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Thread: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

  1. #301
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    I believe, in my most unscientific way, that the earth releases stress in a systematic way. So, when earthquakes occur, they occur in patterns until the energy within has been dispersed. The waves generated by the earthquake must travel in and through the crust, mantle and core of the earth until they reach the opposite point on the sphere. Then reflection would happen. Other related quakes.

    Then again, what the hell do I know? Geology 101.

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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    You're pretty much right. I had never heard of swarms before a few years ago and then I saw a graphic map that showed years and years of data on quakes that had been plotted in a moving fashion. When a set of quakes happened a few weeks, months or even a couple of years later, another group would occur.

    While the map was showing Russia and Asia you could see a CLEAR progression of the quakes moving a little at a time across the whole of the continents going east to west.

    In the US, I'm betting the same thing could be shown going west to east.

    Everything moving from "the Ring of Fire".

    The California swarm is east of the ring of fire. The Philippines are directly in it. To me this indicates something BIG happening in the Pacific right now and moving away from the "center" (where ever that is).
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Quake Off The Philippines Triggers Tsunami Alert

    A 7.9-magnitude undersea quake struck off the eastern coast of the Philippines late Friday, triggering tsunami warnings across a wide swath of Asia. (AP)






    By AKIKO FUJITA (@akikofujita)

    Aug. 31, 2012





    A powerful earthquake struck off the eastern coast of the Philippines Friday, knocking out power to several cities, and triggering tsunami alerts all along the active Pacific "Ring of Fire."


    The magnitude 7.6 quake hit roughly 66 miles east of Samar Island, and had a depth of 20 miles, according to the USGS.

    Tsunami alerts were issued in seven countries including the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan. Most were lifted shortly after, but along the eastern coast of Japan, still rebuilding from a devastating tsunami last March, residents were told to seek higher ground as a precaution, according to broadcaster NHK.


    The Japan Meteorological Agency forecast small waves to hit the coast of Japan late Friday night.


    In the southern Cagayan de Oro city in the Philippines, local media reported one house collapsed, while power outages were reported in several other towns and cities across central and southern Philippines.
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Three earthquakes hit Philippines

    No casualties or damage to property were reported


    • By Barbara Mae Dacanay, Bureau Chief
    • Published: 14:05 August 27, 2012


    Manila: Three earthquakes measuring 6.6, 3.3, and 4.5 on the Richter scale, hit southern and northern Luzon, on Sunday and Monday, respectively, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said. No casualties or damage to property were reported.



    A temblor measuring 4.5 on the Richter scale hit 18 kilometres southeast of Laoag City, in northern Philippines, at 12.28om on Monday, Phivolcs said.



    A weaker earthquake measuring 3.3 occurred 8 kilometres southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental, in the southern Philippines at 5.48am on Monday, Phivolcs said.



    A strong earthquake measuring 6.6 hit the south earliest, 390 kilometres southeast of Sarangani, Davao del Sur, at 11.05pm on Sunday, Phivolcs added.



    The strong quake was of Intensity 4 in Davao City; Intensity 3 in General Santos City, and Intensity 2 in Koronadal City, Tupi, and Polomolok town in south Cotabato province.



    The Philippines is part of Asia Pacific’s Ring of Fire where earthquakes and typhoons occur often.
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Here's what I was talking about. Check this map out. Look where the ring of fire is located:

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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Here's a little different map:
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    And this one is actually better, it shows the plates of the planet.

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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    What are you driving at here?

    An Earthquake in the Philippines is about as uncommon as Oxygen.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Just trying to track the swarms that happened the other day in California in association with what happened today in Phillippines.

    Several hundred small quakes along that line in California might have been used in a predictive fashion.

    Then a big quake off the Philippines hits... (under water of course).

    Nothing concrete, just the fact we had a bunch on one side of the ring, then a big one on the other side. Its definite evidence that one set of quakes might be used as a predictive tool.

    The Pacific plate is moving North West and pretty much sliding across the North American plate, as well as pushing against the Philippines plate/trench.

    So, I'm just saying that it moved enough to cause quakes on opposite sides of the Pacific Plate at the same time (roughly and geologically speaking anyway).

    The reason (I think) we saw the swarms the other day was the plate sliding along and getting "unstuck" for a time causing tremors. If scientists were thinking it over and doing measurements at the time (which they are, I'm sure) they might have been able to use that information to predict a large quake off Philippines in the next few days.

