INCOMING SOLAR STORM: A strong M6-class solar flare on April 11th has hurled a CME toward Earth. Geomagnetic storms and high-latitude auroras are possible when the fast-moving cloud reaches our planet on April 13th. Visit http://spaceweather.com for updates.
Updated 05/13/2013 @ 02:10 UTC X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC [VIDEO]. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and will begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
CME Update: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but as expected it was directed away from Earth. [VIDEO] ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.http://www.solarham.net/also posted in the lab
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The Sun unleashed its third major solar flare in 24 hours Monday night. The X-class flare was the strongest flare of the year, surpassing two other X-class flares that occurred earlier in the 24 hour period. (Photo : NASA/SDO)
The Sun unleashed its third major solar flare in 24 hours Monday night. The X-class flare was the strongest flare of the year, surpassing two other X-class flares that occurred earlier in the 24 hour period.
Increased numbers of solar flares are expected as the Sun enters the peak of high activity in its 11-year cycle, known as the solar maximum. The Space Weather Prediction Center reported upcoming solar activity to be moderate with a 40 percent probability of more X-class flares erupting between now and May 16.
The latest X-class flare was also associated with a coronal mass ejection, or CME, which was not Earth-directed, according to a NASA statement.
The CME's speed of 1,400 miles per second is considered particularly fast for a CME and models suggest that it will catch up with the CMEs connected to the earlier X-class eruptions, merging into a giant mass of speeding solar material. The merged cloud of solar matter will pass by the Spitzer spacecraft and may possibly intercept the STEREO-B and Epoxi spacecraft. Spacecraft mission operators were given enough weaning to put the craft into "safe mode" to prevent any damage from the CME.
When strong CMEs reach Earth they have the power to blowout transformers in power grids and disrupt radio communications as well as enhance northern lights displays.
Monday night's solar flare was classified as a X3.2 flare. X-class events are the strongest types of solar flare; the three X-class flares since Sunday were the first of the year.
The strongest flare recorded during this Sun cycle was an X6.9 on Aug. 9, 2011. So far, there have been 18 X-class solar flares in Solar Cycle 24, according to Space.com.
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Region AR1748 is letting lose X-class flares and CMEs.
Astronomers monitoring the sun are reporting an astonishing flurry of activity. According to observations, the sun has let loose three major eruptions, known as solar flares, within a 24 hour period. The region of the sun responsible for the activity is moving and will point at Earth later this week.
Solar fury! The sun's X3.2 class flare captured on film.
LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Between Sunday and Monday, and within a 24 hour period, the sun has let lose three major flares, all in the X range. Solar flares are rated on a scale with X flares being among the largest possible. The latest flare erupted Monday night and registered as an X3.2, which is so far the most powerful solar flare of the year.
The flares are emanating from a dark region on the sun known popularly as a "sunspot." This sunspot region has been dubbed AR1748. Sunspots are dark because they are cooler than the surrounding region, however they remain amazingly hot. They are formed when magnetic field lines get twisted together. When those magnetic lines twist too much, they break, and often result in a solar flare.
Of the past three major flares, two have produced coronal mass ejections, which means some of the sun's material was flung far out into space, away from the sun at millions of miles per hour.
So far, these supercharged streams of solar material have missed the Earth because the active region on the sun (AR1748) isn't pointing in our direction. This will change within the next few days as the sun rotates.
By the end of this week, AR1748 will face Earth and any coronal mass ejections will probably impact the planet. Such impacts cause geomagnetic storms, which are responsible for displays of the northern and southern lights, also known as auroras.
While auroras are beautiful to watch, the solar events that cause them can be dangerous both in space and on Earth. Spacecraft and high-flying airliners can be exposed to increased radiation. Satellites and power grids on Earth are also susceptible to damage as electrical charges build up upon them. Satellites can be lost and power can be knocked out on Earth.
All this can be fixed however, and the only humans that are in real danger are those in orbit. Those flying are exposed to little more radiation than they receive during x-ray exams. Fortunately, the impact of a coronal mass ejection can be predicted and astronauts can take precautions while the rest of us on Earth are protected by the planet's magnetic field.
For most people, a geomagnetic storm simply means the rare treat of the northern or southern lights at middle latitudes.
