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Thread: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

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    Default Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Keep a VERY close eye on this situation folks! It has the distinct possibility of becoming VERY hairy!

    With the election so close, expect many allegations of voter fraud, demands for recounts and examining chads que cuelgan and, calls to "take to the street" from AMLO.

    Mexico Election Too Close To Call
    Mexico's presidential election is too close to call between a leftist anti-poverty campaigner and the conservative ruling party candidate locked in a tie, a respected exit poll said on Sunday.

    The extremely close vote raised fears of a political crisis if any of the main candidates challenge the results and call street protests.

    Pre-election polls had showed Felipe Calderon of the ruling party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City, in a virtual tie. Exit polls from Mexico's two main television station and the El Universal newspaper said they could not declare a winner.

    El Universal said the race was between Lopez Obrador and Calderon. Neither of the TV stations mentioned Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century.

    The Federal Electoral Institute was expected to announce official results at around 11 p.m. If it is unable to call a winner, Mexico could face days or weeks of legal wrangling and protests similar to the fight that followed the U.S. presidential election in 2000.

    That would spook Mexico's financial markets, which are already nervous about Lopez Obrador's economic policies.

    He campaigned on promises to end two decades of free-market reforms and pull millions out of poverty with welfare benefits and new jobs in ambitious infrastructure projects.

    "Lopez Obrador is the only one who can bring a new Mexican revolution where the poor are the ones who win," said Amalia Rodriguez, a 19-year-old student in Mexico City.

    Lopez Obrador was the red-hot favorite for most of the campaign but Calderon closed the gap with aggressive TV ads painting his rival as a danger to Mexico's economic stability and linking him to Venezuela's anti-U.S. firebrand President Hugo Chavez.

    It was a strategy that worked with many voters.

    "Lopez Obrador is not a danger to Mexico; he's the enemy of Mexico," said Carolina Ocampo, a 34-year-old sunglasses saleswoman as after voting in Mexico City on Sunday.

    Calderon, a stiff Harvard-educated lawyer and economist, has promised to create millions of jobs with pro-business reforms, more foreign investment and a boom in construction and housebuilding.

    He also vows to clamp down on violent criminals, from kidnappers to drug smugglers who have killed around 1,000 people in vicious turf wars so far this year.

    President Vicente Fox took office after that historic victory pledging fast and far-reaching reforms. Hopes ran high but Fox failed to deliver on his promises of rapid economic growth and millions of new jobs, and opposition parties in Congress blocked his economic reform program.

    He was barred under Mexico's constitution from seeking reelection.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Mexican left's anger simmers after contested vote

    Mon Jul 3, 2006 5:26pm ET


    By Alistair Bell
    MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's left, still smarting from a 1988 presidential vote it says was stolen from it, simmered with anger on Monday as its dreams of power were frustrated by another contested election.

    Conservative candidate Felipe Calderon claimed victory in Sunday's hard-fought presidential election and official returns appeared to show anti-poverty campaigner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (a/k/a "AMLO")
    would be unable to catch him.

    Harvard-educated Calderon held a one-point lead over former Indian welfare officer Lopez Obrador on Monday with returns in from almost 98 percent of polling stations. A top electoral official said a recount this week was unlikely to change that.

    Full article: http://today.reuters.com/news/newsar...src=rss&rpc=22

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Mexico Leftist Could Call Election Protests
    Mexico's leftist presidential candidate, trailing narrowly in the vote, will call street protests if necessary to challenge an election he says was full of irregularities, senior aides said on Tuesday.

    They said Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was not yet calling for street demonstrations and would first take his challenge to Mexico's election authorities, but could then call out his supporters to back his cause.

    "We are not calling for immediate demonstrations but of course it could happen at some point," Manuel Camacho Solis, the candidate's main political operator, told Reuters.

    "The path to demonstrations is open but we have decided not to make it our main instrument at this stage."

    Lopez Obrador's election campaign manager, Jesus Ortega, also said street protests were an option as the left-wing former mayor of Mexico City challenges the apparent razor-thin victory of his ruling party conservative rival, Felipe Calderon.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Leftist Mexican Presidential Candidate To Demand Vote-By-Vote Recount
    Mexico faced the possibility of weeks to months of political uncertainty after the leftist presidential candidate - trailing his conservative rival by a percentage point - called for a vote-by-vote recount, alleging millions of missing votes.

    Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who campaigned on uplifting Mexico's poor, trailed business-friendly rival Felipe Calderon by more than 400,000 votes in a preliminary count - although electoral officials say they'll declare no winner until after a time-consuming official count that begins Wednesday.

    There were some fears that Lopez Obrador's refusal to accept Calderon's apparent victory could throw the country into turmoil. But Lopez Obrador also is haunted by Mexico's memories of 1988, when many believe the then-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party stole a victory from candidate Cuauhtémoc Cardenas, who went on to found Lopez Obrador's party.

    Now Lopez Obrador's allegations of irregularities threaten to drag out the process for weeks, if not months, putting Mexico's young democracy to the test.

    "There are about 3 million votes missing," Lopez Obrador told reporters at his campaign headquarters Monday night.

    The former Mexico City mayor explained that officials had estimated a voter turnout of about 41 million or 42 million, yet preliminary vote tallies by Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute only showed about 38 million ballots cast.

