NEO 2004 MN4 - Asteriod 99942 Apophis - Impact with Earth

[American Patriot]

Could lasers zap away dangerous asteroids?

• 19:17 19 March 2007
• NewScientist.com news service
• Kelly Young

Space lasers that zap away rogue asteroids sound like the premise for a 1980s video game. But researchers say the technique could one day be used to detect – and deflect – asteroids found to be barrelling towards Earth.


Previously, researchers have proposed several methods to save Earth from an asteroid impact. These include blowing it up with a nuclear bomb or putting a spacecraft beside it so the craft's gravity could tug the asteroid off course.


But these solutions have drawbacks – the smaller chunks of rock created in the nuclear explosion might still threaten Earth, and the 'gravity tug' would require a relatively massive spaceship with a lot of fuel.


Now, researchers say a lightweight, space-based laser could eliminate these problems gradually altering the trajectory of a threatening asteroid. Though the technology may take two decades or so to mature, "this is something that is doable", says Richard Fork, who heads the Laser Science and Engineering Group at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, US.
Advance warning

One of the great advantages of using lasers is that their beams remain relatively tightly focused over long distances, allowing them to study asteroids from farther away than is currently possible.


Today, observatories such as Arecibo in Puerto Rico bounce radar off asteroids to characterise them and track their orbits. But they can only study objects from a distance equivalent to 0.1 times that between the Earth and the Sun. A laser could examine the features of an asteroid from 10 times as far away.


That could give researchers advance warning of the asteroid's likely composition and exact shape, which would help them figure out how to move it.


The laser itself could also do the moving. If its short pulses were focused on a centimetre-sized spot on the asteroid, they would repeatedly pulverise material, ejecting tiny bits of space rock at 10 kilometres per second. This would function as the asteroid's propellant, pushing it into a different orbit – and safely away from Earth. From several kilometres away, each laser could operate on 25 to 40 kilowatts of power to zap a space rock for several months.
'Act early'

"It really doesn’t take much of a push provided you do that early," Fork told New Scientist. "The key thing is to act early on."


To detect and begin deflecting dangerous asteroids as early as possible, the lasers could be placed on a fleet of eight spacecraft that would patrol the asteroid belt at different locations.


But several major technical hurdles need to be overcome before such a system could be put in place. If the spacecraft was used to characterise asteroids, it would require an antenna about 30 metres across to transmit the laser's light.


If the spacecraft was simply intended to deflect asteroids, it would not need such a large antenna. But engineers would still have to find a way to make existing laboratory lasers – which are heavy – more lightweight to launch them on a spacecraft about the size of a truck.
Missing the 'keyhole'

At the moment, Fork and his team are developing a titanium-sapphire laser capable of pulverising materials with its pulses. They hope their laser could be the 'grandfather' of a laser that might one day come to the aid of humanity.
There is a small chance such a life-saving laser would be needed in 2029, when the asteroid Apophis will make a close swing by Earth. If it passes through a specific region of space just 600 metres across at that time, there is a 1 in 45,000 chance it could hit Earth – perhaps slamming into the Pacific Ocean – on 13 April 2036.
If a laser spacecraft were going to be ready to deflect Apophis before it could reach the 600-metre-wide 'keyhole' in 2029, the government would have to start funding the mission now, says Fork.
"The chances of having it ready for the Apophis push are extremely small unless there was a sudden burst of enthusiasm for doing the laser push," he told New Scientist.
Comets and Asteroids - Learn more about the threat to human civilisation in our special report.

[American Patriot]

NASA can‘t pay for killer asteroid hunt
Staff and agencies
07 March, 2007


By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Mon Mar 5, 8:06 PM ET

WASHINGTON - NASA officials say the space agency is capable of finding nearly all the asteroids that might pose a devastating hit to Earth, but there isn‘t enough money to pay for the task so it won‘t get done.

Congress in 2005 asked NASA to come up with a plan to track most killer asteroids and propose how to deflect the potentially catastrophic ones.

These are asteroids that are bigger than 460 feet in diameter — slightly smaller than the Superdome in New Orleans. They are a threat even if they don‘t hit Earth because if they explode while close enough — an event caused by heating in both the rock and the atmosphere — the devastation from the shockwaves is still immense. The explosion alone could have with the power of 100 million tons of dynamite, enough to devastate an entire state, such as Maryland, they said.

NASA needs to do more to locate other smaller, but still potentially dangerous space bodies. While an Italian observatory is doing some work, the United States is the only government with an asteroid-tracking program, NASA said.

A cheaper option would be to simply piggyback on other agencies‘ telescopes, a cost of about $300 million, also rejected, Johnson said.

Earth got a scare in 2004, when initial readings suggested an 885-foot asteroid called 99942 Apophis seemed to have a chance of hitting Earth in 2029. But more observations showed that wouldn‘t happen. Scientists say there is a 1-in-45,000 chance that it could hit in 2036.

John Logsdon, space policy director at George Washington University, said a stepped-up search for such asteroids is needed.

___

NASA‘s Near Earth Object Web site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/

Planetary Defense Conference: http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/

By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Mon Mar 5, 8:06 PM ET

WASHINGTON - NASA officials say the space agency is capable of finding nearly all the asteroids that might pose a devastating hit to Earth, but there isn‘t enough money to pay for the task so it won‘t get done.

Congress in 2005 asked NASA to come up with a plan to track most killer asteroids and propose how to deflect the potentially catastrophic ones.

These are asteroids that are bigger than 460 feet in diameter — slightly smaller than the Superdome in New Orleans. They are a threat even if they don‘t hit Earth because if they explode while close enough — an event caused by heating in both the rock and the atmosphere — the devastation from the shockwaves is still immense. The explosion alone could have with the power of 100 million tons of dynamite, enough to devastate an entire state, such as Maryland, they said.

NASA needs to do more to locate other smaller, but still potentially dangerous space bodies. While an Italian observatory is doing some work, the United States is the only government with an asteroid-tracking program, NASA said.

A cheaper option would be to simply piggyback on other agencies‘ telescopes, a cost of about $300 million, also rejected, Johnson said.

Earth got a scare in 2004, when initial readings suggested an 885-foot asteroid called 99942 Apophis seemed to have a chance of hitting Earth in 2029. But more observations showed that wouldn‘t happen. Scientists say there is a 1-in-45,000 chance that it could hit in 2036.

John Logsdon, space policy director at George Washington University, said a stepped-up search for such asteroids is needed.

___

NASA‘s Near Earth Object Web site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/

Planetary Defense Conference: http://www.aero.org/conferences/planetarydefense/

[American Patriot]

8 40 am

Giant asteroid raises questions about NASA's resources
Updated: 3/27/2007 5:00 AM
http://news10now.com/content/all_new...99786&SecID=83
By: Adam Balkin


Straight out of movies like "Armageddon" or "Deep Impact," an asteroid named "Apophis" is coming dangerously close to earth and could strike on April 13th, in 2036. Eerily enough, that's Friday the 13th.

