Weather Thread

[American Patriot]

But wait 14F is bloody cold.

Anyway.

It's cold.

I hate the cold.

It's been pretty nice around here lately. As high as the 50s. Last few nights in the 20s (about 20-22 each evening).

I'll be taking the rest of the year off.

I'm done working this year.

[MinutemanCO]

Looks like that system has blown right past Colorado to the north. It's been relatively quiet here so far. Even in the mountains.

[Ryan Ruck]

Video of interest for you Mal: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...nnel=top_story

[Ryan Ruck]

New temperature map for 5th-7th. -22F?!?! I really hope it doesn't end up that cold.





There's been a bit of a westward swing in the Euro snow model I posted before, which isn't wholly unexpected this far out. Shows us getting next to no snow, mostly rain.



Not sure how any westward movement is even possible given the the extreme cold air plowing in behind it.

[Ryan Ruck]

Text from Cincy Airport:


GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CVG LAT= 39.05 LON= -84.67 ELE= 876

12Z JAN01 * - APPROXIMATED
2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500
(F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
WED 12Z 01-JAN 27.9 18.1 1026 32.2 34 558 538
WED 18Z 01-JAN 42.0 23.8 1023 31.5 22 0.00 557 538
THU 00Z 02-JAN 31.9 17.2 1020 30.4 43 0.00 555 539
THU 06Z 02-JAN 32.3 19.2 1018 29.2 83 0.00 552 538
THU 12Z 02-JAN 31.5 24.1 1013 23.9 99 0.02 546 536
THU 18Z 02-JAN 30.4 29.2 1012 20.2 100 0.16 538 528
FRI 00Z 03-JAN 14.9 11.4 1020 9.6 98 0.05 531 516
FRI 06Z 03-JAN 10.6 7.3 1027 1.6 84 0.01 531 510
FRI 12Z 03-JAN 7.0 3.8 1032 1.2 8 0.00 546 521
FRI 18Z 03-JAN 15.5 12.9 1033 5.7 20 0.00 555 530
SAT 00Z 04-JAN 13.8 5.7 1031 17.9 38 0.00 559 535
SAT 06Z 04-JAN 14.1 7.9 1027 29.6 39 0.00 559 539
SAT 12Z 04-JAN 16.3 9.6 1024 33.3 29 0.00 560 542
SAT 18Z 04-JAN 32.3 19.2 1020 35.5 25 0.00 559 543
SUN 00Z 05-JAN 29.7 18.6 1020 32.6 58 0.00 558 542
SUN 06Z 05-JAN 30.4 22.2 1019 25.1 99 0.00 554 539
SUN 12Z 05-JAN 29.0 27.3 1017 26.1 100 0.06 550 536
SUN 18Z 05-JAN 30.7 30.1 1014 21.4 100 0.23 545 533
MON 00Z 06-JAN 20.3 17.9 1021 16.7 74 0.16 537 521
MON 06Z 06-JAN 0.0 -2.8 1027 14.7 31 0.00 534 514
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.0 -7.3 1030 11.0 72 0.00 533 511
MON 18Z 06-JAN 2.6 2.2 1031 -1.2 99 0.00 531 508
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.3 -8.8 1035 -8.8 17 0.01 529 504
TUE 06Z 07-JAN -13.8 -16.2 1037 -7.5 27 0.00 530 503
TUE 12Z 07-JAN -16.1 -18.1 1039 -7.7 28 0.00 531 503
TUE 18Z 07-JAN -7.7 -6.6 1040 -7.5 41 0.00 532 503
WED 00Z 08-JAN -11.8 -14.8 1043 -6.4 22 0.00 537 506
WED 06Z 08-JAN -14.9 -17.9 1046 1.6 17 0.00 541 509
WED 12Z 08-JAN -18.1 -22.4 1047 7.1 11 0.00 547 514



If these temps hold out, this is likely to be some of the coldest weather I've seen in my life. Makes me glad I picked up all that ECWCS gear!

Of course, I'm sure you're laughing at those numbers Toad.

[Ryan Ruck]

Canadian model that includes snow from the system that will be moving through soon:

[Ryan Ruck]

Another Canadian model of projected accumulated snowfall through January 11th around my area. If only!

[Malsua]

It looks like I'm taking a pretty big hit...6-12 inches with a 10% chance of holy shit.

That next storm seems to be fizzling...we'll see.

[Ryan Ruck]

Holy cow... It just keeps getting forecast colder and colder!



I think I'm going to be picking up a kerosene heater or two. This paper thin farm house I'm in has a hard enough time staying warm during normal winter temps. I don't think my furnace would ever shut off with those. Plus, the propane is getting low and I didn't want to fill up until I had tax rebate money in hand.

