by developing an alternative to the dollar as a dominant or reserve currency, and hence an end to the US ability to run balance-of-payments deficits ad infinitum.
Mr. Medvedev called for China, Russia and India to "build an increasingly multi-polar world order." What this means in plain English is: We have reached our limit in subsidizing the United States' military encirclement of Eurasia while also allowing the US to appropriate our exports, companies, stocks and real estate -- in exchange for paper money of questionable long-term worth!
"The artificially maintained unipolar system," Mr. Medvedev says, is based on "one big center of consumption, financed by a growing deficit, and thus growing debts, one formerly strong reserve currency, and one dominant system of assessing assets and risks." At the root of the global financial crisis, he concluded, is simply that the United States manufactures too little and spends too much. Especially upsetting to Russia is U.S. military spending, such as the stepped-up US military aid to Georgia, the NATO missile shield in Eastern Europe and, to all the other BRIC and SCO members as well, the huge US military and commercial buildup in the oil-rich Middle East and Central Asia.
The main worry of all these countries is America's ability to print unlimited amounts of dollars. Overspending by US consumers on imports (way in excess of US exports), US buy-outs of foreign companies and real estate, and the many billions of dollars that the Pentagon spends abroad . . all end up in foreign central banks. These central banks then face a hard choice: either recycle these dollars back to the United States by purchasing US Treasury bills, or to let the "free market" force up their currency relative to the dollar thereby pricing their exports out of world markets and hence creating domestic unemployment and business insolvency.
So, when China and other countries recycle their dollar inflows by buying US Treasury bills to "invest" in the United States, this buildup is not really voluntary. It does not reflect faith in the U.S. economy enriching foreign central banks for their savings, or any calculated investment preference, but simply a lack of alternatives. "Free markets," US-style, has maneuvered many countries into a system that forces them to accept dollars without limit. But now they want out.
Central banks now hold $4 trillion of U.S. bonds in their international reserves and these huge loans to the U.S. have financed most of the US Government's domestic budget deficits for over three decades! Consider that about half of US Government discretionary spending is for military operations including the operation of more than 750 foreign military bases as well as increasingly expensive operations in the oil-producing and oil-transporting countries.
The international financial system is organized in a way that finances the Pentagon, along with US buyouts of foreign assets expected to yield much more than the Treasury bonds that foreign central banks hold. Therefore, the main political issue confronting the world's central banks is this: How to avoid adding yet more dollars to their reserves and thereby financing ever more US deficit spending including military spending on their borders.
For starters, the six SCO countries, plus the BRIC countries, intend to trade in their own currencies so as to get the benefit of mutual credit that the United States until now has monopolized for itself. Toward this end, China has struck bilateral deals with Argentina and Brazil to denominate their trade in renminbi rather than the dollar, sterling or euros, and two weeks ago China reached an agreement with Malaysia to denominate trade between the two countries in renminbi.
China, Russia and other countries would no doubt like to get the same kind of free ride that America has been getting. As matters stand, they see the United States as a lawless nation, financially as well as militarily.
How else to characterize a nation that holds out one set of laws for others on war, debt repayment and treatment of prisoners but ignores those very laws in regard to itself? The United States is now the world's largest debtor, yet has avoided the pain of the "structural adjustments" that it so rigorously imposes on other debtor economies. In view of the austerity programs that Washington forces on other countries via the IMF and other Washington vehicles, US interest-rate and tax reductions (in the face of exploding trade and budget deficits) are seen as the height of hypocrisy.
The United States tells debtor economies to sell off their public utilities and natural resources, raise their interest rates and increase taxes while gutting their social safety nets so as to squeeze out money to pay creditors. And at home, Congress blocked China's CNOOK from buying Unocal on grounds of national security, much as it blocked Dubai from buying US ports and other sovereign wealth funds from buying into key infrastructure. Foreigners are invited to emulate the Japanese purchase of white elephant trophies such as RockefellerCenter, on which investors quickly lost a billion dollars and ended up walking away.
Foreigners see the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organization as Washington surrogates in a financial system backed by American military bases and aircraft carriers encircling the globe. But this military domination is a vestige of an American empire no longer able to rule by economic strength. On the economic front there is no foreseeable way in which the United States can work off the $4 trillion it owes foreign governments, their central banks and the sovereign wealth funds set up to dispose of the global dollar glut. America has become a deadbeat and indeed, a militarily aggressive one as it unrealistically seeks to hold onto the great power it once earned by economic means.
At present it is foreign savings, not the savings of Americans, that are financing the US budget deficit, by buying most Treasury bonds. The effect is taxation without representation for "foreign voters" no representation with regard to how the US government uses their forced savings. Meanwhile the US national debt continues into the stratosphere. Example: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were recently taken over by the US, thereby formally adding their $5.2 trillion in obligations onto our national debt.
So where is all this money coming from that the Fed is spending and therefore adding onto the already frightening national debt?
We are of course borrowing it from the central banks of Japan and China, and from other investors the world over. And, as investors around the world become ever more reluctant to buy our treasury notes -- at the interest rates being offered -- our own Federal Reserve is loaning money to the Treasury Dept by buying those notes (i.e. treasury certificates and bonds). In other words the US government is loaning money to the US government! This boggles the mind of any sane person because what this amounts to is that the US has started to simply create a kind of 'magic' money out of thin air -- which means that the value of the dollar must continue to fall internationally as investors around the world become ever more reluctant to buy US Treasury certificates and bonds -- which means that interest rates will have to rise in order to get people to buy them -- which means that interest rates, generally, will rise (on mortgages, auto loans, business loans etc., which in turn means that businesses will be ever more reluctant (at those high interest rates) to borrow money for new equipment, employees and expansion, which then means ever higher unemployment rates and ever lower wages.
