Weather Thread

[Ryan Ruck]

We're finally getting a break from the heat and humidity!

Today was the first time in a long time I was able to open up my house and was absolutely perfect for a drive with the doors and top off my truck.

There's even a great breeze going that I'm enjoying while I try my new beer!

Doesn't look like it's going to last though. Going to get into the 90s again next week.

[American Patriot]

Yeah, that's cool. We had a couple of nice days without the stifling heat. But, now we've got wind and rain headed this way. I'm over in Richmond VA at the moment. But later today it looks like clouds will move in and rain over night. Hermine is moving NE and will move out to sea (I hope) before it gets over where my ship is located.

Not sure though. It's weakening now, and heading across GA. 60mph winds right now, but it's coming apart. It will head over the Carolinas... and with LUCK with head out around Hatteras.... if that happens, it will just be rainy for a day or so over the boat. IF the High Pressure up north beats it out, it can push that storm BACK WARD and into the coast, causing a nasty Nor'easter to blast the Chesapeake Bay. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck.

[Malsua]

Yeah, that's cool. We had a couple of nice days without the stifling heat. But, now we've got wind and rain headed this way. I'm over in Richmond VA at the moment. But later today it looks like clouds will move in and rain over night. Hermine is moving NE and will move out to sea (I hope) before it gets over where my ship is located.

Not sure though. It's weakening now, and heading across GA. 60mph winds right now, but it's coming apart. It will head over the Carolinas... and with LUCK with head out around Hatteras.... if that happens, it will just be rainy for a day or so over the boat. IF the High Pressure up north beats it out, it can push that storm BACK WARD and into the coast, causing a nasty Nor'easter to blast the Chesapeake Bay. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck.

It looks to pass to your south, but it's going to still have a lot of GOM moisture in the water pipeline so your scuppers will get a good workout. There will also be a decent storm surge, pretty much everywhere along the path.

[American Patriot]

Surge is seriously all I'm worried about at the moment. We're sitting in a basin surrounded mostly on all sides by trees. The docks are floating docks and can ride up about 5 feet, so I don't think it will be THAT high no matter what, even with winds blowing into the marina from the water it won't get that high.

The rain... boat is protected from too much water getting int he cockpit (where I DO have a couple of leaks). So that's good. So the winds won't mess with the canvas, the rise won't be TOO bad, but the docks are not as sturdy as one might expect. They COULD cut loose. If they did that, it would be a bit messy

[Ryan Ruck]

This is moving through now.



Talk about a well defined front!

[American Patriot]

Been watching Hurricane Matthew carefully the last few days.

It has been meandering all over the South Caribbean Sea and has now taken a right turn to the north.

Yesterday I predicted it would pass over Gitmo, or to the right of the bay. So far, it is proving to be doing precisely what I said.

There is a set of cold fronts and lows moving off the US Coast as I write this, and they along with the interaction from an Atlantic High to the East of the US SHOULD channel this thing offshore somewhat.

NHC is still showing an impact in South Carolina, but almost all the models are lining up and the average course should take it Easterly and away from the coast line. We will have some rip tides and big waves off the US coast in the next few days. By Friday of this week, I will know whether I can throw off the dock lines and head south.

In the mean time, I'm getting ready to take down all sail and everything off my deck including the bimini, solar panels and anything that can't be tied down or offers too much windage.

We're in a low lying area with a big pond inside here. The trees surround us and should block a significant part of the wind unless it's coming from the East across the Potomac. The docks I'm on are floating and have 8' above tide line tops. If we got a 9' surge, we'd float free of the area. Docks and all. No one thinks it will happen (I always plan for the worst).

My take on the storm.

It will hit Haiti on the western arm, and pass east of Jamaica. It will cross about 75 miles east of Gitmo Bay (the eye) at most, and will hit the southern end of the Bahamas and begin a slow slipping turn to the right as it goes north. It will be at MOST a Cat 2 when it gets to Bahamas and SHOULD (I hope) drop off even more to maybe a Cat 1. It will go through much of the Bahamas and finally take a hard turn off the coast and off into the Atlantic.

This is really too far out to make these predictions, but this is what I see happening given the weather patterns of the US and the hurricane as it has been the last few days.

[Ryan Ruck]

Euro rain map from earlier:

[Ryan Ruck]

Getting caught up on the latest and the most recent GFS run actually has this storm making a 1-2 punch on FL!

[Malsua]

That Looptie Loo is bizarre, I don't think it will verify.

[American Patriot]

That's the area where they won't allow anchoring now. It's KARMA. lol

[Malsua]

That's the area where they won't allow anchoring now. It's KARMA. lol

What do you mean, won't allow anchoring? I didn't realize they passed the anti-anchor law.

[American Patriot]

Ft. Lauderdale, all the way down to Miami. Whole lot of places in individuals areas. Not a state thing, just the places some rich guys don't want boats anchored out....

[Ryan Ruck]

That Looptie Loo is bizarre, I don't think it will verify.

I'm starting to wonder. A lot of model agreement on the start of a loop...

[American Patriot]

I'm a little pissed at the NHC. They've drawn this out, they aren't putting a lot of data in so that they are only doing vague predicting. Think back about 10 years ago, even 15. They were damned accurate. Then Katrina came along and messed up things. They didn't think it was going to do what it did.

And people didn't prepare.

I honestly think that the NHC now plays it close and if you watched they warned us all the way up the coast to Canada that we were getting hit. EVERYONE on the coast has been shitting themselves.

[American Patriot]

I still see this thing headed off shore. By Sunday night we should know for sure, but I think it will be moving East and away from the coast or Bahamas. It will track with the fronts that were pushing out so it SHOULD tend East more than south... but that front, it's moving SE. We will see.

[American Patriot]

If you look, you can see what that front is doing. I've been watching this thing since the hurricane started. I don't think it will push too far past it, however, behind is a high. Dry, stable air, which IF the hurricane is powerful enough will hit that in a day or so and start to fall down in powerif SHOULD mostly follow that front... which is why it's looping.

If you look west, you will see another front coming towards Ryan. THAT will absolutely be the death of that hurricane.

[Malsua]

Well, since this thing looks like it will loop...you still could get it on round two if it climbs the coast.

[American Patriot]

National Hurricane Center web site is offline.

Been down for a few hours now I guess

[American Patriot]

So far I've called all the milestones.

Hurricane moved north slower than normal.
Hit Haiti (not Jamaica).
Hit Gitmo (70nm east)
Hit Grand Bahama (just west of it)
pulled up to Florida and STOPPED offshore, moving north and is near Daytona Beach now.

I called it coming ashore at Daytona. It might not.

NHC said it would curve around and come back. I said "Bullshit" it's going to turn right and go out to sea and bother Bermuda a bit.

Hurricane Nicole will hover and turn right and maybe even merge with Matthew and head across to fuck with England's weather in a few days.

I just checked radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar...t=NCR&loop=yes

It's right there at Daytona..... like I said. The eye will likely hit the city just touching.

[Malsua]

The heavy winds from this storm have all been out to sea...as far as damage goes, it's been a dud so far. It looks like it's going to touch off land and head out a bit. The only concerns will be the impacts north of FL.

Don't get me wrong, it's a big storm, but it's wrapped pretty tightly and it's hanging far enough out that the fish are getting the worst of it.