The Death of the Global Warming Myth

[Ryan Ruck]

Why did this thread get moved to Science? For some reason I remember it being in Skeptics Corner????

It was. I asked for input on moving it over here a while back and no one had any opinion so I moved it.

Seemed we were dealing with much more hard science than the UFOs, ghosts, and Bigfoots of the Skeptics Forum.

[American Patriot]

Must have missed that, or if I read it, didn't think about it.

I was over digging through the Skeptic's thread looking all over for it. LOL

I finally did a search and found it in Science and thought... "hmmmmmmmmm"

[Ryan Ruck]

I thought I left a week long redirect but either it's been more than a week since I moved this or I accidentally set it as a day long redirect.

[American Patriot]

It's not a big deal. I just was SURE it was in Skeptics... and didn't find it there and wondered if I was just misremembering (or getting Alzheimer's)

[Ryan Ruck]

LOL! I've had that feeling before.

[American Patriot]

Feeling? What feeling? What are we talking about again?

LOL!

[Phil Fiord]

its colder. not warmer. its that simple.

[American Patriot]

They'd better be right.

Last year they predicted a horrible season. Wasn't bad at all.

This year, they are predicting a quiet season.

Wanna bet it's a busy one?


Experts predict quieter hurricane season

CNN International

- ‎1 hour ago‎

(CNN) -- The U.S. could be in for another quiet hurricane season, according to Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University.

[Ryan Ruck]

Great Lakes Ice Currently Highest Amount For This Late Day; Superior Could Have Ice Still In June

April 27, 2014

Lake Superior is still over 60 percent covered in ice as of yesterday Saturday April 26, 2014. The satellite pictures shown above were the latest I could find that had clear skies and good vision of the ice. These high resolution satellite images come from April 23 and April 24, 2014.

On Wednesday April 23, 2014 Lake Superior had 68 percent ice cover. According to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, the previous highest amount of ice on that date was in 1979 when there was 38 percent ice cover.

So the ice on Lake Superior is currently almost twice as much as recorded for this late date in the ice season. The records go back to 1973.

On Wednesday, Lake Michigan still had 15 percent ice cover. The highest amount in the records on that date was five percent in 1979. This means Lake Michigan has three times the previous highest ice amount on April 23.

Lake Huron was still reporting 25 percent ice, with the previous late season high at 11 percent in 1996.

Lake Erie melts quicker due to the shallow nature, but still had 7.6 percent ice on April 23, 2014. Previously on that date the highest amount of ice was three percent in 1978.

Lake Ontario still has eight-tenths of one percent ice cover. That's not much, but it is still more than the six-tenths it had in 1977.

The entire Great Lakes system still reported 35 percent ice cover this past Wednesday. The closest amount of ice at this late date was 16 percent in 1979.

Lake Superior Could Have Ice In June

I looked at the high ice years of 1977, 1978, 1979, 1994, and 1996. In a few of those years Lake Superior still had one-tenth of one percent ice covered on May 31. That tells me that given Lake Superior has nearly double its late season ice amount, ice could still be on Lake Superior in June this year.

That would be a neat thing to see, but I'm not sure most of us would want to see ice in June.

[Ryan Ruck]

Coldest Year On Record So Far In The US

May 8, 2014

[American Patriot]

globullshit warming....

[American Patriot]

Couple of things occurred to me the other day.

First:

I was putting ice in my water bottle before going out to work on the garden. I had added a half dozen or so solid, square ice cubes and filled the bottle almost to the rim, then placing the lid on it (which has a built in straw) I watched the water level rise right to the rim and was about to overflow.

Then I considered the ice inside. Being familiar with physics I already know that if I fill a glass with water and place some ice cubes in it, that when they melt the water glass won't overflow. In fact, the level might actually decrease as ice is less dense than fluid water.

So - that made me reconsider all the nonsense I've read over the years about polar melting - in particular the North Polar region, and all the images they keep showing as ice melts there, predictions of rising water levels around the world's oceans and the constant berating we keep getting from the Left wanting us to believe the ice melts will cause problems.

We know that the ice melting and refreezing is cyclical.

We ALSO know from plain, simple, elementary school physics that ice melting in a glass won't over flow it.

Thus, ice melting at the north pole is a natural occurrence, and it won't over flow the ocean or rise the levels.

Finally, the South Pole is a little different story (though not too different). Most of the glaciers there live on top of an island that is under the ice. Perhaps if all that ice melted, we might see a small rise in water levels, but it won't be a 100 feet as has been predicted in some articles.

