Weather Thread

[American Patriot]

Alert

Hawaii Storm Threat Now Tale of Two Hurricanes: Iselle and Julio

August 4, 2014

(Above) This image stitched together from two different NOAA satellite images, shows a well defined Major Hurricane Iselle and the formulating threat of Tropical Storm Julio in her wake.



HILO, Hawaii – 1,150 miles from the Big Island, Category 4 Hurricane Iselle continues its western path at 8 miles per hour. Although the storm formation has held at a “remarkably steady state”, forecasters still believe Iselle will weaken to a Tropical Storm by the time it hits Hawaii. However, concern is growing over another storm following close behind.


Tropical Storm Julio – following in the wake of Iselle – is presently much weaker (60 mph winds compared to Iselle’s 135 mph). Yet the 5-Day Forecast Cone (below) created by the National Weather Service shows Julio as a hurricane strength storm as it nears the Big Island. The two storms are expected to follow a very similar path across the state, and if the tracks hold it could be a damaging one-two punch to the Hawaiian Islands.





Here is what the National Weather Service says about a strengthening Julio:

Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM AMSR2 microwave overpass show that Julio’s cloud pattern continues to gradually improve. Cold tops of -80 C are now evident in association with the developing banding feature south of the center. The AMSR2 pass as well as visible imagery also indicated that deep convection is now wrapping around the northeast portion of the cyclone despite the relatively moderate northeasterly shear.National Weather Service at 5 p.m. HST

But the first threat is posed by Hurricane Iselle. Hawaii Island should expect to feel the impact on Thursday night. By that time it should be much weaker, forecasters say, but at this point in time its making quite an impression. The hurricane continues to maintain a classic annular structure, which may account for its failure to weaken faster than it has. Images show a large, circular eye surrounded by a nearly uniform ring of convection.


However ominous the system appears, the National Weather Service is unwavering in its prediction that Iselle will become a Tropical Storm before landfall.

Iselle should retain its current annular characteristics during the next 12 hour or so, and thus only slow weakening is likely. After that time, enough of an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and the ingestion of drier and more stable air should disrupt the status quo and result in steadier weakening. Even further weakening should occur by the time the center of Iselle approaches the Hawaiian Islands in 48-72 hours, mostly as a result of a very dry air mass in which the storm will be moving.”National Weather Service at 5 p.m. HST

The National Weather Service also offered a statement as to how much weight we should be giving these storm track maps.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average intensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from the center.”National Weather Service at 5 p.m. HST

[American Patriot]

Hurricane Iselle Continues on Track Toward Hawaiʻi

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August 4th, 2014 · 8 Disqus Comments · 51
Facebook Comments · Featured, Hurricane Tracker, Maui News, Weather
Hurricane Iselle 5-day track. Image courtesy Central Pacific Hurricane Center/NOAA/NWS.

By Wendy Osher
Hurricane Iselle has increased strength and is now listed as a Category 4 hurricane.
The system was located about 1,245 miles east of Hilo, and 1,345 miles ESE of Kahului this morning, and was moving west at 10 mph.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say the system has sustained winds of 140 mph, with hurricane force winds extending outward from the center up to 35 miles, and tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 105 miles.
The system is expected to move into the Central Pacific on Tuesday morning. Forecasters say the system is projected to pass over or near the Big Island of Hawaiʻi as early as Thursday night, with other islands in the state seeing possible impacts by Friday.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say little change is expected in Iselle’s strength today, but gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Hurricane Iselle satellite imagery, Monday, Aug. 4, 2014. Image courtesy Central Pacific Hurricane Center/NOAA/NWS.



Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service say there is still uncertainty surrounding the exact track of the system and its potential impacts on the state.


Further to the east, forecasters are tracking a separate system, Tropical Storm Julio, which is locate 2,395 miles ESE of Hilo and 2,485 miles ESE of Kahului, Maui. Julio was last located southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.


Julio continues to move west at 13 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center is projecting that Julio will have some strengthening in the next 48 hours, and could be near hurricane strength on Wednesday.


The hurricane season in Hawaii began on June 1, and runs through November 30.

