Top Gun 2
'Top Gun 2'
The Pentagon confirmed that it's been in touch with producers of a "Top Gun" sequel, and analysts speculate that Boeing (BA) F/A-18 Super Hornets will likely be the star of the new movie, a public relations bonanza for the aerospace giant as it looks to increase sales at home and abroad.
A generation ago, "Top Gun" wowed audiences as Navy F-14 Tomcats turned and burned, making inverted dives and other acrobatic maneuvers. But those jets are no longer in service. Options for the sequel include the Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 or the Super Hornet.
The Pentagon hasn't been informed about which plane will be used in the movie, Philip Strub, director of entertainment media at the Pentagon, wrote in an email to IBD Friday. Earlier he wrote that the movie was still in the "early stages of pre-production" and that the DOD hasn't received a script yet.
But analysts have some good guesses at which plane will take the leading role.
Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace consultant at Teal Group, said that the featured plane "will almost certainly be the Super Hornet," citing logistics and availability of the F-35.
Today, the Navy flies Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets, while the service's variant the F-35 is slated to be combat ready sometime between 2018 and 2019. Tom Cruise, who played Maverick in the first movie, said filming for the new "Top Gun" movie is scheduled to start sometime next year.
The timing could be tricky for producers of the sequel. The Super Hornet is in the fleet now but isn't the latest-generation fighter jet. The F-35 is a cutting-edge fighter with stealth technology but may not be combat ready in the Navy when filming starts.
The Marines' F-35B reached initial operational capability in July 2015, and the Air Force's F-35A was declared combat ready in August 2016. But neither is designed to take off and land from aircraft carriers, which appeared in the original "Top Gun."
"The F-35 is not really a Navy plane. It's a Marine and Air Force plane," Aboulafia said.
If the Super Hornet is chosen, its appearance in the movie could be a factor in getting Boeing more orders for U.S. allies. And President Trump has suggested a "big order" for the fighter could be on the way.
"As far as brand image, you can't beat what 'Top Gun' did for the F-14," Aboulafia said. But the F-14 wasn't exported; its only foreign sale was to the Shah of Iran.
Without new Super Hornet or F-15 Eagle orders, Boeing faces the possibility of no longer making combat aircraft after it was shut out of the F-35 contract and lost the B-21 bomber bid to Northrop Grumman (NOC).
Lockheed could use its own PR boost. The $400 billion F-35 program has been blasted for being over budget and behind schedule. But as the backbone of America's future fighter fleet, the Pentagon must start asking Congress for more and more procurement money as production ramps up, even as Trump and lawmakers on Capitol Hill have piled on criticism.
While Boeing's Super Hornet is the likely winner, Aboulafia said the jet is no F-14.
The Super Hornet is "a strike fighter vs. the ultimate machine to destroy everyone in the sky." He said Lockheed's F-22 would be the more comparable jet to the F-14, but only the Air Force flies the newer stealthy jet.
Boeing shares closed down 0.3% at 186.59 on the stock market today. Lockheed shares edged up 0.6%. Northrop, a major F-35 subcontractor, edged up 0.2%. All three stocks are in buy range, though Lockheed is at the edge of the 5% chase zone.
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