Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

[Malsua]

Expect Yellowstone to do the same. No warning.

A volcano that has been dormant for 100 years is not dormant, it is considered active. Dormant is at least 10,000 years since the last eruption.

A super-volcano will most definitely give warning. The ground under the magma dome will probably swell significantly before it blows. The Earth in the caldera will be shaking like crazy. Something that big doesn't catch anyone by surprise. Perhaps the alacrity at which it progresses to the blow may be surprising, but that much molten magma does not move around without anyone noticing.

[American Patriot]

"dormant" does not equal "active" Mal. Sorry.

In fact they are diametric opposites. lol

Yellowstone has been giving warning.

Mt. St. Helens wasn't a supervolcano and it too gave warnings.

Mt. Vesuvius didn't "give warning". Not a lot. It started simply erupting until it exploded.

Krakatoa gave MONTHS of warning before it blew up in a series of explosions.

Mt. Tambora gave off mild ash (just like this one did)... then a few weeks later, blew up.

So - the chances of a volcano giving warning aren't as good as you might imagine. About 50/50.

Further, even IF THERE IS WARNING, are you going to do anything about it in NJ (Yellowstone that is?).

You're NOT going to move, you're not going to do anything to mitigate it if it does blow up. Most people will do nothing at all only consider the news to be "Just news...." and gossip about it. Until it explodes.

Too late then. The ash will come to those who wait.

[American Patriot]

Here's an article with some maps and estimates of the fallout from the last eruption of Yellowstone 70,000 years ago.

Is America Headed for Yellowstone Super-Volcano Eruption Catastrophe?

• Posted on January 25, 2011 at 7:07am by Meredith Jessup
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“It would explode with a force a thousand times more powerful than the Mount St Helens eruption in 1980,” the UK’s Daily Mail warns. The world’s largest super-volcano located underneath the United States’ Yellowstone National Park is set to blow.

Spewing lava far into the sky, a cloud of plant-killing ash would fan out and dump a layer 10ft deep up to 1,000 miles away.

Two-thirds of the U.S. could become uninhabitable as toxic air sweeps through it, grounding thousands of flights and forcing millions to leave their homes.
This is the nightmare that scientists are predicting could happen if the world’s largest super-volcano erupts for the first time in 600,000 years, as it could do in the near future.

Yellowstone National Park’s caldera has erupted three times in the last 2.1 million years and researchers monitoring it say we could be in for another eruption.

Scientists have reportedly watched as the super-volcano situated underneath northwestern Wyoming rose at a record rate from 2004-2008 — an average of three inches every year. This rate of movement is more than three times greater than ever observed since such measurement records began in 1923.
Since 2008, the rate has slowed significantly,and the U.S. Geological Survey says there is “no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future.”

But recurrence intervals are neither regular nor predictable and a lack of data has kept geologists from putting any exact date on any potential eruption warning.

When the eruption finally happens it will dwarf the effect of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which erupted in April last year, causing travel chaos around the world. …

Robert B. Smith, professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, who has led a recent study into the volcano, added: ‘Our best evidence is that the crustal magma chamber is filling with molten rock.

‘But we have no idea how long this process goes on before there either is an eruption or the inflow of molten rock stops and the caldera deflates again’.

The Yellowstone Caldera — or “cooking pot” — sits atop North America’s largest volcanic field. The most recent large blast from the Caldera happened an estimated 640,000 years ago and the most recent small eruption happened about 70,000 years ago.

The estimated area of ashfall from the Yellowstone Caldera's last large eruption.

‘Clearly some deep source of magma feeds Yellowstone, and since Yellowstone has erupted in the recent geological past, we know that there is magma at shallower depths too,’ said Dan Dzurisin, a Yellowstone expert with the U.S. Geological Survey at Cascades Volcano Observatory in Washington State.

‘There has to be magma in the crust, or we wouldn’t have all the hydrothermal activity that we have.

‘There is so much heat coming out of Yellowstone right now that if it wasn’t being reheated by magma, the whole system would have gone stone cold since the time of the last eruption 70,000 years ago.’

(More at this link: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/is-a...on-catastophe/)

[American Patriot]

Scientists have reportedly watched as the super-volcano situated underneath northwestern Wyoming rose at a record rate from 2004-2008 — an average of three inches every year. This rate of movement is more than three times greater than ever observed since such measurement records began in 1923.

In other words... we've already BEEN warned. I don't see anyone doing anything about it. No one is moving out of the region. No one in the US Government (FEMA for instance) is PLANNING for it, unless their trite "get a go bag" set of commercials can be considered as preparing the US Public for this disaster.

I don't see the states planning to mass evacuations.

I don't see the rest of the world getting prepared to ship in the food stuffs needed for the survival of the United States.

In fact, the ONLY people preparing are the Chinese and Russians.

