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Thread: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Obama: Top Tax Rate Should Be 28% for Corporations, 40% for Small Businesses

    July 30, 2013

    The New York Times reports that President Obama is reviving an old proposal to lower the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 28 percent (and 25 percent for manufacturers). Obama's push to lower the corporate tax rate to 28 percent comes less than a year after he raised the top individual income tax rate, paid by many small businesses, to 39.6 percent.

    In a speech delivered Tuesday afternoon, Obama did not explain why he thinks it's a sound economic idea to raise the top marginal tax rate on small businesses but lower it for corporations.

    "Right now, our tax code is so riddled with wasteful loopholes that many companies doing the right thing and investing in America pay 35%, while the corporations with the best accountants stash their money abroad and pay little or nothing at all," Obama said, according to the text of his prepared remarks. "I’m willing to simplify our tax code in a way that closes those loopholes, ends incentives to ship jobs overseas, and lowers rates for businesses that create jobs right here in America."

    Neither Obama's Tuesday speech nor his February 2012 corporate tax reform plan explained in detail which loopholes would be closed. During the 2012 presidential campaign, the Obama campaign hammered Mitt Romney for not saying which loopholes he would close to pay for a proposed reduction in individual income tax rates.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    I wish I were President and could just make decisions for everyone in the country.

    I'd set MY tax rate at 2%....

    And other politicians would be at 93%.

    7% is all they need to keep, after taxes, and after pay cuts.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    The
    SUMMER OF RECOVERY - PART 4

    continues...

    Share Of Young Adults Living With Their Parents Hits Four-Decade High

    Declining employment, rising college enrollment, and declining marriage rates among Millennials appear to be behind the trend, which was studied by the Pew Research Center

    August 1, 2013

    More than a third of young adults lived at their parents’ home in 2012, the highest rate in at least four decades, according to a new study by the Pew Research Center.

    Thirty-six percent of America’s so-called Millennial generation – young adults aged 18 to 31 – lived at home last year, compared with 32 percent in 2007, prior to the Great Recession. In 2009, the year the recession officially ended, 34 percent of Millennials lived at home.

    “The steady rise in the share of young adults who live in their parents’ home appears to be driven by a combination of economic, educational and cultural factors,” the Pew report states.

    Key among those factors are declining employment, rising college enrollment, and declining marriage rates, according to the report.

    “I think part of this trend is indeed a reflection of the weak labor market and difficult job prospects, says Richard Fry, the report’s author. “More young adults are living with their mom or dad, but nationally, jobholding hasn’t really increased much.”

    In 2012, 63 percent of 18-to-31-year-olds had jobs, compared with 70 percent in 2007. Millennials without jobs were much more likely to live at home than their employed counterparts: 45 percent to 29 percent, according to the report.

    Over the past five years, the percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds enrolled in college rose from 35 percent in March 2007 to 39 percent in March 2012. Overall, at least a third and perhaps as many as half of the Millennials living at home are college students, and this includes those who live in college dormitories during the academic year, according to the report.

    The percentage of married Millennials, aged 18 to 31, declined from 30 percent in 2007 to 25 percent in 2012.

    Lauren Rikleen, executive in residence at the Boston College Center for Work & Family who is writing a book about Millennials in the workforce, says she meets Millennials living at home “all the time.”

    “I don’t see any stigma at all anymore. The stigma would be a sense of wistfulness that they wished they were independent. I see more often a sense of real appreciation for the safety net,” she says.

    “By and large, it’s really interesting to watch because in many respects, it’s become normative because the options are so limited," she says. "Home is the place where they take you in."

    A separate Pew study last year found that Millennials are largely happy with their situation, with 78 percent satisfied with their living arrangements.

    Less research has been published about how parents are feeling. A guide published last year by AARP offered eight tips for parents when their adult kids move back home. Among them: No hot meals all the time, set a deadline, and don’t be an ATM machine.

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    Obamacare Full Frontal: Of 953,000 Jobs Created In 2013, 77%, Or 731,000 Are Part-Time

    August 2, 2013

    When the payroll report was released last month, the world finally noticed what we had been saying for nearly three years: that the US was slowly being converted to a part-time worker society. This slow conversion accelerated drastically in the last few months, and especially in June, when part time jobs exploded higher by 360K while full time jobs dropped by 240K. In July we are sad to report that America's conversation to a part-time worker society is not "tapering": according to the Household Survey, of the 266K jobs created (note this number differs from the establishment survey), only 35% of jobs, or 92K, were full time. The rest were... not.