    As a result, the institute's first count is something that "we cannot accept," he said.

    Jesus Ortega, Lopez Obrador's campaign manager, added that "in some cases, we are going to demand the opening of ballot packages and vote-by-vote recounts."

    Members of Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party said there were indications that the preliminary count may have been manipulated to favour Calderon's National Action Party, the party of President Vicente Fox. The Federal Electoral Institute did not respond to the allegation.

    The official vote count starting Wednesday can take as little as a week, if there are no challenges. Even if a winner is declared, those results can be challenged in court.

    After Sunday night's rapid vote-sampling, both candidates immediately declared victory. Representatives of Roberto Madrazo, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, conceded the race Monday night, Mexican news media reported.

    In a television interview Monday night, Calderon said he applauded the "mature, responsible attitude of the PRI candidate," and said he planned as president to reach out to all Mexicans, including his former rivals.

    "My intention is to talk with everyone," he said. "Mexico needs everyone."

    Earlier on, he vowed to build a conciliatory government to mend rifts after an angry campaign in which nearly two-thirds of the 38 million voters chose other candidates.

    "It is time to put our divisions behind us," he said

    Lopez Obrador continued to claim victory, saying, "we have a commitment to the citizens to defend the will of millions of Mexicans."

    "We are going to employ whatever legal means," he told supporters.

    Lopez Obrador claimed there were "many irregularities" in the election, including badly reported results and the double counting of votes. He also asked how it was possible that his party won 155 of 300 electoral districts without winning the presidency.

    Many had predicted violent street protests if the vote was too close to call - some of Lopez Obrador's supporters revere him with a near-messianic devotion - but that possibility appeared to diminish after Lopez Obrador's speech on Sunday, in which he did not call for any demonstrations.

    Financial markets rallied Monday on preliminary results that showed Calderon, a fiscally conservative former energy secretary, in the lead.

    With 98.45 per cent of polling stations reporting, Calderon had 36.38 per cent and Lopez Obrador had 35.34 per cent.

    Madrazo was a distant third with 21.57 per cent, and minor candidates and write-ins accounted for the rest.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    The latest on the Mexican election:

    Mexico's Calderon Has Insurmountable Lead
    Ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon built an insurmountable lead in Mexico's presidential vote count Thursday, but his leftist rival vowed to challenge the results in court.

    With 99.56 percent of the vote counted, Felipe Calderon would win even if all the remaining votes went to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party. He had 35.82 percent of the vote, compared with 35.37 percent for Lopez Obrador.

    Lopez Obrador supporters wept in the streets, saying they wouldn't let him be robbed of victory.
    And…

    Calderon Wins Mexican Presidential Race
    MEXICO CITY - The ruling party's Felipe Calderon won the official count in Mexico's disputed presidential race Thursday, a come-from-behind victory for the stiff technocrat. But his leftist rival refused to concede and said he'd fight the results in court.

    Calderon, a conservative who preached free-market values and financial stability during the campaign, was already reaching out to other parties to build a "unity government." His opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, blamed fraud for his narrow loss in the vote count and called on his supporters to fill Mexico City's main square Saturday in a show of force.

    With the 41 million votes counted, Calderon of President Vicente Fox's National Action Party had 35.89 percent to 35.31 percent for Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party. The two were separated by 0.57 percent, or 236,006 votes.

    Roberto Madrazo, whose Institutional Revolutionary Party controlled Mexico for 71 years until Fox's victory in 2000, had 22.27 percent, and two minor candidates split the rest.

    Luis Carlos Ugalde, president of the Federal Electoral Institute, confirmed Calderon as the winner Thursday night, several hours after the final vote count was released.

    However, the official declaration of a president-elect must come from the Federal Electoral Tribunal, which has until Sept. 6 to announce. Meanwhile, any challenges will go before the tribunal court. The next president begins a single, six-year term on Dec. 1.

    Mexican stocks closed 2.7 percent higher and the peso rebounded Thursday on the news of Calderon's lead. The markets closed before the count was finished.

    But many obstacles remain in Calderon's path. If his victory is upheld by electoral courts, he will face a Congress dominated by opposition parties, as well as a divided nation that sends millions north to work in the United States illegally.

    President Bush's decision to send National Guard troops to the border has increased tensions in Mexico, as has a U.S. congressional proposal to extend walls along the two countries' frontier.

    Calderon wants to rely on Mexico's many free-trade accords to create jobs and crack down on rising crime, and says he'll try to smooth U.S. relations without letting Washington dominate.

    "I want to establish a very constructive relationship without bowing my head and lowering my eyes to the Americans," Calderon said in heavily accented English during an interview with The Associated Press.

    "I have met with President Bush several times. I have interviewed with President Bush and several members of the American Congress, and I know it's possible to establish a more constructive relationship, and that would be very good for both countries."

    Addressing hundreds of cheering supporters before dawn Thursday, he called on Mexicans to move beyond the bitter campaign and "begin a new era of peace, of reconciliation."

    He reached out to the millions of people who voted against him, asking for a "chance to win your confidence."

    For months, Lopez Obrador had been the easy front-runner in the race, promising to govern for the poor and launch big public works projects. But he slipped in the polls after he refused to take part in the first of two televised debates, and never quite recovered.