When it happens, they will simply move in and kill the surviving Americans and take over the land itself, keeping it for themselves for a few hundred years until things start to grow again.

They are preparing in a big way. The US Government isn't doing anything to prepare the public except telling them "don't worry".

[American Patriot]

'Lord of the Rings' volcano erupts in New Zealand

The dormant volcano erupted Monday night in a New Zealand national park, where many scenes from the 'Lord of the Rings' movies were filmed.


By Nick Perry, Associated Press / August 7, 2012

• 

Ash from New Zealand's Mount Tongariro covers houses and farmland in this still image taken from video, August 7. A New Zealand volcano dormant for more than a century has spewed boulders and spread an ash cloud over the center of the country, disrupting air traffic but causing no other damage or injuries.
TV3 via Reuters TV/Reuers

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Wellington, New Zealand

A volcano quiet for more than a century erupted in a New Zealand national park, spreading thick ash for several miles and causing some residents to evacuate their homes. Some domestic flights were canceled Tuesday.
Mount Tongariro spewed ash and rocks for about 30 minutes late Monday night after a few weeks of increased seismic activity. It didn't cause any injuries or damage in the sparsely populated central North Island region. Tongariro National Park has three active volcanos, is a popular tourist destination and was the backdrop for many scenes in the "Lord of the Rings" movies.


RELATED World's most active volcanoes



Some residents left their homes as a precaution, and authorities temporarily closed roads. National carrier Air New Zealand canceled or delayed domestic flights to towns near the mountain, though by Tuesday afternoon, it said it was resuming service to locations where the ash cloud had cleared. No international flights were affected.


Police said a witness to the eruption described flashes and explosions followed by a cloud of ash coming from a hole in the north face of the mountain. The Department of Conservation said three hikers were staying in a hut on the opposite slope of Mount Tongariro when it erupted but they walked out of the area safely.


Steve Sherburn, a volcanologist at the government agency GNS Science, said the eruption spread a layer of ash one or two inches thick for several miles. He said he'd heard reports of ash traveling on wind currents to coastal towns 60 miles away. He said the eruption was likely caused by steam pressure building within the mountain.


The nation's civil defense ministry said eruption activity was subsiding though it still urged caution for people who were in the vicinity of the volcano. The park has closed hiking trails and sleeping huts on the mountain for now.


New Zealand is part of the Pacific's "Ring of Fire" and has frequent geothermal and seismic activity. However, the last verified eruption of Mount Tongariro occurred in 1897, marking the end of a decade of volcanic activity.


Sherburn said it was too early to determine whether the latest eruption was the start of a renewed cycle of activity.

[American Patriot]

Hey, Mal... I need to clarify something.

When you said that the volcano wasn't dormant because it hadn't erupted in 100 years... I thought about it.

There is a definite definition of what makes one active, dormant and extinct.

So - if it has erupted in "historic times" but not since, it is classified as dormant.

If it has erupted recently, is erupting or is expected to (Mt. St. Helens is an example of one that was expected too) then it is "active".

If it hasn't erupted in a long period of time and isn't expected to erupt again in the future it is classified as "extinct".

[American Patriot]

Hidden 'super volcano' could kill millions, scientists warn

In olden days, Campi Flegrei, across bay from Pompeii, was thought to be entrance to hell




Giampiero Sposito / Reuters A dog lies on the ground in Pompeii, the famous Italian city next to Naples that was destroyed in 79 A.D. by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius.

By Antonio Denti




updated 8/3/2012 2:06:52 PM ET
POZZUOLI, Italy — Across the bay of Naples from Pompeii, where thousands were incinerated by Mount Vesuvius in 79 A.D., lies a hidden "super volcano" that could kill millions in a catastrophe many times worse, scientists say.
The boiling mud and sulphurous steam holes of the area west of Naples known as the Campi Flegrei or Phlegraean Fields, from the Greek word for burning, are a major tourist attraction.
But the zone of intense seismic activity, which the ancients thought was the entrance to hell, also could pose a danger of global proportions with millions of people literally living on top of a potential future volcanic eruption.

NASA A Landsat satellite view shows the Campi Flegrei caldera north of the Bay of Naples. The 13-km-wide caldera, west of Naples (upper right), was created following massive explosive eruptions about 34,000 and 12,000 years ago. Subsequent eruptions formed a large number of craters and pyroclastic cones within the caldera and along its margins. The most recent eruption created the Monte Nuovo cinder cone in 1538.



"These areas can give rise to the only eruptions that can have global catastrophic effects comparable to major meteorite impacts," said Giuseppe De Natale, head of a project to drill deep under the Earth to monitor the molten "caldera."


One such meteorite impact is thought to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago when debris thrown into the atmosphere from the huge explosion plunged the Earth into darkness.


