Weather Thread

[American Patriot]

As Scarlett O'Hara says, "There's always next year".

Or something.

LOL

[Malsua]

LMFAO! I know but this is probably my last thread of hope and I'm going to hold on to it with a death grip.

My saving grace is that model runs have been pretty consistent in matching up with the general theme of that first picture.

The last 4 major storms showed that we were getting snow...right up until the storm arrived, 300 miles north of where it was "modeled" to be.

The comical part of this, I read a message by a guy in upstate NY complaining about not getting ANY warning that 2 feet of snow had just started to fall.

From what I can tell all the old school mets are dead. These guys who used to be fairly good at predicting storms back in the 70s, well before supercomputers predicted the weather, are completely silent.

These models are a complete joke. All of them. I will believe a model if it's showing that I could be getting snow while snow is actually falling.

From what I can tell they use androids tossing chicken bones to predict where the storms might go and how much QPF they may have...and the androids are drunk on 90 weight gear oil.

[MinutemanCO]

All right. Fill me in. Why do you want snow?

I can only answer from my own perspective - having to drive about 100 miles a day for work, I would rather it never snowed. I like the cold weather and the seasons, and snow when I don't have to go anywhere. It's beautiful and renewing. But why do you guys want the snow?

[Malsua]

I drive 80 miles round trip to work.

I want the snow because I love severe weather

I also love the snow because it validates the money I've spent on snow removal equipment. I usually make a few bucks during big storms, but it's a pittance.

I love having a guilt free day or two off of work because the state is closed. I don't get paid by the hour, so who cares

I love how severe weather focuses your purpose. What Kanye said at the Grammy's is shown for exactly how meaningless it is when you're trying to clear a path on the road so that someone can get to the Hospital.

During the Ice Storm of December 2008( http://thewellrats.com/malbor2/storm08/) , I spent roughly 8 hours cutting trees while getting bombarded. Limbs and trees were still falling while we were clearing.

I love doing that shit. I get to be the hero for a day, even if it's in my own mind.

The next day, it's back to the boring old commute.

[American Patriot]

/chuckles

I love severe weather too.

However, summer time. No snow. Rain, hail, tornadoes, wind, floods.... storm spotting and the more dangerous "storm chasing".

To hell with snow though.

lol

[Malsua]

If the end of the world ever comes, it's going to be one hell of a ride!

[MinutemanCO]

I get it. Severe weather alters our reality just enough to give us a sense of adventure. There was a day when I enjoyed this too. Now, I worry more about the morons looking to crash into me on the highway. Too bad. I need some adventure.

[Malsua]

I get it. Severe weather alters our reality just enough to give us a sense of adventure. There was a day when I enjoyed this too. Now, I worry more about the morons looking to crash into me on the highway. Too bad. I need some adventure.

Maybe it was something from the days when I lived in Tornado country. Whenever the weather alert siren went off, we'd pay attention and prepare for a twister. We never had one come through our property but there were two that went through within a mile.

When it was over, it was back to boredom again. heh.

[American Patriot]

I get it. Severe weather alters our reality just enough to give us a sense of adventure. There was a day when I enjoyed this too. Now, I worry more about the morons looking to crash into me on the highway. Too bad. I need some adventure.

Well, I can tell you for certain storm CHASING is an adventure. Spotting not so much, it's the safer version of chasing.

We were out on the lake one day and got caught by a late afternoon (which turned into night time, and then all night) storm, complete with lightning, thunder, high winds (the peak gusts were at 70 mph) - that was an adventure. I had to get the sails down, an anchor out as it came up (it was NOT expected or predicted for the day, in fact that day it was supposed to be clear and light winds) then it turned to two anchors, neither of which were holding correctly, so I started the engine and basically drove the boat into the shore line after dropping a stern anchor and raising the keel.

We tied three lines off to trees, had a stern anchor out and had dropped all sail and even removed them from the masts to keep the boat in place.

Man it was a loud, rough night but we got through it fine. lol

Sad part was, I wasn't even STORM CHASING - it came to us haha

[MinutemanCO]

That's pretty close. Tornado sirens have the capacity to instill fear, or maybe it's extreme readiness.

I remember when I was a kid living south of Syracuse, NY. Maybe I was a freshman or sophomore in high school. We received about four feet of snow from a winter storm. It was rare that Syracuse ever shut down due to weather, but at that time people were sent home at about mid-day. Some were trapped in their cars and had to walk home. A friend of mine got word that two girls from our class were missing, thought to be stranded about five miles from our town. We suited up and rode snowmobiles down the state highway in search of these girls. (We'd do just about anything for girls in those days.) I distinctly remember that it felt like we were part of a Mad Max story. End of the world. Only two women left. Had to find them. Too bad we got bad information. We found no one stranded anywhere. It was fun nonetheless. Made for good memories.