The current spate of activity is normal for the sun as it reaches the climax of its 11-year cycle of activity. Every 11 years, the sun experiences increased activity as its magnetic field reverses. Then, the activity subsides and the sun remains quiet for the better part of the next decade.
What is most unusual about the current uptick in activity is that the sun has been abnormally quiet for the past two years, well at the lower range of average activity.
Scientists cannot predict if the sun will send a coronal mass ejection towards Earth within the next several days, but they do believe there will be more activity from the AR1748. If a major geomagnetic storm appears likely, we will provide additional coverage.
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There have been four. Today's was huge. Bigger than the other three.
Huge Solar Flares Keep Erupting from Busy Sunspot
by Tariq Malik, SPACE.com Managing Editor
Date: 15 May 2013 Time: 09:09 AM ET
A huge X1.2-class solar flare erupted from the sun late Tuesday (May 14, 2013), the fourth major flare in two days from a busy sunspot on the surface of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory captured this view of the event.
CREDIT: NASA/SDO
View full size image
An overachieving sunspot on the surface of the sun unleashed its fourth major solar flare in two days late Tuesday (May 14), a solar storm that may deal Earth a glancing blow, space weather experts say.
The active sunspot AR1748 roared to life Tuesday night releasing an X-class solar flare — the strongest type the sun can experience — that peaked at 9:48 p.m. EDT (0148 May 15 GMT), according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. The flare came after a relative lull in activity from sunspot AR1748, which fired off three monster X-class solar flares within a 24-hour period between Sunday and Monday.
In a morning update, NOAA space weather officials said they are studying this latest solar flare from AR1748 to see if it coincided with an eruption of super-hot solar plasma known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME. Such explosions can unleash huge waves of charged solar material streaking out into space at millions of miles per hour. [Sun Unleashes Biggest Flares of 2013 (Photos)]
"Too early to know if a CME occurred. If one did, it may just glance the Earth's magnetic field, given its off-center location still," SWPC officials said. "Forecasters are pondering that one."
Sunspot AR1748 (far left) fired off the three biggest flares of 2013 over a 24-hour stretch on May 12-13.
CREDIT: NASA/SDOView full size image
Public outreach officials with NASA's sun-watching Solar Dynamics Observatory released a photo of Tuesday night's X-class flare via the mission's Camilla mascot Twitter page, and suggested a CME event did occur.
Sunspot AR1748 is about twice the size of Earth and is currently located on the sun's extreme left side, so it is not directly facing our planet.
The solar storm Tuesday night registered as an X1.2 solar flare, making it the weakest in the four-flare series from sunspot AR1748. The stormy activity began late Sunday (May 12) when the sun fired off an X1.7 flare. Two more flares followed on Monday, an X2.8 flare at midday and an even stronger X3.2 that night.
According to solar astrophysicist C. Alex Young at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the sunspot will likely be facing Earth by this weekend.
"In a couple of days, it will be far enough onto the disk that any CMEs that we got would probably have some impact on Earth," Young told SPACE.com Tuesday.
Solar Quiz: How Well Do You Know Our Sun?
Many of us take the sun for granted, giving it little thought until it scorches our skin or gets in our eyes. But our star is a fascinating and complex object, a gigantic fusion reactor that gives us life. How much do you know about the sun?
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When aimed directly at Earth, X-class solar flares can pose a risk to astronauts and satellites in orbit, as well as interfere with radio, GPS and other communications signals. X-class flares and more moderate, but still intense, M-class sun storms can also supercharge Earth's auroras to create spectacular northern lights displays.
The sun is currently in an active period of its 11-year solar weather cycle and is expected to reach its peak activity later this year. The current sun weather cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, began in 2008.
Scientists have been tracking the sun's solar flares and other space weather events since they were first discovered in 1843. Today, a fleet of international spacecraft keep constant watch on the sun's activity. Email Tariq Malik at tmalik@space.com or follow him @tariqjmalikand Google+.Follow us @Spacedotcom, Facebookand Google+. Original article on SPACE.com.
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The super-active sunspot responsible for unleashing the three most powerful solar flares of 2013 within a 24-hour stretch this week is slowly rotating toward Earth and will likely be facing our planet by the weekend, experts say.