"In 2008 and 2009, 50 separate Federal programs offered $23 trillion in loans, grants, or asset guarantees to the financial sector." This statement was buried in paragraph 11 of 12 paragraphs in a joint statement that California Senator Barbara Boxer and Virginia Senator Jim Webb issued demanding taxing TARP monies executives used to compensate themselves. That's more than 30 times more than the official $700 billion that Congress authorized to bail out the big banks and failed Wall Street financial houses. The $700 billion figure tossed out quickly became etched in financial stone. President Bush, President Obama, Congress, Wall Street and the banking industry, and every financial pundit, duly cited the $700 billion payout as the maximum that taxpayers would be stuck with. Now, almost as an afterthought, Webb and Boxer casually toss out the $23 trillion number. What kind of sleight of hand is going on here?
The agencies that seem to have shoved vastly more money to the banks than widely disclosed, were known as early as April, 2009. In testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Tarp's Inspector General listed the agencies and the projected dollar amounts.
Because of all this, foreign nations are starting to see themselves as likely being stuck with largely worthless IOUs under conditions where, if they move to stop the US free lunch, the dollar will plunge and their dollar holdings will fall in value relative to their own domestic currencies and other currencies.
So when Mr. Geithner put on his serious face and told an audience at Peking University in early June that he believed in a "strong dollar" and China's US investments therefore were safe and sound, he was greeted with derisive laughter.
The nations meeting at Yekaterinburg are taking steps to avoid being the unwilling recipients of yet more dollars. Seeing that US global hegemony cannot continue without spending power that they themselves supply, governments are attempting to hasten what Chalmers Johnson called "the sorrows of empire" in his book by that name he's referring of course to the bankruptcy of the US financial-military world order. If China, Russia and their non-aligned allies have their way, the United States will no longer live off the savings of others (in the form of its own recycled dollars) nor have the money for unlimited military expenditures and adventures.
~snip~
US officials wanted to attend the Yekaterinburg meeting as observers. They were told No. it's a word that Americans will hear much more in the future.
China vows to further military ties with Cuba
Chinese and Mexican defense ministers hold talks on military cooperation
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Panama, Venezuela, Brazil...
China Has Basically Purchased Its Own Latin American Country
Jun. 25, 2010, 8:03 AM | 11,209 | comment 38
China now finances a majority of the public energy projects underway in Ecuador. Recent deals include an 85% stake in a hydroelectric dam that will cover a third of the country's energy needs by 2016. Chinese firms will also take charge of most construction.
Advances in China – Latin America Space Cooperation
Brazil ready to retaliate for US move in ‘currency war’
By John Paul Rathbone in London and Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: November 4 2010 18:28 | Last updated: November 4 2010 18:28
Brazil, the country that fired the gun on the so-called “currency wars”, is girding itself for further battle.
Brazilian officials from the president down have slammed the Federal Reserve’s decision to depress US interest rates by buying billions of dollars of government bonds, warning that it could lead to retaliatory measures
BRICS Plan to Challenge U.S. Dollar
By PATRICK SMITH, The Fiscal Times April 20, 2011
New eras do not announce themselves with billboards or welcoming brochures. They arrive by way of many disparate events. Last week we witnessed one: the gathering in southern China of leaders from the world’s most dynamic emerging economies --the nations we now call the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). The summit in Hainan most persuasively is a determination to use the BRICS' global clout to take some of the intellectual initiative away from the advanced industrial nations.
There is a long history behind such ambitions, beginning with the Non–Aligned Movement in the mid–1950s. More recently, after the Asian financial crisis in the late–1990s, the region was alive with ideas intended to make room for an alternative to the neoliberal economic strategy the West was urging: an Asian monetary fund, a regional central bank, bilateral currency swaps, an “Asian Davos.”
Some of these concepts have taken root, notably swap agreements intended to protect local currencies from a sudden rush (or departure) of speculators. There are now half a dozen of these pacts in effect around East Asia.
As a circle of power such as the European Union, the BRICS bloc is a work in progress, to be sure. But their summit was a loud, clanging bell telling the rest of the planet that their increasing sway in global affairs is not to be underestimated.
BRICs’ move to unseat US dollar as trade currency
2012-03-25
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Thandeka Gqubule and Andile Ntingi
South Africa will this week take some initial steps to unseat the US dollar as the preferred worldwide currency for trade and investment in emerging economies.
Thus, the nation is expected to become party to endorsing the Chinese currency, the renminbi, as the currency of trade in emerging markets.
This means getting a renminbi-denominated bank account, in addition to a dollar account, could be an advantage for African businesses that seek to do business in the emerging markets.
The move is set to challenge the supremacy of the US dollar. This, experts say, is the latest salvo in the greatest worldwide currency war since the 1930s.
In the 30s, several nations competitively devalued their currencies to give their domestic economies an advantage over others.
And this led to a worldwide decline in overall trade volumes at the time.
The north will be pitted against the entire south in a historic competitive currency battle – whose terrain has moved to the Indian capital New Dehli – where the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India China and South Africa) nations will assemble next week.
China seeks to find new markets for its currency and to lobby to internationalise it throughout the Brics states.
For China this is not a new game. In 2009, senior Chinese banking officials issued a statement that the international monetary system was flawed owing to an unhealthy dependence on the US dollar and called for a “super-sovereign” international reserve currency.
Experts say Beijing’s first step is to internationalise its currency (by expanding its reach beyond China), liberalise it (to allow its value to be determined by the market instead of actively managing it as they currently do) and then make it a reserve currency for many nations in the developing world.
Africa’s largest bank, Standard Bank, says in a research document: “We expect at least $100 billion (about R768 billion) in Sino-African trade – more than the total bilateral trade between China and Africa in 2010 – to be settled in the renminbi by 2015.”
The bank anticipates that the use of the renminbi will lower transaction costs in Africa, thus lowering the barriers to doing business.
It also says that the Chinese will be more successful in transacting in renminbi in Africa than anywhere else because most currencies are weak and somewhat localised.
Not only will the US dollar be challenged, but also the entire international financial regime – led by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund – which has been dominant since the end of World War II.
South Africa’s place in the emerging international financial regime is set to be enhanced.
Zou Lixing, vice-president of the Institute of Research of the China Development Bank, told the Brics preparatory meeting recently that “although the economic aggregate of South Africa is small relative to the Brics, South Africa provides a gate for the Brics to get access to the huge African market”.
The five-member nations have collectively called for an end to the tacit agreement between the US and Europe that ensures that the head of the World Bank is an American citizen, and the International Monetary Fund head is European.
They have proposed that an emerging market candidate be fielded when the term of the current World Bank head, Robert Zoellick, expires in three months.
Fundacao Vargas, a member of the Brazilian delegation, said Brics could confront “existing governance structures”, and seek to strengthen the blocs’ influence in established institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, while creating alternatives.
The demand for greater political say in international affairs dovetails with China’s expected rise as a financial superpower in the next eight years.
Vargas showed the preparatory meeting projections indicating that China’s economy will have eclipsed that of the US by 2020, hence the promotion of the renminbi as the preferred currency of the south.
The renminbi has traditionally traded at a deliberately lower exchange rate, which gave a huge boost to China’s domestic economic sectors and enabled its booming industrialisation and growth.
The US and other trading partners have long accused China of being a “currency manipulator”.
Last week, Brazil declared its commitment to keep its own currency – the real – low. Its finance minister, Guido Mantega, reiterated his November 2010 declaration that a global currency war has broken out.
He said: “We do not want to lose our manufacturing sector.
We will not sit back and watch while other countries devalue their currencies.”
Brazil and China cried foul last year when, through a slew of initiatives dubbed QE2 – Quantitative Easing Two – the US indirectly devalued its currency by pumping about $600 billion into its economy to protect the economy from sliding back into recession.
South African economists were in two minds about the moves to extend the influence of the renminbi.
Economist and academic Peter Draper told City Press recently that the decision to establish a Brics development bank and to enlarge the renminbi's sphere “is political and related to the current political dynamics within the World Bank” and the established international financial system.
Tom Wheeler of the South African Institute of International Affairs said developments in New Delhi (India) were “giving substance to the previously (and) loosely arranged economic block”.
The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 08:23 -0400
When the US Dollar is ultimately dethroned as the world's reserve currency (and finally gets rid of all those ridiculous three letter post-Keynesian economic "theories") nobody will have seen it coming. Well, nobody except for the following headlines: ""World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says", "India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees."
And while the expansion of the "dollar exclusion zone" was actually quite glaring to anyone who dared to look, one thing was obvious: it was confined to Asia. No more courtesy of the following FT headline: "Brazil and China agree currency swap."
More: "Brazil has provided a vote of confidence in China’s efforts to promote the renminbi as a reserve currency by becoming the biggest economy yet to agree a swap deal with Beijing.
US Economy: Inflation Raging - As are the People
Written by Peter Kent Friday, 22 April 2011 13:50
As gas prices go over the $4 mark and consumers are shocked at the new prices of food and other essential items as inflation continues to rage; tensions and tempers of the people have also begun to rise in the United States as the mood of the country has fallen to Jimmy Carter type levels from the late 1970’s. There seems to be no end in sight for the US economy and especially relief at the pump as the traditional summer driving season is set to commence.
Many families are being forced to make difficult choices about whether or not to cut summer vacations, cut piano lessons or sports for their children and address other quality of life issues as the misery is spreading like wild fire. The Obama Administration has continued to print money to the point where many US economists and leaders fear the dollar will become as worthless as the paper it was printed on. The dollar has fallen to a 2.5-year low which is right around the time that Barrack Obama took office as President.
China's alliance strategy aims to contain U.S.
Beijing to press for wide-ranging ties with NATO members
WASHINGTON – China is considering a change in its historical policy of avoiding alliances and is looking to establish military and strategic ties with other countries in an effort to counter U.S. military influence worldwide, according to a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
Chinese strategists suggested the move in a conference sponsored by China’s National Security Policy Commission, which is led by senior military officers who are virulently anti-American.
Already, recent Chinese strategic decisions have indicated a new policy already is under way.
“History of the world tells us that, whether it’s in political, economic or military arenas, Western nations, without any exception, always resorted to alliances,” said one Chinese security analyst.
“China must change its non-alliance policy,” he said. “We must consider forming alliances. Otherwise, in a future war with the U.S., we will not be able to politically or militarily counter America’s global alliance network just by ourselves.
Flaherty Says Russia, China May Buy Canada Dollars
By Theophilos Argitis and Christopher Fournier
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said China, with the world’s largest currency reserves of $2.3 trillion, may be poised to buy Canadian dollars as it seeks to shield its reserves against the U.S. dollar’s decline.
