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Thread: Weather Thread

  1. #481
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    That's actually hot ash from Yellowstone. It blew up two hours ago.
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    Default Re: Weather Thread




  3. #483
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Storm moved in yesterday.

    I left here about 2:15.

    When I got about 10 miles from here, the sky opened up and hail started falling, small, pea sized probably.

    I ended up going to pick up my granddaughter from school (by the way, that's the last time I will rescue her, she is the most uncommunicative person I've ever spoken to, I won't go into that here though). By the time I got home there was something close to 9" of hail from pea-sized to 3/4" hail covered the ground. Cars were stuck, high centered, and off the road and in ditches. I had to pull over several times to remove the hail from the window and front of the hood to allow the wipers to work.

    They closed I-25 through town to the north.

    It was NOT good yesterday. But pretty damned hilarious looking at the idiots with the Prisus cars not going anywhere. lol
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  4. #484
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    WOW! 9" of hail?!?! That's unreal! Most I've ever seen is just a slight covering.

    At least it wasn't softball sized hail like they've been getting in the TX/OK/KS area.

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    No, was small stuff in a slow moving storm. The average was about 6-7" in most places. I measured 9" where I'm staying.

    There was a MASSIVE amount of rain too, as much as 2.25 inches of rain fell. East of me (about 20 miles maybe) there was an area of over 3".
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Picture of the tornado that touched down just south of where I was staying this weekend. I didn't see it, but I saw the clearing come through a few minutes after. I think this shot was taken towards the SW (looking at the picture it appears to be aimed SW anyway). The other shots look like the same tornado from different locations. At least one of them is looking to the NW - the one with the road pictured in it. Not sure which road it is, but if it's Highway 94 it's probably closer to me than I thought it was.

    I know the wind picked up hard at one point after we went to shelter - but I checked the skies a few minutes later and saw nothing at all.

    The hail we got was all small, pea to nickel sizes. Nothing as big as what is pictured.


    Severe storms on the plains, snow in the foothills

    Chris Loveless, Digital Content Director , c.loveless@krdo.com

    POSTED: 01:44 PM MDT May 09, 2015 UPDATED: 11:59 PM MDT May 09, 2015




    COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. - A tornado touched down in eastern El Paso County Saturday as heavy snow fell in Teller County and along the Palmer Divide.
    Viewers sent pictures of the funnel shortly after it touched down south of Ellicott. No damage has been reported.
    Additional tornadoes were reported in eastern Colorado Saturday, including one near Eads in Kiowa County.
    A tornado watch was issued for the southeastern plains, including Colorado Springs and Pueblo, until 9 p.m.
    A flash flood warning that was issued for the Waldo Canyon burn scar has expired. Highway 24 is now *OPEN*.
    A flash flood watch was also in effect until midnight.
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    They were just showing a very small town in South Dakota that got absolutely hammered.

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Just dodged not one, but two bullets!



    My place is around the red X.

    Nothing like being an hour away and having to watch on TV to see if your house is about to get destroyed, dogs and all.

    Brother reported everything is intact. Just a couple of trees on the street down.

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Holy crap, I'm starting to feel like Neo I'm dodging so many bullets!

    Was sitting on the couch, had just opened a new beer to kick back while my recently smoked beef brisket "rested" when I got a text from my brother that there was a tornado warning!

    I had zero warning at all. My weather radio did not go off. I did not get any weather alert texts. I couldn't hear the siren because my A/C was running. Didn't see anything on TV because I was re-watching Battlestar Galactica. I still don't know why I got no warning at all.

    I was checking radar every so often because I could see a new line of storms spooling up and all our recent storms had been real light shows but, I had no idea there was rotation on the storm near me.

    Pulled up RadarScope and saw some decent rotation on the velocity map. Thankfully RadarScope plots the likely storm course and I could see it was going to just skim me.

    Given that I, of course, went right outside to see if I could see anything!

    Could clearly see the rotation but there was nothing on the ground. I can honestly say this is the first potential tornadic storm I've seen that wouldn't have had a rain wrapped tornado.

    Got some video... In high def, 1080p no less.



    If it had been headed my way and there were anything on the ground, I would have had a couple minutes warning, if that.

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Glad you're okay. Crazy weather.

