Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
July 31, 2012
Melissa Hanham
Research Associate at Monterey Institute of International Studies
North Korean TEL North Korean TEL
KCNA
Much to the surprise of North Korea watchers, six Chinese Transporter-Erector-Launchers (TELs) showed up in downtown Pyongyang on 15 April 2012. Initial interest focused on the six new — and possibly fake — road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) displayed in the military parade honoring founding father Kim Il Sung (missiles known outside of North Korea as the KN-08). [1] However, the vehicles carrying the missiles may ultimately have the most immediate impact on regional nonproliferation efforts. Chinese bloggers quickly observed that the trucks carrying the missiles were externally identical to Chinese-made vehicles. This revelation holds significant consequences for nonproliferation efforts in the region.
"Fake?" ICBMs, Real Launchers, and Other Developments
Rather than following a linear path, North Korea's missile development trajectory appears to be fragmenting as it tackles new technologies before perfecting older ones; Pyongyang is developing ballistic and cruise missiles; solid and liquid fuel technologies; working on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) before it successfully tests and deploys intermediate-range systems; and attempting to make road-mobile ICBMs before perfecting a static design. Essentially, Pyongyang is trying to do everything at once, and with minimal testing.
While previously content to threaten South Korea and most of Japan with hundreds of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, North Korea is now engaged in testing longer range systems such as the Unha (Paektusan/Taepodong) with an estimated range of 4,000-8,000 kilometers — though rarely and without success. [2] Pyongyang has also at least nominally displayed the KN-08, the design for which could have a range of 10,000 kilometers depending on payload. [3] However, it is very likely that the KN-08s displayed by Pyongyang on 15 April were "fakes;" what kind of fakes they might be remains heavily debated. While some researchers like Markus Schiller and Robert Schmucker argue that the missiles are complete fantasy, other researchers like Jeffrey Lewis and Nick Hansen see them as design mockups, much as was the case with the Taepodong ICBM. [4] However, more than the missiles' alleged range, it is the road-mobile design that raises concern in the United States and elsewhere. Just before leaving office, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made a now-not-so-cryptic comment:
"North Korea now constitutes a direct threat to the United States. The president told [China's] President Hu that last year. They are developing a road-mobile ICBM. I never would have dreamed they would go to a road-mobile before testing a static ICBM. It's a huge problem. As we've found out in a lot of places, finding mobile missiles is very tough." [5]
While the debate about the KN-08's "realness" has subsided pending more evidence, the debate about the vehicles on which the missiles were displayed remains very much alive. Transporter-Erector-Launchers (TELs) are the vehicles that transport, and eventually launch missiles. Countries such as China increase the survivability of their missile forces by making them road-mobile, and therefore easier to hide than missiles in fixed silos. North Korea is attempting to do the same with its own growing missile forces. In countries with established road-mobile programs, counting the number of missile launchers lends important clues to assessments of the country's missile capabilities.
A TEL is a specialized piece of equipment with varying degrees of complexity depending on the missile-type. Key components include the chassis — the strong and flexible undercarriage of the vehicle; specialized hydraulics for erecting and launching the missile; and systems to control the pressure of the tires to protect the missile on varied terrain. North Korea has a history of acquiring demilitarized vehicles and adapting them with its own erection and launching technology. [6] According to documents attributed to the U.S. State Department by Wikileaks, North Korea procures chassis abroad because they are too expensive and difficult for it to produce indigenously. [7]
Figure 1: North Korean Parade & Chinese-made WS51200 (Sources: KCNA and wstech.com.cn)
Within minutes of the broadcast of the 15 April parade footage, Chinese bloggers began posting images of a specialized off-road heavy-duty vehicle known as the WS51200 (see figure 1). The vehicle is produced by Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Company, Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), a Chinese state-owned enterprise. [8] Wanshan — based in Xiaogan, Hubei Province — is a large company under the supervisory control of the 9th Academy of CASIC, which oversees its parent company, the Sanjiang Space Industry Group. The company produces specialty vehicles and chassis for civilian and military applications, with total assets estimated at 1.1 billion yuan (approximately $172.5 million USD). [9] According to the Economy, Trade and Information Bureau of Yuan'an County, Wanshan had previously traded with North Korea as of 2009, but the Bureau does not specifically disclose the type of trade that occurred. [10]
Before Wanshan's website's sudden removal from the internet, the WS51200 was advertised as a civilian heavy-duty off-road vehicle with eight axles, an American Cummins KTTA19 C700 diesel engine, and a German ZF Friedrichshafen WSK440+16S251 automatic transmission. [11] While this vehicle is marketed for civilian applications such as hauling lumber, coal, and fuel, Wanshan produces other WS-series vehicles for use as TELs by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA). These vehicles support ballistic and cruise missiles, some of which were developed by Wanshan's parent company CASIC. The short-range Dong Feng-11 (DF-11) uses the 8x8 WS-2400 series TEL, as do some DF-15s (or alternatively the TAS5450 TEL), and the Dong Hai-10 cruise missile. The DF-21C uses the newer WS-2500 TEL. [12]
Figure 2: MZKT-79221 carrying the SS-27 Topol-M ICBM (Source: Wikipedia.org)
Wanshan rated the WS51200 as 122 tons in total weight, 20.11 meters long, 3.35 meters wide, and 3.35 meters high, with a wheel diameter of 1.6 meters. [13] Interestingly, analyst Nick Hansen assesses the 122 ton WS51200 vehicle to be oversized for North Korea's KN-08 design, which is estimated to weigh approximately 35 to 40 tons. [14] Rather, Hansen finds the WS51200 comparable to the MZKT-79221 vehicle used by Russia for its SS-27 Topol-M ICBM, a much more substantial and weighty missile (see figure 2). [15] The similarity is not a complete coincidence, because in 2006 Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Company, Ltd.'s parent company, Sanjiang Space Industry Group, set up a joint venture with Minsk Plant of Wheeled Carriers Belarus, which produces the MZKT-79221. [16] Perhaps North Korea felt comfortable with this design because it obtained Belarusian vehicles from the same design family in the early 2000s and modified them for use with its Musudan IRBM. [17] Similarly, this was a case of too much truck for the missile, as the 12 meter Musudan only uses a fraction of the 17 meter TEL. [18]
Wanshan's Export: Embarrassing Mistake or Calculated Sanctions Busting?
The apparent transaction was complex (see figure 3). Shortly after the first sighting of the TEL in the 15 April parade, a commenter on the Arms Control Wonk blog posted two links. The first was to an October 2010 China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) announcement of a WS51200 sale to a foreign party worth 30 million yuan (approximately $4.7 million USD). [19] The announcement went so far as to note the importance of developing the civilian trade of "military-civilian dual-use" technology [九院高度重视超重型越野车军民两用技术应用和民贸的开发工作]. [20] A second link, also from CASIC, noted that the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council reported in May 2011 on the successful delivery of WS51200 vehicles to an unnamed customer, who was satisfied with the vehicles' performance and wished to continue cooperation. [21]
In June 2012, the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported that Japanese officials from the 5th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters Based in Kobe, operating on intelligence from Japan, South Korea, and the United States, boarded the ship Harmony Wish on 3 October 2011 at Osaka Port. [22] Documents recovered from the ship indicated that a North Korean front company known as Rimmok General Trading solicited the WS51200 vehicles from Wuhan Sanjiang Import & Export Co. based in China. [23] According to the documents, four WS51200 were delivered to North Korea after completion in May 2011, and four more were delivered in August 2011. This documents the transfer of eight vehicles, six of which were most likely on display in Pyongyang’s 15 April 2012 parade. [24]
Figure 3: Diagram of the Alleged Transaction (Source: CNS)
The Harmony Wish — a Cambodian-flagged ship operated by a Chinese company named Dalian Qingsong Co. with a Chinese and Burmese crew — delivered the August 2011 shipment of four WS51200 vehicles. [25] The ship left Shanghai, China on 1 August 2011 and arrived at the Port of Nampho in North Korea on 4 August 2011. [26]
The Chinese government has been tightlipped about the transaction. In public statements, Beijing has categorically denied that its enterprises, "exported any items prohibited by relevant UN Security Council resolutions and Chinese laws and regulations," to the DPRK. [27] However, some details about the transaction have surfaced, and Chinese leaders have reportedly talked with some outside governments about these allegations. [28] Chinese officials have also asserted that the exported vehicles "were intended for civilian use to mainly transport large pieces of lumber." [29] According to a June 2012 blog post by Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the intended end-user was "the DPRK Ministry of Forestry, a government agency that was squarely responsible for civilian-use activities having to do with public welfare and economic development and which had not been previously identified as a player in North Korea's ballistic missile or nuclear programs." [30] Despite the general dearth of economic activities in North Korea, the country was experiencing a (relative) construction boom in 2011 leading up to Kim Il Sung's centennial celebrations, which fueled growth in the forestry sector. [31]
There is little information about Wanshan's previous export activities. It is possible that if Wanshan was indeed already engaged in the trade of heavy-duty off-road vehicles with a party or parties in North Korea by 2009, that it became lax on the compliance side of the relationship, or engaged in willful blindness at the prospect of a multi-million dollar sale. However, a previous trade relationship with North Korea also makes it less likely that inexperience or naiveté played a role. Regardless, given that Wanshan's website disappeared precipitously from the worldwide web in the days after the parade, it seems likely that a powerful entity in China is looking into the case.
