Ryan's Thread Of General Thoughts And Musings

[Ryan Ruck]

Been meaning to start one of these threads to just post stuff that comes up in my daily life that is on my mind. No rhyme or reason necessarily...

Figure now is as good a time as any.

Vermont Army Navy (which I've posted about a couple times before in the Hot Deals thread) was recently running a 10% off sale on socks (plus 10% off for taking their site survey) so I picked up 7 pairs of these Wool Boot Socks.

While sitting around and with a bit of a chill in the air I decided to try on a pair. They are super comfortable and really warm! They come up mid calf and are definitely worth the $5.50 per pair. Can't wait to try them out in the snow this winter with my Mickey Boots (assuming we actually get snow this winter!).

[American Patriot]

You will be getting winter.

I need to get some new socks (and throw the Mukluks into the truck too now that I think about it. It's almost Halloween, which is usually when we get our first snows. lol)

[AGEUSAF]

I have been working on the same list. Working on the river here in Minnesota in January....I always need tripple of everything stuff just gets worn out so fast. Then again not to be a debbie downer but depending on things I might be sitting at home.

Crazy thing is I turned down an internal job offer to go to Afghanistan for a year. I can't leave my kid for that long, no way. I hate that I can't go either but at least I have a choice I suppose.

Sorry Ryan I hi jacked your thinking out loud thread lol but there I just aired out my concerns for the day. Now I must go rake leaves.

[Ryan Ruck]

You will be getting winter.

I need to get some new socks (and throw the Mukluks into the truck too now that I think about it. It's almost Halloween, which is usually when we get our first snows. lol)

Dear God I hope so! Last Winter we got about a total of 1" of snow I think. I honestly don't remember a winter like that. That's one reason I can't wait to move out West, plenty of snow!

Like I mentioned, I had gotten a pair of those white military Mickey boots for last winter since I had heard they are amazing in the cold/snow and never even had an opportunity to use them.

Sorry Ryan I hi jacked your thinking out loud thread lol but there I just aired out my concerns for the day. Now I must go rake leaves.

No problem! That's kind of what this thread is for. We'll just see where it leads.

As for Afghanistan, it might be financially enticing but in today's environment and situation Obama has put us in, it could likely be a very unsafe choice. 4 years ago would have been a different story but I wouldn't risk it today.

[American Patriot]

Well, Ryan, if you "believe" in "Global Warming" then you are gonna have a sucky winter. The chances are good we're headed for an Ice Age anyway. hahaha.

You got all your water dumped this summer though, didn't you?

Ohio gets an average of about 39" of rain per year. If you get 10" of snow, that's roughly the same as 1" of rain.

by Comparison, Colorado gets 12.5 " of rain per year. (Around cities, I took numbers from several widely separated cities and averaged it, same for Ohio).

Now the MOUNTAINs get a LOT of snow, as much as 200" per year. My city gets about 38" of snow per year (in the city itself).

[Ryan Ruck]

Actually we were in the "Exceptional" drought area this Summer. The Spring was decently wet and so far Fall has been pretty wet but summer sucked royally.

[American Patriot]

Well, pretty much the whole country has been under a drought. We're STILL under one. My yard, such as it is, is full of dead stuff. No water on the hill at all.

We're supposed to have a cold front moving through... oh, Wednesday(ish) I think, and there is a slight chance of water. Very slight.

[Malsua]

Where can I get some of this drought?

Holy shit every fucking week, it's another days long downpour. It really sucks!

I want the good ole days of "water emergency". Jeesus, it'd be nice to dry out.

[Ryan Ruck]

Driving around today I noticed a substantial drop in gas prices in my general area anywhere with prices from $3.07-$3.15. Amazing how the prices are dropping like a rock 2 weeks out from the election after they've hung in the mid to high $3 range, and sometimes over $4, for the longest time. According to what I've heard on the news this drop is because of a reported increase in petroleum inventory levels.

I don't claim to know much of anything about the petroleum industry and how these inventory levels are reported or work but...