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    And I rest my case. This hurricane tracking nonsense was a set up from the getgo.
    The New York slimes is even making excuses for the NHC now.
    /quote
    Friday, the official forecast now takes Joaquin out to sea. A direct hit on the East Coast can’t yet be ruled out, but the top models doubt it.
    If this forecast holds, Hurricane Joaquin will yield one clear winner: the model from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — or simply, the European model — which consistently forecast that Joaquin would head off to sea.
    Continue reading the main story
    Related Coverage
    Hurricane Joaquin Expected to Stay at Sea, Sparing East CoastOCT. 2, 2015
    It’s not the first time that the European model has led the pack. It’s almost a repeat of what happened with Hurricane Sandy, but in reverse. Three years ago, the European model anticipated, far in advance, Sandy’s unusual “left hook” into New Jersey. This time, the other models called for a left turn, and the European model dissented. /unquote
    And AGAIN I was right that this was used to cause panic, because after Sandy they got a shit pot of money to "upgrade". Right:
    /quote
    By early 2013, the European model had nearly 10 times the raw computing capacity of the Global Forecast System, or G.F.S., which is run by the National Weather Service. There were other problems, too, and the cumulative effect was obvious and irrefutable: The G.F.S. was doing worse than it rivals, and it played out in high-profile cases, like Sandy.
    After Hurricane Sandy, Congress gave the National Weather Service the money for more powerful computers. In January 2015, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it had increased computing capacity and begun running an upgraded model with higher resolution — a more detailed prediction.
    /unquote
    Absolute NONSENSE for government agencies to get money and turn into money hogs for more.







    Hurricane Joaquin Forecast: Why U.S. Weather Model Has Fallen Behind
    With the storm projected to move out to sea, it’s another triumph for European modeling.
    nytimes.com|By Nate Cohn
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  13. #492
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Joaquin tracks farther from East Coast, now Category 3

    Powerful storm batters Bahamas

    UPDATED 5:16 PM EDT Oct 02, 2015












    NEXT STORY
    Hurricane Joaquin strengthening; East Coast on alert










    BOSTON —Hurricane Joaquin destroyed houses, uprooted trees and unleashed heavy flooding as it hurled torrents of rain across the Bahamas on Friday as it weakened to a Category 3, but forecasters shifted its likely path farther away from the U.S. East Coast.
    Storm Team 5 meteorologist Cindy Fitzgibbon said it appears now that Joaquin is going to track well offshore, and a direct hit along the East Coast is not expected.
    "We've had a major shift in our computer models. The bulk of the computer models, which were a couple days ago, bringing this into the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. A lot of them now, the majority of them, the more reliable ones shifting them offshore, and the national hurricane center is thinking the same thing," Fitzgibbon said.

    Above graphic: Spaghetti plots
    Hurricane Tracker: Latest track projections, advisories
    Fitzgibbon said all of the most reliable computer models keep the storm south and east of Massachusetts.
    "Over the weekend, it continues to move north and east, staying offshore. By the time it comes close to our coastline Monday night, looks like it's going to be a good distance offshore," Fitzgibbon said.

    Above graphic: Official Hurricane Center prediction
    Latest hurricane forecast | Costliest, deadliest storms
    Joaquin had maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. By late afternoon, the storm was centered about 15 miles (25 kilometers) west-southwest of San Salvador, Bahamas and was moving north near 7 mph (11 kph). Hurricane force winds extended outward up to 50 miles (85 kilometers) and a hurricane watch was in effect for Bimini and Andros Island.

    Above Graphic: Joaquin position by time
    Gov. Charlie Baker said Thursday that state emergency management officials have been in contact with the National Weather Service and local officials and are doing as much preparation as they can without knowing where the storm is headed.
    The National Hurricane Center in Miami said a turn toward the north is expected Friday, and a faster motion toward the north or north northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday.
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    This has been bugging the shit out of me for the past few days.

    When that hurricane was still a tropical depression I was saying that it wasn't going to go to the states, but his Bahamas. No one believed me. I've been tracking this shit for 8 years now on my own, trying to learn what I could. I'm not perfect, I'm certainly not 100% right, but I've been right more than wrong.

    I brought this up that there is something wrong with the models, or there is a direct cause and effect on the economy based on the government data released to the public. Remember that ALL of the weather satellites belong to the government. All of the weather forecasting belongs to the government ( and the media gets ALL their shit from the government). Remember that all the weather stations, doppler radar and people that fix it, run it, read it and pass it all along WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT.

    Why the fuck is it that when a hurricane develops suddenly the only model projecting the FACTS are the EURO model?

    Why is they have been predicting this shit would hit ALL ALONG THE US COAST?

    When Sandy hit, the NWS and the NHC received massive amounts of funding to update and upgrade their computer systems. The fcking New York TIMES is making excuses for them even.

    Absolute BULLSHIT.