    "It was Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's election to lose, and he lost," said Andrew Selee, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

    On Thursday, the former Mexico City mayor said that widespread fraud — not campaign missteps — cost him the election, and he called on his supporters to gather Saturday for an "informational assembly."

    "We are always going to act in a responsible manner, but at the same time, we have to defend the citizens' will," he said.

    He denounced election officials for going forward with an official count of poll-workers' vote tallies, as required by election law, and ignoring his demand for a ballot-by-ballot review.

    "We are going to the Federal Electoral Tribunal with the same demand — that the votes be counted — because we cannot accept these results," Lopez Obrador said.

    Lopez Obrador supporters who followed the folksy leftist with near religious zeal wept in the streets at news of his loss. A busload of children from a private school jeered at three women bawling uncontrollably as they held up banners.

    As Lopez Obrador emerged from his apartment, one woman rushed forward and startled him with a desperate embrace. Taken aback for an instant, the candidate reassured her and kissed her gently on the top of the head. Tears rolled down her cheeks.

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    Smile Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    First and foremost I would like to say Hello to everybody on these forums. I am an avid fan of most regular posters here since they were on Anomalies.
    I registered just cause I wanted to share the joy we feel today here in Mexico. A few hours ago a representative from the IFE(Federal Electoral Institute) just went on TV an announced that the re-count still puts Felipe Calderon as the winner by .6%.... We have just been saved from probably joinin',or at least siding with, the bad guys on the world stage these days. That is what we here in Mexico think, I would really like to hear what u guys have to say on this topic. If Lopez Obrador had won, would it had taken us down the wrong path? I hope you keep up with events here in Mexico as much as you do with the ones elsewhere...

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Welcome Monterey! Good to see you here!

    First, congrats on what appears to be the Calderon victory (I say appears because of the next paragraph…)!

    Second, since you are "on scene", as it were, what do you think the chances are of Obrador trying to steal the election via either the courts or through mass demonstrations/rioting? Leftists are notorious for trying to steal elections…

    From everything I have read on Obrador, I do indeed believe that Mexico would be firmly in the growing Socialist South/Central American block had he won. What does concern me though, is that roughly 2/3 of your fellow countrymen voted for either the leftist or the far leftist candidate. Hopefully, Calderon can begin making serious changes to your government to show the people that they need not illegally come to the US to be successful and that Socialism just does not work!

    By the way, we here at TAA.com keep a very close eye on Mexico and the rest of South/Central America!

    Again, welcome and congratulations!

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Hi Ryan and Thanks!
    Well, as for Obrador trying to steal the elections, he will most certainly try. He is already calling for movilizations by his partisans. Some are already demonstrating in the Zocalo plaza in Mexico City and at other sites. That's what I fear, that after seeing that he won't get very far through the legal way (Electoral Tribunal), and he won't. He is going to try and destabilize the country or at least the capital through populist means.

    What Calderon is doing to try and work things out, is build a government of unity and plurality. He has already called on his former competitors and the other parties to join him and try and mend old wounds. He even went as far as offering Obrador a job in his cabinet, which surely Obrador took the wrong way.

    So what's happening right now is that Calderon is celebrating and trying to reach out to everyone. And Lopez Obrador or "El Peje" went dark and will supposedly issue some kind of statement tomorrow at 8:00 AM (If you really follow closely you will remember his 6:00AM press conferences when he was Mexico City's Major)

    So I'm gonna try and keep you guys posted on this matter. Hopefully in a few days we will have our new president elect and Lopez Obrador won't even be on late night commentators' jokes.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Synopsis- In the recount- Calderon inched passed Amlo in the wee hours, reaching basically the same conclusion as the original count. AMLO was ahead with 98% of the vote counted, as the Pacific south was counted last, due to AMLO protests. Amlo vows a vote for vote recount- to court until 31 August-5 Sept. Claims votes thrown in trash and folk not able to vote. Calls for protest in Mex city on Saturday.
    http://mx.news.yahoo.com/s/060707/38/1t3sk.html

    more... In Guerrero, 4 presumably armed groups crt-mb etc, called the election a cybernetic fraud. They criticized the passiveness of amlo and called for millions of mexican to organize and mobilize against this fraud.

    Comment- if the russkies have their magic wand over these "comics", voting fraud evidence may appear, evidence of amlo corruption (videos) or calderon corruption would add to the disillusion of the mex-folk, same as nwo propoganda in US- dems-rep same- pri-pan-prd same- all fraud. Stirring the soup for convergence.




    en el estado de Guerrero cuatro presuntos grupos armados, el Comando Revolucionario del Trabajo México (CRT-MB), Comando Jaramillista Morelense 23 de Mayo (CJM-23M), Comando Popular Revolucionario-La Patria es Primero (CPR-LPEP) y Tendencia Democrática Revolucionaria-Ejército del Pueblo (TDR-EP), calificaron de "fraude cibernético" la elección presidencial del 2 de julio.


    En un comunicado estos grupos criticaron la pasividad del izquierdista López Obrador y convocaron a los millones de mexicanos a "organizarse y movilizarse" en contra de este fraude.