Second:

Cows fart. They are the leading cause of "greenhouse gases". Two of the largest of these are CO2 and CH4, Carbon Dioxide and Methane.

Did you know that methane breaks up? Over a period of roughly 10 years, methane breaks down. It looks like this:




CO2 is also produced by almost every living creature on the planet. It is broken down by plants and photosynthesis.

Finally, there is something called the Law of Conservation of Mass and Energy... remember that from elementary school? I do. Very basically it states matter is neither created nor destroyed.

Thus... we have the same number of atoms before as after.

The rest of the law goes: Energy is neither created nor destroyed and the total amount of mass and energy in the universe is constant.

Gosh... one would think the scientific community who keeps randomizing their phrases from "Global Cooling" to "Global Warming" to "Climate Change" would buy a clue )or a vowel, or a constant... yes, I said "constant") and realize they can neither create nor destroy certain things.

But, I guess not.

[American Patriot]

“Settled Science” And The Return To The Dark Ages – Tea Party Nation

June 25, 2014



“Settled Science” And The Return To The Dark Ages – Tea Party Nation.

Just as an fyi “settled science” is an oxymoron and climate change is called weather!
Posted by Dwight M. Schmitz
Originally, this was meant to be a reply to John Wiseman’s “Sunday At The Movies: ‘Gorebull,’ Warming Edition” posting, but once I got typing, I realized that it would probably be long enough to warrant it’s own posting. Perhaps, Sunday At The Movies Part Deux?
Please bear with the short materials science “lecture.” I hope to show it’s relevance shortly.
While I am not a degreed scientist nor a certified engineer, I had been a materials research technician for a couple of decades. I have taken courses and attended seminars relevant to the projects I had been working on, and one of my “credentials” is as a co-holder of a U.S. patent based on our research of shape memory alloys. Having gone through all this, I was bound to pick up some scientific knowledge along the way.



For a number of years I had been a technician in the research of binary and tertiary materials phase diagrams. Simply put, a binary materials phase diagram illustrates how two (binary) elements will behave under a wide range of alloy compositions and temperatures. Tertiary diagrams illustrates how three elements will behave under a wide range of compositions and temperatures.



Binary (two elements) materials phase diagrams are well understood. Tertiary (three elements) materials phase diagrams are a combination of three binary phase diagrams. For instance, we did a lot of research on lead and aluminum alloys, so let’s consider a lead-tin-antimony tertiary phase diagram.



The three binary systems that are well understood, and lead to the tertiary diagram, are lead-tin, lead-antimony and tin-antimony.



With a thorough understanding of the three binary systems, we formed a theory about how the tertiary system of those three alloys would behave under a wide range of alloy compositions and temperatures. Given that we had a thorough understanding of the three binary systems, our theory of the tertiary system behavior USUALLY held. However, once in a while, “nature” would throw us a curve and the system would not behave as theorized. We would then have to go back and revise our theory. You can’t revise fact.



We worked with three known variables, and even with only three variables, sometimes our theory was wrong.



Now consider the planetary climate. Hundreds, if not thousands, of variables, probably few of which are thoroughly understood.



When working with that many variables that may or may not be thoroughly understood, you have to start making some assumptions on how the hundreds or thousands of variables will interact. The more unknown variables you have, the more assumptions you have to start to make and, therefore, the more potential error you introduce. If one assumption is wrong, then the subsequent assumption, based on that first assumption, will also be wrong, as will the third assumption, etc., etc. It’s a snowball effect of error due to wrong assumptions.



We have seen this snowball of error repeatedly through the last several decades. First there was the doom of global cooling. When that didn’t happen, there was the doom of global warming. Now that that isn’t happening, we’re resorting to simply calling it “climate change.” I’m familiar with climate change. I live in Wisconsin, the climate changes four times every year.



The polar ice caps were to have been melted by the turn of the century and the two coasts (east and west) were supposed to have been under water. California is still there and is, indeed, having a drought (which, as I understand, is also cyclical and predictable). Plus, the antarctic ice cap seems to be growing, not melting.
NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency), a federal agency with lots of scientists and sophisticated computers and computer models, last fall made their prediction of how this last winter was going to be – warmer than normal. The Farmer’s Almanac, on the other hand, based on history and astronomy, predicted a colder than normal winter. Oops, science got that wrong too.



I could go on about all of the “settled science” predictions, but you get the point.



