Syria will fall... soon.
24 hours.
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Syria will fall... soon.
24 hours.
July 18, 2012 2:30 PM
http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/201...th_620x350.jpg Syria peace mediator Kofi Annan, left, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in central Moscow July 17, 2012. (AFP/Getty Images)
The Arab Spring
(CBS/AP) UNITED NATIONS - The U.N. Security Council delayed a vote on a new Syria resolution until Thursday in a last-minute effort to get key Western nations and Russia to agree on measures to end the dramatically escalating violence.
International envoy Kofi Annan urged the deeply divided council to postpone Wednesday's scheduled vote after a bombing in the heart of Syria's capital killed three top regime members, including the powerful brother-in-law of President Bashar Assad and the defense minister.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who was visiting China, urged the Security Council to "take collective action, with a sense of unity."
Ambassadors from the five veto-wielding permanent council nations — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France — met behind closed doors Wednesday morning to discuss Annan's request. Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told reporters afterwards that the vote had been postponed by a day, CBS News foreign affairs analyst Pamela Falk reports.
The key stumbling block to an agreement on a Syria plan is the Western demand for a resolution threatening non-military sanctions. It is tied to Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter, which could eventually allow the use of force to end the conflict.
Russia, a close Syria ally, is adamantly opposed to sanctions and any mention of Chapter 7. Although Western nations appear to have little appetite for force, Russia fears a repeat of the NATO campaign in Libya.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed to Wednesday's deadly bombing and accused the West of inciting the Syrian opposition, arguing that a proposed U.N. resolution amounted to support for the rebels and would lead to more bloodshed.
Supporting the Syrian opposition "is a dead-end policy, because Assad is not leaving voluntarily," Lavrov was quoted as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.
U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said Wednesday's closed-door meeting by the five veto-wielding permanent council nations yielded no new proposals from Russia. France's U.N. Ambassador Gerard Araud expressed hope the Russians would come up with something new, but said he wasn't optimistic about Thursday's vote.
The mandate of the 300-strong U.N. observer force in Syria expires on Friday, and the Security Council must decide by then whether to extend it.
The U.S. and its European allies contend that the unarmed observers were authorized for 90 days to monitor a cease-fire and implementation of Annan's six-point peace plan — and with violence escalating dramatically, they insist that there must be consequences for non-compliance.
Britain's foreign secretary insisted that the bombing in Damascus underscored the urgent need for a Chapter 7 resolution.
"The situation in Syria is clearly deteriorating. All the members of the U.N. Security Council have a responsibility to put their weight behind the enforcement of ... Annan's plan to end the violence," William Hague said in a statement.
White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said it's clear that Assad is losing control of his country.
"There is real momentum against Assad, with increasing defections, and a strengthened and more united opposition that is operating across the country," Vietor said, adding, "With the Assad regime losing control, it's time for the Syrian people and the international community to focus on what comes next. We are working urgently with our international partners to push for a political transition in Syria."
British Defense Minister Philip Hammond suggested that Russia and China hold the key to a peaceful solution because of their support for Assad.
"If those powers are sending clear messages about the limits of their tolerance for the activities of the regime, that will be an effective constraint on the activities of the regime," Hammond said at a Pentagon press conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.
Panetta said "it is more essential than ever" that the U.S. and the international community work through the U.N. to bring pressure on Assad to step down.
There has been a lot of diplomatic scrambling to try to get council unity, which would send a much stronger signal to Syria.
A draft resolution supported by the Western powers would impose non-military sanctions against Assad's regime if it fails to withdraw troops and heavy weapons from populated areas within 10 days — a key demand of the Annan plan. Moscow's rival proposal calls for the "immediate implementation" of Annan's plan and guidelines for a political transition approved at a meeting in Geneva last month, but makes no mention of sanctions.
Russia and China have incurred international criticism by twice vetoing U.N. resolutions to increase pressure on Assad.
A commentary that ran Tuesday in the official People's Daily newspaper strongly opposed using force against Syria — a sign that China may again block the Western-backed resolution. It said "a political solution is the only way out of the Syrian problem."
Assad is missing.
Russians are freaking out about now....
A look at the 3 Syrian officials killed in bombing
Posted: Jul 18, 2012 9:26 AM MDT Updated: Jul 18, 2012 10:37 AM MDT
By The Associated Press
The blast that ripped through a high-level security meeting in the Syrian capital of Damascus on Wednesday killed three senior officials in President Bashar Assad's regime. Here's a brief look at those killed:
- GEN. DAWOUD RAJHA
Took over as defense minister last August after his predecessor stepped down because of reputed health problems. Before taking up the post, Rajah, who was in his mid-60s, served as army chief of staff. He was the most senior Christian official in the Syrian government and the highest-ranking official so far to be killed in the country's civil war.