    López Obrador convocó el sábado a sus seguidores al Zócalo, la mayor plaza de México, para protestar por el recuento oficial.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Hey, Monterrey jack, welcome! I'm glad to see you here.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Hey Aplomb, thanks!
    Well Friday morning and there still some eery calm about this. Obrador's team is said to be preparing their case for the electoral tribunal and the PRD keeps calling for 'peaceful' mobilizations. Judging by the culture and customs of PRD sympathizers, which are mostly from the southern states, this mobilizations will be anything but peaceful.
    I was really annoyed yesterday when i was looking at a newspaper's website report on said mobilizations and it showed a bunch of people holding signs and stuff and at the very front was a huuuge red flag with the star the hammer and the sickle. These people are so ignorant that they blantantly shout out their intentions while their leaders try to pass their ideologies for something their not: "social-democracy". I hate how the Mexican way of thinking is basically "I'm pissed poor so I want to see everybody at the same level as me". Obrador said he wanted to close the gap on economic classes. But he wasn't going to do that by bringing the lower classes up, he was going to bring everybody else down to the lower classes' level.
    Well anyway, that's my two cents. I could go on ranting all day.... see you all, gotta get back to work.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Mexico's Leftist Candidate Calls for Mass Protest
    MEXICO CITY — Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador rallied his supporters for a mass demonstration in the Mexican capital Saturday, taking to the streets his battle to overturn his rival's apparent narrow presidential victory.

    Lopez Obrador asked protesters to be peaceful and law-abiding, but also said the government would be responsible for any flare-up of anger after officials rejected his demand for a manual recount of Sunday's extremely close vote.

    "We are going to provide a channel for the great anger that exists among our supporters and those who voted for us, in the face of the manipulation of the elections," said Gerardo Fernandez, spokesman for the candidate's leftist Democratic Revolution Party.

    Before the march, Lopez Obrador was expected to speak to foreign reporters, most of whom he snubbed during the campaign.

    Alberto Anaya, a leader of Lopez Obrador's coalition, said that "those who oppose clearing up these election results are the ones who could start to generate unrest and discontent."

    The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City urged U.S. citizens "to avoid downtown Mexico City and surrounding areas" during Saturday's protest, noting that foreigners are prohibited by law from political activity here and that "even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and escalate into violence."

    The stakes are high. Lopez Obrador remains convinced he won the elections. He has millions of extremely devoted followers who religiously follow his message of helping the poor and downtrodden, and he views street protests as an effective means of pressuring the government and the courts.

    "The message that he's sending is, 'They wouldn't let me win,' that the umpire was unfair, that the government was unfair," political analyst Oscar Aguilar said.

    While violent protests appear unlikely, Aguilar predicted that Lopez Obrador would never recognize the narrow electoral victory of conservative Felipe Calderon, the candidate for President Vicente Fox's National Action party.

    "He will never concede defeat," Aguilar said. "Once the election results are certified, he will open a permanent campaign of criticizing the government."

    According to final vote tallies announced Thursday, Lopez Obrador lost to Calderon by some 244,000 votes, a margin of about 0.6 percent.

    Lopez Obrador says hundreds of thousands of votes for him remain uncounted, miscounted or voided, and that a manual recount would confirm that.

    Electoral authorities say the law allows such a recount only where credible evidence of irregularities exist for a specific polling place. The leftist's supporters say that clause would cover at least 50,000 of the approximately 130,000 polling places.

    Campaign coordinator Ricardo Monreal pledged that "we will do everything peacefully and in accordance with the law." But Lopez Obrador has in the past headed protests that turned violent or disruptive.

    In 1996, he led farmers and fishermen in sometimes-violent takeovers of state-owned oil wells to demand compensation for damages from an oil spill.

    Nor does he tire easily of protesting. In 1995, when he raised accusations of fraud in Tabasco state elections, he led months of road caravans and marches and set up a protest camp in Mexico City's main square.

    Last year, as Mexico City mayor, he led huge street protests that forced Fox to fire his attorney general and drop a legal case that would have kept Lopez Obrador out of the presidential race for ignoring a judge's order.

    But these days, Lopez Obrador must walk a tightrope. If he appears too radical, he risks hurting his party and its chances in the next presidential elections in 2012. If he appears too moderate, he risks disappointing his core supporters.

    "His political stock would increase greatly for 2012" if he finds a way to concede defeat gracefully, Aguilar said.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Mexico's President-Elect Opposes Border Wall
    Less than 24 hours after being named president-elect in a disputed official count, Felipe Calderon took a firm stance against building a wall along the United States-Mexico border to stem illegal immigration.

    Echoing his campaign theme, Calderon said the best solution to the immigration crisis was creating jobs in Mexico, "not walls or troops," a reference to President Bush's decision to send National Guard troops to support the U.S. Border Patrol.

    Calderon's remarks, delivered during his first post election briefing for the international news media, angered a leading Capitol Hill proponent of increased border security. Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., said in a phone interview that he was "insulted" by Calderon's statement, "just as Mexico would be rightly offended if we were to not only condemn their immigration policies but actively work to aid and abet illegal immigration."

    Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., another proponent of increased border fencing, said Friday in an e-mailed statement that he was "hopeful Mexico's president-elect will also look more closely at the benefits security fencing brings to both sides of the border."

    The reaction presages what is likely to be one of the most contentious issues facing Calderon if his victory is upheld by the special elections court that will hear a challenge of the results by his main opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Attempts by Mexican presidents to influence U.S. policy have often received frosty receptions.

