North Korea preparing for missile test (again)

[American Patriot]

North Korea preparing for missile test

Satellite reconnaissance images indicate that North Korea is once again preparing to ignore international pressure and test-fire a missile.

The Sohae Satellite Launch Station in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea Photo: Digital Globe/AP








By Julian Ryall in Tokyo

6:15AM GMT 30 Nov 2012




Analysis of pictures by the U-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University suggests that the North could be ready to launch the rocket as early as December 6, although it is believed that the regime may wait until mid-December before attempting a launch.



December 17 marks the one-year anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-il, the father of present leader Kim Jong-un, while any launch close to South Korea's presidential election on December 19 could serve as a propaganda coup.



It would also highlight the failure of Seoul's own rocket programme. On Thursday, South Korea aborted the launch of the domestically developed Naro-1 rocket due to a fault. No new date has been set for a third attempt to get the rocket off the ground.



Basing its conclusions on images provided by commercial earth-imagery company DigitalGlobe Inc., the US-Korea Institute said trailers carrying the first two stages of an Unha rocket are visible near the main missile assembly building at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station on the west coast of North Korea.



The preparations are "a clear indicator that the rocket stages are being checked out before moving to the pad for an eventual launch," it said.

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Other indicators that a launch is imminent are the presence of empty fuel tanks used to bring in propellant for the rocket, increased activity at a facility for VIPs and the construction of temporary covered structures.
In Washington, the UN Security Council that overseas sanctions on North Korea has warned the regime against carrying out another ballistic missile test launch.
Pyongyang is unlikely to heed that advice, however, and is expected to again claim that the launch is merely another peaceful attempt to put a satellite into orbit.
The last effort to launch a rocket ended in failure on April 13 when the vehicle suffered a separation failure and fell into the sea off the west coast of South Korea around 90 seconds after its launch.

[American Patriot]

Red Dawn gave them some inspiration or something.....

[American Patriot]

Somehow... I already knew this was going to be in the news today.... /snicker.

[American Patriot]

North Korea Moves Rocket Components to Launch Complex: Report



Nov. 30, 2012


Analysis of satellite images of North Korea's launch site at Dongchang-ri indicates that trailers carrying two rocket stages are now near a missile assembly structure (AP Photo/DigitalGlobe).



An expert assessment of new satellite surveillance pictures suggests that some rocket components have been transported to North Korea's long-range missile launch complex, CNN reported on Friday.


The website 38 North said the satellite images taken by DigitalGlobe on Nov. 23 and 26 of the Dongchang-ri missile site depict large transport vehicles containing the initial two stages of an Unha space rocket. The trailers are parked close to the primary facility for putting together missiles, according to the website, which is operated by Johns Hopkins University issue experts.


Photo analysis indicates technical preparations are at an advanced enough stage for a possible rocket firing in "the latter half of the first week of December, weather permitting," 38 North concluded.


While the United States is tracking the recent doings at Dongchang-ri, it does not hold the view that a fresh rocket launch will take place in the immediate future, unidentified U.S. defense insiders told CNN.


It would be unusual for North Korea to attempt a rocket launch during this time of year and also after such a short period following its last launch attempt in April, according to CNN.


The spring firing ended badly when the Unha 3 long-range space rocket broke apart minutes after liftoff, a high-profile embarrassment for the young Kim Jong Un regime. The international community rebuked Pyongyang for the launch as a violation of U.N. Security Council restrictions against the North's use of technology with ballistic missile applications.


In past rocket firings, the Stalinist state has given prior notice of "dates and hours for sea or air closure areas for the rocket's first and second stage impact areas," according to 38 North. "Since that has not happened yet, the window would appear to be closing for an early launch."


38 North imagery expert Nick Hansen posited that Pyongyang might merely be putting on a show in response to activities in South Korea, which this week delayed its own deployment of a space satellite. Both Koreas would like to join the elite group of advanced nations that have sent domestically produced satellites into space via indigenously developed rockets.


North Korean regime-controlled media on Friday did not make any obvious reference to any upcoming rocket firing.


South Korean officials on Thursday corroborated the reports on rocket firing preparations. Any such event in coming weeks would be viewed as Pyongyang's response to the South Korean presidential vote scheduled for Dec. 19, according to the Associated Press.


One-time U.S. special envoy for North Korea policy Victor Cha said Pyongyang has a history of carrying out aggravating responses to U.S. and South Korean election contests.


"If North Korea does carry out a launch, Beijing will not be happy," ex-U.S. State Department official Evans Revere said. "It flies in the face of China's request for North Korea to reduce tensions in the region."