[American Patriot]

Polar vortex in September’s forecast

07 Thursday Aug 2014
Posted by Daniel Crane in US News, Weather
≈ Leave a comment

Tags
Cold Weather, global warming, North East, Polar Vortex, September, Weather


If you’re not ready to read about early winterlike weather, turn the page.
Click to a different article.
You’ve been warned.
The polar vortex – that extremely cold air that swirls above the North Pole – may make a brief visit to the Northeast next month, AccuWeather.com reported Wednesday.
“There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid to late September,” said Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range forecaster for the State College, Pa.-based weather forecasting service.
The polar vortex, you may remember, led many local school districts to exceed their annual allotment of snow days last winter because temperatures and the wind chill were considered too dangerously cold for children to be outside. It also was blamed for copious amounts of lake-effect snow.
AccuWeather has even more bad news for fair weather fans: El Niño, the flow of unusually warm surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes rain and temperature patterns, will debut early this winter, fueling early snow across the Northeast.
“December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms. The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January,” Pastelok said.
Read more at The Buffalo News

[Phil Fiord]

Hi American Patriot, I missed your post of August 1 about bertha? Anyway, what I do note is slightly cooler temperatures here this summer. The tick population was huge in May and low now. Fireflies are still active at night as well. Just an odd late summer.

[American Patriot]

Hi American Patriot, I missed your post of August 1 about bertha? Anyway, what I do note is slightly cooler temperatures here this summer. The tick population was huge in May and low now. Fireflies are still active at night as well. Just an odd late summer.

Missed ya by THAT much!

#AceNewsGroup 10:39 on August 7, 2014 Reply | Follow

BRITAIN: ‘ Remnants of Hurricane Bertha Due to Hit UK Over This Weekend ‘

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#AceWorldNews – BRITAIN – August 06 – Nearly a month’s rain could fall in just a few hours in parts of Britain this weekend as the remnants of Hurricane Bertha blow across the Atlantic.

​Forecasters now believe there is a 60% chance that the hurricane’s last gasp will arrive in the south on Sunday, putting a stop to the recent glorious weather.
Severe weather warnings have been issued across the south east with strong winds, torrential rain and large waves expected to batter the region for most of the day.
The Met Office has also issued a severe warning for Friday, when another band of low pressure stretching from London to Manchester is set to bring up to 1.9 inches of rain in some areas.
#ANS2014

[Ryan Ruck]

I have a feeling this Winter is going to be colder and nastier than last with as cool as this Summer has been, at least for those of us here in the GL/OV area.

I've already picked up another 10k BTU radiant kerosene heater and have plans to pick up another (for a total of 3) and a 3rd 23k BTU convection kerosene heater.

I wish I owned the house I'm in as I'd be installing a wood burning stove or 2 but I rent and can't modify the place that extensively. Plus, I know of no way to safely and temporarily install a wood burning stove. Maybe installing sheet metal in a window opening and running the flue through it and up above the roof but I just don't think that's feasible or safe.

With the power grid having been under as heavy strain as it was reported as being last winter I certainly don't want to be relying heavily on just electric heat or an electric powered furnace.

[American Patriot]

You can always have it installed with the permission of the owner... no?

[American Patriot]

Tropical Storm Iselle Batters Hawaii

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This image provided by NOAA taken at 2 a.m. EDT Friday Aug. 8, 2014 shows Hurricane Iselle approaching the Island of Hawaii, left as Hurricane Julio with a well defined eye follows. (AP Photo/NOAA)

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• Hawaii Braces for Hurricane Iselle
• Hurricane, Tropical Storm Roll Toward Hawaii