    Immigration legislation in the U.S. Congress is stalled. The House of Representatives voted in December to build 700 miles of new fences along the border, and the Senate has voted to approve 370 miles of fencing. But neither proposal has been passed into law.

    Calderon was declared the winner of Mexico's presidential race Thursday after an all-night count yielded an official tally that showed him half a percentage point, slightly more than 200,000 votes, ahead of Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador alleges that the vote was marred by numerous "inconsistencies," such as more votes being recorded than the number of ballots delivered at thousands of polling places. He plans to hold a rally today in Mexico City's large downtown square, the Zocalo.

    Mexico's special elections court has until Sept. 6 to decide whether to certify the results. But Calderon is talking and acting as if his victory is assured. On Friday, he said there was no doubt about the results and predicted he would work well with opposing parties.

    Calderon also wants measures that will protect what he called "vulnerable" crops, such as corn and beans. Lopez Obrador had vowed to defy provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement that call for reducing tariffs on U.S. corn and beans. Many small Mexican farmers have said the reduced tariffs would put them out of business. Calderon said Friday he would not try to renegotiate the provisions. "The way the U.S. Congress is now," he said, "I don't see a large probability that the winner of the renegotiation would easily be Mexico."

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    AMLO's Offers to Accept Recount Result at Massive Rally Today in Mexico City
    eluniversal.com.mx
    July 16, 2006

    The presidential candidate of the For the Good of All coalition exhorted thousands of followers brought together in [Mexico City's] Zócalo capitol plaza to "defend democracy."

    Andrés Manuel López Obrador headed a march of hundreds of thousands of his sympathizers who overwhelmed the streets of the center of Mexico City to demand a recount of each vote cast in the July 2 presidential elections and which, in his opinion, would permit [everyone] to ascertain that he won the fight and not his conservative rival.

    "We are going to start, to defend democracy, peaceful civil resistance," the flag-bearer of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) said before his followers brought together in the Zócalo, the principal public plaza of the capital.

    Sympathizers and supporters dressed for the most part in yellow, the color of the PRD, walked several kilometers between shouts of "vote by vote, casilla [1] by casilla," and with placards above them reading "No to the . . . (cursed) fraud."

    The police in the capitol, where the PRD governs, asserted that more than 900,000 people [2] showed up, which would make this the largest demonstration held in Mexico City.

    In a march against insecurity [due to crime] carried out in 2004, it was calculated that some 500,000 people participated, until then one of the largest demonstrations.

    López Obrador has asserted that fraud was committed to give the triumph to Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN), who in the final count held four days after the elections obtained first place with an advantage of 243,934 votes or .58 percentage points.

    "If after the recount (López Obrador) has lost, then we should recognize it," asserted Catalina González, a retired woman of 67 years, who strode some hundreds of meters in front of the leftist accompanied by her 28 year old son.

    The PRD, which competed in the elections within a two party alliance named the For the Good of All coalition, challenged the results of the elections when they asked the Federal Electoral Tribunal to recount every one of the 41.7 million votes that were cast.

    The leftist asserted Friday that if the recount is made he will hold off the social demonstrations he has summoned, even if the result does not favor him as occurred in the official count.

    PAN has also challenged the election with the intention of amplifying Calderón's margin [of victory].

    The future of the election is in the hands of the tribunal which began its analysis [of the results] last Saturday and must resolve the challenges no later than the 31 of August to announce a president-elect no farther than the 6th of September.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    Translator's Notes:

    1) The casillas are the "electoral packets" of the ballots cast in each precinct that are crated and sealed after the count is certified by on-site representatives of all the major parties and which are not supposed to be opened for a recount by the election officials unless irregularities are detected, though they can be opened to retrieve documents necessary for official reports.

    2) I regard the figure of 900,000 people in attendance as highly suspect. On Saturday July 8th the Mexico City and Federal District authorities, who are controlled by AMLO's PRD, estimated turnout at the demonstration that day at 280,000 while western media said anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000. I heard one report today that said "perhaps over 250,000 people." I have no accurate figures to give today, I just mention that I do not trust the official estimate.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    With all that has been going on with North Korea and the Middle East, Mexico's election situation has fallen off the radar screen.

    And, it doesn't look like things are going all that great…

    Protesters Take Over Oaxaca, Mexico
    OAXACA, Mexico - Protesters have taken over the center of folkloric Oaxaca, making tourists show identification at makeshift checkpoints, smashing the windows of quaint hotels and spray-painting revolutionary slogans. Police are nowhere in sight.

    It's not the tranquil cultural gem beloved by tourists from the United States and Europe. A month of protests to try to oust the governor have forced authorities to cancel many events, including the Guelaguetza dance festival.

    Most tourists are staying away, costing the city millions of dollars.

    The protests follow other eruptions of civil unrest and class conflict that have plagued President Vicente Fox as his term winds to a close.

    Supporters of leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are holding nationwide demonstrations to demand a ballot-by-ballot recount in the disputed July 2 presidential election. Federal and state police clashed with striking miners in April and farm protesters in May, leaving four people dead.

    But the clashes in Oaxaca have paralyzed one of Mexico's top cultural tourist attractions, where visitors normally browse traditional markets for Indian handicrafts, hike ancient pyramids and stroll along cobblestone streets to sample mole dishes.

