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Thread: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    It's All Over As "Leave" Wins Brexit Campaign: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

    by Tyler Durden
    Jun 23, 2016 7:00 PM



    Update 12:15 PM - Turmoil...


    Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs...


    As Cable crashes to 30 year lows...


    And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows...

    This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever...


    Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:

    • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
    • GOLD 1350
    • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
    • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
    • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR 10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
    • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
    • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015

    * * *
    Update 11:38 PM: According to ITV, it's all over: Leave has won the referendum.
    ITV News says Leave to win the EU referendum #EURef https://t.co/yNt4vR2LRH pic.twitter.com/JzuzRo6Oeb
    — ITV News (@itvnews) June 24, 2016
    And BBC and Sky both just called it too. And now, the crying begins.
    * * *
    Update 11:21 PM: ITV's latest odds for a Leave victory rise to 85%
    * * *
    Update 11:17 PM: With two thirds of areas reporting, Leave has the lead with 51.5% of the vote, or 10,996,500 to 10,363,816
    * * *
    Update 11:15 PM: the panic goes global. Nikkei just reported that at 13:15 local time, Japan's finmin Taro Aso will hold a press conference:
    ???????????13?15??????? ?????????
    — ???? @?? (@IsayaShimizu) June 24, 2016
    Update 11:00 PM: Unprecedented moves in markets as the POUND DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985
    * * *
    Update 10:56 PM: Every safe haven is being aggressively bid, even the one which until yesterday was left for dead. Yes, bitcoin is soaring,

    * * *
    Update 10:52 PM: And now China is starting to turmoil, with the USDCNH soaring to 6.63, while the onshore Yuan is crashing to the lowest level since January 2011.
    * * *
    Update 10:50 PM: Central Banks and finance officials are starting to panic

    • ASAKAWA: WILL SPEAK TO MINISTER, TAKE NECESSARY STEPS


    * * *
    Update 10:41PM : ITV latest odd for Leave: 80%
    Markets are Turmoiling...biggest yield collapse in 5Y


    erasing all post-Cox losses...


    As Cable drops to 7 year lows...


    And USDJPY has crashed to a 99 handle!!!! NKY is down 1800points...


    * * *
    Update 10.32: The latest total count:

    • LEAVE: 6,947,780
    • REMAIN: 6,581,905

    This puts leave in the lead with 51.3% of the vote
    This is the biggest single-day drop in Cable...ever

    Update 10:27PM: And another city that was supposed to be solidly in the Remain camp, Sheffield, has just turned to Leave:

    • LEAVE: 136,018
    • REMAIN: 130,735

    Markets just took another leg down... Cable is down almost 6%


    And the collapse contagion is spreading...NKY down 1000 points

    * * *
    Update 10:17 PM: ITV reporting that Leave probability odds are now 75%

    • ITV NEWS RESULTS ANALYSIS: 75% PROBABILITY OF LEAVE TO WIN


    While Ladbrokes once again has Leave favorite at 4/6 with Remain 11/10
    * * *
    Update: 10:11 PM: Odds of "Remain" plunge to zero...
    Pr(Bremain) =~ 0. Remain vote: 47.1 (90% interval: 46.1-48.1) https://t.co/BLmGa7FN4a #EUref
    — Chris Hanretty (@chrishanretty) June 24, 2016
    * * *
    Update 9:53 PM: Leave has regained the total lead with some 50.2% of the vote, or 3,453,618 vs 3,420,957
    Here’s our GIF of results so far #brexit @WSJ pic.twitter.com/xv29Nlt5OP
    — WSJ Graphics (@WSJGraphics) June 24, 2016
    * * *
    All major "risk-on" markets have collapsed back to the "Jo Cox" death lows...




    Dow Futures initial drop was 550 points...


    And post-US-Close, things are not panning out for the "everything is awesome" crowd...


    * * *
    Update 9:40 PM: The selling panic has moderated somewhat as the vote tally moves to the south, and after Remain has regained a modest lead of 51.1%. One can see it in sterling, which has rebounded 500 pips off the lows:

    * * *
    Update 9:34 PM: The latest total:

    • U.K. VOTES: REMAIN 50.7% LEAVE 49.3% AFTER 64 OF 382 DECLARE:PA

    Or, as some called it, on a knife's edge
    * * *
    Update 9:28 PM: After a solid win for Remain in Glasgow, where it got 66.6% of the vote, Leave's odds have declined somewhat to Even vs 8/11 for remain.
    * * *
    Update 9:13 PM: And just like that Leave is now the bookies favorite, with 7/4 odds to Leave and 2/5 odds to Stay, or just over 70%
    * * *
    Update 9:10 PM: Another big dtop for Sterling, which is plunging following news that Swansea, where Remain was expected to win, has instead lost 51.5% 48.%. And cable crashes.


    And now chaos everywhere, as S&P futures tumble 2.5%, FTSE is plunging, the USD is surging 1.1%, Gold is up nearly $30 and so on
    * * *
    Update 9:01 PM; The Latest Ladbrokes figures are shocking:

    • 4/6 REMAIN;
    • 11/10 LEAVE

    This means Leave is almost 50% odds now, after being 11% earlier today.
    * * *
    Update 8:56 PM: The City of London just voted and here is the result

    • Remain: 78.3% (3,912)
    • Leave: 21.7% (1,087)

    Update 8:26 PM: Some more votes from secondary cities:
    Kettering:

    • Remain: 39.0%
    • Leave: 61.0%

    Lagan Valley:

    • Remain: 46.9%
    • Leave: 53.1%

    Dundee City:

    • Remain: 59.8%
    • Leave: 40.2%

    South Tyneside:

    • Remain: 38.0%
    • Leave: 62.0%

    West Dunbartonshire:

    • Remain: 62.0%
    • Leave: 38.0%

    * * *
    Update 8:14 PM: Just a comic interlude this time, but it appears that none other than Lindsay Lohan is also fascinated by what will happen to Brexit tonight:
    #REMAIN Sorry, but #KETTERING where are you&why is this woman @BBCNews speaking on people rather than TELLING us what happens if UK LEAVES?
    — Lindsay Lohan (@lindsaylohan) June 24, 2016
    #remain #REMAIN @standardnews #remain #REMAIN @Telegraph unlike OBAMA's recent setback @BBCWorld i have not been hacked
    — Lindsay Lohan (@lindsaylohan) June 24, 2016
    * * *
    Update 7:55 PM: Swindon is the next big city, and as expected, the Leave campaign won by a 10% lead, 55% to 45%, roughly in line with what was expected. Markets roughly unchanged following these news, with GBPUSD in the mid-1.45 and ES futures -9 to 2097.

    * * *
    Update 7:20 PM The Sunderland results are in and it's a Leave tsunami with Leave crushing Remain in a 61% to 39% vote

    • Remain: 51,930, or 39%
    • Leave 82,394, or 61%

    Following the news Sterling imploded, plunging an unprecedented 700 pips from its highs of 1.50, dropping as much as 1.43 before rebounding modestly.


    Ladbrokes odds jumped to 38% for Leave on the news after hitting 11% earlier in the day.
    * * *
    Update 7:13 PM: Suddenly Leave odds are surging
    BREAKING: LEAVE now into 5/2 from 9/1 after Newcastle declare votes... https://t.co/ZBc74ulSWc #EURef pic.twitter.com/bZLeyKM5C5
    — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 23, 2016
    And just like that, Leave's odds have more than doubled:


    Update 7:00 PM: And a shocker already from Newcastle. As we noted earlier, Newcastle was supposed to have a comfortable 12 point leads for Remain. However, moments ago the official results came out and while Remain did in fact vote for Remain, it won by the smallest possible margin with 51% voting to Remain and 49% voting to Leave, or 65,404 REMAIN vs 63,598 LEAVE.
    As noted, this was a far smaller victory than expected, and as a result Sterling has tumbled nearly 200 pips from the session highs, and has wiped out all intraday gains.

