The Obama administration is letting the world know that New Mexico Governor and onetime–presidential hopeful Bill Richardson isn’t traveling to North Korea next week on U.S. government business. State Department spokesman PJ Crowley said Richardson would be making a “private visit” and will not be “carrying any particular message from the United States Government.” But Richardson might pop his head into the State Department after he gets back. Crowley said that former-president Jimmy Carter, after his personal visit to the North, paid Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a visit. The spokesman “would expect Governor Richardson to report back after he’s done.”
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, still in Asia, said that strong “steps must be taken” to make sure Pyongyang stops behaving badly. But Washington must tread very carefully. As Mullen put it, “any actions that are taken . . . have to be done very carefully to make sure that we don’t escalate.” Many of Mullen’s recent comments on North Korea have been aimed at China. And today, North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Il met with a diplomat from Beijing. The Chinese didn’t give much hint of what went during the meeting, but both sides said that they worked on their bilateral relationship.
And in Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, surveying progress in the war in the lead-up to the release of a strategy review, said that the situation there “exceeded [his] expectations.” Not only that, but he’s going back to Washington “convinced that our strategy is working.” Gates appeared at a press conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
December 10th, 2010, 16:13
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
US, South Korea eye shift in rules of engagement on North Korea
Seoul's top general and US Adm. Mike Mullen did not formally announce a shift in rules of engagement. But South Korean analysts believe they are shaping the first possible strategy shift since the Korean War.
Gen. Han Min-koo, chairman of South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his US counterpart Adm. Mike Mullen pose for photographers before their talks at a headquarters of South Korean Defense Ministry in Seoul on Wednesday, Dec. 8.
Lee Jae-Wo/AP
By Donald Kirk, Correspondent / December 8, 2010
Seoul, South Korea
The top US and South Korean military officers edged Wednesday toward a significant shift in the rules of engagement for countering North Korean attacks. Skip to next paragraphRelated Stories
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US armed forces, said after meeting his South Korean counterpart that South Korea as a “sovereign nation” had “every right to protect its people in order to effectively carry out its responsibility.”
That remark was seen here to mean that the US would not stand in the way of South Korean commanders ordering fighter jets to bomb and strafe North Korean bases in case of an attack by North Korea on a target in the South.
Admiral Mullen stood beside General Han Min-koo, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the South Korean armed forces, as each of them parried questions about the need to remove constraints on South Korean forces.
The issue has assumed prime importance here in the aftermath of North Korea’s bombardment on Nov. 22 of an island in the Yellow Sea in which two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed. South Korea responded to the barrage by firing cannon ineffectively at North Korean targets while South Korean F15 fighters were scrambled to the area but ordered not to open fire.
No formal change announced, but understanding reached
Neither General Han nor Mullen went into detail on changes in the rules of engagement, but Han said South Korea and the US had “agreed to strongly respond to North Korea’s additional provocations.” They would, he said, be “refining” plans “for the alliance to resolutely respond to further North Korean aggression.”
South Korean analysts believe the two came to a definite understanding.
“They have more freedom in the choice of weapons,” says Kim Tae-woo, a vice president of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “It is an historical change” – the first, he says, “since the Korean War.”
Mr. Kim a member of South Korea’s presidential commission for defense reform, says “the green light was given even though Mullen did not say so openly.”
US support for any shift in rules of engagement is essential in view of the US-Korean military alliance, dating from the Korean War, and overall US command responsibility for all forces in the South in time of war. The US would not assume command of South Korean forces in response to a relatively minor attack, such as that on Yeonpyeong island, but US agreement is wanted for any essential policy shifts. Buildup of tensions
Mullen arrived here just as a newly appointed defense minister, Kim Kwan-jin, who had also served previously as chairman of South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff, was settling into his post with a mandate to vastly improve South Korea’s defenses. South Korea’s President Lee Myung-bak appointed him amid widespread criticism of the poor state of the South’s defenses.
Mr. Kim in the past few days has been saying that South Korean planes would attack North Korean targets in the event of an attack similar to that on Yeonpyeong Island. He’s under orders from Mr. Lee to build up fortress-like defenses on the Yellow Sea islands and also south of the 155-mile-long demilitarized zone that has divided the Korean peninsula since the end off the Korean War in 1953.
Intrinsic in the buildup is a commitment by the US for more exercises such as those last week in which the aircraft carrier George Washington led a US strike force into the Yellow Sea for war games with South Korean forces. South Korean forces engaged in still more exercises this week off the east, west and southern coasts despite North Korean threats of “all-out war.”
Mullen emphasized, meanwhile, the need for China to pressure North Korea not to carry out more attacks. He spoke after a trilateral meeting in Washington among Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the foreign minister of Japan and South Korea. At the same time, James Steinberg, deputy secretary of state, planned to go to China next week bearing the same plea.