"When it does hit, it generates a blast that is many, many, many gigatons, not megatons, so it's thousands or millions of times worse than Hiroshima," says American Museum of Natural History astrophysics curator Michael Shara.


The chances it'll hit are anywhere from one in a thousand to one in several thousand, but scientists say the effects wouldn't be nearly as catastrophic as the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.
"The most likely target is several thousand miles off the coast of California and so what that'd do is just create a five-mile wide crater in the water," says Jennifer Bogo of Popular Mechanics Magazine. "Now, when all that water collapses back into the crater it'd send 50-foot waves barraging the coast of California for an hour, so it's definitely not extinction-causing but definitely not good for California."

		WATCH THE VIDEO
	Giant asteroid headed for earth in 2036 raises questions about NASA's resources Straight out of movies like "Armageddon" or "Deep Impact," an asteroid named "Apophis" is coming dangerously close to earth and could strike on April 13th, in 2036. Eerily enough, that's Friday the 13th.

Right now NASA is working on plans to deflect the giant rock and though trying to blow it up, like in the movies, is a possibility, the more likely plan is much more tame.


"One of the ways of deflecting it is by planting a large space craft right next to it, which will slowly gravitationally deflect it from its path. Just change its speed by a couple of seconds over the course of a couple of decades and you can get it to miss."


And even though Apophis is now on our collective radar, NASA just released a report to Congress that says it has neither the budget nor the equipment to properly search the skies for all sorts of similar objects like Apophis that may also be headed our way
NASA is tracking about 75 percent of the large asteroids near us bigger than a kilometer. It's the smaller ones that have greater potential of slipping through.


"There are a lot more asteroids that pass reasonably close to earth's orbit that are greater than 150 yards in diameter," says Bogo. "So there about 100,000 of those and we've only detected about 4,000."


"You've got to look for years and in a very systematic fashion," says Shara. "The cost is not trivial, we're talking two, three, four hundred million dollars, but spaced over ten or 20 years."


Or as Popular Mechanics is quick to point out, about the same it cost to make those two Hollywood blockbusters that, unfortunately, may've come pretty darn close to predicting the future.

[American Patriot]

Press Release


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 26, 2008
CONTACT:
Susan Lendroth
Voice: (626) 793-5100
Fax: (626) 793-5528
Email: tps@planetary.org
Planetary Society Names Winners of $50,000 Asteroid Tagging Competition

Pasadena, CA, —How do you tag and track an asteroid that might be on a collision course with Earth? The first place winners of The Planetary Society's $50,000 Apophis Mission Design Competition presented their innovative solutions at a press conference today in Pasadena, California.
First place went to the team led by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. of Atlanta, Georgia in conjunction with SpaceDev, Inc., Poway, California for their mission, entitled Foresight. Mark G. Schaffer served as Principal Investigator. The Foresight team takes home $25,000 in prize money.


The Georgia Institute of Technology, also coincidentally in Atlanta, Georgia, took first place in the student category, winning $5,000. Jonathan Sharma, a student in the Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, was Principal Investigator for a mission design entitled Pharos.


”We are very happy that this competition inspired innovative designs to solve an important problem that could affect life on Earth—as the dinosaurs learned the hard way,” said Planetary Society Director of Projects Bruce Betts. “We hope the winning entries will catalyze the world’s space agencies to move ahead with designs and missions to protect Earth from potentially dangerous asteroids and comets.”


The Apophis Mission Design Competition invited participants to compete for $50,000 in prizes by designing a mission to rendezvous with and "tag" a potentially dangerous near-Earth asteroid. Tagging would allow scientists to track an asteroid accurately enough to determine whether it will impact Earth, thus helping governments decide whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit.



NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) co-sponsored The Planetary Society’s competition and will review the best mission designs offered. The winning designs will also be presented by The Planetary Society to other world space agencies.


The near-Earth asteroid, Apophis, was used as the target for the mission design because it will come closer to Earth in 2029 than the orbit of our geostationary satellites. (That’s close enough to be visible to the naked eye.) If it passes through a small “keyhole” as it travels by Earth, its trajectory could be diverted so that it will impact Earth in 2036. Current estimates do rate the probability of such an impact as very low.


To keep mission costs low, the winning design, Foresight, proposes a simple orbiter with only two instruments and a radio beacon at a cost of $137.2 million. The spacecraft would launch aboard a Minotaur IV, leaving Earth sometime between 2012 and 2014, to arrive at Apophis five to ten months later. It would then rendezvous with, observe, and track the asteroid.


Foresight would orbit the asteroid to gather data with a multi-spectral imager for one month. It would then leave orbit and fly in formation with Apophis around the Sun at a range of two kilometers (1.2 miles). The spacecraft would use laser ranging to the asteroid and radio tracking from Earth for ten months to accurately determine the asteroid’s orbit and how it might change.


Pharos, the winning student entry, would be an orbiter with four science instruments (a multi-spectral imager, near-infrared spectrometer, laser rangefinder, and magnetometer) that would rendezvous with and track Apophis. Earth-based tracking of the spacecraft would then allow precise tracking of the asteroid. The Pharos spacecraft would also carry four instrumented probes that it would launch individually over the course of two weeks. Accelerometers and temperature sensors on the probes would measure the seismic effects of successive probe impacts, a creative way to explore the interior structure and dynamics of the asteroid.


The competition received 37 mission proposals from 20 countries on 6 continents. If Earth were ever going to mount a defense against a dangerous asteroid, international cooperation would be vital in protecting the planet. That spirit of international cooperation was exemplified by the second and third place teams.


Second place, for $10.000, went to a European team led by Deimos Space S.L. of Madrid, Spain, in cooperation with EADS Astrium, Friedrichshafen, Germany; University of Stuttgart, Germany; and Universitá di Pisa, Italy. Juan L. Cano was Principal Investigator.
Another European team took home $5,000 for third place. Their team lead was EADS Astrium Ltd, United Kingdom, in conjunction with EADS Astrium SAS, France; IASF-Roma, INAF, Rome, Italy; Open University, UK; Rheinisches Institut für Umweltforschung, Germany; Royal Observatory of Belgium; and Telespazio, Italy. The Principal Investigator was Paolo D'Arrigo.


Two teams tied for second place in the Student Category: Monash University, Clayton Campus, Australia, with Dilani Kahawala as Principal Investigator; and University of Michigan, with Jeremy Hollander as Principal Investigator. Each second place team won $2,000. A team from Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, under the leadership of Peter Weiss, received an honorable mention and $1,000 for the most innovative student proposal.


The Apophis Mission Design Competition is part of the Society's year-long focus on Target Earth to mark the 100th anniversary of the Tunguska event, when an exploding asteroid or comet leveled 2,000 square kilometers of Siberian forest in June1908. Target Earth will focus on a variety of Near-Earth Object (NEO) projects supported by The Planetary Society, which include the Apophis Mission Design Competition, the Gene Shoemaker Near Earth Object Grants, science and exploration mission advocacy, and a one-hour HD TV “Daily Planet” special on asteroids being produced by Discovery Canada.


