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Thread: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

  1. #461
    Creepy Ass Cracka & Site Owner Ryan Ruck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Everyone was all sunshine and happy the "DOW has erased yesterday's losses" when it was up all day.

    Not so much as it dropped 500+ points from that to close down 205 today.

  2. #462
    Super Moderator Malsua's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    The only way to really make money in the market is to be in equities on the 5 days with the biggest gains and be out of equities on the five days with the biggest losses.

    The problem is the above statement is pretty much impossible unless you front run the market like HFT.

    I think one rule that would end the HFT gravy train is that they cannot sell and buy the same stock in a 5 minute span.

    This would also virtually eliminate flash crashes.

    HFT algos are the ticket scalpers of Wall Street.

    Imagine if you went to the window at Yankee Stadium to buy a bench seat for $35.00.

    15 milliseconds after you said "I'd like to buy a ticket for $35.00", some guy jumps in front of you, buys the ticket from the stadium window for $35 and turns around and sells it to you at
    the current market price of $40. Would you be upset? I would be.

    Why are HFTs allowed to get away with this?
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Yep. It's a system that was setup before computers were used to make trades automatically based solely off algorithms. When traders packed the floor buying and selling. Now, there aren't nearly as many due to the computerized systems buying and selling.

    It needs to be updated and modernized, unless the status quo is indeed what they want. With the, I'm sure, millions spent on these HFT systems I doubt it will happen. Too much money would be lost by the big trading houses.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Another stellar day on Wall St.

    DOW down 500+/3% at the moment.

  5. #465
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    An interesting view.... http://surviveshemitah.com/
    Ab Urbe Condita 2761

  6. #466
    Super Moderator Malsua's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Quote Originally Posted by Segestan View Post
    An interesting view.... http://surviveshemitah.com/
    Rabbi Jonathan Cahn has been talking about the Shemitah for some time now.

    There are 7 years in the cycle. 9-11-01 was at the end of one Schmitah. The stock market crash of 2008 was at the end of the next, and now this crash and whatever is coming at the end of the current Shemitah which culminates on September 28. Some things appear to occurs 7 days before Yom Kippur. Yom Kippur is on September 23 which means that the 15-16th. Coinciding with the end of Jade Helm? Another crash? Titor nukes?

    Who knows.

    We're a week away.

    I predict...nothing.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


  7. #467
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    I'm no theologian, but there are some I respect that have scripturally dissected Cahn's theories and to my satisfaction eviscerated them. So much of his content deals exclusively with Israel and God's people the Jews. It's hermeneutically unsound to apply the principals of which he speaks out of context. Despite coincidental observations.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    That this is being trail ballooned tells me all I need to know about where they expect the economy to head...


    Fed Officials Seem Ready To Deploy Negative Rates In Next Crisis

    October 10, 2015

    Federal Reserve officials now seem open to deploying negative interest rates to combat the next serious recession even though they rejected that option during the darkest days of the financial crisis in 2009 and 2010.

    “Some of the experiences [in Europe] suggest maybe can we use negative interest rates and the costs aren’t as great as you anticipate,” said William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, in an interview on CNBC on Friday.

    The Fed under former chairman Ben Bernanke considered using negative rates during the financial crisis, but rejected the idea.

    “We decided — even during the period where the economy was doing the poorest and we were pretty far from our objectives — not to move to negative interest rates because of some concern that the costs might outweigh the benefits,” said Dudley.

    Bernanke told Bloomberg Radio last week he didn’t deploy negative rates because he was “afraid” zero interest rates would have adverse effects on money markets funds -- a concern they wouldn’t be able to recover management fees -- and the federal-funds market might not work. Staff work told him the benefits were not great.

    But events in Europe over the past few years have changed his mind. In Europe, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the central banks of Denmark and Sweden have deployed negative rates to some small degree.

    “We see now in the past few years that it has been made to work in some European countries,” he said.

    “So I would think that in a future episode that the Fed would consider it,” he said. He said it wouldn’t be a “panacea,” but it would be additional support.

    In fact, Narayana Kocherlakota, the dovish president of the Minneapolis Fed, projected negative rates in his latest forecast of the path of interest rates released last month.

    Kocherlakota said he was willing to push rates down to give a boost to the labor market, which he said has stagnated after a strong 2014.