Reuters
Last updated on: August 08, 2014 8:32 AM

Tropical Storm Iselle battered Hawaii with driving winds and rising surf on Friday, knocking down trees and causing power outages, the first of two major storms due to hit the archipelago as the more powerful Hurricane Julio gathered steam behind it.
More than 1,200 people flocked to evacuation shelters across the Big Island, according to County of Hawaii Civil Defense, as heavy rains and strong winds pummeled areas of East Hawaii from the Puna area to the town of Hilo.
Hawaii Electric Light Company had about 5,000 customers without power, mostly in East Hawaii, a Hawaii County official said.
With its eye still about 50 miles (80 km) south of Hilo, on the Big island, Iselle had weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm, packing maximum sustained winds near 70 miles per hour (110 kph), with higher gusts, the U.S. Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in a statement about an hour before midnight on Thursday.
The storm could still bring waves of up to 25 feet (8 meters) on southeast-facing shores on the Big Island over the next few hours before passing south of the state's smaller islands on Friday, Central Pacific Hurricane Center meteorologist Tom Evans said.
"With a few hours before the center making landfall we can still see that high surf on the southeast-facing shore of the Big Island," Evans said.
Farther east, Hurricane Julio had gained momentum and was expected to pass just north of Hawaii by late Monday, Evans said.
That hurricane was upgraded late on Thursday to a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds increasing to near 120 mph (195 kph), the National Hurricane Center said. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph) and was expected to weaken through Saturday.
In anticipation of the rare back-to-back storms, Hawaii residents scrambled to stock up on supplies as state officials warned of the potential for flash floods, mudslides and power outages in the normally calm tourist haven.
Governor Neil Abercrombie signed an emergency proclamation freeing up funds and resources and authorities advised residents to prepare seven-day disaster supply kits and cautioned them against driving except in an emergency.
"Everybody knows that a real rough time is coming," Abercrombie told a news conference.
Hawaii's schools would be closed on Friday, but authorities planned to keep airports open so planes could land in an emergency although some airlines had canceled flights, officials said. Several shopping malls on Oahu would also be closed.
Malia Baron, an Oahu resident visiting the Big Island, known for its volcanoes, black-sand beaches and coffee farms, reported the weather as blustery late on Thursday.
"Our power is out again. It's been on and off all evening and we were lucky enough to finish cooking before one of the longer outages," she said.
Election Plans
Power was out at the Olinda Water Treatment plant in a rural area of Maui, and officials told some 700 water customers to conserve water, County of Maui spokesman Rod Antone said.
Emergency officials also told residents in the area of the Puna Geothermal Venture plant in Pohoiki to stay indoors or evacuate to safe zones after a spill of poisonous hydrogen sulfide. It was not immediately clear how serious the spill was.
Preparations for a primary election scheduled for Saturday continued, officials said, but added they would reassess how to proceed on Friday after Iselle hits.
On the Big Island, a downpour soaked customers who dashed from cars to the Sunshine True Value Hardware store in Kapaau only to discover shelves already picked clean of batteries, flashlights, duct tape and plywood. Sales clerk Caryl Lindamood tried to stay cheerful.
"Mother Nature sure does like to stir things up for us, doesn't she?" she said, joking about both the storms and a small 4.5 magnitude earthquake that struck the Big Island 12 miles (19 km) west of Waimea on Thursday morning.
Robert Trickey, 56, an interior decorator, said he was worried about plate-glass windows that act as walls at his house near Pahoa on the Big Island. Kailua-Kona resident Lisa Hummel, 44, said her family was filling water containers and stocking up on batteries, candles and flashlights, and planned to shelter in their basement when the hurricane arrives.
"We'll probably make a pot of chili and ride it out," she said.

[Malsua]

I"m of the opinion that the previous bad winter means we're going to have a record warm one this year.

[Phil Fiord]

Ryan,

I did a quick search about the wood stove issue and found what may be a good more or less summary link that shows the apparently safe way a man was going to install a wood stove with a pipe out a window. The followup disagrees with the OP with sound advice and an alternative if for a short term.

http://www.doityourself.com/forum/fi...ing-stove.html

[Ryan Ruck]

That's about what I had thought up in my head but, like the followup poster, had misgivings about.

[American Patriot]

System in Atlantic Could Threaten U.S. Coast

WLTX 8:49 a.m. EDT August 21, 2014

(Photo: wltx)

(WLTX) - A disturbance several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is getting better organized as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days.


Presently, the National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.


Computers models are beginning to agree that the system will move into the Caribbean Sea and become better organized. The system may be impacted by interactions with the Greater Antilles. However, most of the models have it off the Southeast coast early next week. Intensity forecasts are a bit uncertain this far out, but it is likely to be at least a tropical storm.


News19 Chief Meteorologist Jim Gandy says that "it is as likely to go into the Gulf of Mexico as up the East coast at this point. However, we have entered the height of hurricane season and all systems of this type have to be watched. All we know at this point is that the system may have the potential to affect the coast of South Carolina by the middle of next week."


A hurricane reconnaissance plane may fly into the system Thursday afternoon if further development occurs overnight.

[American Patriot]

Tropical trouble: Storm forming in the Atlantic?

