Weather Thread

[Ryan Ruck]

Looks like the last weather thread was the victim of friendly fire so time to start up a new one.

"Farmers' Almanac" Predicts A "Bitterly Cold" Winter

August 25, 2013



The Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."

The 197-year-old publication that hits newsstands Monday predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.

"We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

Based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles, the almanac's secret formula is largely unchanged since founder David Young published the first almanac in 1818.

Modern scientists don't put much stock in sunspots or tidal action, but the almanac says its forecasts used by readers to plan weddings and plant gardens are correct about 80 percent of the time.

Last year, the forecast called for cold weather for the eastern and central U.S. with milder temperatures west of the Great Lakes. It started just the opposite but ended up that way.

Caleb Weatherbee, the publication's elusive prognosticator, said he was off by only a couple of days on two of the season's biggest storms: a February blizzard that paralyzed the Northeast with 3 feet of snow in some places and a sloppy storm the day before spring's arrival that buried parts of New England.

Readers who put stock in the almanac's forecasts may do well to stock up on long johns, especially if they're lucky enough to get tickets to the Super Bowl on Feb. 2. The first Super Bowl held outdoors in a cold-weather environment could be both super cold and super messy, with a big storm due Feb. 1 to 3, the almanac says.

Said Duncan: "It really looks like the Super Bowl may be the Storm Bowl."

The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac, which will be published next month, features a mix of corny jokes, gardening tips, nostalgia and home remedies, like feeding carrots to dogs to help with bad breath and using mashed bananas to soothe dry, cracked skin in the winter.

Also in this year's edition, editor Peter Geiger is leading a campaign to get people to ditch the penny, like Canada is doing.

Past campaigns have focused on moving Thanksgiving to harvest time in October, reconsidering "The Star-Spangled Banner" as the national anthem and changing the color of money. This time, Geiger thinks he has a winner.

He wants people to donate pennies to charity and then lobby Congress to stop making them.

"They don't get used very much. They get tossed. The only real use of a penny is if you save tens of thousands of them, then you can use them to help someone," he said.

I can't say I'd be overly surprised with their prediction coming true with how mild and wet this summer has been.

[MinutemanCO]

Colorado Flooding: 3 Dead, Mountain Towns Cut Off Sean Breslin Published: Sep 12, 2013, 3:37 PM EDT weather.com

Heavy rains sent walls of water crashing down mountainsides Thursday in Colorado, cutting off remote towns, forcing the state's largest university to close and leaving at least three people dead across a rugged landscape that included areas blackened by recent wildfires.

A warm, moist storm system has been dropping rain on the region for much of the week. Up to 8 inches fell in an area spanning from the Wyoming border south to the foothills west of Denver. Flooding extended all along the Front Range mountains, including the cities of Colorado Springs, Denver, Fort Collins, Greeley, Aurora and Boulder.

"A slow-moving area of low pressure over the Rockies combined with a moist, southerly flow at all levels of the atmosphere will keep the threat of locally heavy rain and flooding in place into the weekend," said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.

Since the rain began falling on Monday, Boulder has received 9.61 inches of rain through Thursday afternoon, according to weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman. That three-day period exceeds the monthly record of 9.59 inches, set in May 1995.

Colorado governor John Hickenlooper tweeted that the Department of Defense will send Coast Guard helicopters to flooded areas to help with the situation, and Jane Brautigam, city manager in Boulder, has issued a local disaster and emergency declaration.

Boulder Office of Emergency Management spokeswoman Gabrielle Boerkircher said many roads were blocked and volunteers were trying to help stranded people until emergency crews could arrive.

Boerkircher told The Associated Press one person was killed when a structure collapsed in the tiny town of Jamestown. Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle said another person was also found dead in northern Boulder.

"We're trying to get to Jamestown," Boerkircher said of a mountain community northwest of Boulder. "A lot of towns need assistance, and we cannot get through."
Two other structures in the area were also damaged and may have collapsed.
To the south, Colorado Springs spokeswoman Kim Melchor said police conducting flood patrols found a body in Fountain Creek on the west side of the city early Thursday.

Radar rainfall estimate over northern Colorado triggering major flash flooding in Boulder and Lyons, Colo.