Active Region 1748, as the sunspot is known, unleashed three monster solar flares between Sunday and Monday (May 12 to 13). Every one of the solar storms registered as an X-class flare — the most powerful type — with each successive event stronger than the last, culminating in an X3.2 megablast Monday night.
These solar explosions did not affect Earth, since AR1748 was not facing our planet at the time. But the sunspot is now circling into view, so future flares and any associated eruptions of super-hot solar plasma — called coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — could potentially target our planet, scientists say. [Sun Unleashes Biggest Flares of 2013 (Photos)]
"In a couple of days, it will be far enough onto the disk that any CMEs that we got would probably have some impact on Earth," solar astrophysicist C. Alex Young, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., told SPACE.com.
AR1748 should be near the center of the solar disk by around Saturday, Young added.
"If it sends something off, then we can expect to get some CMEs sort of head-on" at that point, he said.
Sunspots are temporary dark and relatively cool patches on our star's surface where the local magnetic field is very strong. They frequently, but not always, serve as staging grounds for powerful solar flares and CMEs.
At about the size of two Earths, AR1748 is not a particularly large sunspot. (Sunspots can stretch for tens of thousands of miles across the solar surface.) But the active region does appear to have an unusually complex structure, Young said.
Because AR1748 is near the sun's limb at the moment, it's tough to say if its complexity is increasing, which could be an indicator of future activity. But things should become clearer in the next day or so, as scientists get a better look at the sunspot, he added.
While researchers will take AR1748's complexity and evolution into account when gauging its future eruption potential, they'll also look closely at its past behavior.
"One of the biggest indicators of an active region flaring is that it already flared," Young said. "In this case, the fact that it's already put out a really large flare gives it a strong possibility that it'll do it again."
Scientists give AR1748 a 40 to 50 percent chance of firing off another X-class flare, he added, though this probability is a rough estimate that could change as further information becomes available.
X-class flares aimed at Earth can have consequences on a planet-wide scale, triggering widespread radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.
Earth-directed CMEs have even more destructive potential. When a CME's charged particles interact with Earth's magnetic field, they can spawn geomagnetic storms powerful enough to disrupt GPS signals, radio communications and power grids.
Solar activity waxes and wanes over an 11-year cycle. The current cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is ramping up toward an expected peak later this year.
Scientists have been tracking the sun's weather cycle since 1843, when it was first discovered. Today, NASA and other space agencies use sophisticated satellites and spacecraft to monitor the sun's activity with high-definition instruments to keep tabs on space weather events.
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Sun fires off fourth major solar flare of the week--more expected
NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory captured this image of the X1.2 solar flare that peaked at 6:48 p.m. EDT on May 15. It was the fourth major flare in the span of 72 hours. ( NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory)
The same region of the sun that brought you three powerful solar flares in a 24-hour span from Sunday night to Monday evening let loose Tuesday night with another explosive flash of ultraviolet radiation and sent tons of its own solar material flying through space.
The flare, which peaked at 6:48 p.m. EDT, was the fourth this week to be categorized as X-class, the most powerful type of solar flare.
As usual, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught beautiful images of the sun's fireworks, which you can see above. (The flare is the area of bright white at the far left of the image).
Like its three predecessors, this solar flare was associated with a coronal mass ejection -- a mixture of plasma and other solar material released by the sun at the time of a solar flare. A report on SpaceWeather.com noted that although the sunspot from which the coronal mass ejection originated is not facing Earth directly, it is possible that part of it may be headed toward our planet.
When a coronal mass ejection hits Earth, it interacts with the planet's magnetic field, occasionally causing radio blackouts and, in extreme cases, disrupting power. It can also interfere with satellites and create beautiful, dynamic auroras.
Scientists have dubbed the active region of the sun that is creating these solar flares AR 11748. They still don't know much about this region or exactly why it is so active because it has just started to rotate into view from Earth.
"It's been hard to see completely because it was around the corner," Alex Young, a heliophysicist at Goddard Space Flight Center, told The Times on Tuesday afternoon. "We can see it is complicated, but it is hard to get a good picture -- we will have to wait till it rotates around."
