Weather Thread

[American Patriot]

Hurricane Center Closely Watches Budding Atlantic Storm

By Brian K. Sullivan Aug 22, 2014 5:56 AM MT

A potential tropical system became a bit ragged with poor definition late yesterday as it neared the Leeward Islands at the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea.


A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found a small area of winds reaching 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour on the northeast edge of the low-pressure system, the National Hurricane Center said.


That wasn’t enough to make it a tropical storm. Wind speed is just one piece of what makes a storm a true tropical system. Others include a defined circulation and well-organized showers and thunderstorms, all of which are lacking here.


The system also has to pass over the mountains of the island of Hispaniola, which can reach 10,000 feet and may disrupt its development. Still, it’s too early to say the storm won’t become Cristobal, the next name on the Atlantic season’s list.


By early next week, the low will have moved into the waters around the Bahamas, where conditions will be more conducive to helping it grow. The hurricane center gives it a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next two days and a 80 percent chance by Aug. 26.


Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell are churning in the seas far from land, where they don’t pose a threat to anyone. They were joined today by Tropical Storm Marie, which is expected to grow into a major hurricane off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

[American Patriot]

Ok... MY prediction.

This thing builds to tropical storm proportions.

The High off the Atlantic coast becomes two separate areas of high pressure, pushing/pulling the low system northward and into the Atlantic. The Jet Stream will further press the low to move it outward away from land.

No hits on the East Coast with this one.

The Caribbean, in particular the Windwards, and eastern islands, up to and possibly including Puerto Rico's eastern side, Virgins and SE Bahamas will likely see a bunch of rain, some gale force winds (34-47 knot) mostly below about 35 knots with gusts up to the 47 mark.

Let's see if I get this one right.

That was my prediction yesterday. Without a computer model, with only what I know about reading weather charts (which isn't one of my strong suits...). Today, we have this:

Hurricane watch: Latest models show tropical system missing Florida

Posted by Kate Irby on August 21, 2014 Updated 16 hours ago





Forecasters have an apparent better understanding of a tropical disturbance system approaching the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean Sea.


At 4 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center reported that data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter indicated the the circulation associated with the small low pressure area is "poorly defined."


"The aircraft did, however, find a small area of tropical-storm-force winds on the northeast side of the low.


"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could still form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles," the Hurricane Center said.


The mountains of Hispaniola could limit development during the first part of the week, "but conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas," the Hurricane Center said.


Regardless of possible formation, gusty winds and heavy rain were expected to fall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday.


Some earlier models had the system heading towards Florida, but the latest map of "spaghetti models" at WUnderground.com projected the system heading to the northeast after passing north of Puerto Rico.


The Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system again Friday afternoon.


The chance of formation remains at 50 percent over the next 48 hours, and 70 percent over the next five days, according to the Hurricane Center.

[American Patriot]

On the bright yellow line, the lower most dot to the second dot to the left is about 300 nautical miles. The map projection is Mercator.

One degree = 60nm
Five degrees= 60X5= 300nm

[American Patriot]

Looks like it missed....

[Ryan Ruck]

Brutally Cold 2014-15 Winter Shaping Up For The United States

September 11, 2014

The 2013-14 winter was a season that I will never be able to forget simply because of the kind of cold Arctic outbreaks that occurred throughout that year. What’s even more remarkable is that the 2013-14 winter became known as that winter that simply would not end, and even this summer, we have seen times when the mid and upper level pattern strongly resembled what would be typical of a winter pattern. We had pretty severe Arctic outbreaks in both 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters but for entirely different reasons than last winter. The main driver of last winter was the warm pool of above average waters over the northeastern Pacific, and this warm pool is still there! It is to blame for a lot of the volatility that we have seen this year in our temperatures across the United States.

You hear a lot about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) particularly during the winter months as those indices are very important to monitor each winter and can be the difference between a cold winter in the central and eastern United States and a very warm winter. Last year, it didn’t matter whether we had a positive or negative NAO/AO, and for those of you that followed my forecasts last winter, you may remember me telling you to ignore all the forecasts being put out that were predicting a big warmup simply because the AO/NAO wasn’t negative. It’s rare that you would hear me say something like that, but the reason that it didn’t matter was because of the warm pool in the northeastern Pacific. It led to a more volatile pattern, and even the regions further south and southeast that didn’t necessarily lock into a cold pattern experienced below average temperatures for a good portion of the winter because of the frequent Arctic blasts.