The Chinese have “unique influence,” said Mullen, referring to China’s position as North Korea’s only real ally and the source of most of its food and fuel. “Therefore they bear unique responsibility.”
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
TODAY'S VIEWS: A DIGEST OF GLOBAL OPINION FROM TOP PUBLICATIONS
China's Links to North Korea's Nukes
Hanna Ingber Win | December 7, 2010
FT: A European meltdown could trigger a global crisis. GlobalPost: The US is likely to dramatically shift its Afghan war strategy. Globe and Mail: WikiLeaks will cause even greater secrecy.
China should be punished for supporting North Korea’s nuclear program
Columnist Bret Stephens writes in the Wall Street Journal that there is good reason to believe that China has actively supported North Korea’s efforts to build its nuclear program. The North would not have been able to come as far as it has without China’s assistance.
QUOTE: This is not the behavior of a status quo power, but of a revolutionary one supporting activities and regimes that represent the most acute threat to global security. If it continues unchecked, it is China that should be sanctioned—and the North's facilities destroyed.
European meltdown could trigger global crisis
Columnist Gideon Rachman writes in the Financial Times that an “economic meltdown” in Europe would rattle the entire world. Given that the European Union as a whole is the world’s largest economy, if it fell apart, it could trigger phase two of the global financial crisis.
QUOTE: The historically-minded point out that the Great Depression began in the US with the crash of 1929 – but was gravely worsened by the outbreak of a banking crisis in Europe two years later.
The global community needs the US-Russia arms control treaty
Bruce Blair, the co-coordinator of the nonproliferation group Global Zero, and Damon Bosetti and Brian Weeden, former launch-duty officers at a Minuteman missile base in Montana, write in the New York Times that the global community needs the New Start arms-control treaty. It could lead to even more cuts in nuclear arsenals in the United States, Russia and eventually around the world.
QUOTE: The initial goal of these multilateral talks should be the phased reduction of their arsenals. The longer-term goal is elimination of all nuclear weapons.
The US is likely to dramatically shift its Afghan war strategy
Executive Editor and Vice President C.M. Sennott writes in GlobalPost that the United States might be drastically changing its policy in Afghanistan soon and shifting away from one of winning hearts and minds and towards intense urban warfare. He states that the Soviets tried this as well – and failed.
QUOTE: The struggle between the effectiveness of armor and the threat it poses to civilian populations is as old as mechanized war, but it is a moral dilemma that the United States is likely to face head on in the coming months.
The global community neglects North Korea’s people
Columnist Jonah Goldberg writes in the Los Angeles Times that the global community vigorously debates how to force North Korea to end its nuclear program, but it virtually ignores the plight of the North Korean people themselves.
QUOTE: Stopping Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is rightly a priority because of the threat it poses to the US and our allies. But it should also be a priority because, if we don't, the regime may stagger on for another half-century of barbarous cruelty.
If Europe falls apart, it will no longer be a positive global influence
Moisés Naím, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes in the International Herald Tribune that if the eurozone breaks up, it will have terrible effects on not only Europe but also the entire world. Europe’s decline would cause it to stop having a positive political and economic impact on other nations.
QUOTE: I do not know if the ambitious project of European integration will survive the enormous obstacles it currently faces. But I do know that if it fails, the entire world will pay the consequences.
WikiLeaks will cause even greater secrecy
Paul Heinbecker, a former Canadian ambassador to the United Nations, writes in Toronto’s Globe and Mail that WikiLeaks has forever changed diplomacy. He argues that the leaks will ironically lead to greater secrecy as nations try to prevent this from happening again.
QUOTE: The irony of the WikiLeaks attempt to force openness is that it is very likely to increase secrecy and decrease accountability. The public’s right to know, and historians’ ability to explain, will both be casualties.
One Washington official has the courage to try to fix the economy
Columnist Eugene Robinson writes in the Washington Post that US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is the only US official with the courage to try to fix the nation’s economy and the decency to be honest about the country’s economic state.
QUOTE: After last month's election, Republicans are in a mood to strut and Democrats in a mood to fret. But one official in Washington, at least, is focused on using all the powers of his office to try to make the economy grow and put Americans back to work.
Obama loses tax cut negotiation
Author John Avlon writes in the Daily Beast that President Obama’s decision to extend the Bush tax cuts has disappointed the left and delighted the right. Avlon argues that it showed both sides that Obama’s preference for resolving conflicts with reasoning between all parties fails during this sort of negotiation.
QUOTE: His opponents are playing remorseless politics, and this leaves Obama at a tactical disadvantage. He is by nature a bridge-builder and the margins keep getting moved as he strains to make a deal.