China is obliged by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to prevent the transfer of items and technology that could support North Korea's missile program. UNSC Resolution 1718, specifically decides that,
"all Member States shall prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the DPRK, through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in their territories, of any… items, materials, equipment, goods and technology, determined by the Security Council or the Committee, which could contribute to DPRK's nuclear-related, ballistic missile-related or other weapons of mass destruction-related programmes." [32]
UNSC Resolution 1874 further reinforces and expands on the decision. Both of the North Korea-specific resolutions were drafted in response to Pyongyang's missile and nuclear tests, and as a member of the Security Council China played a central role in developing the texts.
While China is not yet a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it maintains its own domestic export control regulations and a control list for missile-related materials that very closely resembles the MTCR list. The control list includes, "vehicles designed or modified for the transport, handling, control, activation and launching of the systems in Item 1," which are: "ballistic missiles, space launch vehicles, sounding rockets, cruise missile and unmanned air vehicles that can be used to deliver at least a 500 kg payload to a range of at least 300 km." [33] Exports of items on this control list are restricted and require export licenses. Therefore, if Wanshan believed the item to be a military export, it would have had to apply for export per "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Export Control of Missiles and Missile-related Items and Technologies."
Even if Wanshan believed the vehicle to be a dual-use item intended for lumber, China requires exporters to follow the "Measures for the Administration on Import and Export License for Dual-use Items and Technologies," as administered by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM). [34] This regulation includes a control list (in Chinese), which under "Ground Equipment" includes a provision for vehicles which verbatim duplicates the description listed above for regular missile-related exports. [35]
Additionally, China's export controls include a catch-all requirement that notes "where the exporter knows or should know" that the commodity it is exporting may "have the risk of being used in weapons of mass destruction and their related means of delivery, an export license shall be applied for towards the items and technologies concerned, whether included in the Controlling List or not, and an export license for dual-use items and technologies shall be handled in accordance with these Measures." [36]
It is unlikely that Wanshan could be unaware of these export requirements. According to the Ministry of Commerce, "export control regulations of China explicitly states that exporting enterprises should establish and improve the internal control mechanism for dual-use items and technologies." [37] A company as large and well-connected as Wanshan should indeed have such an internal compliance program, and should be well-aware of the export requirements for vehicles such as the WS51200, given that other WS-series vehicles are used as missile TELs by the Chinese military.
Some Explaining to Do: China's Underwhelming Transparency with the International Community
In the days after the 15 April parade, the UN Security Council committed to investigate the case. However, a senior official was quoted as saying that "political pressure not to implicate China in sanctions infringements may limit the panel's room to maneuver." [38] At the same time, the UNSCR 1874 Panel of Experts (POE) was preparing its 2012 annual report. According to Mark Hibbs, Beijing "would not accept draft reporting by the POE concerning equipment from China that showed up during a well-publicized military parade in Pyongyang earlier this year and was identified as TELs for new North Korean ballistic missiles." [39] Indeed, the POE report includes a photo of the KN-08 missile on its TEL, but makes no mention of the origin of the vehicle. [40]
It is not in China's strategic interests to support a road-mobile ICBM force in North Korea. China's goal on the Korean Peninsula is stability, because its greatest fear is the humanitarian disaster of a collapsed North Korea, followed closely by the possibility of sharing a border with a unified Korea allied with the United States. Supporting North Korea's ICBM program would undermine these goals, making it likely the TEL transfer was either accidental or the decision of a small number of individuals who prioritized their financial enrichment over larger Chinese strategic goals.
Unfortunately, until authorities in Beijing choose to disclose more public details on this case, it will be difficult to assess the full story and the extent to which the state-owned companies involved knowingly violated Chinese export controls and UN sanctions. If Wanshan engaged in willful blindness, this puts China and its state-owned enterprises in a very embarrassing position. Regardless, it is in China's best interests to actively participate in the investigation of the transaction. All members of the Security Council have faced embarrassment over export control violations, some of which were more severe than the transfer of the eight TELs. Regrettably, absent more transparency from Beijing, China will continue to leave itself open to critics who insinuate that the country is explicitly supporting North Korea's missile program to the detriment of its international reputation and regional relationships. If the export was not sanctioned by the Chinese government, it will remain unclear whether Beijing is taking steps to close the loopholes in its dual-use export controls that made possible the transfer. And more broadly, useful lessons that can be used to strengthen regional and international dual-use control efforts will remain undisclosed, aiding neither Chinese nor international security.
Sources:
[1] See: Jeffrey Lewis, "Real Fake Missiles?," Arms Control Wonk, 1 May 2012, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com.
[2] Lee Sangheon, "김태영 국방 장관 “북, IRBM 등 미사일 1천여기 보유" [North Korea Possesses 1,000 Missiles Including IRBM, Says Defense Minister Kim Tae-young]," The Hankyoreh, 17 March 2010, www.hani.co.kr.
[3] "Unha (Paektusan)," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, 10 May 2012; Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[4] Lewis argues that the Taepodong also had similar mockups called "missile simulators" by the U.S.: Jeffrey Lewis, "Real Fake Missiles?," Arms Control Wonk, 1 May 2012, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com; Hansen argues that North Korea would not have invested so many resources on a "fake" missile: Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org; Schiller and Schmucker's articles: Markus Schiller and Robert H. Schmucker, "A Dog and Pony Show: North Korea's New ICBM," Schmucker Technologie, 18 April 2012, via: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com; Markus Schiller and Robert H. Schmucker, "Assumed KN-08 Technology: Addendum to the April 18, 2012 Paper 'A Dog and Pony Show'," Schmucker Technologie, 26 April 2012, via: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com.
[5] John Barry, "The Defense Secretary's Exit Interview," Newsweek, 21 June 2011, www.thedailybeast.com; See also: Robert Gates, "The 10th IISS Asia Security Summit, The Shangri-La Dialogue, First Plenary Session Q&A," The International Institute for Strategic Studies, 4 June 2011, www.iiss.org.
[6] Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[7] "Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR): North Korea's Missile Program," Wikileaks id #228552, 11 July 2011, http://wikileaks.org, alleged to be a diplomatic cable of the U.S. Department of State, dated 6 October 2009.
[8] Note: Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co. Ltd's website: www.wstech.com.cn has has since been taken offline.
[9] "湖北三江航天万山特种车辆有限公司 [Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Company, Ltd.]," China Sanjiang Space Group, 31 March 2011, www.cssg.com.cn.
[10] "湖北三江航天万山特种车辆有限公司 [Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Company, Ltd.]," Yuan'an County Economy, Trade and Information Bureau, 23 July 2009, http://jjsw.yuanan.gov.cn.
[11] Note: Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co. Ltd's website: www.wstech.com.cn has has since been taken offline.
[12] Sean O'Connor, "The PLA's Second Artillery Corps," I&A, Vol. 1, No. 11, December 2011.
[13] Note: Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co. Ltd's website: www.wstech.com.cn has has since been taken offline.
[14] Nick Hansen estimates that the KN-08 and the launching and erecting modifications total only 45-50 tons. Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[15] Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[16] "Sanjiang Company, Minsk Plant of Wheeled Carriers to Set up Joint Venture in Belarus," Belarusian Telegraph Agency, 14 November 2006, http://news.belta.by; "Супермашины для «Темпа», «Тополя» и «Целины» [The Super-machines of the Tempa, Topol, and Tselin Transporters]," VOLAT, 2011, www.mzkt.by.
[17] Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[18] Nick Hansen, "North Korea's New Long-range Missile: Fact or Fiction?," 38 North, 4 May 2012, http://38north.org.
[19] Commenter "Koxinga," 15 April 2012, on Joshua Pollack, "North Korea's ICBM Unveiled," Arms Control Wonk, 15 April 2012, http://pollack.armscontrolwonk.com.
[20] Zhang Fengyi, "九院: 首次获大型非公路运输车批量出口订单 [9th Academy: First Time Heavy-Duty Off-Road Vehicle Bulk Export Order]," ed. Hai Rong, China Aerospace & Industry Corp., 19 October 2010, www.casic.com.cn.
[21] "国资委网站：中国航天科工研制成功国内最大越野运输车 [State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Website: CASIC Successfully Develops the Nation's Largest Off-Road Vehicle]," China Aerospace & Industry Corp., 26 May 2011, www.casic.com.cn; "中国航天科工研制成功国内最大越野运输车 [CASIC Successfully Develops the Nation's Largest Off-Road Vehicle]," State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, 26 May 2011, www.sasac.gov.cn.
