Weather Thread

[Ryan Ruck]

Going on almost 2 years since we've seen a Winter Storm Warning.

[Ryan Ruck]

Corpus Christi, TX getting more snow than I've seen in a while.

[Malsua]

Gonna get a big storm tomorrow or at least that's what you'd think considering the highway signs are reading "storm coming" and the news is going full on panic mode. I think a whole 2 inches is forecast

[Ryan Ruck]

Oh, hi Mississippi and Louisiana! You guys got to enjoy the fun too?

[Ryan Ruck]

Looks like we might be getting our first white Christmas in a very long time, and timed perfectly for Christmas morning!

Small system is supposed to come through Christmas Eve night and drop 1-2". Not a monster but enough to give everything a nice mood coating.

I've seen some mets say the system might overachieve which would certainly be nice.

[Ryan Ruck]

Well, looks like the models that projected 1" (most of them) were spot on.

Started yesterday when I was at the Bengals game (I got free tickets that had been donated by the team to an organization so no money to the NFL, place was half filled at best). Occasional tiny flurries while we were sitting there watching until we left at the start of the 3Q.

Picked up while at my brother's in-laws for Christmas dinner. Was coming down at a pretty good clip. Most of the streets had melt since we were so warm leading up to the storm but they did eventually get a slight coating in some spots. As mentioned, ended up with about an inch on the grassy areas.

Temps crashed pretty fast as a strong wind come in out of the NW and it looks like they're going to remain below normal for a bit. Wind is just now starting to die down.

Total so far this season is about 2".

Talk of more weather around New Year...

[Ryan Ruck]

Had a clipper come through the area last night. Ended up with another 1-1.25" of powder. The temperature has been so below normal the last couple days, it had no problem covering the roads. Up north near Dayton and Columbus they apparently netted 3-4".

Then we had some very light snow most of the morning for a followup .25" or so dusting.

Seasonal total now a whopping ~3.5". Nothing like bitter cold to go with a pathetic amount of snow!

[American Patriot]

Yikes. I hate cold.

Have I mentioned that?

[Ryan Ruck]

Yikes. I hate cold.

Have I mentioned that?

You should probably stay out of the Ohio Valley in that case.




But, we do have this going for us.

[American Patriot]

Winter Storm Warning for us.

I justr checked radar and it's moving in, should be here in an hour or two. Ice, snow in the forecast, winds maybe. There is a frontal ridge off the coast, running the length of Florida to as far as just south of my location, and moving northward. The snow and rain is falling inland and south right now.

Looking wicked.

[Ryan Ruck]

Going on almost 2 years since we've seen a Winter Storm Warning.

Add 30 more days... Coming up on 700 days with no significant snow event.




Meanwhile it looks like Thursday is supposed to get above 60, in the middle of January! Guess I'll go hose off all the salt on my truck from our 1.5" "storm".

[Malsua]

We've had 5 shitty storms, one brought about 5 inches. The rest have been 1-3 type deals. I.e. Nothing fun.

It looks like we're done with big storms till at least February and the MJO is indicating we're not going to get shit in Feb either. Winter is done

[Ryan Ruck]

For us, there's talk of a potential big system Friday into Saturday.

The models have been going back and forth on where exactly but they're all saying a big system in that time frame. Guess we'll know more on Wednesday when it gets sampled.

I'm going to go check my snow chains just to make sure we don't get anything.

[Ryan Ruck]

Lock it down!

On the other hand, oh my...



Guess it might be a good idea to top up the kerosene and diesel.


Just watched one local met on the 11pm news. All he would commit to was that there will be accumulating snow, no commitment at all to amounts. Just showed visuals of 4 models, no names for them, just #1-4.

[Ryan Ruck]

Local met just called for highest probability of storm being 2-5" total by Saturday (didn't give any totals on FZR/sleet but Accuweather is saying "An icy mix up to 1" "). I'd be okay (just okay) with 5" as that'd be the most single storm total I've seen in a spell. Still mentioned below 50% probabilities of +6" so who knows since, you know, local mets have never been wrong.

[Ryan Ruck]

Things still looking a bit uncertain with this right around the corner.

We've gone from a crush job 4-5 days out, to a nuisance a couple days later, and now models are bringing this back in to decent territory.

And I saw this... I'm in the blue area FYI. Can't believe it's been nearly 3 years for the Dayton area. I could have sworn they got a decent snow last year (like in the 6"+ territory) but it might have been a surprise storm that dumped more than expected on them so the NWS didn't have a chance to issue.

[Ryan Ruck]

I think this might just be a Wilmington, OH (ILN) only utility but I thought it was pretty cool.

You can go back to 1999 to see significant weather events and how they impacted the forecast area.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/events

You could try substituting your local WX office's 3 letter ID in place of ILN's in the URL to see if there's others with the same thing but I didn't see any links.

Would be nice if it went back further. Would like to see the data on some of the heavy hitting snows we had in the mid/early 90s as I recall some decent ones in '94 and '95, one of which was right around Halloween.

[Ryan Ruck]

Talk about getting the rug pulled out from under you overnight... Looking at SREF Plumes, my mean (at CVG which is a decent bit west of me but about the same latitude) is down to around 2.5" now from 4.5" with the highest outlier model not even showing 5".

On top of that we're not even getting the benefit of any sleet/ice. We're at 34-35 with light rain and about to get/getting dry slotted. Literally the worst of everything.



The Winter Storm Warning drought continues...



I know we can get good snows up through early March here (and some of the heaviest have happened then but they tend to be short lived) but I'm about to join your camp Mal and throw in the towel for this winter. Hell, I'd be glad to get the 5"er you saw. Damn do I need to move.

[Ryan Ruck]

Well, temp has plunged 10 degrees in the last 3 hours or so and winds are steady in the 10+ category with frequent gusts above 20 and, the dry slot looks to have filled in.

NAM saying we might still luck out but I'll believe it when I see it...

[Ryan Ruck]

Storm looks to be wrapping up here soon. No surprise, didn't get anywhere near what the 18z NAM was showing. LOL

Even though the snowfall rates and totals weren't overly impressive and met the local mets' forecasts, the amount of wind we've gotten with the sleet under the snowpack made it a bit worse than it looks on paper. Not enough to get me to go out and play in it with the truck but, it was a bit bigger than some models might have suggested.

I'd venture we got maybe 3"-4" but, due to the winds and drifting, it's hard to get an accurate measurement. I've got spots in my yard with grass exposed and other spots where it's at least 6"-7" drifted.

The wind is still very impressive with this. It's been a solid 10+ with 20+ gusts the whole time. Some local wind measurements recorded 40 gusts. Combine that with the 18 degree current temp and it makes for a nasty wind chill!