Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Internal conflicts? LOL
The only internal conflict we have is why the hell is Obama still in office and hasnt been impeached yet.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
I think the internal conflict thing means the widely reported OWS and similar.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Phil Fiord
I think the internal conflict thing means the widely reported OWS and similar.
Yeah... Phil, sorry, I am not that naive. I know what it is referring to. But this is not "internal conflict".
That would be more like the leaders of the parties fighting it out behind closed doors and then coming up with a plan to oust the leadership, either the President, or Congressional leaders to gain control of the law making.
We're not under "civil war" and if it comes to that, most of us won't have to lift a finger... the Cops have already proved (as have some of the even LEFTIST leaders) that they aren't going to tolerate shutting down the economy.
Even Left Wing Bloomberg in NYC has cracked down on them. So has Leftist Oakland, CA.
The "internal conflict" is now between the "Socialists" and "Anarchists"... everything is coming together just the way I planned it...
Oh, shit, that was a secret, don't tell anyone.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Iran boycott mars rare Middle East nuclear talks
http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?...=BTRE7AK18PO00
By Fredrik Dahl
VIENNA | Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:05am EST
(Reuters) - Israel and its Arab neighbors sat in the same room on Monday for rare discussions on banning nuclear weapons in the Middle East, although the meeting was marred by the absence of boycotting Iran.
Arab states, including Syria and Lebanon, took aim at Israel over the atomic arsenal it is widely believed to possess but has never officially confirmed.
But despite the expected Arab criticism of the Jewish state, participants described the opening of the two-day closed-door meeting as less confrontational than the heated rhetoric that usually marks public discussions about the sensitive issue.
"The atmosphere is fine," said an Arab diplomat. "It seemed constructive," one Western envoy said about the first session.
The November 21-22 forum - hosted by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - has been billed as a symbolically significant bid to bring regional foes together at the same venue, although no concrete outcome is expected.
"That both Israel and the Arab states summoned the political will to attend the IAEA session, and thus to allow it finally to take place, was a positive development," said proliferation expert Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
If conducted smoothly with relatively toned-down rhetoric on all sides, it could send a positive signal ahead of a planned international conference next year to discuss establishing a zone free of nuclear arms in the Middle East.
Israel, presumed to be the region's only nuclear power and its only country not to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has said it would sign the 1970 pact and renounce nuclear weapons only as part of a broader Middle East peace deal with Arab states and Iran that guaranteed its security.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog suspects Iran may be seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and Western countries fear an arms race in the region.
Iran said it would not take part in the discussions after the IAEA's 35-nation governing board passed a resolution on Friday rebuking it for its atomic activities.
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano, opening Monday's meeting, urged Middle East countries to engage in "fresh thinking" and said he hoped the event "will help to promote dialogue on a nuclear weapon-free zone" in the region.
Iran, which denies there is a military purpose to its nuclear work, has accused Amano of pro-Western bias and of failing to address Israel's presumed atomic arsenal.
"In refusing to attend, Iran has dealt yet another blow to the vision of a nuclear-weapon free zone, which will require concerted political will by all regional players," Fitzpatrick said.
ARABS Criticize ISRAEL
Syria, Lebanon and other Arab countries which spoke in the morning session attacked Israel, either directly or indirectly and called on it to join a global anti-nuclear arms pact, one official who followed the talks said.
Syrian Ambassador Bassam Al-Sabbagh told the meeting that Israel's nuclear capabilities pose a "grave and continuous threat," the official said, adding that other Arab envoys were milder in their statements. Israel had yet to speak.
The talks focused on the experiences of regions which have set up Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZ), including Africa and Latin America, and how the Middle East can learn from them. Representatives of those zones addressed the meeting.
IAEA member states decided in 2000 to hold the forum but it has taken this long for the parties involved to agree on the agenda and other issues. All agency members were invited.
Finland has agreed to host a 2012 conference to discuss formally banning nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
The idea for the meeting came from Egypt, which pushed for talks among all states in the region on a nuclear arms-free zone, still seen by many experts as a distant prospect.
(Editing by Peter Graff)
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
I blew up the uranium manufacturing plant.
Just thought I'd pass that on.
I'm tired of our government not taking action, so I took it.
/chuckles
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Analysis: "Cold War" with Iran heats up across Mideast
http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=BTRE7B41AMO00
By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent
LONDON | Mon Dec 5, 2011 11:47am EST
(Reuters) - Worries of Israel striking Iran might or might not be overblown but across the region the largely hidden "cold war" between Tehran and its enemies is escalating fast, bringing with it wider risk of conflict.