[American Patriot]

I distinctly remember that it felt like we were part of a Mad Max story. End of the world. Only two women left. Had to find them.

Too bad it wasn't end of the world. lol

[MinutemanCO]

Well, I can tell you for certain storm CHASING is an adventure. Spotting not so much, it's the safer version of chasing.

We were out on the lake one day and got caught by a late afternoon (which turned into night time, and then all night) storm, complete with lightning, thunder, high winds (the peak gusts were at 70 mph) - that was an adventure. I had to get the sails down, an anchor out as it came up (it was NOT expected or predicted for the day, in fact that day it was supposed to be clear and light winds) then it turned to two anchors, neither of which were holding correctly, so I started the engine and basically drove the boat into the shore line after dropping a stern anchor and raising the keel.

We tied three lines off to trees, had a stern anchor out and had dropped all sail and even removed them from the masts to keep the boat in place.

Man it was a loud, rough night but we got through it fine. lol

Sad part was, I wasn't even STORM CHASING - it came to us haha

That's a mean sounding storm. Did you ever worry that the boat was going to go over?

[American Patriot]

That's a mean sounding storm. Did you ever worry that the boat was going to go over?

No, never.

No sails were up. So the wind was pushing on the masts. Not that much wind resistance there. Now, having a sail up in something like that would have been bad (and wrong).

Normally a gale is considered to be 38.4–46.3 mph.

That was (or would be on the ocean) considered to be "Violent".

You've lived in CO long enough to know we routinely get 68-70 mph winds on the plains and open areas.

It's "normal".

But being in a boat on a small lake is dangerous in other ways than flipping a boat. Boats and debris can be blown about and hit other things for instance.

On the water there's something called "fetch", the distance over which a storm blows... if you have a wind blowing over a very LONG distance, say 100 miles and the wind is smaller (10-12 knots) eventually you will build up pretty good waves.

On a lake with less than a mile or two across you will never get "huge waves" but you'll get a kind of pattern going where the wind creates waves which reflect back and eventually some of the waves get in sync and get larger, but that's rare.

On an ocean, I wouldn't want to be in anything much over about 30 mph (about 27 knots).

Unless 1) the boat is very heavy, 2) the keel is very heavy and 3) I have a stays'l (stay sail) and/or a storm trysail. Those are small sails that help the boat to stay pointed to the wind. If the winds get higher eventually you're going to "Heave To" (park the boat) and need some small sails, perhaps a sea anchor (which is a parachute used under water) etc

Fortunately, my boat is more like a ship. It' has a full, heavy keel, is heavy displacement (between 16-18 tons), has the right sails etc.

[MinutemanCO]

Fortunately, my boat is more like a ship. It' has a full, heavy keel, is heavy displacement (between 16-18 tons), has the right sails etc.

The new one?

Out of curiosity, have you ever read The Shipkiller by Justin Scott?

[Malsua]

Here's an example of how unreliable these models have become. Does that look like how a storm should move in 12 hours?

This morning we had this:


This afternoon we had thisI.e. Ryan gets no snow)

[Ryan Ruck]

I don't know whether to or

[Ryan Ruck]

Saw this posted to the Accuweather thread for this Monday/Tuesday storm/non-event ().

It's from the KDVN (Davenport, IA) NOAA office AFD:

ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

TRENDS IN THE MODELS FOR THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY EVENT IS TO TAKE THE
SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. A RECENT TREND WITH THE MODELS IS THAT THEY
SEEM TO BE MORE ACCURATE ABOUT A WEEK OUT...THEN DIVERGE AND RETURN
TO THE EARLIER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE EVENT. IM NOT SAYING THIS WILL
HAPPEN HERE...ITS A POINT TO KEEP IN MIND. THINK THERE ARE STILL
MAJOR PHASING ISSUES...SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. AFTER THIS...WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THIS WEEKEND WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. GIBBS

[Ryan Ruck]

All right. Fill me in. Why do you want snow?

I can only answer from my own perspective - having to drive about 100 miles a day for work, I would rather it never snowed. I like the cold weather and the seasons, and snow when I don't have to go anywhere. It's beautiful and renewing. But why do you guys want the snow?

Mal pretty much covered it (minus the snow removal equipment for me, I just have a snow shovel ), especially the time off work. I can't safely drive, I can't do my job but still get paid due to "Act of God".

I would also add that I love getting out in the deep stuff on my quad decked out in cold weather gear. So much fun tearing around the woods and fields!

And it brightens up a drab, brown/gray, and dead Winter landscape.

[American Patriot]

The new one?

Out of curiosity, have you ever read The Shipkiller by Justin Scott?

Nope.

[Phil Fiord]

From where I am living these storms that were to bring substantial snow headed northerly as well. The Allegheny mountains are buffering the weather to push north and go around it seems from maps.