[22] "Document Confirms Chinese Firm Sold Missile Transport Vehicles to N. Korea," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, http://ajw.asahi.com. Unfortunately, the English version of the article erroneously refers to China Aerospace & Industry Corp. as China Aerospace & Technology Corp., please see the Japanese version of the article for the correct name: "中国、北朝鮮に軍用車両 昨年８月 安保理決議に違反 [China Transfers Military Vehicles to North Korea in August in Violation of Security Council Resolution]," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, www.asahi.com.
[23] "中国、北朝鮮に軍用車両 昨年８月 安保理決議に違反 [China Transfers Military Vehicles to North Korea in August in Violation of Security Council Resolution]," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, www.asahi.com.
[24] "Document Confirms Chinese Firm Sold Missile Transport Vehicles to N. Korea," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, http://ajw.asahi.com. Unfortunately, the English version of the article erroneously refers to China Aerospace & Industry Corp. as China Aerospace & Technology Corp., please see the Japanese version of the article for the correct name: "中国、北朝鮮に軍用車両 昨年８月 安保理決議に違反 [China Transfers Military Vehicles to North Korea in August in Violation of Security Council Resolution]," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, www.asahi.com.
[25] Asahi notes that the name of the Chinese shipping firm Dalian Qingsong Co. is similar to that of a North Korean entity Qingsong Group which was sanctioned in May 2012 in response to North Korea's failed launch of the Unha-3. However, the name Qingsong (Green Pine) is a common name in China. Yoshihiro Makino, "Chinese Shipper May Have Ties to N. Korean Arms Dealer," Asahi Shimbun, 25 June 2012, http://ajw.asahi.com.
[26] "Document Confirms Chinese Firm Sold Missile Transport Vehicles to N. Korea," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, http://ajw.asahi.com. Unfortunately, the English version of the article erroneously refers to China Aerospace & Industry Corp. as China Aerospace & Technology Corp., please see the Japanese version of the article for the correct name: "中国、北朝鮮に軍用車両 昨年８月 安保理決議に違反 [China Transfers Military Vehicles to North Korea in August in Violation of Security Council Resolution]," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, www.asahi.com.
[27] "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Liu Weimin's Regular Press Conference on June 13, 2012," Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 14 June 2012, www.fmprc.gov.cn.
[28] Mark Hibbs, "China and the POE DPRK Report," Arms Control Wonk, 2 July 2012, http://hibbs.armscontrolwonk.com.
[29] "Document Confirms Chinese Firm Sold Missile Transport Vehicles to N. Korea," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, http://ajw.asahi.com. Unfortunately, the English version of the article erroneously refers to China Aerospace & Industry Corp. as China Aerospace & Technology Corp., please see the Japanese version of the article for the correct name: "中国、北朝鮮に軍用車両 昨年８月 安保理決議に違反 [China Transfers Military Vehicles to North Korea in August in Violation of Security Council Resolution]," Asahi Shimbun, 13 June 2012, www.asahi.com.
[30] Mark Hibbs, "China and the POE DPRK Report," Arms Control Wonk, 2 July 2012, http://hibbs.armscontrolwonk.com.
[31] Christine Kim, "North Korean Economy Posts Rare Growth in 2011 – Seoul," Reuters, 7 July 2012, www.reuters.com.
[32] United Nations Security Council, "Resolution 1718 (2006)," 14 October 2006, www.un.org.
[33] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Export Control of Missiles and Missile-related Items and Technologies," 13 September 2007, http://cys2.mofcom.gov.cn.
[34] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "Measures for the Administration on Import and Export License for Dual-use Items and Technologies," 31 December 2005, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn.
[35] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "商务部、海关总署公告2011年第101号 发布«两用物项和技术进出口许可证管理目录»[Announcement No. 101, 2011 of the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China on the Catalogue of Dual-Use Items and Technologies Subject to Import and Export License Administration]," 31 December 2011, www.mofcom.gov.cn; link to Excel control list at bottom "两用物项和技术进出口许可证管理目录."
[36] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "Measures for the Administration on Import and Export License for Dual-use Items and Technologies," 31 December 2005, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn.
[37] Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, "MOFCOM Guideline on Internal Export Control Mechanism for "Dual-Use" Enterprises," 14 September 2007, http://xxhs2.mofcom.gov.cn.
[38] James Hardy, "Update: UNSC Investigating Chinese Link to North Korean TEL," Jane's Defence Weekly, 20 April 2012.
[39] Mark Hibbs, "China and the POE DPRK Report," Arms Control Wonk, 2 July 2012, http://hibbs.armscontrolwonk.com.
[40] United Nations Security Council, "Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009)," S/2012/422, 14 June 2012, www.un.org. For additional analysis, see: Jeffrey Lewis, "Assessing the DPRK Panel of Experts," 38 North, 17 July 2012, http://38north.org.
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By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park
SEOUL | Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:45am EST
(Reuters) - North Korea has started to dismantle a controversial long-range rocket on its launch pad in an apparent move to fix a technical problem but still looks likely to go ahead with the launch, South Korean news reports and experts said on Tuesday.
North Korea says the launch is to put a weather satellite in orbit but critics say it is aimed at nurturing the kind of technology needed to mount a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile.
When the first reports emerged that the rocket parts were being taken down, there was speculation the North might abandon the launch altogether, but experts said the construction of the rocket meant that it needed to be removed from its gantry.
"For North Korean rockets, it's the only way to repair them because they build the rocket stage by stage," said Kwon Se-jin, a rocket expert at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology in Daejeon, South Korea.
North Korea said on Monday that the launch window had been extended by a week due to technical problems.
"So as it had announced, if the North has a problem with the first-stage control module, it has to replace it and take down (the rocket) from the top," said Kwon.
The launch has been timed to coincide with the first anniversary of the death of former leader Kim Jong-il after a failed launch in April. It also comes as Japan and South Korea, long-time foes of the North, are holding elections.
North Korea is banned from testing missile or nuclear technology under U.N. sanctions imposed after its 2006 and 2009 nuclear weapons tests, and the United States, South Korea and Japan have condemned the current launch.
Even China, the one major diplomatic backer of isolated and impoverished North Korea, has expressed "deep concern" over the planned launch.
South Korean media reported on Tuesday that satellite images showed the rocket was being taken down.
"We have captured indications that a part of the rocket is being disassembled from the launch pad in Tongchang-ri," Yonhap news agency quoted a South Korean government source as saying.
The name refers to the North's new test site in its western region close to the border with China.
"There is no change to the North's will to fire the rocket," another source was quoted as saying by Yonhap.
Officials at South Korea's military and its foreign and defense ministries could not confirm the reports.
North Korea is assiduous in meeting its international obligations on reporting long-range rocket launches and notified international maritime and aviation bodies of its plans last week.
It was impossible to confirm the media reports in what is one of the most closed and secretive states on Earth.
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
North Korea removes rocket from launch pad
North Korea has pulled down the rocket from the launch pad to fix technical problems AFP Tweet
First Published: Tue, Dec 11 2012. 05 57 PM IST
New leader Kim Jong-Un is believed to be extremely keen that the launch falls around the first anniversary of the death of his father and former leader Kim Jong-Il on 17 December. Photo: AFP Also Read
Seoul: North Korea’s heavily-criticized long range rocket launch looked set for a lengthy delay Tuesday, with reports that the entire rocket had been removed from the launch pad for repair.
According to analysis of the latest satellite imagery, the entire three-stage Unha-3 carrier has been taken down and moved to a nearby assembly facility, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted a person familiar with the as saying.
“It seems that North Korea has pulled down the rocket from the launch pad to fix technical problems,” these people said. Local radio and TV stations carried similar reports.
The South Korean defence ministry refused to confirm the reports which, if true, would signal a considerable delay in the launch schedule.
North Korea says the rocket is being used to put a satellite into orbit, but the US and its allies insist the launch is a disguised ballistic missile test that violates UN resolutions.
North Korea had originally provided a 10 December to 22 December window for launching the rocket, but extended that by another week on Monday when a “technical deficiency” was discovered in the first-stage engine.
Pyongyang was still expected to go ahead with a launch after repair works are completed the person familiar with the matter said.
The North’s decision to try and launch the rocket in winter has led analysts to suggest a political imperative behind the timing, which may have overruled technical considerations.
New leader Kim Jong-Un is believed to be extremely keen that the launch falls around the first anniversary of the death of his father and former leader Kim Jong-Il on 17 December.
The possibility that the launch has been rushed has been backed by missile experts, sceptical that the problem which resulted in the failure of the North’s last rocket launch in April could have been resolved in just eight months.
North Korea said Monday that it had experienced especially cold weather in the three days leading to the opening of the launch window on 10 December.
State media quoted Ri Chol-Su, vice-director of the Central Meteorological Institute, as saying temperatures had dropped to minus 17 Celsius (1.4F) in western coastal areas where the launch centre is located.
North Korea is banned from conducting missile tests under UN resolutions triggered by Pyongyang’s two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
The latest planned launch has been condemned by the United Nations, as well as the United States and its main military allies in Asia, Japan and South Korea.