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 2:59 p.m. EDT August 20, 2014

(Photo: National Hurricane Center)

What's now just a messy swirl of showers and thunderstorms far out in the Atlantic Ocean may spin up into a tropical depression or storm later this week or over the weekend, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).


The hurricane center gave the system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next five days. (A tropical cyclone is a generic term that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.)


It would be the third named tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.


The system is "located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands," the center notes. "Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea."


"The Lesser Antilles will experience gusty winds and heavy showers Thursday night through Friday while it's possible that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico receive similar impacts over the weekend," reported AccuWeather meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.


Beyond that, a track into the Gulf of Mexico is "possible" next week, according to Smerbeck.


But it's far too soon to say what, if any, effect the storm might have on the mainland U.S., the Weather Channel reports.


The hurricane center warns against over-hyping long-range hurricane forecasts: "Now that we have entered the heart of the hurricane season, there is an increase in the Internet hype around disturbances that NHC is monitoring," the NHC notes on its Facebook page.


"Given the long lead times involved, the wide range of possible outcomes and the historically poor and erratic performance of guidance models with weak disturbances, there is no reliable science to forecast potential impacts to specific locations that would be more than a week away," according to the NHC.


This is the slowest start to the Atlantic hurricane season since 2000, AccuWeather reported.


The quiet season has been mainly due to very dry air in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, said Robert Korty, an atmospheric scientist at Texas A&M University.


"It's been a quiet season so far because of all the dry air in the Caribbean and the central Atlantic Ocean," Korty explained. The dry, hot air inhibits storm formation, he said.
In addition to the dry air, disruptive wind shear and lower-than-normal sea surface temperatures have also contributed to the calm season.


So far this season, there have been only two named Atlantic hurricanes, Arthur, which formed on July 1, and Bertha on Aug. 1.


The eastern Pacific, however, has been anything but quiet, as a whopping 12 named tropical cyclones have formed, including six hurricanes, according to the hurricane center. Two tropical storms, Karina and Lowell, are both spinning in the Pacific, far from land.


Follow @USATODAYWeather Twitter

A area of disturbed weather now far out in the Atlantic will slowly try to organize over the next few days and into the weekend. A lack of dry air, reduced wind shear and warm water will help spur formation of the system. Interaction with land would act to weaken the system.(Photo: AccuWeather)

[American Patriot]

Looks like a hurricane might develop, at least a tropical storm. I'm not sure if this is the 3rd or 4th to develop this season in the Caribbean though. Haven't kept up too closely yet. It's August so we're in the first part of the season - runs from June-November.

NHC: Disturbance in Atlantic increases chances to 50 percent for tropical development

System has 60 percent chance of development over next 5 days

UPDATED 1:21 PM CDT Aug 20, 2014

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NEW ORLEANS —As many residents along the Gulf Coast know, late August is the height of the Atlantic hurricane season. This year is no different.

• Download the WDSU Hurricane Central app
  
  
  
  Click here to download the WDSU Hurricane Central App
  
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• 2014 hurricane names
  
  
  
  It's likely 2014 will be a near-normal or below-normal year for hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But even so, there are 21 hurricane names ready to go for the Atlantic hurricane season.
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WATCH: Morning Videocast (Tracking the Tropics)
The chances of development have climbed to 50 percent for one system while another system lost any chance of development. The area of low pressure has a 60 percent chance over the next five days.


The disturbance that has steadily climbed in chances, becoming better organized, and is producing showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.


"Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea," the National Hurricane Center said.


After that time, the NHC said land interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.


Another system, which has a 10 percent chance of development, is located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms


Regardless of tropical development, gusty winds packed with heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.


If necessary, the NHC said an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Thursday afternoon.


Download the WDSU Hurricane Central app for iPhone and Android devices to stay informed for the Atlantic Hurricane Season!

[American Patriot]

Nobody knows the .... hurricane season. lol

This one MIGHT become a hurricane, if it doesn't.

This one MIGHT stay as a disturbance, if it doesn't.

It MIGHT become a tropical storm... if it doesn't.

Someone's gonna get a mobile home blown over, I'm betting....

Tropical Threat For Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, U.S. East Coast Ahead?

