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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
KOREA TENSION MAY GO OUT OF CONTROL, HU TELLS OBAMA
By Arshad Mohammed and Michael Martina 34 mins ago
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese President Hu Jintao warned U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday that Korean tensions risk spiraling out of control as the U.S., Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers met to discuss how to deal with North Korea's shelling of the South two weeks ago.
Analysts said Hu's comments showed greater urgency over the mounting tension and an attempt to avoid the perception Beijing is siding with its ally Pyongyang against the United States, Japan and South Korea.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was meeting her counterparts from Seoul and Tokyo in a series of meetings in Washington on Monday to discuss the North Korea situation.
The White House said Obama, in a telephone call with Hu, urged Beijing to work with the United States and others to "send a clear message to North Korea that its provocations are unacceptable.
Admiral Mike Mullen, the top U.S. military officer, will leave for Seoul on Monday evening for meetings with South Korean security and military officials.
"The principal message is to the South Koreans that we continue to stand by them in the defense of their territory and for the stability of the peninsula," said Captain John Kirby, a spokesman for Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"I don't think anyone thinks we're in an emergency situation right now ... That said, it's still tense."
The International Criminal Court's prosecutor said it had opened a preliminary investigation into whether North Korean forces committed war crimes in South Korea, ramping up pressure on the isolated government in Pyongyang.
China, the host of stalled international nuclear talks with Pyongyang, was not invited to the U.S.-Japan-South Korea talks in Washington. But the three are expected to discuss Beijing's proposal for emergency regional talks on the crisis.
SOUTH KOREA STARTS EXERCISES
"The phone call itself could be an attempt to avoid the perception prior to the meeting between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan that it is those three countries on one side facing off against China and Russia on North Korea," said Sun Zhe, director of the Center for U.S-China Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
The conversation between Obama and Hu took place as South Korea started live-fire naval exercises, 13 days after North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong island close to a disputed maritime demarcation line.
"Especially with the present situation, if not dealt with properly, tensions could well rise on the Korean peninsula or spin out of control, which would not be in anyone's interest," Hu said, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement.
"The most pressing task at present is to calmly deal with the situation."
China faces calls from the United States and its allies to do more to curb impoverished North Korea after the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong island, which killed two South Korean civilians and two soldiers.
While Beijing has not apportioned blame for the incident, Hu said China expressed "deep regret" about the deaths.
"We need an easing, not a ratcheting up; dialogue, not confrontation; peace, not war," Hu was quoted as telling Obama.
Hu's comments could also illustrate why China has been hesitant to put pressure on the North, possibly fearing an implosion of its isolated ally as it goes through a leadership transition.
A draft of the statement to be issued by the U.S., Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers -- reported by Japanese broadcaster NHK -- said the three nations expect China to press North Korea to fulfill "responsibilities that had been set in the six-party talks" on abandoning its nuclear weapons program.
The statement would also condemn the attack, NHK said.
Tensions on the peninsula have risen to their highest level in decades after the Yeonpyeong attack, which came days after the North revealed it had made significant advances in its nuclear program.
"China is gravely worried about the situation on the peninsula because if large-scale conflict were to erupt on its border, China would face enormous political and strategic problems," said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University.
Analysts say Pyongyang's latest provocations could be driven by factors including internal politics and its repeated use of threats and violence for leverage to win aid at talks.
Two years ago, North Korea walked out of aid-for-disarmament talks that had brought together the two Koreas, host China, the United States, Japan and Russia.
Pyongyang has said it now wants to restart them and has won the backing of Beijing and Moscow. But Washington, Seoul and Tokyo say they will return only when the North shows it is sincere about curbing its nuclear ambitions.
NORTH SEES SOUTH AS "HELL-BENT"
South Korea began the live-fire naval drills in disputed waters off the west coast, ignoring Pyongyang's warnings that they showed Seoul was "hell-bent" on starting war.
The South's military said exercises were due to take place in the vicinity of the tense Northern Limit Line (NLL) but not near Yeonpyeong island as part of drills at 29 locations around the peninsula.
The North justified last month's attack -- the first of its kind on a civilian area on South Korean soil since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War -- saying the South had fired artillery rounds into its waters.
The South said it had been conducting regular drills in the area but that they were harmless and on its side of the NLL.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
NORTH'S NEW MIDGET SUBS ARE TORPEDO EQUIPPED
Korea JoongAng Daily - In association with International Herald Tribune
December 07, 2010
North Korea’s new midget submarines feature torpedo launch tubes, according to South Korean intelligence sources, suggesting that the North is planning more torpedo strikes.
According to sources, satellite imagery examined by South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials have shown 4-meter-long (13.1 feet) torpedo launch tubes attached to North Korea’s new line of “Daedong-B” minisubmarines. Intelligence authorities from both countries had suspected that satellite images showed launch tubes attached to the submersibles. An intelligence tip later confirmed that they were for lightweight torpedoes.
The Daedong-B model is said to be 17 meters long, 4 meters wide and 2.2 meters high. One special characteristic of the midget submarine, intelligence sources said, is the rear of the vessel, which is shaped like a ramp to easily enable agents to get on and off.
North Korea has also been holding exercises with the new submarines.
“Intense military exercises with the midget submarines were conducted by North Korea in July and recently while South Korean and U.S. troops were holding joint exercises,” a South Korean intelligence official said, adding that the drills were aimed against South Korean vessels.
Based on the evidence, intelligence authorities believe North Korea is now capable of carrying out attacks with its minisubmarines, along with its Yono class submersibles, which the South Korean government believes the North used to sink the Cheonan in March.