Russia has joined international calls for Pyongyang to cancel the mission, while China, North Korea’s sole major ally and its biggest trade partner and aid provider, has expressed concern.
EU foreign ministers said Monday that an eventual launch would be a “provocative act” in breach of UN resolutions and require an international response.
UN diplomats inside and outside the Security Council have started consultations behind the scenes on what action to take if Pyongyang goes ahead with the launch.
According to Japanese reports, Japan, the US and South Korea have agreed to demand the UN Security Council strengthen sanctions on North Korea to levels that match those on Iran.
That would include increasing the list of financial institutions, entities and individuals subject to asset freezes.
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
North Korea Could Be Delaying Its Missile Test For All The Right Reasons
Robert Johnson | 53 minutes ago | 186 |
North Korea's attempting to launch a long range missile again this year after an inglorious failure befell last year's effort.
Maybe it's that effort which is prompting the press to now interpret the North's decision to halt the current launch, pull the rocket apart, and make adjustments as a laughable indication of the failure to come.
But there are a couple of reasons why this year's launch may have a better chance of success than the one's that came before.
First, the proof that North Korea understands its technological limitations was confirmed in July of 2012 when two agents of the DPRK were arrested in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.
Ukraine is the former Soviet country where 70 percent of all the Kremlin's Cold War ballistic missile production took place. Dnipropetrovsk, specifically, is the heart of that effort and was closed off to the outside world from World War II to 1991. In Dnipropetrovsk is a massive solid-fuel missile plant called Yuzmash, along with scholars and students exercising some of the sharpest aerospace engineering minds in the world.
The North Koreans were caught photographing some of these students PhD dissertations marked "Secret" that held "progressive technologies in building rocket systems, spacecraft, liquid-fuel engines, rocket fuel supply systems, and other know how," according to the Kiev Post.
If two DPRK agents were caught it seems safe to assume there were a handful of others that were not caught and returned to Pyongyang with the information they sought.
Even if there weren't, and the only two spies sent to glean needed missile tech were busted by the Ukraine Security Service, Iran is reportedly on hand for this year's launch.
Iran has enjoyed the fruits of Chinese ballistic missile research since at least the mid-90s and there's little reason to imagine Tehran would not do what it could to help the North with this launch.
Reuters reported the Iranians were on site December 2, but only as the launch date was extended and the rocket brought down has Tehran denied a presence on the ground.
Regardless, delaying a rocket launch rather than plowing forth unaware of impending problems could reveal a sophistication and understanding that was not a part of North Korea's previous long range ballistic missile launches.
And even if the delay is just the correction of an obvious problem, the care it implies suggests this launch might have a better chance of success than those before it.
Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
Tehran denies Iranian missile experts in North Korea
(AFP) – 3 hours ago
TEHRAN — Iran on Tuesday denied a South Korean report that its missile experts were in North Korea offering technical assistance for the planned launch of a long-range rocket.
"This issue is utterly not true," Ramin Mehmanparast, foreign ministry spokesman told reporters.
"The claim made regarding missile and nuclear cooperation is baseless propaganda and they are trying to create fear so they can undermine our relations with others," he added.
Mehmanparast said that during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s "there was military cooperation, but after the war we continued our political, economic and humanitarian ties and still have them in these fields."
On Monday, Chosun Ilbo newspaper said a group of Iranian missile experts was in North Korea offering technical assistance for the planned launch of a rocket which Pyongyang terms a peaceful mission aimed at putting a satellite in orbit.
The Iranians were invited after North Korea's last rocket launch in April ended in failure, the newspaper said, citing a Seoul government official.
Earlier this month, Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted a Western diplomatic source as saying Iran had stationed defence personnel in North Korea since October to strengthen cooperation in missile and nuclear development.
North Korea and Iran are both subject to international sanctions over their nuclear activities and their governments share a deep hostility towards the United States.
Leaked US diplomatic cables in 2010 showed that US officials believe Iran has acquired ballistic missile parts from North Korea. A 2011 UN sanctions report said the two countries were suspected of sharing ballistic missile technology.
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
Japan poised to shoot down North Korean missile
The Japanese government has ordered its military to shoot down the missile that is expected to be launched by North Korea as early as Monday.
North Korea has installed the first stage of a long-range rocket it plans to launch this month on the launch pad, defying international calls to cancel the mission, a report said on Monday.
By Julian Ryall in Tokyo
3:00PM GMT 07 Dec 2012
The order to destroy the missile should any part of it threaten to fall onto Japanese territory was issued after a meeting of the Security Council of Japan met and was informed that North Korea has begun filling a fuel tank alongside the launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in preparation for the launch.
Japan has already deployed Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile batteries in Tokyo, as well as in Okinawa and at locations along the northern and western coasts facing the Korean Peninsula.
Three Japanese destroyers equipped with the advanced Aegis detect-and-destroy weapons system have been deployed in the Sea of Japan. The US has also stationed warships in the area to monitor the launch.
New satellite images released on Friday indicate that snow may have slowed the preparations, but Pyongyang shouuld still be ready for liftoff starting on Monday.
Pyongyang claims the launch is an attempt to put an earth-observation satellite into orbit. But analysts and foreign governments share the belief that the it is part of North Korea’s development of long-range missiles.
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The head of US forces in Japan, Lt. Gen. Salvatore Angelella, said on Thursday that the launch threatens the stability of the region.
“This is a very dangerous situation and we do not support those actions by North Korea,” he said. “We are monitoring the situation closely.”
The government and military forces in South Korea have been placed on heightened alert, while the Philippines has expressed “serious concern” that the missile will violate resolution by the United Nations Security Council and called on Pyongyang “to reconsider its planned launch and abide by these resolutions, which call for the abandonment of its ballistic missile programme in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner.”
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
6 December 2012 Last updated at 23:46 ET
North Korea's missile programme
North Korea is believed to have more than 1,000 missiles of varying capabilities, including long-range missiles which could one day strike the US.
Pyongyang's programme has progressed over the last few decades from tactical artillery rockets in the 1960s and 70s to short*-range and medium-range ballistic missiles in the 1980s and 90s. Systems capable of greater ranges are understood to be under research and development.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think-tank, some of North Korea's missiles also have the capability to carry nuclear warheads. However, the country is not yet thought to have developed such warheads.
The country's missile programme has mainly been developed from the Scud.
It first obtained tactical missiles from the Soviet Union as early as 1969, but its first Scuds reportedly came via Egypt in 1976. Egypt is believed to have supplied North Korea with missiles and designs in return for its support against Israel in the Yom Kippur War.
By 1984, North Korea was building its own Scuds, the Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6, as well as a medium-range missile, the Nodong. Its latest missile combines these technologies to give a long-range missile, the Taepodong.
In 2006 it test-fired a Taepodong-2 missile, which experts say could have a range of many thousands of miles, and rockets with related technology in 2009 and 2012. All three launches ended in failure. Short range missiles
North Korea is believed to be in possession of a variety of short-range missiles, such as the KN-02, which can reach up to 120km and could target military installations in neighbouring South Korea.
The Hwasong-5 and Hwasong-6, also known as Scud-B and C, have longer ranges of 300km and 500km respectively, according to the US Center for Nonproliferation Studies. These missiles can deliver conventional warheads, but may also have biological, chemical and nuclear capabilities.
The Hwasong-5 and 6 have both been tested and deployed, defence experts believe, and would enable North Korea to strike any area in South Korea.
Relations between the two Koreas are fraught and they remain, technically, in a state of war. The two countries never signed a peace treaty after an armistice ended their 1950-53 conflict.
They are separated by one of the world's most heavily fortified borders and both have strong military capabilities. Nodong missile
North Korea went on to embark on a programme in the late 1980s to build a new missile, known as the Nodong, with a range of 1,000km. Its likely target is Japan.
But, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, little is actually known about the development, production, and deployment of the Nodong.
The institute believes the weapon is not accurate enough for effective use against military targets, such as US military bases in Japan.
A March 2006 report by the US Center for Non-proliferation Studies, concluded it had a "circular error probable" of 2km to 4km, meaning that half the missiles fired would fall outside a circle of that radius.
Analysts therefore believe that should the Nodong be used as a weapon against Japan, it could lead to high levels of civilian casualties. Musudan missile
The Musudan, also known as the Nodong-B or the Taepodong-X, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile. Its likely targets are Okinawa, Japan, and US bases in the Pacific.
Range estimates differ dramatically. Israeli intelligence believes they have a 2,500km range while the US Missile Defense Agency estimates they have a range of 3,200km; other sources put the upper limit at 4,000km.
These differences are due in large part to the fact that the missile has never been tested publicly, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Its payload is also unknown. Taepodong-1 and 2 missiles (including the Unha space launcher)
The Taepodong-1 - known as Paektusan-1 in North Korea - was the country's first multi-stage missile.