Speculation Israel might attack Iran's nuclear program has been rife in the Israeli media and oil markets in recent weeks, with concerns that Tehran might retaliate with devastating attacks on Gulf oil shipments.
But that debate, experts say, misses large parts of the bigger picture. An increasingly isolated Iran alarms not just Israel and the West but its Gulf neighbors, especially longtime foe Saudi Arabia, and they are already fighting back - and the confrontation goes well beyond simply tightening sanctions.
From proxy wars in Iraq and Syria to computer worm attacks and unexplained explosions in Iran - to allegations of an assassination plot in Washington - a confrontation once kept behind the scenes is breaking into increasingly open view.
The storming of Britain's Tehran embassy last week - and the tit-for-tat shutdown of Iran's embassy in London - were just the latest signs that already limited dialogue is beginning to break down. That, analysts say, is inherently dangerous.
"With Iran, you have a government that is increasingly isolated and acting in increasingly unpredictable ways," says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and National Studies in Washington.
"There is certainly the risk that a country will take the deliberate decision to attack Iran. But there is also the risk that something happens that provokes... a war that nobody planned and nobody wants."
With the euro zone crisis still far from over and worldwide demand already faltering, such action and the resulting oil price surge could be disastrous for the global economy.
Confrontation is, of course, far from new. Tehran has long used militant groups such as Lebanon's Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories to shape regional politics and strike enemies, particularly Israel.
The United States and Britain long accused Iran of using Shi'ite Muslim militias in Iraq to kill Western troops and impose Tehran's agenda.
The Sunni-ruled states of the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, say Iran stirs up unrest in their Shi'ite communities, although many Western analysts believe blaming Iran for protests this year in those countries is an overstatement or at least oversimplification.
Many such confrontations across the region appear escalating fast - and becoming much harder for Washington and its allies to control.
PROXY WARS
"U.S. and Western power in the region is weakening, and that is leaving a vacuum - most notably in Iraq - and you can see the main stakeholders in the region reacting to Iran's readiness to fill that vacuum," says Reva Bhalla, head of analysis at US private intelligence company Stratfor.
This year's uprising in Syria - Iran's rare Arab friend - has created a new battlefield. Since the early days of the uprising, U.S. officials repeatedly and pointedly said they believed Assad's government was receiving support from Tehran.
Assad has since been rapidly abandoned by the Arab League, in a diplomatic effort led by Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Arab Gulf states. Analysts and officials say that could have as much to do with pushing back against Iran as in reining in killings and rights abuses in Syria itself.
Saudi or other Arab backing for the increasingly armed opposition could escalate matters further, potentially producing a sectarian civil war lasting years and spilling across borders into neighboring states.
In Iraq, the withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of this year leaves more room for both Iran and Sunni Arab neighbors to intervene through proxy militias. At worst, that could reignite the Sunni-Shia infighting that nearly tore the country apart during the US occupation.
"A proxy Saudi-Iranian war in Iraq represents a very considerable threat to oil supplies," said Alastair Newton, chief political analyst at Japanese bank Nomura.
POWER STRUGGLE
Some of the increased friction with its neighbors could be a symptom of a power struggle within Iran itself, Newton said.
"I think one of the reasons you're seeing temperature rising between Iran and others is because you're seeing temperature rising in Tehran itself."
Recent events such as the embassy storming, in which Iran seemed willing to tear up the international rulebook, could be a sign of increasing clout of hardline clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders.
The attack on Britain's embassy prompted widespread international condemnation and looks to have ushered in a much tighter sanctions. That too may strengthen the hardliners.
The United States said in October it had caught Iran plotting to blow up the Saudi ambassador to Washington DC in a downtown restaurant. Whether or not the plot was genuine - and whoever was behind it - it marked a further worsening of relations.
COVERT ACTION
Iran's enemies appear to be using unconventional methods against it, suspected of striking within its borders. Israel and the United States both make clear they view covert operations as a sensible alternative to conventional military action.
Last year's Stuxnet computer worm, which damaged computers used in industrial machinery, was widely believed to have been a U.S.-Israeli attack to cripple Iranian nuclear centrifuges.
Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed or disappeared, and Iran blames U.S. or Israeli intelligence services.
Two explosions last month in Iran, one of which killed a Revolutionary Guards gunnery general and around a dozen other officers, prompted widespread speculation in Israel that its intelligence services were involved.