North Korea has not made any direct threats to attack the South with its torpedoes since March, which it did on a regular basis before the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan.
However, North Korea’s preference for torpedoes is well-known, and they have been the weapons of choice for Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong-il.
In April 2007, North Korea’s state broadcaster Korean Central Television (KCTV) showed Kim Jong-il instructing marines in a military drill involving torpedoes. The “Dear Leader” was reported to have “laughed with vigor” and immensely approved the torpedo training. Kim was said to have mounted a torpedo-equipped submarine himself and “went out to the wild seas” with the seamen.
North Korean propaganda claims that its torpedo boats sunk the U.S.S. Baltimore in 1950, although the U.S. battleship was never deployed in the Korean War. On the day cited by North Korea for the attack, the U.S.S. Juneau and two British warships destroyed several North Korean torpedo boats escorting supply vessels without any significant return fire from the North Koreans.
By Lee Young-jong, Christine Kim [christine.kim@joongang.co.kr
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Delay in Korea Talks Is a Sign of U.S.-China Tension
By MICHAEL WINES and DAVID E. SANGER
Published: December 6, 2010
The New York Times - Asia Pacific
BEIJING —President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China talked by telephone on Monday about North Korea, culminating 13 days of effort by the White House to persuade China’s leaders to discuss a crisis that many experts fear could escalate into military action.
Administration officials say they have no evidence Mr. Hu was ducking the call, which the Chinese knew would urge them to crack down on their unruly ally, a step Beijing clearly is highly reluctant to take amid a leadership succession in North Korea. White House officials insisted that the long delay was simply the result of scheduling problems.
But in Beijing, both Chinese and American officials and analysts have another explanation: the long silence epitomizes the speed with which relations between Washington and Beijing have plunged into a freeze. This year has witnessed the longest period of tension between the two capitals in a decade. And if anything, both sides appear to be hardening their positions.
“The issues that used to be on the positive side of the ledger are increasingly on the negative side of the ledger, starting with North Korea,” Bonnie Glaser, a China scholar at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview last week. “I don’t think this is easily repairable, and I think we’re going to have a fairly cold relationship over the next two years, and potentially longer.”
Mr. Obama came into office seeking just the opposite: a new rapprochement with a rising power whose deep economic ties with the United States all but demand closer diplomatic ones. But the days when the White House spoke of a “G-2” that would manage the world economy and more, a phrase that preceded the first meeting between Mr. Obama and Mr. Hu in the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, are long over.
Instead, he faces a problem very similar to the one Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton described in March 2009 during a lunch with Kevin Rudd, a China expert who was then Australia’s prime minister, according to a cable recounting their conversation that was in a newly released trove of WikiLeaks documents.
Mrs. Clinton was said to have asked Mr. Rudd, “How do you deal toughly with your banker?”‘
The latest bad sign is that cooperation on managing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, which began with considerable promise in 2009, appears to have disintegrated.
On Monday, Mrs. Clinton was scheduled to convene an emergency meeting in Washington with her Japanese and South Korean counterparts about both the North’s shelling of a South Korean island last month, and its recent disclosure of a new nuclear facility that potentially expands its nuclear arsenal. China, the only nation with real sway over the North Korean leadership, will not be there.
To the contrary, China’s strategy on North Korea is at odds with that of Washington and its allies. In Monday’s telephone call with Mr. Hu, the White House said, Mr. Obama said North Korea’s new enrichment facility flouted commitments it made during the six-party talks on curbing its nuclear program, and urged China’s help in sending “a clear message to North Korea that its provocations are unacceptable.”
One former Chinese official with close ties to the government dismissed the American approach last week as characteristically legalistic. The former official, who would not be named because he is not authorized to speak on the topic, said China’s strategy is to reassure the Koreans about their security, not lecture them about diplomatic obligations.
Indeed, China’s strongest public reaction to last month’s shelling of South Korea has not been to condemn the North, but to criticize Washington’s response — joint war games with South Korea that put the American carrier George Washington and its strike force in the Yellow Sea, off China’s borders.
After Mr. Obama’s national security team met last Tuesday night, administration officials began saying that the United States would conduct more military exercises near North Korea and China should the North engage in further provocations. It was an unmistakable message to Beijing that failing to rein in its ally would only increase an American military presence that China loathes.
But the lack of cooperation on North Korea only hints at the deterioration in the U.S.-China relationship.
In another leaked diplomatic cable, the American ambassador to Beijing, Jon Huntsman, wrote last January that the United States faced “a challenging year ahead” in relations with China, adding: “We need to find ways to keep the relationship positive.”
Instead, two successive meetings between Mr. Obama and China’s top leaders in recent months have yielded little change in China’s management of its currency. A China-based attack on Google computers early this year riveted attention on Beijing’s potential for cyberwar, and provoked nasty exchanges on the two nations’ concepts of free speech. In public and private, China bitterly accuses the United States of engineering the award in October of the Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, Liu Xiaobo, in an effort to undermine its government.
And those are but lowlights of a year in which Chinese officials have railed loudly and publicly against what they consider to be American efforts to smother their rightful emergence on the global stage.
No outsiders can peer inside the black box where Chinese policies are made. But rumors abound that Beijing’s leadership decided in the last year that the United States’ faltering after the 2008 economic crisis had handed Beijing an opportunity to seize the global initiative.
“They feel the ball is at their feet,” one well-connected Chinese political analyst, who did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said in an interview. “The economic crisis was the main thing. China could really say ‘no’ to the U.S.”