"We're concerned about hypothermia, we're concerned about injury, we're concerned about all those things, and yet we're unable to get to folks," said Joe Pelle, Boulder County Sheriff. "Through no fault of any rescuer or any rescue agency; it's just completely unaccessible."

The flood waters triggered mudslides and have damaged or washed away at least three buildings in the mountains. They've also caused three cars to plunge into rushing water after a road collapsed in suburban Denver.

Flooded roadways and abandoned cars were also reported in Aurora late Thursday morning. Numerous cars were abandoned on I-70 and I-225 near Aurora as water rescues occurred, according to the Aurora Sentinel.

The National Weather Service warned of an "extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation" throughout the region as the flooding forced people from their homes, canceled classes and led to mudslides and rockslides in some areas. The town of Lyons remained cut off due to flood waters late Thursday morning, NWS Boulder reported.

"Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life," the Weather Service warned in numerous bulletins that went out throughout the morning.

"We're very concerned that land is continually unstable and water is going to keep coming down through the canyon," said Boulder EMA spokesman Andrew Bart. "We're also very concerned that there are definitely people trapped."

The Weather Service said that county officials reported some homes had collapsed in Jamestown, where dozens of people live, according to a report by the The Denver Post. The town's residents were also being advised to boil their water, as it may be contaminated.

Near Lyons, about 2 feet of water was standing on U.S. Highway 36 as a normally shallow creek known for trout fishing flooded its banks.

“Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.”
National Weather Service bulletin

At least one earthen dam gave way southeast of Estes Park, the gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park, and water levels could rise downstream as authorities release more water to keep more dams from giving way.

A National Guard helicopter requested to help pull people from their homes hasn't been able to take off because of fog and low cloud cover throughout the area.
Flash flood warnings were issued for multiple counties in the region, including Jamestown and the Fourmile wildfire burn area.

Flash flood emergencies were also issued downstream from the Front Range mountain areas, including Fort Lupton, Dacono, Plateville and other farming areas as debris piled up near bridges.

An evacuation center for the mountain residents has been sent up in nearby Nederland, officials said.

Meanwhile, hundreds of students in residences at the University of Colorado in Boulder were evacuated and classes were canceled Thursday and Friday because of the flooding. Approximately 25 percent of buildings on the campus suffered some form of water damage, according to Ryan Huff, Public Information Officer for the City of Boulder.

Mudslides and rockslides were reported in several areas, with parts of U.S. 6, Boulder Canyon, Colorado 14 and U.S. 287 all reporting problems and temporary blockages during the evening Lefthand Canyon was reported blocked by one of the many slides.

Boulder police dispatchers were receiving calls of flooded homes and streets and submerged cars.

[American Patriot]

Lyons is cut off I heard. I knew one was dead in the Springs sometime last night. Don't know the particulars yet.

Saw a pretty cool rescue this morning on the news though up in the Boulder area.

[MinutemanCO]

It's just plain nasty here.

I'm leaving the office and setting out for home, some 40 miles away, in my trusty Super Duty. If you all don't hear from me in a day or two, send out a search party.

[American Patriot]

Are you safe?

[American Patriot]

They just put ARES on Flood alert here in COS

[Ryan Ruck]

This was apparently posted on the 9News website...

[American Patriot]

Lmao!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[American Patriot]

Ok, Lyons CO is completely cut off. No running water, no roads going in or out, no sewage.

I CAN NOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH how this is a SURVIVAL situation for these people.

THIS is the kind of kind of thing I keep telling you all to prepare for!!!!

[American Patriot]

CBS/AP/ September 13, 2013, 8:13 AM
Colorado flooding forces thousands more evacuations

• More +

Updated at 8:13 a.m. ET
LYONS, Colo. With rain still falling and the flood threat still real, authorities called on thousands more people in the inundated city of Boulder and a mountain hamlet to evacuate as nearby creeks rose to dangerous levels.
The late-night reports from Boulder and the village of Eldorado Springs came as rescuers struggled to reach dozens of people cut off by flooding in Colorado mountain communities, while residents in the Denver area and other downstream communities were warned to stay off flooded streets.