Pyongyang is understood to want left-leaning South Korean presidential candidate Moon Jae-in to win the election next month. A rocket launch right before the voting might be construed among the populace as proof the conservative ruling party's hard-line policy on North Korea has been unsuccessful, AP reported.


Moon and the ruling party candidate, Park Geun-hye, have both indicated they would favor more engagement with Pyongyang.


"If indeed a new satellite launch is North Korea's next provocation, it will be an early test of South Korean candidate commitments to reopen dialogue with the North," Council on Foreign Relations Korea expert Scott Snyder stated in an analysis written earlier this week.


Other arguments in favor of a near-term rocket launch include the Dec. 17 first anniversary of the death of longtime North Korean ruler Kim Jong Il, who was succeeded by his youngest son, Kim Jong Un. The younger Kim might wish to commemorate the passing of his father with a high-profile display of national technical prowess.


The chances of a successful launch are questionable as not enough time has gone by to correct all the technical failings from April's attempt, according to experts. Given Pyongyang's secrecy about its missile and nuclear operations, the international community has little insight into what caused the failed launch as well as what corrective measures the North might have attempted since then, International Crisis Group analyst Daniel Pinkston said.


"They call it rocket science because ... it's hard. Everyone makes mistakes," he said.


Pyongyang might have no intention of launching a rocket at this time and is merely seeking to draw attention and gain leverage in any future engagement with Seoul and Washington, other issue analysts have suggested.


Washington, Beijing, and Seoul this week conducted separate senior-level diplomatic meetings around the North Korea issue, reported the Korea Herald.


The chief nuclear negotiators for China and South Korea held talks in Beijing while high-ranking U.S. and South Korean diplomatic officials met in Washington.


South Korean officials emphasized there was nothing out of the ordinary in their diplomatic meetings this week. "Now that the U.S. has completed its presidential election and China's new leadership has begun, we should naturally exchange opinions with each other, especially with the missile issue emerging," a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official said to journalists.


Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party this week sent a number of senior leaders to North Korea. The chief of the party's publicity bureau, Liu Qibao, who was anticipated to tell Pyongyang to cancel any rocket launch plans.


Elsewhere, White House spokesman Jay Carney on Thursday said he did not know anything about a rumored secret trip made by senior Obama administration officials to Pyongyang in August, the Yonhap News Agency reported.


"That's not a question I can answer because it is news to me," Carney said.


A South Korean newspaper reported that the purpose of the trip, which was said to include a National Security Council member, had been to urge North Korea to refrain from provocative actions. The fact that Carney did not know about the event could either mean the news report was incorrect or that the trip was kept extremely secret, according to Yonhap.


In New York on Thursday , the U.N. Security Council panel with oversight on penalties targeting North Korea called on Pyongyang to refrain from launching any rocket, which would be seen as another strategic ballistic missile trial, Yonhap reported.

[Ryan Ruck]

North Korea Plans 'Peaceful' Launch of 'Polar-Orbiting Earth Observation Satellite'

December 1, 2012

North Korea plans to launch a satellite into orbit later this month, the rogue state announced today.

"In the announcement attributed to a spokesman for the Korean Committee for Space Technology, North Korea said the rocket would carry a 'polar-orbiting earth observation satellite' for 'peaceful scientific and technological' purposes," reports the Los Angeles Times.

In a statement released today, the State Department says the launch "would be a highly provocative act that threatens peace and security in the region."

"A North Korean 'satellite' launch would be a highly provocative act that threatens peace and security in the region," the State Department's statement reads. "Any North Korean launch using ballistic missile technology is in direct violation of UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs) 1718 and 1874."

The UN Security Council Presidential Statement adopted unanimously on April 16, 2012 strongly condemned North Korea's April 13 launch and expressed its determination to take action accordingly in the event of a further launch. We call on North Korea to comply fully with its obligations under all relevant UNSCRs.

Devoting scarce resources to the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles will only further isolate and impoverish North Korea. The path to security for North Korea lies in investing in its people and abiding by its commitments and international obligations.

The United States is consulting closely with its Six-Party and other key allies and partners on next steps.

[American Patriot]

yep....

yep...


Don't worry, we can and will vaporize it.

[Ryan Ruck]

Korea Rocket Launch Changes Flight Paths

December 4, 2012

South Korea plans to reroute passenger flights over the Yellow Sea, to avoid possible collisions with debris from a long-range rocket that North Korea plans to launch.

The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs on Monday said it made the decision after learning that North Korea had informed China and Singapore of the flight path and other details.

North Korea told those nations the rocket will be launched in the morning and its debris will fall into the Yellow Sea and in waters east of the Philippines.