    * * *
    Until this point, it was all polling, hearsay, speculation and rumors. Now, we finally have the first official results. We will update this post with incremental data as long as a clear picture emerges.
    The first official result, Gibraltar, has been a whopping victory for Remain with 19,322 voting to Remain and only 823 to leave.
    Some additional details from the BBC:
    Gibraltar 19,322 for Remain, just 824 for Leave - not a surprise but a whopping
    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016
    Sources suggesting Sunderland might be as high as 62% for Leave, that would be quite something
    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016
    Gibraltar 19,322 for Remain, just 824 for Leave - not a surprise but a whopping
    — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) June 23, 2016
    However a small hiccup may have emerged in the expected Bremain steamrolling, when moments ago the BBC said that Newcastle is shaping up as a marginal win for Remain, which as BBC adds appears to be worse than expected based on initial polls which had suggested a far stronger showing for Remain.
    And the biggest surprise: moments ago Opinium may have flipped everything on its head when moments ago it reported that Leave is 45% and Remain is 44%:
    Too close to call in final #EUref poll: Leave 45% Remain 44%. Everything rests on 9% still undecided. [sample:3,000] Result clear by 7am.
    — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) June 23, 2016
    Sterling has lost 100 pips on the news, and ES was now only up 4.5 on the session.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    S&P Futures Halted Limit Down As VIX Spikes Above 26

    by Tyler Durden
    Jun 24, 2016 12:36 AM

    S&P Futures are down halted limit down as carnage washes across every and any asset class on the heals of Britain's historic vote...



    This has smashed the S&P down to its 200DMA...


    Charts: Bloomberg

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    Nikita Khrushchev: "We will bury you"
    "Your grandchildren will live under communism."
    添ou Americans are so gullible.
    No, you won稚 accept
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    outright, but we値l keep feeding you small doses of
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    until you値l finally wake up and find you already have communism.

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    ."
    We値l so weaken your
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    until you値l
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    like overripe fruit into our hands."



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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Oh my... Just looked and DOW futures are showing down ~670.

    Tomorrow will be... Interesting...

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    U.S. Stock Futures Tumble on Brexit to Trigger Limit-Down Curbs

    June 23, 2016 — 5:02 PM CDT
    Updated on June 24, 2016 — 12:04 AM CDT

    U.S. stock futures plunged, triggering a trading curb, as the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union fanned speculation that a divided Europe would put another brake on already fragile global growth.

    S&P 500 Index contracts slumped 5.1 percent at 12:28 a.m. in New York, triggering a limit-down rule. The curb means the contract cannot trade at a lower price for the remainder of the overnight session. The pound slid the most on record to its weakest since 1985, while the yen rallied on demand for haven assets. Polling before the referendum had indicated a vote too close to call. At 5:11 a.m. London time, BBC projections showed voters backing “Leave” by 52 percent to 48 percent.

    Central banks have sounded the alarm over a potential Brexit, with chiefs of the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada all citing the vote as a potential disruption to the global economy. Yellen said yesterday the decision could have consequences for financial markets, and “in turn for the U.S. economic outlook.” The International Monetary Fund had warned that a so-called Brexit risked damage to the U.K. economy.

    “Risk-off is back,” Joe Quinlan, chief market strategists at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management, said by phone. “We’ve got a fragile, weakening economy and the last thing we need is for one of the stronger developed economies to falter. If it’s a leave vote, you just chipped away a little bit at global growth for the next 12 months.”

    Futures contracts on the CBOE Volatility Index soared 49 percent in after-market trading, after the VIX plunged the most since 2013 Thursday. Equity futures and other risk assets had climbed earlier after a YouGov poll showed support for remaining stood at 52 percent, while a separate survey conducted by Opinium indicated a slight lead for the Leave camp.

    Final results for the U.K. vote are due at about 2 a.m. on Friday. An analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicated a 51.1 percent chance of a Brexit, according to a client note.

    The equity gauge could plunge as much as 7 percent in the event of a Brexit, Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note prior to the referendum. A vote to remain would weaken the dollar and boost crude prices, spurring a 3 percent to 4 percent rally in U.S. stocks, they said.

    Financial companies should benefit if the U.K. votes to stay on higher bond yields, according to a June 23 note by BMO Capital Markets. Banks in the S&P 500 led gains out of 24 groups on Thursday, posting the steepest one-day rally in five weeks.

    The vote comes at a time when uncertainty already plagues U.S. stocks, with questions around the Fed’s ability to stoke growth, the fall elections, a four-quarter decline in corporate profits and price-earnings ratios that are close to a decade high. The S&P 500 plunged 11 percent in its worst-ever start to a year before recovering through April. It’s virtually been stuck in place since, struggling to hold above the 2,100 level that has capped three rallies since November.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...emaining-in-eu

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    Nikita Khrushchev: "We will bury you"
    "Your grandchildren will live under communism."
    添ou Americans are so gullible.
    No, you won稚 accept
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    outright, but we値l keep feeding you small doses of
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    until you値l finally wake up and find you already have communism.

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    ."
    We値l so weaken your
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    until you値l
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    like overripe fruit into our hands."



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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Alan Greenspan: "This is the worst" - CNBC

    Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday the U.K. vote to leave the European Union ushers in a period that's even worse than the darkest days of October 1987.



    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/24/alan-...e-iceberg.html

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    Nikita Khrushchev: "We will bury you"
    "Your grandchildren will live under communism."
    添ou Americans are so gullible.
    No, you won稚 accept
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    outright, but we値l keep feeding you small doses of
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    until you値l finally wake up and find you already have communism.

    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    ."
    We値l so weaken your
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    until you値l
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
    like overripe fruit into our hands."



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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    "It’s Scary, And I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It" - Where Markets Are The Morning After

    by Tyler Durden
    Jun 24, 2016 6:44 AM

    For those of you who are just waking up, first of all, congratulations. Here is what you missed.

    European, Asian stocks and S&P futures plummet, as U.K. votes to leave European Union membership. FX carry trades everywhere go haywire, with the Dollar and Yen spiking while the Cable overnight plunged to 30 year lows and at last check was trading just around 1.37, down 1,300 pips from yesterday's highs. A modest rebound was experienced when first the Bank of England and shortly after all other central banks promised to pump virtually unlimited liquidity into the financial system. Ironically, all of this takes place a day after Fed’s stress tests showing all 33 banks exceed minimum requirements - we may find out just how "unstressed" they are as soon as today.

    For those who are pressed for time, the following quote from James Butterfill, head of research and investments at ETF Securities, summarized it best: "It’s scary, and I’ve never seen anything like it. We’re going to see outflows from basically any kind of cyclical asset. A lot of people were caught out, and many investors will lose a lot of money.”