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters say there's a good chance that more solar flares are on their way. The agency says there is a 50% chance of X-class solar flares and an 80% chance of less powerful M-class solar flares, in the next 24 hours.
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Nasa: Third X-Class Solar Flare In 24 Hours 'Not Capable Of Physically Destroying The Earth' (VIDEO)
Huffington Post UK | By Michael Rundle Posted: 15/05/2013 09:04 BST | Updated: 15/05/2013 10:08 BST
The Sun has expelled a third intense X-Class solar flare in 24 hours - but Nasa says not to worry.
It is "not physically capable of destroying Earth".
Our sun is currently nearing the period known as 'solar maximum', when activity on its surface rises to an 11 year peak. This solar cycle has been observed regularly since it was discovered in 1843, and indicates a regular fluctuation and not an anomaly.
Above: the third X-class flare in 24 hours
But the appearance of three powerful flares in less than 24 hours has still surprised many - and now the sun spot which produced them is turning towards the Earth.
The X3.2 flare which appeared on 13 May is the strongest of 2013 so far, and surpasses the two previous flares which had occurred earlier this week.
The flare was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the sun at 1,400 miles per second - so fast it will eventually catch up with the two other X-class flares.
Nasa said it was possible the flare would give a "glancing blow" to its Stereo-B spacecraft, which may be placed into 'safe mode' to withstand the force.
The sunspot which made it is currently facing away from Earth, but will be turning to meet us in the next few days.
But despite the intensity of the flares, Nasa said there was no chance that it would catastrophically harm Earth.
"Some people worry that a gigantic "killer solar flare" could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth," Nasa said on its website. "But this is not actually possible."
"Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm." Loading Slideshow
MYTH: Solar flares have no effect on Earth.
REALITY: Solar flares can release electromagnetic radiation that's strong enough to disrupt electric power grids, satellites, GPS, and radio communications. Pictured: Coronal mass ejection as viewed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on June 7, 2011.
MYTH: A solar flare could kill us all.
REALITY: Only a tiny fraction of the energy liberated by a solar flare reaches the Earth, because we're protected by our planet's atmosphere. "We have a very long record that shows that even the strongest flares can't blow out the atmosphere," Antti Pulkkinen, a research scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told CNN. Pictured: A solar eruptive prominence as seen in extreme UV light on March 30, 2010 with Earth superimposed for a sense of scale.
MYTH: Solar flares occur at random.
REALITY: Solar flares follow an 11-year cycle. Pictured: Full-disk images of the sun's lower corona during solar cycle 23, as it progressed from solar minimum to maximum conditions and back to minimum (upper right).
MYTH: 'Aftershocks' are rare.
REALITY: About one in seven flares is followed by an aftershock -- the flare springs back to life, producing an extra surge of ultraviolet radiation. Pictured: Sunspot 1112, crackling with solar flares, spotted by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on October 16, 2010.
MYTH: Solar flares can be seen with the naked eye.
REALITY: To see a solar flare from Earth, you must use a solar telescope. Never stare directly at the sun. What you can see with a naked eye are northern lights, which can be triggered by solar eruptions. Pictured: Northern lights (aurora borealis) over Lake Elora in Minnesota on July 15, 2012.
MYTH: Solar flares were discovered only recently.
REALITY: Solar flares were first observed in 1859 by English astronomer Richard Carrington. Pictured: Sunspots of September 1, 1859 as sketched by Richard Carrington.
MYTH: Solar flares are small compared to other explosions in our solar system.
REALITY: Solar flares are among the biggest explosions in our solar system. "They erupt near sunspots with the force of a hundred million hydrogen bombs," Robert Lin of UC Berkeley's Space Science Lab said in a written statement. Pictured: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft image of a solar flare on October 28, 2003.
MYTH: Solar flares can knock satellites from orbit.
REALITY: When satellites do fall out of orbit, it's because Earth's gravity is pulling them down. Pictured: Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) image of an M7.9 class solar flare on March 13, 2012.
MYTH: Solar flares produce sunspots.
REALITY: It's actually the other way around. Magnetic fields associated with sunspots -- cool, dark regions of the sun's surface -- can sometimes give rise to solar flares. Pictured: NASA's sun-observing TRACE spacecraft image shows a large sunspot group from September 2000.