- GEN. ASSEF SHAWKAT
The deputy defense minister, Shawkat became Bashar Assad's brother-in-law after marrying the president's older sister, Bushra, in the mid-1990s. He quickly moved up the ranks after the marriage, becoming a trusted aide to Assad and one of the most feared members of the regime's inner circle. In 2005, an inadvertently released passage of a U.N. investigative report cited a witness saying Assad's brother, Maher, and Shawkat, who was head of military intelligence at the time, were among those behind the assassination of then-prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon.
- GEN. HASSAN TURKMANI
A former defense minister, Turkmani until his death was serving as an assistant to the country's vice president. In his mid-70s, Turkmani was close to the regime and took part in the crackdown against the uprising. Shortly after the revolt began in March last year, Assad sent Turkmani to Turkey for talks with officials there.
U.S. Says Syria Will be "Held Accountable" for Chemical Arms Security
July 18, 2012
http://www.nti.org/media/images/July...f?_=1342634415
An image, released on July 17 by an independent source, purported to show a Syrian tank in Damascus. The Obama administration warned the Syrian government repeatedly this week it is responsible for protection of its chemical warfare materials (AP Photo/Shaam News Network).
The Obama administration on Tuesday gave notice to the besieged Syrian regime that it must not let anything happen to its chemical weapons arsenal, Reuters reported (see GSN, July 17).
The Syrian government, according to U.S. and Israeli government sources, has been moving some chemical warfare agents out of their storage depots. It is not yet evident whether this is being done to better protect the materials or as a prelude to a chemical attack on regime foes.
Violence in the country has spread to Damascus -- the seat of power for the regime of President Bashar Assad. A suicide bombing in the Syrian capital on Wednesday was confirmed by state television to have killed Assad's defense minister and deputy defense minister.
Damascus has never affirmed possession of chemical warfare materials though it is widely understood to hold hundreds of tons of blister and nerve agents as well as ballistic missiles and artillery rounds capable of delivering them in attacks.
"There are certain responsibilities that go along with the handling and storage and security of those chemical weapons," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said to journalists on Air Force One. "We believe that the individuals who are responsible for living up to those challenges should do so and will be held accountable for doing so."
Earnest declined to share concrete details on U.S. data on Syrian chemical arms. He said, though, that President Obama and other heads of state were worried about the general "inhumane brutality" of the Assad regime in its attacks against the Syrian populace.
Certain experts believe Damascus could be relocating its chemical weapons to ensure they do not fall into the hands of rebels or extremist organizations, a scenario they say could provide justification for the United States and its allies to intervene in the country to prevent an international WMD proliferation crisis (Jeff Mason, Reuters I, July 17).
"We've made very clear to them that they have a responsibility to safeguard their chemical sites and that we will hold them responsible should anything happen with regards to those sites," Reuters quoted U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta as saying on Wednesday (see related GSN story, today). The Pentagon chief said Washington and allied governments were seeking collaboratively to address the matter.
"Our diplomacy has to focus on getting those who have the greatest influence with the regime to ensure that it acts responsibly in relations to chemical weapons," British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond said during a press appearance in Washington with Panetta. Hammond appeared to be addressing China and Russia, which have blocked U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed at punishing the Assad regime for its crackdown on opposition (Phil Stewart, Reuters II, July 18).
The Jordanian government on Tuesday announced it had taken steps to limit the chances of the nation facing a Syrian chemical strike, the Associated Press reported.
Washington and Amman have reportedly held talks in recent months on the situation and options for securing the Jordanian-Syrian border against feared weapons proliferation.
"The matter is of grave concern to us, and we have taken all necessary measures to confront that," Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh said without specifying what actions have been taken to guard against chemical attacks.
"We will not allow anything to threaten the internal security of the kingdom," Judeh said to journalists.
Assad's father, Hafez, in 1982 brutally put down an Islamist uprising in Hama. Unconfirmed reports indicate hydrogen cyanide gas might have been used in the military campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood.
"History repeats itself, and there is a good chance that Assad may do something foolish if he felt cornered and that his days are numbered," former Jordanian army Col. Khalil Rawahneh said in an interview with AP.
"We don't have the means to fend off a chemical attack, if Assad sent his missiles flying over densely populated areas," Rawahneh said.
He speculated that Assad's allies, Iran and Hezbollah, could "try to attack us with chemicals to defend Assad and prolong his days in power."
A Western envoy in Jordan said Amman has been "desperately shopping around" for missile defense technology that can be fielded close to its northern border, but that "no deal has been concluded yet" (Jamal Halaby, Associated Press/San Francisco Chronicle, July 17).
Syria is not a member state to the Chemical Weapons Convention and has never publicly declared possessing materials or munitions banned by the accord. That means the Hague, Netherlands-based body that oversees adherence to the pact has no authorization to conduct probes within the nation on possible chemical arms activities, according to an agency relesae issued on Wednesday.
Still, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons "is unreservedly concerned about the existence of chemical weapons of any sort and anywhere in the world thus it will continue to follow developments in Syria," the release states.
The organization noted that Damascus has ratified the 1925 Geneva Protocol, which prohibits use of biological and chemical agents in military conflict. "Thus, Syria has formally renounced both first and retaliatory use of chemical or biological weapons against any state," the release says.
Syria has never formally responded to OPCW inquiries in years past about joining the convention, the organization said. It added that "the OPCW remains available at all times to engage with the Syrian government and provide technical assistance for Syria to join the convention" (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons release, July 18).
'Decisive battle' taking place in Syria: Russia
PTI
Moscow, July 18, 2012
First Published: 21:00 IST(18/7/2012)
Last Updated: 21:02 IST(18/7/2012)
Russia on Wednesday said a decisive battle was in progress in Syria and rejected a Western-backed UN resolution on the crisis as it would mean taking sides with a revolutionary movement.
"A decisive battle is in progress in Syria. Adopting the resolution would mean outright
support of a revolutionary movement," foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in reference to the armed opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.
"And if we are talking about a revolution then the United Nations has nothing to do with it," Lavrov said on the sidelines of a Kremlin meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The UN Security Council is due to meet later on Wednesday to vote on a Western-backed resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter providing for sanctions against Damascus should it fail to withdraw military equipment from cities in 10 days.
The United States says it would only seek economic measures but Russia fears the West could later use other clauses under Chapter 7 that include the use of force should Assad fail to comply.
"We cannot accept Chapter 7 and the section about sanctions," Lavrov told reporters.
Referring to the West he added: "Instead of trying to calm the opposition, some partners are pushing towards a further escalation."
Asked by reporters if Syria was in civil war, Lavrov declined to use the term but said: "What do you think? There is an internal armed conflict, which means that well-armed citizens are fighting between themselves."
"This policy focused on the opposition is going nowhere. Assad himself is not going and the Western partners do not know what to do with this and therefore there is this emotional reaction."
Looks like I missed this one:
Russian Ship With Syrian Helicopters Embarks on Renewed Voyage
By ANDREW E. KRAMER
Published: July 12, 2012
MOSCOW — A Russian cargo ship carrying military helicopters and air-defense equipment for the Syria government, forced to turn back last month after Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton criticized the shipment and a British company revoked the vessel’s insurance, is again on the move.
The ship, the Alaed, which has emerged as something of a barometer of Russia’s intentions toward the government of President Bashar al-Assad, was reported heading south off Norway’s northern coast as of Thursday.
That location put the vessel close to a flotilla of four Russian naval vessels bound for the eastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Syria, as part of a Russian naval buildup in the area announced earlier this week, ostensibly for training exercises.
MarineTraffic.com, an Internet database that chronicles commercial shipping based on transponder signals required by the International Maritime Organization, registered the ship’s presence off the Norwegian coast on Thursday, though it had passed out of the range of the transponders in the North Atlantic by later in the day.
The Alaed’s reappearance on the open seas was first reported Thursday by the Barents Observer, a periodical published from the town of Kirkenes, near the northernmost point in Norway. Ships from Russia round the Scandinavian Peninsula near there, before heading south.
Embarrassingly last month for Russia, the Alaed, then CuraƧao-flagged, was forced to scrub its voyage when its British insurer canceled coverage. That came a few days after Ms. Clinton announced the Russians were sending attack helicopters to Syria, despite assurances by authorities in Moscow that they sold no weapons to Mr. Assad that would be useful in his government’s repression of the uprising against him.
Russia countered that the helicopters were not new but were refurbished models owned by Syria that had required servicing under a longstanding contract, so their return to Syria violated no United Nations sanctions. But Russia turned the ship around anyway.
The vessel docked in Murmansk on June 24 and was reflagged as a Russian vessel, presumably bypassing the insurance problem.
It was reported en route again weeks ago by Russian news agencies, though apparently incorrectly.
The Barents Observer, citing an online link to the ship’s own transponder, reported the Alaed was sailing in a commercial shipping lane heading west and then south near Norway.
The publication quoted a Norwegian maritime official saying the Alaed was heading in the same direction as the military vessels. Their positions are not reported to the civilian tracking system but were believed to be 50 to 100 nautical miles away from the Alaed.
Earlier this week, Russian officials had hinted at a role for the naval flotilla in safeguarding ships, though the rebuff to Ms. Clinton’s efforts to halt the Alaed was unclear until its position near Norway, near the warships, became public.
RIA Novosti, the Russian news agency, cited Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, the director of a military aide agency in the Russian government, as saying the fleet would “be sent on a task to guarantee the safety of our ships, to prevent anyone from interfering with them in the event of a blockade.”
The owner of the Alaed, the Femco shipping company, issued a statement on Wednesday making clear that the helicopters and air defense weapons were still aboard. The company presented the statement in the context of an analysis of the legality of sending such weaponry on a commercial vessel.
From my point of view here, it appears Pannetta is fairly concerned about the chemical weapons located in Syria.
I postulate part of the reason the Russians are so freaked out over this is that we will discover that the weapons there (WMD by the way) are from Sadam's regime and that originally they came from the Russians.
Hate to say it, but this will wake a lot of people up if that is true.
Syria: Death in Damascus
The simultaneous slaughter of three or perhaps four members of Assad's inner circle blows a hole in the heart of the government
It is 16 months since the Syrian uprising began, and one day's loss of life merges inexorably into another. But Wednesday was different, for two reasons. Fighting continued into its third day in the heart of Damascus, proving that the Free Syrian Army can now hold ground against forces which are superior in every way to them. And, for the first time, the conflict came up close and personal to Bashar al-Assad.
The attack that killed three or perhaps four members of his inner circle was not merely in the capital, it was within national security HQ – the stronghold within the stronghold. The death of any one of the assistant vice president, General Hassan Turkmani, the defence minister, General Dawoud Rajha, and the interior minister, Mohammad Shaar – whom some reports said was slain, and others injured – would have been a significant moment. Their simultaneous slaughter blows a hole in the heart of the government. Most significant of all, however, is the loss of Mr Rajha's deputy, Assef Shawkat. He is the architect of the crackdown, and – as the president's brother-in-law – he was woven into the Assad clan which has dominated Syria for four decades.
Replacement appointments were rapidly announced, a reminder – if one were needed – that a regime that retains a monopoly on air power and serious artillery is in no mood to run up the white flag; the dreadful truth for the Syrian people is that there is very likely a good deal more bloodletting to come. But not even the most ruthless new face from the regime can do much about several inconvenient truths. Before this past week, there were streets in Damascus where talk of horrors in Homs seemed like dispatches from another country. But after the International Committee of the Red Cross decreed Syria to be in civil war at the weekend, tanks were called out in Damascus on Monday, and – on top of the security HQ attack – there has been serious skirmishing and an unexplained blaze in the barracks that guards the presidential palace. If the trump card of the regime had always been to retain order in its heartlands, it is a trump card that events are conspiring to snatch away.
Even now, the regime retains some genuine support. Escalating sectarianism could see this harden among the Shia Alawite minority, from whom the Assads are drawn. Traditionally, however, they drew their strength from a broader coalition, taking in Kurds, Christians and indeed parts of the Sunni middle class. Recent defections have narrowed this base. Syria's Sunni ambassador to Baghdad, Nawaf al-Fares, jumped ship last week, just as Manaf Tlas – a general from the country's most powerful Sunni family – had the week before. Wednesday's killings narrow the ruling circle again: Gen Rajha was an orthodox Christian while Gen Turkmani was another in the rare breed of powerful Sunnis. As crowds openly cheered in Damascus, the regime's bloodcurdling threats of revenge only served to heighten the sense of a cornered clique.
The world of diplomacy has moved at a glacial pace throughout this crisis, having been several paces behind the unfolding tragedy at every stage. Buton Wednesday there were at least signs of an awareness that things could be reaching a critical pass. A planned UN security council vote on a western-sponsored resolution threatening tougher sanctions was postponed following a request by the UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, whose wise peace plan is being overtaken by events. After spending time with Vladimir Putin in Russia, he senses, perhaps, that Syria's traditional ally might now be more amenable to withholding its expected veto. There was no sign of that in Moscow's full-throated demand for the "terrorists" who had hit the regime to be brought to justice, but with so many military and trading links to protect, the cold, pragmatic judgment could eventually point to Russia cutting Assad loose. No one knows whether a tipping point has been reached, but the final act of this terrible tragedy could be coming much sooner than we thought only a few days ago.
China shows no support for UN Security Council action on Syria but condemns deadly bombing
(Andy Wong, Pool/ Associated Press ) - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, left, meets with Chinese President Hu Jintao at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China Wednesday, July 18, 2012.
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- http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/ima...JPEG-0c545.jpg
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/ima...JPEG-01f01.jpg
By Associated Press, Updated: Thursday, July 19, 7:37 AM
BEIJING — China showed no clear support for new U.N. Security Council measures aimed at ending Syria’s civil war, while saying Thursday it condemned the bombing that killed top Syrian officials and wanted an immediate cease-fire.
Russia already has indicated it would veto the proposed text, and fellow permanent Security Council member China has vetoed two past actions with Russia.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been visiting Beijing to convey to President Hu Jintao an urgent need for international action
.
The Chinese foreign ministry statement issued Thursday evening said China opposes all forms of terrorism and violence and that it “strongly” condemned the bombing Wednesday in Damascus that killed Syria’s defense minister and his deputy.
“China is deeply worried about the rising tensions in Syria,” the statement said. “China once again called on all related parties in Syria to cease fire immediately.”
The brief statement did not mention the Security Council vote but shows China has not changed its stance even as Syria’s violence has escalated and Western nations have urged tougher action against President Bashar Assad’s government.
The new Syria resolution threatens non-military sanctions against Assad’s regime if he doesn’t withdraw troops and heavy weapons from populated areas within 10 days. The text is tied to Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which could eventually allow the use of force to end the conflict.
Russia, a close Syrian ally, has said it will veto any Chapter 7 resolution.
Unlike Russia, China does not have longstanding strategic ties to Assad’s government, but Beijing opposes setting precedents that could potentially be applied to its troubled western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. China feels burned by Western intervention in Libya, believing that the U.S. and European powers over-interpreted a U.N. resolution to attack the government of Moammar Gadhafi, not just protect Libyan civilians.
The state-run Global Times newspaper’s Chinese edition said in an editorial Thursday that Beijing should continue to align itself with Russia in voting in the U.N. Security Council.
The paper said that no matter how the situation unfolds in Syria, Beijing should maintain its position of opposing external military intervention.
“The West only wants a result that benefits their interest, and does not care if the process is peaceful,” the newspaper said. “Yesterday’s bloodshed in Damascus has made the West very excited. We just want to say one thing here: no matter how the Syrian situation develops later, let the process be less painful for the Syrian people.”
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Russia envoy: Assad ready to quit power in "orderly way"
By John Irish
PARIS | Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:44am EDT
(Reuters) - The Russian ambassador to France said on Friday he believed that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had accepted he would have to leave power although only in an orderly fashion, but the Syrian government swiftly denied this.
Ambassador Alexandre Orlov told French RFI radio that Assad, embattled by a rebellion against his rule, signaled readiness to step down when he accepted a recent international declaration which foresaw a transition towards a more democratic Syria.
"At the Geneva conference, there was a final communique that foresees a transition towards a more democratic system," Orlov said. "This final communique was accepted by Assad. Assad nominated his representative to lead the negotiations with the opposition for this transition. That means he accepted to leave, but in an orderly way."
The Syrian Information Ministry quickly denied this, saying Orlov's remarks were "completely devoid of truth".
A spokesman for the Russian embassy in France later said Orlov's words were "taken out of context" and that he had no "exclusive information about Assad's readiness to step down", the Interfax news agency reported.
"The meaning of the ambassador's remarks was that Assad could leave power or stay in his post, but this decision must be taken not by the (U.N.) Security Council or anyone else, but only by the president himself and the Syrian people," Interfax quoted embassy spokesman Sergei Barinov as saying.
That was a repeat of Russia's standard line.
Barinov said Orlov meant that Assad's acceptance of the Geneva declaration "in principle could mean that he does not rule out the possibility of ceding power in a civilized manner".
Orlov had earlier told RFI his personal opinion was that Assad would not be able to remain in power. "I think it will be difficult for him to stay after everything that has happened. But essentially, he has accepted that he will have to leave."
Moscow has also argued that Assad is ready to comply with demands he delegate authority by naming a representative to conduct a political dialogue with the opposition.
RUSSIA PIVOTAL TO ASSAD'S FUTURE
Any Russian pressure on Assad to go would be highly significant because Moscow has long been his biggest ally and has repeatedly foiled efforts to isolate and dislodge him from power by blocking sanctions resolutions at the United Nations.
Moscow on Thursday vetoed a Western-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution that would have contained a threat to impose sanctions if Syria did not comply with U.N.-Arab League Special Envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan.
Moscow has repeatedly said any deal must follow the principles outlined at talks in Geneva on June 30 between Annan and veto-holding members of the Security Council, which Russia until now had said did not specifically require Assad's exit.
"What Russia is defending is not Bashar al-Assad's regime, but international order that was created in 1945 around the United Nations," Orlov said. "For us it is a matter of principle that goes beyond what is happening in Syria."
A senior Western diplomat recommended caution with respect to Orlov's comments. "We have not heard Assad say he is willing to step down before," the diplomat said. "But what does he mean? Does he mean now or in two years time. We have to be cautious."
Asked about Orlov's comments, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said Assad was part of the problem and not the solution.
"We have been asking for a long time that he leaves the Syrian political landscape because for months he has committed too many massacres. Mr Assad is not part of the future for the Syrian people."
Separately, Interfax quoted a "military-diplomatic source" as saying Russia would not send three repaired military helicopters and air defense equipment to Syria until the situation there returns to normal.
Russia came under sharp Western criticism over what it acknowledged was a planned shipment of three repaired helicopters and air defense systems to Syria, and the cargo ship carrying the weapons last month turned back toward Russia when its London-based insurance company withdrew coverage.
Citing a separate source, Interfax reported that the three helicopters had been removed from the vessel, the Alaed, in the Russia Baltic Sea port of Baltiisk recently.
(Additional reporting by Khaled Yaboub Oweis in Amman, Dominic Evans in Beirut and Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Editing by Mark Heinrich)
Five reasons why Syria may be at a tipping point
Since the start of the conflict in Syria, international observers have been watching the government of President Bashar al-Assad for signs that the once-feared regime might be vulnerable to overthrow. Despite Syrian efforts to crush the rebels and to stifle news out of the country, this past week has shown the strongest evidence yet that the end of the Assad regime may be near. Here are five signs that the Syrian conflict may finally be tipping in favor of the rebels.
- Arthur Bright, Correspondent
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Enlarge
Syrian soldiers are celebrating after their entry al-Midan neighbourhood in Damascus, on July 20, in this photo taken on a guided government tour. (Reuters)
1. Assassination bombing
The biggest sign, which Foreign Policy’s Mitch Prothero calls “the equivalent of blowing up the Death Star,” is clearly the July 18 assassination bombing in Damascus that killed several key members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, including Defense Minister Daoud Rajha, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, and Assistant Vice President Hassan Turkmani. The attack prompted “unrestrained glee” among Syria’s rebels, as it showed they had a much longer reach – into the heart of the Assad regime – than international observers had guessed.
The most significant death, writes the Monitor’s Nick Blanford, is probably Mr. Shawkat’s. While Mr. Rajha, a Christian, headed the defense ministry, Shawkat was Assad’s brother-in-law, a member of the Alawite sect that controls Syria, and a key enforcer for the regime. His death “suggests that no one in the regime is immune from the potential reach of the armed opposition, a grim fact that must send a shudder up the collective spine of the Syrian leadership.”
Russia accuses US of justifying terrorism in Syria
By REUTERS
07/25/2012 13:48
Lavrov slams comments made by US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland who said attacks on Assad's top officials are "not surprising"; Assad launches counter-assaults on Damascus, Aleppo.
http://www.jpost.com/HttpHandlers/Sh...ashx?ID=198742 Photo: Denis Sinyakov / Reuters Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the United States on Wednesday of justifying terrorism against the Syrian government and berated Western nations he said had not condemned attacks that killed top members of Syrian President Bashar Assad's inner circle.
Referring to what he said were comments by US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland indicating such attacks were not surprising given the Syrian government's conduct, Lavrov said, "This is a direct justification of terrorism."
Meanwhile, the Syrian army turned its forces on Aleppo on Wednesday, ordering an armored column to advance on the country's second biggest city and pounding rebel fighters there with artillery and attack helicopters, opposition activists said.
As hostilities intensified near the Turkish border, Turkey said it was closing its crossing posts, although the United Nations said refugees fleeing Syria would be allowed through.
Two top Syrian diplomats, in the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus, have deserted their posts, becoming the latest officials to abandon the Damascus government, rebels said.
http://www.jpost.com/HttpHandlers/Sh...ashx?ID=179272
The 16-month revolt against Syrian President Bashar Assad has been transformed from an insurgency in remote provinces into a battle for control of the two main cities, Aleppo and the capital, Damascus, where fighting exploded last week.
Assad's forces have launched massive counter assaults in both cities. They appear to have beaten rebels back from neighborhoods in the capital and are turning towards Aleppo, a commercial hub in the north.
Syrian forces fired artillery and rockets on Wednesday at the northern Damascus suburb of al-Tel in an attempt to seize it from rebels, causing panic and forcing hundreds of families to flee, residents and opposition activists said.
The 216th mechanized battalion headquartered near Tel started bombarding the town of about 100,000 people before dawn and initial reports indicated residential apartment blocks were being hit, they said.
"Military helicopters are flying now over the town. People were awakened by the sound of explosions and are running away," Rafe Alam, one of the activists, said by phone from a hill overlooking Tel. "Electricity and telephones have been cut off."
Opposition sources also reported helicopters and machine-guns were firing on the neighborhood of Hajar al-Aswad. The slum lies on the southern outskirts of the capital and has been a haven for rebels sneaking into Damascus from the suburbs.
Ryan Mauro postulated this very thing way back at the start of the Iraq invasion. He wrote it in his book as well. He used news sources to back his assertion that just prior to the fall of Bagdad, Russia was helping Saddam move chem and other weapon out of Iraq and burying things like Migs. We had a release of images of the buried Migs a long ways back and the one visible assertion to chem to Syria was the truck caravan from Iraq to Syria caught on Sat photos. Add that the attempted attack on Jordan after Bagdads fall was Syrian and the chems weps were tagged as being Iraq in origin. The media did not run with any of this, but let these details gather dust.
The Russians have been involved in making moves like this for a LONG time now.
I'm betting dimes to doughnuts that the WMD is traceable back to Russia to BEGIN with. I don't think the Arabs had the wherewithal to develop chemical weapons in the first place. They sure as hell haven't had the ability to find nuclear material, produce reactors or do any of that shit on their own. I don't need news articles to back it up either.
I have dealt with the Communists before. They are liars, cheaters and will do ANYTHING to screw up a perfectly normal and sane society. Egypt when I visited there wasn't radical. There were no nut cases in the late 70s. Or if there were they were well hidden or clammed up.
The entire Middle East has gone to hell in a handbasket and you can bet your ass the Russians are behind MOST of it.
Fighting Rages in Syria, Turkey Closes Key Crossings
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A Syrian rebel takes position as a helicopter hovers over the northern city of Aleppo, July 23, 2012.
Henry Ridgwell
July 25, 2012
ONCUPINA, Turkey - Fierce fighting continued in Syria on Wednesday. Rebels sent reinforcements to the battered historic city of Aleppo as government forces stepped up attacks with helicopters and machine guns.
Activists say rebels set fire to a police station near Aleppo. They also say clashes and heavy shelling have continued in regions including Homs, Hama, Deir el-Zour and the Damascus suburbs as President Bashar al-Assad tries to maintain his grip on power.
The opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says more than 40 people have been killed across Syria on Wednesday.
Turkey Closes Border
Neighboring Turkey has closed key border crossings to commercial traffic from Syria but says they remain open for refugees.
Ankara says it is taking the measure due to security concerns. Last week, Turkish drivers said their trucks were looted and burned as rebels captured the Syrian side of the Cilvegozu crossing from government forces.
Analysts say the closures will affect Syria's economy by hitting cross-border trade.
At the Kilis refugee camp near Oncupinar, Syrian refugee Abu Hasan expressed support for Turkey's policy. "I think this is an appropriate decision," he said. "Turkey is making the decision to protect its border as well as to protect us."
The Killis camp houses more than 11,000 Syrians.
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Refugees Increasing
The number of refugees is increasing, with most use clandestine smuggling routes over the border.
Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay says more than 44,000 refugees are now sheltered in Turkey.
"There is an expectation that more people may come in," he said. "Therefore, today we have decided to build new camps in several locations including Osmaniye, Kahramanmaras and Nizip."
The Arab League has pledged $100 million to help the Syrian refugees.
Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal says Turkey welcomes donations of equipment, but does not need personnel.
"Some of this assistance has arrived, in the sense of material assistance, and we are ready to receive more of the selected items that we have announced," he said. "And our open door policy will continue."
U.N. Mission Reducing
Meanwhile, U.N. observers in Syria say their mission is dwindling.
Herve Ladsous, the head of U.N. peacekeeping operations, said the Syrian operation continues on a "reduced basis."
He told reporters in Damascus on Wednesday that the security situation in many parts of the country is "extremely delicate."
On Friday, the U.N. Security Council approved a resolution renewing the observer mission for up to 30 days. The resolution allows for a pullout if the violence does not stop.
Earlier this week, the European Union decided to strengthen its arms embargo against the Syrian regime, blacklist nearly 30 government-associated people and companies, and ban the Syrian national airline from landing in EU countries.
On Wednesday, Russia's foreign ministry expressed opposition to the EU sanctions, saying they could be seen as a "blockade" of the country.
Russian, Western navies to face off near Syria
Vladimir Radyuhin
A Russian naval flotilla, which entered the Mediterranean earlier this week, may be there for a long haul, the Russian Navy said.
“The inter-fleet flotilla will be on its mission to the Mediterranean as long as dictated by the operational situation in the region and combat training plans,” a source in the Russian Navy command told the Interfax-AVN military news agency on Friday.
A joint group of 10 Russian warships and 10 escort vessels led by the Admiral Chabanenko anti-submarine destroyer and including landing ships with marines on board, entered the Meditarranean on Tuesday. It is currently stationed off the Southern Syrian coastline. Russia rents a naval supply basis at the Syrian port of Tartus, but naval commanders said the Russian warships will not enter the port.
The powerful Russian task force has been deployed in the Mediterranean at a time when the Syrian conflict is escalating and the United States has vowed to “intensify” its efforts “outside the Security Council,” where Russia and China have blocked Western attempts to sanction outside interference in Syria.
The British, French and U.S. navies are planning a far larger deployment of warships in Eastern Mediterranean in autumn for war games codenamed Exercise Cougar 12.
The Russian Navy earlier denied that its deployment was linked to the current crisis in Syria, but said the Russian flotilla will remain in the Mediterranean at least till October.
“The Mediterranean mission of the Russian flotilla is being overly politicised,” Interfax-AVN quoted the Russian Navy source as saying.
“Those who do not like the presence of the Russian Navy in international waters, would better get used to idea that our warships will henceforth be deployed on a permanent basis in the Mediterranean and other seas,” the Russian naval official said.