Iran said the first blast was an accident and has not given clear accounts of the second incident.
Israeli officials refuse to confirm or deny they were behind any specific incidents. Several commentators and newspapers warned such action could still backfire badly - perhaps prompting the kind of rocket attacks on Israel launched last week by Hizbollah from Lebanon.
"Faced with such operations, the Iranian regime is embarking on and will embark on a series of actions of its own," said a front-page article in the Israeli newspaper Maariv by Nadav Eyal, foreign editor for Israel's Channel Ten television.
As to whether a deliberate air strike on Iran's nuclear program is genuinely more likely in the coming months, experts are divided. The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq makes it possible for Israeli jets to pass through its airspace without needing U.S. permission. But many say the costs would be too high.
"The problem is that no one knows what the mid-term consequences would be," said Alterman at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It could simply encourage the regime in place and intensify their commitment to following a nuclear program with even more energy than before."
(Additional reporting by Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Peter Graff)
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Nuttin' happenin' here, Peterle, move along.
/chuckles
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
U.S. warns Iran against closing Hormuz oil route
Updated 44m ago
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – The U.S. warned Iran Wednesday that it will not tolerate any disruption of naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran's navy chief said the Islamic Republic is capable of closing the vital oil route if the West imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports.
Iran's Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV that closing the strait, which is the only sea outlet for the crucial oil fields in and around the Persian Gulf, "is very easy" for his country's naval forces.
It was the second such warning by Iran in two days, reflecting Tehran's concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could hit the country's biggest source of revenue, its oil sector. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait if the West imposes such sanctions.
In response, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption at the strait "will not be tolerated."
The spokeswoman, Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies if sanctions are imposed, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to offset any loss of Iranian crude.
That reassurance led to a drop in world oil prices. In New York, benchmark crude fell 77 cents to $100.57 a barrel in morning trading. Brent crude fell 82 cents to $108.45 a barrel in London.
Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.
The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings. Critics warn it could impose hardships on U.S. allies and drive up oil prices.
The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions.
Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.
Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
The navy is in the midst of a 10-day drill in international waters near the strategic oil route. The exercises began Saturday and involve submarines, missile drills, torpedoes and drones. The war games cover a 1,250-mile (2,000-kilometer) stretch of sea off the Strait of Hormuz, northern parts of the Indian Ocean and into the Gulf of Aden near the entrance to the Red Sea as a show of strength and could bring Iranian ships into proximity with U.S. Navy vessels in the area.
Iranian media are describing how Iran could move to close the strait, saying the country would use a combination of warships, submarines, speed boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, surface-to-sea missiles and drones to stop ships from sailing through the narrow waterway.
Iran's navy claims it has sonar-evading submarines designed for shallow waters of the Persian Gulf, enabling it to hit passing enemy vessels.
A closure of the strait could temporarily cut off some oil supplies and force shippers to take longer, more expensive routes that would drive oil prices higher. It also potentially opens the door for a military confrontation that would further rattle global oil markets.
Iran claimed a victory this month when it captured an American surveillance drone almost intact. It went public with its possession of the RQ-170 Sentinel to trumpet the downing as a feat of Iran's military in a complicated technological and intelligence battle with the U.S.
American officials have said that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the drone malfunctioned.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Pentagon - POLITICS
Pentagon: Iranian Disruption of Oil Route 'Will Not Be Tolerated'
Published December 28, 2011
| FoxNews.com
AP
Dec. 28, 2011: Members of the Iran Navy participate in a drill in the Sea of Oman.
U.S. military officials warned Wednesday that any attempt by Iran to disrupt oil shipments at the mouth of the Persian Gulf "will not be tolerated," as Iran threatened for the second day in a row to interfere with the critical passageway.
Pentagon spokesman George Little describe the route, the Strait of Hormuz, as an "economic lifeline" vital to stability in the region. He said any attempt to block it would be "problematic."
Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet warned Iran against disrupting shipments in the strait, saying the U.S. Navy keeps a "robust presence in the region" and is "ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated," Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich said.
The warning comes as Iranian officials stand by earlier threats to use the passageway to retaliate if the West imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports over the country's suspect nuclear program.
Iran's navy chief warned Wednesday that his country can close the waterway. "Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces," Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV. "Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway."
On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi also threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.
All of this comes at a tense time, as the Iranian navy carries out a 10-day naval exercise that includes dispatching warships and drones over the vital waterway. The exercises are being carried out on the eastern side of the strait and down into the Gulf of Aden and could put Iranian ships on a collision course with U.S. naval vessels.