MYTH: Solar flares and solar prominences are different names for the same phenomenon.
REALITY: Solar flares and prominences are different. A prominence is a loop of plasma traveling along magnetic field lines. Sometimes this loop collapses back into the sun -- or, if the prominence erupts, a solar flare can result. Pictured: A solar prominence on October 19, 2012, captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).
MYTH: Solar flares and coronal mass ejections are the same thing.
REALITY: Coronal mass ejections are also explosions on the sun--but a different type of explosion. "If a solar flare is a tornado, very intense, very focused, very local, a coronal mass ejection is a hurricane," astronomer Phil Plait told The Huffington Post. Pictured: An X1.4 solar flare associated with a coronal mass ejection on July 12, 2012.
"In an increasingly technological world, where almost everyone relies on cellphones, and GPS controls not just your in-car map system, but also airplane navigation and the extremely accurate clocks that govern financial transactions, space weather is a serious matter."
But the space agency added that while space weather is a problem, it is only in "the same way hurricanes are a problem". Nasa gives warnings to companies that might be affected by serious space weather so they can prepare ahead of time.
Meanwhile the UK government is examining the threat - though concern remains that current plans to proactively prevent damage to vital infrastructure such as the National Grid are not extensive enough to reduce the risk.
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"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
-- Theodore Roosevelt
This thing has been kicking out larger and larger flares.
The one a few hours ago was apparently pretty massive, but fortunately none of them are aimed at us. Yet.
That sun spot is coming around to face the Earth in a day or so it appears (I've not done the calculation, but it looks like it should be about three days just from judging the angle it's at on the sun - it takes about 13 days from when it first appears to rotate around to the other horizon and vanish).
But if these things keep getting bigger and bigger, we might get some satellites blasted! The astronauts that just went up might have to come back down, or take cover.
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Solar activity continued on May 14, 2013, as the sun emitted a fourth X-class flare from its upper left limb, peaking at 9:48 p.m. EDT. This flare is classified as an X1.2 flare and it is the 18th X-class flare of the current solar cycle. The flare caused a radio blackout – categorized as an R3, or strong, on NOAA’s space weather scales from R1 to R5 — which has since subsided.
The flare was also associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. CMEs and flares are separate but related solar phenomena: solar flares are powerful bursts that send light and radiation into space; CMEs erupt with billions of tons of solar material. They often, but do not always, occur together. Any time we can see a solar flare from Earth’s view, than at least some of its light and radiation must be directed at Earth. CMEs on the other hand may or may not be Earth directed. NASA observes CMEs, however, even when they are not traveling toward Earth, because they may impact spacecraft.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of the X1.2 class solar flare on May 14, 2013. The image show light with a wavelength of 304 angstroms. Credit: NASA/SDO
Experimental NASA research models show that this CME left the sun at around 745 miles per second, beginning at 10:18 p.m. EDT. It is not Earth-directed, however it may pass the Spitzer and Epoxi orbits, and their mission operators have been notified. If warranted, operators can put spacecraft into safe mode to protect the instruments from solar material.
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Nikita Khrushchev:"We will bury you"
"Your grandchildren will live under communism."
“You Americans are so gullible.
No, you won’t accept To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. outright, but we’ll keep feeding you small doses of To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. until you’ll finally wake up and find you already have communism.
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We’ll so weaken your To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. until you’ll To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. like overripe fruit into our hands."
If you weren’t already aware, the Sun’s been seeing a whole lot of action of late. Like, it’s still being the Sun, but it’s also putting out incredible X-class solar flares, complete with coronal mass ejections. The latter doesn’t necessarily require the former, though, and that’s where we find ourselves at currently. Thanks to a couple of coronal mass ejections yesterday, there’s a good chance we’re going to get some geomagnetic storm activity over the next few days.
Coronal mass ejections can send “billions of tons of solar particles” out from the Sun into space, and sometimes these are directed at Earth. This doesn’t affect humans, thanks to our atmosphere, but it can cause issues with technical equipment. This is especially true for anything in the path of the CME out in space, like satellites.