Don’t blame poverty on the ‘resource curse’
Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and a Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation, writes in Foreign Policy that the widely held belief in a so-called resource curse – the idea that nations with great natural wealth become plagued by poverty – may actually be false. The world’s resource wealthiest nations per capita actually have higher than average per capita income, and recent economists have found that countries with higher resource wealth have grown faster than those with less.
QUOTE: It is true that many countries that rely heavily on natural resource exports are poor and unstable. That's because poor and unstable countries are rarely globally competitive in banking or computer design.
December 10th, 2010, 16:23
Toad
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Donaldson
.... New South Korean Defence Minister Kim Kwan-Jin, who took office after the attack, warned that South Korea would respond with war to any further aggression. "If North Korea launches another military attack on our territory and people, we must swiftly and strongly respond with force and punish them thoroughly until they surrender,"he said. "We do not want war, but we must never be afraid of it." ....
Well, there's no other way I can read that without thinking a line in the DMZ has been finally drawn. The next provocation will result in full war ending only when the North collapses.
December 10th, 2010, 16:24
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Report: N.Korea deploys torpedo-carrying midget subs
(AFP) – 3 days ago
SEOUL — North Korea has developed a new type of midget submarine fitted with torpedo launch tubes, allowing it to attack South Korea warships more easily, a report said Tuesday.
Satellite images of a naval base in the North's southwestern city of Nampo, published by JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, show what appears to be a 17-metre-long (56-feet) submarine with a tube-like structure attached to its top.
"We have concluded that it is a torpedo launch tube," the paper quoted an unidentified Seoul intelligence source as saying.
The paper said the new Daedong-B midget submarine moves faster than larger submarines and is harder for military radar to detect.
The South accused the North of sending a 29-metre Yono-class submarine to torpedo the Cheonan warship in March which sank with the loss of 46 lives. The North denies the charge.
The newspaper said the North has long used midget submarines to infiltrate spies into the South. It said Seoul military officials now suspect Pyongyang has developed a more powerful midget sub to carry torpedoes and other weapons.
South Korea's defence ministry and intelligence agency declined to comment.
Cross-border tensions have been high since the Cheonan incident, and rose further after the North's deadly artillery attack on a South Korean border island on November 23.
December 10th, 2010, 16:27
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toad
Well, there's no other way I can read that without thinking a line in the DMZ has been finally drawn. The next provocation will result in full war ending only when the North collapses.
Totally agree.
The North is waiting for something to happen so they can launch an attack again.
They are waiting for the South or US to do something so they can call it "provocation" to give them the weight of world opinion (or at least to pretend it does) before they do something.
Also, there is a distinct possibility they are falling back and regrouping because they are honestly afraid to do anything more than piss and moan.
December 10th, 2010, 16:29
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Japan to raise armed forces mobility to boost defense
TOKYO | Wed Dec 8, 2010 3:21am EST
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Vice Defense Minister Jun Azumi said Japan's armed forces need to improve their mobility to boost the country's defense capability in the southwest, where it shares a maritime border with China.
Azumi also said Japan aims to strengthen its security cooperation with South Korea, Australia and India, on top of its ties with closest ally the United States, as North Korea's artillery shelling of the South last month raised regional tensions.
"In a sense, the Cold War era structure has remained unchanged in the Far East. Only, China's military expansion has added to instability," Jun Azumi told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.
"Our attention was on the north during the Cold War. But we have to shift our focus to the defense of southwest ... The most important step to strengthen our defense over the next 10 years is to secure the mobility (of our troops)."
Japan's defense capability has traditionally been allocated heavily in the north to respond to potential threats from the former Soviet Union.
Azumi said the timing is right for Japan and South Korea to deepen their security ties.
"Given our history, there might have been reluctance on the South Korean side (for security cooperation with Japan). But due to the North Korean situation, the environment for such talks is developing," Azumi said.
"We are set to have various talks with high-ranking people within the South Korean government from now on."
South Korean military officers are participating in a joint military exercise between Japan and the United States this week for the first time as observers.
Azumi also said Japan's weapons export ban needs to be revised to fit the changing security environment.
"The weapons export ban is out of sync with the current situation and this needs to be pointed out, and how we can improve it needs to be considered," Azumi said.
Japan in 1967 drew up "three principles" on arms exports, banning sales to countries with communist governments or that are involved in international conflicts or subject to United Nations sanctions.
But the rules eventually became almost a blanket ban on arms exports and on the development and production of weapons with countries other than the United States.
The ban prohibits Japan's defense industry from joining multinational projects such as the Lockheed Martin-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, and makes it difficult for Japanese defense contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to drive down costs and keep up with cutting-edge arms technologies.
"The way the problem needs to be addressed will be mapped out in the National Defense Program Guideline (NDPG)," Azumi said.
Japan plans to update its national defense policy outline by the end of the year.
The Nikkei business daily said on Wednesday the export ban will not be eased in the forthcoming NDPG.