    Here are key market updates:


    • S&P 500 futures down 3.9% to 2023
    • Stoxx 600 down 7% to 322
    • MSCI Asia Pacific down 4.1% to 125
    • US 10-yr yield down 22bps to 1.53%
    • Dollar Index up 1.86% to 95.27
    • WTI Crude futures down 4.2% to $48.00
    • Brent Futures down 4.3% to $48.70
    • Gold spot up 4.2% to $1,310
    • Silver spot up 2.8% to $17.77


    TOP NEWS:


    • U.K. Votes for Brexit as Cameron Resigns After Historic Rupture: Prime minister to step down as Johnson weighs next step
    • Pound Plunges to 30-Year Low as U.K. Assets Slide on Brexit: ‘There are certain days you never forget,’ says HSBC’s Bloom
    • Carney Pledges $345 Billion to Fund First Line of Brexit Defense: Markets bets on a July interest rate cut climb to 50%
    • Nationalist Parties Seize on Brexit to Demand Own EU Referendums: Le Pen, Wilders, Northern League call for vote
    • Biggest U.S. Banks Seen Weathering Severe Stress in Fed Test: Regulators release results of Dodd-Frank mandated exercise
    • Oil Tumbles After Brexit Vote as Traders Assess Lasting Impact: WTI, Brent down >6.6% as traders flee risky assets
    • Gold Sees Biggest Gain Since 2008 in Rush for Havens From Brexit: Sterling-denominated gold jumps 15%, the most ever
    • Xerox Appoints Jeff Jacobson as New Chief After Co. Split: Jacobson named as incoming CEO of document technology seller
    • Albemarle, Fortive to Join S&P 500; Emcor Named to MidCap 400: Changes to be implemented after close of trading June 30




    WHAT HAPPENED IN EUROPEAN MARKETS:
    European shares sinks after U.K. voted to quit the European Union. All 19 Stoxx 600 sectors fall with banks, insurance underperforming and health care, food & beverage outperforming. 90% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 10% gain. “It’s scary, and I’ve never seen anything like it,” said James Butterfill, head of research and investments at ETF Securities, said by phone from London. “We’re going to see outflows from basically any kind of cyclical asset. A lot of people were caught out, and many investors will lose a lot of money.”

    As the win for the Leave campaign in the EU referendum became clear, global equities plunged with the FTSE 100 falling as low as 8%, led by sharp losses in financials with UK banks (Barclays, Lloyds, RBS) lower by around 30% which has seen the iTraxx senior financials 5yr index (CDS on banks) soar to its highest level since February. As such, the fear of contagion from this outcome has seen European bourses heavily in the red (DAX -10%, Euro Stoxx -9%), while the E-mini S&P 500 saw a 5% fall to hit limit down.

    However, in recent trade, equities have pulled off worst levels as markets find relative calm amid the BoE Governor stating that the central bank is willing to provide liquidity in the form of GBP 250b1n, while David Cameron announced that he will remain as PM till October in order to combat any immediate instability. Elsewhere, Gilt yields have seen its largest drop since 2009 to yet again print fresh record lows as investors flock to safe haven assets, while Bunds staggeringly opened slightly below 169.00 before paring somewhat, back to around 166.00. Of note, in the wake of the Brexit outcome, S&P have warned that the UK could lose its AAA sovereign rating, while the likes of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and ING have all forecast an upcoming BoE rate cut.

    EUROPEAN DATA:


    • Stoxx 600 down 7% to 322
    • FTSE 100 down 5.3% to 6003
    • DAX down 6.6% to 9579
    • German 10Yr yield down 17bps to -0.08%
    • Italian 10Yr yield up 11bps to 1.51%
    • Spanish 10Yr yield up 11bps to 1.58%
    • S&P GSCI Index down 2.7% to 370.3




    EUROPEAN TOP NEWS:


    • Finance Chiefs Dismay Brexit as Bank Stocks Plunge Across Europe: Deutsche Bank CEO calls decision “negative on all sides”
    • SNB Steps Into Currency Market Amid Brexit-Induced Stress: Swiss policy makers have repeatedly threatened interventions
    • German Ifo Confidence Improved Even as Brexit Threat Loomed: Ifo business climate index rises to 108.7 from 107.8
    • Deutsche Boerse Reaffirms Plan to Buy LSE After Brexit Vote: LSE equity holders to own 45.8% of the enlarged company
    • S&P Prepares U.K. Ratings Downgrade as Britain Votes to Leave EU: S&P sees period of uncertainty that may prevail for years
    • Henkel to Buy Sun Products for $3.6 Billion in Biggest U.S. Deal: Deal gives company No. 2 position in U.S. laundry care
    • Rexel Fires CEO Provoost After Disagreement on Governance: Company veteran Patrick Berard named CEO as of July 1
    • Air France-KLM Names Janaillac CEO and Chairman as of July 4: Janaillac to become chairman and CEO from July 4
    • EDF CEO Says Strategy in U.K. Won’t Be Affected by Brexit Vote: Vote has no impact on co.’s strategy, Levy says
    • IAG Sees Brexit Volatility Reducing Profit Growth This Year: No longer sees absolute op. profit increase in FY like ’15




    WHAT HAPPENED IN ASIAN MARKETS:
    Asian stocks slumps, heading for the steepest drop in 10 months. All 10 sectors drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index with materials, consumer discretionary underperforming and utilities, information technology outperforming. Yen briefly surged past 100 as Brexit in Lead in Results. “Fear is normally easier to profit from than greed. This is what we are seeing today,” said Ang Kok Heng, Kuala Lumpur-based chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Bhd., which oversees $630 million in Kuala Lumpur.

    BoJ Governor Kuroda said he is ready to supply sufficient liquidity and to carefully watch effects on markets.
    Risk assets tumbled overnight as the UK vote to leave the EU, which saw FTSE 100 futures briefly decline below the 5800. This also saw losses of around 200 points to the E-mini S&P and crashed Asian equity markets with Nikkei 225 declining as much as 8%, with Osaka futures triggering circuit breakers. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng conformed to the global sell-off with UK dual-listed financials including HSBC, Prudential and Standard Chartered under heavy pressure in Hong Kong taking on a likely Brexit. Finally, 10yr JGBs outperformed while T-notes rose around 2.5 points as the Brexit woes spur heavy flows into safer assets which also pushed gold higher by USD 80/oz. Japanese Finance Minister Aso pledged to take measures to calm markets and added that a Brexit will not have a sudden impact on the Japanese real economy.

    ASIA DATA:


    • MSCI Asia Pacific down 4.1% to 125
    • Nikkei 225 down 7.9% to 14952
    • Hang Seng down 2.9% to 20259
    • Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 2854
    • S&P/ASX 200 down 3.2% to 5113




    ASIA TOP NEWS:


    • Yen Soars Past 100 Per Dollar as U.K. Vote Spurs Rush to Safety: Currency surges 18% versus pound as Britons choose Brexit
    • Offshore Yuan Drops Most in Five Months as Brexit Victory Looms: PBOC injects most funds this week since April via operations
    • HSBC, Standard Chartered Lead Asia Bank Rout as U.K. Votes ‘Out’: Banks have warned of U.K. job cuts in case of Brexit
    • Brexit Brings Short-Lived Pain for India’s Largest IT Exporters: Cos. may benefit from increased demand in long term
    • Hong Kong’s China Tourist Malaise Deepens From Bling to Buns: Sa Sa profit plunge 54% on poorer cosmetic sales to Chinese




    In FX, the aftermath of the UK vote to leave the EU has seen Cable plummeting from its highs, which managed to print a 1.5000 handle before the news starting hitting the wires from the first regions reported. The sell-off led to the key spot rate recording lows around 1.3230, but the fallout has since been tempered, with what is an impressive recovery to within 30 ticks or so of the 1.4000 mark before moving back towards 1.3700. EUR/GBP highs tipped .8300, but London has since seen the cross rate dipping under .8000, but it is all early days as yet. Gains in the JPY and CHF have been notable also, but both the BoJ and SNB will have intervened to some degree — the SNB confirming as much after EUR/CHF well into to the low 1.0600's. USD/JPY took out 100.00 to print lows ahead of 99.00, but the recovery here —alongside some moderation in equities — has seen the 103.00 attained, but struggling to maintain a foothold here —understandable in the current climate. AUD, NZD and CAD have all lost out, but have been fighting back since —AUD in particular now only 2.5 cents off the overnight highs.