The first CME, which erupted from the Sun at 5:24 AM EDT on May 17th, has already come and gone without much fanfare. A second CME that erupted around 10 AM EDT yesterday, however, is expected to hit the Earth tomorrow, May 19th, and bump us up into what the Space Weather Prediction Center calls a “Geomagnetic Storm category G2 (Moderate)” level of activity.
Sun Activity Increases, Coronal Mass Ejection Heads For Earth
May 19, 2013
Image Caption: A combined view of the coronal mass ejection, or CME, that occurred on May 17, 2013, at 5:36 EDT. The center yellow image was captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory and shows the sun as seen in UV light, in the 171 Angstrom wavelength. The SDO image is superimposed on top of an image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory showing the CME propagating into space. Credit: NASA/SDO/Goddard, ESA&NASA SOHO
Lawrence LeBlond for redOrbit.com – Your Universe Online
On May 17, the sun unleashed an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) at 5:24 a.m. EDT sending billions of tons of solar particles into space. The matter from this CME will likely reach Earth in one to three days and potentially affect electronic systems in satellites and possibly the International Space Station (ISS).
NASA research models based on observations from NASA’s Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory show that the CME left the sun and was traveling at about 745 miles per second. While it is unlikely that this CME will produce a sizeable geomagnetic storm, one that can wreak havoc on satellites, electrical systems aboard the ISS and even systems here on Earth, it could still cause some disruptions.
NASA said it will continue to monitor the situation and provide further updates if needed.
This is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg in a huge sea of CMEs and solar flares that have been picking up on the surface of the sun this year.
In December, redOrbit’s Lee Rannals reported that the Sun was gearing up for a solar maximum in 2013, reaching its peak activity in the summer and fall months. So far, the sun has not let anyone down, as it has been pumping out solar flares and CMEs left and right for the past few months.
The solar maximum is the peak in the sun’s 11-year cycle of increased activity. This cycle, which can last anywhere from 9 to 14 years is followed by what is called a solar minimum, where the sun’s activity wanes. However, activity can be minimal during maximums and maximal during minimums and it’s really anybody’s guess when the sun is going to unleash all its fury or purr like a kitten.
While the solar maximum was upon us, the first few months of 2013 had been rather quiet for the sun with little to no activity to speak of. In March, researchers from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center said there was an explanation for this and was eager to share.
Dean Pesnell, a solar physicist at Goddard, explained that the sun was actually double peaking, meaning it was going through two solar maximums. Apparently there was a mini-max in 2011 with more solar spot and solar storm activity, leading some to believe that 2011 was the true year for the maximum.
However, this is not the first time astronomers have observed such a fluctuation in the cycles. There were in fact double peaks in the 1989 and 2001 solar maximum years as well, where activity peaked, waned and then peaked again.
Perhaps showing the ability of experts to forecast space weather and solar activity with reasonable exactness, the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction panel forecast the solar activity to pick up in May of 2013. And while the sun did have an increased level of activity in April, when the sun produced three coronal mass ejections in the course of two days, the best show so far occurred in May.
Less than a week ago the sun produced its first X-class solar flare of 2013, followed not by one, but three more X-class flares within 24 hours. The first, an X1.7 flare, occurred on May 13 at 2:31 UT. That flare, as impressive as it was, was succeeded by an X2.8 flare less than 15 hours later and then an even larger X3.2 flare at 1:46 UT on May 14. The final X-class flare, a smallish X1.2 flare, occurred 15 minutes later at 2:01 UT, marking four X-class flares in less than 24 hours.
While these flares were very impressive, it is important to note that all four occurred on the side of the sun not facing Earth. While radiation from such flares does not pose a risk to humans on Earth when they are directed at us, they can cause some minor disruptions to manmade satellites, GPS signals, telecommunications and even the ISS, including humans working aboard the station.
While solar flares do not pose as much of a risk to Earth, the coronal mass ejections that usually follow solar flares can be another story altogether. Massive CMEs have the potential to cause powerful geomagnetic storms and in the past have been known to cause significant damage to electrical systems on Earth.
As reported in Rannals’ December article, the largest known CME ever to hit earth occurred in 1859 and disrupted the telegraph system at the time. If we factor in today’s technology, a CME of that size could have the potential to cause 10, or even 100, times the amount of damage that was caused 150 years ago.