What we do know, from a variety of sources (tree rings, ice and earth core samples, etc.) is that inclines and declines in average temperatures follow a sinusoidal path – they go up, they go down, ad infinitum. The amount of hard data we now have is a relative dot on the timeline of history, yet we arrogantly claim to be able to definitively predict precisely what the climate will be decades from now. Forget the fact that we’ve already been wrong for decades.



If science teaches us anything, it’s that the more we learn, the more we learn that we still have a lot to learn. “Settled science” told us that coffee was bad for you and you should drink decaf. Then it was, depending on how the coffee is decaffeinated, regular coffee might be better for you. Now, regular coffee is good for you.



For decades butter was bad because of the fat content. Now, as declared in a cover story from Time magazine, the science of fat (saturated, trans, etc.) is changing, and the cover suggests that butter might actually be good for you! Take that with a grain of salt, though (oops, sorry, salt is bad for you too, at least for now), this is the same magazine that a few years ago ran a cover story that “discovered” that there actually might be a difference between men and women! Duh.
Even the secularists for whom science has become religion have turned science on it’s head. Theory dominates over fact. If the facts don’t conform to the theory, then there must be something wrong with the facts.



Challenges to “settled science” has been occurring for centuries. The “settled science” was that the sun rotated around the earth. Galileo challenged that and was persecuted, if not prosecuted. If you do a little digging, you can find many instances of challenges to “settled science” that resulted in the persecution, if not the prosecution, of the challengers.



And now history has, again, come full circle.



A philosophy “professor” at the Rochester Institute of Technology has publicly stated that climate change deniers should be jailed. A ten year chemistry professor at the University of Oregon was fired for no apparent reason, other than he was a critic of the whole climate change argument. An Associate Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies (a “progressive” think tank) was fired because he openly disagreed with the institute’s position on climate change (the institute says that climate change is “settled science”). There are others, but, again, you get the point.



And it’s Obama that tacitly encourages persecution. After all, it’s just the “clingers” and “flat earthers” who dare disagree with “settled science.”



Welcome back to the dark ages. where disagreement with the academic and governmental “enlightened elite” warrants persecution and prosecution.

[MinutemanCO]

Clearly, it's not about climate change, but about control of the populace.

Although some of the scientific proponents, I'm sure, believe what they're selling, despite the evidence to the contrary. It doesn't make their ignorance and unfounded belief systems any more credible.

Enter the INSANITY that seems to accompany all who stand with liberal/progressive ideology.

[Ryan Ruck]

June Snow: Winter Storm in Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Flooding in Glacier National Park As Summer Approaches

June 19, 2014

Winter gave one last glancing blow to the U.S. in the days before summer.

Emergency responders in Glacier County are on the lookout as close to 4 inches of rain had fallen already Wednesday afternoon, and just a little bit more could cause extensive flooding.

Already Glacier County Disaster and Emergency Services Director Charles Farmer said one neighborhood in Browning, Montana was covered with three to four feet of water. Evacuations have not yet been ordered, though, by either him or Blackfeet Tribal Emergency Services Director Earl Black Weasel Jr.

"We are in a heightened state of awareness right now," Farmer said.

As the snow that hit Glacier National Park since Monday night starts to melt, there is worry about what impact it will have downstream.

"We're all watching," Farmer said.

A spring deluge that has dumped nearly 5 inches of rain and more than a foot of snow in parts of Glacier National Park has tourists seeking cover and rivers spilling over their banks from the mountain runoff.

The storm has pounded northern Montana over the past two days, and the National Weather Service issued a flood warning Wednesday for a broad swath of territory from the northern Rocky Mountain Front to east of Cut Bank.

A winter storm warning was issued earlier for higher elevations, and more than 14 inches of snow had already fallen at the Sperry Chalet in the park east of Lake McDonald, Glacier spokeswoman Denise Germann said.

Snow at Logan Pass (6/17/2014);Sperry Chalet in #GNP along the Continental Divide has received over 14" of snow #mtwx http://t.co/nTCcq5OHPr

— NWS Great Falls (@NWSGreatFalls) June 18, 2014

Tourists hunkered down in lodges, snow plowing crews stood down, workers laid out sandbags, and park officials prepared for possible evacuations from administrative and employee housing areas near St. Mary, Germann said.

Park officials closed St. Mary campground and a nearby trail on the eastern side of the park, along with the Kintla Lake area on the western side.

"We're definitely seeing lots of water in the park," she said. "It's moving fast, it's cold, it's challenging to cross hiking and driving."