    In commodities, heading into the North American crossover, WTI and Brent crude futures remain pressured on the back of the strength in the greenback, as such prices hover below USD 48 and USD 49 respectively. In terms of specific newsflow it has been somewhat muted given the focus revolving around the UK referendum. Separately, gold prices outperformed with participants flocking to safe-haven assets with the precious metal reaching highs of near USD 1360/oz in light of the EU referendum result, before paring some of the moves to head into the North American open around USD 1318/oz.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-morning-after

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    Home Ownership Rate Lowest Since 1965

    July 28, 2016

    The proportion of U.S. households that own homes has matched its lowest level in 51 years — evidence that rising property prices, high rents and stagnant pay have made it hard for many to buy.

    Just 62.9 percent of households owned a home in the April-June quarter this year, a decrease from 63.4 percent 12 months ago, the Census Bureau said Thursday. The share of homeowners now equals the rate in 1965, when the census began tracking the data.

    The trend appears most pronounced among millennial households, ages 18 to 34, many of whom are straining under the weight of rising apartment rents and heavy student debt. Their homeownership rate fell 0.7 percentage point over the past year to 34.1 percent. That decline may reflect, in part, more young adults leaving their parents’ homes for rental apartments.

    The overall decline appears to be due largely to the increased formation of rental households, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at the real estate site Trulia. McLaughlin cautioned, though, that the decrease in homeownership from a year ago was not statistically significant.

    America added nearly a million households over the past year and all of them were renters. Home ownership has declined even as the housing market has been recovering from the 2007 bust that triggered the Great Recession. Ownership peaked at 69.2 percent at the end of 2004.

    Home prices have been steadily outpacing gains in average earnings. This has made it harder for first-time buyers to save for down payments, thereby delaying their ability to purchase a home.

    The median home sales price was $247,700 in June, up 4.8 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. That increase is roughly double the pace of average hourly wage gains.

    Mortgage rates, which are near historic lows, have helped boost sales of existing homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, the strongest pace since early 2007. But few properties are being listed for sale, giving would-be buyers a limited selection and increasing price pressures.

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    Paul Singer Fund: Market 'Breakdown' To Be 'Sudden, Intense, And Large'

    August 18, 2016

    In a bleak new letter to investors, Paul Singer's Elliott Management warns that the bond market is "broken" and that when the central bank actions of recent years no longer ward off a market downturn, the subsequent loss of confidence could be severe.

    The fund's recent investor letter, which covers the second quarter, notes that Elliott's managers are currently seeing "what is in many ways the most peculiar period we have faced in 39 years."

    Too much power has been ceded to central banks, the letter adds, the value of money has been debased, inflation is probably inevitable, and when it happens, it could be swift and impossible to tamp down.

    Elliott is a $28 billion fund founded in 1977 by Singer, now its president. The fund is up more than 6 percent for the year through July, according to an investor. (Singer is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the Delivering Alpha Investor Summit, Sept. 13.)

    Given the persistence of low or negative yields on government and other bonds and the continued stampede to buy them nonetheless, today's environment marks "the biggest bond bubble in world history," and "the global bond market is broken," the investor letter states.

    The letter discusses, at some length, the oddity of an investor mentality that flies to an asset class regarded as a "safe haven" even when there are low or nonexistent returns attached to it and no guarantee that current conditions will persist.

    In one wry aside, the letter suggests a safety warning be attached to the $12 trillion government bond market now trading at negative yields: "Hold such instruments at your own risk; danger of serious injury or death to your capital!"

    Trading in this market is particularly difficult, it adds. "Everyone is in the dark," Elliott notes. "Experience doesn't count for much, and extreme confidence may be fatal." Moreover, "the ultimate breakdown (or series of breakdowns) from this environment is likely to be surprising, sudden, intense, and large."

    With those dangers looming, Elliott managers reflect on the importance of hedging for possible headwinds to the company's portfolio.

    Among other things, the letter adds, the hedge fund is seeing opportunity in the distressed-energy sector despite the rebound of oil and gas prices from their lows. The fund also has been building up its gold position "in a conditional format," to ebb losses "should prices fall back from their recent strength."

    Elliott also takes pride in its own recent performance — Elliott Associates, its U.S.-based fund, was up 2.3 percent for the second quarter and 5.1 percent year to date through June 30, besting the S&P 500 as well as three-month Treasury bills. The letter makes a defense of alternative investments like it at a time when investor redemptions and underperformance are dogging many of its rivals.

    "It seems to us that investments and trading strategies which make money in a value-added way, in a different manner than the returns obtainable from the passive ownership of stocks and bonds, are especially good additions to institutional portfolios in the world going forward," the letter states.

    That may be a more challenging argument for the average hedge fund competitor, which according to the HFR composite is up just 3 percent through July versus an S&P 500 that's up more than 6 percent.

    It's the type of underperformance, driven in part by overly crowded trades in stocks and other assets, that prompted Third Point CEO Dan Loeb to predict a coming "washout" in his industry earlier this year.

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    The $6 Trillion Public Pension Hole That We’re All Going To Have To Pay For

    August 20, 2016

    U.S. state and local employee pension plans are in trouble — and much of it is because of flaws in the actuarial science used to manage their finances. Making it worse, standard actuarial practice masks the true extent of the problem by ignoring the best financial science — which shows the plans are even more underfunded than taxpayers and plan beneficiaries have been told.

    The bad news is we are facing a gap of $6 trillion in benefits already earned and not yet paid for, several times more than the official tally.

    Pension actuaries estimate the cost, accumulating liabilities and required funding for pension plans based on longevity and numerous other factors that will affect benefit payments owed decades into the future. But today’s actuarial model for calculating what a pension plan owes its current and future pensioners is ignoring the long-term market risk of investments (such as stocks, junk bonds, hedge funds and private equity). Rather, it counts “expected” (hoped for) returns on risky assets before they are earned and before their risk has been borne. Since market risk has a price — one that investors must pay to avoid and are paid to accept — failure to include it means official public pension liabilities and costs are understated.

    The current approach calculates liabilities by discounting pension funds cash flows using expected returns on risky plan assets. But Finance 101 says that liability discounting should be based on the riskiness of the liabilities, not on the riskiness of the assets.

    With pension promises intended to be paid in full, the science calls for discounting at default-free rates, such as those offered by Treasurys. Here’s the problem: 10-year and 30-year Treasurys now yield 1.5% and 2.25%, respectively. Pension funds on average assume a 7.5% return on their investments — and that’s not just for stocks. To do that, they have to take on a lot more risk — and risk falling short.

    Much debate focuses on whether 7.5% is too optimistic and should be replaced by a lower estimate of returns on risky assets, such as 6%. This amounts to arguing about how accurate is the measuring stick. But financial economists widely agree that the riskiness of most public pension plans liabilities requires a different measuring stick, and that is default-free rates.

    Ignoring this risk leaves about half of the liabilities and costs unrecognized. At June 30, 2015, aggregate liabilities were officially recognized at more than $5 trillion, funded by assets valued at almost $4 trillion and leaving $1 trillion — or more than 20% — unfunded. These are debts that must be paid by future taxpayers, or pensioners lose out. Taking into account benefits paid, passage of time and newly earned benefits, we estimate June 30, 2016 liabilities at $5.5 trillion and assets roughly unchanged at that same $4 trillion, indicating a $1.5 trillion updated shortfall.

    Now let’s factor in both the cost of risk and low U.S. Treasury rates. We estimate the 2016 risk-adjusted liabilities nearly double to about $10 trillion, leaving unfunded liabilities of about $6 trillion, rather than $1.5 trillion.