Published: Aug 21, 2014, 11:51 AM EDT weather.com



70 Percent Chance: Storm Likely





A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean nearing the Lesser Antilles is still being closely monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Nearing the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, there are several possibilities that may portend an ominous future for this disturbance in the Caribbean and, possibly, parts of the U.S.
Here's what we know now -- and don't know -- about this potential tropical threat.
Where is the Disturbance Now?


Infrared Satellite

• INTERACTIVE SATELLITE LOOP

As shown in the infrared satellite image above, the general area of disturbed weather is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
Convection (translation: thunderstorms) started to become better organized Wednesday evening, but is now struggling again Thursday morning. This lack of persistent convection in one location has been unable to form a distinct surface low pressure circulation, so far.
The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled an investigation of this disturbance by the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon to determine whether a surface low pressure circulation -- which requires not only the east or northeast winds typically found in the Northern Hemisphere tropics, but also a westerly wind -- is present.
If both convection and a closed surface low exist, the NHC would initiate advisories on either Tropical Depression Four or Tropical Storm Cristobal, depending on the magnitude of winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
This is the first hurdle for this system to clear.
(MORE: Tropical Terms You Need to Know)
Caribbean Impact


Possible Development Area



Rain and gusty winds will spread through the Caribbean through the weekend, regardless of what the system is called.
The system should spread rain and gusty winds into the Lesser Antilles Thursday, and into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Thursday into Friday and Friday night.
It remains uncertain at this time whether the system will remain a disturbance, will have become a tropical depression or, at most, a tropical storm.
(FORECASTS: St. Thomas | St. Croix | San Juan)
This weekend the system should spread rain from east to west into Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, Jamaica, Cuba and possibly the Cayman Islands.
Local flash flooding is a possibility, particularly over mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
(FORECASTS: Punta Cana | Ocho Rios | Grand Cayman)
Again, it remains to be seen whether the system will be Cristobal, a depression or still a fledgling tropical disturbance, which will also, of course, factor into other potential impacts, including winds, coastal flooding and high surf. A track over more land would also limit development of the system in the Caribbean.
U.S. Threat?


Steering Ingredients

• MODEL POSSIBLE FORECAST TRACKS

To be clear, it is still too soon to determine if this system will have any impacts on the mainland U.S.
A crucial player in determining if the U.S. will be impacted appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean. There appear to be three scenarios at this time:
1) Avoiding the U.S.: If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, and the jet stream dip is sufficiently strong and penetrates far enough south, the system may turn sharply north, then northeast after leaving the Bahamas. In this scenario, the U.S. coast would be missed -- except for perhaps some high surf next week.
2) East Coast threat: If the system tracks north of Cuba and Hispanola, but either isn't pulled far enough north by the jet stream dip or the jet stream dip passes by into the north Atlantic, it may slowly crawl up a sizable swath of the Eastern seaboard, from Florida at least to North Carolina next week.
3) Gulf Coast threat: If the system remains relatively far south in the Caribbean Sea, it may not get tugged north by the jet stream dip, instead tracking into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly intensifying in a favorable atmosphere with warm water temperatures. In this scenario, the U.S. Gulf Coast may be threatened mid-late next week.
Forecast uncertainty is typically very high several days out even in cases of a well-defined tropical cyclone, which we don't have yet. Therefore, we cannot take any of those three scenarios completely off the table yet.
All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential threat.
(EXPERT ANALYSIS: The Weather Channel | Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground)
In the meantime, now is an excellent time to make sure you're hurricane ready.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Hurricane Strikes By County, Parish

1 / 6



Hurricane Strikes: U.S.




Hurricane strikes by county from 1900-2010 along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts.

[American Patriot]

Ok... MY prediction.

This thing builds to tropical storm proportions.

The High off the Atlantic coast becomes two separate areas of high pressure, pushing/pulling the low system northward and into the Atlantic. The Jet Stream will further press the low to move it outward away from land.

No hits on the East Coast with this one.

The Caribbean, in particular the Windwards, and eastern islands, up to and possibly including Puerto Rico's eastern side, Virgins and SE Bahamas will likely see a bunch of rain, some gale force winds (34-47 knot) mostly below about 35 knots with gusts up to the 47 mark.

Let's see if I get this one right.

[American Patriot]

[American Patriot]

Atlantic

Active Storms | Marine Forecasts 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook | 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

For a quick reference to many of the products listed below, you may download our trifold brochure. (También está disponible en español.)