Glacier is at its busiest in July and August, but the summer tourist season gets underway in June. More than 513,000 people visited the park in June 2013.

A clerk at the Many Glacier Hotel told the Daily Inter Lake the lodge was nearly full. Guests crowded around the fire in the lobby as snow fell outside Tuesday and the nearby Swiftcurrent Creek was rising after more than 4 inches of rain fell over two days.

Officials also are keeping an eye on the rising Divide Creek and the North Fork of the Flathead River on the park's western border, Germann said.

Heavy rain and mountain runoff to areas east of the park has caused some flooding in parts of Glacier and Pondera counties, weather service officials said. The St. Mary River was already above flood stage near Babb and was continuing to rise, while water was reported on the roadway where state Highway 89 crosses the Milk River.

Flood warnings also were in effect for small streams in western Glacier and Pondera counties.

The Blackfeet Tribal disaster and emergency services director said the tribe is in a "precautionary planning and evaluation state" should the need arise to evacuate homes, said Earl Black Weasel Jr. All disaster and emergency response personnel are on standby and are prepared to implement emergency evacuation and shelters if needed. Sandbags are available for residents at the Blackfeet Hotshots headquarters.

Black Weasel said the rivers, streams and lakes on the reservation are still not above normal for this time of year. However, with rainfall expected to continue throughout Wednesday into today and then temperatures quickly warming up, there's a chance for melting snow to create more flooding. So far Black Weasel reported standing water on some of the roadways, but no other flooding reports have been noted.

"We're prepared and ready to take action," he said.

Debris temporarily closed state Highway 49 north of East Glacier, and the weather service warned "numerous mudslides or debris flows should be expected."

Babb recorded 4.25 inches of rain over 24 hours, while Goat Haunt inside the park received 4.94 inches.

Though attention has recently been paid to the destructive and deadly floods of 1964, Farmer said he believes emergency crews are much more prepared these days and are ready to respond.

"In 1964, we didn't have enough warning," he said.

Snow also fell in the Tetons and Wind River Mountains of western Wyoming, the mountains of Idaho, and Wasatch of Utah.

Up to nine inches of snow was estimated at Gunsite Pass in Sublette County, Wyoming. Snow was observed as low as 6,100 feet in Wyoming, with 3.5 inches of snow recorded in Evanston, Wyoming, according to the National Weather Service.

Nine inches of snow was recorded in Alta, Utah on June 17, their third highest one-day June snow total on record dating to 1905, according to the National Weather Service. A band of lake-effect precipitation formed off the Great Salt Lake early Wednesday, an oddity for June.

Lake effect off the Great Salt Lake in mid-June! #utwx #utsnow pic.twitter.com/oA4PiekLzx

— NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) June 18, 2014

[Ryan Ruck]

The Scandal Of Fiddled Global Warming Data

The US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record

June 21, 2014

When future generations try to understand how the world got carried away around the end of the 20th century by the panic over global warming, few things will amaze them more than the part played in stoking up the scare by the fiddling of official temperature data. There was already much evidence of this seven years ago, when I was writing my history of the scare, The Real Global Warming Disaster. But now another damning example has been uncovered by Steven Goddard’s US blog Real Science, showing how shamelessly manipulated has been one of the world’s most influential climate records, the graph of US surface temperature records published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Goddard shows how, in recent years, NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data. In several posts headed “Data tampering at USHCN/GISS”, Goddard compares the currently published temperature graphs with those based only on temperatures measured at the time. These show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on “fabricated” data, shows it to have been warming at a rate equivalent to more than 3 degrees centigrade per century.

When I first began examining the global-warming scare, I found nothing more puzzling than the way officially approved scientists kept on being shown to have finagled their data, as in that ludicrous “hockey stick” graph, pretending to prove that the world had suddenly become much hotter than at any time in 1,000 years. Any theory needing to rely so consistently on fudging the evidence, I concluded, must be looked on not as science at all, but as simply a rather alarming case study in the aberrations of group psychology.

[American Patriot]

I heard about the blizzard up north last week. My son took a trip up to Cheyenne Wy and I warned him to watch out for the weather. lol I think it was further north, in Montana though.