22 Photos
Flash flooding swamps Colorado

Play Video
Flash flooding reported in five states

Play Video
Colo. towns drenched as mountainsides scorched by wildfires can't stop rain

Play Video
Watch: Man rescued from flooded car

The towns of Lyons, Jamestown and others in the Rocky Mountain foothills have been isolated by flooding and without power or telephone since rain hanging over the region all week intensified late Wednesday and early Thursday.


At least three people were killed and another was missing, and numerous people were forced to seek shelter up and down Colorado's populated Front Range.
Late Thursday night, warning sirens blared in Boulder and city officials sent notice to about 4,000 people living along Boulder Creek around the mouth of Boulder Canyon to head for higher ground, according to Boulder's Daily Camera newspaper.


The alert was prompted by rapidly rising creek levels caused by water backing up at the mouth of the canyon because of debris and mud coming off the mountainsides, the Boulder Office of Emergency Management said.


The creek began to recede after midnight, but the conditions remain dangerous and a surprising amount of water is still flowing into the city's streets, Police Chief Mark Beckner told the Daily Camera after touring the damage.


Nick Grossman, of the Boulder Office of Emergency Management, told CBS News early Friday that Emerson Gulch, west of Boulder, washed out due to heavy rain, saturated soil and tumbling debris. The gushing water was filling Boulder Creek, which heads into downtown. That was likely to cause more flooding.
Meteorologist Dave Aguilera of CBS Denver station KCNC was predicting heavy rain in the region through Friday morning.


Early Friday, Boulder County spokesman James Burrus said the entire hamlet of Eldorado Springs, about 500 people, was urged to evacuate because of a flash flood and mudslide threat along South Boulder Creek.


In Fort Collins, neighborhoods along the Cache La Poudre River were evacuated overnight, with the river expected to rise to nearly 2 feet above flood stage Friday morning, according to the National Weather Service.


City officials in Fort Collins closed bridges after water began topping Seaman Reservoir in the Poudre Canyon, The Denver Post reported. The city warned residents to stay clear of the river.


In Lyons, residents took shelter on higher ground, including some at an elementary school. Although everyone was believed to be safe, the deluge was expected to continue into Friday.


"There's no way out of town. There's no way into town. So, basically, now we're just on an island," said Jason Stillman, 37, who was forced with his fiancee to evacuate their home in Lyons at about 3 a.m. after a nearby river began to overflow into the street.
The Colorado National Guard began trucking people out of Lyons on Thursday evening.
Flood water shoots out of a sewer next to the Cliff House in Manitou Springs, Colo., Sept. 12, 2013.
/ AP Photo/The Gazette



To the north, residents along the Big Thompson Canyon in Larimer County, scene of the deadliest flash flood in state history, were also evacuated. The Big Thompson River flooded in 1976 after about a foot of rain fell in just four hours, killing 144 people.


Early Friday, the National Weather Service warned of more flash flooding in Loveland, according to the Post. NOAA reported that the Big Thompson River at Drake was more than 4 feet above its flood stage of 6 feet.


Water roaring across U.S. Highway 36 south of Lyons prevented residents from leaving the Crestview subdivision, so Howard Wachtel arranged for someone to meet him at a roadblock for a ride to a gas station. He needed more gasoline to keep his generator running so he could pump water out of his basement.


"This is more like something out of the Bible. I saw one of my neighbors building an ark," he joked, over the sound of the rushing water.


President Obama signed an emergency declaration Thursday night, freeing federal aid and allowing the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster relief efforts.


The rain has been produced by a low pressure system that has been stationed over Nevada since late Sunday, said National Weather Service meteorologist Todd Dankers in Boulder.


The low has drawn subtropical moisture from the Mexican mainland over New Mexico and into the Rockies' foothills in Colorado — and it's been trapped by a stationary upper level ridge over the Great Plains and another system over the Great Lakes, Dankers said. The moisture becomes rain when it hits the mountains, the end result of a system he described as "a monsoon conveyer belt."


So-called monsoon rains common to Colorado usually occur in late July and August and are typically brief events that provide welcome moisture to a normally sunny, arid state.