The strait is just 34 miles wide, and about 20 percent of the world's oil shipments pass through.
The mere threat of closing the strait has caused oil prices to rise above $100 a barrel.
With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to offset any loss of Iranian crude.
That reassurance led to a drop in world oil prices. In New York, benchmark crude fell 77 cents to $100.57 a barrel in morning trading. Brent crude fell 82 cents to $108.45 a barrel in London.
But a closure of the strait could temporarily cut off some oil supplies and force shippers to take longer, more expensive routes that would drive oil prices higher. It also potentially opens the door for a military confrontation that would further rattle global oil markets.
The threats underline Iranian concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target Tehran's vital oil industry and exports.
Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.
The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings. Critics warn it could impose hardships on U.S. allies and drive up oil prices.
The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions.
Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.
Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
As the Pentagon warns Iran against taking any action in the Strait of Hormuz, a State Department spokesman said Tuesday that "obviously there's an element of bluster" to some of the Iranian comments.
Fox News' Jennifer Griffin and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Iran rattles saber, threatens to shut Strait of Hormuz oil supply route
U.S. Navy says Iranian threat 'will not be tolerated'
BY Joseph Straw
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Wednesday, December 28 2011, 1:34 PM
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopo..._485/image.jpg Na Son Nguyen/AP
The U.S. Navy says Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz “will not be tolerated.”
WASHINGTON -- Iran Wednesday threatened to shut the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route if sanctions are leveled on its oil industry.
Blocking the strait would choke off about a sixth of the world’s oil supply — and dramatically excalate tensions with the rogue regime in Tehran.
As tough-talk diplomacy played out,
Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have pledged to boost oil production in the event of a crisis. The offer alone eased crude oil prices on world markets.
Iran, which advocates the destruction of Israel, is under increasing pressure to abandon a nuclear program that could produce an atomic bomb.
Tehran anticipates Western sanctions targeting its oil industry, which generates 80% of the country’s cash.
As a result, Iran has mounted a massive, 10-day naval exercise outside the 34-mile wide strait linking Persian Gulf oil ports with the open sea.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces," Iranian Navy Chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run media. "Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway.”
The U.S. Navy responded Wednesday with a stern warning of its own.
The Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption at the strait "will not be tolerated."
Lt. Rebecca Rebarich said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
The Iranian Navy’s last showdown with its U.S. counterpart ended badly for the Islamic Republic.
Limited fighting in 1987 and 1988 during U.S. escorts of Kuwaiti oil tankers through the gulf resulted in the sinking of an Iranian attack ship and frigate, and damage to others.
The U.S. also mistakenly downed an Iranian airliner it mistook for a fighter, killing all 290 on board.
President Obama is set sign legislation that would levy penalties on countries that do business with Iran’s national bank, which would further pinch Iranian exports, including its oil industry.
Benchmark crude fell 77 cents to $100.57 in New York early Wednesday, and 82 cents to 108.45 in London.
With News wire services
jstraw@nydailynews.com
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
| Report: Israel, US mull Iran strike triggers
Daily Beast website says that after Israel filed official complaint over Panetta's remark that attack on Iran could 'consume Mideast,' Washington assured Jerusalem it would attack if Tehran's nuke program crosses certain 'red lines'
Ynet
The Obama administration has assured Israel privately that the US would strike Iran if its nuclear program cross certain "red lines," The Daily Beast reported Wednesday, adding that at the same time Washington was trying to convince Israel not to attack Tehran unilaterally.
According to the report, the "Israelis went ballistic" after US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said earlier this month that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities could “consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret."
Related articles:
Israeli Ambassador to Washington Michael Oren lodged a formal diplomatic protest, prompting the White House to reassure Jerusalem that the administration had its own "red lines" that would trigger a strike on Iran and that there is no need for Israel to operate unilaterally, the American news website reported.
The Daily Beast said three senior US military officials have confirmed that analysts in the Pentagon were trying to predict which developments in Iran could lead to a preemptive Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities.
http://www.ynetnews.com/PicServer2/1...92457/1_wa.jpg
Iranian nuclear site (archives)
The report said that despite repeated requests going back to 2009, Netanyahu's government has not agreed to ask the US for permission or give significant advanced warning of any pending strike.
Shortly after the Israeli ambassador lodged a complaint over Panetta's remarks, the American defense secretary told CBS's "60 Minutes" that should Iran proceed with developing a nuclear weapon "then we will take whatever steps necessary to stop it."
According to The Daily Beast, Matthew Kroenig, who served as special adviser on Iran to the Office of the Secretary of Defense between July 2010 and July 2011, offered some of the possible "red lines" for a military strike on Iran. In a recent Foreign Affairs article he argued that the US should strike Iran’s facilities "if Iran expels international nuclear weapons inspectors, begins enriching its stockpiles of uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90%, or installs advanced centrifuges at its main uranium-enrichment facility in Qom."
In an interview with The Daily Beast, Kroenig also mentioned that the Islamic Republic announced in 2009 that it was set to construct 10 new uranium enrichment sites. "I doubt they are building 10 new sites, but I would be surprised if Iran was not racing to build some secret enrichment facilities," Kroenig told The Daily Beast.
"Progress on new facilities would be a major factor in our assessment of Iran’s nuclear program and shape all aspects of our policy towards this including the decision to use force," he said.
|
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
US to Israel: We'll Attack Iran if Certain Nuclear Lines Are Crossed
Wednesday, 28 Dec 2011 01:01 PM
By Dan Weil
White House officials are letting Israel know that there are certain red lines that, if crossed, would trigger an attack on Iran, so there’s no need for Israel to move unilaterally, The Daily Beast reports.
Israel has expressed dismay at past indications from the Obama administration that it would be reluctant to consider a military attack against Iran to prevent the rogue nation from gaining nuclear weapons.
Matthew Kroenig, who served as special adviser on Iran to the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2010-2011, listed some possible red lines in a recent story he wrote for Foreign Affairs.
The Foreign Affairs article stated the United States should attack Iran’s facilities if that nation kicks out international nuclear weapons inspectors, starts enriching its inventory of uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90 percent, or installs advanced centrifuges at its main uranium-enrichment center in Qom.
“Progress on new [uranium enrichment] facilities would be a major factor in our assessment of Iran’s nuclear program and shape all aspects of our policy toward this, including the decision to use force,” Kroenig told The Daily Beast.
Until recently, White House officials shied away from public talk of an attack against Iran, hinting only vaguely that all options are on the table.
Israel was particularly worried by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s comments earlier this month that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could “consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret.”
In a dangerous pre-election dance, President Barack Obama hopes to both prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capability and Israel from initiating an attack that could lead to a wider conflagration in the Mideast.
Israeli fears were reflected in a Dec. 24 speech by Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, Moshe Ya’alon. The West must incorporate four elements into its plan to stop Iran from going nuclear, and the last one is a military attack if necessary, he said.
“The fourth element of this combined strategy is the credible military strike,” Ya’alon said, according to a recording of the speech provided to The Daily Beast. “There is no credible military action when we hear leaders from the West, saying, ‘this is not a real option,’ or saying, ‘the price of military action is too high.’ ”
The Obama and Netanyahu administrations have faced tension over the Iran issue since Obama took office in 2009. The White House wants Netanyahu to ask for permission before launching a strike -- or at least give significant advance notice. Israel has declined.
Efforts at resolving the tension intensified this month. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak came to Washington to discuss the issue. Meanwhile, Wendy Sherman, undersecretary of state for political affairs, and Robert Einhorn, a special arms control adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, traveled to Israel last week for the same reason.
Panetta changed his tune a bit last week, telling CBS News that the United States would use force if necessary to eliminate Iran’s nuclear option. So now the two nations are discussing what red-line triggers would prompt military action.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Iran intensifies war of words with U.S. over threat to close oil shipping lane following nuclear arms row
- Four mile-wide strait is world's most important oil shipping lane
- Iranian First Vice President repeats threat to close oil shipping lane
- U.N. report in November claimed Iran is designing an atomic bomb
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...igg_button.png
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 8:32 AM on 14th December 2011
A war of words broke out between Washington and Tehran last night after the Iranians threatened to choke off one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Tensions rose after Iran’s top naval commander bragged that shutting down the Gulf to oil tankers would be ‘easier than drinking a glass of water.’
The implied threat triggered an angry response from the US Fifth Fleet, which warned it would not allow any disruption in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz - through which 40 per cent of the world’s tanker-borne oil passes.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...20_634x444.jpg Tensions: A military helicopter flies over a submarine during the Velayat-90 war games by the Iranian navy in the Strait of Hormuz today
‘Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated,’ said a spokesperson for the Bahrain-based fleet.
‘The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity,’ the statement added.
Britain dismissed the Iranian boasts as an attempt to draw attention from its nuclear ambitions.
Playing down the threat, a Foreign Office spokesman said: ‘Iranian politicians regularly use this type of rhetoric to distract attention from the real issue, which is the nature of their nuclear programme.’
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...23_634x403.jpg Military personnel place an Iranian flag on a submarine in the Strat of Hormuz, as tensions escalate over the country's apparent design of nuclear weapons
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...00_634x372.jpg Lookout: A submarine performs naval maneuvers on the Sea of Oman during naval exercises in international waters
Tehran warned a week ago it would shut down the strategically vital shipping lane if the West took tougher action against Iran.
Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said Iran wouldn’t allow ‘a drop of oil’ to pass through the strait if sanctions were widened.
The row ratcheted up another notch yesterday after Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, head of the Iranian navy, declared that ‘closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran’ s armed forces is really easy – or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water.’
Whilst naval chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV: 'Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway.'
The comments drew a quick response from the U.S, with Pentagon press secretary George Little saying: 'This is not just an important issue for security and stability in the region, but is an economic lifeline for countries in the Gulf, to include Iran.'
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...92_634x476.jpg Threat: An Iranian politician claims the country's military is preparing to close off the Strait of Hormuz - the most important oil transport channel in the world
Western tensions with Iran have increased since a U.N report claimed last month that Tehran appears to have worked on designing an atomic bomb.
Iran strongly denies this and insists it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
The possibility of imposing sanctions on Iran has divided U.N nations.
Iran has defiantly expanded nuclear activity despite four rounds of U.N. sanctions meted out since 2006 over its refusal to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...91_306x343.jpg Parviz Sarvari, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, said Iran was preparing to close off the Strait as part of an exercise
Many diplomats believe only sanctions targeting Iran's lifeblood oil sector might be painful enough to make it change course, but Russia and China - big trade partners of Tehran - have blocked such a move at the United Nations.
Iran this week repeated the warning it issued earlier this month, stating that should sanction be imposed it will cut off oil access through the Strait of Hormuz - the world's fourth biggest oil shipping lane.
However, the U.S. State Department has since dismissed Iran's threats by describing them as having 'an element of bluster'.
According to official Iranian news agency IRNA, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned this week: 'If they (the West) impose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.'
But Mark Toner, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, responded: 'It's another attempt to distract attention away from the real issue, which is their continued non-compliance with their international nuclear obligations.'
Rahimi's remarks coincided with a 10-day Iranian naval exercise in the Strait and nearby waters, a show of military force that began on Saturday.
'Our enemies will give up on their plots against Iran only if we give them a firm and strong lesson,' Rahimi said.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...84_634x382.jpg Important: Around a third of the world's shipped oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz
Around a third of all shipped oil passes through the four mile-wide Strait between Oman and Iran and U.S. warships patrol the area to ensure safe passage.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...76_306x371.jpg Former U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney said President Obama should have ordered an airstrike over Iran after their refusal to hand back the unmanned spy plane that crashed last month
Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq - together with nearly all the liquefied natural gas from lead exporter Qatar is transported through the channel.
After a news agency mistakenly reported the straight had already been closed, crude oil prices leapt by almost $2 to $100.45/per barrel, but they later stabilised.
Last month, Iran's energy minister told Al Jazeera that Tehran could use oil as a political tool in the event of any future conflict over its nuclear program.
Tensions over the program have increased since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on November 8 that Tehran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end.
Iran has warned it will respond to any attack by hitting Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf and analysts say one way to retaliate would be to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Last month former U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney said President Obama should have ordered an airstrike over Iran after their refusal to hand back the unmanned spyplane that crashed in November.
During a White House news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Mr Obama said: 'We have asked for it back. We'll see how the Iranians respond.'
But Mr Cheney told CNN: 'The right response would have been to go in immediately after it had gone down and destroy it.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/...39_634x405.jpg Boast: Officials in Iran claim they can 'mass produce' the captured RQ-170 Sentinel drone and build a 'superior' version following its crash on December 4
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Rumor has it Iran is "testing missiles" at sea today/tonight. Wonder what kind of targets they are using?
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
December 28, 2011 10:33 AM
U.S. Navy: Hormuz disruption won't be tolerated
http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/201...57_620x350.jpg Iran's navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari briefs media on an upcoming naval exercise, in a press conference in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011. (Hamed Jafarnejad,AP Photo/Fars News Agency)
(CBS/AP) The U.S. Navy said any attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz would "not be tolerated," after Iranian officials threatened to choke off the key oil supply route.
Iran's navy chief warned Wednesday that his country can easily close the strategic strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a sixth of the world's oil flows.
It was the second such warning in two days. On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran's oil shipments.
"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces," Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV. "Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway," the navy chief said.
Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz, vital oil route
In response, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption "will not be tolerated." The spokeswoman, Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to offset any loss of Iranian crude.
That reassurance led to a drop in world oil prices. In New York, benchmark crude fell 77 cents to $100.57 a barrel in morning trading. Brent crude fell 82 cents to $108.45 a barrel in London.
The Iranian threats underline Tehran's concern that the West is about to impose new sanctions that could target the country's vital oil industry and exports.
Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.
The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, and President Barack Obama has said he will sign it despite his misgivings. Critics warn it could impose hardships on U.S. allies and drive up oil prices.
The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations import Iranian oil and use its central bank for the transactions.
With concern growing over a possible drop-off in Iranian oil supplies, a senior Saudi oil official said Gulf Arab nations are ready to step in if necessary and offset any potential loss of Iranian crude in the world markets.
Reflecting unease over the rising tensions, the U.S. benchmark crude futures contract for February delivery was above $101 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Its London-based Brent counterpart fell slightly, but still remained above $109 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.
Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
The navy is in the midst of a 10-day drill in international waters near the strategic oil route. The exercises began Saturday and involve submarines, missile drills, torpedoes and drones. The war games cover a 1,250-mile stretch of sea off the Strait of Hormuz, northern parts of the Indian Ocean and into the Gulf of Aden near the entrance to the Red Sea as a show of strength and could bring Iranian ships into proximity with U.S. Navy vessels in the area.
Iranian media are describing how Iran could move to close the strait, saying the country would use a combination of warships, submarines, speed boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedoes, surface-to-sea missiles and drones to stop ships from sailing through the narrow waterway.
Iran's navy claims it has sonar-evading submarines designed for shallow waters of the Persian Gulf, enabling it to hit passing enemy vessels.
A closure of the strait could temporarily cut off some oil supplies and force shippers to take longer, more expensive routes that would drive oil prices higher. It also potentially opens the door for a military confrontation that would further rattle global oil markets.
Iran claimed a victory this month when it captured an American surveillance drone almost intact. It went public with its possession of the RQ-170 Sentinel to trumpet the downing as a feat of Iran's military in a complicated technological and intelligence battle with the U.S.
American officials have said that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate the drone malfunctioned.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
It looks like this is the leading news item on Google right now.
(the threats to close Hormuz and the threats to keep it open)
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
from the new york slimes....
Noise Level Rises Over Iran Threat to Close Strait of Hormuz
By RICK GLADSTONE
Published: December 28, 2011
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Iran and the United States elevated the belligerent tone between them on Wednesday over an Iranian vow to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital Middle East waterway for oil tanker traffic, if Western powers attempted to make good on their threat to stifle Iran’s petroleum exports.
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Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, Iran’s naval commander, said that “Iran has total control over the strategic waterway,” and that “Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces,” in remarks carried by Press TV, an official Iranian news site. Admiral Sayyari, whose forces are in the midst of an ambitious war-games exercise in waters near the Strait of Hormuz, was the second top Iranian official to make such a threat in 24 hours.
Both the Defense Department and the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain and patrols the Strait of Hormuz, responded to Admiral Sayyari’s remarks in statements that suggested American warships would stop the Iranians if necessary.
“The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity,” Lt. Rebecca Rebarich, a spokeswoman for the Fifth Fleet command in Manama, Bahrain, said in an emailed response. “Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated.”
The statement also said “The U.S. Navy is a flexible, multi-capable force committed to regional security and stability, always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.”
George Little, the Pentagon press secretary, issued a similar warning, but he also pointed out that the Pentagon was “unaware of any aggressive or hostile action directed against U.S. ships” at this time.
France weighed in with a reaction to the Iranian threat as well, calling on Iran to respect international law regarding the strait, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and separates Oman and Iran. Bernard Valero, a spokesman for France’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters at a regular news briefing: “The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait. As a result, all ships regardless of their nationality benefit from the right of transit in line with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and international maritime customs.”
On Tuesday, Iran’s vice president, Mohammad Reza-Rahimi, was the first top Iranian official to explicitly threaten to close the Strait, saying that if Western powers “impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.”
The catalyst for the Iranian threats are new efforts underway by the United States and European Union to pressure Iran into disbanding its nuclear program, which Iran has refused to do despite four rounds of sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council.