    Although negative rates have a “Dr. Strangelove” feel, pushing rates into negative territory works in many ways just like a regular decline in interest rates that we’re all used to, said Miles Kimball, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and an advocate of negative rates.

    But to get a big impact of negative rates, a country would have to cut rates on paper currency, he pointed out, and this would take some getting used to.

    For instance, $100 in the bank would be worth only $98 after a certain period.

    Because of this controversial feature, the Fed is not likely to be the first country that tries negative rates in a major way, Kimball said.

    But the benefits are tantalizing, especially given the low productivity growth path facing the U.S.

    With negative rates, “aggregate demand is no longer scarce,” Kimball said.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Illinois Will Delay Pension Payment Because of Cash Shortage

    October 14, 2015

    Illinois will delay payments to its pension fund as a prolonged budget impasse causes a cash shortage, Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger said.

    The spending standoff between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democratic legislative leaders has extended into its fourth month with no signs of ending. Munger said her office will postpone a $560 million retirement-fund payment next month, and may make the December contribution late.

    “This decision is choosing the least of a number of bad options,” Munger told reporters in Chicago on Wednesday. “For all intents and purposes, we are out of money now.”

    Munger said the pension systems will be paid in full by the end of the fiscal year in June. The state still is making bond payments, and retirees are receiving checks, she said.

    “We prioritize the bond payments above everything else,” Munger told reporters.

    The pension payment delay was inevitable, said some who have been watching the budget gridlock.

    “This is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Ralph Martire, executive director of the Chicago-based Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, which monitors Illinois finances.

    “Every month they go without resolving the impasse on the budget means it’ll cost more to ultimately resolve it,” Martire said. “This is a natural, predictable consequence if you do something called math.”

    Bond Doldrums

    Investors have long penalized the state for its fiscal woes. Illinois holds the lowest credit rating among U.S. states with an A3 from Moody’s Investors Service, four steps above junk, and an equivalent A- from Standard & Poor’s. Municipal investors demand an extra 1.9 percentage points to buy 10-year Illinois bonds instead of benchmark munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    “We’re looking for signs that the we’re going to hit a level patch,” said Paul Mansour, head of municipal research in Hartford, Connecticut, at Conning, which holds Illinois debt among its $11 billion of municipal securities. “But this is an indication we’re still going down the hill.”

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Not just pensions for Illinois but lottery payouts as well...


    Illinois Lottery: Payment Delays For All Winners Over $600

    October 14, 2015

    People who win more than $600 in the Illinois Lottery won't get their money right away because of the ongoing state budget impasse, officials announced Wednesday.

    Last month, the Illinois comptroller's office announced that without a budget for the July 1 fiscal year, the agency didn't have the authority to write checks of more than $25,000 and payments would be delayed. Lottery officials now say they anticipate that on Thursday, the agency's check writing account will be exhausted and there is no legal authority to replenish it.

    "Once a budget is passed in Springfield, all outstanding claims will be paid," according to the statement.

    Two lottery winners have filed a federal lawsuit against the Illinois Lottery for stopping payouts of prizes above $25,000 because of the budget impasse. The lawsuit seeks to force the lottery to pay winners of more than $25,000 with 5 percent interest and asks that the lottery be barred from paying its administrative or operational costs until the winners receive their prizes. The lawsuit alleges dozens await more than $288 million in prizes.

    Tuesday's announcement came the same day state Comptroller Leslie Munger said the budget impasse means next month's $560 million payment to Illinois' pension system will be delayed. She said retirees will still receive benefit checks as scheduled. But the impasse has led to an immediate cash shortage, altering the way her office will dole out payments to the system.

    Despite the budget impasse, money is still being allocated through state laws and consent decrees at last year's rates while less revenue is coming in.

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    Creepy Ass Cracka & Site Owner Ryan Ruck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Flat out amazing that this can be said by anyone with a straight face.


    Fed's Mester Renews Call For U.S. Rate Hike

    October 15, 2015

    The Federal Reserve should begin to hike rates because the U.S. economy has virtually reached full employment and inflation is gradually rebounding, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

    Repeating a message she has delivered for months, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said delaying the long-anticipated policy tightening only risks having to hike rates aggressively down the line.