[Ryan Ruck]

The Sun Has Gone Quiet…Solar Cycle 24 Continues To Rank As One Of The Weakest Cycles In More Than A Century

July 17, 2014

Via: http://thesiweather.com/2014/07/16/1...n-a-century/ED

The sun has gone quiet…solar cycle 24 continues to rank as one of the weakest cycles more than a century



Discussion

Overview
Ten days ago, the sun was quite active and peppered with several large spots. Now the sun has gone quiet and it is nearly completely blank. It appears that the solar maximum phase for solar cycle 24 may have been reached and it is not very impressive. It looks as if this solar cycle is “double-peaked” (see below) which is not all that uncommon; however, it is somewhat rare that the second peak in sunspot number during the solar max phase is larger than the first. In fact, this solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record which continues the recent trend for increasingly weaker cycles. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009. In fact, in 2008 and 2009, there were almost no sunspots, a very unusual situation during a solar minimum phase that had not happened for almost a century.



Consequences of a weak solar cycle
First, the weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.

Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.

Outlook
The increasingly likely outcome for an historically weak solar cycle continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began over twenty years ago during solar cycle 22. If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles, then there would likely be more talk of another “grand minimum” for the sun. Some solar scientists are already predicting that the next solar cycle, #25, will be even weaker than this current one. However, it is just too early for high confidence in these predictions since some solar scientists believe that the best predictor of future solar cycle strength involves activity at the sun’s poles during a solar minimum and the next solar minimum is still likely several years away.

[Ryan Ruck]

Cold Temps Break 128-Year Record in Mobile

July 17, 2014

Forecasters say Mobile has broken a 128-year-old record with a low temperature of 64 degrees.

The National Weather Service says the low Thursday morning was 1 degree cooler than the low of 65 degrees set in 1886.

The weather service says Huntsville tied a record low for the date of 59 degrees set in 1945, and temperatures were in the mid- to upper 50s across north Alabama.

The unseasonably cool temperatures are supposed to continue during the day with highs expected below 90 degrees across the state.

[Ryan Ruck]

Brisbane, Australia Hits Coldest Temperature In 103 Years

July 12, 2014

If you are lucky enough to be reading this from the comfort of your blankets, it might be best to stay there, as Brisbane has hit its coldest temperatures in 103 years.

Not since July 28 1911 has Brisbane felt this cold, getting down to a brisk 2.6C at 6.41am.

At 7am, it inched up to 3.3C.

Matt Bass, meteorologist from BOM, said the region was well below our average temperatures.

“If it felt cold, that’s because it was, breaking that record is pretty phenomenal for Brisbane,” Bass said.

“The average for this time of year is 12C, so Brisbane was about 9C below average, it is pretty impressive really, to have the coldest morning in 103 years is a big record.”

The coldest place across the state was Oakey which got down to -6.1C, which was the coldest temperature for the town since 2011.

Brisbane wasn’t the only town hitting landmark temperatures with Clermont breaking its coldest record two days in a row.

“Clermont in the coal fields got down to -4.5 which is a new record for them, their previous record was -3.7, which was set yesterday, so they’ve re-broken their record two days in a row.”

All these cold temperatures are being brought on as cold air moves up from the south, combined with clear nights.

“We are seeing a series of cold fronts push really cold air across South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, which has brought low level snow.

“Which is good for the ski fields down there, but once all that air moves up towards Queensland it is still very cold and it loses all that moisture that drops all over Victoria and those other areas.

“By the time it comes up here it is cold and dry and on clear nights like last night that cold dry air chills off really easily.”

The temperature gauge is starting to slowly rise in Brisbane sitting at a cool 3.6c shortly before 8am, with a top of 22c expected for today, although don’t get too excited as the cold temperatures are expected again tomorrow.

“There will be another cold morning tomorrow, probably not as cold as this morning but it will still be very frosty across the Darling Downs and the interior and very cold along much of the coastal strip as well.

“It will be maybe a degree or two warmer than this morning and then Monday will be slightly warmer.

“By Tuesday and Wednesday we will have a bit of cloud around, we are looking at temperatures back towards the average of around 11C.”

Other chilly areas were;

Warwick -5.9

Kingaroy -5.7

Applethorpe -5.4

Dalby -5.0

Clermont -4.5

Miles -4.3

Roma -4.3

Beaudesert -3.8

Ipswich/Amberley -2.5

Gympie -1.5

Charleville -1.5

Coolangatta 1.0 – coldest morning since July 2011

Sunshine Coast 2.0

Meanwhile, the cold snap is predicted to send vegetable prices soaring up to three times normal prices.

The combination of an unusually late start to winter plus a sudden plummet to near-record lows has confused the growing cycles of just about every plant.