    The protests have reduced tourism by 75 percent, costing the city more than $45 million, according to the Mexican Employers Federation, a business lobby.

    "Most of the tourists have been scared off. It doesn't look safe when you have to go through a barricade and everybody is standing there with sticks and stones," said Chris Schroers, a German who manages a restaurant in the central plaza. "The police are not here. They don't dare to come into town."

    While there have been no reports of protesters attacking tourists, many visitors, including Lorena Valles, a 43-year-old from El Paso, Texas, have felt intimidated.

    Valles and a group of friends went to the city's main theater to see a play last weekend, only to find the event canceled and hundreds of protesters wrecking the auditorium.

    "There were people with masks and sticks and slingshots breaking the auditorium windows and setting the building on fire. That was kind of scary," Valles said. "The people here are normally very nice."

    The protest leaders, a mix of trade unionists and leftists, say their fight is not with the tourists but with Gov. Ulises Ruiz, whom they accuse of rigging the state election in 2004 and using force to repress dissent. Ruiz belongs to the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which has governed the state since 1929.

    The movement exploded in late June when police fired tear gas and attacked a demonstration of striking teachers demanding wage increases of about 20 percent.

    "We respect and welcome tourists, but it is important they understand that there is a climate of instability and the government is not meeting the demands of the people," said union leader Enrique Rueda.

    However, posters around the city declare the movement is also against the Guelaguetza dance festival because "only the rich and foreigners" can afford the $42 entrance fee.

    "We have seen the festival of our people become a circus that is just for whites and gringos and Europeans," said Rosendo Ramirez, 51, a spokesman for the Oaxaca People's Assembly, formed to coordinate the protests.

    Ramirez says the checkpoints were set up to weed out agitators. But he concedes the group has no control over many protesters, including some anarchists and communists who have come to Oaxaca to join the movement.

    Thousands have camped out in the city center, sleeping under tarpaulins. Speakers declare the revolution has arrived, while dozens hold political debates.

    Business leaders have called on the state to intervene, but state Interior Secretary Heliodoro Diaz says authorities have to tread carefully to avoid antagonizing the protesters.

    Hotel and restaurant owners are lobbying the Fox administration to help resolve the crisis. They also want the government to declare Oaxaca a disaster area and release federal funds normally reserved for areas hit by earthquakes and hurricanes.

    Fox's spokesman, Ruben Aguilar, has played down the problem, saying "it is annoying, but no more."

    Some analysts say Fox is hesitant to get involved because he himself is under fire from supporters of Lopez Obrador who claim the presidential election was tainted by fraud. Lopez Obrador lost to conservative Felipe Calderon of Fox's National Action Party by less than 0.6 percent, according to official vote tallies.

    Some fear the tensions might explode if federal troops are sent in.

    "There is rising social conflict in Mexico and the government appears impotent and unable to confront it," historian Lorenzo Meyer said. "If the government doesn't learn how to control these conflicts, they will only get worse as time goes on."

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Several of my Mexican friends and Industry peers are PEAVED the way things are turning out. They're crying foul on a FUBARed electorial cycle.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Mexico's Main Leftist Party Urges Election Recount, Protests
    MEXICO CITY — Lawyers for Mexico's main leftist party urged the country's top electoral court to order a recount in the disputed July 2 presidential vote, while their candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, summoned his supporters to the streets to claim he was the rightful winner.

    Lopez Obrador promised a record number of protesters would flood the capital's main square on Sunday to back his allegations of electoral fraud, in the third mass demonstration called by the former Mexico City mayor since the election.

    On Saturday, three of Lopez Obrador's lawyers asked the Federal Electoral Tribunal to declare Lopez Obrador president-elect, arguing that there were mathematical errors, falsifications or other problems at 72,000 of the country's 130,000 polling places.

    The seven-judge panel is weighing 364 challenges to an official count that gave Felipe Calderon, of outgoing President Vicente Fox's National Action Party, a slight advantage over Lopez Obrador, who stepped down as the capital's mayor last year to run for president.

    The closed-door session was the court's first hearing since the vote. Calderon's lawyers were expected to outline their case Sunday. National Action officials have submitted evidence they say shows the election was clean, while also filing their own challenges in districts that voted heavily for Lopez Obrador.

    Addressing a group of National Action mayors at his party's headquarters on Saturday, Calderon promised to unify Mexico and defended the integrity of the vote.

    "The election was clean, it was competitive, it was closely observed," he said. "At the end of the day, we won the presidential election. Period."

    An official count the week following the election gave Calderon an advantage of less than 0.6 percent, about 240,000 votes out of 41 million cast. The Federal Electoral Tribunal has until Sept. 6 to either declare a winner or annul the election.

    Lopez Obrador, a populist who counts on millions of passionate supporters who have turned out to support him in past disputes, says widespread fraud and a dirty campaign are responsible for Calderon's narrow lead. He has called for a vote-by-vote recount he says will prove he was the winner.

    His attorneys told the tribunal that Calderon enjoyed his largest advantages at polling places where there were no observers from Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party, and that many of the votes annulled by electoral officials were in favor of Lopez Obrador.

    Attorney Ricardo Monreal described the judges as respectful and attentive, and said the lawyers urged them to make an "exemplary ruling."