[Toad]

LULZ, Ryan! It's -20 here this morning, but it's supposed to get to 8 degrees which will feel pretty nice. The local forcast has the high of the day on Sunday though at -25. A warning out for windchills near -60. That's going to be just %$#&king brutal.

[Ryan Ruck]

Hoo boy! I like the colder weather but that is too cold for me.

Those temps are tied to that same system that's going to affect us. The wind chill is, like you said, going to be brutal.

I've always wondered how our ATMs hold up in temperatures like that and how service techs in areas like yours handle service calls in such extreme cold. We start having problems with equipment around here when temps hit the teens.

[Ryan Ruck]

Well, we're now less than 24 hours away from this storm and I still have no idea what in the world we can expect for snowfall.

I've seen models range from giving us mostly rain (which will flash freeze when the cold temps move in) with 1-2", all the way up to 6-9".

The only thing that has remained constant is that it is going to be pretty damn cold for this area clear to Wednesday.

Here's a shot of some older runs from last night of several models so you can see the insanity I'm talking about:



This is from the Wilmington, OH NWS office from this morning:



Meanwhile their text states my county has a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4" despite being in the middle of the graphic's 4-8" band, and Cincinnati proper has a Winter Storm Warning calling for 3-6".





In other news, I got my hands on one of these DynaGlo 23,000 BTU kerosene heaters from someone on Craigslist:



Took a bit of a drive to pick up but I snagged it for $35 and the seller generously included a new wick, a 5 gallon Blitz kero can (with 1-1.5 gallons of kero in it), and a cheapie hand squeeze transfer pump.

Gave it a trial run last night and it did pretty great.

I've normally been keeping the furnace set at 60 as a backup heat source and primarily heating with several oil-filled electric heaters spread throughout the house. They do a good job keeping the temps around 65-70 inside when it is down to the low 20s-upper teens, and they have the benefit of being scalable so I can put heat where I need it.

Last night we were set to get down to the low single digits so I turned off the furnace and set the electric heaters to medium (I normally set them to low at night when it's in the 20s-teens and let the furnace keep it above 60) to see how well it would do and, in conjunction with my oil filled heaters, it kept the first floor of the house at 75. It was probably about 10 degrees colder upstairs because of how drafty this old farmhouse is. It got down to 3 last night so I'd say it was a pretty good test.

Aside from right after startup and right after turning it off, there wasn't really any odor and I never saw any soot coming off the flame.

I would have liked to have picked up a second heater for the second floor for more uniform temperatures in the house but, the only thing important up there is my brother's room and he's got one of the electric heaters. We do most of our living on the first floor anyway. Who knows if I'll be able to get my hands on another heater before the cold hits. I'll just have to keep my eyes on Craigslist or maybe just end up waiting until the warmer months to snag one at a cheap price.

[Ryan Ruck]

Well, I guess this explains the discrepancy I mentioned earlier with the warning/advisory. Just got an updated map that jives with them.



Probably going to get screwed out of snow with this storm.

[Ryan Ruck]

Yep, still going to be cold...

[Malsua]

The cold is a coming!

Ryan, read what I wrote below, perhaps you want to rethink your "turn the furnace down".

Several tips.

1. If you have vulnerable heating pipes, make sure those zones runs at least every 30 minutes. A corollary to that; turn your heat up. If you run it at 67, turn it up to 72. Yes, it will cost you money and yes the furnace may run constantly. That's the point. Depending on how your furnace is configured, it may be possible to run the zones even when the furnace is not running, if so, go lock the zone valves open. Running water is much harder to freeze.

2. If you have faucets or toilet lines that are at risk, run 'em. Drip your faucets. My kitchen is on pillars and the water pipes run under the floor, above the ground and while we've closed up the space with plastic, it's still outside. Before we wrapped and heat-taped the pipes, we dripped the water. It works. As a side note, this particular area was my introduction to PEX. Pex pipes are plastic that can freeze solid and not burst. After fixing the copper that burst on nights we forgot to drip the water, I found pex and replaced all of it. Even when it did freeze, I was able to thaw it, no damage done.

3. If you have a toilet that freezes, buy some RV anti-freeze and dump it in the tank and the bowl. Don't use that flush away the anti-freeze until the crisis has passed. If you need the toilet, rig the float to never shut off. Every toilet is different, but use string, a weight, whatever to make it never shut off. One way is to simply put something under the flap. If you need to use the toilet, remove item from flap, fill it, flush it and keep the flap open again. This also has the benefit of running water through the lines from your tank/main.