    Mester, who also said she recently edged down her prediction for "neutral" long-run interest rates, is in the hawkish minority at the U.S. central bank. The majority of Fed officials want to hike later this year, with some dovish officials preferring to wait until 2016 given a slowdown overseas.

    "I believe the economy can handle an increase in the fed funds rate and that it is appropriate for monetary policy to take a step back from the emergency measure of zero interest rates," Mester, who regains a vote on the Fed's policy-setting committee next year under a rotating system, said at New York University.

    The Fed's preferred inflation measure is at 1.3 percent, below a 2-percent target, which it has been for more than three years. Unemployment has fallen to 5.1 percent, down from a crisis-era high of 10 percent in 2009.

    Mester said the economy is "at or nearly at full employment," adding that a small rate rise "is not tight monetary policy."

    A gradual approach, she said, "will allow us to recalibrate policy over time as some of the uncertainties surrounding the underlying economy in the post-crisis world, like the longer-run economic growth rate, are resolved."



    Those 95 million people not in the labor force? Don't worry about those 95 million people not in the labor force.

  12. #472
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Hooray! Unemployment is down to 5%*








    Pay no attention to that asterisks just an insignificant detail...


    Labor-Force Participation Stays At A 38-Year Low

    November 6, 2015

    October's jobs report was full of good news, with nonfarm payrolls dramatically beating expectations and average hourly earnings growing at a faster rate than at any time since the Great Recession.

    Meanwhile, the labor-force participation rate remains at its 38-year low, with just 62.4% of American civilians over the age of 16 either working or looking for work:


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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    2016 is off to a rough trading start. DOW down around 425 at the moment.

  14. #474
    Super Moderator Malsua's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    This is all because of China being off...nothing to really be concerned about just yet. I suspect the market will regain those losses within 48 hours. If not it could mean this is the dive into oblivion......
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Just heard China halted trading early due to losses.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Quote Originally Posted by Malsua View Post
    This is all because of China being off...nothing to really be concerned about just yet. I suspect the market will regain those losses within 48 hours. If not it could mean this is the dive into oblivion......
    Hmmm... Not looking good for today.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    And again...


    China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker

    January 6, 2016

    Chinese stock exchanges closed early for the second time this week after the CSI 300 Index plunged more than 7 percent.

    Trading of shares and index futures was halted by automatic circuit breakers from about 9:59 a.m. local time. Stocks fell after China’s central bank weakened the currency’s daily reference rate by the most since August.

    “The yuan’s depreciation has exceeded investors’ expectations,” said Wang Zheng, Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co. “Investors are getting spooked by the declines, which will spur capital outflows.”

    Under the mechanism which became effective Monday, a move of 5 percent in the CSI 300 triggers a 15-minute halt for stocks, options and index futures, while a move of 7 percent close the market for the rest of the day. The CSI 300 of companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell as much as 7.2 percent before trading was suspended.

    Chinese stocks in Hong Kong, which doesn’t have circuit breakers, slumped 4.4 percent. The offshore yuan fell to a five-year low before erasing losses.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Royal Bank of Scotland Warns Clients To ‘Sell Everything’

    January 12, 2016

    The Royal Bank of Scotland has warned clients to “sell everything,” anticipating a “cataclysmic year” for markets.

    “Sell everything except high quality bonds,” the bank’s credit chief, Andrew Roberts, said in a note to clients this week. “This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

    The note said the current situation was reminiscent of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, which led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point, The Guardian reported.

    “China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldilocks love-in’ of the last two years,” Mr. Roberts said.

    He said European and U.S. markets could fall by 10 to 20 percent.

    Analysts at JP Morgan have also advised clients to sell stocks on any bounce, and Standard Chartered has predicted a slide in oil prices to as low as $10, The Guardian reported.

    “Given that no fundamental relationship is currently driving the oil market towards any equilibrium, prices are being moved almost entirely by financial flows caused by fluctuations in other asset prices, including the U.S. dollar and equity markets,” Standard said. “We think prices could fall as low as $10 a barrel before most of the money managers in the market conceded that matters had gone too far.”

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Market is not looking good at all today.

    DOW flirting with -500.

  20. #480
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Yikes
    Libertatem Prius!


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