    He also called Fox — who leaves office Dec. 1 — "inept," and accused his administration of using its power and money to influence the election.

    "The court should not uphold the illegal intentions of the president," Monreal said, adding that the judges' decision "affects not only the rule of law in the country, but also society and democracy."

    After weeks of protests and allegations that Mexico is slipping back to its fraudulent electoral past, many have begun to question the Federal Electoral Institute, the autonomous body responsible for organizing the election.

    Democratic Revolution lawyer Arturo Nunez said Saturday that by ordering a ballot-by-ballot recount the judges could "clear up any doubt about the election," allowing the eventual winner to "legitimately confront the challenges of the presidency."

    Demonstrators, including a masked wrestler nicknamed "Little Ray of Hope," have camped out in front of the electoral court for weeks to pressure the judges for a recount.

    "Calderon is a thief who won't benefit anyone but the rich. That's why we the poor are here," said protester Julieta Martinez, a 43-year-old federal employee who said she has spent all of her free time demonstrating in front of the court.

    Calderon claims a recount would violate electoral laws designed to protect against fraud. He cites legislation that says officials can reopen sealed vote containers only where there is evidence of irregularities.

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Lopez Obrador Rouses Supporters
    The runner-up in Mexico's presidential election hopes Sunday's rally will highlight the public's backing of his demand for a recount.

    This week, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has declared himself president, threatened to close roads and airports with mass demonstrations, and accused the nation's electoral board of ignoring the law.

    And the week's not over yet.

    Sound bites from the 52-year-old leftist and former mayor have kept Mexico's presidential election at the top of the news in advance of a rally Sunday that his supporters say will draw more than a million people to the capital's main square.

    Unofficial returns show he lost the July 2 presidential election by less than a percentage point to conservative candidate Felipe Calderon.

    Lopez Obrador says that fraud, human error and a government conspiracy swung the election but that a recount would make up the 244,000 votes he's behind. The Federal Electoral Tribunal is considering the candidate's 836-page appeal and has until Sept. 6 to declare a winner. So far, there is proof of only scattered arithmetic mistakes.

    Lopez Obrador is looking to Sunday's rally — his third since the election — as flesh-and-blood evidence that Mexicans believe his accusations more than claims by Calderon and the government that the election was clean.

    "I am the president of Mexico," he told U.S.-based Univision on Wednesday. "I am absolutely certain we won the presidential election," he said on Mexico's Televisa network.

    On Monday, he filed a lawsuit alleging the board of the Federal Electoral Institute failed to keep business interests from funding last-minute attack ads against him. "They don't act according to the law," he told the Associated Press on Thursday.

    Whether or not he is granted a recount — and most believe it won't happen — Lopez Obrador appears determined to go down swinging.

    "He's leading a postelection struggle that in embryonic form could be a broad social movement," said Daniel Lund, a Mexico City-based analyst. "He's not Gandhi, but he's Lopez Obrador."

    The candidate has earned a reputation for his deft use of civil disobedience. A little more than a year ago, he beat back efforts by Congress and President Vicente Fox to have him disqualified as a presidential candidate. Millions marched on his behalf.

    Lopez Obrador then led a presidential campaign that promised to help Mexico's poor, who make up half the population, and end the privileges of the wealthy.

    He had a big lead in the spring, but it was eroded. For a time he refused to give interviews and ignored attack ads by Calderon. However, he finished the campaign with a slight edge in most polls.

    On election night, he and Calderon both said they had won, and the tug-of-war has gone on since.

    Calderon is filling the role of president-elect, meeting with interest groups and fielding congratulatory phone calls from heads of state. He opposes a recount on legal grounds, saying ballot boxes can be opened only with evidence of a miscount at individual polling stations.

    "One shouldn't deceive anyone with suspicions," Calderon said Thursday. "No one in Mexico can place themselves over the law and institutions."

    A recount could have one of several outcomes: Calderon could be the winner by a comfortable margin, or he could be declared the winner amid findings of errors or cheating. Or he could lose.

    The Federal Electoral Institute is running what can be described as defensive TV and radio ads congratulating Mexicans for holding a fair election.

    And Fox said Thursday that people — he didn't name names — need to respect Mexico's laws and institutions.

    Exit polls by Consulta Mitofsky showed that Lopez Obrador voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Fox, who, like Calderon, champions the free-market economy.

    Lopez Obrador, meanwhile, has threatened to send his people to the streets beyond the central square, the Zocalo. After all, he told Televisa on Wednesday, Fox supporters blocked highways and seized an airport after Fox lost a 1991 governor's race in a disputed election.

    "The current president felt he was robbed back then and he called for civil resistance and the seizure of highways and an airport," Lopez Obrador told the Televisa interviewer.

    Now, he said, some people thought he should just file a complaint and say, "That's fine, I'm going home.' "

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    Obrador Supporters Camp Out in Mexico City
    Supporters of Mexico's leftist presidential candidate brought rush-hour traffic to a crawl Monday, causing the stock market to drop and forcing office workers dressed in business suits and high heels to hike for miles to work.

    The sprawling tent cities in the financial heart of the Mexican capital were another sign that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his supporters won't accept anything less than victory from the top electoral court.