Some of the flooding was exacerbated by wildfire "burn scars" that have spawned flash floods all summer in the mountains. That was particularly true in an area scarred by fire in 2010 near the tiny community of Jamestown and another near Colorado Springs' Waldo Canyon that was hit in 2012.


Rain is normally soaked up by a sponge-like layer of pine needles and twigs on the forest floor. But wildfires incinerate that layer and leave a residue in the top layer of soil that sheds water. A relatively light rain can rush down charred hillsides into streambeds, picking up dirt, ash, rocks and tree limbs along the way. Narrow canyons aggravate the threat.


The University of Colorado canceled classes at least through Friday after a quarter of its buildings were flooded. Students in family housing near Boulder Creek were also forced to leave.


One person was killed when a structure collapsed in the tiny town of Jamestown northwest of Boulder. Another man drowned in floodwaters north of Boulder early Thursday and a woman who was with him was missing.


The woman was swept away after the vehicle she was riding in got stuck in water. The man died after getting out of the vehicle to help her, Commander Heidi Prentup of the Boulder Sheriff's Office said.
A firefighter that had been trapped in a tree in Lefthand Canyon by flooding was rescued and treated, she said.


To the south, Colorado Springs police conducting flood patrols found the body of 54-year-old Danny Davis in Fountain Creek on the west side of the city.


At least one earthen dam gave way southeast of Estes Park, the gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park. Water levels could rise downstream as authorities release more water to ease pressure on dams. With debris piling up near bridges, downstream farming areas including Fort Lupton, Dacono and Plateville were also at risk.



© 2013 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[American Patriot]

30-foot 'surge of water, mud, rocks' dissipates before hitting Boulder, Colorado

From Denver to Boulder to Colorado Springs, residents are evacuating from massive floodwaters that have paralyzed parts of the state, and have massive dams on the verge of breaking. NBC's Joe Fryer reports.

By Alexander Smith and Jason Cumming, NBC News
A 30-foot deep "surge of water, mud, rocks and debris" dissipated before reaching the outskirts of Boulder, Colo., emergency officials said early Friday.
Area residents were told to move to higher ground after a witness spotted the surge -- which included cars -- heading down Fourmile Creek toward Boulder Creek around 11:10 p.m. local time (1:10 a.m. ET), according to the Boulder Office of Emergency Management. The National Weather Service had initially characterized the incident as "potentially life threatening."
The surge flattened out as the canyon became less steep toward the city and by the time it arrived at Boulder Creek it was not nearly as severe as initially feared, officials said.
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Some 4,000 people in the city were given mandatory evacuation orders late Thursday and another 4,000 were told to shelter in place, police said. At least three people died in flash floods in the area on Thursday.
Fire Chief Gerry Morrell in Lafayette, Colorado released video of crews rescuing a man from a car trapped in flood waters.

Officials said 17 people were unaccounted for early Friday but it was unclear whether they were in danger.
Nick Grossman, public information officer at the Boulder Office of Emergency Management said there was no further information on who the people were or under what circumstances they had been reported missing.
“These are people who family members have reported not knowing where they are,” he said. “As it gets light in the morning we will reassess the situation and hopefully be able to account for these people who are out there. In these cases a friend or family member is concerned because they have not been able to contact them through the usual ways and means. It could just be that their cellphone as got wet, so it’s hard to say at this time if they are in danger.”
Boulder Police Deputy Chief Greg Testa said early Friday that water levels appeared to be "slowly receding."
He said the flow of water in Boulder Creek was running at 5,000 cubic feet per second at 8:45 p.m. local time (10:45 p.m. ET) Thursday, the time when the evacuation order was given. But at 2 a.m. Friday (4 a.m. ET), it was down to 3,800 cubic feet per second.
The National Weather Service also issued flash flood warnings until 6 a.m. local time (8 a.m. ET) for northern Jefferson County and Boulder County.
In the foothills north of Boulder, Colorado,  Lee Hill Drive has been hit hard by floodwaters. NBC's Joe Fryer spoke  with some of the residents.