[American Patriot]

I've seen this stuff scooting around the Internet from time to time. I didn't know the extent this guy was going to hoax weather reports!

Weather hoax page sharing false hurricane forecast, calls James Spann an idiot

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By Cassie Fambro | cfambro@al.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on August 20, 2014 at 3:18 PM, updated August 20, 2014 at 4:41 PM

GULF COAST BEACHES-- In the weather community, one name keeps popping up in relation to weather hoaxes. Kevin Martin, nicknamed "K-Mart" starts Facebook pages dedicated to weather, creates a terrifying forecast graphic and thousands of people share it, believing that it's real.



View full sizeA screenshot of the FALSE forecast posted by a weather impersonator. (Facebook)


When the false forecasts are caught, Facebook shuts the page down, and Martin tries to sue Facebook, according to Gawker's weather expert at The Vane.


This week, hoax page "Weather Alert Central" created a forecast that shows the Gulf Coast in a red cone of danger, predicting that a hurricane will hit somewhere between Texas and Florida.


The big problem? There's only a tropical wave right now.

The page shared a new forecast late Tuesday night that goes as far as to predict that a shows a Katrina-like impact. That false forecast has been shared more than 300 times.


Whoever is in charge of that page also created a Twitter account that they used to insult Alabama meteorologist James Spann who told his followers that the image is a scam.


"Please do not share this on Facebook," Spann wrote. "It is run by a scam artist and constantly provides false information."

@spann Spann you're an idiot. Don't think you are the only one that knows weather. You don't govern who can say what, hear me?
— WeatherAlertCentral (@WACweather) August 20, 2014

Gawker's Dennis Mersereau said that it's "ludicrous" to forecast so far in advance and many meteorologists agree.


After the image went viral, The National Weather Service and even The Weather Channel had to announce that the image is a hoax.


Mersereau also said that in the event of a legitimate hurricane warning, people like Spann and Greg Forbes are the people to trust.


Before sharing any forecast, he said that a good rule is to check out the source. "Check the source's Twitter bio or look for an 'about me' page on their site," he wrote.


Readers can also look to AL.com's Leigh Morgan for the latest on anything developing in the Gulf.

[American Patriot]

Weather 'disturbance' could be upgraded to hurricane and may land near New Orleans one day before ninth anniversary of Katrina tragedy, warns climatologist

By MailOnline Reporter
Published: 23:53 EST, 19 August 2014 | Updated: 03:42 EST, 20 August 2014



+5

Dr. Roy Spencer is a former NASA climatologist and keeps a storm-tracking blog


Could another dangerous storm be headed to New Orleans — and on the ninth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina?
One climatologist says it is possible.

Dr. Roy Spencer, formerly a senior chief climatologist at NASA, pointed out in his storm-tracking blog that a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could strike the area next week.
The current forecast, updated on Tuesday night by the National Hurricane Center, is that the disturbance will grow into a hurricane.
If it does, the storm could make landfall near New Orleans just one day before the ninth anniversary of the landing of Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 29.
But, Spencer warned, everything may change.

'Needless to say, it IS hurricane season, so a Gulf of Mexico hurricane in late August (near the peak in the season) is not that unusual,' the scientist wrote on Tuesday evening.


+5

Dr. Roy Spencer, a former senior climatologist at NASA, says this map shows there is a chance that a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could be upgraded to a hurricane and make landfall near New Orleans



'Of course, this far in advance, the hurricane (even if it forms) could make landfall anywhere along the Gulf coast,' he added.
'I just though the timing, exactly 9 years after Katrina, was interesting.'
Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana on August 29, 2005, followed by Hurricane Rita a month later on Sept. 24.


More...

• Flooded by Hurricane Katrina and left abandoned for ten years: Inside the decaying Six Flags theme park in New Orleans
• In New Orleans, a change in police command

Katrina was the costliest natural disaster in American history and killed more than 1,800 people across seven states.

It caused widespread damage to property and infrastructure and left a trail of death, injury, trauma and destruction in its wake.

+5

New Orleans residents come out of their homes to a flooded street after Hurricane Katrina hit the area with heavy wind and rain Aug. 29, 2005




+5

Devastation was widespread throughout New Orleans, with water approximately 12 feet high in some areas




+5

A damaged home is seen in New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina