Russian Annexation Of Baltics Would Take Two Days
May 27, 2015
Russia would be able to occupy the Baltic countries in two days, a period during which NATO would not be capable of reacting adequately, Czech general Petr Pavel, who will take up the post of the NATO Military Committee head in June, said at a Prague conference on security affairs today.
Pavel warned that NATO's political representation is incapable of reacting to a changed situation fast enough.
He said the measures Europe has taken in face of the threats of Russia and Islamic State are "embarrassingly ineffective."
"On the one hand, one of [NATO's] disadvantages is its complex process of decision making. It is because NATO has 28 members who have to reach consensus on all conclusions," Pavel told the Czech News Agency.
On the other hand, Russia is capable of making a decision very quickly, within a few hours, he said.
The length of NATO's approval procedures on both the national and alliance levels far exceeds the deadlines within which its rapid reaction forces are capable of deployment, Pavel said.
The rapid reaction forces are able to intervene within two days, he said, adding that the political process must be put in harmony with the military forces' deployment deadlines.
Russia would be able to occupy the Baltics within two days, during which NATO would be incapable of reacting to the situation. NATO would face the question of whether to start war, perhaps nuclear, against Russia over the occupied Baltics, Pavel said.
"From a technical point of view, if I consider how many forces Russia is able to deploy in the Baltics, the size of the Baltic countries and the density of forces on their territories, the Baltics could really be occupied in a couple of days," Pavel told the Czech News Agency later in the day.
"A different question is how effective the deterrence element, represented by NATO's Article 5 and its nuclear component, would be in relation to Russia," Pavel said.
He also criticized shortcomings in NATO's sharing of intelligence information and the absence of NATO's own intelligence network.
Pavel's view was opposed by Jiř* Šedivý, Czech ambassador to NATO, who said NATO's intelligence system is of a high quality.
Šedivý said Russia would probably be able to occupy Kyiv, for example, within two days. However, the question is whether it would have sufficient logistical support afterward, he said.
Former Czech Chief-of-Staff Jiř* Šedivý, who bears no relation to ambassador cited above, said Russia could not win a war with NATO, and it is aware of this.
Nevertheless, Russia could try to destabilize society, he said, pointing out the demonstrable Russian propaganda that accompanied the previous Czech debate on whether to enable the installation of a U.S. missile defense radar near Prague, and the recent crossing of the Czech Republic by a U.S. military convoy.
He said he would welcome it if the state had an instrument to control the information environment.
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