“It does not surprise me that China and Russia would take greater positions in the Canadian dollar than they have previously,” Flaherty, 59, said during an interview in his office in Ottawa. “I would expect countries looking around the world to invest in market currencies that are reliable.”
Canada Hints Russia, China to Shun U.S. Dollar
Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 12:17 PM
Article Font Size http://moneynews.com/App_Themes/News...mages/plus.jpg http://moneynews.com/App_Themes/News...ages/minus.jpg
By: Dan Weil
Russian and Chinese officials have been warning for months that they plan to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
And Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says his country may be a beneficiary.
“It does not surprise me that China and Russia would take greater positions in the Canadian dollar than they have previously,” Flaherty told Bloomberg.
“I would expect countries looking around the world to invest in market currencies that are reliable.”
The Canadian dollar has jumped 15 percent against its U.S. counterpart this year.
Russia diversifies into Canadian dollars
By Peter Garnham
FT.com
Published: January 20 2010 16:46 | Last updated: January 20 2010 16:46
Russia’s central bank announced on Wednesday that it had started buying Canadian dollars and securities in a bid to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.
Analysts said the move could be a sign of increased diversification of emerging market central bank assets away from the dollar and into investments denominated in other commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian dollar.
Adam Cole at RBC Capital Markets said if taken in isolation, Russia’s announcement that it was buying Canadian dollars was not significant, but if it was part of a broader trend, then it was an important step.
“If it is a barometer for the activity of other central banks, then its is structurally positive for the currencies of countries like Canada and Australia that have a commodity bias in their economies,” he said.
Although not officially confirmed, traders said that other emerging market central banks, including some in Asia which hold large foreign exchange reserves, have also been active in the foreign exchange market in recent weeks buying both Canadian dollars and Australian dollars.
Alexei Ulyukayev, first deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank, said that it would invest in Canadian dollar-denominated deposits and bonds.
“The Canadian financial market is not very deep, so we can invest in deposits in significant volumes, while the bond market is limited,” he said.
Will Canada follow the U.S. into China's seas?
By Brian Stewart, special to CBC News
Posted: May 17, 2012 7:16 PM ET
Last Updated: May 18, 2012 10:03 AM ET
Read 138 comments
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China's defence spending, the second highest after the U.S., is set to rise 11 per cent in 2012 to $106 billion, according to recent reports. (Reuters)
This summer, the largest international naval exercise in the world will see Canada's navy take on the second-largest role and Canadian officers share key commands — a remarkable prominence that Ottawa seems uncharacteristically reluctant to boast about.
~snip~
But in the world of military alliances, actions always speak far louder than words.
China Doubles Korea Bond Holdings as Asia Switches From Dollar
By Frances Yoon - Aug 18, 2010 12:57 AM CT
Play Video
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington policy group, talks about the outlook for China's economy and the mainland's holdings of U.S. Treasuries. China cut its holdings of Treasury notes and bonds by the most ever, raising speculation the plunge in U.S. yields that sent two-year rates to a record low has made government securities too expensive for some investors. Lieberthal talks with Bloomberg's Rishaad Salamat from Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)
China more than doubled South Korean debt holdings this year, spurring the notes’ longest rally in more than three years, as policy makers shifted part of the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars.
China, Japan, S. Korea agree to consider settling trade in their own currencies
05-05-2011 10:23 BJT
Finance ministers from China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to consider settling trade in their own currencies. It was just one outcome from the trilateral ministers forum, on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Hanoi.
A statement from the Finance ministers said China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to study the use of their own currencies in trade settlement. Analysts say if the three countries start to settle trade with their own currencies, that will reduce dependence on the US dollar.
The statement from the ministers also says the three countries are mindful of challenges, like growing inflationary pressures in Asia, rising global commodity prices and increasingly volatile capital flows into the region.
http://p5.img.cctvpic.com/program/bi...62784627_r.jpg Finance ministers from China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to
consider settling trade in their own currencies.
The three Asian giants will continue to implement appropriate macro-economic policies and strengthen policy cooperation to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced economic growth in the three countries.
The three parties also agreed to investigate regional infrastructure financing and disaster risk insurance.
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Japan's young turn to Communist Party as they decide capitalism has let them down
With its gleaming designer stores, the world's second largest economy and an insatiable appetite for luxury labels, Japan has long been regarded as the land of the rising capitalist.
By Danielle Demetriou in Tokyo
Last Updated: 9:19AM BST 18 Oct 2008
But a wave of discontent among its younger workers is fuelling a change in the nation's political landscape: communism is suddenly back in fashion.
What many young Japanese view as an erosion of their economic security and employment rights, combined with years of political stagnation, are propelling droves of them into the arms of the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), the nation's fourth largest political party.
New recruits are signing up at the rate of 1,000 a month, swelling its ranks to more than 415,000. Meanwhile a classic proletarian novel is at the top of the best-seller lists, and communist-themed "manga" comics are enjoying soaring success...
China, Japan launch world's biggest online marketplace
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) June 1, 2010
The combined number of users on the new service is expected to eclipse the 90 million active users at US online marketplace eBay, which last year sold goods valued at 60 billion dollars.
China's largest retail website Taobao and Yahoo Japan launched a joint service Tuesday in a deal expected to create the world's biggest online marketplace by harnessing Asia's surging ranks of e-consumers. The service is expected to dwarf US rival eBay in terms of users and products on offer, attracting 250 million customers and offering 450 million products.