< tinfoil >
I wonder if it is possible to "cook the books" on the reported inventory levels to manipulate gas prices. Like the unemployment rate, could it just be "adjusted" at a later time to correct any errors while making things look one way or another in the near term?

After doing a little searching, it looks like the US Energy Information Administration handles the weekly petroleum status reports. I'm assuming that's what all the news agencies are going off of when they claim "reported increases in inventory levels."

Considering this is a government agency, how tough would it be to get someone in charge to report what you want if you're the President or at the least someone connected with the President?
< /tinfoil >

Or maybe I'm just ignorant about how these inventory levels are assessed...

[Malsua]

It sure would be nice not to spend $100 a week putting gasoline in my vehicle.

[American Patriot]

I don't understand WHY OIL COMPANIES would be "HELPING" Obama.....

[Malsua]

Oil companies don't control the price of oil.

Speculators, hedge funds, Dr Evil, etc. can swing oil prices and inventories.

Suppose you had a slush fund in cash under management in a speculative commodity fund.

The price of oil is going up so you buy a bunch of it. You may even take physical delivery of it. This is what your customers want, so you're not actually doing anything wrong.

At some point you can exercise your options and sell off either futures or physical oil. Your customers are trusting you to do the right thing with their money. So instead of waiting two weeks and earning them an extra 1/10 of a percent on their investment, you sell at your choosing.

If you choose to do it 2 weeks out from an election, you could dump a massive inventory of oil into the market at a prime time to affect public perception. It is only temporary. Like a rat in a snake, it won't be long before the snake is normal again, but during the period of digestion, the snake looks awfully funny.

Also, the fact that you sell large quantities is a trigger for others to do the same, so you can in effect cause a rush to exit if there is a large enough volume.

[American Patriot]

I see. So... maybe some of these speculators and hedge funds are the US Government....

[Malsua]

I see. So... maybe some of these speculators and hedge funds are the US Government....

Well, it could be some manipulation from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They can affect available supply by how much they're buying, selling and otherwise managing.

I wouldn't put it past the feds to just create a pause that affects the purchases and hence inventories. Think how easy that is to create?

Any entity that manages energy purchases are simply put into a review status for a 2 week period. This causes them to push out deliveries and orders yet isn't heard anywhere because it's just a pause. No one hits a panic button.

[Ryan Ruck]

The above is an interesting thought too Mal!

I just think the sudden drop in prices after being steady in the mid to upper $3 range and the timing of it are a bit unusual. Just like the sudden drop in the unemployment numbers to under 8% after being above 8% for a near record period.

And given it is tied to increasing inventories, it made me wonder who counts the inventory... Like I said, from what I can gather it appears that that information comes from the US Energy Information Administration - a government agency.

I have seen nothing that gives cause to either of these two things changing as greatly and as rapidly as they have and they both benefit Obama.

Yeah it is a little tinfoily but I don't put much past a Chicago politician, especially when they know the short attention span of the American public.

Personally I'd have preferred to see gas go to $5/gallon in the sort term just to guarantee removing Obama from office.

[American Patriot]

What we CAN expect then is a surge in prices again, say... a few days AFTER the election (regardless of who gets elected) because the prices will stabilize again, right?

I don't get why they want 8 dollar/gallon fuel.

So we all have to go to electric cars? And no coal to make electricity?

[Ryan Ruck]

That's what I suspect will happen though not anything as high as $8. It will just end up back in the mid to upper $3 range like it was before.

And you're right, Obama's real goal is high gas prices to force folks out of the suburbs and into cities as well as forcing folks to take mass transit.

[American Patriot]

He can kiss my mass transit.

[Malsua]

They've found that if you pack 'em in tight, they vote democrat. High gas prices gets people out of suburbs and into Democrat strong holds.

It goes back to the Dog shit Ice Cream Analogy. The cities are dog shit(D), the people in the suburbs are ice cream(R). No matter how much ice cream you bring into the the city, it's still going to taste like dog shit.

[Ryan Ruck]

FNC covering the price drop now.

AAA is saying prices should keep dropping past Election Day.