Those sanctions have not targeted Iran’s oil exports, the world’s third largest. But in recent weeks, the European Union has talked openly of imposing a boycott on Iranian oil, and President Obama is preparing to sign legislation that, if fully enforced, could impose harsh penalties on all buyers of Iran’s oil, with the aim of severely impeding Iran’s ability to sell it. If successful, the measure would create onerous new pressure on the Iranian economy, which is already fraying from the accumulated effects of the other sanctions.
Iran has said its uranium enrichment is purely peaceful, but an International Atomic Energy Agency report issued last month suggested that Iran may be working on a nuclear weapon and a missile delivery system for it. The United States and its allies have said that a nuclear-armed Iran would be unacceptable.
The Strait of Hormuz, with two mile-wide channels for commercial shipping, connects the Sea of Oman to the Persian Gulf, the principal loading point for oil shipped from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. The Strait carried 33 percent of all oil shipped by sea in 2009 and nearly 20 percent of all oil traded worldwide, according to the United States Energy Information Administration, which has called it the world’s most important “oil chokepoint.”
Markets seemed to shrug off Iran’s threats. On Wednesday, the price of the benchmark crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell for the first time in more than week and was trading at just below $100 a barrel at midday.
Elisabeth Bumiller contributed reporting from Washington.
Re: Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed
Iran's threats over Strait of Hormuz? Understandable, but not easy
Iran has issued two threats that it could close the Strait of Hormuz, reminding the world how it could spike oil prices if the US or Israel attacks. But it wouldn't be easy.
By Dan Murphy, Staff writer / December 28, 2011
Strait of Hormuz easily closed: Iranian submarines and warships participate in navy drill in the Sea of Oman Wednesday. Iran's navy chief warned that his country can easily close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the passageway through which a sixth of the world's oil flows.
Mohammad Ali Marizad/Young Journalists Club/AP
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The boasting from an Iranian admiral today that it would be "easy" to close the Strait of Hormuz – the Red Sea chokepoint for much of the world's oil tankers – should be treated as just that.
"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces," Iran's navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told state-run propaganda channel Press TV.
"Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway." His comments followed similar words from Vice President Reza Rohimi yesterday, and an announcement a few weeks ago that the Iranian navy would be conducting military exercises to simulate shutting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of world's sea-borne oil passes.
How serious is this? Sure, the price of oil jumped (traders love the market action, and you have to wonder if the Iranian government had bought oil futures before their state media started hyping this story). But prices are settling back as fear and panic are being replaced with reasoned reflection: A threat to do something isn't a promise that it will happen. A threat is often, as in this case, a way to send a strategic message. Iran is responding to the bellicose rhetoric that's emanated from the US and Israel in recent weeks by saying "we can make you suffer if provoked."
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Could they? Sure. Iranian moves to close the Strait, perhaps by sinking a tanker, would cause oil prices to skyrocket, increase the threat of a broader regional war, and create weeks of uncertainty. It's one of the reasons that a war between the US and Iran, started by either party, seems unlikely. Both economies would be badly damaged.
But if it comes to war could they "close" the Strait? Not for very long.
The US 5th Fleet would stand opposed, as would a number of European powers, whose own faltering economies would topple into outright depression were flows of Gulf oil to the Mediterranean stopped.
Easy? No. "Comprehensive control?" No. Iran spends about $8 billion a year on its military, or about an 80th of US spending. Even European military spending dwarfs Iran's. If France, Germany, and the UK's military expenditures are combined, they spend about 20 times what Iran does. While the publics of the US and Europe may be war-weary, closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an economic catastrophe that would see a massive amount of naval force brought to bear on Iran – and probably consideration of missile attacks on political and military leaders ashore. Iran's leaders know all this, whatever bluster to the contrary.
During the so-called Tanker War between the Iranians and Iraqis during the 1980s, shipping in the Strait was severely threatened by both sides. Both countries sought to deprive the other of oil revenue, and attacked the boats of neutral parties as well as their direct enemies. All of that drove up the price of oil and shipping insurance, but didn't ever close the Strait of Hormuz. Eventually, the US Navy began escorting ships through the Strait, concerned about the global price of oil.
None of this is to say that all the war talk on both sides isn't frightening, or a reason for concern. And it's not to say that Iran couldn't do substantial damage to tanker traffic through the Strait if it comes to war. But the Islamic Republic simply does not have its hands on the spigot for 40 percent of the world's tanker oil, no matter how much it wishes that it did.