    Because today’s actuarial models assume expected returns and ignore the cost of risk, risk isn't avoided; indeed it is sought! By investing in riskier assets, pension plans’ models then enable them to claim they are better funded and keep required contributions from rising further.

    Risky assets (like stocks) are of course expected to return more than default-free bonds. If that weren’t true, no investor would hold risky assets. But expected to return more doesn't mean will return more.

    Risky assets might well earn less than default-free bonds, perhaps much less, even over the long term — that’s what makes them risky. And if that weren’t true, no investor would hold default-free bonds.

    Compounding the problem, today’s aggregate annual contributions of $160 billion don’t even pay for newly earned benefits, adding more debt to be paid by future generations. State and local governments already face making bigger required contributions — even under the measurement approach that ignores risk — requiring higher taxes and crowding out other government spending. That is already happening in Chicago. In Detroit, Stockton, Calif., and Puerto Rico, bondholders haven't been paid.

    Some actuaries argue it’s time to change this approach. This was spelled out in a recent paper written by several members of a pension finance task force jointly created by two industry groups 14 years ago. We are two of those authors.

    The leadership of the American Academy of Actuaries, which speaks for its 18,500 members on public policy matters, rejected the paper. It also persuaded the Society of Actuaries, the other industry group, not to publish it. On Aug. 1, the presidents of the two organizations issued a joint letter disbanding the task force and declaring that the authors couldn't publish the paper anywhere.

    This is more than just an internal dispute. Today’s public plan actuaries serve their clients, who want lower liabilities and costs, even at the expense of future taxpayers and other stakeholders.

    Plans are in trouble. Every year they are in deeper trouble. Many taxpayers are aware that state and local government pension plans are underfunded. They generally aren’t aware just how dire the situation is.

    Good numbers don’t assure success, but bad numbers lead to bad decisions and may invite disaster.

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    Barack Obama may have finally destroyed America’s #1 advantage



    Simon Black
    August 23, 2016
    Santiago, Chile


    In July 1944, just weeks after the successful Allied invasion of Normandy, hundreds of delegates from around the world gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to determine the future of the global financial system.

    The vision was simple: America would be the center of the universe, and every other nation would revolve around the US.

    This arrangement ultimately led to the US dollar being the world’s dominant reserve currency which still remains today.

    Whenever a Brazilian merchant pays a Korean supplier, that deal is negotiated and settled in US dollars.

    Oil. Coffee. Steel. Aircraft. Countless commodities and products across the planet change hands in US dollars, so nearly every major commercial bank, central bank, multi-national corporation, and sovereign government must hold and be able to transact in US dollars.

    This system provides a huge incentive for the rest of the world to hold trillions of dollars worth of US assets– typically deposits in the US banking system, or US government bonds.

    It’s what makes US government debt the most popular “investment” in the world, why US government bonds are considered extremely liquid “cash equivalents”.

    As long as this system continues, the US government can continue to go deeper into debt without suffering serious consequences.

    Just imagine being totally broke… yet every time you want to borrow money there’s a crowd of delighted lenders eager to replenish your wallet with fresh funds.

    This may be the US government’s #1 advantage right now.

    You’d think that they would be eternally grateful and take care to never abuse this incredible privilege.

    But no… not these guys.

    In fact, they’ve done the exact opposite. Over the last eight years the US government has gone out of its way to eliminate as much of this benefit and alienate as many allies as possible.

    They’ve abused the trust and confidence that the rest of the world placed in them by racking up record amounts of debt, waging indiscriminate wars in foreign lands, and dropping bombs on children’s hospitals by remote control.

    They’ve created absurd amounts of regulations and had the audacity to expect foreign banks to comply.

    Plus they’ve levied billions of dollars worth of fines against foreign banks who haven’t complied with their ridiculous regulations.

    (Last week, for example, New York state financial regulators fined a Taiwanese bank $180 million for not complying with NY state law.)

    And they’ve threatened to banish any foreign banks from the US financial system who don’t pay their steep fines.

    Abuse. Deceit. Extortion. Not exactly great ways to win friends and influence people.

    It’s as if Barack Obama pulled together the smartest guys he could find to make a list of all the ways the US government would have to screw up in order to lose its enormous financial privilege… and then he went out and did ALL of them.

    The US government is practically begging the rest of the world to find an alternative to the US dollar and US banking system.

    Even the government of France, a key US ally, called into question continued US dominance of the global financial system after the US government slammed French bank BNP Paribas with a $9 billion fine.
    There have already been some attempts to displace the United States in the financial system.

    China has been aggressively setting up its own competing financial infrastructure, something called the China International Payment System.

    It’s been a slow start for the Chinese, but they’re building momentum. Though I’m not sure China is the answer in the long run.

    While banks around the world may not care for the long and strong arm of the US government, the Chinese government doesn’t exactly inspire trust either.
    But now there really is an alternative. Technology.

    Ripple, a blockchain-style protocol that’s funded by Google Ventures (among others), is now being utilized by international banks to send and receive transactions directly.

    The way international bank transfers work now relies exclusively on the US financial system.

    Large foreign banks have what’s called a “correspondent account”, typically at a major US bank like JP Morgan, Citibank, etc.

    A correspondent account is essentially a bank account for other banks. Our company holds funds at a bank in Singapore, for example, whose US dollar correspondent account is at Bank of New York Mellon.

    Foreign banks’ US dollar correspondent accounts are typically at major Wall Street banks because that’s the epicenter of US dollar transactions.

    So when a bank in Australia sends US dollars to a bank in South Africa, that payment actually flows from the Australian bank’s correspondent account in the US to the South African bank’s correspondent account in the US.
    The entire transaction effectively takes place using the US banking system.
    Again, this gives the US government enormous power over foreign banks. Any foreign bank that doesn’t do what Uncle Sam commands can be excommunicated from the US banking system.

    And without access to the US banking system, a foreign bank will be unable to transact in US dollars, and hence unable to conduct any global business.

    This is a death sentence for a bank. The US government knows this and has been blackmailing global banks for years.

    But now technology is providing another option.

    Banks don’t have to use the US banking system anymore; they can send real-time payments internationally using the Ripple protocol.

    Two months ago a Canadian financial services company sent the first-ever institutional cross-border payment to a German bank.
    This isn’t some wild theory or conjecture. It’s actually happening.

    Just this morning a group of 15 banks in Japan signed up to start using Ripple, and dozens of banks plan to use the protocol within the next six months.

    The technology is cheaper. Faster. Superior. And it doesn’t come with any US government strings attached.

    So it seems Uncle Sam may have finally shot himself in the foot for the last time.
    Our goal is simple: To help you achieve personal liberty and financial prosperity no matter what happens.

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    Mortgage Applications Down 6% As Rising Rates Take A Toll

    October 12, 2016

    As pumpkins pop up on front porches across the nation, the highest interest rates in a month are scaring consumers away from the mortgage market.

    Total mortgage application volume fell 6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended Oct. 7, compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 3.68 percent, from 3.62 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

    "As incoming economic data reassured investors regarding U.S. growth, and financial markets returned to viewing a December Fed hike as increasingly likely, mortgage rates rose to their highest level in a month last week," said Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the MBA. "Total and refinance application volume dropped to their lowest levels since June as a result."

    Applications to refinance a home loan, which are highly rate-sensitive, have been falling for weeks, and took another 8 percent dive last week, seasonally adjusted. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell a smaller 3 percent for the week and are 27 percent higher than one year ago. Comparisons to last year may be skewed, however, as new mortgage rules went into effect last October that pulled demand forward and then delayed mortgage processing.