By comparison, he said, Washington has little leverage over Chinese policies.
There are doubtless other factors at work. China’s domestic Internet is being bombarded by ardent nationalists whose sheer volume of comments may sway official policy. The government faces a difficult succession in 2012 — one in which the safe route for every contender for power is to hew to solidly pro-China ideology.
Nor are Americans ready to accept a world in which their top-dog status is at considerable risk.
“A lot of America hasn’t caught up with the fact that China now can say no more often,” said Russell Leigh Moses, a Beijing-based analyst of China’s leadership. “When you’ve got a 6-year-old and he throws a whiffle ball against a window and it bounces off harmlessly, nobody thinks anything of it.
“But when he’s older, and he throws a hardball, you’ve got a broken window.”
The difficulty in connecting Mr. Obama and Mr. Hu is reminiscent of the last moment of deep tension between the two countries in early 2001, after a Chinese fighter collided with an American spy plane trailing just off the Chinese coast, sending the American plane and its crew into an emergency landing on Chinese soil.
President George W. Bush spent more than a week trying to get his counterpart, Jiang Zemin, on the phone. The Chinese — clearly trying to sort out how to handle the crisis — declined to take the call until their internal debate was over. The American crew was eventually returned; the Chinese sent the plane back in a box, after disassembling and inspecting every component.
Several current and former American officials, as well as foreign diplomats, say they suspect that this time, the Chinese leadership is still debating how to balance its interest in propping up North Korea with their interest in preventing more incidents or another nuclear test, which would be North Korea’s third.
But the outside world may never know, particularly after candid discussions about North Korea between American and Chinese officials have been revealed in WikiLeaks documents.
“The Chinese don’t like talking about this stuff,” one senior American official put it two weeks ago, after the North revealed its new nuclear site. “And they certainly don’t like talking about it over the phone.”
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Hilary is talking right now....
Not sounding very good for North Korea.
She is just out of a meeting. Stating the actions NK MUST take...
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Associated Press
US, Japan, and South Korea in united stance on North Korea
By ROBERT BURNS , 12.06.10, 04:53 PM EST
WASHINGTON -- In a show of unity, the U.S., Japan and South Korea on Monday said they would not resume nuclear negotiations with North Korea until it stops its "provocative and belligerent" behavior and takes concrete steps to roll back its nuclear arms program.
"They need to demonstrate a seriousness of purpose in ending their provocations and let the world know they are now ready to come to the table and fulfill the commitments they have already made," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told reporters after meeting Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara and South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung Hwan.
The meeting was intended to demonstrate a serious response to recent North Korean actions, including its deadly shelling of a South Korean island last month and its announced expansion of a uranium enrichment capability that the U.S. and others see as a defiant and dangerous step.
"All agree that North Korea's provocative and belligerent behavior jeopardizes peace and stability in Asia," Clinton said.
Clinton and her counterparts also used a news conference at the State Department to call on China to do more to steer North Korea toward a more moderate path.
China, a traditional supporter of North Korea, has called for an emergency session of the so-called six-party talks - with the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Russia and China in negotiations with North Korea.
But Clinton made clear that Washington, Tokyo and Seoul view a resumption of talks as tantamount to rewarding North Korea for behaving badly.
"North Korea first needs to take concrete steps to demonstrate a change of behavior," Clinton said.
In a joint written statement, the three officials condemned North Korea's construction of a new uranium enrichment facility. They said it violates U.N. Security Council resolutions as well as the North's commitments in a September 2005 agreement with the other parties to the six-party talks.
"Resumption of the six-party talks will require the (North) to make sincere efforts to improve relations with the (South) as well as taking concrete steps to demonstrate a genuine commitment to complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization," the U.S.-Japan-South Korea statement said.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Rick, maybe you can undestand what these number mean:
You can find this on the official military site by googling "status of the navy".
Date ......ships underway .....attack subs underway
Nov30 .............. 45% ................ 46%
Dec01 .............. 51% ................ 46%
Dec02 .............. 52% ................ 46%
Dec03 .............. 53% ................ 46%
Dec06 .............. 55% ................ 63%
That is quite a big change over the weekend!
What do you think?
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Updates from VOA Reporter Steve Herman
US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff en route to Seoul - http://is.gd/ij0BM #Koreas about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck
US Sect'y of State Clinton meeting w- ROK, Japan foreign ministers to discuss #DPRK. #Koreas about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck
Sect'y of State Clinton tells Japan, S. Korea counterparts that China has special role in ending N. Korean provocations. #Koreas about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck
On if Obama-Hu call linked to timing of trilat talks WH spokesman says "don't think I want to get any further than what was in the readout." about 4 hours ago via TweetDeck
US, ROK, Japan in joint statement strongly condemn Nov. 23 #DPRK shelling. #Koreas about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
Trilat statement affirms DPRK’s "provocative & belligerent behavior threatens all 3 countries & will be met with solidarity..." about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
Ministers look forward to further enhancing cooperation with China & Russia, in particular within the 6-Party Talks framework... #Koreas about 3 hours ago via TweetDeck
Sobering Korea Times editorial today: "Another all-out fratricidal war here is feared to destroy almost the entire Korean Peninsula." about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
JoongAng quotes #ROK intel sources: New #DPRK midget subs equipped with torpedo launch tubes suggesting more planned attacks. about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
Sec. Def. Gates, answering sailor's question about #DPRK aboard USS Abe Lincoln, "I don't think it's likely you'll make a detour there." about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck
Sec. Def. Gates on USS Abe Lincoln re #DPRK: "I think this is a difficult & potentially dangerous time." about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck
Gates told US Navy sailors that we need to work with Chinese for greater stability re #DPRK. "Nobody wants a war on the Korean peninsula." about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck
http://twitter.com/w7voa
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
We Will Take Out Seoul!