"At 11:53 p.m. MDT emergency management reported a new round of severe flash flooding in Fourmile Creek, Boulder Creek and Lefthand Canyon in Boulder County," the NWS said. "If you are near Bouder or Fourmile Creeks, get to higher ground now. Do not try to outrun this flash flood!"
Earlier, the Boulder Office of Emergency Management issued two emergency alerts to 8,000 phone numbers for residents along Boulder Creek, telling some to move to higher ground without crossing the creek and others to shelter in place but to move to higher floors if possible.
Scores of Boulder residents remained sheltered in a local YMCA early Friday as the region washed by days of rain and now flash floods braced against the continuing storms.
About 6.8 inches of rain fell over the city in a 24-hour period, according to the National Weather Service.
Officials were uncertain as to when the period of intense weather would end.
“We have been told it is supposed to be raining half and inch to an inch per hour but we don’t know when it is going to abate,” Burrus added. “Supposedly it could stop Friday evening but it’s really hard to tell. It’s a slow-moving system which is locked in. On our radar you can just see the stuff rolling up the mountains of New Mexico. If this was December we would be looking at 10 feet of snow.”
Slideshow: Deadly flash floods swamp Colorado

/
Days of heavy rainfall left three people dead and forced evacuations for residents of Boulder and nearby towns.

[Malsua]

Is your drought over yet?

[Malsua]

Ok, Lyons CO is completely cut off. No running water, no roads going in or out, no sewage.

I CAN NOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH how this is a SURVIVAL situation for these people.

THIS is the kind of kind of thing I keep telling you all to prepare for!!!!

I'm prepared. The Generator would kick in, and I'd have food, water, heat, sewage and entertainment.

[Malsua]

This was apparently posted on the 9News website...

C'mon, these folks aren't that dumb. I'm guessing viral hoax.

[Malsua]

I'm looking for that slideshow...can't find it.

[American Patriot]

I'm prepared. The Generator would kick in, and I'd have food, water, heat, sewage and entertainment.

Well, technically, Mal, I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to the thousands of people who've laughed over the years about shit like this happening.

/shrug.

Oh, drought... no, I think that NOAA is still saying we're in a drought as of yesterday.

LMAO!

[American Patriot]

I'm absolutely sure it got taken down when it was point out.

And, yes, Mal, they ARE that dumb up in Denver.

[MinutemanCO]

This weather event is just sick. Preparedness suddenly became the highest priority for thousands around here.

My house is on high ground (thankfully). Nearest river is five miles to the north and 180' of elevation separate us. However, my sump pump picked this event to call it quits. @#%*& thing. After hand bailing the sump for two hours (nice workout, that), I decided to try to buy a new one. Yeah, right. I can hear everyone here saying... good friggin luck, moron. So, the distinct pleasure of driving to Home Depot in the storm was bestowed upon me and my truck. With flooding and road closures, it took 45 minutes to negotiate a path to HD. I was the only customer in the store. They stayed open just for me . Of course, HD was fresh out of sump pumps. Big surprise. They did sell me a display model, 1/2 HP irrigation pump which did the trick just fine. Didn't have the auto turn-on is all. Worked like a charm.

It's pretty scary out there though. The South Platte River looks like a lake and secondary tributaries are like white water. I can't even imagine the cost of the damage, not to mention the lives lost. This weather pattern is so unlike anything I've ever seen here in Colorado for the 17 years I've been here.

Last word for now... it's still raining.

[American Patriot]

Stay dry... as you can.

It's going to rain more today, similar to yesterday I'm hearing.

We didn't get hit as hard here in my area, but the rivers (which are usually dry) were full of water this morning.

Highway 24 is mostly destroyed. Down to one working lane and they are allowing people to go up and come down the mountain, but it's a wicked long time to get up or down I heard.

[Ryan Ruck]

MMCO,
That is exactly why I've recommended to my brother and friend who have sumps to have at least 1 or 2 backup pumps.

Even a couple Harbor Freight cheapies could save headaches. If you have a HF near you, might want to swing by and see if they have any of these:

http://www.harborfreight.com/1-horse...oat-69300.html

http://www.harborfreight.com/34-hors...tch-69299.html

http://www.harborfreight.com/3200-gp...ump-68454.html

http://www.harborfreight.com/2800-gp...ump-68455.html

http://www.harborfreight.com/1-horse...oat-69301.html

http://www.harborfreight.com/3000-gp...ump-68476.html