    The Federal Housing Administration share of total applications increased to 10.9 percent from 10.0 percent the week before, which may indicate more first-time buyers entering the market. FHA loans require just 3.5 percent down payments. First-time buyers are traditionally more active in the fall, as they are less likely to be large families, influenced by school calendars.

    The drop in mortgage application volume shows how sensitive today's buyers and borrowers are to the slightest rate moves. Interest rates are still low by historical standards. Home prices, however, are accelerating again, and that squeezes the margin for borrowers. New listings are also not coming on the market fast enough to meet the pent-up demand for housing.

    Interest rates continued to rise this week, as volatility ruled and roiled financial markets. From an increasingly divided Fed to an unprecedented political situation, investors are increasingly nervous. Later Wednesday, the release of the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, where three governors dissented, will undoubtedly move rates decidedly in one direction or another yet again.

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    RED ALERT — Get Ready For A 'Severe Fall' In The Stock Market, HSBC Says

    October 12, 2016

    HSBC's technical-analysis team has thrown up the ultimate warning signal.

    In a note to clients released Wednesday, Murray Gunn, the head of technical analysis for HSBC, said he had become on "RED ALERT" for an imminent sell-off in stocks given the price action over the past few weeks.

    Gunn uses a type of technical analysis called the Elliott Wave Principle, which tracks alternating patterns in the stock market to discern investors' behavior and possible next moves.

    In late September, Gunn said the stock market's moves looked eerily similar to those just before the 1987 stock market crash. Citi's Tom Fitzpatrick also highlighted the market's similarities to the 1987 crash just a few days ago. On September 30, Gunn said stocks were under an "orange alert," as they looked to him as if they had topped out.

    And now, given the 200-point decline for the Dow on Tuesday, Gunn thinks the drop is here.

    "With the US stock market selling off aggressively on 11 October, we now issue a RED ALERT," Gunn said in the note. "The fall was broad-based and the Traders Index (TRIN) showed intense selling pressure as the market moved to the lows of the day. The VIX index, a barometer of nervousness, has been making a series of higher lows since August."

    Gunn said the selling would truly set in if the Dow Jones Industrial Average were to fall below 17,992 or if the S&P 500 were to dip under 2,116. The Dow closed at 18,128 on Tuesday, while the S&P settled at 2,136.

    "As long as those levels remain intact, the bulls still have a slight hope," Gunn said.

    "But should those levels break and the markets close below (which now seems more likely), it would be a clear sign that the bears have taken over and are starting to feast. The possibility of a severe fall in the stock market is now very high."

    Watch out.


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    Something has caused the the steak I normally buy at Sam's to jump from $3.98 to $4.48 per pound in the last 2 weeks.

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    Black-Friday Woes: The Death of the Department Store

    by Wolf Richter • November 25, 2016

    They no longer shop till they drop.

    Black Friday is when you’re supposed to shop till you drop. It kicks off the holiday selling season. No season is more sacred for retailers. They’re expected to do about 40% of their annual sales in those few weeks till Christmas.

    The National Retail Federation is bubbling over with enthusiasm, expecting holiday sales to grow 3.6% this year to $656 billion. Since Trump has won the election, consumer optimism about the economy has surged, and this is expected to be one hot holiday selling season.

    But not today, not at brick-and-mortar retailers, according to Reuters:
    “Initial reports show it’s steady and not very busy at stores around the country,” explained Craig Johnson, president at Customer Growth Partners. The retail consultancy deployed 18 people to observe customer traffic across the country.
    Store traffic remained subdued across the country, according to spot checks made by Reuters reporters and industry officials.
    Rain hurt shopping at stores in the Northeast, Johnson said, but some retailers like Best Buy and Wal-Mart saw improved customer traffic at stores across the country.
    Macy’s and Best Buy on Chicago’s Magnificent Mile were packed, but employees said most of the customers were tourists.
    Chicago’s State Street, a normally bustling shopping area popular with locals, was desolate.
    The Los Angeles Times reported a similarly gloomy scenario from Southern California:
    Shoppers out in the early hours on Black Friday roamed stores in Southern California that they say were emptier than in years past.
    At 4 a.m. at a Target in Duarte, Michael Chung, 40, and his three children said many of the store’s doorbuster items were still in stock. Last year, he recalled, many already had sold out by that predawn hour.
    “There’s less people, and you don’t feel the holiday spirit,” said the seven-year veteran of Black Friday sales. “It’s scary. It doesn’t feel like Black Friday. This year is very weird.”
    The multigenerational clans that normally swarm around malls together on Black Friday were also scarce:
    “That multigenerational tradition for some families is 50, 60 years in the making,” said Britt Beemer, founder of America’s Research Group. “They drive about 25% of mall sales on Black Friday. If they don’t show up, mall retailers are going to see a significant decline in sales.”

    There are still four weeks left to pull out the year. And hopes persists that this year will be decent.

    But online sales are hot, according to Adobe Digital Index, cited by Reuters. Online shoppers blew $1.15 billion on Thanksgiving Day, between midnight and 5 pm ET, according to Adobe Digital Index, up nearly 14% from a year ago.

    Sales by ecommerce retailers have been sizzling for years, growing consistently between 14% and 16% year-over-year and eating with voracious appetite the stale lunch of brick-and-mortar stores, particularly department stores.

    The lunch-eating process began in 2001. The chart below shows monthly department store sales, seasonally adjusted, since 1992. Note the surge in sales in the 1990s, driven by population growth, an improving economy, and inflation (retail sales are mercifully not adjusted for inflation). But sales began to flatten out in 1999. The spike in January 2001 (on a seasonally adjusted basis!) marked the end of the great American department store boom:


    Even as the US fell into a recession in March 2001, ecommerce took off. But department store sales began their long decline, from nearly $20 billion in January 2001 to just $12.7 billion in October 2016, despite 14% population growth and 36% inflation!

    The decline of department stores is finding no respite during the holiday season. Not-seasonally-adjusted data spikes in October, November, and December. But these spikes have been shrinking, from their peak in December 2000 of $34.3 billion to $23.4 billion in December 2015, a 32% plunge, despite, once again, 14% population growth and 36% inflation!



    In other words: the brick-and-mortar operations of department stores are becoming irrelevant.

    Ecommerce sales include all kinds of merchandise, not just the merchandise available in department stores. So it’s a broader measure. They have skyrocket from $4.5 billion in Q4 1999 ($1.5 billion a month on average) to $101 billion in Q3 2016 ($33.7 billion a month on average). This chart compares ecommerce and department store sales on a quarterly basis:


    The only time ecommerce sales fell beyond normal seasonal variations was during the Financial Crisis. This year too, they’re booming at the expense of department stores and brick-and-mortar retailers in general.

    Department stores have begun shuttering stores and selling off properties, not only zombie companies like Sears, but also relatively healthy companies (in comparison to Sears), including Macy’s, which announced another wave of store closings in August and sold its men’s store at Union Square in San Francisco, at peak dollars, for redevelopment.

    Brick-and-mortar department stores are dying a slow death, and nothing is going to save them. It will just take a while. The good ones will be able to grow their online presence and survive in trimmed-down form. The bad ones will fall by the wayside. Investors thinking that excellent strategic planning and execution can produce some kind of lasting upswing are deluding themselves. Even a miraculous multi-year boom in the overall economy can’t stop brick-and-mortar operations of department stores from turning into zombies.

    Retail sales cannot expect much support from auto sales as the “Car Recession” is now expected to spread to 2017. Read… Strongest Pillar of Shaky US Economy has Cracked

    http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/25/bla...re-were-today/

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Six Million Americans Have Stopped Paying Their Car Loans, and it's becoming a 'significant concern'
    http://www.businessinsider.com/auto-...ny-fed-2016-11

    6 million Americans have stopped paying their car loans, and it's becoming a 'significant concern'



    Screen Shot 2016 11 30 at 9.44.17 AM The delinquency rate for subprime is ticking up. Liberty Street Economics

    There is a lot of talk out there about the auto-loan market right now.

    Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has said the auto-lending market should "scare the heck out of everybody," while the auto-lending practices of some used-car dealerships has been given the John Oliver treatment on TV.

    It's a topic we've been paying attention to as well. In a presentation in September at the Barclays Financial Services Conference, Gordon Smith, the chief executive for consumer and community banking at JPMorgan, set out some eye-opening statistics on the market.

    Now the New York Federal Reserve is taking a closer look at the market. In a blog published Wednesday on the New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics site, researchers highlighted the deteriorating performance of subprime auto loans and set off the alarm.

    "The worsening in the delinquency rate of subprime auto loans is pronounced, with a notable increase during the past few years," the report said.

    To be clear, the overall delinquency rate for auto loans is pretty stable, and the majority are performing well.

    There are, however, signs of stress in the subprime market segment, which has seen rapid growth. Here are the key numbers from the report:

    The subprime delinquency rate for the trailing four quarter period moved to 2% in the third quarter. The only other time it was 2% or more was in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    Subprime auto loan originations hit $31.3 billion in the third quarter, down from $33.6 billion in the second quarter. Bank and credit unions originated $9.5 billion in subprime auto loans in the period, a record high.

    Outstanding subprime auto loan balances now stand at $280.2 billion, a record high. For perspective, the pre-crisis high was $249.5 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2007.

    In other words, the subprime delinquency rate is creeping up, while the subprime market is ballooning in size. The Liberty Street Economics post, written by Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, said:

    "The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans. This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments."

    Screen Shot 2016 11 30 at 10.38.19 AM Subprime auto-loan issuance has been on the rise. Liberty Street Economics

    This research has broader significance beyond the auto-loan market. We've previously reported at length on the worrying state of US consumer finances.

    According to UBS research, 65%, 36%, and 22% of lower-, middle-, and higher-income cohorts are "stressed." That means their income falls below or barely covers their expenses. And almost one in five stressed households, or 18%, agreed or strongly agreed with the likelihood of a default over the next year.

    When these stressed households were asked what debt they were most likely to default on, auto loans ranked third, behind credit cards and student debt.

    "Even though the balances of subprime loans are somewhat smaller on average, the increased level of distress associated with subprime loan delinquencies is of significant concern, and likely to have ongoing consequences for affected households," the Liberty Street Economics post said.


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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Hmm... I wonder if I should purchase a tow truck...

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Thanks To 'Fight For $15' Minimum Wage, McDonald's Unveils Job-Replacing Self-Service Kiosks Nationwide

    Capital Flows ,

    Guest commentary curated by Forbes Opinion. Avik Roy, Opinion Editor.

    Guest post written by
    Ed Rensi

    Mr. Rensi is the former president and CEO of McDonald’s USA.


    McDonald's restaurant employees rally after walking off the job to demand a $15 per hour wage and union rights during nationwide 'Fight for $15 Day of Disruption' protests on November 29, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. (David McNew/Getty Images)


    As the labor union-backed Fight for $15 begins yet another nationwide strike on November 29, I have a simple message for the protest organizers and the reporters covering them: I told you so.

    It brings me no joy to write these words. The push for a $15 starter wage has negatively impacted the career prospects of employees who were just getting started in the workforce while extinguishing the businesses that employed them. I wish it were not so. But it’s important to document these consequences, lest policymakers elsewhere decide that the $15 movement is worth embracing.

    Let’s start with automation. In 2013, when the Fight for $15 was still in its growth stage, I and others warned that union demands for a much higher minimum wage would force businesses with small profit margins to replace full-service employees with costly investments in self-service alternatives. At the time, labor groups accused business owners of crying wolf. It turns out the wolf was real.

    Earlier this month, McDonald’s announced the nationwide roll-out of touchscreen self-service kiosks. In a video the company released to showcase the new customer experience, it’s striking to see employees who once would have managed a cash register now reduced to monitoring a customer’s choices at an iPad-style kiosk.

    It’s not just McDonald’s that has embraced job-replacing technology. Numerous restaurant chains (both quick service and full service) have looked to computer tablets as a solution for rising labor costs that won't adversely impact the customer’s experience. Eatsa, a fully-automated restaurant concept, now has five locations—all in cities or states that have embraced a $15 minimum wage. And in a scene stolen from The Jetsons, the Starship delivery robot is now navigating the streets of San Francisco with groceries and other consumer goods. The company’s founder pointed to a rising minimum wage as a key factor driving the growth of his automated delivery business.

    Of course, not all businesses have the capital necessary to shift from full-service to self-service. And that brings me to my next correct prediction--that a $15 minimum wage would force many small businesses to lay off staff, seek less-costly locations, or close altogether.

    Tragically, these stories—in California in particular--are too numerous to cite in detail here. They include a bookstore in Roseville, a pub in Fresno, restaurants and bakeries in San Francisco, a coffee shop in Berkeley, grocery stores in Oakland, a grill in Santa Clara, and apparel manufacturers through the state. In September of this year, nearly one-quarter of restaurant closures in the Bay Area cited labor costs as one of the reasons for shutting down operations. And just this past week, a California-based communications firm announced it was moving 75 call center jobs from San Diego to El Paso, Texas, citing California’s rising minimum as the “deciding factor.” (Dozens of additional stories can be found at the website FacesOf15.com.)


    A crowd of about 350 protesters stand on Broadway in front of a McDonald's restaurant, Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)


    Other states are also learning the same basic economic lesson: Customers have a limit to what they will pay for service. Voters in Washington, Colorado, Maine and Arizona voted to raise minimum wages on Election Day, convinced of the policy’s merits after millions of dollars were spent by union advocates. In the immediate aftermath, family-owned restaurants, coffee shops and even childcare providers have struggled to absorb the coming cost increase—with parents paying the cost through steeper childcare bills, and employees paying the cost through reduced shift hours or none at all.

    The out-of-state labor groups who funded these initiatives aren’t shedding tears over the consequences. Like their Soviet-era predecessors who foolishly thought they could centrally manage prices and business operations to fit an idealistic worldview, economic reality keeps ruining the model of all gain and no pain. This brings me to my last correct prediction, which is that the Fight for $15 was always more a creation of the left-wing Service Employees International Union (SEIU) rather than a legitimate grassroots effort. Reuters reported last year that, based on federal filings, the SEIU had spent anywhere from $24 million to $50 million on the its Fight for $15 campaign, and the number has surely increased since then.

    This money has bought the union a lot of protesters and media coverage. You can expect more of it on November 29. But the real faces of the Fight for $15 are the young people and small business owners who have had their futures compromised. Those faces are not happy ones.



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    "Your grandchildren will live under communism."
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    until you値l finally wake up and find you already have communism.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Top Ex-White House Economist Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time

    December 25, 2016

    Just over six years ago, in December of 2010, we wrote "Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society", in which we predicted - and showed - that in light of the underlying changes resulting from the second great depression, whose full impacts remain masked by trillions in monetary stimulus and soon, perhaps fiscal, America is shifting from a traditional work force, one where the majority of new employment is retained on a full-time basis, to a "gig" economy, where workers are severely disenfranchised, and enjoy far less employment leverage, job stability and perks than their pre-crash peers. It also explains why despite the 4.5% unemployment rate, which the Fed has erroneously assumed is indicative of job market at "capacity", wage growth not only refuses to materialize, but as we showed yesterday, the growth in real disposable personal income was the lowest since 2014.



    When we first penned our article, it was dubbed "fringe" tinfoil hattery, or in the latest vernacular, "fake news."