Based on satellite photographs, independent think-tank the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) believes the first stage is a Nodong missile and the second stage a Hwasong-6. Continue reading the main storyMissile ranges
It has an estimated range of 2,200km, but is understood to be even less accurate than the Nodong.
The Taepodong-1 is understood to have test flown once in August 1998 as a space launcher. Instead of a normal ballistic missile payload, the missile carried a third stage that was meant to send a small satellite into low Earth orbit.
The FAS believes that although the first two stages worked, the third stage did not function correctly and no satellite entered orbit. The federation also says it is possible the Taepodong-1 was always meant as a space launcher and was never intended to be an intermediate range military missile.
The Taepodong-2 - or Paektusan-2 - is also a two to three-stage ballistic missile, but is a significant advance on the Taepodong-1. Its range has been estimated at anything between 5,000-15,000km. The Center for Nonproliferation Studies puts the figure at a maximum estimated 6,000km.
Taepodong-2 and its technology have been flight tested three times, in 2006, 2009 and 2012. It failed to perform on all occasions.
In the early morning of 5 July 2006 (still 4 July in the US), it flew only 42 seconds before exploding - according to US sources.
Three-stage space launcher versions of the Taepodong-2 were then used in failed attempts to send a satellite into space in April 2009 and April 2012. These launches were condemned by the US and South Korea, among others, as covers for a long-range missile tests. North Korea refers to the space launcher version of the Taepodong-2 as Unha - Korean for galaxy - and describes it as a "carrier rocket".
Although space launches and missile launches follow slightly different trajectories and the rocket may be optimised for one purpose or the other, the basic technology used is the same. This includes the structure, engines, and fuel.
If the Taepodong-2 were successfully launched and it reached its maximum estimated range, its increased power could put Australia and parts of the US, among other countries, within range.
BRUSSELS — EU foreign ministers said Dec. 10 that a planned missile launch by North Korea would be a “provocative act” in breach of U.N. resolutions and require an international response.
They said North Korea’s plan to launch a satellite would in effect be a ballistic missile test and break U.N. resolutions against Pyongyang developing such technology given its nuclear weapons drive.
A launch would directly contravene “the international community’s unified call not to conduct such launches,” a statement said after a day-long foreign ministers meeting in Brussels.
“The EU would consider such a launch a provocative act, jeopardizing diplomatic efforts in the pursuit of lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and the broader region,” it said.
“It would merit a clear international response, in conjunction with U.N. Security Council deliberations, including possible restrictive measures,” it added, without specifying what measures might be taken.
The EU called on North Korea not to conduct the launch and to re-engage with the international community.
On Dec. 10, North Korea, which had set the launch for Dec. 10-22, extended the timetable by one week due to technical problems but stressed it was pushing on with the mission in the face of international condemnation.
Many countries, led by United States and its key Asian allies South Korea and Japan, have condemned the planned launch as a disguised ballistic missile test that violates U.N. resolutions passed after Pyongyang’s two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
N. Korea launches satellite, in defiance of sanctions and pressure from U.S., allies
Video: North Koreans danced in the streets of their capital Wednesday after the regime of young leader Kim Jong Un successfully fired a long-range rocket, defying international warnings.
By Chico Harlan, Updated: Wednesday, December 12, 7:34 AM
TOKYO — North Korea successfully launched a satellite into orbit on Wednesday, showing off an improving weapons program that Washington and its allies have struggled to curb despite heavy international sanctions.
Though the Unha-3 rocket did not carry a warhead, it relied on technology similar to that of a long-range missile, leading Washington, Seoul and Tokyo to describe the launch as the de facto test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that violated U.N. Security Council resolutions.
Max Fisher DEC 11
By 2030, three of the world's top four powers could be Asian and none of them European.
Officials in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington all promised a stern response. National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said the United States would work with other nations, as well as the United Nations, to pursue “appropriate action.”
The incident illustrates what analysts described as the growing security risk posed by North Korea, as well as the increasing challenge facing Western countries as they search for ways to prevent such actions by the reclusive communist country.
Pyongyang’s family-run government is already cut off economically from almost every country but China. United Nations sanctions have made it more difficult for the North to launder its illicit money, import its luxury goods and acquire some weapons materials. But U.N. sanctions and bans have not stifled North Korean missile launches, nuclear tests or weapons trades.
Instead, the North does as it pleases, relying on domestic and illegally imported technology, in part because it has little fear about further international condemnation, some security analysts said.
North Korea says its satellite-launching program is about space research, not weapons technology, and is permissible under an international space treaty.
“The right to use outer space for peaceful purposes is universally recognized by international law, and it reflects the unanimous will of the international community,” North Korea’s state-run news agency quoted its Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying Wednesday.
“No matter what others say, we will continue to exercise our legitimate right to launch satellites and thus actively contribute to the economic construction and improvement of the standard of people’s living while conquering space.”
Some U.S. officials call Pyongyang their most vexing diplomatic challenge. Over the last 20 years, various U.S. governments have tried to pressure the North, engage with it, approach it one-on-one, and deal with it in groups that include China, Russia, South Korea and Japan.
President Obama’s approach to the North is often described as “strategic patience” — essentially, using sanctions while also pushing leader Kim Jong Eun to cease his bad behavior, with the promise of engagement if he does.
Critics of the Obama administration said Wednesday that North Korea’s launch should prompt the White House to rethink its strategy and give Pyongyang greater attention.
“The Obama administration’s approach continues to be unimaginative and moribund,” Rep. Ed Royce (R-Calif.), the incoming chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said in a statement. “We can either take a different approach, or watch as the North Korean threat to the region and the U.S. grows.”
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
North Korea launches rocket , raising nuclear arms stakes
By Jack Kim and Mayumi Negishi
SEOUL/TOKYO | Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:26am EST
(Reuters) - North Korea successfully launched a rocket on Wednesday, boosting the credentials of its new leader and stepping up the threat the isolated and impoverished state poses to opponents.
The rocket, which North Korea says put a weather satellite into orbit, has been labeled by the United States, South Korea and Japan as a test of technology that could one day deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting targets as far away as the continental United States.
"The satellite has entered the planned orbit," a North Korean television news reader clad in traditional Korean garb announced, after which the station played patriotic songs with the lyrics "Chosun (Korea) does what it says".
The rocket was launched just before 10 a.m. (0100 GMT), according to defense officials in South Korea and Japan, and was more successful than a rocket launched in April that flew for less than two minutes.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said that it "deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit", the first time an independent body has verified North Korean claims.
North Korea followed what it said was a similar successful launch in 2009 with a nuclear test that prompted the U.N. Security Council to stiffen sanctions that it originally imposed in 2006 after the North's first nuclear test.
North Korea is banned from developing nuclear and missile-related technology under U.N. resolutions, although Kim Jong-un, the youthful head of state who took power a year ago, is believed to have continued the state's "military first" programs put in place by his late father, Kim Jong-Il.
North Korea hailed the launch as celebrating the prowess of all three members of the Kim family to rule since it was founded in 1948.
"At a time when great yearnings and reverence for Kim Jong-il pervade the whole country, its scientists and technicians brilliantly carried out his behests to launch a scientific and technological satellite in 2012, the year marking the 100th birth anniversary of President Kim Il Sung," its KCNA news agency said. Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather, was North Korea's first leader.
The United States condemned the launch as "provocative" and a breach of U.N. rules, while Japan's U.N. envoy called for a Security Council meeting. However, diplomats say further tough sanctions are unlikely from the Security Council as China, the North's only major ally, will oppose them.
"The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions have consequences," the White House said in a statement.
U.S. intelligence has linked North Korea with missile shipments to Iran. Newspapers in Japan and South Korea have reported that Iranian observers were in the North for the launch, something Iran has denied.
Japan's likely next prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who is leading in opinion polls ahead of an election on Sunday and who is known as a hawk on North Korea, called on the United Nations to adopt a resolution "strongly criticizing" Pyongyang.
A North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated that the rocket was a "peaceful project".
"The attempt to see our satellite launch as a long-range missile launch for military purposes comes from hostile perception that tries to designate us a cause for security tension," KCNA cited the spokesman as saying.
"STUMBLING BLOCK"
China had expressed "deep concern" prior to the launch which was announced a day after a top politburo member, representing new Chinese leader Xi Jinping, met Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang.
On Wednesday, its tone was measured, regretting the launch but calling for restraint on any counter-measures, in line with a policy of effectively vetoing tougher sanctions.
"China believes the Security Council's response should be cautious and moderate, protect the overall peaceful and stable situation on the Korean peninsula, and avoid an escalation," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told journalists.
Bruce Klingner, a Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, said: "China has been the stumbling block to firmer U.N. action and we'll have to see if the new leadership is any different than its predecessors."
A senior adviser to South Korea's president said last week it was unlikely there would be action from the United Nations and Seoul would expect its allies to tighten sanctions unilaterally.
Kim Jong-un, believed to be 29 years old, took power when his father died on December 17 last year and experts believe the launch was intended to commemorate the first anniversary of his death. The April launch was timed for the centennial of the birth of Kim Il Sung.