By Yoo Gwan Hee
[2010-12-07 14:35]
The North Korean authorities have used recent people’s unit lectures to reveal news of South Korean maritime live fire exercises and threaten, “If even a single South Chosun shell falls on our territory, we will take Seoul out.”
This lecture relates to South Korean military exercises at 29 locations on its three coasts from December 6th to 12th.
A source from North Hamkyung Province reported to The Daily NK today, “In a people’s unit meeting held in a neighborhood of Hoiryeong on the evening of the 5th, the chairwoman of the unit explained the situation, then said, ‘In implementing live fire training from the 6th, South Chosun is making an open attempt to attack our republic once again, but supposing just one of the puppet’s bombs falls on our territory, we will take Seoul out.”
“The reason why our People’s Army attacked the South Chosun artillery base was because the South Chosun puppet military provoked us first across the West Sea Military Demarcation Line,” she went on, before asserting, “The self-defensive measures of our People’s Army were a fair reaction.”
The chairwoman further added, “Even though South Chosun’s Lee Myung Bak told Obama of the U.S., ‘we are going to war, so help us,’ even Obama dealt with South Chosun sarcastically, saying ‘didn’t it happen because you irritated them first?’”
“South Chosun now faces a troubled situation since they started the firing,” she said, before reiterating, “It is the resolve of our People’s Army, following the General, to take Seoul out if South Chosun does not suspend its military training.”
At the end of the meeting, she emphasized, “Since the current situation is extremely tense, you have to live lives appropriate to that tension.”
Meanwhile, Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Sunday, “The U.S. and its puppets should not act blindly and celebrate the kind of devastating aftermath that will be brought about by their provocative military maneuvers.”
This series of actions by the North Korean authorities are aimed at reinforcing internal solidarity by raising a warlike atmosphere. Especially when the North seems weak in relation to South Korea, Pyongyang fears this could cause societal weakness to spread.
The source reported the atmosphere of the people accordingly, saying, “The people in the meeting of the people’s unit seemed to be quite shocked because the situation has grown unsettled recently.”
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
US military commander to visit Seoul
Tue Dec 7, 2010 10:14AM
http://previous.presstv.ir/photo/201...7085057780.jpg
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen
US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen is to visit South Korea to discuss the crisis on the Korean Peninsula with the country's officials.
The top US military commander is scheduled to hold talks with his South Korean counterpart General Han Min Koo on Wednesday amid growing tensions over North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island last month, the South Korean Yonhap news agency reported.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said on Monday in Washington that Mullen is "to enhance coordination on strategic deterrence" during his visit.
The announcement for the visit came as South Korea launched major live-fire military drills on Monday in the Yellow Sea. The drills are scheduled to take place off all three coasts of the Korean Peninsula until Friday.
The exercise was launched in the wake of North Korea's bombardment of the South's Yeonpyeong Island on November 23, which killed two soldiers and two civilians.
The North called the drills an effort to trigger a war and warned the South against holding more joint military exercises with Washington.
The North has warned that the situation is reaching an uncontrollably extreme level. It says a war between the two Koreas will seriously affect peace and security not only on the Korean Peninsula but in the entire region.
Pyongyang accuses US President Barack Obama of plotting with regional allies to topple the country's government, insisting that its nuclear program is a deterrent against US forces in the region.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Seoul 'Blew Chance to Stop N.Korean Provocations'
Military experts say South Korea missed a chance to break the vicious cycle of ever bolder North Korean provocations and meek responses from the South. They say it is a pity South Korea's F-15K fighter jets took no action after they were scrambled in response to the North Korean artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island on Nov. 23.
Kim Hee-sang, a retired Army lieutenant general and chief of the Korea Institute for National Security Affairs, said, "At the time, the North's Mig-23 fighters took off, but they are no match for F-15Ks. If an aerial dogfight had broken out, the North would have suffered a crushing defeat and we could have delivered a clear message that they must pay the price for a provocation."
Some people are worried that an all-out war might break out. But the North is as afraid of a full war as we are," he added. Kim was presidential secretary for defense affairs in the Roh Tae-woo government and defense advisor to president Roh Moo-hyun.
The military gave up on ordering the fighters to strafe North Korean artillery positions due to the UN Command-set rules of engagement stipulating that a response to an attack should be carried out with "equivalent" weapons. But many suspect the real reason was that top military brass got cold feet.
Experts cite historical examples to stress that fear of escalation would only help escalate a war. "We have no choice but to keep suffering if we're worried about escalation whenever the North ratchets up the level of provocation," said a researcher at a government-funded think tank on condition of anonymity. "What would we do if the North fires one or two shells from a long-range howitzer at Seoul and says that it fired them by accident?"
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...20700929_0.jpg
National Assembly Speaker Park Hee-tae (center) and lawmakers on the Defense Committee are briefed at an Army unit in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province on Monday.
Instead experts are stressing the need to break the vicious cycle of North Korean provocations and South Korean warnings that prove empty words, which in turn encourages the North to raise the ante.
In May, when it was confirmed that the Navy corvette Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo attack in March, the government pledged to immediately resume psychological warfare against the North by restarting propaganda broadcasts and sending propaganda leaflets.
But it kept delaying the broadcasts along the demarcation line after the North threatened to fire at the loudspeakers. In a climb-down, the government then made a fresh pledge to resume propaganda broadcasts if the North provokes again.
The military had also pledged to fire back across the Northern Limit Line, the de-facto maritime border, if the North fires shells across. But when the North lobbed shells into waters south of the NLL in the direction of Baeknyeong Island for the first time in August, the South did not keep its word, encouraging the Nov. 23 attack on South Korean territory.
Moon Sung-mook, a former deputy director of arms control at the Defense Ministry, said, "The North is always aiming for our weak spot, so it's difficult to speculate what bargaining chip it will use next." He also said it is a pity the South missed the opportunity to punish the North all for its latest provocation. "The North fired shells indiscriminately at innocent civilians on Yeonpyeong Island. If we'd retaliated immediately after we were attacked, nobody in the international community would have found fault with us and we could have made the North give up thinking of launching any more provocations."
Some experts are calling for an overhaul of military rules so field commanders are allowed to make their own judgment and respond immediately to any obvious provocation by the North instead of waiting for Cheong Wa Dae's political decision. They also urged the government to work out a strong response policy.
"It can sometimes happen that presidential instructions conflict with a field commander's judgment," said Yoon Yeon, a former commander of Naval Operations. "But the commanding officers should exercise their rights guaranteed by the rules of engagement and operations manuals." He added occasional war games are needed to prevent the president and military leaders from coming into conflict or misunderstanding each other.
englishnews@chosun.com / Dec. 07, 2010 12:23 KST
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BRVoice
Rick, maybe you can undestand what these number mean:
You can find this on the official military site by googling "status of the navy".
Date ......ships underway .....attack subs underway
Nov30 .............. 45% ................ 46%
Dec01 .............. 51% ................ 46%
Dec02 .............. 52% ................ 46%
Dec03 .............. 53% ................ 46%
Dec06 .............. 55% ................ 63%
That is quite a big change over the weekend!
What do you think?
I'd only be guessing.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Quote:
The military gave up on ordering the fighters to strafe North Korean artillery positions due to the UN Command-set rules of engagement stipulating that a response to an attack should be carried out with "equivalent" weapons. But many suspect the real reason was that top military brass got cold feet.
This is the nonsense that has everyone's hands tied in the West.
1) Listening to the UN never gets you anywhere.
2) Not stomping the crap out of someone who gives you a bloody nose makes them give you a second, and yet a third bloody nose.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rick Donaldson
This is the nonsense that has everyone's hands tied in the West.
1) Listening to the UN never gets you anywhere.
2) Not stomping the crap out of someone who gives you a bloody nose makes them give you a second, and yet a third bloody nose.
:toast:
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
China hits back at criticism over North Korea
Sui-Lee Wee and Jeremy Laurence, Reuters
December 8, 2010, 3:16 am
BEIJING/ SEOUL (Reuters) - China on Tuesday hit back at the United States and its Asian allies for their refusal to talk to North Korea, saying dialogue was the only way to calm escalating tension on the divided Korean peninsula.
China took a more belligerent tone a day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hosted her South Korean and Japanese counterparts in Washington, calling a report that it was shielding Pyongyang's nuclear program an "irresponsible accusation."
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg will lead a U.S. delegation to China in the next week to try to persuade Beijing to put more pressure on Pyongyang despite Chinese fears that this may destabilise North Korea, a U.S. official said.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have been lukewarm towards Beijing's proposal for emergency talks between the six regional powers, worried they could be perceived as rewarding Pyongyang for its deadly attack on a South Korean island two weeks ago.
They want China to bring its ally North Korea to heel and hope that through their joint calls Beijing -- which has traditionally resisted outside pressure on its policies -- may be persuaded to act.
"The responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia should be shouldered by all parties in the region," China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a regular news conference.
"All parties are stakeholders. We call on the parties to positively respond to our proposals to resolve the conflict through dialogue and negotiation."
"We need a clear indication from North Korea that it understands that this pattern of provoking and then hoping that people will reward it to stop the provocations is not one that we are going to sanction," Steinberg, Clinton's principal deputy, said on Tuesday.
China, the North's main ally and host of stalled six-party talks with North Korea, has been trying hard to take a neutral line in the dispute.
It was not invited to Monday's trilateral meeting in Washington which put the onus on Beijing to take action.
NUCLEAR TALKS
Clinton said she was open to resuming talks on the North's nuclear ambitions -- the six-party talks include the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States -- but Pyongyang must first take steps to end its belligerence and keep its 2005 commitment to abandon its nuclear programs.
"I think the fact that it took Hu and Obama 13 days even to talk about the attack shows what little chance there is of any real agreement," said Brian Myers, an expert on the North's ideology at Dongseo University.
"I agree with the South Korean consensus that the Chinese are simply trying to look like they're doing something for peace, without having to offend the North."
Analysts say Pyongyang will likely carry out more provocations following last month's attack and its latest revelations of nuclear advances for two reasons: to cement a father-to-son leadership transition and to win concessions at any international talks.
"The bottom line: North Korea isn't going to change is behaviour any time soon, and the United States, South Korea and the world will have to live with this reality," said Andrew Scobell, a North Korea expert at the U.S. Army War College.
Analysts say that China is reluctant to lean too hard on the North in the midst of a leadership transition, for fear of a collapse that could spark an exodus of refugees and allow U.S. troops in South Korea right up to the Chinese border.
"China is in a deepening dilemma: how to struggle with the balance between maintaining ties with Pyongyang and maintaining cooperation with Washington," said Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Peking University.
"Maybe Beijing may be more motivated now to wake up to a new reality."
LIMITS TO POWER
But the United States also faces limits to the pressure it can apply on China to act. The two countries are enmeshed in a complicated economic relationship, with Washington looking to Beijing to help pull the global economy out of its slump.
"We hope that in increasing domestic consumption, China can become a catalyst for growth," Steinberg said in his speech, noting that better balanced U.S.-China economic ties would benefit both countries.
Analysts say Beijing's relationship with Pyongyang provides a valuable communication bridge, but consider China's influence over the North's as limited.
"China is not in control of North Korea. Most emphatically, it is not. It cannot do much, even if it wishes," said Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul.
Meanwhile, as South Korea staged live-fire drills around the country, Obama sent his top military officer Admiral Mike Mullen's to Seoul.
South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak said he wants to turn the island that was attacked last month, as well as four others nearby, into "military fortresses" and called for improved living conditions to encourage civilians to return.
Lee's comments came as worries grow that many of the residents of Yeonpyeong and the other islands west of North Korea will not return as the North increasingly resorts to violence to reassert its claim over the area.
(Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed, Andrew Quinn and Jeff Mason in Washington; and Michael Martina and Sui-Lee Wee in Beijing; Editing by David Chance and David Storey)
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
New posture goes beyond rules of engagement
December 8, 2010
Korea JoongAng Daily
The South Korean military will exercise self-defense based on an “act first, report later” principle, as ordered by Minister of National Defense Kim Kwan-jin during a meeting to discuss measures to improve the military after the Yeonpyeong Island attack.
The new battle principles were announced at a large-scale meeting headed by the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which was attended by roughly 150 military commanders of the Army, Navy and Air Force yesterday in Seoul.
“This is the first security crisis since the Korean War,” said Minister Kim at the meeting. “We must prepare for additional provocations from the North. The people’s trust in the military, which has fallen, as well as military morale and discipline, should be put in order. And we must recover our readiness.”
The new policy will go beyond the current rules of engagement and not be bound by U.S. wartime control of South Korean forces, the minister said.
“The commanders of each military service will give orders for self-defense,” said Jang Gwang-il, head of defense policy at the ministry. “Self-defense will be exercised until the origin of the provocation is hit, and [the retaliation] will not be bound by the Korean War cease-fire agreement or rules of battle.” Jang said that the U.S. and South Korea had a mutual understanding on the issue.
Jang also called for the preparing of more troops for battle on the field. He also ordered higher-ranking officials to simplify orders for those lower on the chain of command to give them more leeway to act quickly and creatively in an emergency.
The defense minister pointed out several problems plaguing South Korea’s military: forgetting the Koreas are still technically at war, a casual attitude toward national defense and spending more time on paperwork than on combat preparation.
Meanwhile, U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a swift departure for Seoul yesterday local time, which U.S. military officials have said was unscheduled.
John Kirby, Mullen’s spokesman, said the decision to send Mullen was decided late last week. The trip, Kirby said, is intended to reaffirm the U.S.’s commitment to its alliance with South Korea.
The spokesman said that the hurried visit should not be interpreted as an “emergency trip,” although he characterized the situation on the Korean Peninsula as being “tense.”
Mullen is scheduled to meet with South Korea’s chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Han Min-koo, as well as other government officials.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday that Mullen will go to Tokyo after his trip to Seoul and that he would be leading a delegation to “enhance coordination on strategic deterrents.” Clinton added that another delegation of high-ranking officials would visit South Korea next week to continue negotiations on various levels.
South Korea started firing exercises on its surrounding waters Monday, including the west coast, where North Korea bombarded a South Korean island last month.
By Christine Kim [christine.kim@joongang.co.kr]
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
North Korea will certainly escalate just to see if the South will actually respond now.
Quote:
Meanwhile, U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a swift departure for Seoul yesterday local time, which U.S. military officials have said was unscheduled.
Now, that's interesting. Left swiftly... with no real reason behind it (that was made public).
That with the sudden increase in subs moving out..... that's a very, very interesting development.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
U.S. shares 'common ground' on S. Korea's right to self-defense: official
SEOUL, Dec. 7 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States share "common ground" on Seoul exercising the right of self-defense in case of future attacks by North Korea, and the two countries will also discuss changing the rules of engagement, a senior military official here said Tuesday.
The coordination between the allies effectively paves the way for South Korea to quickly and more strongly respond to North Korean attacks with force without being controlled by the rules of engagement, which are jointly governed by U.S. forces stationed in the South, Deputy Defense Minister Chang Kwang-il told reporters.
"South Korea and the U.S. share common ground on the matter of invoking our right of self-defense," Chang told reporters. "We also plan to hold working-level talks with the U.S. side to modify the rules of engagement."
Reeling from North Korea's artillery assault on a South Korean island on Nov. 23, which killed four people, South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin had ordered his military to invoke the right of self-defense should the nation come under another attack by Pyongyang.
Kim has said the right of self-defense will be applied separately from the rules of engagement, which focus on preventing an escalation into a greater conflict, to allow the military to respond faster and with more muscle.
Under the right of self-defense, Kim said, South Korea will "definitely" use air strikes if attacked by the North.
Some critics, however, have raised doubts over Kim's directive, citing a possible conflict between the right of self-defense and the rules of engagement.
Currently, the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) supervises the armistice agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War. The top U.S. commander of some 28,500 American troops stationed in the South has the wartime command authority.
Based on "necessity and proportional principles," the rules of engagement prevent the South Korean military from attacking unless there is an absolute need, and bind military response to a corresponding degree of the attack by an enemy.