Scientists plan to drill 3.5 km (2.2 miles) below the surface to monitor the huge chamber of molten rock near Pompeii and give early warning of any eruption from a 13-km-wide collapsed volcanic caldera.


The Campi Flegrei are similar to the Yellowstone caldera in the U.S. but of more concern because they are in an area populated by around 3 million people in the Naples hinterland.

"Fortunately, it is extremely rare for these areas to erupt at their full capacity, as it is extremely rare for large meteorites to hit the Earth," De Natale told Reuters.


"But some of these areas, in particular the Campi Flegrei, are densely populated and therefore even small eruptions, which are the most probable, fortunately, can pose risks for the population," said De Natale, from the Vesuvius observatory at Italy's National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology.


"That is why the Campi Flegrei absolutely must be studied and monitored. I wouldn't say like others, but much more than the others exactly because of the danger given that millions of people live in the volcano."


However, the project, funded by the multi-national International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, has run into major opposition from some local scientists who say the drilling itself could cause a dangerous eruption or earthquake.


Explosion?

Benedetto De Vivo, a geochemist at Naples University, has said the drilling could cause an explosion.


The Naples city council blocked the project in 2010 but it resumed on the site of an abandoned steel mill at Bagnoli, west of Naples, late last month after the recently elected new mayor, Luigi De Magistris, gave the go-ahead.


De Natale scoffed at the objections, saying that the drilling was perfectly safe and that similar probes had been sent down by mining projects looking for sources of thermal energy in the 1980s and earlier.


"There were dozens of drillings in the past, with much less secure instruments, for industrial motives and nobody said anything," he said.


He added that those raising objections were not experts on drilling and that their suggestions of potential earthquakes or escapes of magma or liquid molten rock had been exaggerated by the local media.


"Some of the things they suggested are laughable," he said, adding that the project's priority will be scientific knowledge and safety of the local population rather than industrial exploitation as in the past.


"We believe the security of millions of people deserves the most powerful methods of inquiry without thinking too much about the economic aspect," he said.


He added that drilling is the only way to discover the geological history of the area because successive eruptions buried previous evidence. The probe has already found volcanic rock from a major eruption 15,000 years ago.


De Natale's team has begun drilling a pilot hole at the Bagnoli site, where a long jetty built to load steel is used by joggers and courting couples enjoying the spectacular Neapolitan sunsets.


The pilot hole is aimed not only at studying the stratification of the area but to establish a deep geological observatory with new instruments which De Natale says are many times more sensitive than those in the past.


"This will increase by 1,000 or 10,000 times our ability to detect small episodes that are precursors of future eruptions," he said.


Movement of Earth's surface
The project also aims to study the cause of a phenomenon known as bradyseism which is a gradual raising and lowering of the Earth's surface because of deep volcanic activity. This is episodic but in the latest phase the ground has risen by 3.5 m (yards) in 15 years, the most since medieval times.


This movement forced the evacuation of 30,000 people temporarily from Pozzuoli in the 1980s and a fishing harbor in the old part of the town was completely abandoned.


Once work is complete on the pilot hole, scientists plan to drill much deeper, to around 3.5 km where temperatures are at around 500 degrees C (930 F). But De Natale said this could take another 18 months and the area for the second phase has not yet been decided.



His team has developed new fiber optic sensors able to withstand the extreme heat that would have destroyed earlier electronic equipment.


"We will be able to identify the smallest signs of a future eruption ... this is an enormous mitigation of the volcanic risk," he said.


De Natale says there will be no risk of an escape of magma because the molten chamber is at 7-km depth or lower and sensors will give ample warning of temperatures that reach 1,000 degrees C at the molten core.


"We will stop everything if we detect temperatures at 500 degrees ... we can close the top of the drilling hole hermetically in a fraction of a second," he said.


Local people are divided on whether the drilling could be dangerous.


"There is a risk that the drilling can lead to a shift of the Earth's surface and if that happened, rather than helping to predict future problems, they will be creating them," Pozzuoli student Marco Laporta said.


Many are more sanguine. "Back in the 1980s they said we would all be blown up and we weren't," pensioner Luigi Bruni said.

[Malsua]

Hey, Mal... I need to clarify something.

When you said that the volcano wasn't dormant because it hadn't erupted in 100 years... I thought about it.

There is a definite definition of what makes one active, dormant and extinct.

So - if it has erupted in "historic times" but not since, it is classified as dormant.

If it has erupted recently, is erupting or is expected to (Mt. St. Helens is an example of one that was expected too) then it is "active".

If it hasn't erupted in a long period of time and isn't expected to erupt again in the future it is classified as "extinct".

The definition is as I stated it. 10,000 years of inactivity before it is considered dormant. If it went off 100 years ago, it's still active with no recent eruptions.