The 2014-15 winter could also be strongly influenced by the warm pool in the northeast Pacific if it persists going into the winter months, and based on some of the things that I have been looking at, chances are good that it will. This would likely lead to another brutally cold winter in the central and eastern United States while the western U.S. would have above average temperatures, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The good news is that I think central and southern California will receive above average precipitation, and that is due to a developing weak El Nino that will not necessarily be the main driver of this winter but will have some influence. This also means more precipitation across the southern states including the Southwest through the Southern Plains to parts of the Southeast. The regions where the cold air will be in place will have an increased chance at seeing more wintry weather this season, even in locations that typically don’t get any snow/ice.


Jamstec model predicting above average sea surface temps in NE Pacific to persist through winter.

When there is a warm pool of above average sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, you get ridging to develop up over Alaska and the western U.S. and troughing over the central and eastern United States. This can persist throughout the entire winter (just like last winter) if this warm pool remains in this same place throughout the season. This is what is considered a negative EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) pattern and typically brings cold air over a large portion of the United States. Due to some other factors that I will explain in a future article, I have reason to believe that the cold air could be more focused in the eastern third of the nation this winter.

There are still a lot of unknowns about this winter, and I am going to monitor everything closely through September and October before I put out a final 2014-15 winter forecast in late October or early November. There have been a lot of bogus forecasts being put out on this upcoming winter, and you just have to ignore them. I strongly believe that this could be another brutally cold winter, and if anything changes my mind, you’ll be the first to know. Remember, there are sites that call for brutally cold winters EVERY SINGLE YEAR just to get high views, but as most of you know, if I think something is going to happen, I tell you WHY.

Here are two links for you to check out: this one here will take you to my region-by-region breakdown on this upcoming winter, and this one here will take you to my detailed winter forecast that gets more into the meteorology behind the forecast. Also, be sure to like Firsthand Weather on Facebook, where I will be putting out updates on this upcoming winter and other weather events.


Firsthand Weather’s Preliminary 2014-15 Winter Forecast

[American Patriot]

Japan is about to get beat into the surf.

The Most Powerful Storm on Earth This Year Is Heading for Japan

October 7, 2014 Qronos 16 Leave a comment Go to comments

UPDATE, Oct. 7, 3:40 p.m. ET: Super Typhoon Vongfong has intensified further, with maximum sustained winds of about 180 miles per hour and gusts higher than 200 miles per hour. This puts it among the strongest storms on record, based on a satellite estimate.
Super Typhoon Vongfong is now equivalent to a high-end Category 5 storm, and it is forecast to intensify further during the next six hours, until it has winds of about 195 miles per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. By some measures it is equivalent to, if not slightly stronger than, Super Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Philippines in 2013. Its perfectly symmetrical satellite appearance is the sort that weather geeks the world over use as their screensavers.
Super Typhoon Vongfong has reached meteorological perfection, and hence peak destructiveness, as it churns across the warm waters of the Western Pacific Ocean toward Japan.
The storm intensified overnight into the equivalent of a strong Category 4 hurricane on the cusp of Category 5 status, with maximum sustained winds of at least 155 miles per hour. Super Typhoon Vongfong is heading for Japan, which is still recovering from Typhoon Phanfone over the weekend.
A one-two punch of typhoons, coming in a season that has battered Japan with several other intense storms, could result in severe, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, depending on Super Typhoon Vongfong’s ultimate track and intensity as it approaches on Sunday and Monday. Due to cooler ocean temperatures and stronger upper atmospheric winds, it is highly unlikely that Vongfong will still be this powerful when it strikes Japan.

But based on satellite imagery, Vongfong has reached an intensity level that few storms on Earth ever achieve, and it may still be intensifying slightly. It is likely to reach high-end Category 5 intensity, with sustained winds of greater than 155 mph, on Tuesday.
Vongfong is also the most powerful storm on the planet this year, based on estimated minimum central air pressure (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm). By that metric, it could approach the intensity of Super Typhoon Haiyan, which decimated parts of the Philippines in 2013.