Earlier in the day, the defense minister convened a meeting of some 150 commanders and renewed his vows of tougher retaliation against future strikes by the North.
"At the meeting, Defense Minister Kim ordered commanders to retaliate forcefully until the root of the threat is eliminated by exercising the right of self-defense," Chang told reporters.
Commanders in the field will be allowed to "act first and report later," he said.
At the meeting, the defense minister pressed the nation's military to improve its effectiveness.
"The military should boldly transform itself from an administrative military to combat-ready armed forces," Chang quoted the minister as saying.
The military is under fierce criticism for being too feeble in responding to the North's shelling on Yeonpyeong Island. There was a 13-minute lapse before the first counter-fire, and there are doubts over whether the South's artillery hit targets in the North.
The North's strike on Yeonpyeong, which also left 18 people injured and dozens of homes destroyed, marked the first attack by North Korea on a civilian area in the South's territory since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
Pyongyang has yet to take responsibility for the March sinking of South Korean warship, the Cheonan, that killed 46 sailors.
Gen. Han Min-koo, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said the military is in "the most difficult situation" since the Korean War following the North's shelling on Yeonpyeong and the ship sinking.
"We must build a stronger military force that can fight and win under any circumstances," Han told the commanders.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
South Korea, U.S. to hold high-level military talks on North Korea
SEOUL, Dec. 7 (Yonhap) -- Top military officers from South Korea and the United States will hold talks in Seoul this week to discuss heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula triggered by North Korea's deadly artillery attack on a South Korean island, officials said Tuesday.
Gen. Han Min-koo, chairman of the South's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), will meet his U.S. counterpart Adm. Mike Mullen in Seoul on Wednesday along with other senior military officials from the allies, the JCS said in a statement.
The two sides "plan to assess an intention of North Korean provocations and measures to deter further provocations through close cooperation," the statement said. Mullen also plans to meet South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, officials said.
Military tensions on the peninsula have spiked to their highest level in decades since the North's bombardment on an inhabited South Korean island on Nov. 23.
The brazen shelling on Yeonpyeong Island left four people, including two civilians, dead, marking the first attack by North Korea on a civilian area in the South's territory since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
In the latest show of military solidarity, Mullen is due to arrive in Seoul with senior officials, including Lt. Gen. Charles Jacoby, director of the strategic plans and policy section on the U.S. Joint Staff, and others from the State Department and the U.S. Pacific Command.
"The purpose of Mr. Mullen's visit is to demonstrate our solidarity and reassure that we stand side by side with the Republic of Korea," said Jonathan Withington, chief spokesman at the U.S. Forces Korea.
About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea, a legacy of the Korean War that ended with a cease-fire, leaving the Korean Peninsula still technically at war.
Shortly after the North's attack on Yeonpyeong, South Korea and the U.S. held four days of large-scale joint naval drills off the peninsula's west coast with a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier participating.
South Korea is also in the midst of nationwide naval firing drills off all three coasts, despite the North's warnings of war.
Wednesday's talks between Han and Mullen are expected to touch on the issue of modifying rules of engagement against future attacks by North Korea, a source from the South Korean military said.
In the wake of the North's shelling, South Korean officials said they would make rules of engagement more aggressive, allowing their military to quickly and strongly respond with force. Any change in the battle manuals is subject to consultations with U.S. forces in South Korea.
South Korean Defense Minister Kim has said he will use fighter jets to bomb North Korea if the unpredictable communist regime repeats an attack like the Nov. 23 shelling.
"The two sides are likely to discuss the issue of approving an air raid when North Korea attacks our territory," the source said on condition of anonymity.
Mullen's visit comes after top diplomats from South Korea, the U.S. and Japan met in Washington on Monday and urged that China should play more of a role to rein in North Korea's belligerence.
Other than a joint statement calling for China's cooperation, however, the diplomats yielded little tangible action for diplomatic efforts to change the North's behavior.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
Military Drill Started on Day of Yeonpyeong Shelling
By Kang Mi Jin
[2010-11-30 01:21]
On the morning of the day when the North Korean military attacked Yeonpyeong Island, there was an emergency call up of Local Reserve Forces and Worker and Peasant Red Guard, a military exercise that lasted until the 25th.
According to a Daily NK source, the exercise, which was aimed at checking battle preparations and methods of establishing strongholds, was carried out in a state of tension.
The source said that Local Reserve Forces and Worker and Peasant Red Guard were instructed to prepare dry grains to last three days, a gas mask and lespedeza branches, which do not create smoke, for cooking.
According to the source, the Union of Democratic Women and people’s units have also held lectures regarding the Yeonpyeong attack since it occurred, in which the authorities have claimed, “In accordance with the South’s attack, we implemented a counter-attack.” There have also been night time blackouts.
The source also reported that around the day when the Yeonpyeong attack occurred, regulations in border regions between China and the North were strengthened.
These moves and the atmosphere in North Korea make it appear that the attack on Yeonpyeong Island was premeditated.
Ordinary people, however, are unmoved, according to the source, just pointing out, “War did not occur, they just bother people,” or asking, “We have no electricity, so why are we having blackouts?”
To me, it's the beginning of something bigger.
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Re: North And South Korea On The Brink Of War, Russian Diplomat Warns
North Korean Knowledge of Yeonpyeong Revealed in Full
By Mok Yong Jae
[2010-12-07 17:46]
The four main radio broadcasters targeting North Korea, Free North Korea Radio, Open Radio for North Korea, North Korea Reform Radio and Radio Free Chosun, yesterday disclosed an actual audio clip of a phone conversation between a North Korean citizen and a reporter working in the border area of China.
The four were holding a joint press conference to denounce North Korea's attack on Yeonpyeong Island and promote private broadcasting towards North Korea.
Apparently, some areas of North Korea had not had power for three days at the time of the Yeonpyeong Island attack. Therefore, most people were not aware of the bombardment, while those who were aware believed that the battle was begun by South Korea.
In the words of the resident whose voice can be heard in the November 30th recording, "Chosun Central TV said that they (South Korea) took the first action; we also believe that."
When the caller asked for the truth, the North Korean laughed, answering with the measured tone of someone who needs to watch their words, "Naturally I think so. It is not only me; everyone else thinks so as well."
However, an ethnic Korean living in China, speaking on November 25th, took a different view, saying, "North Korea is always attacking first. Everyone in Dandong knows about Yeonpyeong Island.” Nevertheless, the person noted, “Of course North Korean people won’t say that North Korea took the first shot. They will always say that North Korea fired since South Korea attacked first."
When asked what impact military conflict would have on North Korea's succession, he answered, "(North Korea) has only shells and bullets, right? If they try something else, the world will neither recognize nor be interested in it. This action must have been taken since the international community will only pay attention when there is a battle such as this navel conflict."
The four private broadcasters joined forces to urge support for their efforts to democratize North Korea at the end of press conference.
Kim Seung Cheol, the president of North Korea Reform Radio revealed a statement, which read, "That Kim Jong Il and his son dare to employ the lives and security of South Korean people as a method of maintaining their dictatorship is down to the inappropriate countermeasure of the South Korean government and citizens to Kim Jong Il's Military-first dictatorship.”
Therefore, it went on, “The South Korean government and people must create North Korea policy based on a good understanding of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Eun, and increase the sense of national security."
"If private broadcasts to North Korea could transmit from South Korea rather than third countries, we could urge change in North Korea more strongly,” it added. “We would like to ask South Korea not to spare their active support and cooperation for private broadcasts to North Korea."
Kim Myung Jin of Open Radio for North Korea demonstrates how North Korea controls the media. In the case of radios, the authorities disassemble the product and completely remove the parts which allow for changing the channel. In the case of analogue televisions, they remove the tuner which can change the channel and then seal it. In the case of digital equipment, they confiscate the remote control and seal the channel in place.
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Translated transcript of conversation with North Korean citizen on November 30th
Q. How much did the rice price rise?
A. It was 900 won but now it has increased by 100 won to 1,000 won.
Q. What are you aware about Kim Jong Eun from television?
A. Nothing.
Q. There is nothing?
A. Yes.
Q. Is there South Korean rice in the North Korean market?
A. No.
Q. I heard the training of Local Reserve Force has begun. Is it true? When?
A. It starts tomorrow, December 1st.
Q. Is there any training, for example air raid drills?
A. No.
Q. What does North Korean television describe about the provocation on Yeonpyeong Island?
A. Chosun Central TV said that they (South Korea) took the first action; we also believe that..
Q. So, North Korea only responded to South Korea's initial attack?
A. Yes.
Q. What is your opinion on that?
A. I also believe it.
Q. You also believe that?
A (laughing). Naturally, I think so. It is not only me; everyone else thinks so as well.
Q. How about the damage?
A. No. I heard that North Korea did not get damaged.
Q. Yes, hello?
A. Yes. How are you doing?
Q. The day before yesterday, a shell dropped on Yeonpyeong Island. Are you aware of this?
A. Of course, everyone in Dandong knows about it.
Q. How about those inside (meaning North Korea)?
A. Of course people in North Korea don’t know. They do not know about the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island; they only know that shells were fired between South and North Korea.
Q. So, you mean they are only aware that shells were fired between the two Koreas?
A. They are aware that there was a naval battle two days ago but not that Yeonpyeong Island was shelled.
Q. So, to clarify, North Korean citizens are not aware of who took the first shot, only that they were shot at? They do not know that North Korea took the first shot?
A. Yes. They are North Korean; obviously they would not say North Korea took the first shot. North Koreans just claim that they took their shot because South Korea challenged them first, that they only responded exactly in kind to South Korea's firing.
Q. What is the response of North Korean citizens to the naval bombardment?
A. Ethnic North Koreans in China and their acquaintances are fully aware of the truth. North Korea always challenges first.
Q. How about North Koreans? Are they aware of it?
A. They are not. They are North Korean, and they believe that a war has to take place for unification.
Q. Marine Corps soldiers and civilians were killed during the incident, and especially there are a lot of comments about the deaths of civilians.
A. Yes, yes. We are well aware of the fact, but obviously North Koreans do not know about it. They will have to find out through us. When we pass the customs office and comment, "South Korean citizens were killed by North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island," then they will know.
Q. Really? So they learn about things through the customs office or from traders?
A. Of course! Traders tell them about things, and also when North Koreans come out they secretly watch South Korean broadcasts.
Q. Well, the Kim Jong Eun succession system is really happening. Will the conflict with South Korea be beneficial to that?
A. Yes, you could see it that way. One side is living in poorer conditions and facing difficulties surviving. The only thing which Kim Jong Eun can do is wage war. (North Korea) has only shells and bullets. If they try something else, the world will neither recognize nor be interested in it. This action must have been taken since the international community will only pay attention when there is a battle such as this navel conflict.
Q. From the North Korean people’s perspective, do they believe that reviving the economy by opening up is more appropriate than shelling?
A. North Koreans know little, they simply know that the conflict took place. They are completely unaware of themselves or the international community.