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Communist holdouts Laos and North Korea agree on closer ties
Dec 7, 2010, 6:16 GMT
Vientiane, Laos - The communist governments of Laos and North Korea have signed a cooperation agreement to enhance relations between their ruling parties, an official press report said Tuesday.
North Korea concluded the agreement with Laos Monday, the state-run Vientiane Times newspaper reported at a time when North Korea has seen its diplomatic isolation rise after an artillery attack last month of a South Korean island and the March sinking of a South Korean warship
The agreement was made as a high-level delegation from North Korea led by Kim Yong Il, secretary of the Party Central Committee and head of the External Relations Committee of the ruling Korean Workers Party, was visiting Vientiane.
Signing the agreement on behalf of Laos was Thongloun Sisoulith, a Politburo member and head of foreign relations of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party.
The signing followed bilateral talks in which the two countries agreed to increase exchange visits and enhance 'growing friendly relations and traditional cooperation between the two countries.'
The North Korean
delegation also paid a courtesy call on Secretary General of the Lao People's Revolutionary Party Choummaly Sayasone Monday.
Laos and North Korea established diplomatic ties in 1974, but bilateral relations and exchanges of visits were stepped up in the 1990s after the fall of the Soviet Union and the dwindling number of communist governments.
December 10th, 2010, 16:35
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
The Chosun Ilbo - 16 hours ago
Americans consider North Korea the second largest security threat to the US after ...North Korea came second, earning a "very high" threat rating from 42 ...
December 10th, 2010, 16:41
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
South Korea Formally Declares End to Sunshine Policy
Steve Herman | Seoul 18 November 2010
[IMG]http://media.voanews.com/images/480*329/ap_south_korea_north_reunions_18nov10_480.jpg[/IMG] Photo: AP
South Korea Lee Pung-no, center, weeps as he hugs with his North Korean daughters during the Separated Family Reunion Meeting at Diamond Mountain in North Korea, 03 Nov 2010
The South Korean Unification Ministry's annual report calls the Sunshine Policy of peaceful engagement with North Korea a failure.
The ministry's white paper, issued Thursday, contends a decade of cooperation, cross-border exchanges and billions of dollars in aid did not change Pyongyang's behavior or improve the lives of North Korean citizens.
Lee Jong-joo, a ministry spokeswoman, says South Korea's goal is to see North Korea prosper, but Seoul must respond appropriately to any provocations from Pyongyang.
Compared with the previous two administrations here, North-South relations have significantly cooled under President Lee Myung-bak.
Mr. Lee, since taking office in 2008, has insisted North Korea give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons if it wants badly needed food and other aid from Seoul.
His conservative government points to North Korea's continued nuclear programs and this year's sinking of a South Korean warship as examples of deception by Pyongyang.
The white paper's publication was delayed six months to include information on the sinking of the Cheonan navy ship in March.
Pyongyang denies responsibility for the sinking. An international investigation concluded the ship was hit by a North Korean torpedo.
Park Young-Ho is a senior research fellow at the government-funded Korea Institute for National Unification. He says Mr. Lee's administration is trying to establish a relationship based on rules with the North.
Park says this is a shift, in response to four decades of Pyongyang's questionable attitude towards inter-Korean engagement.
The ministry's report complains about the lack of progress on other critical issues, including reuniting separated families and the release or information about South Korean prisoners of war, as well as citizens abducted by the North's agents.
Referring to huge payments Seoul secretly made to Pyongyang to bring about a 2000 summit of the countries' leaders, the Unification Ministry says any future engagement must be done transparently.
The policy document does stress the importance of dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang.
On Thursday, Pyongyang sent a message to Seoul saying it is prepared to discuss the status of a jointly run resort in the North when their Red Cross societies hold talks next week.
South Korea's government has asked Pyongyang to release assets it seized in Seoul's portion of the Mount Kumgang resort.
Tours to the resort were a rare source of hard currency for the impoverished North. Seoul suspended the program in 2008 when a North Korean guard shot and killed a South Korean tourist near the resort.
December 10th, 2010, 16:46
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/da...a_bb-61_pr.jpg
Just when you thought it was safe to take a dip in the West Sea, a report from North Korean dissidents claims that Pyongyang has already developed sea-borne nuclear weapons.
If you read Korean, you can find their report here, but if not, Bill Gertz at the Washington Times has the gist. Citing a Pyongyang government official, the defectors claim that in March 2009, North Korean military units called “Thunder” and “Lightning” began technical nuclear torpedo and mine research to blunt the superiority of U.S. and South Korean naval weaponry.
Still, over at the U.S. Naval Institute’s blog, Raymond Pritchett observes that a recent WikiLeaked cable cited a Chinese diplomat’s claim that Pyongyang kept “critical information about secret underwater nuclear facilities located on North Korea’s coast” hidden from Kim’s big Chinese patron. (Although that cable is from 2008, from 2008, seemingly before the supposed launch of the North’s nuke torpedo and mine program.)