    What a way to generate a bunch of panic and get more money than to scare the piss out of 60 million people along the coast, to keep them in an uproar, rope and tie them back into digging out more more money out of their asses to give to the government cuz they "skeered". Fucking damned monkeys and bullshit artists.

    I've never seen anything so fucking ignorant as 50% of the US population so God Damned gullible they believe whatever the fuck they are told to believe.

    Same shit with Obama's lying black ass. You guys know I am NOT a racist, you know I could care less what color that motherfucker is, but he is lying through his teeth and his fucking COLOR is to blame. Maybe not his BLACK color, but his muslim color, the part trying to convince the US population we need to collect and destroy guns.

    This whole weather thing is fucking related.

    Am I pissed? You fucking bet your asses I'm pissed. I could have been all the way to Florida if I'd 1) Followed my gut feelings and 2) the US Government wasn't playing bullshit games with everyone's minds over a fucking hurricane named after some black assed non-spanish jerk off. (Cuz you know that black use names like that).

    Obama is a lying piece of shit. I can't wait until that asswipe is out of office.
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    And I'm betting money that this US flagged ship is fated because of the US Government giving bad information.

    http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/...icane-joaquin/

    31 Americans among the crew on cargo ship missing in Hurricane Joaquin

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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    5 Mistakes To Avoid As You Monitor Hurricane Joaquin (Updated)


    Marshall Shepherd ,
    Contributor

    I write about weather and climate related topics (and study them too)
    Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.




    Hurricane Joaquin is the Atlantic hurricane season’s 3rd hurricane and 10th named storm of the year. At the time of writing, Joaquin is a Major Hurricane (category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). Initially, there appeared to be a real threat that parts of the U.S. would see a landfall of the storm. This brings a host of speculation, innuendo, and “social media-rologist” opinions about the storm. Ironically, many of us have been warning about the real story (rain) all along. Joaquin is proving to be an incredible moisture source for rainfall in the South and East (Note the plume or ribbon of moisture coming off the storm into the Carolinas). Motivated by this reality, I remind everyone of 5 mistakes to avoid (and that I saw) as we consume meteorological and preparation information about Joaquin.


    1. Don’t Forget the Bahamas. The people of the Bahamas are currently feeling the brunt of a rather sluggish Category 4 hurricane (as of 5 pm October 1st). It is important to remember, as with Hurricane Sandy, that many people in the Caribbean region take the first brunt of these storms.


    2. Don’t Get 1-Model Tunnel Vision. As a meteorologist and former President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), I am thrilled there is so much enthusiasm for a subject that I have been passionate about since 6th grade. However, this comes with a problem. There is a host of
    misinformation that gets posted by what we referred to as “social media-rologists” on a past episode of Weather Channel’s WxGeeks. One of the biggest violations is people posting 1 model’s projected forecast. This is dangerous and irresponsible without proper context. Meteorologists use a hosts of weather models that may have different assumptions, physics, and initial conditions. By now, you have likely seen typical Spaghetti Plots showing various model projections.


    Earlier in the week, some social “media-rologists” were selectively posting only the HWRF model’s track forecast. Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell analytics tweeted:
    Seriously considering turning off HWRF for underage users
    Resist the urge to retweet (RT) or share information if you are unsure of the source or cannot verify that other credible or trusted sources are distributing similar information. With flooding threats, we often say “Turn around, don’t drown.” In social media, I am saying “Be aware, before you share.”


    In fact, the models as of 5 am eastern (Oct. 2) are mainly showing an offshore solution, but I have cautioned for days not to focus on the hurricane at the expense of the real story this weekend. Rain.












    3. The Rain, Don’t Forget the Rain. Irrespective of where Joaquin goes, parts of the South and East Coast of the United States from the Carolinas to the Northeast will see a significant and dangerous rainfall event in one of the most urbanized regions of the country. Large rainfall totals on already saturated soils and urban impervious surfaces is a recipe for flooding. The 3-day rainfall totals projected by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center are incredible, particularly for the Carolinas.


    This rainfall threat was inevitable even without Joaquin because of a convergence of ample tropical moisture and the large scale weather pattern. A scholarly study in the American Meteorological Society’s journal Monthly Weather Review defines a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) as:
    meso-and subsynoptic-scale regions of high-impact heavy rainfall that occur well in advance of a recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) over the eastern third of the United States.
    Tropical moisture (Precipitable Water) plume streaming off of Joaquin. RAP 12h Forecast. Courtesy of Brian Mcnoldy via Facebook.