4. Finally, if you have cold rooms, go buy some shrink film for some of the windows. This is the stuff you stick on and use a hair dryer to shrink tight. Before my renovation, we had old casement windows that you could see through. If we didn't use the film, snow would blow in. Waking up at 2am with snow on your face and bed was not fun. Ask me how I know.

[Ryan Ruck]

So close, yet so far...

[Ryan Ruck]

The cold is a coming!

Ryan, read what I wrote below, perhaps you want to rethink your "turn the furnace down".

Several tips.

1. If you have vulnerable heating pipes, make sure those zones runs at least every 30 minutes. A corollary to that; turn your heat up. If you run it at 67, turn it up to 72. Yes, it will cost you money and yes the furnace may run constantly. That's the point. Depending on how your furnace is configured, it may be possible to run the zones even when the furnace is not running, if so, go lock the zone valves open. Running water is much harder to freeze.

2. If you have faucets or toilet lines that are at risk, run 'em. Drip your faucets. My kitchen is on pillars and the water pipes run under the floor, above the ground and while we've closed up the space with plastic, it's still outside. Before we wrapped and heat-taped the pipes, we dripped the water. It works. As a side note, this particular area was my introduction to PEX. Pex pipes are plastic that can freeze solid and not burst. After fixing the copper that burst on nights we forgot to drip the water, I found pex and replaced all of it. Even when it did freeze, I was able to thaw it, no damage done.

3. If you have a toilet that freezes, buy some RV anti-freeze and dump it in the tank and the bowl. Don't use that flush away the anti-freeze until the crisis has passed. If you need the toilet, rig the float to never shut off. Every toilet is different, but use string, a weight, whatever to make it never shut off. One way is to simply put something under the flap. If you need to use the toilet, remove item from flap, fill it, flush it and keep the flap open again. This also has the benefit of running water through the lines from your tank/main.

4. Finally, if you have cold rooms, go buy some shrink film for some of the windows. This is the stuff you stick on and use a hair dryer to shrink tight. Before my renovation, we had old casement windows that you could see through. If we didn't use the film, snow would blow in. Waking up at 2am with snow on your face and bed was not fun. Ask me how I know.

Yep, way ahead of you on a couple of those Mal!

I should have mentioned in my kero heater test run that I really only turned the furnace down to give it a good test run simulating no power but I thought I was getting a little long winded in my post.

I've got enough generation capacity to handle the space heaters on high and wanted to see how well that heater by itself made up for a lack of furnace. I'm really hoping the kero heater will just help keep the furnace from, like you said, running constantly. I'm going to keep the furnace on for the duration and possibly turn it above 60 depending on how we're looking.

I'm in year 10 in this old farmhouse I rent so there's only so much I can do to weatherize but if it can be done, I've probably done it. The drafty windows have had plastic on them for years and replaced once they start getting yellowed. Fortunately there are really only 2 problem windows. Most are newer vinyl windows.

The real draftiness comes from the propane water heater vent, lack of insulation and vapor barrier on exterior walls, poor insulation in the roof, lack of any insulation below the kitchen floor, no caulking around window frames, and ill fitting doors (the landlady did replace the worst door and frame in the laundry room but it still isn't great).

I'm onto the faucet drip trick too. That first winter was a surprise when the hot water wouldn't run! The house wasn't originally built with indoor plumbing and had it added. When it was added, most of it was run along the non-insulated exterior wall in an addition that was thrown onto the house as an afterthought to give it indoor plumbing and a bathroom. Dripping faucets have been a necessity every winter here at one point or another, usually when we get below 20-25.

Good idea on the toilet though. The one in the spare closet sized toilet will probably need to be setup to drip. The main one drips naturally because I haven't bothered the landlady about it.

What really sucks about this house though is that at one point it used to have, by my estimate from the closed off holes in the walls/floor, at least 3 wood stoves. There was one in the kitchen, one in the main living area, and one (possibly 2) on the second floor. They were removed at some point probably to free up living space and forced air was installed. Would really love to have those wood stoves still installed. With those burning full bore, I can understand why one wouldn't see the need to insulate the house!

[Malsua]

I had posted those tips on my gun forum, simply because some folks don't even know you can drip faucets. Running water doesn't freeze.

Do you have a temperature map for the time period?

My mom's house is up near Coschocton, and I'm curious as to what it'll get to there.

[Ryan Ruck]

This is the coldest of this system Monday into Tuesday.

[American Patriot]

It's -12 at my house this morning, when I left. Supposed to get up to 30s today. /shrug.

I didn't even go out of the house yesterday it was so cold, it hurt