Computer model projections show that the storm, which is currently moving west over the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean, will make a sharp turn to the north and northwest late this week, while slowing down in forward speed. It will begin weakening as it moves closer to Japan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, but the forecast track takes it near or over mainland Japan, including major cities such as Tokyo.

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the storm’s track and intensity several days in advance, but computer models in the last few days have consistently been predicting either a very close call or a direct hit on Japan. In fact, the predicted path is extremely similar to Typhoon Phanfone, which brought 70 mph winds to Tokyo.

If the storm does strike Japan, the biggest threat it will pose will come in the form of water. Parts of Japan received up to two feet of rain from Typhoon Phanfone over the weekend, and two other typhoons that have hit this year also dumped copious amounts of rainfall. Given that Japan is a mountainous country, there could be a high danger of mudslides along mountain slopes.

[Malsua]

Nasty storm...be fun to be in a big ole concrete bunker, well off the ground to watch the devastation roll through.

The Atlantic Hurricane season has been a bust and you don't hear me complaining. For the past few years Sept/Oct have been either very heavy rains or freak snows.

[Ryan Ruck]

It will begin weakening as it moves closer to Japan, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, but the forecast track takes it near or over mainland Japan, including major cities such as Tokyo.

Oh, no, there goes Tokyo!

[Ryan Ruck]

Just got our first Winter Storm Warning of the season. Looks like we're expecting 3-5" of snow tonight!

[MinutemanCO]

Those are the 5" we just got. Say hi to it for me, along with the -10 degree temperatures.

[Ryan Ruck]

Hehe, I've been doing some reading and it looks like some models are saying we could get more than 5". NWS is likely playing it safe and taking the middle ground.

Those cold temps are right on the backside of this. The kerosene heaters are prepped and ready for duty! Thankfully it looks like the extreme cold will be pretty short lived.

[MinutemanCO]

Hehe, I've been doing some reading and it looks like some models are saying we could get more than 5". NWS is likely playing it safe and taking the middle ground.

Those cold temps are right on the backside of this. The kerosene heaters are prepped and ready for duty! Thankfully it looks like the extreme cold will be pretty short lived.

We ended up with about 3" followed by 5" over the next two days. Our frigid temps lasted about 5 days. Had to plug the truck in over night.

[Ryan Ruck]

Winter is definitely getting an early start this year!

[American Patriot]

Hate to tell you guys this, but it has been bitter cold here for DAYS already. LOL

It is supposed to get up to the 40s today though. It was 19 this morning. On Friday it was -6 when I came in to work. Yuk. I HATE it.

We got snow, but not anything significant.

[Malsua]

It was in the mid to high 20s here Fri/Sat/Sun....it might have peaked at 34 on Sunday. It was 39 and raining this morning...I would have preferred the snow.

[American Patriot]

While I don't like snow any more I would prefer it over the cold now.

I've broken my right ankle 3 times over the years and it isn't liking the cold whatsoever. This weekend I had to use one of my canes to keep from turning it again, it was aching so bad!

At least I can wear boots in the snow lol

[Ryan Ruck]

Looks like we ended up with about 5". It's still coming down but should be tapering off soon.

[Malsua]

Looks like we ended up with about 5". It's still coming down but should be tapering off soon.

That's a lot for Southern Ohio, particularly during this time of year.

[Ryan Ruck]

You're right. Last storm I remember that dumped this much this early was '94 or '95, I think, where we got about 6" of snow on Halloween. I'd have to look to be sure.

This was a wet, heavy snow. A lot of weak tree branches down on my street. Had to stop and clear a couple of the larger ones.

[Ryan Ruck]

Looks like you're in for a bit of a snow Mal. Enjoy!

We got less than an inch Friday-Saturday. Other than that, no measureable snow since the pre-Thanksgiving storm we got.

What a bust coming off of one of the snowiest Winters on record last year. Not quite as bad as 2012-2013 where we literally got nothing but close. Technically, I guess since the last snow we got was pre-Thanksgiving and thus before Winter, we are tied with abysmal snowfall amounts from 2012-2013.

Honestly, some parts of Texas have seen more snow than me this Winter! This sucks...