Wednesday's success puts the North ahead of the South which has not managed to get a rocket off the ground.
"This is a considerable boost in establishing the rule of Kim Jong-un," said Cho Min, an expert at the Korea Institute of National Unification.
There have been few indications the secretive and impoverished state, where the United Nations estimates a third of people are malnourished, has made any advances in opening up economically over the past year.
North Korea remains reliant on minerals exports to China and remittances from tens of thousands of its workers overseas.
Many of its 22 million people need handouts from defectors, who have escaped to South Korea, for basic medicines.
Given the puny size of its economy - per capita income is less than $2,000 a year - one of the few ways the North can attract world attention is by emphasizing its military threat.
It wants the United States to resume aid and to recognize it diplomatically, although the April launch scuppered a planned food deal.
The North is believed to be some years away from developing a functioning nuclear warhead although it may have enough plutonium for about half a dozen nuclear bombs, according to nuclear experts.
It has also been enriching uranium, which would give it a second path to nuclear weapons as it sits on big natural uranium reserves.
"A successful launch puts North Korea closer to the capability to deploy a weaponized missile," said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii.
"But this would still require fitting a weapon to the missile and ensuring a reasonable degree of accuracy. The North Koreans probably do not yet have a nuclear weapon small enough for a missile to carry."
The North says its work is part of a civil nuclear program although it has also boasted of it being a "nuclear weapons power".
(Additional reporting by Jumin Park and Yoo Choonsik in SEOUL; David Alexander, Matt Spetalnick and Paul Eckert in WASHINGTON; Linda Sieg in TOKYO, Sui-Lee Wee and Michael Martina in BEIJING,; Rosmarie Francisco in MANILA; Writing by David Chance; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Robert Birsel)
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
Intl. Community Reacts to N. Korea Rocket Launch The United Nations Security Council is expected to convene an emergency meeting at 11 a.m., Wednesday in New York, which is 1 a.m. early Thursday morning here in Seoul.
UN resolutions 1718 and 1874 ban Pyongyang from using any nuclear or ballistic missile-related technology.
Shortly after the North's rocket launch attempt in April, the 15-member Security Council added a so-called "trigger" clause to a presidential statement, reflecting the Council's determination to take action in the event of another missile launch or nuclear test by Pyongyang.
South Korea, the United States and their allies have strongly denounced the launch.
The White House called the launch a serious provocation that directly violates UN resolutions.
Officials at Korea's foreign ministry say even if the launch was unsuccessful, the launch itself would be considered a violation of the UN resolutions.
They added Seoul will seek stronger punitive measures that it did after the April launch.
Close consulations amongst the members of the six-party talks are also underway.
U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Sung Kim and Commander of U.S. Forces Korea James Thurman met with South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan earlier Wednesday, and the Foreign Minister Kim spoke with his Japanese counterpart over the phone.
Meanwhile, China, the North's long-time ally, also expressed regret over the second rocket launch.
It was among the many nations that had urged North Korea not to go ahead with its plans, and had called on the North's leadership to act prudently.
Back in April, the veto-wielding, permanent member of the Security Councilhowever was not on board with the idea of further restricting the North's finances.
Heo Seung-ha, Arirang News.
DEC 12, 2012
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
12 December 2012 Last updated at 09:40 ET North Korea rocket launch condemned internationally
There's been widespread international condemnation of the launch by North Korea of a long-range rocket.
The United States called it a "highly provocative act that threatens regional security".
China, Pyongyang's closest ally, expressed regret that North Korea had launched a satellite "in spite of the extensive concerns of the international community".
A UN resolution bans North Korea from conducting ballistic missile tests.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the launch was a "clear violation" of that resolution.
The Unha-3 rocket, launched at 09:49 local time (00:49 GMT), appears to have followed its planned trajectory, with stages falling in expected areas.
North Korea says a satellite has been placed in orbit; the US confirmed an object had been put into space.
After previous failures, there is jubilation in North Korea
US National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said: "This action is yet another example of North Korea's pattern of irresponsible behaviour. Given this current threat to regional security, the United States will strengthen and increase our close coordination with allies and partners.
"The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences."
Japan has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Reports suggested this could take place shortly.
The launch comes a week ahead of the South Korean presidential election and roughly a year after the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, on 17 December 2011.
'Extremely regrettable'
The three-stage rocket was launched from a site on North Korea's west coast.
"The launch of the second version of our Kwangmyongsong-3 [Unha-3] satellite from the Sohae Space Centre... on December 12 was successful," state news agency KCNA said. "The satellite has entered the orbit as planned."
The rocket had been scheduled to pass between the Korean peninsula and China, with a second stage coming down off the Philippines.
Most media outlets from South Korea, Japan and China reported the rocket launch at least an hour before Pyongyang's state-run news agency KCNA and the national radio station.
Most TV stations and news portals described the timing as "unexpected", with China's Xinhua news agency an exception.
Xinhua published a commentary a few hours after the launch and defended North Korea's "right to conduct peaceful exploration" of outer space.
After reporting the launch, South Korean and Japanese media quoted officials of the two countries who were sharply critical of it.
"The second stage was assessed to fall into the Philippine Sea. Initial indications are that the missile deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit."
The Japanese government, which put its armed forces on alert ahead of the launch, said the rocket had passed over parts of Okinawa prefecture, south of the Japanese mainland.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, meanwhile, called an emergency meeting of his top advisers. His foreign minister said the government strongly condemned the launch.
In China, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei expressed "regret" at the launch. A commentary from state-run Xinhua news agency called on all parties to remain "cool headed" and engage in "trust-building measures".
April failure North Korea had said two days ago that the launch could be delayed because of a technical problem, extending the window until 29 December.
It is believed to be working on the development of a long-range missile capable of reaching the west coast of the US mainland.
It has not previously successfully launched a three-stage rocket. Its most recent test, in April 2012, ended in failure, when the rocket flew for only a few minutes before exploding and crashing into the sea west of the Korean peninsula.
Officials fear it could be working towards a missile on which a nuclear warhead could be mounted - but it is not thought to have fully developed either the missile or the warheads yet.
Are you in the region? What is your reaction to the launch? Send us your comments using the form below.
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According to NORAD, which inexplicably ignored its prime function of tracking Santa Claus in favor of monitoring missile launches, North Korea successfully orbited a satellite last night, just eight months after an humiliatingly unsuccessful missile test left the 20-something year-old DPRK leader Kim Jong-un claiming that this was the first time his rocket has failed to launch.
But despite claims of success from the DPRK and partial confirmation from NORAD, there are good reasons to be skeptical of just how successful last night's ballistic test was.
1. Even if you know nothing else about the country, remember it's called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. That's three lies in the country's name. Hardly inspires confidence.
2. That time the DPRK press reported Kim Jong-il had shot 11 holes-in-one the first time he played golf should create skepticism of North Korean media.
3. According to an official biography on a since-disabled North Korean state web site, Kim Jong-un's father Kim Jong-il never defecated. Politifact rates this claim "pants full of shit."
4. Would the "Sexiest Man Alive" do something as damaging to his reputation as launch a ballistic missile? Okay, maybe.
5. During the famine of the 1990s, North Korea produced a documentary about a man whose stomach exploded when he ate too much rice. The DPRK is evil, but they're creatively evil. "Conquering space" is too cliche for them.
6. Again, shouldn't NORAD be tracking Santa? What do they know about satellites?
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
North Korea silences doubters, raises fears with rocket launch
By Hilary Whiteman, CNN
updated 6:00 AM EST, Wed December 12, 2012
Watch North Korean rocket launch
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Successful North Korean launch is cause for concern, analysts say
The launch brings Pyongyang closer to the capability to launch a nuclear warhead
There are fears the next step could be another nuclear test
Urgent action is needed through the U.N. Security Council, analysts say
Hong Kong (CNN) -- Eight months ago, the international community stifled a snigger when North Korea's hyped rocket launch ended with a fizzle.
At the time, Pyongyang surprised just about everyone by actually admitting its failure, a departure from previous efforts to project success at all costs.
But this time, they've succeeded.
"The world is not falling apart, like some would say, but at the same time this is not a joke. There was a lot of pre-media coverage that said that North Korea was not good at missile technology and were sort of ridiculing them," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshare Fund and a former adviser to the U.S. government. Rocket launch boosts North Korea Japan: Missile launch is intolerable What is a successful rocket launch? North Korea announces rocket launch
"Are we that much less secure right now?" he asked. "Marginally, but at the same time, this is something that we have to worry about."
What we know is that just before 10 a.m. local time, North Korea launched the long-range Unha-3 rocket carrying "the second version of satellite Kwangmyongsong-3" from the Sohae Space Center in Cholsan County in the country's west.
"The success of the launch -- which most analysts assume is a clandestine missile test -- brings North Korea one step closer to demonstrating a viable and reliable long-range delivery vehicle for a nuclear warhead," said Benjamin Habib, lecturer in Politics and International Relations School of Social Sciences at La Trobe University.