    Which they didn't. (And probably never will because if they are wrong they look like idiots, if they are right they cause panic, LOL)
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    There are people who spend 100% of their time trying to make the correlations that you have made.

    Very little of it leads to anything predictive.

    About the only thing they can say with certainty is that a bunch of little quakes means that one massive quake probably won't occur.

    Massive quakes hit without warning most of the time. They snap and the Earth starts flopping.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Quote Originally Posted by Malsua View Post
    There are people who spend 100% of their time trying to make the correlations that you have made.

    Very little of it leads to anything predictive.

    About the only thing they can say with certainty is that a bunch of little quakes means that one massive quake probably won't occur.

    Massive quakes hit without warning most of the time. They snap and the Earth starts flopping.
    Actually, I think you're right... that a lot of little quakes mean a big one won't happen, where the little quakes are going on.

    Not in some other location though. As to the predictability of it all - I don't know enough about it, other than a "swarm" doesn't necessarily mean a lot of quakes in a short time.

    A swarm isn't defined that way - it's a lot of quakes over a LOT of time. As the video I saw showed over several hundred years.

    That's not good for predicting anything immediately, but it certainly COULD be used for a "this will happen here in the future - when we don't know, but it is GOING to happen".
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    So basically you're telling me to shut up?

    right?

    lol
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Not telling you to shut up, just suggesting that there's no correlation between a bunch of little quakes here or there and that they affect some other place.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    One other thing, it is a full moon.

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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Ok.

    I see a correlation.
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Correlation or coincidental timing?
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    I heard about the California shakes the other day and was talking to someone at work and said "Bet there's a big one someplace along the Ring of Fire". Just an off handed comment, nothing more, then it happened. That same person asked me this morning how I knew there was going to be another quake. I didn't know what he was talking about until I read the news. I told him I didn't know for sure, I was guessing and I had no clue where it would hit other than the Ring of Fire which is a HUGE area.

    I THOUGHT so because of the way the plate moves.

    Of course, I couldn't tell you where, could have been Alaska, Japan or New Zealand someplace, but I thought it was going to happen and it did.

    I almost never predict anything right unless I know something about the science behind it. I'm a better scientist than I am a politician (or political scientist). I never get things right in relation to other countries, but I generally come close when it comes to Earth sciences, electronics and things I'm pretty well versed in.

    When the Japanese quake hit in 2011 (it was around the beginning of March) I recall there being other quakes around the edge of the Ring of Fire within a month prior. Chile, New Zealand and then Japan.

    After Japan, New Zealand got hit again, April time frame. I don't recall the details but all the quakes were rather large and all of them were on the edge of the Ring of Fire.

    So, I'm thinking less coincidence than there is some kind of correlation.
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Just for the hell of it I went just now to the USGS site and looked up quakes in 2011.

    There are so many listed it's hard to tell what might just be coincidence or correlated... oh well.
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  19. #319
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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    There have been all sorts of methods that try to figure out quakes. The one that might still have some possible chance of success was the "doughnut" hypothesis by some Japanese guy. I don't recall his name.

    Essentially he was able to somewhat correlate a bunch of small quakes circling an area that eventually had a large quake. That said, it's a very inaccurate predictor and it was a regional thing, not thousands of miles away.
    "Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat."
    -- Theodore Roosevelt


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    Default Re: Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics and Volcanism

    Yeah... I'm not trying to predict a location. I just think there is a connection. I don't have a lot of scientific evidence for it haha

    One thing I have noted though, in trying to understand things about quakes, plate tectonics and so forth is that a swarm of quakes like California was getting are usually one of the events that precedes a volcanic eruption. Wikipedia has some information on this, and some of my old books have made comments along those lines.

    So it follows that those quakes happened and the bigger one under the sea was a volcanic eruption... of course we don't know that yet. But if it happens to BE and not a quake exactly, but say an undersea volcanic eruption or explosion we'll know soon enough (tsunami maybe) or other evidence.

    Then it COULD be related.

    On the other hand since the swam was in Ca. then maybe something on the mainland (Mexico?) will erupt soon? Who knows.

    I just noted several sites are screaming about this as being the precursor to the end of the world. lol
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