The International Maritime Organisation said North Korea said it will launch a satellite between December 10 and 22 during the hours of 7am and noon, and provided a list of dangerous co-ordinates where debris could fall.

South Korean officials say they will reroute six Korean Air flights.

They are also considering whether to reroute or change the departure times of several Korean Air and Asiana Airlines flights to Manila.

In a defiant move expected to raise the stakes of a global stand-off over its missile and nuclear programs, the North announced on Saturday that it will launch a rocket mounted with a polar-orbiting Earth observation satellite this month.

The United States considers North Korea's rocket launches to be veiled covers for tests of technology for long-range missiles designed to strike the United States.

Such tests are banned by the UN security council, which has imposed two rounds of sanctions on the North following its nuclear tests.

It will be North Korea's second launch attempt under leader Kim Jong Un, who took power following his father Kim Jong Il's death nearly a year ago.

The embarrassing misfire of its last rocket eight months ago earned the country widespread international condemnation.

[American Patriot]

this will will "fail" too.

/chuckles

[American Patriot]

North Korea plans rocket launch within days

By the CNN Wire Staff
December 1, 2012 -- Updated 1833 GMT (0233 HKT)


North Korea a step closer to launch


STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• NEW: Nuland: A launch "would be a highly provocative act that threatens peace and security"
• NEW: UK Foreign Secretary William Hague calls on North Korea to abandon the plan
• South Korea says the North "will be faced with a strong response" if the launch happens
• North Korea says the rocket will carry a working satellite into orbit

(CNN) -- North Korea plans to launch a rocket carrying a satellite between December 10 and 22, a spokesman for the Korean Committee for Space Technology said Saturday, according to state-run media.
The Unha-3 rocket will launch from the Sohae Space Center in North Phyongan Province and put a "working satellite" into orbit, the report by the official Korean Central News Agency said.
The planned launch is unusual because it comes during the wintertime and only months after a failed attempt in April.
On that occasion, Pyongyang also said the rocket was supposed to put a satellite into orbit, but the launch was seen by many other countries as cover for a ballistic missile test and drew international condemnation.
New activity at North Korean launch site
Analysts: N. Korea tests rocket motors
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said another launch "would be a highly provocative act that threatens peace and security in the region."
It would be also in direct violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874, under which North Korea is barred from testing ballistic missile technology, she said in a statement.
"Devoting scarce resources to the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles will only further isolate and impoverish North Korea," she said. "The path to security for North Korea lies in investing in its people and abiding by its commitments and international obligations."
The North's failed launch in April soured relations with the United States and scuppered a deal for Washington to provide thousands of tons of food aid to the North's malnourished population.
KCNA said a second version of the same Korean-made Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite is to be launched this time.
Scientists and technicians have analyzed the mistakes made in April, when the rocket broke apart shortly after takeoff, and have worked to improve the reliability and precision of the satellite and carrier rocket, the news agency reported.
The "polar-orbiting earth observation satellite" will blast off southward on a trajectory designed so that parts of the carrier rocket that fall during the launch will not land on neighboring nations, the news agency said.
It said North Korea had acted with utmost transparency on its last "peaceful scientific and technological satellite launch," and would "fully comply with relevant international regulations and usage" this time too.
South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade expressed "serious concern" Saturday over its neighbor's planned launch, saying it was a "long-range missile test in the name of working satellite."
If the North goes ahead with the launch as intended, "it will be faced with a strong response," the ministry's statement said.
"The launch is a severe provocation as it is ignoring the concern and warning from the international community and is a direct challenge to the international community as a whole," it said.
South Korea will work closely with the international community, including fellow members of the so-called six-party talks on North Korea -- the United States, Japan, China and Russia -- to stop Pyongyang's "provocative act," it added.
UK Foreign Secretary William Hague also condemned the planned launch and urged the North Korean authorities to abandon the project.
"Failure to do so must lead to a further response by the international community, and will damage the prospects for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," he said in a statement.
The botched launch in April drew stern criticism from the U.N. Security Council, which repeated demands for Pyongyang not to carry out similar tests in the future. It followed attempts in 2006 and 2009 that were also judged by international experts as having failed.
News of the latest planned launch does not come as a complete surprise to North Korea watchers.
A U.S. academic website, 38 North, published an analysis of commercial satellite images Thursday that it said revealed trailers carrying the first two stages of one of the North's Unha rockets near the main missile assembly building at the Sohae Satellite Launch Station on the country's west coast.
The analysis by 38 North, which is run by the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, followed the release of an image this week by the satellite imagery company DigitalGlobe that showed increased activity at the launch station.
38 North suggested the possible motivation for the activity at the Sohae site was the planned launch of a satellite-bearing rocket this week by its archrival and neighbor, South Korea. Seoul postponed that launch minutes before takeoff after the discovery of an electronic signal problem.
Top satellite image analyst Joe Bermudez, of DigitalGlobe, told CNN earlier this week that a launch on this scale for a second time within a year would be unprecedented for North Korea.
The North Koreans are looking for "maximum political impact" domestically, regionally and internationally with a test launch such as this, he said, calling it a "very politically motivated event."
The timing of a launch at the end of this year would coincide with many consequential events, said Bermudez, including South Korea's planned launch.
North Korea and Japan will also be holding another set of bilateral talks early in December and the South Korean presidential election will take place in less than a month.
North Korea-watchers say new leader Kim Jung Un may be responding to internal political pressure from hard-liners to send a message.

[American Patriot]

FNC was just reporting that NATO is "very concerned" about this test. Clinton is telling DPRK "don't do it". Japan and others have stated "we WILL shoot this down if it crosses our air space" - and the missile could reach Los Angeles. (It has about a 6000 nm range)

[Malsua]

Wouldn't it be just fantastic if Japan shot it down?

[American Patriot]

I was thinking it would be funny as all get out. haha

[MinutemanCO]

Why do you suppose the pic in Post #9 has a global image of North America on one of the launch technician's screens?

[Malsua]

I suspect those pictures are for show. None of those drones are actually doing anything of use. They just want it to look like Mission control.

like this.

[American Patriot]

Why do you suppose the pic in Post #9 has a global image of North America on one of the launch technician's screens?

Actually, this is a "planned space satellite launch". They have to be able to track the missile's course, and know if they have had space insertion. They also need to know the track of the satellite if it gets up there (which I doubt it will). So I think they probably have active computer tracking systems (like our own satellite tracking programs) to use, but why we're looking at Canada on the map??

Good question. A normal polar orbit (the easiest to accomplish) would take the rocket over the Pacific - on an ENE course, eventually flying over Alaska and curving around somewhere around the Eastern side of Canada or even middle Canada (thus taking the meteor... er... satellite back down the center of the US).

This is a kind of typical polar orbit. It's probably way different from what the DPRK satellite launch will look like, but certainly similar:



The red dots indicate what we call a "ground track".

When I was doing a lot of satellite work with amateur radio, I used a couple of programs to give me these tracks and footprints which is the area the antennas could actually "see from space" which told me when the satellite was in range of my radio systems, the altitude and azimuth I had to aim the antennas on the ground, etc

[American Patriot]

Here is a BBC article with a map on the predicted path... (it looks like they will make a south launch so as not to piss off Japan for instance, and perhaps even China or Russia to the NE)

4 December 2012 Last updated at 00:50 ET Share this page

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North Korea confirms rocket plans to UN shipping agency

North Korea had also launched a rocket in April but failed
Continue reading the main story Inside North Korea

• Secretive 'first family'
• North Korea's political elite
• Why was army chief removed?
• Kim's state media makeover

North Korea has confirmed the details of its planned rocket launch this month, says the UN's shipping agency.
The launch is set for between 10 and 22 December, from 07:00 to 12:00 local time (22:00 - 03:00 GMT), said the International Maritime Organisation.
The country's state news agency said on Saturday that the rocket was to launch a satellite into space.
The plan, which follows a failed rocket launch in April, has been met with criticism from neighbouring countries.
The three-stage rocket is expected to fly south - dropping into the sea off the west coast of South Korea and landing in waters east of the Philippines, based on co-ordinates provided by Pyongyang.
The rocket's flight plan is said to take it close to Japan's Okinawa island. The Japanese government is now positioning missile defence interceptors in the event that the rocket veers off course.
North Korea had also previously notified its neighbours of the planned flight path, telling them it will follow a similar route to that of its launch in April.
The US, Japan and South Korea said that the failed rocket flew only for a short time before breaking up and crashing into waters off the Korean peninsula.
The UN, the US, South Korea and Japan have reacted sharply to the planned launch.
Russia and China have also urged Pyongyang to abide by the UN ban on ballistic missile tests.
The planned rocket launch occurs just as South Korea prepares for its presidential election on 19 December.