    Continued from page 1
    The rainfall totals and flood threat projected would be “the” story alone if there wasn’t a major hurricane in the picture too. Joaquin may simply amplify the threat. And remember, a study by the National Hurricane Center has noted that inland freshwater flooding is often the most dangerous aspect of a hurricane. I should also caution that even though comparisons to Sandy are being uttered, these storms are different in many ways.


    4. Don’t Dread Preparation. Preparation is key. Dr. Gina Eosco, a weather communication expert with Eastern Research Group, Inc., posted outstanding guidance (see figure) on preparation and there is also great information at Ready.gov. It is important to establish a culture in this country that says that it is fine to prepare even if nothing happens. After weather events, it is common to hear complaints about preparation for nothing, and this makes meteorologists and emergency managers very aware of the “cry wolf” syndrome. However, I come from the school of thought that says “better safe than sorry.”


    Preparation advice from Dr. Gina Eosco, Weather Communication expert.



    5. Don’t Stop Watching. The National Hurricane Center notes:
    Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
    away, it’s too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
    impacts from Joaquin in the United States.
    This means you should continue to monitor the forecast rather than looking at what it is today and drawing conclusion 3 days from now. This is important in any weather situation. Forecasts are dynamic not static. I wrote this advice initially and this has proven to be the case with Joaquin as the models have come into consensus with what the European model as hinting all along: Out to sea. Now the debate and science investigations will start about why European picked up on this before GFS. I am sure I will write about this debate.

    Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Dir., Atmospheric Sciences Program/GA Athletic Assoc. Distinguished Professor (Univ of Georgia), Host, Weather Channel's Sunday Talk Show, Weather (Wx) Geeks, 2013 AMS President



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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Libertatem Prius!


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  18. #497
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    And here come the gust of 34mph as promised.

    Boat is swinging to and fro (as are the others on moorings) but is pretty whacky. JoAnne is kind of scared. It's cold too, in the 50s and she HATES it. She's cold with clothes, blankets, socks, hat and her robe over the top of everything. I'm wearing scrubs and a hoodie. lol.

    I'm ok, and I went outside to bail out the dinghy for 45 minutes earlier. Sigh.

    I keep saying it will get better. I'm sure it will. I know it will.

    Soon as the rain lets up a bit we're headed into Annapolis for groceries at the commissary, back here, pay our bill and beat feet the fuck out of here. At least I have two cases of beer, 10 bottles of wine, 2-3 bottles of rum and various other things to drink. lol
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    You realize that if Joaquin had been moving 1 mph faster, it would have phased with the trough and done exactly what the "fear mongering" models showed.

    It lingered just slightly too long and missed the bus that would have dragged it up the coast and right up the Chesapeake Gullet.

    The Euro got it right. It also got Sandy Right.

    Last winter, the Euro was predicting insane snow falls for NYC and the surrounding area. The GFS disagreed.

    State of Emergency, mandatory overtime for plow guys...we got maybe 2 inches.

    That said, Eastern Long Island got almost 4 feet. The storm tracked 80 miles further east than predicted. That one also missed the bus.

    Here's what I've learned following these things. Mixed flow storms, I.E. Northern stream and southern stream coming together completely fuck up all the models, except that the
    Euro seems to handle southerly flow storms better. Like in this case and in Sandy.

    When you mix in the northern jet stream flow, the Euro goes into La-La land, predicting the Apocalypse.

    This storm WAS NOT hype. There was about a 10 hour period whereby a slight increase in westward speed, and the storm had the power to do it, it would have phased with the trough.
    Instead the blocking pressure exerted enough to slow the storm down and let the trough escape. These are vast systems over hundreds and thousands of miles. There simply is no sampling of these storms and systems that gives a complete picture.
    They have surface buoys, balloons and planes that fly through but it can miss vast areas that are simply guessed at.

    In this case, the Euro has better assumptions and consequently figured out the the blocking pressure would delay the storm long enough. It could have easily been just as wrong.
    Last edited by Malsua; October 3rd, 2015 at 01:05.
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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    What the hell?

    The Texas Panhandle is set to get a blizzard with +15" of snow with snowfall extending 100 miles into Mexico while I'm stuck with weather more fitting for early Spring, getting dumped on with rain.

    This is how my front yard looks:



    The ground is thoroughly saturated with standing water everywhere. It looks like every day through Wednesday is going to be rain and above normal temps except Tuesday when it will just be dreary and cloudy.




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    Default Re: Weather Thread

    Looks like we're going to end up with 3" or so of rain when all is said and done, on top of already saturated ground. Not as much as folks to the west though.

    Shame all that water isn't going to be frozen. Could be 2-3 feet.

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