[American Patriot]

Hence "historical times" (while we've been keeping records)

[Malsua]

Hence "historical times" (while we've been keeping records)

Well, to be clear, if it has erupted in at any point in recorded human history, it is an active volcano.

[American Patriot]

Right. I'm agreeing with you. lol

[American Patriot]

What I DID NOT agree with was your "definition". And I still don't agree.

(You said a 'dormant volcano' is active... however you worded it wasn't worded right, and I was laughing about the way you worded it! )

[American Patriot]

Oh, here it is.. hehe

A volcano that has been dormant for 100 years is not dormant, it is considered active.

Obviously if it has been "dormant" it isn't active. If it is active, it isn't dormant. That's all

[Malsua]

What's the air speed velocity of a sparrow carrying a coconut?

[American Patriot]

African? Or European?

[Ryan Ruck]

Swarm Of Quakes Rattle California, Arizona: USGS

August 26, 2012

A series of earthquakes measuring up to 5.4 rattled southern California, Arizona and the Mexican border region Sunday, seismologists said, although no damage or injuries were immediately reported.

The small- and medium-level quakes were felt from San Diego and Orange County in California east into Arizona, and swamped the temblor-measuring resources of the US Geological Survey (USGS).

The quakes began around 12:16 pm (2016 GMT) with a magnitude 4 temblor 16 miles (26 km) north of El Centro, California, and lasted more than two hours. The biggest shakes included a magnitude 5.4 at 13:57, with the same epicenter.

The so-called "seismic swarm" is a relatively rare occurrence.

"We haven't seen one of these since the 1970s, and there was another one back in the 1930s," said USGS seismologist Lucy Jones.

"Our system is choking on so many earthquakes."

Buildings were evacuated in Brawley, 115 miles east-northeast of San Diego. "It's pretty bad, we had to evacuate the hotel just for safety," said Rowena Rapoza, office manager at the Best Western Hotel there.

[American Patriot]

Yellowstone is next....

/grin

[American Patriot]

Big quake off the coast of Philippines. Wonder if the "swarm" a few days ago was a sign of things to come? There were apparently several hundred small tremors in California the other day. Maybe they were a portend to this?

Quake of 7.9 magnitude strikes off Philippines: USGS









MANILA | Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:46am EDT




(Reuters) - An earthquake of 7.9 magnitude struck off the Philippines on Friday and a tsunami warning has been issued for the region, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said.


The quake was centered off the east coast, 91 miles off the town of Guiuan in Samar province at a depth of about 20 miles, USGS said.


The tsunami warning was issued for the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Papua New Guinea and other islands in the Pacific including the U.S. state of Hawaii.


The NOAA Tsunami Center later lifted a warning for Japan, Taiwan and several other Pacific islands.


"Strong earthquake here in Taft, Eastern Samar! And it lasted very long too!" Samar congressman, Ben Evardone, told reporters via text message.


An official at the Philippines' Volcanolgy Institute said he expected damage had been caused in Samar province but he had yet to receive any reports.


"If you are anywhere near the coast I recommend that you head to higher ground," Paul Caruso of the USGS told Sky TV by telephone when asked about a threat of a tsunami hitting the coast of the Philippines.

[American Patriot]

31 August 2012 Last updated at 09:47 ET

Tsunami alert after earthquake off Philippines




A tsunami warning has been issued for the Philippines, Indonesia and Palau after a 7.9-magnitude earthquake offshore.


The quake had a depth of 33km (20 miles) and struck at 20:47 local time (12:47 GMT), the US Geological Survey said. It was located off the Philippines island of Samar.


There are no details of any damage or casualties from the quake.


It is not yet known if a tsunami has actually been generated.


Warnings were also initially issued for Taiwan, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and Yap, but were later lifted.

[American Patriot]

7.9 Mwp - PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude	7.9 Mwp
Date-Time	· 31 Aug 2012 12:47:34 UTC · 31 Aug 2012 20:47:34 near epicenter · 31 Aug 2012 05:47:34 standard time in your timezone
Location	10.828N 126.677E
Depth	34 km
Distances	· 106 km (66 miles) ESE (102 degrees) of Guiuan, Samar, Philippines · 175 km (109 miles) NE (48 degrees) of Surigao, Mindanao, Philippines · 187 km (116 miles) ESE (104 degrees) of Tacloban, Leyte, Philippines · 749 km (465 miles) SE (124 degrees) of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty	Horizontal: 13.7 km; Vertical 5.8 km
Parameters	Nph = 486; Dmin = 432.9 km; Rmss = 1.00 seconds; Gp = 13° M-type = Mwp; Version = 9
Event ID	us c000cc5m

For updates, maps, and technical information, see:
Event Page
or
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
National Earthquake Information Center
U.S. Geological Survey
http://neic.usgs.gov/