(7/28/2017) North Korea Successfully Tests Missile Capable Of Hitting CONUS

[Ryan Ruck]

Been busy and will be a lot of this weekend but it looks like the latest NK missile test on 7/28 is a missile that can reportedly hit the continental US.

Consider this a placeholder for when I have time to follow up or for others able to add info before I get a chance.

[Volk]

Russian Defense Ministry confirms. Believe me, they are concerned with anyone's ability to strike the Rodina.

[Ryan Ruck]

North Korea Just Tested a Missile That Could Likely Reach Washington DC With a Nuclear Weapon

Even with early data, North Korea’s July 28 missile launch answers questions about the capability of its ICBMS.

July 29, 2017

On Friday evening, local time, North Korea carried out what is thought to be its second-ever flight-test of the Hwasong-14/KN20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The test comes just weeks after Pyongyang’s first test of the system on July 4. The launch took place at 11:11 pm local time in North Korea.

According to a U.S. government source with knowledge of North Korea’s weapons programs, Friday’s launch took place from Mupyong-ni in North Korea’s Chagang province, not from Kusong, where the first test occurred. As The Diplomat reported earlier, the United States government had seen “a Hwasong-14 transporter-erector and firing-table transporter in Kusong” as recently as this week.

According to the source, North Korea demonstrated a range of 1,000 kilometers with its flight test on Friday, landing the missile’s reentry vehicle in the East Sea or Sea of Japan inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga. The performance of the reentry vehicle, the part of the missile that returns to earth carrying the payload, is unknown.

Additionally, the missile launched on Friday demonstrated a 3,700 kilometer apogee and a flight time of 47 minutes. Both of these numbers are considerably greater than 2,811 kilometer apogee and 37 minute flight time reported for the July 4 test and suggest that North Korea purposely did not test the Hwasong-14 to near its full capability during that test.


A representation of North Korea’s July 4 and 28 ballistic missile launch trajectories. The red trajectory is the July 4 launch and the yellow trajectory is the July 28 launch. Source: Scott LaFoy, imagery and missile analyst.

Contrary to the above assessments, the Russian Ministry of Defense has assessed the launch on Friday as a “medium-range ballistic missile” that flew to a range of 732 kilometers with an apogee of 681 kilometers. Russia also denied that the July 4 launch from North Korea involved an ICBM, despite opinions to the contrary from the governments of the United States, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, and China. As a result, the United Nations Security Council has still been unable to respond in a united way to North Korea’s first IBCM test.

When North Korea tests long-range missiles like ICBMs and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, it often fires them at what’s known as a lofted trajectory to avoid overflying Japan. As a result, the observed range is shortened, but experts are nevertheless able to extrapolate what the missile’s demonstrated range might convert to at what’s known as a minimum energy trajectory — the kind of trajectory North Korea would use to maximize its ICBM’s range.

The nearly 1,000 kilometer extension of the Hwasong-14’s apogee would allow for North Korea’s missile engineers to observe increased stress on the system’s reentry vehicle. As it reenters the atmosphere, the reentry vehicle needs to be capable of surviving incredibly high temperatures and avoid tumbling at hypersonic speeds.

A 30 kiloton nuclear airburst — a common estimate for the boosted fission device North Korea is thought to have tested in September 2016 — would require a reentry vehicle to survive to approximately an altitude of 1 kilometer. North Korea’s July 4 Hwasong-14 reentry vehicle is thought to have survived to that altitude, according to a U.S. government source who spoke to The Diplomat.

Based on the July 28 launch, preliminary impressions are that North Korea would be capable of easily ranging the contiguous United States. This contradicts earlier assessments of the Hwasong-14, which, based on the demonstrated July 4 fight, said that it would only be capable of striking Alaska and parts of Hawaii. The July 28 test would suggest that North Korea could potentially reach targets as far away as New York City and Washington, DC, depending on the size of its weapons payload.

David Wright at the Union of Concerned Scientists, based on figures first reported by The Diplomat, estimates the Hwasong-14 may now be capable of flying to a range of 10,400 kilometers and potentially 11,000 kilometers. Wright notes that if the unknown payload used for testing “was lighter than the actual warhead the missile would carry, the ranges would be shorter than those estimated.”

All signs now point to North Korea getting ever closer to operationalizing an ICBM that can range the U.S. mainland — a long-sought strategic objective for the country.

[Ryan Ruck]

[Ryan Ruck]

#Japan may have inadvertently beaten #NorthKorea state media to provide the first glimpse of the second ICBM test. https://t.co/a2HVfeZCce pic.twitter.com/qHH7wnRZUD

— Joseph Dempsey (@JosephHDempsey) July 28, 2017

[Ryan Ruck]

If their missile had the same CEP as the R-7 (first ICBM deployed), 3-5km, with 30kt it could still hit Los Angeles: https://t.co/fYWX3Sp6fS

— Alex Wellerstein (@wellerstein) July 28, 2017

[Ryan Ruck]

The launch location in Northern #NorthKorea took most by surprise. They have built MANY tunnels likely large enough to house even ICBM TELs. pic.twitter.com/3fFibBP4dI

— Strat 2 Intel (@Strat2Intel) July 29, 2017

[Ryan Ruck]

News North Korea ICBM Making 1 per week stockpile of ICBM s at this one location over 70 trucks with missles ready and 1 silo has ICBM pic.twitter.com/Cl6MV45VQS

— VERNE HARPER News (@harper_verne) July 7, 2017

[Ryan Ruck]

First footage of North Korea's Hwasong-14 ICBM launch Friday pic.twitter.com/7d6HMP3ifr

— Mikael Thalen (@MikaelThalen) July 29, 2017

[Ryan Ruck]

The U.S. Military Has Detected 'Highly Unusual' North Korean Submarine Activity

July 31, 2017

North Korea has been engaged in "highly unusual and unprecedented levels" of submarine activity in the wake of its second intercontinental ballistic missile launch this month, according to analysis by the U.S. military.

Speaking with CNN, an unnamed U.S. defense official said Monday the military also detected evidence of an "ejection test" Sunday at the Sinpo Naval Shipyard on the country's eastern seaboard. Sinpo functions as a center of North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program.

Ejection tests like Sunday's — of which CNN says there have been four this year, three in July alone — test the efficacy of a launch component critical to developing submarine missile launch capability. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Pyongyang's submarine fleet comprises about 70 subs, but few are thought to be new or sophisticated enough to fire missiles and the submarine-based launch program is still in its nascent stages.

Earlier in July CNN reported that one of the older class of North Korean subs, a Romeo, had sailed some 62 miles out to sea in international waters. The U.S. and South Korea slightly raised their alert level in response to its unusual deployment and range.

Pyongyang fired either a KN-11 or a Pukguksong-1 missile from a submarine last summer, in what officials believe was the country's first successful submarine missile test.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claimed last week that "the entire U.S. territory is within our shooting range” after its latest missile launch, further ratcheting up tensions with Washington.

[CNN]