    What is worse, however, is when one looks at job creation broken down by "quality" in all of 2013. The chart below does the bottom line some justice:



    But what really shows what is going on in America at least in 2013, is the following summary: of the 953K jobs "created" so far in 2013, only 23%, or 222K, were full-time. Part-time jobs? 731K or 953K of total.



    Source: Part-Time and Full-Time and BLS

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Did China Just Fire The First Salvo Towards A New Gold Standard?


    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2013 22:19 -0400

    In a somewhat shockingly blunt comment from the mouthpiece of Chinese officialdom, Yao Yudong of the PBoC's monetary policy committee has called for a new Bretton Woods system to strengthen the management of global liquidity. In an article in the China Securities Journal, Yao called for more power to the IMF as international copperation and supervision are needed. While comments seem somewhat barbed towards the rest of the world's currency devaluers, given China's growing physical gold demand and the fixed-exchange-rate peg that 'Bretton Woods' represents, and contrary to prevailing misconceptions that the SDR may be the currency of the future, China just may opt to have its own hard asset backed optionality for the future; suggesting the new 'bancor' would be the barbarous relic (or perhaps worse for the US, the Renminbi). Of course, the writing has been on the wall for China's push to end the dollar reserve supremacy for over two years as we have dutifully noted - since no 'world reserve currency' lasts forever.



    Over the last two years, we have noted:

    As a reminder, we noted here:

    The question why China has been scrambling to internationalize the CNY
    has nothing to do with succumbing to Western demands at reflating its currency to appreciate it and thus to push its current account even lower in the country with the shallowest stock market and the most bank deposits (i.e., most prone to sudden, abrupt bursts of inflation), nearly double those of the US, and everything to do with preparing the world for the "final monetarism frontier", which will take place when the BOJ's reflation experiment fails, and last remaining source (at least before Africa, but that is the topic for another day) of credit formation - the PBOC - finally ramps up.

    As we pointed out a few days ago when we discussed the accelerating Chinese credit impulse and its soaring 240% debt-to-GDP ratio:

    What should become obvious is that in order to maintain its unprecedented (if declining) growth rate, China has to inject ever greater amounts of credit into its economy, amounts which will push its total credit pile ever higher into the stratosphere, until one day it pulls a Europe and finds itself in a situation where there are no further encumberable assets (for secured loans), and where ever-deteriorating cash flows are no longer sufficient to satisfy the interest payments on unsecured debt, leading to what the Chinese government has been desperate to avoid: mass corporate defaults.



    At that point it will be up to the PBOC to do what the Fed, the ECB, the BOE and the BOJ have been doing: remove any pretense of money creation via the commercial bank complex (even if these are merely glorified government-controlled entities), and proceed to outright monetization of de novo created assets, thus flooding the system with as much money as is needed to preserve the illusion of growth. Naturally, with the Chinese stock market having proven itself to be a horrible inflation trap (and as a result the bulk of new levered money creation goes into real estate), the inflation explosion that would result would be epic.

    And that, in a nutshell, is the reason why China is doing all it can to prepare for the moment when capital flows will soar once the PBOC no longer has the option to extend and pretend its moment of entry into the global reflation race. Yes, it will be caught between a rock (hyperinflation) and a hard place (a very hard crash landing), but the fact that neither of those outcomes has a happy ending will hardly stop the PBOC from at least preserving the alternative. That alternative will of course be to be ready and able to hit the switch when the BOJ's printer burns out, and someone else has to step in and fill its shoes in the global "money creation" strategy, which sadly is the only one the world has left.

    Finally, the question then will be not if, or how long, the US Dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, when even the Developed world is forced to admit the PBOC's monetarist primacy over the Fed, but just how much unencumbered gold one has to hedge against what will be the final, global bout of hyperinflation, the one spurred by every single DM and EM central bank is forced to print for dear fiat status quo life, or else.
    Last edited by BRVoice; August 5th, 2013 at 12:20.

    Saint Paul in the Ephesians 6:12


    "For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms."



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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Camden, New Jersey Tent City

    August 2, 2013

    Tent cities have popped up across New Jersey including the state's poorest city.