[American Patriot]

This is why there is a serious issue with this launch (a couple of years back of course). Look at the map too:

Secretary Gates and the North Korean Missile Threat

By David Wright


On January 11, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made headlines during his trip to China by forecasting an increased threat of nuclear missile attack on the United States by North Korea. Referring to the next five years, Gates said, “I think that North Korea will have developed an intercontinental ballistic missile within that time frame,” but added, “I believe they will have a very limited capability.”[1]


This immediately led to questions about the meaning of what appeared to be a new threat assessment. Some reports said it reflected new U.S. intelligence on North Korean missile and nuclear programs, but others believed this was not the case.[2] Indeed, another report cited “U.S. officials” as saying that the assessment was not new but simply reflected the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on North Korea from 2001, which predicted that “before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea.”[3]



A lot has happened since the 2001 NIE, however, raising the question why Secretary Gates would have made such a high-profile statement based on an old assessment. His comments may have been intended as a signal to China, urging it to take steps to make sure this threat does not materialize, or else it would lead to additional U.S. involvement in the region to protect itself.


On the other hand, Gates’ statement that “We consider this a situation of real concern and we think there is some urgency to proceeding down the track of negotiations and engagement,” may indicate that he was highlighting the threat as a prelude to resuming talks with North Korea with the goal of putting limits on its nuclear and missile programs.[4]



Whatever is behind Secretary Gates’ statement, it is worth looking at the current status of North Korea’s missile program, and what further developments would be required to for it to pose a threat to U.S. territory. There are few hard facts about the state of North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. However, based on what has been seen it is possible to make various assessments.


I argue below that North Korea has shown the ability to make technical progress on both its missile and nuclear programs, and is capable of putting together the components to make a long-range missile. Should it decide to push ahead in a focused way, Pyongyang could eventually develop a limited—and unreliable—ability to strike U.S. territory with a long-range missile carrying a crude nuclear warhead.


Whether that would take five years or longer is hard to say. However, past NIEs have continually overestimated the pace of North Korea’s advancement. To what extent North Korea’s actual pace is determined by technical or resource limitations is not clear. But a significant part of the slow pace of its missile program over the past 15 years was the result of the flight test moratorium that Pyongyang observed from 1998 to 2006, which North Korea saw as a quid pro quo for ongoing discussions with the United States. The most effective and verifiable way of preventing Secretary Gates’ prediction from coming to pass would be to convince the North to reinstate a test moratorium, as he has suggested.


Status of North Korea’s Missile Program
The longest range missile that North Korea currently deploys is the Nodong, which is believed to have a range of up to 1,300 km with a 700 kg payload. While there has been speculation about a longer range theater missile based on the Soviet R-7 missile (called SS-N-6 in the United States), which was first deployed as a sea-based weapon by the Soviet Union in 1968, there have been no flight tests of this weapon.


The Unha-2, which North Korea used in an unsuccessful satellite launch in April 2009, represents a significant advance over its past launchers.[5] This is in large part due to the technology used in the second stage, which is considerably more advanced than that seen in previous tests.


The Unha-2 appears to be constructed from components, such as the second stage, that may not have been manufactured in North Korea. If true, this would mean that North Korea’s indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if it can be denied further access to such components. An important factor in understanding the North’s program is therefore to clarify this issue.[6]



While North Korea has twice demonstrated an ability to successfully use staging in a launch—in the Unha-2 and the TaepoDong-1 (TD-1) in 1998—neither test was fully successful since not all of the missile components worked. For example, the third stage of the Unha-2 reportedly separated from the second stage but did not ignite. Had the third stage operated properly it may have been able to place a small satellite (with a mass of up to a couple hundred kilograms) into orbit at an altitude of approximately 500 km.


The Unha-2 launcher represents a significant increase in capability over the TD-1. It is considerably larger than the TaepoDong, with a first-stage diameter of 2.4 meters compared to 1.3 meters. The Unha is also more than three-times larger in mass than the TD-1 (roughly 80 vs. 25 metric tons). This is an important consideration since rockets consist mainly of fuel and the amount of payload they can lift is roughly proportional to their overall mass.


The first stage appears to use a cluster of four Nodong engines housed in a single missile casing and sharing a common fuel tank; the first stage of the TD-1 contained only a single Nodong engine.


The second stage appears identical to the Soviet SS-N-6. There have been reports for years that North Korea had acquired some number of SS-N-6 missiles in the 1990s.[7]
The SS-N-6 utilizes liquid fuels (UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide) that are more advanced than those used in the Scud-B, a 300 km range Soviet missile from the 1960s, and therefore has a high thrust. Since the SS-N-6 was deployed on submarines, the missile has a compact design with a lightweight aluminum casing.[8]



The third stage of the Unha-2 appears to be very similar if not identical to the upper stage of the Iranian Safir-2 launch vehicle, which placed a small satellite in orbit in February 2009. Both appear to use the small steering motors from the SS-N-6 for propulsion.[9] This appears to be a concrete indication of cooperation between the Iranian and North Korean programs.