These weapons are familiar to the U.S. Starting in the 1960s, its subs carried the Mark 45 and Mark 48 nuclear torpedoes, 19-foot-long weapons designed to take out Soviet nuclear subs with 11-kiloton yields. Moscow’s family of countermeasures, known as the Type 53-68 HWT, had 20-kiloton yields. Gertz notes that the Chinese navy has been intrigued by nuclear torpedoes lately, leading him to collect this awesome quote from defense wonk Richard Fisher: “China’s strategy is simply to have us negotiate with North Korea and Iran until its nuclear weapons start to kill us.”
OK then. It’s possible we may get some clarity on the alleged nuclear torpedo and mine programs. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a frequent diplomatic backchannel to the North Koreans, is headed to Pyongyang at “the invitation of key people in the nuclear crowd over there,” according to the Washington Post Presumably they’ll want to talk about the North’s recent declaration of a new uranium-enrichment facility, but it’s the perfect opportunity to make additional nuclear boasts.
December 10th, 2010, 16:47
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Sometimes, I think it is ok to be alarmed, and alarmist.
December 10th, 2010, 16:58
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
By Victor D. Cha
Friday, December 10, 2010; 11:00 AM
For years, experienced diplomats have referred to North Korea as the land of lousy options. That description has never been more apt than over the past month, as Pyongyang has made a series of deliberate escalations, first unveiling a vast new nuclear fuel plant, then shelling an island in South Korea, killing two civilians and a pair of South Korean marines. With tensions between North and South Korea running higher and higher, and America's options only getting lousier, it is worth taking a moment to look closely at what's happening on the Korean Peninsula ¿ and what isn't.
This Story
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Five myths about North Korea
*
Editorial: China's shame
1. The North Koreans are crazy.
They may be weird, but they are not crazy. Yes, the unpredictable, nuke-toting Kim Jong Il puppet in the 2004 movie "Team America" has come to define the real Kim Jong Il in many people's minds. But in truth, the country's diplomats are savvy and well-educated about the United States, and have an epicurean taste for California's red wines. In my negotiations with them as an official in President George W. Bush's administration, I always found them to be rational.
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Of course, it is possible to be both rational and belligerent. In North Korea's case, belligerence is part of a calculated effort to win concessions of food, fuel and political recognition - an effort that has repeatedly paid off. A study I recently directed at the Center for Strategic and International Studies examined negotiations dating back to March 1984 and found that every North Korean provocation has been followed, sooner or later, by talks, many of which led to goodies for Pyongyang.
North Korea is behaving perfectly rationally, then - much in the manner of a losing gambler who increasingly takes on more risk. If you have "winnings" to protect (as do most countries), then you value the peaceful status quo. You don't fire off missiles every time you want attention, because you have too much to lose if the situation gets out of control. But if you have little to lose (like North Korea), you are more willing to double down (by taking risky actions such as lobbing missiles) to achieve some winnings. North Korean brinksmanship may be dangerous and escalatory, but from their perspective, it makes sense.
2. Kim Jong Eun is too young and inexperienced to successfully replace his father.
It's true that Kim Jong Eun, Kim Jong Il's son and heir apparent, is only in his mid-20s (we believe he is somewhere between 25 and 27, though we don't know for sure). But if the planned succession fails, it won't be because of his youth. Kim Il Sung, the first leader of North Korea, came to power in 1948, when he was only 36 years old. His son Kim Jong Il was anointed leader-in-waiting in 1980, when he was in his late 30s. In the North Korean system, where the Kim family is basically royalty, the idea is to pick leaders while they're still young, in hopes that they will rule for 40 to 50 years. Moreover, Kim Jong Eun appears to be surrounded by regents who will help ease him into place, including Kim Jong Il's sister, brother-in-law and a handful of loyal generals.
If the planned succession fails, it will be because the new regime is incapable of making the reforms it needs to survive. Despite Kim Jong Eun's Swiss education, there are indications that he is not progressive but rather a hard-liner, one who is associated with a revival of "juche," the ideology of self-reliance that dominated the country in the 1950s and 1960s, when the North was doing well relative to the South. Those who subscribe to this ideology blame the past 15 years of poor performance on a few piecemeal efforts at economic liberalization in the mid-1990s, reforms they regard as misguided and deviant.
3. Negotiations can get us out of this crisis.
Negotiations can contain the crisis, but only temporarily. Some pundits say that all North Korea wants is a return to the six-party talks (a suspended series of negotiations among China, the United States, North and South Korea, Japan and Russia over Pyongyang's nuclear program) or to bilateral negotiations with Washington over food, fuel and security. But having sat down with the North Koreans to negotiate exactly these things during the six-party talks, the prospect gives me deja vu. Such enticements have been part of every U.S. negotiating package dating back to the George H.W. Bush administration and have netted the regime $30 billion worth of assistance, most of it in the form of food and energy.