    The tribunal is weighing allegations that fraud gave ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon a slight advantage in the July 2 election. It has until Sept. 6 to declare a president-elect or annul the elections.

    Lopez Obrador is demanding a vote-for-vote recount, and has vowed to block the city center until the Federal Electoral Tribunal rules on his request.

    Mexico's stock market opened lower Monday, a sign the protests were making investors nervous.

    "We'll stay here for as long as it takes, but we're not going to let them impose a president on us," said farmer Anacleto Garcia Martinez, 53, as he warmed his coffee on a wood-burning brazier set up beneath a tarp strung from the wrought-iron gate leading to Chapultepec Park.

    With his broad mustache and a blanket hung over his shoulders, he resembled his ancestors, farmers-turned-soldiers in Mexico's 1910 revolution.

    "We've got revolutionary blood," said fellow farmer Angel Campirano, 49, of the city's rural Milpa Alta district. "Farmers are being forced to sell off their land, and we are defending the land."

    But modern Mexico — which now depends more on commerce, services and manufacturing than on agriculture — has little patience with such sentiments.

    Salesman Alejandro Lara, 33, walked two miles up Mexico City's swank Reforma Avenue, blocked by protesters, before he began shouting.

    "I'm either going to have to get up at 5 a.m. every day, or ask for vacations," Lara said angrily. "It's too bad, because I supported Lopez Obrador. But now, after this, I wouldn't want to have him governing us. He scares me."

    Lara was among hundreds of office workers who passed protesters blaring salsa music and playing soccer in streets blocked by barrels, scrap wood, ropes and lawn chairs.

    Cesar Nava, a spokesman for Calderon, called on Mayor Alejandro Encinas to reopen the streets to traffic, contending Lopez Obrador's leftist Democratic Revolution Party — of which Encinas is a member — had 'kidnapped' the city.

    "What they're doing is kidnapping Mexico City," Nava told reporters. "We see that as an unacceptable, partisan act and absolutely contemptuous of democracy."

    "The mayor up to now has been an accomplice to the flagrant breaking of the law. We hope he changes his behavior and starts acting like a mayor," Nava said.

    In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack expressed confidence Mexican authorities would resolve the dispute.

    "They have declared a winner. There are provisions for appeals. We have full confidence in the ability of these Mexican institutions to deal with this kind of situation," McCormack said.

    There was no estimate of the economic damage from the protest. Some businesses were closed, and a few tourists could be seen struggling with their luggage on blockaded streets.

    Marches and protest camps are common in Mexico City, a megalopolis of 20 million people, but Sunday's rally and resulting tent cities were on a scale that hasn't been seen in recent Mexican history.

    Democratic Revolution spokesman Gerardo Fernandez defended the protests, saying: "They are absolutely peaceful and absolutely legal. We are not violating anyone's rights."

    Encinas said Monday his government wouldn't forcibly remove the protesters. President Vicente Fox's spokesman, Ruben Aguilar, said federal authorities also won't step in, unless the city requests their help.

    "The organizers of these demonstrations and marches have said they will be peaceful and respect the rights of others," Aguilar said. "We hope they keep their word."

    Lopez Obrador is known for his ability to mobilize millions. Last year, he led marches that successfully blocked an attempt to impeach him as Mexico City mayor, a move that would have kept him from running for president.

    Calderon, who has an advantage of about 240,000 votes, or 0.6 percent of the official count, argues the election was fair and has condemned the street protests as "senseless."

    "The question is whether we Mexicans are going to resolve our differences with pressure tactics and marches, or with reason and by law," Calderon said Sunday after testifying before the tribunal's seven judges.

    Protesters included grandmothers, politicians and housewives. Many were drawn by Lopez Obrador's promises to govern for the poor.

    "A lot of us are not poor. A lot of us are doing this out of a desire for justice and equality," said Rebeca Garcia Guzman, a retired health care worker and middle-class mother.

    While Lopez Obrador has called on demonstrators to remain calm, the protesters say things could turn violent.

    "This is the start, and it is going to generate more, higher-impact protest actions," said Carlos Reyes Gamiz, a city councilman who spent the night in a tent. "Positions in this conflict are going to harden."

    That already appeared to be happening. Maricarmen Montano, a secretary, stood outside a subway stop and tried to figure out how to get to work. She was already two hours late and desperate.

    "What did we do to deserve this? This is shameful," Montano said.

    Montano isn't wealthy. But like many Mexicans, she views herself as part of an emerging middle class and fears a return to the era of open confrontation between rich and poor.

    "He comes from a low-class neighborhood, and it shows," Montano said of Lopez Obrador. "If he's upset, he should go to the courts. This kind of thing shouldn't be settled in the streets."

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    Default Re: Mexico Election Too Close To Call

    The commies got hailed on big time in DF last night. God is good. Hail, blood and fire.

    Let's pray for more hail. Bigger stones. Hail Mary...

    Ive seen these storms. Very impressive. Tomorrow they decide to count or not.
    This week, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has declared himself president, threatened to close roads and airports with mass demonstrations, and accused the nation's electoral board of ignoring the law.
    ery

    canto XXV Dante

    from purgatory, the lustful... "open your breast to the truth which follows and know that as soon as the articulations in the brain are perfected in the embryo, the first Mover turns to it, happy...."
    Shema Israel

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