A CME that occurred in 1972 was powerful enough to cause a geomagnetic storm that damaged phone lines in Illinois. And a 1989 event melted transformers in New Jersey and knocked out power for most of Quebec.
While this past week’s CME has the potential to cause some disruptions, it is unlikely that it will rival that of the 1859, 1972 or 1989 events.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is the main sun monitoring system for detecting solar flares and coronal mass ejections. It has been monitoring the sun since its launch date on February 11, 2010.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the US government’s official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.
Libertatem Prius!
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A long presentation but well worth it, but what does that have to do with preps and yours truly, the author of this website almost committing a fatal sin and destroying a key portion of my survival plans?
I ignored my own website and it almost cost myself and more importantly, my family. What did I ignore one might ask; well this:
For all of my preparing, for the potential for an economic disaster, surviving in a situation similar to East Germany or the Soviet Union (as it is now almost), to prepare for hurricanes, food shortages, or even Mad Max, I took a sheeple break while traveling for business and missed paying attention to the propagation link on my own website for a few days. What harm could this have caused? This story by Paul Bedard at the Washington Examiner should provide a clue:
“The world escaped an EMP catastrophe,” said Henry Cooper, who led strategic arms negotiations with the Soviet Union under President Reagan, and who now heads High Frontier, a group pushing for missile defense.
“There had been a near miss about two weeks ago, a Carrington-class coronal mass ejection crossed the orbit of the Earth and basically just missed us,” said Peter Vincent Pry, who served on the Congressional EMP Threat Commission from 2001-2008. He was referring to the 1859 EMP named after astronomer Richard Carrington that melted telegraph lines in Europe and North America.
“Basically this is a Russian roulette thing,” added Pry. “We narrowly escape from a Carrington-class disaster.”
Pry, Cooper, and former CIA Director James Woolsey have been recently demanding that Washington prepare the nation’s electric grid for an EMP, either from the sun or an enemy’s nuclear bomb. They want the 2,000-3,000 transformers in the grid protected with a high-tech metal box and spares ready to rebuild the system. Woolsey said knocking out just 20 would shut down electricity to parts of the nation “for a long time.”
Oops. My bad. My real bad. A few days of mental vacation and relaxation from reality almost cost me the key aspect of my survival plans:
Radio communications via the ability to receive and/or transmit data as needed.
How did I miss my prepper moment?
I left town thinking the stupid idea of something like, “Duh, what could happen, the war isn’t really going to start yet and all is well with the world at this moment unless one lives in Syria or the Middle East.”
And I forgot to put the most critical gear back into my protective Faraday cage locations. At this point in time, dedicated preppers and survivalists may groan loudly, but how many of you were out and about working or playing while forgetting to set alarms to check or paying attention to the solar flare situation? If you failed to catch this event as I did, please understand that the 1850′s were not all that bad; except for the disease, roving bands of individuals who attacked one’s homes, and the lack of air conditioning in Florida during the summer.
Oh, and the substantially shortened life span which would be even shorter thanks to automatic weapons, a lack of morality, and a society so stupid as the majority thinks ground beef comes pre-wrapped from the Styrofoam bone on the ass of a cow.
However, there are other threats lurking, unseen, undetected like the solar flare which almost took the entire world back to the 1800′s, and that is why I decided to pen this piece about staying awake and prepared no matter how much longer or sooner the “big one” which will change our lives might occur. Think about this story which was on the front page of the Drudge Report and the implications for the Northern Hemisphere this winter:
The chart in the article above tells the tale but the comments detailed below should terrify anyone north of the Florida state line:
For those who are wondering about this chart from the source article above at iceagenow.info, the X-axis represents number of days this year and the Y-axis the temperature in Kelvin (K) where 274.15K = 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The quote from the same article is equally as disconcerting:
“Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that,” says Steven Goddard website.
“The Arctic ice extent is showing a remarkable recovery from the great oscillations of 2012,” says Guimaraes. “Compare with the previous years listed there, you’ll see that 2004 is the year that is closest to 2013 in terms of average temps during the summer.”