The dilemma for the Obama administration is that it knows Pyongyang wants to use negotiations to again extort assistance for its starving economy, but it also knows that Kim is not willing to give up his country's nuclear program verifiably and irreversibly. This is why U.S. diplomats often use the phrase "hold your nose and negotiate with them" in talking about the North Koreans - they know that discussions may bring an agreement and a temporary reprieve from the crisis at hand, but they also know that in time, that agreement will be broken by the North, only to be followed by another crisis.
So why do we keep renegotiating with North Korea? Mostly because we have no other options. A military response could ignite a war on the peninsula, resulting in hundreds of thousands of casualties. Trying to collapse the regime by other means is difficult without Chinese support. And slapping more sanctions on a country that has been under U.S. sanctions for more than half a century may be a tactic, but it clearly isn't a solution.
4. China is the key to getting North Korea to cooperate.
China may have leverage over North Korea, but leverage doesn't work unless it's applied - and China has reason to be timid about exercising its muscle. The collapse of the Soviet Union and, more recently, the end of South Korea's "sunshine policy" of unconditional engagement with the North have left the Chinese as Pyongyang's only supporters. President George W. Bush used to tell Beijing that it needed to step up and use its influence to push North Korea to denuclearize. The Obama administration has rightly continued that message.
But China's motives are frequently misunderstood. Many see its stance toward North Korea as deriving mostly from ideology ("China is supporting its little communist brother"), incompetence ("China does not know how to discipline its neighbor") or tactical maneuvering ("Beijing wants to keep the United States preoccupied with North Korea while China grows stronger" and "China likes having North Korea as a buffer between itself and South Korea").
While there is some truth to each of these perceptions, Beijing faces a deeper dilemma. Yes, China can cut off oil supplies to try to pressure Pyongyang. But because they are the only ones helping the North, China's leaders are afraid that such a move would collapse the regime and send millions of starving refugees flooding over its border. The Chinese have no easy way of determining how much pressure they should use, so they remain paralyzed, making ineffectual gestures (Chinese diplomat Dai Bingguo's visit to Pyongyang last week falls in this category) and issuing meaningless calls for calm.
5. Since Korean unification is not in any regional power's interests, the North will continue to muddle along.
For the past decade, the fear of chaos following a North Korean collapse led many experts and diplomats in Asia and the United States to conclude that unification was too dangerous to pursue. Instead, they supported gradual engagement, with the hope that reforms might lead to a "soft landing" that would eventually reintegrate the two Koreas. However, as North Korea grows more belligerent, as its nuclear ambitions advance and as Kim Jong Il's health deteriorates, more observers have started thinking seriously about unification as the only real long-term solution.
In South Korea, President Lee Myung-bak has lectured his nation on the need to be prepared for such an eventuality and has even proposed a unification tax, to be levied on South Korean income today to help cover the costs of future unification. Seoul's Unification Ministry, which used to be the designated agency for economic handouts to the North, is now using its funds to support Davos-style international conferences to educate Koreans and people around the world about the benefits of unification. Last year, President Obama and Lee issued a joint statement calling for a united Korea that is free and at peace. Japan and Russia, which traditionally had reservations about unification, have also come to see the North's current path as potentially more costly and threatening than unification.
As a result, China is increasingly alone in clinging to the idea of a divided peninsula.
Victor D. Cha is a professor at Georgetown University and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served on the National Security Council staff as director of Asian affairs during the George W. Bush administration.
December 10th, 2010, 16:59
American Patriot
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
North Korea stresses commitment to nuclear weapons
By Maria Antonova (AFP) – 4 hours ago
MOSCOW — North Korea vowed on Friday to push ahead with its "army first" policy and rely on nuclear weapons to defend itself from the joint forces of South Korea and the United States.
But the bellicose language of Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun was immediately followed by the announcement that he would travel to Russia next week in an apparent bid to negotiate a peaceful end to the nuclear crisis.
The reclusive state's minister told Russia's Interfax news agency that he would pay a rare visit to Moscow on December 12-15 to discuss "bilateral relations and key international problems."
But he stressed in comments from Pyongyang that his country would respond to any pressure with force, and that it would rely on nuclear weapons for deterrence.
North Korea is "assured of the rectitude of our choice of the songun (army first) policy, and in strengthening a defence that relies on nuclear forces for deterrence," said Pak.
His comments came amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity aimed at calming tensions that escalated further with the Stalinist state's November 23 shelling of a South Korean island in the Yellow Sea.
China -- which has failed to condemn the attack despite strong US pressure -- sent senior foreign affairs official Dai Bingguo to Pyongyang to meet leader Kim Jong-Il.