The $50,000 in prize money was contributed by The Planetary Society's Chairman of the Board, Dan Geraci. Additional funding to run the competition was provided by Planetary Society members around the world.



Today's press conference at Planetary Society headquarters in Pasadena featured Geraci, Betts, Planetary Society Executive Director Louis Friedman, and representatives of both first place teams.


In addition to NASA and ESA, The Planetary Society conducted the Apophis Mission Design Competition in cooperation with the Association of Space Explorers (ASE), the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and the Universities Space Research Association (USRA). The Society will present the winning entries to the world's major space agencies, and the findings of the competition will be presented at relevant scientific and engineering conferences.


Since The Planetary Society's inception in 1980, the organization has donated well over a quarter million dollars to asteroid research, about half of which was awarded through Gene Shoemaker Near-Earth Object Grants to amateur observers, observers in developing countries, and professional astronomers around the world.

About the Planetary Society

The Planetary Society has inspired millions of people to explore other worlds and seek other life. Today, its international membership makes the non-governmental Planetary Society the largest space interest group in the world. Carl Sagan, Bruce Murray and Louis Friedman founded The Planetary Society in 1980.
The Planetary Society
65 N. Catalina Avenue
Pasadena, CA 91106-2301 USA
Web: www.planetary.org
Voice: (626) 793-5100
Fax: (626) 793-5528
Email: tps@planetary.org

#####

[Brian Baldwin]

Seems to me that unless it's a planet killer, we should let nature take it's course. Just my opinion.

[American Patriot]

Brian.. note the name of the thread... 2004 MN4, the name of the asteroid is "Apophis".

It IS a potential planet killer.

This is the one that will be passing us in 2036 or so, and if it passes JUST right, it will come back and slam into Earth a few years later. (like 3 or 4 if I remember right).

EVERYONE is paying CLOSE attention to this one.

[PsycoJoe]

Apophis was the Egyptian god of the night, so it would be ironically fitting if it did hit.

(The person who discovered it was a Stargate SG-1 fan.)

[American Patriot]

A Pain in the Asteroid

http://readswc.wordpress.com/2008/03...roids-and-you/

Published March 24, 2008 Nora , Paranora Behavior , Rants

Tags: asteroids hitting the earth


Aside from my awful blog about the word “cheddar,” I see a pattern of paranoia and anxiety in my writing. In that same tradition, I would like to rant about another of my irrational fears: asteroids.


My partner, Mitchell, was kind enough to patronize me when I mentioned the thought that asteroids were crazy scary. I asked him if he ever feared being obliterated by what science-y circles now refer to as “dwarf planets.” He said, “No way. Two words–Bruce Willis.”


Glad to know he puts his faith in the hands of Hollywood. I, on the other hand, chose SPACE.com to waylay my fears. That was my first mistake. Hoping for the site to make me feel like a silly, ignorant girl, my visit did the exact opposite.


“Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That’s up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.”

97.8 percent chance the rock will miss Earth, eh? I think the birth control pill has better odds than that, and women still manage to get knocked up.

I actually had to laugh when I read the opening paragraph of the SPACE.com article, “Experts: Slim Chance Asteroids Hitting Earth But More Study Needed.” Since I can’t say it any better than Paul Recer, I invite you to join in on the alarmist fun with me:

“WASHINGTON (AP) _ It wouldn’t take a very big rock falling from space to cause widespread damage and death on the Earth. The chances of that happening are very remote _ perhaps once in thousands of years _ but the destruction would be so extreme that experts say humanity needs to find ways to defend itself.”

I’d like my A-list Hollywood actor now, please.

This begs the question: how the hell are we supposed to defend ourselves from renegade space rocks? After all, the article states that scientists can only estimate the odds of an event–they can’t actually predict it. And even as the article scoffs at movies, like the illustrious Armageddon, it recognizes that scientists’ approaches to deflecting oncoming asteroids or “reshaping” their orbits, are not too dissimilar to those of the movies.

Instead of blowing the fucker up, like Bruce and company, experts seem to believe the most effective method would be to use small rockets or other devices to change the asteroids orbit. Forgive me if I’m not reassured, NASA. While experts believe that the annoy the asteroid into submission with small rockets strategy should do the trick, Recer admits that “before such engineering techniques can be developed, the experts said they need to know more about the asteroids.“

That whole policy seems distinctly unamerican to me. I think we know enough: there’s an asteroid out there that needs blowing up. Why wait? Besides, according to my research, asteroid mining is the industry of the future. But that is a rant for another day. I’m still hung up on the fact that “about a sixth of the discovered large asteroids have moons which complicates any effort to change their orbital paths.”
These asteroids come with an entourage, a posse. What hope do we possibly have of saving ourselves? It’s another one of those paranoid fears my friends like to tease me about and that I recognize is completely out of my control. I can avoid clowns, scary movies and high-voltage. I cannot avoid Earth. If the big one really is coming and it’s gonna hit on April 13, 2029, I’ll be having an Asteroid Party. You’re all invited. I’ll be the one hammered on box o’ wine, wailing that we should have asked Bruce to save us before it was too late.

Articles:

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html
http://www.space.com/spacewatch/asteroid_020907.html

[American Patriot]

Experts: Slim Chance Asteroids Hitting Earth But More Study Needed By Paul Recer Associated Press posted: 09:45 am ET 07 September 2002

WASHINGTON (AP) _ It wouldn't take a very big rock falling from space to cause widespread damage and death on the Earth. The chances of that happening are very remote _ perhaps once in thousands of years _ but the destruction would be so extreme that experts say humanity needs to find ways to defend itself.

At a NASA-sponsored scientific conference on the hazards of comets and asteroids smashing into the Earth, experts on Friday estimated that the planet will probably be hit about once per 1,000 years by a space rock big enough to release about 10 megatons of explosive energy.
Such a rock, estimated at about 180 feet across, scorched through the atmosphere over Tunguska in Siberia in 1908 and flattened trees across 800 square miles of forest land. No crater was found and experts believe the damage came from atmospheric shock.

Bigger space rocks, that would cause more damage, would hit the Earth even more rarely.
An object of about 1,000 feet ``would flatten everything in an area the size of New Jersey and kill everybody there,'' said Erik Asphaug of the University of California, Santa Cruz. Nobody knows, he said, what the planetwide effects would be, but debris thrown into the atmosphere could diminish sunlight, perhaps affecting agriculture for months.

If such a rock hit the ocean, it could trigger tsunamis, giant waves hundreds of feet high, that could roll through and destroy coastal cities.

A planet-killer asteroid, one big enough to destroy whole species on Earth, would be rarest of all. The last came 65 million years ago when a six-mile wide rock wiped out the dinosaurs and about 70 percent of all species.

