Brexit
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Major British Broadcasters Project Great Britain Will Leave European Union
June 24, 2016
The three major British broadcasters – BBC, ITV and Sky News – projected early Friday that Great Britain will vote to leave the European Union.
With 374 of the 382 counting areas declaring their vote totals, the “Leave” camp led by more than 1 million votes in a surprising turn of events. Each broadcaster predicted a four point victory for “Leave.”
Britain’s Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said he believes that “Leave” campaign will win the vote. To cheers of his supports, Farage said “the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom! If the projections are now right, this will be a victory for real people, for ordinary people, a victory for decent people!”
"Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day!"
As results and projections started to pour in, the British pound plunged to a 31-year low. The figures delivered a deep shock to financial markets, overturning earlier anticipation of a narrow win for “remain.”
The results paint a stark picture of a divided nation: Strong pro-EU votes in the economic and cultural powerhouse of London and semi-autonomous Scotland were countered by sweeping anti-Establishment sentiment for an exit across the rest of England, from southern seaside towns to rust-belt former industrial powerhouses in the north.
"A lot of people's grievances are coming out and we have got to start listening to them," said deputy Labour Party leader John McDonnell.
"Few 'remain' strongholds are doing better than expected," said John Curtice, a University of Strathclyde political scientist and BBC election analyst. "There are far more places where 'leave' are doing better than expected."
"It may be possible that the experts are going to have egg on their face later on tonight," he said.
A vote to leave the EU could destabilize the 28-nation bloc created from the ashes of World War II to keep the peace in Europe. A “remain” vote would nonetheless leave Britain divided and the EU scrambling to reform.
The first results, from England's working-class northeast, were a smaller-than-expected "remain" win in Newcastle and a bigger-than-expected "leave" vote in nearby Sunderland. The "leave" side also outperformed expectations in other areas of England, though "remain" was ahead in early Scottish results.
There was better news in London, where many areas had strong "remain" majorities.
As polls closed Thursday, pollster Ipsos MORI said a survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday suggested the "remain" side would win Britain's EU referendum by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent.
Earlier Thursday, the firm had released a poll that indicated a 52-48 victory for "remain." That phone poll of 1,592 people had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. But the firm's chief executive, Ben Page, said continued polling on Thursday suggested a bigger swing to "remain" that gave the 54-46 result.
As polls closed, Farage set a downbeat tone for the supporters of a British exit — or Brexit — from the EU, telling Sky News television "it looks like 'remain' will edge it" in the referendum, sending the pound to a 2016 peak of $1.50.
But he walked back those comments later, telling reporters at a "leave" party in central London that "maybe just under half, maybe just over half of the country" had voted to pull Britain out of the EU. And by early morning he was declaring the dawn of a new era.
The high turnout had been expected to boost the "remain" vote, because "leave" supporters are thought to be more motivated. But high turnout in working-class areas that typically have lower tallies could also boost the "leave" vote.
"I think it is going to be really close," said photographer Antony Crolla, 49, outside a London polling station.
Polls had for months suggested a close battle, although the past few days have seen some indication of momentum swinging toward the "remain" side. But torrential rains, especially in the "remain" stronghold of London, raised fears of diminished turnout. London's Fire Brigade took 550 weather-related calls as the capital was hit by heavy precipitation, thunderstorms and lightning strikes. Some polling stations were forced to close because of flooding.
Now that Britain is projected to leave the EU, Prime Minister David Cameron faces calls to step down after leading the “Remain” campaign. Almost half the lawmakers from his Conservative Party backed an EU exit, and the "leave" campaign was led by potential leadership rivals, including former London Mayor Boris Johnson.
If "leave" wins, he may have no choice but to resign.
"If the prime minister loses this I don't see how he can survive as prime minister," said Scottish National Party lawmaker Alex Salmond. "Talk about lame ducks. This would be a duck with no legs and no stability whatsoever."
At a referendum night party at the London School of Economics, Kevin Featherstone, the head of the European Institute, said that whichever way things went, the vote should serve as a wakeup call to politicians across the continent.
"One of the deeper headlines from tomorrow, of a narrow victory either way, is that wider Europe has got to learn the lesson about how to re-engage with ordinary publics," he said. "We can see across Europe countries which have been ... far bigger supporters of the European Union for a number of years starting to have serious doubts."
Kind of hard to argue with this...
Vote tomorrow-whatever your persuasion. I'm for #Brexit & promise to neither gloat nor whinge. But VOTE! 🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/6Faq4HHMJE
— Elizabeth Hurley (@ElizabethHurley) June 22, 2016
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