Weather Thread

[Ryan Ruck]

It wasn't that it shifted, it was that the storm low didn't fully form until it was off of Long Island instead of DelMarVa.

Ah, gotcha. To be honest, once it's out of the Plains/Ohio Valley region I don't pay as close attention.

I'd have to look to see if any of the short range models accurately predicted anything close to the outcome.

[Malsua]

Ah, gotcha. To be honest, once it's out of the Plains/Ohio Valley region I don't pay as close attention.

I'd have to look to see if any of the short range models accurately predicted anything close to the outcome.

They did.. RAPP and one other had it.

[American Patriot]

Sounded like it got stronger moving north though. I heard something out of the corner of my ear about some massive "tidal wave" of water and snow or something. I didn't catch the details but I thought it was up MA way?

[Malsua]

The issue was largely that during the time it took to organize, it was moving to the North/NorthEast. Once the low fully formed it strengthened and started flinging snow to the NW of the low, but this wasn't until it was nearly to Long Island. Had it formed earlier, it would have started pulling snow into Philly and then painted a huge swatch up through NYC. What happened was the disorganized mess didn't "capture" the low until it was already past where it would have driving snow into NJ/NYC. Eastern Long Island and points north got clobbered.

[American Patriot]

Makes sense. I was kind of worried that the high that moved through here would catch up to the low and some stuff would happen. lol

We have another cold front coming through, Friday I think, but this morning the winds were rather high (40mph I think) coming to work. Not sure what it's doing out there right now.

[Phil Fiord]

Meanwhile in DC/NoVA, we had about an inch on top of rain that froze making ice. Normal pattern here, ice then snow to make it look inviting but treacherous.

[Ryan Ruck]

Ice... No fun unless you've got a generator.

[Ryan Ruck]

Finally, some possible snow action with a decent chance of actually happening for me!

Forecasting 3-6 inches Saturday night through Sunday night.

Fingers crossed it edges a little further south and we have some slightly colder air sooner. Could end up with more!

[Malsua]

Finally, some possible snow action with a decent chance of actually happening for me!

Forecasting 3-6 inches Saturday night through Sunday night.

Fingers crossed it edges a little further south and we have some slightly colder air sooner. Could end up with more!

You live about 100 miles too far south. Northern Ohio gets plenty of snow dumps.

[Ryan Ruck]

Tell me about it.



I can't resist posting one model. GFS snowfall through mid February. I'll take it!

[American Patriot]

Supposed to get some rain and/or snow here starting tonight and tomorrow.

[Ryan Ruck]

Helpful link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php

Just pick the site closest to you and select the parameter.

[Ryan Ruck]

Big move north on the models for my area.

I just need an about 20 to (ideally) 50 mile south shift. Supposedly some northern energy has not been sampled while southern has, resulting in a possible northern bias.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see...

[Malsua]

This current storm looks like it's going to dump on me. This means I won't be getting any snow. It looks too far north for you Ryan, so it's going to be 100 miles south of you as rain.

[Ryan Ruck]

I'm down in the <1".

Probably the biggest disappointment this Winter with what really looked like a solid lock.

[Ryan Ruck]

With Winter winding down, my chances for snow are shrinking but, I am keeping a watchful eye on Monday/Tuesday next week...





Maybe I'll end up with a 4 day weekend!

[Malsua]

Haha!!!!! You're in the Bullseye! You're not getting SHIT!

Here's an example.



See that white swath from SE PA up through western Jersey into NY?

That's 22 or so inches.

Notice the date? That was Yesterday.

Want to know how much snow I've got out of this storm? Wait for it....wait for it...now keep on waiting, just like I am because I didn't get a flake.

The models have been colossally wrong this year. They are only able to tell if a piece of energy is moving from the West to the East and get it pinned down to a range of plus or minus 1000 miles.

If you are in the bullseye now, you are NOT getting any snow. Bank on it.

for what it's worth, he's this morning's GFS.

[American Patriot]

Methinks Mal is too happy over this. hehehe

[Malsua]

Methinks Mal is too happy over this. hehehe

You have no idea. Every fucking storm has skirted me! We have 18 inches on the ground(slowly earned in 1-3 inch clippers) but it's been frustrating to miss 1-2 feet by 200 miles when 24+ hours earlier we were bullseye. Something like the last 4 big storms just kept going north and north and north.

The last storm to hit Boston with 2 feet was originally projected to go out to sea somewhere around DC and wound up having Albany directly in the center.

That's a miss of what 300 miles? 300 miles? They can't forcast a storm for 300 miles? Geezus, can you imagine if you ordered a pizza and it wound up in Houston? It's about the same.

Not only wrong, but comically wrong.

[Ryan Ruck]

LMFAO! I know but this is probably my last thread of hope and I'm going to hold on to it with a death grip.

My saving grace is that model runs have been pretty consistent in matching up with the general theme of that first picture.