"This marks the birth of the world's largest e-commerce market," Masayoshi Son, chairman of Yahoo! Japan and CEO of mobile phone carrier Softbank, told a packed hall in a Tokyo hotel.
Japan's Disaster Brings Sino-Japanese Relations Closer
March 22, 2011
At times succour in adversity can open up fresh avenues to normalize strained relations between two countries locked in distrust and enmity. This seems to be happening between China and Japan in the wake of disaster that befell Japan recently.
Chinese, Japanese leaders unveil deals on bond sales, currency to tighten finance ties
By Joe McDonald, The Associated Press | December 26, 2011
BEIJING, China - Chinese and Japanese leaders have unveiled initiatives to tighten financial links between East Asia's economic giants and sometime rivals — measures that could expand use of China's tightly controlled currency abroad.
During a visit to Beijing by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, the two governments said in a surprise announcement Sunday they will encourage use of their own currencies in bilateral trade, which now is conducted mostly in U.S. dollars.
They also agreed to support the sale of bonds denominated in China's yuan by Japanese companies in Tokyo and foreign markets and by the state-owned Japan Bank of International Cooperation in mainland China's markets, which are closed to most foreign investors.
The pledges were a striking step for China and Japan, which are the world's second- and third-largest economies and are bound by billions of dollars in trade but whose political relations often are strained over conflicting territorial claims and other disputes.
"To support the growing economic and financial ties between China and Japan, the leaders of China and Japan have agreed to enhance mutual co-operation in financial markets of both countries and encourage financial transactions between the two countries," the governments said in identically worded statements.
Monday, Dec. 26, 2011
Japan to start purchasing Chinese government bonds
Kyodo
BEIJING — Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao agreed Sunday to step up cooperation in international finance, with Japan to begin purchases of Chinese government bonds and both to encourage the use of their own currencies instead of the dollar when settling bilateral trades, officials said.
The two leaders also decided during their talks in Beijing to set up a working group composed of officials from both countries to discuss private-sector requests on deregulation and other issues.
Chinese authorities control capital inflows and allow only designated countries to purchase limited amounts of their government bonds. Japan is now expected to join that process.
Yen-Yuan Trade Plan to Cut Dollar Dependence of China, Japan
December 26, 2011, 10:06 AM EST
By Toru Fujioka
(Adds Chinese foreign ministry comment in 7th paragraph.)
Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan and China will promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said.
Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi that leaves China during the transactions, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday. Encouraging direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs, the Japanese and Chinese governments said.
Japan, China to launch direct yen-yuan trade on June 1
Mon May 28, 2012 8:41pm EDT
* Move aimed at facilitating trade, financial transactions
* Deal is part of agreement at bilateral summit in December
By Tetsushi Kajimoto
TOKYO, May 29 (Reuters) - Japan and China will launch direct yen-yuan trade in the Tokyo and Shanghai markets from June 1 to facilitate trade and financial transactions between Asia's two biggest economies, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Tuesday.
The step follows an agreement between the leaders of the two countries in December to promote direct trading of their currencies without the interim step of using dollars to set exchange rates.
"By conducting transactions without using the third country's currency, it will bring merits of reducing transaction costs and lowering risks involved in settlements at financial institutions," Azumi told reporters after a cabinet meeting.
"That will contribute to improve convenience of the both countries' currencies and reinvigorate the Tokyo market," he said.
China And Japan Currency Swap: Nail In US Dollar’s Coffin
Written by: Pambazuka New
January 27, 2012
By Horace Campbell
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On 25 December 2011, the government of Peoples Republic of China and Japan unveiled plans to promote direct exchange of their currencies. This agreement will allow firms to convert the Chinese and Japanese currencies directly into each other, thus negating the need to buy dollars. This deal between China and Japan followed agreements between China and numerous countries to trade outside the sphere of the US dollar. A few weeks earlier, China also announced a 70 billion Yuan ($11 billion) currency swap agreement with Thailand.
After visiting China, the Prime Minister of Japan Yoshihiko Noda went on to India and signed another currency swap agreement with the government of India. These currency agreements in Asia came in a year when the countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) were seeking to deepen ways to strengthen their firewall to protect their economies from the continued devaluation of the US dollar. In the year of the ‘Eurozone crisis’ when the future of the EURO as a viable currency was fraught with uncertainty, many states were reconsidering holding their reserves in the US dollar.
Moreover, in the face of the neo-liberal orthodoxy of the Bretton Woods institutions (especially the IMF) swap agreements were proliferating in all parts of the globe. The Latin Americans established the Bank of the South and are slowly laying the groundwork for a new currency, the SUCRE. As in Asia, the Bank of the South will be one of the fundamental institutions of the Union of South American Nations that has been launched in Latin America in order to guarantee the independence of the societies of Latin America. Not to be left as the only region holding dollars, the leaders of the oil rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council have been buying gold while announcing as long ago as 2009 the intention to establish a monetary union with a common currency. In Africa there are plans for the strengthening of the financial basis of the African Union but so far there has not been the same kind coordinated regional plans for financial independence. During the period of the debate on the debt crisis in the USA, the Nigerian central bank governor Lamido Sanusi announced that Nigeria plans to invest 5 to 10 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency – the Yuan also known as the renminbi (RMB).
These accelerated Swap agreements – (agreements between two or several countries (bilateral vs. multilateral) on exchanging currencies in times of crisis) – came a decade after the countries of ASEAN established the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI). In the aftermath of the Asian economic crash and the currency attack by speculators of the financial services industry, the CMI had been established to promote financial cooperation among the ASEAN countries with regional collaboration on currency issues high on the agenda. Initially when the CMI was launched, the government of China had been lukewarm to the goals of the CMI but over decade, especially after the 2007-2008 Wall Street crash, the preliminary partnership that was called ASEAN plus three (Viz ASEAN countries plus China, Japan and Korea) matured to the point where the ASEAN Swap Agreements have now been expanded to the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) agreement, and a set of rules with structured mechanisms for financial regionalism to work for the development of Asian bond markets. These three pillars of the new Asian economic cooperation – CMIM, Asian Bond Markets and bilateral swap agreements – mark a new stage in the international political order.
This week we will examine the implications of the Chinese/ Japan currency swap in the context of the internal discussions in China about the consolidation of socialism. In 2011, China overtook Japan as the second largest economy in the world, and every expansion increases internal and external pressures on the socialist goals of the People’s Republic of China. More importantly, it is crucial to recollect the competitive devaluations and currency wars of the last depression so that the decline of the dollar can be managed in a way that avoids the recourse to open confrontation of the last depression. It is worth remembering that one of the goals of the fascists in the last depression was to roll back socialism.
In our contribution this week we will examine the implications of the swap agreement between China and Japan and the pressures on other regions to delink from the dollar. The conclusion will argue that this swap is one more nail in the coffin of the dollar as the international reserve currency.
‘CHINA, JAPAN TO BACK DIRECT TRADE OF CURRENCIES’
This was the headline in the financial press as Bloomberg News and other news sheets of the financial world reported the agreement on settling trade between the two countries in Yen and RMB instead of dollar. With US $340 Billion of transactions in 2010 between the two countries, both being each other’s biggest trading partner, the deal is a clear break away from US financial domination. This Bloomberg Report stated, ‘Japan and China will promote direct trading of the Yen and Yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said.
Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi that leaves China during the transactions, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing yesterday. Encouraging direct Yen- Yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs, the Japanese and Chinese governments said. China is Japan’s biggest trading partner with 26.5 trillion Yen ($340 billion) in two-way transactions last year, from 9.2 trillion Yen a decade earlier.
The pacts between the world’s second- and third-largest economies mirror attempts by fund managers to diversify as the two-year-old European debt crisis keeps global financial markets volatile.
‘Given the huge size of the trade volume between Asia’s two biggest economies, this agreement is much more significant than any other pacts China has signed with other nations.’
Less than two weeks later, in the first week of January 2012, the President of South Korea Lee Myung-bak travelled to China to discuss a ‘bilateral strategic partnership.’ This discussion on bilateral partnership between South Korea and China took place in a context where the Republic of South Korea did not want to be left behind. Ostensibly the visit to China was to discuss the recent passing of Kim Jung IL of North Korea but Chinese media reported that China, Japan and South Korea were hammering out the basic framework for a free trade agreement between the three biggest economies in East Asia.
These agreements will have implications for the dollar as the global reserve currency and there will be increased pressures for the Chinese currency to be internationalized as other societies follow the lead of Japan and seek swap agreements outside of the dollar.
SLOW EROSION OF THE POWER OF THE DOLLAR AND MANAGING THIS NEW MULTIPOLAR CURRENCY ENVIRONMENT
Japan is one of closest allies of the United States. There are thousands of US troops stationed in Japan, but the Japanese, like all peoples of the world, have been losing money as the US dollar was devalued over the past three years. This devaluation has taken the form of what the US authorities called quantitative easing. There has been two such quantitative easings since the 2009 as the United States unloaded more fiat currency on the world. Whatever the name (devaluations or quantitative easing) all countries in the world were thinking of finding ways to escape being hostages to the US dollar and Central Bank governors from Brazil to India and beyond are working to protect their societies from these devaluations. Asian central banks together hold some $3,3 Trillion in reserves, amounting to an impressive 46 percent of the world’s total national reserves. The government of China has vowed to reduce its holding of US dollars and in 2011. The China Daily newspaper reported that, ‘According to data from the US Treasury Department, China’s holdings of US Treasury bonds stood at $1.1326 trillion by the end of November 2011, $1.5 billion down from the previous month. It was the second successive month that the amount had declined, and the lowest reserve level seen since July 2010. China made six monthly cuts of US debt in 2011, the department’s data showed, trimming its holdings by $27.5 billion from the end of 2010. Yet despite the reductions, China remains the top buyer of US Treasury securities.”
What was left unsaid was the plan of the political leadership of China for a deft management of the reductions so that the international political economy is not drastically affected leading to unforeseen circumstances.
Over the past decade numerous officials from the National People’s Congress, the Central Bank and the commercial sectors have been stating that China has to reduce its holdings of US bonds and diversify into other currencies. When, over five years ago, Parliamentary vice-chairman Cheng Siwei, called for the diversification of Chinese reserves away from US bonds, the implicit assumption was that China would diversify and buy European bonds. This was before the full hollowness of the European project became manifest to the world.
PRESSURES TO INTERNATIONALIZE CHINESE CURRENCY
The Chinese economy has registered an average of over 10 per cent growth in the past thirty years. This has been the most successful transformation of an economy in the recorded history of political economy, but the pundits do not like to point to the socialist foundations of China and the sacrifices made by the Chinese people to transform their society. Mao Zedong called the currency of China, the Renminbi, and the people’s currency. Renminbi is the official name of the currency introduced by the Communist People’s Republic of China at the time of its foundation in 1949. The other name for the currency is the Yuan. Hence the Chinese currency is known by a number of names (including the Kuai).
As a low wage economy, the hard work of the Chinese producers has made the society a force to be reckoned with and the currency attractive to other countries seeking a refuge from the dollar. The political leaders in China have been careful about the pace and nature of the internationalization of the currency. The leaders have slowly allowed Hong Kong to become an offshore renminbi financial centre by allowing authorized institutions in Hong Kong to offer renminbi services such as deposit taking, currency exchange, remittance and trading in RMB denominated bonds. Since 2009 when the Chinese government opened this slight door to the internationalization of its currency, other financial centres such as Macau and Singapore have been hoping to get into the offshore RMB business.
These regional pressures for the internationalization of the RMB came up against the hard reality that for the full internationalization of the currency, for the RMB to become a global currency, the government of China would have to establish capital markets and ensure the full convertibility of capital account. The balance of forces within China would then shift in favour of the one per cent who would then privatise state assets at a faster rate. In the present international system, opening such capital markets beyond the tightly controlled stock exchanges would open up the Chinese currency to the kind of full scale attack and speculation that was witnessed in the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Thus far the Chinese state has held the line against the expansion of capital markets in ways that would undermine the stability of the society.
The economy of China is a mixed economy with the state-owned enterprises dominating the economy. Of the ten largest companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, eight are state owned. With the growth and power of the Chinese economy, the Chinese capitalists have expanded with a large number of billionaires. These billionaires do not control political power and the Chinese state continues to subsidise food, education and transportation services. There are many limitations to the nature of the Chinese political system, especially the hothouse of growth and accumulation that is creating a fundamental environmental hazard for the majority of the citizens. The growing inequalities and the massive push for the reversal of socialist gains since 1949 are now compounded by an alliance between capitalists in Singapore and the US who are calling for speeding the internationalisation of the RMB.
It is in this context where the December 25 agreement to allow Japan to ‘apply to buy Chinese bonds next year’ becomes significant. It is again worth quoting the press reports of the December 25 agreement. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation, ‘The two leaders also agreed to allow the Japan Bank for International Cooperation to issue Yuan-denominated bonds in China, the first time a foreign government body has been allowed to do so. At the same time Japan said it was also looking to buy Chinese government bonds, a move that analysts believe may prove to be mutually beneficial to both nations. ‘By adopting Chinese bonds as a part of official foreign exchange reserves, Japan is labelling Chinese bonds as an investable asset,’ according to Takuji Okubo of Societe Generale Tokyo.
‘This should encourage Japanese private investment into Chinese bonds, as well as into other Asian emerging currencies. Such a development in turn should help develop offshore currency trading in Japan.’
This new collaboration between China and Japan has been underlined by the Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba who on Tuesday said that ‘Japan will seek to take a less inward-looking stance when it comes to diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.’ In the words of the China daily newspaper the Foreign Minister said that, ‘Japan will look to enhance diplomatic ties with China based on mutually beneficial goals. With China, this year marks the 40th anniversary of normalizing diplomatic ties, we will aim to deepen the mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests,’ Gemba said in his first foreign policy speech in parliament.
He went on to say that Japan plans to proactively make ‘concrete efforts’ to strengthen its ties with China and establish more ‘open and multilayered networks’ in the best interests of both countries.
Ever alert to these shifts in the global currency and financial markets, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, travelled to Hong Kong in January and offered London as the western base for the coming internationalization of the RMB. Osborne was vociferously making a plea to make London the leading centre for trading the Chinese currency. This conservative Chancellor was exposing the opportunism of the British and demonstrating the short memory of the British hoping that the Chinese have forgotten the Opium Wars.
UNITED STATES SENATE CURRENCY BILL
While the British were declaring their willingness to embrace the RMB, the US Senate has gone about increasing the war of words against China. In the failure to compete in the so-called ‘marketplace,’ sections of the US political leadership have for years been complaining that China should allow open markets for its currency and for its currency to appreciate more rapidly. There are two sections of the US political establishment pushing against the Chinese currency. The first are those allied to Wall Street and the currency speculators who want to be able to trade in the Chinese currency and to do to China what was done to Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and other Asian economies in 1997. The second pressure is coming from those sections of capital who complain that China is flooding US markets.
While these two sections do not agree they support the information war against China, this information war carries the refrain that the renminbi is undervalued by 25-30 percent against the dollar, which means Chinese exports to the US become 25-30 percent cheaper, while US goods exported to China are more expensive.
Even though China has allowed its currency to appreciate a little in the last two years, the two sections of capital in the US hostile to China have said that this is not enough. In October 2011 the US Senate passed S.1619, the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Act of 2011, and a bill to address China’s ongoing currency manipulation, by a vote of 63-35.
One year earlier one commentator for Time Magazine had noted correctly that the real challenge for the United States was to change its consumption patterns.
‘We’ve seen this movie before. From July 2005 to July 2008, under pressure from the US government, Beijing allowed its currency to rise against the dollar by 21 percent. Despite that hefty increase, China’s exports to the US continued to grow mightily. Of course, once the recession hit, China’s exports slowed, but not as much as those of countries that had not let their currencies rise. So even with relatively pricier goods, China did better than other exporting nations.
Look elsewhere in the past and you come to the same conclusion. In 1985 the US browbeat Japan at the Plaza Accord meetings into letting the yen rise. But the subsequent 50 percent increase did little to make American goods more competitive. Yale University’s Stephen Roach points out that since 2002, the US dollar has fallen in value by 23 percent against all our trading partners, and yet American exports are not booming. The US imports more than it exports from 90 countries around the world. Is this because of currency manipulation by those countries, or is it more likely a result of fundamental choices we have made as a country to favor consumption over investment and manufacturing?’