Although scientists can estimate the odds of an impact, they can't really estimate precisely when it could happen.

``We don't know when these accidents will occur,'' said Duncan Steel of the University of Salford in England. ``There could be one sometime in the next 100 years. We don't know.''

Asphaug, the organizer of the meeting, said that scientists recognized the risk to the planet of asteroids and comets in the last few decades and only now are beginning to shape proposals that would protect the planet.

``This is the only major natural hazard which can, in principle, be made predictable and even eliminated if we find the dangerous ones and learn how to modify their orbits over time,'' he said.
NASA, under a congressional mandate, started an organized effort in 1998 to find and plot the orbital paths of every Near Earth Asteroid (NEO) larger than six-tenths of a mile across. Six international observatories are now scanning the skies. More than 600 such NEOS have been found, out of an estimated 1,000. None represents a threat.

The astronomy community is now proposing a special observatory, called the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, that would be able to detect much smaller asteroids. It's estimated that the proposed instrument, with a 27.5-foot primary mirror, would be able to find and plot the path of space rocks down to a diameter of 820 feet.

While the NEO search continues, experts are also studying ways to prevent any Earth-bound object from impacting the planet.

It's believed that most asteroids that pose a catastrophic danger will be spotted decades before they would endanger the Earth. This makes it theoretically possible to deflect the speeding space rock and send it into a new, safer direction.

Unlike Hollywood films that have had crews blowing up such asteroids, Asphaug and other experts believe the most promising method of deflection will to slowly, over decades, change the path of the asteroid using small rockets or other devices. Some have suggested that solar concentrators placed precisely on an asteroid could heat and vaporize enough rocky material to provide a thrust that would reshape the object's orbit to spare the Earth.

But before such engineering techniques can be developed, the experts said they need to know more about the asteroids.

Most of the space objects, astronomers believe, are actually aggregates of rock and dust, held loosely together by gravity. About a sixth of the discovered large asteroids have moons which complicates any effort to change their orbital paths.

The best way to learn about asteroids is to send out robot spacecraft, such as the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous mission that landed on the asteroid Eros. Japan in December launches a mission designed to land on an asteroid and return samples to Earth.

Asphaug said a committee organized at the workshop is now drawing a plan that would find and analyze dangerous asteroids and then devise a way to protect the Earth.

[American Patriot]

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 24 December 2004 09:58 am ET

Original story below
Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.


Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

---

Update, Dec. 24, 10:19 p.m. ET: An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029 was upgraded to an unprecedented level of risk Friday, Dec. 24. Scientists still stress, however, that further observations will likely show the space rock won't be on a collision course with the planet.


The risk rating for asteroid 2004 MN4 was raised Friday by NASA and a separate group of researchers in Italy.


The asteroid's risk rating a possible impact scenario on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating -- never before issued -- is reserved for "events meriting concern."


The Dec. 24 update from NASA stated:


"2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6 percent, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60-to-1, meaning that there is a better than 98 percent chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029."


With a half-dozen or so other asteroid discoveries dating back to 1997, scientists had announced long odds of an impact -- generating frightening headlines in some cases -- only to announce within hours or days that the impact chances had been reduced to zero by further observations. Experts have said repeatedly that they are concerned about alarming the public before enough data is gathered to project an asteroid's path accurately.


Asteroid 2004 MN4 is an unusual case in that follow-up observations have caused the risk assessment to climb -- from Torino level 2 to 4 -- rather than fall.

---

An edited version of the 2004 MN4 story originally posted on SPACE.com at 9:58 a.m. ET on Dec. 24:

Scientists said Thursday that a recently discovered asteroid has a chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029, but that further observations would likely rule out the impact scenario.


The asteroid is named 2004 MN4. It was discovered in June and spotted again this month. It is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide.


That's bigger than the space rock that carved meteor crater in Arizona, and bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 hit the Earth, it would do considerable localized or regional damage. It would not cause damage on a global scale.


Scientists stressed, however, that the rock would likely miss the planet.

Dread Factor: Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids Asteroid Scare Prompts NASA to Formalize Response

A statement was released by NASA asteroid experts Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas.


"The odds of impact, presently around 1-in-300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern," the scientists said. "These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world."


The scientists project an asteroid's future travels based on observations of its current orbit around the Sun. On computer models, the future orbits are not lines but rather windows of possibility. The orbit projections for 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029 cover a wide swath of space that includes the location where Earth will be. Additional observations will allow refined orbit forecasts -- more like a line instead of a window.


The asteroid will be easily observable in coming months, so scientists expect to figure out its path.
Most asteroids circle the Sun in a belt between Mars and Jupiter. But some get gravitationally booted toward the inner solar system.


The 323-day orbit of 2004 MN4 lies mostly within the orbit of Earth. The asteroid approaches the Sun almost as close as the orbit of Venus. It crosses near the Earth's orbit twice on each of its passages about the Sun.


2004 MN4 was discovered on June 19 by Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey. It was rediscovered on Dec. 18 from Australia by Gordon Garradd of the Siding Spring Survey. More than three dozen observations have been made, with more expected to roll in from other observatories this week.


It has been a busy stretch for asteroid scientists. Earlier this week, researchers announced that a small space rock had zoomed past Earth closer than the orbits of some satellites.

[American Patriot]

Just a few updates on "Apophis".

the chances of it hitting Earth on 3 April 2029 have increased rather dramatically from previous predictions.

Instead of one-in-thousands... it's 1-in-45.

That's much better odds than getting hit by lightning, crashing in an airplane, getting hit by a bus or winning the lotter.

Just to prove this, read the following charts

http://www.google.com/coop/intl/en/i..._watermark.gif) no-repeat scroll left center; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" name="q" size="25" type="text">

The odds of dying from…

The table below was prepared in response to frequent inquiries asking questions such as, "What are the odds of being killed by lightning?" or "What are the chances of dying in a plane crash?"


The odds given below are statistical averages over the whole U.S. population and do not necessarily reflect the chances of death for a particular person from a particular external cause. Any individual’s odds of dying from various external causes are affected by the activities in which they participate, where they live and drive, what kind of work they do, and other factors.


The table has four columns. The first column gives the manner of injury such as motor-vehicle crash, fall, fire, etc. The second column gives the total number of deaths nationwide due to the manner of injury in 2005 (the latest year for which data are available). The third column gives the odds of dying in one year due to the manner of injury. The fourth column gives the lifetime odds of dying from the manner of injury.


Statements about the odds or chances of dying from a given cause of death may be made as follows:

• The odds of dying from (manner of injury) in 2005 were 1 in (value given in the one-year odds column).
• The life-time odds of dying from (manner of injury) for a person born in 2005 were 1 in (value given in the lifetime odds column).

For example, referring to the first line of the table below:

• The odds of dying from an injury in 2005 were 1 in 1,677.
• The lifetime odds of dying from an injury for a person born in 2005 were 1 in 22.

Note: Odds based on less than 20 deaths are likely to be unstable from year to year – use with caution.


Source: National Safety Council estimates based on data from National Center for Health Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau. Deaths are classified on the basis of the Tenth Revision of the World Health Organization’s "The International Classification of Diseases" (ICD). Numbers following titles refer to External Cause of Morbidity and Mortality classifications in ICD-10. One year odds are approximated by dividing the 2005 population (295,895,897) by the number of deaths. Lifetime odds are approximated by dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2005 (77.9 years).

Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2005
Type of Accident or Manner of Injury				Deaths	One Year Odds	Lifetime Odds
All External Causes of Mortality, V01-Y89, *U01 a , *U03 a				176,406	1,677	22
	Deaths Due to Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, V01-X59, Y85-Y86			117,809	2,512	32
		Transport Accidents, V01-V99, Y85		48,441	6,108	78
		Motor-Vehicle Accidents, V02-V04, V09.0, V12-V14, V19.0-V19.2, V19.4-V19.6, V20-		43,508	6,801	87
			V79, V80.3-V80.5, V81.0-V81.1, V82.0-V82.1, V83-V86, V87.0-V87.8, V88.0-V88.8,
			V89.0, V89.2
		Pedestrian, V01-V09		6,074	48,715	625
		Pedalcyclist, V10-V19		927	319,197	4,098
		Motorcycle rider, V20-V29		4,387	67,448	866
		Occupant of three-wheeled motor vehicle, V30-V39		5	59,179,179	759,681
		Car occupant, V40-V49		14,584	20,289	260
		Occupant of pick-up truck or van, V50-V59		3,797	77,929	1,000
		Occupant of heavy transport vehicle, V60-V69		450	657,546	8,441
		Bus occupant, V70-V79		59	5,015,185	64,380
		Animal rider or occupant of animal-drawn vehicle, V80		120	2,465,799	31,653
		Occupant of railway train or railway vehicle, V81		33	8,966,542	115,103
		Occupant of streetcar, V82		0	---	---
		Other and unspecified land transport accidents, V83-V89		16,148	18,324	235
			Occupant of special industrial vehicle, V83	19	15,573,468	199,916
			Occupant of special agricultural vehicle, V84	154	1,921,402	24,665
			Occupant of special construction vehicle, V85	33	8,966,542	115,103
			Occupant of all-terrain or other off-road motor vehicle, V86	1,040	284,515	3,652
			Other and unspecified person, V87-V89	14,902	19,856	255
		Water transport accidents, V90-V94		523	565,767	7,263
			Drowning, V90, V92	394	751,005	9,641
			Other and unspecified injuries, V91, V93-V94	129	2,293,767	29,445
		Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97		590	501,518	6,438
		Other and unspecified transport accidents and sequelae, V98-V99, Y85		744	397,710	5,105
			Other specified transport accidents, V98	2	147,947,949	1,899,203
			Unspecified transport accident, V99	18	16,438,661	211,023
		Nontransport Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries, W00-X59, Y86		69,368	4,266	55
		Falls, W00-W19		19,656	15,054	193
			Fall on same level from slipping, tripping, and stumbling, W01	698	423,920	5,442
			Other fall on same level, W00, W02-W03, W18	5,224	56,642	727
			Fall involving bed, chair, other furniture, W06-W08	899	329,139	4,225
			Fall on and from stairs and steps, W10	1,690	175,086	2,248
			Fall on and from ladder or scaffolding, W11-W12	477	620,327	7,963
			Fall from out of or through building or structure, W13	533	555,152	7,126
			Other fall from one level to another, W09, W14-W17	694	426,363	5,473
			Other and unspecified fall, W04-W05, W19	9,441	31,342	402
		Exposure to inanimate mechanical forces, W20-W49		2,845	104,006	1,335
			Struck by or striking against object, W20-W22	854	346,482	4,448
			Caught between objects, W23	103	2,872,776	36,878
			Contact with machinery, W24, W30-W31	755	391,915	5,031
			Contact with sharp objects, W25-W29	85	3,481,128	44,687
			Firearms discharge, W32-W34	789	375,026	4,814
			Explosion and rupture of pressurized devices, W35-W38	26	11,380,611	146,093
			Fireworks discharge, W39	4	73,973,974	949,602
			Explosion of other materials, W40	147	2,012,897	25,840
			Foreign body entering through skin or natural orifice, W44-W45	37	7,997,186	102,660
			Other and unspecified inanimate mechanical forces, W41-W43, W49	45	6,575,464	84,409
		Exposure to animate mechanical forces, W50-W64		161	1,837,863	23,593
			Struck by or against another person, W50-W52	26	11,380,611	146,093
			Bitten or struck by dog, W54	33	8,966,542	115,103
			Bitten or struck by other mammals, W53, W55	80	3,698,699	47,480
			Bitten or stung by nonvenomous insect and other arthropods, W57	9	32,877,322	422,045
			Bitten or crushed by other reptiles, W59	0	---	---
			Other and unspecified animate mechanical forces, W56, W58, W60, W64	13	22,761,223	292,185
		Accidental drowning and submersion, W65-W74		3,582	82,606	1,060
			Drowning and submersion while in or falling into bath-tub, W65-W66	344	860,162	11,042
			Drowning and submersion while in or falling into swimming-pool, W67-W68	607	487,473	6,258
			Drowning and submersion while in or falling into natural water, W69-W70	1,603	184,589	2,370
			Other and unspecified drowning and submersion, W73-W74	1,028	287,836	3,695
		Other accidental threats to breathing, W75-W84		5,900	50,152	644
			Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed, W75	573	516,398	6,629
			Other accidental hanging and strangulation, W76	274	1,079,912	13,863
			Threat to breathing due to cave-in, falling earth and other substances, W77	50	5,917,918	75,968
			Inhalation of gastric contents, W78	333	888,576	11,407
			Inhalation and ingestion of food causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W79	864	342,472	4,396
			Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract, W80	3,189	92,786	1,191
			Confined to or trapped in a low-oxygen environment, W81	14	21,135,421	271,315
			Other and unspecified threats to breathing, W83-W84	603	490,706	6,299
		Exposure to electric current, radiation, temperature, and pressure, W85-W99		420	704,514	9,044
			Electric transmission lines, W85	105	2,818,056	36,175
			Other and unspecified electric current, W86-W87	293	1,009,884	12,964
			Radiation, W88-W91	0	---	---
			Excessive heat or cold of man-made origin, W92-W93	13	22,761,223	292,185
			High and low air pressure and changes in air pressure, W94	9	32,877,322	422,045
			Other and unspecified man-made environmental factors, W99	0	---	---
		Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, X00-X09		3,197	92,554	1,188
			Uncontrolled fire in building or structure, X00	2,617	113,067	1,451
			Uncontrolled fire not in building or structure, X01	52	5,690,306	73,046
			Controlled fire in building or structure, X02	28	10,567,711	135,657
			Controlled fire not in building or structure, X03	33	8,966,542	115,103
			Ignition of highly flammable material, X04	63	4,696,760	60,292
			Ignition or melting of nightwear, X05	6	49,315,983	633,068
			Ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel, X06	97	3,050,473	39,159
			Other and unspecified smoke fire and flames, X08-X09	301	983,043	12,619
		Contact with heat and hot substances, X10-X19		102	2,900,940	37,239
			Contact with hot tap-water, X11	43	6,881,300	88,335
			Other and unspecified heat and hot substances, X10, X12-X19	59	5,015,185	64,380
		Contact with venomous animals and plants, X20-X29		105	2,818,056	36,175
			Contact with venomous snakes and lizards, X20	7	42,270,842	542,630
			Contact with venomous spiders, X21	10	29,589,590	379,841
			Contact with hornets, wasps and bees, X23	82	3,608,487	46,322
			Contact with other and unspecified venomous animal or plant, X22, X24-X29	6	49,315,983	633,068
		Exposure to forces of nature, X30-X39		2,179	135,794	1,743
			Exposure to excessive natural heat, X30	466	634,970	8,151
			Exposure to excessive natural cold, X31	700	422,708	5,426
			Lightning, X33	48	6,164,498	79,133
			Earthquake and other earth movements, X34-X36	37	7,997,186	102,660
			Cataclysmic storm, X37	874	338,554	4,346
			Flood, X38	12	24,657,991	316,534
			Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature, X32, X39	42	7,045,140	90,438
		Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious substances, X40-X49		23,618	12,528	161
			Nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics, and antirheumatics, X40	226	1,309,274	16,807
			Antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, antiparkinsonism, and psychotropic drugs n.e.c., X41	1,496	197,791	2,539
			Narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens] n.e.c., X42	11,050	26,778	344
			Other and unspecified drugs, medicaments, and biologicals, X43-X44	9,676	30,580	393
			Alcohol, X45	346	855,190	10,978
			Gases and vapours, X46-X47	703	420,905	5,403
			Other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances, X48-X49	121	2,445,421	31,392
		Overexertion, travel and privation, X50-X57		32	9,246,747	118,700
		Accidental exposure to other and unspecified factors and sequelae, X58-X59, Y86		7,571	39,083	502
	Intentional self-harm, X60-X84, Y87.0, *U03 a			32,637	9,066	116
		Intentional self-poisoning, X60-X69		5,744	51,514	661
		Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, X70		7,248	40,824	524
		Intentional self-harm by firearm, X72-X74		17,002	17,404	223
		Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X71, X75-X84, Y87.0, *U03 a		2,643	111,955	1,437
	Assault, X85-Y09, Y87.1, *U01 a			18,124	16,326	210
		Assault by firearm, X93-X95		12,352	23,955	308
		Assault by sharp object, X99		2,097	141,104	1,811
		Other and unspecified means and sequelae, X85-X92, X96-X98, Y00-Y09, Y87.1, *U01 a		3,675	80,516	1,034
	Event of undetermined intent, Y10-Y34, Y87.2, Y89.9			4,742	62,399	801
		Poisoning, Y10-Y19		3,240	91,326	1,172
		Hanging, strangulation, and suffocation, Y20		139	2,128,747	27,327
		Drowning and submersion, Y21		242	1,222,710	15,696
		Firearm discharge, Y22-Y24		221	1,338,895	17,187
		Exposure to smoke, fire, and flames, Y26		120	2,465,799	31,653
		Falling, jumping, or pushed from a high place, Y30		69	4,288,346	55,049
		Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y25, Y27-Y29, Y31-Y34,Y87.2, Y89.9		711	416,169	5,342
	Legal intervention, Y35, Y89.0			414	714,724	9,175
		Legal intervention involving firearm discharge, Y35.0		330	896,654	11,510
		Legal execution, Y35.5		54	5,479,554	70,341
		Other and unspecified means and sequelae, Y35.1-Y35.4, Y35.6-Y35.7, Y89.0		30	9,863,197	126,614
	Operations of war and sequelae, Y36, Y89.1			27	10,959,107	140,682
	Complications of medical and surgical care and sequelae, Y40-Y84, Y88.0-Y88.3			2,653	111,533	1,432
a The manner of injury for ICD-10 code *U01 is Assault by Terrorism; for code *U03 it is Intentional Self-Harm by Terrorism.

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[MagnetMan]

Rick, do you have a link to the story showing that the prediction is now 1-in-45? I can't see anything recent that has that high of a prediction.

[American Patriot]

Rick, do you have a link to the story showing that the prediction is now 1-in-45? I can't see anything recent that has that high of a prediction.

Here:

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 24 December 2004 09:58 am ET

Original story below
Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom....html#original

[American Patriot]

Reality Check

Rick Donaldson’s “Reality Check” Blog and Podcast.
Wed, 9 April 2008 / 1242

The Asteroid Threat - 2004 MN4 - Apophis

Filed under: Astronomy, The Asteroid Threat, Missile Defence
SPACE.com — Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched ‘Very Carefully’

This article:

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched ‘Very Carefully’
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 24 December 2004
09:58 am ET

States that the risk of impact from 2004 MN4, an asteroid known as “Apophis” now has an increased chance of hitting Earth, and is now roughly 1-in-45.

Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That’s up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.

Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

A 97.8 percent chance of missing the Earth is good news. The odds of it hitting are the bad news. Basically, you have a 1-in-300,000 chance of being hit by lightning, and yet roughly 67 people are killed each year by lightning, and another 300 are seriously injured.


Lightning strikes and kills many more people in any given year than, for example tornadoes do, however, in the last couple of years many people have been killed by tornadoes. In 2008, so far, at least 54 people have been killed by tornadoes to day (this number might be higher, I couldn’t find good statistics on this yet).


The article goes on to say the following:

The asteroid’s risk rating a possible impact scenario on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating — never before issued — is reserved for “events meriting concern.”

For those of you unfamiliar with the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, it is a 0-10 rating scale, with 4 being the top of the “yellow scale”. Basically it means “be on alert”. The next number up, 5 is in the orange scale.


Scientists have yet to make a determination that this is a ‘dangerous’ interaction, and yet, they will say in “scientific terms” that if this particular asteroid hits a certain “space keyhole” the asteroid has a 100% chance of hitting us on the next go-around, about 2036.


Essentially, this asteroid is a smaller rock, and probably won’t cause a global disaster, but will certainly “rock the planet” - to coin a phrase. Localized damage could be significant in the region struck. At this point, I don’t know of anyone that has publicly accomplished the calculations on exact time it “could strike” or where, simply because most are writing this off as a “near miss”.


At this point, I won’t predict anything, since I have not personally run the numbers yet, but I will be doing that within a couple of years as data comes in.


But, I will say this, IF the asteroid hits the “keyhole” it will most definitely be upgraded to an 8 on the Torino scale. My gut feeling is that this will probably happen, but we can’t base predictions of objects affected by gravity on “gut feelings”, and need to stick to science. I’ll leave it at that, for now.


But, I strongly suggest everyone begin learning about the Torino Scale, this asteroid and the possible impact implications for Planet Earth, since you have just about 21 years left to be in a safe location!

[American Patriot]

Just a little update here in case you have missed either my explanation before, or others I've posted.

Revised asteroid scale aids understanding of impact risk

Elizabeth A. Thomson, News Office
April 12, 2005


Astronomers led by an MIT professor have revised the scale used to assess the threat of asteroids and comets colliding with Earth to better communicate those risks with the public.


The overall goal is to provide easy-to-understand information to assuage concerns about a potential doomsday collision with our planet.


The Torino scale, a risk-assessment system similar to the Richter scale used for earthquakes, was adopted by a working group of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in 1999 at a meeting in Torino, Italy. On the scale, zero means virtually no chance of collision, while 10 means certain global catastrophe.


"The idea was to create a simple system conveying clear, consistent information about near-Earth objects [NEOs]," or asteroids and comets that appear to be heading toward the planet, said Richard Binzel, a professor in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and the creator of the scale.


Some critics, however, said that the original Torino scale was actually scaring people, "the opposite of what was intended," said Binzel. Hence the revisions.


"For a newly discovered NEO, the revised scale still ranks the impact hazard from 0 to 10, and the calculations that determine the hazard level are still exactly the same," Binzel said. The difference is that the wording for each category now better describes the attention or response merited for each.


For example, in the original scale NEOs of level 2-4 were described as "meriting concern." The revised scale describes objects with those rankings as "meriting attention by astronomers"--not necessarily the public.


Equally important in the revisions, says Binzel, "is the emphasis on how continued tracking of an object is almost always likely to reduce the hazard level to 0, once sufficient data are obtained." The general process of classifying NEO hazards is roughly analogous to hurricane forecasting. Predictions of a storm's path are updated as more and more tracking data are collected.


According to Dr. Donald K. Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office, "The revisions in the Torino Scale should go a long way toward assuring the public that while we cannot always immediately rule out Earth impacts for recently discovered near-Earth objects, additional observations will almost certainly allow us to do so."


The highest Torino level ever given an asteroid was a 4 last December, with a 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. And after extended tracking of the asteroid's orbit, it was reclassified to level 1, effectively removing any chance of collision, "the outcome emphasized by level 4 as being most likely," Binzel said.


"It is just a matter of the scale becoming more well known and understood. Just as there is little or no reason for public concern over a magnitude 3 earthquake, there is little cause for public attention for NEO close encounters having low values on the Torino scale." He notes that an object must reach level 8 on the scale before there is a certainty of an impact capable of causing even localized destruction.


The Torino scale was developed because astronomers are spotting more and more NEOs through projects like the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research project at MIT's Lincoln Laboratory. "There's no increase in the number of asteroids out there or how frequently they encounter our planet. What's changed is our awareness of them," Binzel notes.


As a result, astronomers debated whether they should keep potential NEO collisions secret or "be completely open with what we know when we know it," Binzel said. The IAU working group, of which Binzel is secretary, resoundingly decided on the latter.
The revised wording of the scale was published last fall in a chapter of "Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids" (Cambridge University Press). The revisions were undertaken through consultation with astronomers worldwide for nearly a year before being published.


Binzel concludes that "the chance of something hitting the Earth and having a major impact is very unlikely. But although unlikely, it is still not impossible. The only way to be certain of no asteroid impacts in the forecast is to keep looking."
For more information on the revised Torino scale go to:

neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html.


A version of this article appeared in MIT Tech Talk on April 13, 2005 (download PDF).

[American Patriot]

And finally today, just so you can judge for yourselves the CHANGES that have come about in the calculations, from newer and newer observations... this article is from Feb 2007.

That was just over a year ago when the odds were 1 in 45,000 in 2036 (2036 will be the SECOND pass that will be close to us).

Right now, the odds in 2029 are 1-in-45.

If this asteroid hits the "keyhole", it will be a million to 1 shot it will MISS us.

02/19/2007 12:22 PM ID: 60382
Asteroid may Destroy Earth in 2036 - Scientists Ask for U.N. Help
	An asteroid named Apophis has a 1 in 45,000 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2036 and has shaken scientists to ask the UN for help in dealing with such an event. Ex-astronaut, Rusty Schweickart, told an American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in San Francisco "It's not just Apophis we're looking at. Every country is at risk. We need a set of general principles to deal with this issue." The president of Oregon-based Decision Research, a risk analysis organization, told reporters that the said asteroid could take out an entire city or region.
	Source: news.yahoo.com

[American Patriot]

Sorry, can't leave the subject alone.

This is also a year old.... watch the numbers, and watch what this guy says. He's already been contradicted. I'll highlight a few things in colors.

Sky Guy: What are odds of asteroid hitting Earth?



By Thomas R. Webber
Monday, May 21, 2007

What is the likelihood that an asteroid named Apophis will strike Earth in 2029? Initial scientific estimates calculated the odds as 1 in 40.
Want to use this article? Click here for options!







Yikes!


However, scientists later eliminated the possibility of a 2029 strike -- though there is a small
possibility that during the 2029 close encounter, Apophis would travel through what is called a
"gravitational keyhole," a region of space a mere 400 meters (1,312 feet) across that would
alter its trajectory for a strike in 2036.


Current odds: 1 in 45,000.


So how alarmed should we be, and what's the science behind the Earth-asteroid collision
prognosticating?


Nothing to lose, right?


According to my records, during the past two decades, there have been more than 100 kajillion
predictions that the world would come to an end.


In case you haven't noticed, it hasn't.



These claims can lead to some very embarrassing situations, especially to those who told their
bosses exactly how they really felt the day before they thought the world was going to end.


Just imagine how awkward the next day is:


"No, Mr. Fleeberman, ha ha, I have always respected your management style and think your
wife is both lovely and virtuous. Seriously."


Some advice from your ol' Uncle Tom: Don't do anything rash until after the world has ended.


So let's consider this column rumor-control before stories of our planet's alleged doom circulate
further and get more out of control.

But first, some background.


Figuring doomsday odds


In 1998, NASA founded the Spaceguard Survey. Its objective was to find 90 percent of "near
Earth objects" (NEOs) larger than 1 kilometer (3,280 feet) by the year 2008.

Three astronomers working toward that goal -- Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi,
all of the University of Hawaii's Asteroid Survey and the Kitt Peak National Observatory in
Arizona -- discovered a NEO in June 2004. It was given the provisional designation 2004 MN4.



The asteroid, later assigned permanent number 99942, has a diameter of only 250 meters and a
mass of 25 million tons. It was catalogued as part of the Aten Asteroid Group, which all have
orbital radii less than one Earth-sun distance.


This particular interloper crosses Earth's orbital plane twice a year.