    Meg Baker chased the story of Camden's tent city. Residing off Route 38 at Wilson Boulevard under an overpass, through woods and down a path of trash lays a community of people living in tents. This particular community was relocated from Federal Street and it's inhabited by an array of people: addicts, people who have fallen on hard times and some with mental illness.

    Baker took a tour of this run down community and the pictures show just how heart-wrenching this situation really is. Among the homes are decomposing food, broken furniture, and feral cats.

    When asked how long a woman had lived there, she only answered, "Too long."

    Many of the people who live in the Camden tent city walk down to Cathedral Kitchen. The chef says he feeds about a hundred people a day from the tent city.

    "This is just a lot of good people who fell on bad times," Executive Chef Jonathan Jernigan says. "Lost their jobs, lost their family, a lot of depression and mental illness."

    In the studio the Chasers discussed what needs to happen to help these people.

    Baker plans to visit a tent city in Essex County, which has the largest population of homeless people in New Jersey. She also plans to go to a Newark tent city.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    The Overworked And The Idle

    July 15, 2013


    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

    A society of the increasingly overworked and involuntarily idle is not a stable or happy one.

    Though I don't have any data on this, anecdotal evidence suggests the nation's workforce is dividing into two classes: the overworked and the idle. The overworked work more than 40 hours a week and are increasingly given impossible workloads, while the idle can't find any work or can only get part-time jobs with limited hours.

    This bifurcation crosses income and class lines: highly paid and poorly paid workers alike are overtasked, and both the highly trained and low-skilled are idled.

    The income stratification in the U.S. workforce suggests that America is now a Three-and-a-Half Class Society (October 22, 2012):

    The entrenched incumbents on top (the "half class"), the high-earners who pay most of the taxes (the first class), the working poor who pay Social Security payroll taxes and sales taxes (the second class), and State dependents who pay nothing (the third class).

    This class structure has political ramifications. In effect, those paying most of the tax are in a pressure cooker: the lid is sealed by the entrenched incumbents on top, and the fire beneath is the Central State's insatiable need for more tax revenues to support its entrenched incumbents and growing army of dependents.

    In Bifurcation Nation (June 24, 2013), I discussed the cultural and political divides that overlay these income-based classes:

    There is a palpable zeitgeist that the nation is bifurcating into two camps which no longer overlap or communicate using the same cultural signifiers and symbology.There is also a growing awareness that the divide between very wealthy and the middle income households has widened into an enormous canyon of inequality.

    These classes are coalescing into a Tyranny of the Majority, where the entrenched incumbents in State fiefdoms and state-funded cartels are joined by state dependents in demanding higher taxes on the 25% who pay 90% of the Federal income taxes.

    This leads to a systemic question: Is Democracy Possible in a Corrupt Society? (November 12, 2012)

    We can phrase the question as WTAFA Corollary #1: (named in honor of my book Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It (print) (Kindle)):

    If the citizenry cannot replace a dysfunctional government and/or limit the power of the financial Aristocracy at the ballot box, the nation is a democracy in name only.

    If the citizenry cannot dislodge a parasitic, predatory financial/political Aristocracy via elections, then "democracy" is merely a public-relations facade, a simulacra designed to create the illusion that the citizenry "have a voice" when in fact they are debt-serfs in a neofeudal State.

    In other words, the overworked are powerless to change the system they serve. The overworked often have big mortgages to pay, kids in college, huge medical bills and a high-cost lifestyle that is a legacy of better times, a lifestyle they try to maintain even as their net income after taxes and healthcare insurance declines year after year.

    The involuntarily idle are equally powerless, of course, but they tend to think the status quo is rewarding the overworked. The overworked, meanwhile, look with envy on the involuntarily idle who manage to live pretty well on government programs and transfers.

    There are structural reasons why the managerial and most productive classes are increasingly overworked. Our entire economy is suffering from diminishing returns: global competition is eating away at profit margins, and increasing debt no longer boosts the gross domestic product (GDP).



    To maintain profits and output, managers are given additional duties even as support staff is trimmed. I have often wondered if the fascination with the TV series Mad Men wasn't partly the result of our amazement at how little these guys actually worked and how many had secretaries/admin assistants.

    This phenomenon is also visible in low-pay service work, where adverts for poorly paid administrative jobs demand familiarity with a dozen software programs, and fast-food workers are expected to maintain a punishing level of productivity for minimum wages.

    This trend to loading existing employees with more work while keeping pay more or less the same is seen as cost-effective: training a new hire is both costly and risky, as once the training is complete the new hire will likely be poached by a competitor who doesn't have an expensive training program.

