Weather Thread

[Ryan Ruck]

In watching the models run for the last couple days, I've seen this storm do everything from basically evaporate to make a run through the deep south (think MS, AL, GA!).

Now, looking at the SREF for CVG, things are once again looking interesting for me (some truth to that AFD I posted earlier?):



LOL! Love that one showing 22.5"! That is a nice healthy mean at 6" though more would always be better.

[Malsua]

In watching the models run for the last couple days, I've seen this storm do everything from basically evaporate to make a run through the deep south (think MS, AL, GA!).

Now, looking at the SREF for CVG, things are once again looking interesting for me (some truth to that AFD I posted earlier?):



LOL! Love that one showing 22.5"! That is a nice healthy mean at 6" though more would always be better.

The models for the storm that went over last night, were off by 200 miles. The coastal low went out to sea. Comically wrong. As far as I can tell, these things really are doing nothing else than suggesting an energy pulse is headed from west to east. They can't get the track right 6 HOURS OUT! It's not like this thing is hiding in the atmosphere. They're simply not credible any longer. Not a bit.

As for the latest run, let me put on my Alex Trebek Voice. OOhh, Sorry, Sorry.

[Ryan Ruck]

The models for the storm that went over last night, were off by 200 miles. The coastal low went out to sea. Comically wrong. As far as I can tell, these things really are doing nothing else than suggesting an energy pulse is headed from west to east. They can't get the track right 6 HOURS OUT! It's not like this thing is hiding in the atmosphere. They're simply not credible any longer. Not a bit.

LOL! This seems to be very true. I really wonder why this is and why this season is different than others...

As for the latest SREF, Mean is now showing about 9.5" and we've been put under a Winter Storm Watch for "Accumulations greater than 4". LOL! Real specific, I know!

Here's last night's Euro run:



That 11.5 is literally right over my house. Fingers crossed for that or either a slight continued jog north!

And here's the NAM:



That gives me right about the Mean the SREF is showing.

GEM shows 5-6":



Obviously I'm cheering for Team Euro.

[Ryan Ruck]

[Ryan Ruck]

One thing seems for sure, it is going to be COLD this upcoming week. Negative lows Wednesday and Thursday nights. So the snow that's going to fall is going to stick around for a while.

We're currently sitting at 14 degrees with a high of 19.

Guess I'll be burning through a bit of kerosene in the near term.

Nice of Winter to finally show up half way through February.

[Ryan Ruck]

Mal, 12z GFS just came out:



Looks a little further north than the 0z you posted earlier. This has me right around 6-7".

And it appears to be lower totals for you. Sorry.

[Ryan Ruck]

AFD from ILN:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...MOVED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. THIS WAS OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA BASED ON AMALGAM OF
15.06Z AND NEW 15.12Z DATA AVAILABLE. MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ADD
ANOTHER TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO WARNING /INCLUDING CVG METRO/
BASED ON THE LATEST SREF AND HI RES DETERMINISTIC RUNS WHICH ARE
BEING EVALUATED AS WE SPEAK. PLENTY THINGS FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCLUDING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL SLR /SNOW LIQUID WATER RATIOS/ WHICH APPEAR WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 15:1 TO 23:1 DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE USED. CLIMO
IS 12:1. THIS IS A MANIFESTATION OF THE COLD TEMPS WE ARE
EXPERIENCING AND DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /REFERENCE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT CVG/ILN ON MONDAY/ AND SREF PROBS OF DENDRITIC GROWTH
> 100 MB. ALSO IMPRESSIVE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF MID LVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SETS UP ACROSS NRN KY. WARM-SIDE VERTICAL
MOTION RESPONSE TO THIS FGEN SIGNAL MEANS BANDING MAY INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF NRN KY WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO WARNING AND MAY ALLOW
SOME HEFTY TOTALS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE NICE
OVERLAP OF DENDRITIC GROWTH THE FGEN RESPONSE. WHILE APPROACHING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER /STRUGGLES TO CLOSE OFF AT 850MB AND
REMAINS OPEN AT 700MB...APPEARS THERMODYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE IMPRESSIVE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 150KT JET OVER MID
ATLANTIC WHICH STRETCHES BACK INTO OHIO/IND AND PLACES FAVORABLE
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER KY/FAR SRN OH. MORE TO COME ON THIS
DEVELOPING WINTER STORM...

[Malsua]

Nice...that storm has zero for me. ho hum. Oh, wait a sec. THAT MEANS I'M IN THE JACKPOT ZONE!!!! 24 INCHES HERE WE GO!

[Ryan Ruck]

We're officially under a Winter Storm Warning right now.

Pros are calling for 4-6". I've got a gut feeling we could end up with more.

[Ryan Ruck]

SREF just updated and the Mean nudged up to just over 10" and that's, from what I understand, assuming 20:1 ratios.

[Ryan Ruck]

Also, ILN has just expanded the Warning area further NW and updated totals to 4-7".

[Ryan Ruck]

18z NAM showing approximately 10-12" for me.

[Ryan Ruck]

Just heard on NOAA radio there is currently a 40% chance of snow Friday-Saturday. No amounts specified. That will end up on top of what we're going to be getting with this.

They were saying rain/snow on Saturday with highs at 40 but I don't see how it's going to get that warm with it being as balls cold as it will this entire week with a big snow pack on the ground.

[Ryan Ruck]

Latest from ILN. My house is literally, no exaggeration, on the 6-8"/8-10" line.

[Malsua]

At least you'll get something more than a 2 inch nuisance snow which has been my story for all but 2 storms.

[Ryan Ruck]

Yeah, no kidding. This will, no joke, be the first meaningful snow this Winter. We got about an inch or so a couple weeks ago and aside from a dusting or two, that's been it since the 5" before Thanksgiving (not Winter!).

Latest from ILN:

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS. DUE TO THIS THERE
WILL BE HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS DECREASING FURTHER TO
THE NORTH. AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. IN BETWEEN THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL
VALUES. A SHARP CUT OFF IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AND A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL VALUES IS EXPECTED.

WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA
EASTWARD TO HOCKING COUNTY OHIO. THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 4 INCH
WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA. DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD TREND
DECIDED TO HAVE A ROW OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THIS IN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. MORE CONFIDENT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FROM FAYETTE COUNTY OHIO TO FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO WHERE WINTER
WEATHER CRITERIA IS 2 INCHES. THERE IS LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ADVISORY FROM FAYETTE COUNTY INDIANA EASTWARD TO GREENE COUNTY
OHIO WHERE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 3 INCHES. AS MENTIONED HOWEVER
WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AND VALUES NEAR CRITERIA DECIDED TO GO
WITH AN ADVISORY ACROSS THESE COUNTIES.

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
LULL BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE AREA AND COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
WIND CHILL VALUES LOWER THAN NEGATIVE TEN AND THEREFORE FUTURE
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES.

[Ryan Ruck]

2/16 0z NAM. That 12+ finger is just reaching out to me!

[Ryan Ruck]

2/16 0z GFS

[Malsua]

Snowing yet?

[Ryan Ruck]

Yep, just transitioned from somewhat fine flakes to medium sized. We've got around an inch right now.

KY is really getting hammered though.

SREF Mean got cut by an inch last night.