Capability as a Ballistic Missile
North Korea has conducted two nuclear tests, but is not thought to have designed a nuclear warhead that can be delivered by a missile. A device built for an underground test is not constrained by size and weight limits. Turning it into a deliverable warhead has proved to be difficult for countries in the past, requiring a number of years and multiple nuclear tests.[10] A first generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000 to 1,500 kg. North Korea is currently thought to have enough separated plutonium for fewer than 10 weapons.


Figure 1 shows the ranges from the North Korean launch site to several locations. North Korea already has a missile capability against Japan with its Nodong missile.
Distances from the North Korean launch site to locations around the world (figure made in Google Earth).



While some experts refer to a possible North Korean long-range missile as the TaepoDong-2 (TD-2), that name does not appear to refer to a specific missile configuration. Any long-range missile North Korea might develop in the near term would probably be a variant of the Unha-2 launcher. Analysis[11] suggests that if the Unha-2 could carry a 1,000 kg warhead, it would have a range of 10,000 to 10,500 km, allowing the missile to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states.


However, since the Unha-2 was designed to launch a relatively lightweight satellite, its structure is unlikely to be strong enough to allow it to carry a warhead of that weight. The upper stage would probably have to be redesigned, and the additional structure would add mass that would reduce the missile’s range to less than 10,000 km. Similarly, the range would be shorter if the warhead mass was greater than 1,000 kg.


If a 1,000-kg payload were instead launched by the first two stages of the Unha-2, its range could be 7,000-7,500 km, allowing the delivery system to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 U.S. states.


There are a number of hurdles North Korea would have to overcome in order to field such a missile. First, since Pyongyang is not believed to have a nuclear weapon light enough to deliver on such a missile, it would need to conduct further nuclear tests to reduce the warhead’s size and weight.


Second, in order to deliver a warhead on a long-range missile, North Korea would need to develop a reentry heat shield. Reentry heating increases rapidly with the reentry speed of a missile, so a 10,000 km range missile would require a significantly better heat shield than that developed for the much shorter range Nodong missile. Because heat shield techniques and materials have been known for many years, North Korea should be able to develop an adequate shield, but that shield could still be a major source of missile inaccuracy.


Developing a heat shield that gives relatively high accuracy is a very difficult engineering task. For example, making the warhead very blunt rather than pointed would cause it to lose most of its speed at high altitude, which would significantly reduce the total heating. But during the slower descent the warhead would be subject to high-altitude winds for a longer time, reducing the accuracy. Streamlining the warhead so that it passes through the atmosphere quickly, on the other hand, leads to high heating rates, which would require more sophisticated heat shielding, such as an ablative coating. Asymmetric ablation can cause strong lateral forces on the warhead during reentry, which would reduce the accuracy. As a result, a missile based on the Unha-2 would likely have an inaccuracy of 10 km or more. Of course, such low accuracy could still be sufficient for a terror weapon aimed at a large population center.
Third, the Unha-2 was test fired from a known, visible site and requires days to prepare for launch. During that time, the missile would be highly vulnerable to attack. Reducing this vulnerability would require launch sites that were concealed from view. For example, missiles could be stored on transporters in caves, and could be rolled out, erected, and fueled. North Korea might try to develop such a capability in the future, but at this point it is still trying to get its missiles to function properly.
Finally, ballistic missiles are complex systems. Given its limited supply of fissile material, North Korea may well be reluctant to place a warhead on a missile that is likely to fail. Understanding and improving launcher reliability would require a series of additional flight tests.
Possible Future Missile Developments
There are a number of steps North Korea might take to develop a launcher with longer range and/or payload capability. For example, it could replace the third stage of the Unha-2 by a stage with higher thrust. It might also improve the thrust of the first stage by using more advanced propellants, and/or decreasing its structural weight by making the body out of lightweight materials, such as aluminum alloys. However, North Korea’s technical ability to make changes of this kind remains unclear.
Gaining substantially more capability would require North Korea to build a significantly larger missile. For example, China launched its first satellite on the Long March 1, which was similar in size and capability to the Unha-2 but had a more advanced first stage. However, for its first intercontinental weapon (the Dong Feng-5), China developed a much larger missile, with an overall mass of 183 metric tons—more than twice the mass of the Unha-2. Developing a delivery vehicle of this size would be a major, multi-year undertaking.
The general assumption for many years has been that in the early 1990s, North Korea successfully reverse-engineered the Soviet Scud missile and began producing its own version. Afterwards, the North was thought to have scaled up the Scud engine to produce the larger Nodong engine. However, there is evidence that North Korea received significant technical assistance from Russian missile designers and that its program may rely heavily on the acquisition of Russian production equipment and possibly key rocket components.
If North Korea is not able to build some key rocket components indigenously, then its missile program may have to rely on combining existing components in clever ways. That could significantly limit which of the steps listed above that North Korea could take in the near term, unless it is able to adapt existing components. For example, it is not clear that North Korea has a rocket engine that can use more advanced propellants. Similarly, Pyongyang may not currently possess or be able to build a third stage of the right mass and thrust to significantly improve the range/payload of the Unha-2.
Conclusion
Despite its resource limitations, North Korea has shown the ability to use what technology it has to build increasingly capable launchers. One must assume that process will continue unless steps are taken to stop it.
However, the pace of North Korea’s progress has consistently been slower than official U.S. estimates. Moreover, a credible threat would not appear out of the blue. Developing a working missile and a deliverable warhead would require North Korea to conduct new missile flight tests and additional nuclear tests which can be detected with high confidence.
If such a threat starts to develop, it is worth emphasizing that the missile defenses the United States is developing cannot be assumed to be an effective response. Any country able to develop or acquire long-range missiles with nuclear warheads would be able to develop or acquire decoys and other countermeasures that could defeat missile defenses, as the 1999 National Intelligence Estimate[12] and other studies[13] have pointed out.
The development of a North Korean threat is not preordained. The example of Pyongyang’s missile flight test moratorium from 1998 to 2006, combined with what appears to be an increased openness to return to the negotiating table, suggests that there may be options for preventing the emergence of the threat that Secretary Gates has highlighted.