    The overworked, from minimum wage earner to manager, are increasingly unsympathetic to workers in government fiefdoms who work less than 40 hours a week and enjoy luxe benefits and pay scales that are simply unavailable in the private sector.

    Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) unions who recently went on strike, paralyzing public transit for 6.5 million inhabitants of the San Francisco Bay Area, were apparently caught off guard by the public animosity to their demands for 23% raises on top of their 50%-above-market base salaries and unavailable-at-any-private-job benefits.

    Memo to BART union members: the overworked earn on average slightly over half ($47,000) of what you earn for "driving" an automated train and staffing station offices ($80,000), and those who earn more than you in the private sector often work 50% more than your 37 hours a week in highly stressful jobs. The highly paid private-sector techies you envy constitute 2% of the workforce, and they work a lot more hours than you in intrinsically insecure industries.

    The self-employed are in the Red Queen's Race, running as fast as they can to keep from falling into poverty. The self-employed pay all the taxes and healthcare costs paid by the employer, so their Real-World Tax Rate is 75% (July 5, 2012). The self-employed people I know are working the equivalent of two jobs to earn the net of one job, and that's if they're doing well. Thus it's no surprise that the ranks of the self-employed have thinned:



    The stress levels of the overworked are high due to impossible workloads, while the involuntarily idle suffer from financial stress and depression. This is one systemic reason why the nation's mental and physical health continues to deteriorate.

    Yes, there are pockets of state fiefdoms and private sectors where workers are well-compensated for low-stress work, but these are exceptions, not the norm. No wonder those who can do so are quitting and filing for Social Security or tapping their 401K retirement plans to get by, or otherwise opting out of the labor force.

    A society of the increasingly overworked and involuntarily idle is not a stable or happy one. Pressure is building along multiple fault lines beneath the supposedly expanding American economy. What's really expanding are stress, ill health, chronic depression, financial insecurity and the frustrations of the powerless.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    I'm finding it incomprehensible that people are living in tents, though I DO know someone who did it in my own family. We didn't even KNOW they were. On the other hand, they were doing it because they'd been booted out of their apartment for not paying the bills... and they were using what money they had on things they probably shouldn't have been doing.

    It all comes down to one thing, priorities. If you spend your money on drugs instead of food then fuck you.

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    40% Of US Workers Now Earn Less Than 1968 Minimum Wage

    August 5, 2013

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Are American workers paid enough? That is a topic that is endlessly debated all across this great land of ours. Unfortunately, what pretty much everyone can agree on is that American workers are not making as much as they used to after you account for inflation. Back in 1968, the minimum wage in the United States was $1.60 an hour. That sounds very small, but after you account for inflation a very different picture emerges. Using the inflation calculator that the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides, $1.60 in 1968 is equivalent to $10.74 today.

    And of course the official government inflation numbers have been heavily manipulated to make inflation look much lower than it actually is, so the number for today should actually be substantially higher than $10.74, but for purposes of this article we will use $10.74. If you were to work a full-time job at $10.74 an hour for a full year (with two weeks off for vacation), you would make about $21,480 for the year.

    That isn't a lot of money, but according to the Social Security Administration, 40.28% of all workers make less than $20,000 a year in America today. So that means that more than 40 percent of all U.S. workers actually make less than what a full-time minimum wage worker made back in 1968. That is how far we have fallen.

    The other day I wrote an article which discussed the transition that we are witnessing in our economy right now. Good paying full-time jobs are disappearing, and they are being replaced by low paying part-time jobs. So far this year, 76.7 percent of the jobs that have been "created" in the U.S. economy have been part-time jobs.

    That would be depressing enough, but what makes it worse is that wages for many of these low paying jobs have actually been declining over the past decade even as the cost of living keeps going up. The following is from a recent USA Today article...

    In the years between 2002 and 2012, real median wages dropped by at least 5% in five of the top 10 low-wage jobs, including food preparers and housekeepers.

    So where have the good jobs gone?


    Well, there are three long-term trends that are absolutely crushing American workers right now.