    Fast forward 6 years, when a report by Harvard and Princeton economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, confirms exactly what we warned. In their study, the duo show that from 2005 to 2015, the proportion of Americans workers engaged in what they refer to as “alternative work” soared during the Obama era, from 10.7% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2015. Alternative, or "gig" work is defined as "temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors or freelancers", and is generally unsteady, without a fixed paycheck and with virtually no benefits.

    The two economists also found that each of the common types of alternative work increased from 2005 to 2015—with the largest changes in the number of independent contractors and workers provided by contract firms, such as janitors that work full-time at a particular office, but are paid by a janitorial services firm.




    Krueger, who until 2013 was also the top White House economist serving as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, was "surprised" by the finding.

    Quoted by quartz, he said “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment.

    While the finding is good news for some, such as graphic designers and lawyers who hate going to an office, for whom new technology and Obamacare has made it more appealing to become an independent contractor. But for those seeking a steady administrative assistant office job, the market is grim. It also explains why despite an apparent recovery in the labor market, wage growth has been non-existant, due to the lack of career advancement and salary increase options for this vast cohort which was hired over the past decade.

    The decline of conventional full-time work has impacted every demographic. Whether this change is good or bad depends on what kinds of jobs people want. “Workers seeking full-time, steady work have lost,” said Krueger. He then added, perhaps sarcastically, that “while many of those who value flexibility and have a spouse with a steady job have probably gained.”

    Yes, well, spousal support aside, it also confirms another troubling finding this website reported first earlier this month, namely that the number of multiple jobholders has recently hit the highest number this century.



    Not surprisingly, the study found that young workers represented the largest growth of contractors who frequently do not receive any kind of benefits, even when they are working full-time. The issue is particularly frustrating to employees in the entertainment industry where media conglomerates rely on freelancers for long periods of time without offering benefits, an arrangement frequently referred to as “permalance.”

    None of these "qualitative" aspects, however, matter to the outgoing president, who believes his administration was a net positive for workers.

    "Since I signed Obamacare into law (in 2010), our businesses have added more than 15 million new jobs," said Obama, during his farewell press conference last Friday.

    He did not delve into the details of just what those 15 million new jobs were. Now we know; and we also know why the Fed is making a huge mistake in thinking it can hike rates and tighten financial conditions, to reverse engineer wage growth, when corporations are guaranteed to not increase wages even in response to higher rates, as the data above confirms that the amount of slack in the economy is vastly greater than virtually all economists are willing to admit.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    CalPERS Cuts Pension Benefits For First Time

    December 20, 2016

    The unthinkable just happened in Loyalton, California, a small remote city nestled high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

    For the first time in its 85-year history, the California Public Employees Retirement System, CalPERS, is drastically cutting benefits for public retirees. Starting January 1st, four retired City of Loyalton public employees will have their pensions cut 60 percent. For 71-year-old Patsy Jardin, that means her pension will drop from about $49,000 a year to a little more than $19,000.

    In an interview with the FOX Business Network, Patsy asked, “How am I going to make it now? What am I going to do?”

    Fellow Loyalton retiree John Cussins is asking the same question since his pension will also drop 60 percent, to $1,523 a month.

    “It’s not cheap to live here when you’ve got to go on a 100-mile trip just to go to a hospital or a doctor to get your groceries and things and stuff,” he said. “Now, not to have that money we’re going to have to skimp on everything we got.”

    John worked about 22 years for the City of Loyalton, Patsy worked there for 34 years. Both of them thought their pensions were safe when they retired since the city had always paid its CalPERS bills in full.

    But three years ago, the City Council in Loyalton voted to leave CalPERS in order to save money. At that time, CalPERS informed the city its pension accounts were only 40 percent funded despite the fact Loyalton had paid all its previous bills.

    “The City of Loyalton defaulted on their retirees,” CalPERS Deputy Executive Officer Brad Pacheco said. “They made a bad decision and those retirees are going to suffer for it.”

    John and Patsy say CalPERS cares more about the 3,000-plus cities towns and municipal entities that pay into the fund than the people the pension fund is supposed to cover in retirement.

    Like Loyalton, CalPERS is far from fully funded, only 65 percent. That means right now CalPERS has 65 cents for every dollar that it needs to provide pension benefits for almost two million people.

    Some of them are still working and not yet receiving pension benefits. The rest are retired and drawing funds from CalPERS.

    Pacheco, the CalPERS spokesperson, told FOX Business network the pension fund is healthy but in a negative cash flow position.

    “We are paying out more in benefits than we are taking in in contributions,” he said.

    CalPERS pension debt is roughly $164 billion and mostly likely will grow larger in coming years.

    For several decades, CalPERS predicted its investments would earn a 7.5% return. Pension funds call that return on investment a “discount rate”. A higher “discount rate” like 7.5% allows politicians to avoid raising taxes or cut spending to meet their obligations to public employees.

    A lower “discount rate” requires cities to pay more each year into the pension fund to keep it solvent. CalPERS is actually considering cutting its “discount rate” to just 6.4% to reflect what it expects to be smaller returns in the future. That will require cities, towns and other municipal entities in the CalPERS system to pay more money to cover their employees. Some may have to raise taxes to do it. Others may opt to leave CalPERS just as Loyalton did.

    But those that leave may be shocked to learn their pensions are less than fully funded. That’s why Patsy Jardin thinks CalPERS is using her plight to send a message to other California public employees and cities, that despite tight budgets, dropping CalPERS may come with consequences.

    She said: “I just think they are setting an example out of the four of us, I really do. I just think we are the ones who are going to pay for this, for all retirees.”

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Former Soros Associate, Sperandeo Is Right, There Will Be ‘Absolute F*cking Chaos’ Across The Globe
    February 03, 2017

    On the heels of a wild week where the Fed left interest rates unchanged and the U.S. jobs release sent the Dow back above 20,000, top trends forecaster in the world Gerald Celente told King World News that Victor Sperandeo is right, there will be “absolute f*cking chaos” across the globe.

    Eric King: “Gerald, the KWN the interview with Victor Sperandeo, who used to work with Leon Cooperman and George Soros, is going incredibly viral. Sperandeo warned that within a couple of months there is going to be ‘absolute,’ and he used an expletive here, ‘f*cking chaos’ around the world.

    This guy is extremely well-connected, he has a fantastic reputation, he’s made a lot of money for a lot of people, and he oversees more than $3 billion. What are your thoughts on what Sperandeo had to say?”

    We Are Going To See Chaos
    Gerald Celente: “Look, if Sperandeo is correct, we are gong to see the ‘f*cking chaos’ that he is talking about, and it’s going to be global…


    And it’s not (sometime) in the future, it’s (directly) in front of us. Sperandeo is right on target. And one of the things he said was:

    “The populist movement, which are people who have been f*cked, are moving away from the globalist movement.”

    King World News - Gerald Celente - Sperandeo Is Right, There Will Be ‘Absolute F*cking Chaos’ Across The Globe“I’ve Never Seen A Situation Like This”

    This is what we’ve been writing about. People are tired of globalization and multi-nationalization that has robbed them of their future. So what we are saying is that it’s a global breakup happening in front of everybody’s eyes. And yes, there’s going to be chaos. That’s why we are bullish on gold. He’s 100 percent right.

    Everything that Victor Sperandeo is saying I agree with. But it’s bigger than that. This is global. It’s rippling around the world. I’ve never seen a situation like this one since I’ve been forecasting trends going back to 1980…

    To continue listening to the powerful KWN audio interview with top trends forecaster in the world Gerald Celente

    http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-2-4-17/



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    添ou Americans are so gullible.
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    until you値l finally wake up and find you already have communism.

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