Obama authorizes secret U.S. support for Syrian rebels
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By Mark Hosenball
WASHINGTON | Wed Aug 1, 2012 5:58pm EDT
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing U.S. support for rebels seeking to depose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his government, U.S. sources familiar with the matter said.
Obama's order, approved earlier this year and known as an intelligence "finding," broadly permits the CIA and other U.S. agencies to provide support that could help the rebels oust Assad.
This and other developments signal a shift toward growing, albeit still circumscribed, support for Assad's armed opponents - a shift that intensified following last month's failure of the U.N. Security Council to agree on tougher sanctions against the Damascus government.
The White House is for now apparently stopping short of giving the rebels lethal weapons, even as some U.S. allies do just that.
But U.S. and European officials have said that there have been noticeable improvements in the coherence and effectiveness of Syrian rebel groups in the past few weeks. That represents a significant change in assessments of the rebels by Western officials, who previously characterized Assad's opponents as a disorganized, almost chaotic, rabble.
Precisely when Obama signed the secret intelligence authorization, an action not previously reported, could not be determined.
The full extent of clandestine support that agencies like the CIA might be providing also is unclear.
White House spokesman Tommy Vietor declined comment.
'NERVE CENTER'
A U.S. government source acknowledged that under provisions of the presidential finding, the United States was collaborating with a secret command center operated by Turkey and its allies.
Last week, Reuters reported that, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey had established a secret base near the Syrian border to help direct vital military and communications support to Assad's opponents.
This "nerve center" is in Adana, a city in southern Turkey about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to Incirlik, a U.S. air base where U.S. military and intelligence agencies maintain a substantial presence.
Turkey's moderate Islamist government has been demanding Assad's departure with growing vehemence. Turkish authorities are said by current and former U.S. government officials to be increasingly involved in providing Syrian rebels with training and possibly equipment.
European government sources said wealthy families in Saudi Arabia and Qatar were providing significant financing to the rebels. Senior officials of the Saudi and Qatari governments have publicly called for Assad's departure.
On Tuesday, NBC News reported that the Free Syrian Army had obtained nearly two dozen surface-to-air missiles, weapons that could be used against Assad's helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. Syrian government armed forces have employed such air power more extensively in recent days.
NBC said the shoulder-fired missiles, also known as MANPADs, had been delivered to the rebels via Turkey.
On Wednesday, however, Bassam al-Dada, a political adviser to the Free Syrian Army, denied the NBC report, telling the Arabic-language TV network Al-Arabiya that the group had "not obtained any such weapons at all." U.S. government sources said they could not confirm the MANPADs deliveries, but could not rule them out either.
Current and former U.S. and European officials previously said that weapons supplies, which were being organized and financed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, were largely limited to guns and a limited number of anti-tank weapons, such as bazookas.
Indications are that U.S. agencies have not been involved in providing weapons to Assad's opponents. In order to do so, Obama would have to approve a supplement, known as a "memorandum of notification, to his initial broad intelligence finding.
Further such memoranda would have to be signed by Obama to authorize other specific clandestine operations to support Syrian rebels.
Reuters first reported last week that the White House had crafted a directive authorizing greater U.S. covert assistance to Syrian rebels. It was unclear at that time whether Obama had signed it.
OVERT SUPPORT
Separately from the president's secret order, the Obama administration has stated publicly that it is providing some backing for Assad's opponents.
The State Department said on Wednesday the U.S. government had set aside a total of $25 million for "non-lethal" assistance to the Syrian opposition. A U.S. official said that was mostly for communications equipment, including encrypted radios.
The State Department also says the United States has set aside $64 million in humanitarian assistance for the Syrian people, including contributions to the World Food Program, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other aid agencies.
Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury confirmed it had granted authorization to the Syrian Support Group, Washington representative of one of the most active rebel factions, the Free Syrian Army, to conduct financial transactions on the rebel group's behalf. The authorization was first reported on Friday by Al-Monitor, a Middle East news and commentary website.
Last year, when rebels began organizing themselves to challenge the rule of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Obama also signed an initial "finding" broadly authorizing secret U.S. backing for them. But the president moved cautiously in authorizing specific measures to support them.
Some U.S. lawmakers, such as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, have criticized Obama for moving too slowly to assist the rebels and have suggested the U.S. government become directly involved in arming Assad's opponents.
Other lawmakers have suggested caution, saying too little is known about the many rebel groups.
Recent news reports from the region have suggested that the influence and numbers of Islamist militants, some of them connected to al Qaeda or its affiliates, have been growing among Assad's opponents.
U.S. and European officials say that, so far, intelligence agencies do not believe the militants' role in the anti-Assad opposition is dominant.
While U.S. and allied government experts believe that the Syrian rebels have been making some progress against Assad's forces lately, most believe the conflict is nowhere near resolution, and could go on for years.
Guess it ain't a secret now, is it?