---

[1]L. Shaughnessy, “Gates: North Korea could have long-range missile within 5 years,” CNN, January 11, 2010,
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-01-11/w...ng?_s=PM:WORLD.
[2] E. Bumiller and D. Sanger, “Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S.,” New York Times, January 11, 2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/12/wo...ef=todayspaper.
[3] Shaughnessy, “Gates: North Korea could have long-range missile within 5 years.”
[4] Anne Gearan, “Gates: North Korea will pose direct threat to U.S.,” AP, Jan. 12, 2010, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110111/...s/as_us_nkorea.
[5] D. Wright and T. Postol, “A Post-Launch Examination of the Unha-2,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 29 June 2009, http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/f...-of-the-unha-2.
[6] D. Wright, “North Korea’s Missile Program,” September 2010, http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documen...le-program.pdf.
[7] Andrew Feickert, “North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States,” Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, 1 October 2003,
http://www.history.navy.mil/library/...ssile.htm#fn22. Reports have also stated that in 2005 Iran bought 18 SS-N-6 missiles from North Korea.
[8] For information about the R-27 missile, see Pavel Podvig, ed, Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001), pp.319-322.
[9] Geoff Forden, “Safir—Iran Hops Off the SCUD Bandwagon,” 25 August 2008, http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/Safir–Iran%20Hops%20Off%20the%20SCUD%20Bandwagon1. pdf; Theodore Postol, “A Technical Assessment of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” 6 May 2009, http://docs.ewi.info/JTA_TA_Program.pdf.
[10] Li Bin, “Nuclear Missile Delivery Capabilities in Emerging Nuclear States,” Science and Global Security, Vol. 6, 1997, pp. 311-331, http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publica...f/6_3libin.pdf.
[11] Wright and Postol, “A Post-Launch Examination of the Unha-2.”
[12] National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015,”September 1999, http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missil...msl.htm#rtoc20.
[13] Sessler et al., Countermeasures, April 2000, http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/cm_all.pdf.

[American Patriot]

China concerned over North Korean rocket launch plans

Chinese foreign ministry statement on North Korean rocket launch says all sides should avoid acts that raise tensions

• Associated Press in Beijing
  
• guardian.co.uk, Sunday 2 December 2012 21.51 EST

North Korean soldiers stand guard in front of the Unha-3 rocket which failed to launch in April. Photograph: Pedro Ugarte/AFP/Getty Images

China has expressed concern over its ally North Korea's plans to launch a long-range rocket in mid-December.
All sides should work for stability and avoid acts that raise tensions, the foreign ministry said in a brief statement. It acknowledged North Korea's right to the peaceful use of outer space, but said that had to be harmonised with restrictions including those set by the United Nations Security Council.
"We hope all relevant parties will do that which benefits peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, hope all sides will respond calmly and avoid exacerbating the situation," ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in the statement.
The North Korean launch, set for 10 December to 22 December, is likely to heighten already strained tensions with Washington and Seoul as South Korea plans to hold a presidential election on 19 December and President Barack Obama prepares to begin his second term.
It would be North Korea's second launch attempt under leader Kim Jong-un, who took power following his father Kim Jong-il's death nearly a year ago. That first launch eight months ago earned North Korea widespread international condemnation, despite ending in an embarrassing misfire.
Some analysts have expressed skepticism that North Korea has corrected whatever caused the first failure. North Korea says the rocket will be mounted with a polar-orbiting Earth observation satellite.
Despite its close ties to North Korea, previous Chinese statements have had little perceptible effect.
China is North Korea's only major political ally and its main source of food and fuel for keeping the North's moribund economy from collapsing.
However, Beijing has been highly resistant to using any of its leverage to moderate North Korea's behaviour, fearing that could cause an implosion leading to political chaos and a wave of refugees crossing its border.