"If the missile technology is mastered, the last technical hurdle remaining is miniaturization of a nuclear warhead that can be deployed on the Unha-3 rocket."
Yun says that's still some way off.
"There's still a lot of work that needs to be done if they're actually going to mount a nuclear device or a weapon on a rocket," he said.
"The good news is we have a fair amount of time. The bad news is that if we're not proactive, and if we don't figure out a way to curtail North Korea's actions, they're going to continue to develop and learn more and over the long term we're going to have to deal with it in a much more difficult situation," he said.
Read more: The cost of the launch
In the short term, one analyst said that Wednesday's successful test was likely to encourage Pyongyang to attempt another nuclear test.
"We don't know if the one in 2009 was a nuclear device rather than a weapon itself. They might need additional refinement and testing of a weaponised as well as a miniaturized version that can fit on a warhead," said Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
"More concerning would be an explosion that used a uranium-based warhead because the plutonium program is largely capped.
The success of the launch brings North Korea one step closer to demonstrating a viable and reliable long-range delivery vehicle for a nuclear warhead
Benjamin Habib, analyst
"We don't think they have any more available plutonium but the uranium path is really wide open. So if they have a uranium-based explosion, that will cause a great deal of concern in the U.S. and its allies that there is an uncapped nuclear weapons program," he said.
Read more: North Korea shouts 'look at me' with rocket
The missile that North Korea fired Wednesday appeared to be a four-stage rocket based on old Soviet technology, much less advanced than the rockets being used across the border in China, said Homer Hickam, a former NASA engineer and the author of "Rocket Boys."
"What the North Koreans have done is taken the technology the Russians developed 50 years ago and upgraded it a little bit and they're trying to use that old technology to cause a splash in the international scene and to get paid attention to," he said.
It seems to have worked.
International condemnation has been building since the launch, which came just days after North Korea admitted that technical problems could cause a delay. Multiple theories have been given for the launch's timing, but most analysts agree that a combination of domestic and international pressures and priorities came into play.
After the humiliation of the failed April launch, leader Kim Jong Un was desperate to assert his leadership credentials, some analysts say. A rocket launch was also seen as a fitting tribute to mark the first anniversary of the death of his father, former leader Kim Jong Il.
Analysts have also pointed to the curious timing of the launch, which came just days before national elections in Japan and South Korea, where the candidates' stance on North Korea is dominating debate in the final days of campaigning.
Chung Min Lee, a professor of international relations at Yonsei University, says the launch was also designed to send a message to the United States and China. "Kim Jong Un has told President Obama and Xi Jinping, 'I am not going to do business as usual. I'll go down this particular path, come what may.' This sends a very negative signal and puts the Chinese into a box. Xi Jinping must react either way. I believe that the Chinese will be a lot stronger on North Korea this time than on any other previous occasions," he said.
It's not a view shared by Dean Cheng, research fellow in Chinese Political and Security Affairs at The Heritage Foundation.
Why did North Korea launch a rocket?
"Frankly, I don't expect very much from Xi," he said. "This new Chinese leadership looks to be extraordinarily weak, in part because of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee. Five of them will have to retire by 2017, which means that the jockeying is already under way for the next succession."
He said the government is likely to take a "wait-and-see" attitude while the rest of the international community seeks to exert pressure on North Korea through the United Nations Security Council.
"If North Korea develops longer-range ballistic missiles, China doesn't think that they'll be aimed at Beijing. So from China's perspective, it has very little interest or need to come down very hard on North Korea until the U.S., Japan and South Korea make it clear to China that allowing North Korea to do this is going to be more costly than cracking down on them," Cheng said.
In a statement Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei expressed regret about the launch.
"China has always insisted on bringing peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula through multilateral dialogue. We hope relevant parties stay calm in order to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," he said.
China has traditionally been a stumbling block in efforts by the international community to pressure North Korea with sanctions imposed through the U.N. Security Council, Klingner said.
"When the U.S. and South Korea went to the U.N. working group after the April launch with a proposed 40 additional entities, China rejected all but three," he said.
He added that the U.S.'s ability to convince Beijing to back its efforts on North Korea will be a real test of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice and the Obama administration's policy toward China. Timeline: North Korea's rocket-fueled obsession
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
China's reaction key as neighbors decry North Korea rocket launch
By Katie Hunt, for CNN
updated 7:53 AM EST, Wed December 12, 2012
Hong Kong (CNN) -- North Korea's neighbors have condemned the secretive nation's launch of a long-range rocket, with Seoul calling the launch a "challenge and threat" to stability on the Korean peninsula and the world at large.
The rocket passed close to the territory of Japan and South Korea but both have refrained from any retaliation.
Japan said it did not take any action to destroy what it termed "a missile," which passed over its territory near the island if Okinawa, and had not seen any signs of damage.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said the launch was "extremely regrettable."
Beijing, North Korea's main ally in the region, took a softer line. North Korea silences doubters, raises fears with rocket launch
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei expressed regret at North Korea's decision to launch despite the concerns of the international community.
"We hope relevant parties stay calm in order to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," the spokesman said.
South Korea's government urged North Korea not to devote resources to developing missiles. "North Korea will be further isolated from the international community after this launch," a statement from the presidential Blue House said.
Debris from the rocket landed 300 km east of the Philippines, which urged Pyongyang to "desist from acts of provocation."
A special broadcast on North Korean television struck a triumphant tone, declaring that its rocket had successfully put a satellite into orbit. The stakes were high after a botched attempt at launching a rocket in April.
Ordinary South Koreans, meanwhile, worried about the motivations behind the launch.
"Confrontation isn't good, it will also cause military tension, but I think North Korea just wanted to show off.," Kim Hyun-ok told CNN. "I am not happy with the continuous confrontation this launch will cause." In a commentary published by state news agency Xinhua earlier in the day, Beijing said there was a "dangerous lack of trust" between North Korea and Japan, South Korea and the United States.
It said Pyongyang should abide by U.N. resolutions but that the country had "the right to conduct peaceful exploration of outer space." Read: North Korea shouts 'look at me' with rocket
Its reaction to North Korea's move and how it responds to any U.N. Security Council initiatives will be key. Japan has asked for a meeting of the Security Council and reports Wednesday suggest that a meeting may take place later in the day.
Beijing is a major source of aid for North Korea and is thought to have the most leverage when it comes to reining in its nuclear ambitions.
Analysts say, however, that Beijing is unlikely to take a hard line on its neighbor.
China is thought to be primarily concerned with maintaining the status quo on the Korean peninsula given that any long-range missiles developed by North Korea are unlikely to be aimed at Beijing. Why did North Korea launch a rocket?
"From China's perspective it has very little interest or need to come down very hard on North Korea until the U.S, Japan and South Korea make it clear to China that allowing North Korea to do this is going to be more costly than cracking down on them," said Dean Cheng, research fellow in Chinese Political and Security Affairs at The Heritage Foundation.
Cheng added China does not have many subtle tools at its disposal when it comes to influencing Pyongyang's behavior.
"What they have is a giant hammer. They could hurt North Korea by shutting down all economic relations and trade but that would likely generate a large number of refugees, something the Chinese aren't interested in." Read: American detained in North Korea
The U.N. has already passed two resolutions aimed at preventing North Korea from launching ballistic missile technology and suspending all activities related to its missile program.
North Korea claims the rocket tests will enable it to launch a satellite but many nations consider the launches a cover for testing ballistic missiles.
The U.S. tried to tighten sanctions against North Korea in the wake of April's failed launch by targeting banks, businesses and government entities that are violating the resolutions, but China vetoed all but three of the 40 entities the U.S. had suggested should be added to the sanction list.
The other forum for engaging Pyongyang are the "six-party talks" between South Korea, Japan, China, the U.S. and Russia. Plans to resume the talks after Kim Jong Un took power in December, following the death of his father, were scuppered after North Korea's failed missile launch in April.
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Jon Chol Jin / AP PhotoNorth Korean youths in traditional Korean outfit play instruments in front of the Pyongyang Grand Theatre in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate a rocket launch on Wednesday, Dec. 12, 2012. (WASHINGTON) — The White House was quick to condemn North Korea‘s successful launch of a long-range rocket, calling it a “highly provocative act” that threatens regional security.
Tuesday’s launch, which caught the world by surprise, apparently placed an object in Earth orbit, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said, but neither the missile nor debris from the launch posed a threat to North America.
The launch directly violated U.N. Security Council resolutions and contravened North Korea’s international obligations, the White House said in a terse statement that labeled the launch “a highly provocative act.”
“This action is yet another example of North Korea’s pattern of irresponsible behavior. The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations and fully committed to the security of our allies in the region,” the statement from National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said. “Given this current threat to regional security, the United States will strengthen and increase our close coordination with allies and partners.”
“The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions have consequences,” Vietor said.
North Korea declared the launch of a rocket and satellite a success early Wednesday local time. Three hours later, the U.S. military confirmed that an object appeared to achieve orbit.