TRANSITIONS: END OF DOLLAR HEGEMONY AND THE NEW INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
This commentary on the need for the US to transform its economy and live within its means fell short of outlining a more fundamental problem, that of the military management of the international system and the outmoded imperial impulses that stem from the kind of militarism that now reflect US society. While the Japanese and the Chinese were deepening economic relations, the US political leaders were intensifying its bellicose rhetoric about Chinese military buildup in the South China Sea and pushing forward the idea of a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement. Japan was being wooed to become a key anchor of the US dominated TPP.
The China/Japan currency swap was a bold move on the part of these two economic giants in Asia. There are historic difference between the Chinese and Japanese, especially the experiences of the 1930’s Japanese occupation of China and the Rape of Nanking. Notwithstanding these historic differences the US debt of over US $ 14 trillion along with the inability of the US political leaders to effectively tackle the growing debt has awoken many that the US dollar as the international reserve currency is on its last legs.
In May 2009, Nouriel Roubini in a contribution to the New York Times on the Almighty Renmimbi summed up the decline of the dollar in this way,
‘This decline of the dollar might take more than a decade, but it could happen even sooner if the US did not get its financial house in order. If China and other countries were to diversify their reserve holdings away from the dollar — and they eventually will — the United States would suffer. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.’
Nouriel Roubini was writing this warning to alert the US rulers to shift gears because of the rise of China. He called for a strategy of investments to recover the US economy declaring, ‘Now that the dollar’s position is no longer so secure, we need to shift our priorities. This will entail investing in our crumbling infrastructure, alternative and renewable resources and productive human capital — rather than in unnecessary housing and toxic financial innovation. This will be the only way to slow down the decline of the dollar, and sustain our influence in global affairs.’
China and Japan have taken a decisive step to diversify their reserve holdings away from the dollar. What is more fundamental is the new rush by other states to join in this new regional currency arrangement. Republic of South Korea is knocking to become central to this swap arrangement while other members of ASEAN are watching these developments carefully.
The Eurozone crisis has narrowed the ability of the US to respond negatively to the China/Japan currency swap. Importantly, the capitalist crisis in Europe has stiffened the spine of those elements of the Chinese society who proclaim that the principal task of China is to bail out its own people and transform the economy to benefit the 1.3 billion citizens.
These left forces in China are calling for the consolidation of socialism and for vigilance to halt the power of those who are calling for a speedy internationalization of the RMB. These social elements understand the realities behind the call for opening capital markets in China.
It is the left and the progressive forces in China who agree with Mao that the RMB is the people’s currency and that the most important currency is the Chinese people. It is not usual for this writer to quote from Time magazine, but in the arguments of Fareed Zakaria on the question of overvalued currency, this author would concur, ‘The Real Challenge from China: Its People, Not Its Currency.’
‘China is beginning a move up the value chain into industries and jobs that were until recently considered the prerogative of the Western world. This is the real China challenge. It is not being produced by Beijing’s currency manipulation or hidden subsidies but by strategic investment and hard work. The best and most effective response to it is not threats and tariffs but deep, structural reforms and major new investments to make the U.S. economy dynamic and its workers competitive.’
And Zakaria might have added that the US cannot be competitive as long as it imprisons the best of the young people of colour in the prison industrial complex.
The lessons learnt from the last capitalist depression are that competitive devaluations, trade wars, currency disputes and new alliances sow the seeds of hostilities and provide the climate for incidents.
Incidents then spin out of control beyond diplomacy. The contagion from the capitalist crisis will spread and the forces of socialist transformation will have to be even more alert and vigilant to balance the formation of a regional currency block while supporting the creation of the multipolar world to end the era of dollar and pound/sterling hegemony. Those regions of the world that have not awoken to the slow demise of the dollar need to pay closer attention. Planned diversification away from the dollar is preferable to rushed monetary unions. The African peoples have a lot of lessons to learn from both the capitalist crisis in Europe and the new financial arrangements between China and Japan.
China signs $31bn currency exchange deal with Australia
Beijing has given indications that it is willing to loosen its grip slightly on the yuan
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China and Australia have signed a currency swap agreement in a bid to promote bilateral trade and investment.
It will allow for the exchange of local currencies between their central banks, worth up to 30bn Australian dollars ($31bn; £20bn) over three years.
The deal is expected to reduce cost for businesses, as they will be able to settle trade terms in local currency.
It is the latest in a series of similar deals signed by Beijing as it seeks a more global role for the yuan.
"The main purposes of the swap agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms," the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement.
Chinese PLA Official to Australia: Choose between us or America
Philip Wen, Beijing
May 16, 2012
AUSTRALIA cannot juggle its relationships with the United States and China indefinitely and must choose a ''godfather'' to protect it, according to a prominent Chinese defence strategist.
The warning by Song Xiaojun, a former senior officer of the People's Liberation Army, comes after Foreign Minister Bob Carr was told by his Chinese counterpart that Australia's close military alliance with the US was a throwback to the Cold War era.
Senator Carr yesterday met the man expected to become China's next premier, Li Keqiang, in Beijing. Discussions centred on more comfortable matters including furthering trade and investment and the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations.
But Australia's strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region remains contentious. "Australia has to find a godfather sooner or later," Mr Song told The Age.
"Australia always has to depend on somebody else, whether it is to be the 'son' of the US or 'son' of China," he said. "[It] depends on who is more powerful, and based on the strategic environment."