[American Patriot]

North Korea's missile gamble

The Korea Herald
Asia News Network
Seoul

December 6, 2012 1:00 am
Almost a year has passed since North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un took power following his father's death on December 17, 2011. The Swiss-educated young man was widely expected to take his impoverished nation in a new direction and show a leadership different from his father's iron-fisted rule.

Since his enthronement, the 20-something leader has repeatedly pledged to focus on building the economy and raising the standard of living, saying that it is an objective laid out for him by his father.

As recently as August, Kim told a visiting Chinese delegation that one key goal of the Workers' Party was to develop the economy and improve livelihoods so that the North Korean people could lead happy and civilized lives.

Yet he has been all talk and no action. He has not made any serious attempt to lead the isolated and destitute nation in a new direction. Like his father, he has been caught up in the illusion that nuclear weapons and long-range missiles will make North Korea a strong and prosperous state.

Now, as the first anniversary of his father's death nears, the son is preparing to commemorate him in his unique way - a rocket launch that is widely seen as a cover for a ballistic missile test.

The North's state news agency KCNA said last Saturday that an Unha-3 rocket would lift off between December 10 and 22 to put an earth-observing satellite into space. The planned launch deviates from Pyongyang's past practice in two respects. First, it is the second launch attempt this year, following the failed one in April. Never before has Pyongyang made two launch attempts in a year. The short interval between the two launches calls into question whether the North has identified the causes of the April debacle and fixed whatever went wrong. The North's space agency asserted that it had improved the reliability and precision of the satellite and carrier rocket since the April disaster. Yet chances are high that the December launch could follow the same fate as the April one, which crashed into the sea after flying a mere 120 kilometres.

Second, Pyongyang has thus far launched rockets in the spring or summer, not in the middle of winter. This is because weather conditions are better in spring and summer. For a rocket like the Unha-3 that uses liquid fuel, cold weather is definitely not preferable.

When seen against this backdrop, the young North Korean leader is taking a gamble with this launch. But he appears to think he can make political gains even if the launch fails again.

It is worth noting that the North's announcement came just one day after Kim met a senior official from Beijing, who delivered a letter from China's new leader Xi Jinping.

China is obviously unhappy with the North's missile test, as it goes against its policy of stabilising the Korean Peninsula. It probably has conveyed its disapproval of the test through the envoy.

The North's decision to go ahead probably reflects Kim's intention to reassert North Korea's independence from foreign influence, even from China, its only ally.

Yet if the launch ends in failure again, the fallout could be much more serious than Kim may think. It will inevitably deal a serious blow to his leadership. It could even threaten his still shaky grip on power.

Of course, should the launch succeed, the young leader would reap handsome gains. It would not only bolster his leadership and control of the military but increase overseas demand for the North's missile technology.

Yet if he calculates that a successful missile test would improve Pyongyang's position in future negotiations with Washington and exert pressure on Seoul to change its policy on the North, he is mistaken. He should realise that his missile threat won't change the policies of Washington or Seoul. The North's missiles can neither change the destiny of his nation nor improve the lives of his people.

Therefore, Kim should stop his missile gamble. More importantly, he should give up the ambition of becoming a nuclear power. What he needs to do is look to Myanmar and see how a pariah state can break from isolation and get assistance from other countries.

[American Patriot]

US general: North Korea’s planned rocket launch intended to demonstrate missile capability


By Associated Press, Updated: Thursday, December 6, 8:50 AM

WASHINGTON — A top U.S. general says North Korea’s plan to fire a satellite into space is really intended to show the world its capability to build missiles.


Pacific forces commander Adm. Samuel Locklear says that capability would be destabilizing to international security.

North Korea says it has only peaceful intentions. It plans to launch a rocket between Dec. 10 and Dec. 22.


The U.S. and its allies say they’ll seek U.N. Security Council action if the launch goes ahead in defiance of existing resolutions.


Locklear said Thursday the U.S. is moving ships to the region to have the best “situational awareness” and to reassure allies.


He says North Korea has acquired better technology, but that it was unclear whether problems after a failed April launch had been corrected.