Chinese news reports said the two sides had reached a "consensus" on the peninsula but provided no further details.
US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg is also scheduled to visit Beijing next week in a bid to press the Chinese to take stronger action.
Unlike Beijing, Moscow has lost much of its influence on Pyongyang since the Soviet era.
As a consequence, it has also been far more critical of the Stalinist state, with which it does not even have a functioning rail link.
Moscow has repeatedly urged North Korea to rejoin the six-party peace process with South Korea, China, the United States, Japan and Russia, refusing to back Pyongyang's demand for direct negotiations with Washington.
And Moscow repeated that message on Friday in a sign of what is to come in the Pak-Lavrov talks.
"We need to think about creating conditions to restart talks between the six parties," Grigory Logvinov, said Russia's deputy pointman on North Korea, told Interfax.
"The atmosphere in the region is in a heated state," Logvinov said in comments released moments after Pak's threat.
"The main thing is to take steps to release the tension. All sides must avoid taking any actions that can escalate the situation," the Russian diplomat added.
North Korea's Pak said Pyongyang was always ready to negotiate.
"Even in the atmosphere of the escalated situation, we have expressed support of resuming the six-party negotiation process," he said.
Some analysts suggested that North Korea was turning to its former Communist provider as an act of desperation and because it was running out of other options.
"The visit of the North Korean minister to Moscow is a symbolic event. Russia is not the main actor in settling the Korean conflict, but no one else is able to do anything," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs.
"North Korea does not perceive Russia as part of the hostile West, nor does it fear it like China. Russian diplomacy has the chance to play a positive role, relieve tension, quell passions, so that the sides stop looking at each other through their gun sights."
Russia last played a major role in the crisis in 2001, when Kim Jong-Il famously took a train across the country from Kremlin talks with then-president Vladimir Putin.
December 10th, 2010, 19:26
Backstop
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
"We are once again assured of the rectitude of our choice of the songun (army first) policy, and in strengthening a defence that relies on nuclear forces for deterrence," he said.
Moments after his comments, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement stating that "all sides must avoid taking any actions that can escalate the situation."
December 10th, 2010, 22:30
BRVoice
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Has South Korea finally had enough?
By Ashley Rowland Stars and Stripes
Published: December 10, 2010
SEOUL, South Korea — Not since the end of the Korean War nearly six decades ago has South Korea appeared so willing to use significant military force against its northern neighbor, following North Korea’s shelling of a populated South Korean island last month and the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan eight months earlier.
But would South Korea really respond with the kind of military force that could plunge the peninsula into war? Or is it making empty threats? And, how much influence does the U.S. have over South Korea’s response to the North’s next provocation?
Political and military analysts say public frustration over Seoul’s perceived inaction against Pyongyang, as well as dwindling patience with leader Kim Jong Il’s erratic regime, could push the South to retaliate.
“In normal times, this could be regarded simply as an exchange of words,” said Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute in Seoul. “I think there is a danger to actually executing what they said, which may ignite a chain of reactions on both sides, escalating the conflict to quite a serious military conflict.”
Kim Tae-woo of the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses said South Korea has always weighed two options: Retaliate with force against the North and risk war, or remain patient and risk another attack.
So far patience has won. But perhaps no more, Kim said.
The shelling of Yeonpyeong island marked the first time since the Korean War that the North has indiscriminately fired on South Korean territory and killed civilians. And it marks a disturbing escalation in the North’s willingness to stake its claim to waters south of the maritime border it has never recognized, Kim said.
Those waters are strategically important for the protection of sprawling Seoul and an international airport and port at nearby Incheon, Kim said.
“It is our lifeline, and now North Korea is claiming it is theirs,” he said. “If North Korea continues to claim it as their territory, frankly speaking, this is serious enough to go to war.”
Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group in Seoul, said he expects South Korea to respond with force to another assault, particularly if North Korea attacks civilians. But the likelihood that North Korea will attack again decreases if its leaders believe there will be a cost, he added.
“They’re not interested at all in economic reform or economic prosperity or improving the standard of living for their people,” Pinkston said. “The only thing they think about or understand is power.”
But Shunji Hiraiwa, a Korean studies professor at Kwansei Gakuin University in Hyogo, Japan, said South Korean airstrikes are unlikely. The South is making the threat as a way to deter attacks from the North and pacify its own people, who are angry at the North, he said.
The next attack
Many analysts believe it’s a matter of when, not if, North Korea will launch another strike.
Among them is Bruce Bechtol, author of “Defiant Failed State: The North Korean Threat to International Security,” who said nobody knows what form the next provocation will take – perhaps an air attack or special operations teams infiltrating one of the islands near the maritime border.
“Whatever action they do, it’s something that will be very carefully planned for, and it’s something that’s probably been planned for the past two years,” he said.