    First of all, thanks to our very foolish politicians American workers have been merged into a global labor pool where they must directly compete for jobs with workers on the other side of the planet that live in countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages. This has resulted in millions upon millions of good jobs leaving this country. Big corporations can pad their profits by taking a job from an American worker making $15 an hour with benefits and giving it to a worker on the other side of the globe that is willing to work for less than a dollar an hour with no benefits. Our politicians could do something about this, but they refuse to do so. Most of them are absolutely married to the idea of a one world economic system that will unite the globe. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy is going to continue to lose tens of thousands of businesses and millions upon millions of jobs to this one world economic system.

    Secondly, big corporations are replacing as many expensive workers with machines, computers and robots as they possibly can. As technology continues to advance at a blistering pace, the need for workers (especially low-skilled workers) will continue to decrease. Unfortunately, the jobs that are being lost to technology are not coming back any time soon.

    Thirdly, the overall U.S. economy has been steadily declining for more than a decade. If you doubt this, just read this article. As our economy continues to get weaker, the lack of jobs is going to become a bigger and bigger problem.

    And as our economy systematically loses good jobs, more Americans are forced to become dependent on the government.

    Back in 1979, there was about one American on food stamps for every manufacturing job. Today, there are about four Americans on food stamps for every manufacturing job.

    When I first found that statistic I was absolutely stunned. How in the world can anyone out there deny that the U.S. economy is collapsing?

    But as I mentioned above, it isn't just that the number of jobs is not what it should be. The quality of our jobs is declining as well. For example, one study found that between 1969 and 2009 the wages earned by American men between the ages of 30 and 50 declined by 27 percent after you account for inflation.

    That is a pretty stunning decline. And it has only accelerated in recent years. Median household income (adjusted for inflation) has fallen by 7.8 percent since the year 2000, and the ratio of wages and salaries to GDP in the United States is near an all-time record low.

    Most Americans are finding that their bills just keep going up but their paychecks are not. This is causing the middle class to wither away, and most families are just trying to survive from month to month at this point. In fact, according to one recent survey 76 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

    So where do we go from here?

    To some people the answer is simple. They say that we should substantially raise the minimum wage. And yes, that would definitely make life a bit better for lots of low paid workers out there, but it would also have some very negative side effects. A substantially higher minimum wage would mean higher prices at retail stores and restaurants, and it would also greatly increase the incentive that corporations have to replace American workers with foreign workers or with technology. We already have rampant unemployment in this country, and right now there are more than 100 million working age Americans that do not have a job. We certainly don't want to make that worse.

    So raising the minimum wage would not solve our problems. It would just redistribute our problems.

    What we really need to do is to return to the principles that once made this country great. In early America, we protected our markets with high tariffs. Access to the U.S. market was a privilege. Foreign domination was kept out, and our economy thrived.

    It is definitely not "conservative" and it should not be "liberal" to stand by and watch millions upon millions of our good jobs get shipped over to communist China. We need more "economic patriots" in America today, but unfortunately they appear to be a minority at this point.

    And once upon a time the U.S. economy was actually a free market system where rules, regulations and red tape were kept to a minimum. Our nation blossomed under such a system. Sadly, today we have become a nation that literally has millions of laws, rules and regulations. The control freaks seem to run everything. In fact, the Obama administration recently forced one small-time magician out in Missouri to submit a 32 page disaster plan for the little rabbit that he uses in his magic shows for kids. That is a very humorous example, but it is a perfect illustration of how absurd our system has become.

    Another thing we could do to turn this around would be to get rid of the IRS and the income tax. Did you know that the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history was during a time when there was absolutely no income tax? If you doubt this, just read this article.

    And of course probably the most important thing that we could do for our economy would be to get rid of the Federal Reserve. The Fed is a massive Ponzi scheme and it has played a primary role in creating almost every single financial bubble in the post-World War II era. Right now we are living in the greatest bond bubble in the history of the planet, and when that Fed-created bubble bursts the pain is going to be absolutely excruciating. In addition, the value of our currency has declined by over 96 percent and the size of the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger since the Fed was created. The Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems, and we desperately need to shut it down.

    Unfortunately, our politicians are not even willing to consider these solutions, and most Americans are way too busy watching Toddlers & Tiaras, Honey Boo Boo and other mindless television programs to be bothered with the real problems that our country is facing.

    So needless to say, the great economic storm that is coming is not going to be averted. Most of the country is still asleep, and most people are going to get absolutely blindsided by the economic nightmare that is rapidly approaching.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Walmart Earnings Disaster Exposes a Collapsing Economy: Davidowitz

    August 15, 2013

    Walmart (WMT) reported earnings of $1.24 a share this morning on revenues of $116.2 billion. Analysts had been expecting $1.25 on $118.5 billion. Sales in stores open more than a year declined 0.3%. Walmart also guided lower for the full year citing a "challenging sales and operating environment." The stock is off sharply and at risk of going negative for the last 52 weeks.

    Those are the numbers, but not the whole story. Walmart is the thermometer of the American economy. Disregard the government data. Jobs and GDP and all the rest are at best inaccurate measures of the economy and at worst flat out corrupt. Walmart is capitalism writ large. The entire organization is focused on nothing but selling goods and services to Americans. It may be an empire in decline, but Walmart sells more than $1 billion worth of merchandise per day in a bad quarter. When Walmart misses estimates, it can only mean one of two things: either Walmart or the American economy is weaker than anyone thought.

    "Walmart is a terrific operator... They didn't suddenly become stupid," says says Howard Davidowitz, one of the top retail minds in the country. "The economy is in collapse. That's what's going on."

    Davidowitz points out that Walmart isn't just a store for the downtrodden. They have 150 million customers which collectively spent less in Walmart stores than in the same period last year. Davidowitz says another 50 million customers shop at Target (TGT), which he also expects to have negative comp stores sales when it reports next week.

    Don't forget that Macy's (M) also missed expectations yesterday. Three makes a trend. The GDP data is positive and the employment data says things are improving gradually. Either the best merchants in America forgot how to sell, Americans stopped consuming beyond their means, or the economy is turning south, not getting better.

    "I don't think we're in a recession right now, but I think there's a 50 percent chance we'll be in one next year," Davidowitz shouts, and there's nothing the government is going to be able to do about it. "We've spent all the money, we've borrowed all the money, and we're in the tank."

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    18 Signs That Global Financial Markets Are Entering A Horrifying Death Spiral


    By Michael Snyder, on August 19th, 2013




    You can see it coming, can't you? The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries is skyrocketing, the S&P 500 has been down for 9 of the last 11 trading days and troubling economic news is pouring in from all over the planet. The much anticipated "financial correction" is rapidly approaching, and investors are starting to race for the exits. We have not seen so many financial trouble signs all come together at one time like this since just prior to the last major financial crisis. It is almost as if a "perfect storm" is brewing, and a lot of the "smart money" has already gotten out of stocks and bonds. Could it be possible that we are heading toward another nightmarish financial crisis? Could we see a repeat of 2008 or potentially even something worse? Of course a lot of people believe that we will never see another major financial crisis like we experienced in 2008 ever again. A lot of people think that this type of "doom and gloom" talk is foolish. It is those kinds of people that did not see the last financial crash coming and that are choosing not to prepare for the next one even though the warning signs are exceedingly clear. Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst, and right now things do not look good at all. The following are 18 signs that global financial markets are entering a horrifying death spiral...


    #1
    The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries has risen for 5 of the past 6 days, and it briefly touched the 2.90% level on Monday.

    #2 Rapidly rising interest rates are spooking investors and causing them to pull money out of bonds at a very rapid pace...


    Investors have yanked nearly $20 billion from bond mutual funds and exchange traded funds so far in August. That's the fourth highest pullback ever, according to TrimTabs data. In June, investors took out $69.1 billion -- the highest on record.


    #3
    The sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is being led by foreigners. In particular, China and Japan have been particularly aggressive in selling off bonds...


    China and Japan led an exodus from U.S. Treasuries in June after the first signals the U.S. central bank was preparing to wind back its stimulus, with data showing they accounted for almost all of a record $40.8 billion of net foreign selling of Treasuries.

    The sales were part of $66.9 billion of net sales by foreigners of long-term U.S. securities in June, a fifth straight month of outflows and the largest since August 2007, U.S. Treasury Department data showed on Thursday.

    China, the largest foreign creditor, reduced its Treasury holdings to $1.2758 trillion, and Japan trimmed its holdings for a third straight month to $1.0834 trillion. Combined, they accounted for about $40 billion in net Treasury outflows.

    #4 Thanks to rapidly rising bond yields, some of the largest exchange-traded bond funds are getting absolutely hammered right now...


    • The $18 billion iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond fund (ticker: LQD) has fallen 7.94% since May 2, according to S&P Capital IQ. That's including reinvested interest from the fund's bond holdings.

    • The 3.7 billion iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) has plunged 15.9% the same period. Longer-term bonds typically get hit harder when rates rise than shorter-term bonds. For example, the iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond fund (IEI) has fallen 3.2% since May 2.

    • PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY), which invests in government bonds issued in developing countries, has fallen 12.7%. The fund has $1.8 billion in assets.

    #5 In recent weeks we have witnessed the largest cluster of Hindenburg Omens that we have seen since prior to the last financial crisis.

    #6 George Soros has bet a tremendous amount of money that the S&P 500 is going to be heading down.

    #7 At this point, the S&P 500 has fallen for 9 out of the last 11 trading days.

    #8 Margin debt has spiked to extremely dangerous levels. This is a pattern that we also saw just before the last financial crash and just before the dotcom bubble burst...


    The exuberant mood comes as margin debt on Wall Street hovers near $377bn, just below its all-time high and well above peaks before the dotcom crash and the Lehman crisis.

    “Investors have rarely been more levered than today,” said Deutsche Bank, warning that the spike in margin debt is a “red flag” and should be watched closely.

    #9 The growth rate of new commercial bank loans and leases is now the slowest that it has been since the end of the last financial crisis.

    #10 According to a shocking new report, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are masking "billions of dollars" in losses. Will they need to be bailed out again just like they were during the last financial crisis?

    #11 Wal-Mart reported very disappointing sales numbers for the second quarter. Sales at stores open at least a year were down 0.3%. This is a continuation of a trend that has been building for years.

    #12 U.S. consumer bankruptcies just experienced their largest quarterly increase in three years.

    #13 The velocity of money in the United States has hit another stunning new low.

    #14 The massive civil unrest in Egypt threatens to disrupt the steady flow of oil out of the Middle East...


    After last week’s bloody crackdown by the Egyptian army, fears of a disruption of oil supplies to the West have boosted the oil price. Brent crude prices were propelled to a four-month high of $111.23 on Thursday. If the turmoil gets worse – or unrest spreads to other countries – the risk premium currently factored into the price of crude is likely to increase further.

    #15 European stocks just experienced their biggest decline in six weeks.

    #16 The Japanese national debt recently crossed the quadrillion yen mark, and many are expecting the Japanese financial system to start melting down at any time.

    #17 In Indonesia, the stock market is "cratering".

    #18 In India, the yield on their 10 year government bonds has skyrocketed from 7.1 percent in May to 9.25 percent now.


    As the coming months unfold, keep a close eye on the "too big to fail" banks both in Europe and in the United States. When the next great financial crisis strikes, they will play a starring role once again. They have been incredibly reckless, and as James Rickards told Greg Hunter
    during an interview the other day, we are in much worse shape to deal with a major banking crisis than we were back in 2008...

    What’s going to cause the next crisis? Rickards says, “The problem in 2008 was too-big-to-fail banks. Well, those banks are now bigger. Their derivative books are bigger. In other words, everything that was wrong in 2008 is worse today.” Rickards goes on to warn, “The last time, in 2008 when the crisis started, the Fed’s balance sheet was $800 billion. Today, the Fed’s balance sheet is $3.3 trillion and increasing at $1 trillion a year.” Rickards contends, “You’re going to have a banking crisis worse than the last one because the banking system is bigger without the resources because the Fed is tapped out.” As far as the Fed ending the money printing, Rickards predicts, “My view is they won’t. The economy is fundamentally weak. We have 50 million on food stamps, 24 million unemployed and 11 million on disability, and all these numbers are going up.”

    We never even came close to recovering from the last financial crisis and the last recession.

    Now the next major wave of the economic collapse is coming up quickly.

    I hope that you are taking this time to prepare for the approaching storm, because it is going to be very painful.
    Last edited by BRVoice; August 21st, 2013 at 16:37.

    Saint Paul in the Ephesians 6:12


    "For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms."



  12. #152
    Expatriate American Patriot's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Someone buy my house, quick.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Eh, none of these dire predictions are new.

    The market is being sustained by unicorn flatus. As there is an unlimited supply of this, I'm unsure why anyone would be concerned?
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    I knew that... I just want someone to buy my house, quick. LOL

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    NASDAQ flat lined today... some kind of technical glitch.

    it SOUNDS like, listening to various "experts" on FNC that this is a hot item.

    FBI, White House, Treasury all are "concerned" and looking into things. Speculation is that this was a hack of some kind - some sort of external access occurred and shut things off for a few hours.

    The words "hacker" and "terrorist" are being bandied about right now.

    This is being called "a Flash Freeze" - whatever that is.

  16. #156
    Creepy Ass Cracka & Site Owner Ryan Ruck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Quote Originally Posted by American Patriot View Post
    NASDAQ flat lined today... some kind of technical glitch.

    it SOUNDS like, listening to various "experts" on FNC that this is a hot item.

    FBI, White House, Treasury all are "concerned" and looking into things. Speculation is that this was a hack of some kind - some sort of external access occurred and shut things off for a few hours.

    The words "hacker" and "terrorist" are being bandied about right now.

    This is being called "a Flash Freeze" - whatever that is.
    Hmmm...

    Google goes down earlier this week. Amazon has an outage the other day. Now the NASDAQ has this "glitch".

    Very odd all in the last week.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    It's called "probing defenses".

    Here's what I predict. One day when things are going along just fine, when there has been any "attacks" for a few weeks and things are just hunky dorey... we will suddenly be attacked in the malls, crowded places etc.

    Wall street will go offline.
    Google will go offline.
    Amazon will go offline.
    News sites (Remember NYT was down the other day) will go offline.
    The Power grid will go offline - or large portions of it will disconnect.

    This is a plan they have. It will turn out later, when the smoke and dust clears that the Russians were involved, the Chinese and North Korea had a huge hand in it, Al Qadea had a major hand in it - and they will get the blame.

    Seriously, there is a plan afoot to hit us hard and take us down.

    We've been kicked in the nuts, they are just trying to find the right timing to do the fatal chop across the neck.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    Seriously, that Google outage is believed to have been the reason for a 40% drop in internet traffic.

    And Google has been tight-lipped about the cause.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????

    They got hacked then.

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    Default Re: Financial Crisis - 2013 - ????


    Jobless Picture Is Worse Than You Think: Gallup

    August 22, 2013

    While the government next week is expected to say the unemployment picture continues its gradual improvement, one indicator shows this jobs market is the worst in a year and a half.

    Widely followed pollster Gallup puts the nation's unemployment rate at an ugly 8.6 percent in August, a startling jump from the 7.8 percent the organization recorded for July. When counting the underemployed, the rate zooms to 17.7 percent, off its 2013 high of 18.2 percent.

    The government puts the jobless figure at 7.4 percent, and 14 percent when including the underemployed and those who have quit looking.



    While Gallup's numbers have offered significant divergences from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the two numbers had been running fairly close for most of the year. In fact, Gallup's tally actually briefly slipped below the government's in April when it recorded 7.4 percent, compared to the BLS number then of 7.5 percent.

    Since reaching that April bottom, though, Gallup's numbers have surged and tracked above 8 percent for August, reaching their highest level since hitting 8.7 percent in mid-March 2012.

    The trend comes at a ticklish time for the economy.

    The Federal Reserve is contemplating an exit from its quantitative easing program in which it buys $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.

    Central bank policymakers have tied the potential QE pullback to an unemployment rate—as recorded by the BLS—in the 7 percent range, while 6.5 percent would be the minimum hurdle before the Fed would start raising its target interest rate again.

    While Gallup's numbers can be volatile, they have portended rises in the official rate.

    The data set is limited, but in previous occasions when the divergence was more than 1 percentage point "the BLS unemployment rate was flat to up over the next three months," Bespoke Investment Group said.

    To be sure, there are major caveats.

    The Gallup numbers are not seasonally adjusted, and surveying methodologies differ substantially.

    "The BLS method is statistically more rigorous. With the Gallup, you're basically doing a poll," said Jacob Oubina, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets. "The Gallup is more of a sentiment-type indicator. Either way, the unemployment rate doesn't really give you a good indicator of the true state of the labor backdrop."

    Instead, Oubina recommends focusing on the employment-to-population ratio.

    The news doesn't get any better there, though.

    The government puts that number at 58.7 percent, a level from which it has deviated little over the past four years since the end of the financial crisis and Great Recession.

    According to Gallup, that measure is 43.8 percent, plunging over the years from 63.5 percent in January 2010.

    It's not known whether the Fed is paying attention to what Gallup's polling shows. If it is, the discussions at the September Open Markets Committee meeting over tapering QE could take on a different tone.

    "The employment-to-population ratio is basically bumping along the lows of the cycle," Oubina said. "We definitely still have a long way to go."

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