Thus while our farms are expected to produce a record output this season, the coming cold spell about to befall North America and Europe could cause a massive shock to the system for the unprepared. Everyone must remember that our electricity production will be lower thanks to two solid years of government hounding by the Obama regime shutting down coal producing capacity and by extension those power plants which used coal for generation.
Thankfully I might just have to wear a windbreaker or on the worst of days this upcoming winter a lightweight parka. But like the solar storm I missed a few weeks ago, I wonder to myself just how many people are enjoying the summer and not preparing for a hard winter.
A hard winter of cold weather, possibly the coldest in modern history.
A hard winter of want, as shortages will be abundant.
A hard winter like those of Soviet Russia, where freedom was rare.
A hard winter of starvation, for food, for a message, for independence.
No matter what my readers are told, no matter the edicts from the government which one day will indeed silence my voice among many others, please take a moment and ask yourself if you are prepared.
Oops is not the answer one needs to utter as the “big one” could show up in the ionosphere, in the form of a blizzard, or kicking in the front door without warning.
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Nikita Khrushchev:"We will bury you"
"Your grandchildren will live under communism."
“You Americans are so gullible.
No, you won’t accept To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. outright, but we’ll keep feeding you small doses of To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. until you’ll finally wake up and find you already have communism.
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We’ll so weaken your To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. until you’ll To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 15 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. like overripe fruit into our hands."
I've stopped preaching and am headed for warmer climes soon. I guess there's multiple reasons for doing so, but if you're gonna crash and burn into a third world country, might as well go LIVE in one and get a leg up on the modern folks.
Well, looks like the sun is flipping it's lid soon.
Actually, it does this every 11 years, switching magnetic fields. The solar magnetic field will completely "flip" within the next three or four months, according to NASA.
The dramatic-sounding event happens every 11 years. The Sun's magnetic activity follows a cycle, and as it reaches a maximum the poles weaken, reversing polarity.
In June last year, the Sun's northern polar field became more positively charged than the southern polar field - what's called a "reversal" of polarity. What's called a "flip" is considered to have taken place when the both fields change polarity. The Sun's magnetic field is weak but extends far beyond Pluto, NASA explains.
The current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, is the weakest of modern times, with fewer sunspots than scientists predicted and a decline in the number of sunspots per group.
As is its wont, NASA includes a pretty but useless "artist's concept" with its press release - this time it's of the heliospheric current sheet, and the artist has decided to colour it purple. Instead, here's a rather more useful chart of what the Sun is doing, via Stanford's Leif Svalgaard, who suggests "the Sun may be entering a new regime of very low activity".
Astronauts and spaceships ought to watch out too. According to NASA, during field reversals, the current sheet* becomes very wavy. A wavy current sheet, in turn, affects cosmic rays, "high-energy particles accelerated to nearly light speed by supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy", which are a danger to people and vehicles in space. ®
* "a sprawling surface jutting outward from the Sun's equator where the sun's slowly-rotating magnetic field induces an electrical current... [of] only one ten-billionth of an amp per square meter (0.0000000001 amps/m2)... 10,000 km thick and billions of kilometers wide."
Just for clarification this isn't a solar storm, I put it here because we're reaching solar maximum, max radiation, max sun spots, max solar energy - and with that comes solar storms which can in turn lob out CMEs which can act like giant EMPs on the Earth's magnetic field, which is turn could hose up the Earth's complex computer systems, internet etc.
I guess bad things could happen, don't expect them too.
But, the Earth itself has flipped its own magnetic field a number of times since the beginning of Earth time.
And no one really knows WHY, but I believe (suspect with my own knowledge of astrophysics) that it DOES have to do with this change and the exact conditions being correct for such changes.
That is the sun flips, throws out a CME, which in turn slams into the Earth, re-magnetizes the huge mass of iron in the planet that makes up our field and then flips the fields around.
It could happen. I don't think it would destroy the Earth or people, animals or plants, but it could be hairy for a few days.
Incoming solar storm
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The Sun unleashed its third major solar flare in 24 hours Monday night. The X-class flare was the strongest flare of the year, surpassing two other X-class flares that occurred earlier in the 24 hour period. (Photo : NASA/SDO) 
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