Bechtol said South Korean commanders should be given the flexibility and the force to respond as needed – something that wasn’t the case at Yeonpyeong.
“I think the thing that makes the difference is taking the proper military steps - taking them immediately and with full force,” said Bechtol, an associate professor of political science at Angelo State University. “That’s what’s going to stop these things from happening.”
It’s not clear whether the U.S. would support airstrikes against the North, which could escalate the conflict and threaten to draw in the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed on South Korean soil.
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday in Seoul that he “did not ask South Korea to take air options off the table” during a meeting with South Korean defense officials. He added that South Korea is a sovereign nation with the right to respond to provocations as it chooses.
Still, the possibility of airstrikes raises thorny questions about how closely the U.S. and South Korea are working together.
During peacetime, South Korea is responsible for responding to violations of the armistice that ended the Korean War. But during what U.S. Forces Korea spokesman David Oten calls a “general wartime scenario,” the top U.S. commander in South Korea would assume control of South Korea’s troops, as well as a scattering of other forces that compose the U.N. Command.
Oten would not say whether South Korea had consulted with the U.S. before announcing its plan to retaliate with airstrikes.
A spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said South Korea is not required to discuss the matter with the U.S., though the two militaries are always sharing information.
“There was probably some ambiguity in the immediate aftermath of Yeonpyeong about the scope of force that the South Korean government might be able to consider,” said Scott Snyder, director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation in Washington. “I think the purpose of this (Mullen’s visit) was to try to iron some of that out.”
He said the only way airstrikes could be used effectively by South Korea would be by planning for the measure.
“Without that prior consultation, both sides would be left staring at each other, saying, ‘Can we do this? Should we do this?’ ” Snyder said. “This is territory that the two Koreas really haven’t been in for over half a century.”
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
From Stever Herman (W7VOA) on Twitter:
Reading KCNA & monitoring Pyongyang radio give indications of #DPRK intent, as like Al Qaeda, they try to justify actions before strikes. 39 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Pyongyang 0100UTC radio news reiterates US-ROK alliance preparing for an "aggressive war at any moment." (But no new threat from #DPRK) 42 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Seems like I can still hear faint signal on 9730 khz. #DPRK Anyone in the Americas able to hear them? 11735, 13760, 15180? about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
Voice of Korea (#DPRK) abruptly went off air on 7220 khz just as English newscast was starting at 0100 UTC. Power failure? about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
December 11th, 2010, 15:42
BRVoice
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
DPRK says its army and people ready for all-out war
English.news.cn 2010-12-11 21:50:09
PYONGYANG, Dec. 11 (Xinhua) - The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) said its army and people were ready for escalated conflicts and all-out war that would not be confined to the peninsula, the official news agency KCNA reported Saturday.
According to the KCNA, a spokesman for the National Peace Committee of Korea said in the statement released Saturday that the recent moves of the U.S. indicated that it was fully joining in South Korea's moves for a war of aggression against the DPRK after "throwing away the disguise of a hypocrite".
It was clear that if the South Korean army mobilized all flying corps, warships and missiles for a war against the DPRK and the U.S. joined them with the latest weapons, it would develop into an all-out war, not a local war, he said.
The spokesman said South Korea and the U.S. fabricated the sinking of the South Korean warship the Cheonan early this year and the recent Yonphyong Island shelling incident was aimed at sparking an all-out war.
It was ridiculous for the south to talk about a "right to self-defence". It was no more than "war servants and colonial stooges" of the U.S., he said.
"Should an all-out war break out again on this land, it will not be confined to the boundaries of the peninsula," he said.
The army and people who are ready for both escalated war and an all-out war will "deal merciless retaliatory blows" at the provocateurs and aggressors and blow up their bases and thus honorably defend the dignity and security of the nation, he said.
He warned South Korea and the U.S. to bear in mind that their ignition of a dangerous war would bring them nothing but self-destruction.
It was reported that the U.S. and South Korea held a meeting of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea and the U.S. in Seoul on Dec. 8 over a military attack on the DPRK under the pretext of "deterring provocation".
Tension on the peninsula increased after the exchange of artillery fire on Nov. 23 between South Korea and DPRK, which killed four people.
Editor: Deng Shasha
December 11th, 2010, 15:45
BRVoice
Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Steve Herman (W7VOA) on Twitter:
The few previous mentions of KJU had called him ch'o'ngnyo'n taejang (young general). #DPRK 9 minutes ago via TweetDeck
First reference in #DPRK media spotted calling Kim Jong Un chongyo'nghanu'n taejang (respected General). 10 minutes ago via TweetDeck
#DPRK Peace Comm.: ROK, US "better behave themselves" as starting war will bring them nothing but self-destruction." #Koreas 14 minutes ago via TweetDeck