On Saturday, North Korea had widened the dates during which it might conduct the launch of its Unha-3 rocket, citing a technical problem. Washington says the launch is a cover for testing technology for missiles that could be used to strike the United States. The previous four attempts all failed.
“It was a surprise in terms of the timing,” said Bruce Bennett, senior defense analyst with the RAND think tank. “They had talked about postponing for a week. To recover so quickly from technical problems suggests they have gotten good at putting together a missile.”
North Korea has also conducted two nuclear tests since 2006, deepening international concern over its capabilities, although it is not believed to have mastered how to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea last week vowed to seek further U.N. Security Council action if the North conducted a launch. It remained to be seen whether Russia and China, the North’s main ally, would agree to further sanctions.
Victor Cha, a Korea expert at Georgetown University and a former White House policy director for Asia, said a successful launch was a major national security concern for the United States.
He said there would still be technical hurdles for the North to overcome, particularly in terms of getting a rocket to re-enter the atmosphere, but it would mean that North Korea is able to launch a long-range ballistic missile — the first rival state to the U.S. do so since the Soviet Union and China.
Rep. Ed Royce, incoming Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the launch showed that new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons program. Royce also criticized U.S. policy toward Pyongyang, calling it a “long-term failure.”
“The Obama administration’s approach continues to be unimaginative and moribund. We can either take a different approach, or watch as the North Korean threat to the region and the U.S. grows,” Royce said in a statement.
The North Korean Unha-3 rocket is pictured at Tangachai -ri space center on April 8, 2012 (AFP Photo / Pedro Ugarte )
North Korea launched a long-range rocket Wednesday morning despite international opposition and growing tensions in the region. Pyongyang claimed the Unha-3 rocket successfully delivered a scientific satellite into orbit.
Seoul has strongly condemned the launch as a violation of UN resolutions, with the South Korean president calling for an emergency meeting over the issue. The launch was confirmed by officials at the South Korean Defense Ministry and its Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"Shortly after liftoff, the Aegis radar system in the Yellow Sea detected the move," a senior South Korean military official said, Yonhap news agency reports.
North Korea said the Unha-3 rocket delivered a Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite into orbit as planned.
A man watches a TV screen broadcasting news on North Korea's rocket launch, at a railway station in Seoul on December 12, 2012. (AFP Photo / Jung Yeon-Je) "The second version of satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 successfully lifted off from the Sohae Space Center by carrier rocket Unha-3 on Wednesday," the official Korean Central News Agency said. "The satellite entered its preset orbit."
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) reported that the North Korean missile deployed an object that appeared to achieve orbit, which would fall in line with Pyongyang’s claims about the nature of the launch.
However critics believe this could be a ballistic missile test, which the UN has banned North Korea from conducting. The UN Security Council is to gather for an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss the developments.
The debris of the rocket fell into waters off the Philippines at 10:05 a.m. local time after passing over Okinawa, the Japanese government said, according to Yonhap. An official in Seoul told the news agency that the first stage of the North Korean rocket fell in the Yellow Sea.
The launch is the means for North Korea to prove they’re not lagging behind in terms of technology, Eric Sirotkin, lawyer and peacemaker, told RT.
“They believe in their sovereignty and speak about it all the time and consequently they felt that the launch of this missile, if you will, or the satellite was an effort to show that they are highly sophisticated technical nation.”
A Japanese government spokesman protested the launch but urged the Japanese people to go on with their lives as normal. Japan did not activate its PAC-3 missile defense system in response.
A worker (C) of one of Japan's major newspapers hands out extra editions reporting a rocket launch by North Korea, on a street in downtown Tokyo on December 12, 2012. (AFP Photo / Kazuhiro Nogi)
Hours after the launch, Chinese state media urged an early resumption of the six-nation talks aimed at resolving the conflict over North Korea's nuclear program.
The US branded the launch a “highly provocative act that threatens regional security.”
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon "deplores the rocket launch," his spokesman Martin Nesirky said in a statement.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry has voiced “deep regret” over the missile launch, saying that North Korea’s move will “have a negative impact” on the geopolitical situation in the region.
The move comes as a surprise as Pyongyang announced Monday it was extending its launch period for the rocket test by one week to Dec. 29.
Earlier, the US Navy had sent two additional warships to North Korea to track and prepare for a possible North Korean rocket launch, bringing the total number of warships surrounding the Communist state to four.
The United States and the United Nations have expressed concern that North Korea may be testing its missile technology to see if it could be used to eventually strike the US. This is Pyongyang’s second attempt at such a launch this year. The South Korean government estimates that Pyongyang spent some $1.3 billion over the year to conduct the two tests.
“I am afraid that the United States is going to step back, talk less, isolate more… And it is really necessary that we not overreact to this launching of a satellite, but that we say this is a cause and a reason to sit down finally and put an end to this war,” lawyer and peacemaker Sirotkin pointed out.
Travellers watch a TV screen broadcasting news about North Korea's rocket launch, at a railway station in Seoul on December 12, 2012. (AFP Photo / Jung Yeon-Je)
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
North Korea successfully launches rocket
by: By Giles Hewitt
From: AAP
December 12, 2012 9:44PM
South Korea's defence ministry says North Korea has gone ahead with its planned rocket launch. Source: AAP
NORTH Korea has fired a long-range rocket days before the first anniversary of its former ruler's death, magnifying the threat posed by the nuclear-armed state and provoking outrage from the US.
Regional US allies were also angered and even China expressed concern at the successful launch on Wednesday by its wayward communist ally - while also calling on all sides to avoid "stoking the flames".
The launch triggered plans for an emergency session of the UN Security Council, which has imposed round after round of sanctions against North Korea over its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
North Korea insisted the mission was not a banned intercontinental missile test, but was designed to place a scientific satellite in orbit, and said it had achieved all its objectives.
"The satellite has entered the orbit as planned," Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a statement repeated later in a triumphant special broadcast on state television.
North American Aerospace Defence Command (Norad) officials said the launch appeared to have successfully put an object in orbit.
Masao Okonogi, a professor of Korean politics at Keio University, said the launch would thrust North Korea close to the top of Washington's national security agenda.
"Putting a satellite into orbit means that you have technology to get a warhead to a targeted area. Now, North Korea is becoming not only a threat to the neighbouring countries, but also a real threat to the United States," Okonogi said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un was believed to be keen that the launch fall close to the first anniversary of the death of his father and former leader Kim Jong-Il on December 17.
KCNA hailed it as a "ground-breaking" event that paid tribute to the late Kim's vision and leadership.
The launch took many observers by surprise, coming after many experts said North Korea appeared to be running into technical problems caused by the bitter winter weather.
A previous launch of the same Unha-3 rocket in April had ended in embarrassing failure, with the carrier exploding shortly after take-off.
Success this time carries profound security implications, marking a major advance in North Korea's ability to mate an intercontinental ballistic missile capability with its nuclear weapons program.
In October, North Korea had said it already possessed rockets capable of striking the US mainland - a claim that many analysts at the time dismissed as bluster.
In Washington, National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor issued a scathing statement that accused North Korea of once again tearing up the international rulebook.
"North Korea's launch today ... is a highly provocative act that threatens regional security, directly violates United Nations Security Council resolutions ... and undermines the global non-proliferation regime," he said.
Unusually China - North Korea's sole major ally and its biggest trade partner and aid provider - responded relatively quickly with a statement that pressed the country to abide by UN Security Council resolutions.
But in a commentary, state news agency Xinhua also decried "bellicose rhetoric and gestures" by all concerned, and defended North Korea's right to explore space.
"All parties concerned should stay cool-headed and refrain from stoking the flames so as to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control," it said.
Russia labelled Pyongyang's defiance of UN resolutions as "unacceptable" and warned the launch would have a "negative effect" on regional stability.
North Korea is banned from carrying out missile tests under UN resolutions triggered by Pyongyang's two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Japan's government said it "cannot tolerate" the "extremely regrettable" launch, and South Korea's government convened an emergency meeting of its National Security Council.
"This is a threat to peace on the Korean peninsula and around the world," Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan said.
The UN Security Council said it would meet on Wednesday, with one Western diplomat predicting a "strong response".
Pyongyang put the timing of the launch at 9.49am (1149 AEDT) and said the satellite was deployed in orbit nearly 10 minutes later.
The first and second stages fell in the sea west and southwest of the Korean Peninsula, while the third splashed down 300 kilometres east of the Philippines.
US and South Korean officials said it would take time to fully analyse the entire launch and determine its overall success.
While the United States and its allies look to ratchet up pressure at the UN, much will depend on the stance taken by veto-wielding member China.
"China sets the maximum response level in the Security Council when it comes to North Korea," said a senior South Korean government official.
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Re: North Korea preparing for missile test (again)
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Video: North Koreans danced in the streets of their capital Wednesday after the regime of young leader Kim Jong Un successfully fired a long-range rocket, defying international warnings.
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