Now it gets tricky. Initial observations conducted in December 2004 indicated that there was a
strong possibility (1 in 40) that it would strike Earth in 2029.


However, further observations of Apophis, as it was officially named, eliminated the possibility of
a 2029 terran or lunar strike. There did exist the possibility that in 2029, Apophis would travel
through the gravitational keyhole, altering its trajectory for a strike seven years later.



But by August 2006, it was determined that the keyhole also would likely be missed, and by
October, the odds for a 2036 strike were reduced to 1 in 45,000.



A close encounter


The 2029 flyby will be a close encounter indeed. On Friday, April 13 (really!), Apophis will
actually pass below the altitude of our own geosynchronous satellites (about 22,000 miles) and
will be seen in the early-morning skies of Asia and North Africa.

There will be two more opportunities to track Apophis at close range before 2029, one in 2013
and the other in 2021. After these two flybys, scientists should be able to conclude with better
than 99 percent accuracy whether or not Apophis poses a future threat to Earth.



So why not 100 percent accuracy? One of the complications with small rotating bodies within
the inner solar system is a phenomenon called the Yarkovsky Effect. Here, solar radiation is
absorbed by the object and then re-radiated. Although it is a miniscule pressure, the force due
to re-radiation is persistent and can slowly alter a trajectory.

There are those that feel the threat of Apophis is real enough to justify immediate action and
would like to see a transponder placed on the asteroid so more precise tracking can begin. The
reasoning is that if there is a future threat, there would be more time to initiate a deflection
mission.


One of these supporters is none other than former Apollo astronaut Russell Schweickart, who
wrote a letter to NASA Administrator Michael Griffin in June 2005 expressing his concern.


However, there are no plans at this time to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a mission to
Apophis. (Rick's notes:

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/news_detail.cfm?ID=165


http://www.planetary.org/programs/projects/apophis_competition/
http://www.plutotoday.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=17771
http://www.spacecentre.no/?module=Ar...cShow;ID=50507
http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html)



"It's an interesting object and it's raised some interesting issues, but a worrisome threat? No.
We've got plenty of time," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object program.



So Apophis has turned out to be a bittersweet discovery for the scientific community.

While its close flybys during the next five decades offer fantastic prospects for proximity
studies, they also serve as grim reminders of how susceptible our planet is to cosmic events
beyond our control.



Historic ka-booms


Earth has been a victim many times in the past. Impacts molded our world to make it what it is
today.


For example, comets delivered water and organic molecules to early Earth, and there have been
five major impacts that drastically altered Earth's biological landscape.

The last occurred 65 million years ago and was responsible for more than 75 percent of all life
on Earth being suddenly wiped out, including the dinosaurs. This event brought the Cretaceous
Period to an abrupt end.


And if not for the extinction of dinosaurs, we mammals may never have risen to our current level
of dominance.


Many acknowledge that Apophis is forcing scientists and agencies to discuss scenarios that are
comfortable to ignore. How long would it take to plan a deflection mission? What method, if
any, would work? At what point should emergency evacuation plans be initiated?



Tough questions, to be sure. But we are fortunate to live in a time when our technology has
advanced to the point where we can at least consider the answers.


Thomas R. Webber is director of the Heritage Planetarium in Blount County. If you have a
question about an astronomical happening, e-mail him at skyguy@blountk12.org.







© 2008 Knoxville News Sentinel

[MagnetMan]

German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper
Published: 17:35 EST, April 15, 2008
http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html
© 2008 AFP


A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.
Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."



=EDIT=
I believe the "200 billion tonnes" weight mentioned is incorrect.

[American Patriot]

Some facts:

(Above article link: http://www.physorg.com/news127499715.html)

Possible impact effects

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3-10 megaton range^[19] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

FUTURE
The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13).

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

Vimpact	12.59 km/s
Vinfinity	5.87 km/s
H	19.7
Diameter	0.250 km
Mass	2.1e+10 kg
Energy	4.0e+02 MT

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

Quick Rick_Math... 2.1e+10kg = 2.1 * 10^10, therefore...

2.1 * 10^10 = 21,000,000,000

That looks like 21 Billion kilograms.

1 kg = 2.2 lb

21,000,000,000 * 2.2 = 46,200,000,000

That basically comes to 46.2 billion pounds.

Divide that by 2000 and you get:

46,200,000,000/2000 = 23,100,000

That gives us 23.1 million tons.

Ok... in American, 2k lbs is a "short ton". English version of a "ton" is the "Long Ton" which is 2240 lbs.

A deadweight ton is 1000 kg.

So, they may be measuring in metric tons (1000 kg = 2204 lbs).

Also... One other thing....

Cardinal number

billion

1. (US, modern British & Australian, short scale) A milliard, a thousand million: 1 followed by nine zeros, 10⁹.
2. (dated British & Australian, long scale) A million million: a 1 followed by twelve zeros, 10¹².
3. (colloquial, plural) A very large number.

   There were billions of people at the concert

• Western (Arabic) Numeral billion, 10⁹ short scale, 10¹² long scale
  • Previous: short scale: million, 10⁶; long scale: milliard, 10⁹
  • Next: trillion: short scale 10¹², long scale 10¹⁸
• ISO prefix: giga-

• http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/billion

(Sorry for so much copies of things, but I sure didn't feel like doing ALL the math today!!!!!!!!!!!)

[American Patriot]

Science German Schoolboy Finds Fault in NASA's Apophis Calculations
Shane McGlaun (Blog) - April 16, 2008 10:29 AM

---

13-year-old says Apophis has 1 in 450 chance of hitting Earth in 2036

NASA predicted that the Apophis asteroid has about a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting the Earth in 2029 when it will to pass by the Earth at a distance of around 32,500 kilometers. Apophis first became an object of attention in December 2004 when the asteroid was deemed to have a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth.


The fear is that the asteroid could pass through a gravitational keyhole leading to an impact with the Earth in 2036 when the asteroid makes another orbit near earth. According to NASA, if the asteroid struck the earth it would create a 1,049 foot wide ball of iron and iridium weighing 200 billion tons that would crash into the Atlantic Ocean.


The result of this crash would be devastating to the Earth as huge tsunami waves would be generated and obliterate coastal areas as well as inland areas. In addition to the Tsunami threat, the impact would create a thick dust cloud that could darken skies for an unknown period of time. The threat of impact from Apophis led to some calling on the UN to get a plan in place to deal with the threat asteroid impacts.


Yahoo News reports that a 13-year-old German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, found a fault in NASA’s calculations. Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam to calculate the likelihood that Apophis would collide with the Earth in 2036. The boy took into account the chance that Apophis could strike one of the 40,000 orbiting satellites around the Earth on it initial pass in 2029 leading to a change in the trajectory of the asteroid.


This change in trajectory if Apophis strikes a satellite could mean an impact in 2036. According to Marquardt the likelihood of Apophis striking the Earth in 2036 is 1 in 450, not the 1 in 45,000 NASA predicts.