Russia Threatens To Use 'Nuclear Force' Over Crimea And The Baltic States

[Ryan Ruck]

Now, here comes the next stepping stone after Ukraine.

Russia Threatens To Use 'Nuclear Force' Over Crimea And The Baltic States

April 2, 2015

Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force� to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions� that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of NATO.

According to notes made by an American at a meeting between Russian generals and US officials – and seen by The Times newspaper - Moscow threatened a “spectrum of responses from nuclear to non-military� if NATO moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The Russians told the meeting, which took place in Germany last month, that an attempt to return Crimea to Ukraine would be met “forcefully including through the use of nuclear force�.

And they said if NATO sent arms to Ukraine this would be seen as “further encroachment by NATO to the Russian border� and “the Russian people would demand a forceful response�.

They added that “the same conditions that existed in Ukraine and caused Russia to take action there� existed in the three Baltic states, which like Ukraine have significant numbers of people who regard themselves as ethnically Russian.

Russia was considering taking steps in the Baltics, according to the notes, but this would most likely be “destabilising actions that would be even harder to trace back to Russia than those of eastern Ukraine�.

The notes suggest Moscow would avoid “injections of troops and heavy weapons in favour of other tools�.

“Russia would hope slowly to entice those Russian populations towards Russia without giving NATO a pretext to deploy troops,� the document adds.

If NATO then responded, that would make it “a potential co-aggressor against Russian-speaking minorities in Baltic states�, a situation described as “potentially more dangerous than that in Ukraine to the United States�.

[American Patriot]

Basically, the Russians are boot strapping themselves back into power.

Take a little something here, threaten.

Take something over there, threaten.

The threats prevent pantywaist leaders like Obama from doing anything.

Then Russia takes something a bit larger, threatens, makes a stronger military, enhances their ability to reach out and touch someone.

Finally, they do something big, like invade a NATO ally (Poland anyone?) and threaten nukes and actually use them at that point.

[Ryan Ruck]

I see that as a very real possibility.

The only wild card I see is with the price of oil collapsing, how that's going to affect them.

I've already seen a report that says they're going to cut back on the number of PAK FAs they intend to acquire.

[American Patriot]

If oil continues to fall, Russia loses money. BUT, they have plenty of oil. That's something to remember. If you have energy, even though you have little money, you can still wage war. As long as you can keep the troops fed....

[Ryan Ruck]

Russian Annexation Of Baltics Would Take Two Days

May 27, 2015

Russia would be able to occupy the Baltic countries in two days, a period during which NATO would not be capable of reacting adequately, Czech general Petr Pavel, who will take up the post of the NATO Military Committee head in June, said at a Prague conference on security affairs today.

Pavel warned that NATO's political representation is incapable of reacting to a changed situation fast enough.

He said the measures Europe has taken in face of the threats of Russia and Islamic State are "embarrassingly ineffective."

"On the one hand, one of [NATO's] disadvantages is its complex process of decision making. It is because NATO has 28 members who have to reach consensus on all conclusions," Pavel told the Czech News Agency.

On the other hand, Russia is capable of making a decision very quickly, within a few hours, he said.

The length of NATO's approval procedures on both the national and alliance levels far exceeds the deadlines within which its rapid reaction forces are capable of deployment, Pavel said.

The rapid reaction forces are able to intervene within two days, he said, adding that the political process must be put in harmony with the military forces' deployment deadlines.

Russia would be able to occupy the Baltics within two days, during which NATO would be incapable of reacting to the situation. NATO would face the question of whether to start war, perhaps nuclear, against Russia over the occupied Baltics, Pavel said.

"From a technical point of view, if I consider how many forces Russia is able to deploy in the Baltics, the size of the Baltic countries and the density of forces on their territories, the Baltics could really be occupied in a couple of days," Pavel told the Czech News Agency later in the day.

"A different question is how effective the deterrence element, represented by NATO's Article 5 and its nuclear component, would be in relation to Russia," Pavel said.

He also criticized shortcomings in NATO's sharing of intelligence information and the absence of NATO's own intelligence network.

Pavel's view was opposed by JiřÃ* Šedivý, Czech ambassador to NATO, who said NATO's intelligence system is of a high quality.

Šedivý said Russia would probably be able to occupy Kyiv, for example, within two days. However, the question is whether it would have sufficient logistical support afterward, he said.

Former Czech Chief-of-Staff JiřÃ* Šedivý, who bears no relation to ambassador cited above, said Russia could not win a war with NATO, and it is aware of this.

Nevertheless, Russia could try to destabilize society, he said, pointing out the demonstrable Russian propaganda that accompanied the previous Czech debate on whether to enable the installation of a U.S. missile defense radar near Prague, and the recent crossing of the Czech Republic by a U.S. military convoy.

He said he would welcome it if the state had an instrument to control the information environment.

[Ryan Ruck]

Russia Tries To Soothe Baltic States Over Independence Review

July 2, 2015

Russia sought on Wednesday to ease concern in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia over plans to review the legality of a 1991 decision formally granting them independence from the Soviet Union.

The Baltic states declared independence in 1990 and 1991, and activists in Lithuania and Latvia were killed in attempts by Soviet forces to quell rebellion. The events have been a matter of particular sensitivity in the three countries since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, another former Soviet republic.

The Russian prosecutor-general's office said on Tuesday it would review the decision by the Soviet Union's State Council, the highest organ of state power, in the last months of the Soviet empire, to recognize the break.

But the Kremlin distanced itself from the move and the prosecutor-general's office presented it as just a formality after a review was requested by two members of the United Russia party which is loyal to President Vladimir Putin.

"We are required by law to consider all requests we receive, regardless of their content. Some of them lack common sense," Marina Gridneva, a spokeswoman for the prosecutor-general's office, told Russian news agencies.

Making clear the review would have no legal implications, she said: "In this case, it is clear the matter has no legal prospects."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "In the Kremlin we were not familiar with this initiative. And I struggle to understand the essence of this initiative."

OUTRAGE IN BALTIC STATES

The Baltic States, now members of the European Union and the NATO defense alliance, had said they were outraged.

"The entire issue is legally absurd," Estonian Foreign Minister Keit Pentus-Rosimannus told Reuters. "It serves as yet another example of the resurgent imperialistic mood that unfortunately exists in Russia."

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said: "Our independence was gained through the blood and sacrifice of the Lithuanian people. No one has the right to threaten it."

Thirteen civilians were killed in January 1991, 11 months before the Soviet Union collapsed, when the Soviet army stormed a Vilnius television tower and the headquarters of the TV station.

Relations between Moscow and the Baltic states, annexed by the Soviet Union during World War Two under a 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact, have long been strained; but tensions have increased since the start of a rebellion in largely Russian-speaking parts of eastern Ukraine.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have Russian-speaking minorities and were unnerved by a statement by Putin last year declaring Moscow had the right to intervene with military force if necessary to protect Russian speakers abroad.