North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test

[American Patriot]

Really? I missed that. I was in a briefing. /shrug

[American Patriot]

Renewed Activity Seen at Suspected North Korea Test Sites, U.S. Intelligence Says

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has renewed activity at suspected nuclear test sites, including the movement of people, vehicles and material, U.S. intelligence sources told FOX News.

Officials said the activity, which has been observed by intelligence agencies for several weeks, does not indicate that a test is imminent, but does increase the likelihood of a nuclear test.

"At some point, you would think they would test it if they truly think they have the capability," one official said.

A test could be carried out without much forewarning, another official warned, adding that a decision to conduct a test by the closed society would only be done with political ramifications in mind.

The new intelligence comes as Asian nations scrambled to forge a common front against Pyongyang's threatened nuclear test, with South Korea warning of a regional atomic arms race that could upend the balance of power in Northeast Asia.

Diplomatic maneuvering kicked into high gear, as Japan, China and South Korea announced a series of summit meetings over the next week to repair damaged ties and coordinate a strategy on North Korea despite no signs of an imminent test.

The joint effort comes just a day after communist North Korea triggered global alarm by saying it will undertake an unprecedented nuclear test in a step toward building the atomic arsenal it views as a deterrent against any U.S. attack.

CountryWatch: North Korea

Huddling in separate summits, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet Chinese President Hu Jintao on Sunday and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on Monday. Roh will then visit Beijing for talks with Hu and other officials on Oct. 13.

The three countries are key players — along with the United States and Russia — in the long-stalled six-nation talks aimed at convincing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for badly needed economic aid.

It is the first time the North has publicly announced plans to conduct a nuclear test, although recent reports have said it may be preparing one. Pyongyang says it has nuclear weapons, but it has yet to conduct any known test to prove its claim. North Korea claims to have nuclear weapons, but because there has been no outside confirmation, detonating one would be the first proof of its atomic capabilities.

South Korea's top official on dealings with the North, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok, said Wednesday there were no signs of an imminent test.

Yet Lee warned there was "a high possibility" North Korea would go ahead with one if "efforts to resume the six-party talks fail."

Japan's Asahi newspaper reported that two Japanese spy satellites focusing on a suspected underground test site had not observed any activities apparently connected to test preparations as of Tuesday. The paper cited unidentified government sources.

Meanwhile, Vice Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan warned that any display of Pyongyang's nuclear force could prompt Japan to go nuclear and trigger a regional arms race.

Speaking to lawmakers, Yu said such a North Korean nuclear test "could provide a pretext for Japan's nuclear armament.

"This will prompt countermoves by China or Russia and lead to a change in the balance of power in Northeast Asia," Yu said.

In a worst-case scenario, analysts have speculated, a test could push Japan to seek its own nuclear deterrent, intensifying historical tensions with China and South Korea, both of which suffered under Japanese colonial rule in the early 20th century.

Just last month, a think tank run by former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone proposed in a policy paper that Japan "consider the nuclear option."

A test could also strain the alliance between the United States and South Korea, which has sought to engage its neighbor.

North Korea has boycotted six-nation nuclear talks for nearly a year, angered by American financial restrictions imposed over the North's alleged illegal activities such as money laundering and counterfeiting.

The cooperative efforts displayed Wednesday by Japan, China and South Korea, however, contrast with the fractured reaction to a series of North Korean missile tests in July. In that incident, China and South Korea accused Japan of overreacting.

North Korea faced a chorus of warnings Wednesday.

China — the North's main ally and key benefactor — appealed on Pyongyang to show calm and restraint, issuing an unusually pointed statement that referred to North Korea by name, instead of its usual appeals for all sides to remain calm.

Meanwhile, Russia's defense minister voiced concern about the environmental consequences in neighboring Russian territory.

"The nuclear tests in North Korea, if they take place, could cause ecological damage in Russia," Sergei Ivanov said on a visit to a Russian air base in Kyrgyzstan.

South Korea's Roh called for a "cool-headed and stern" response, while Foreign Ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-ho said a test could cause Seoul to change its engagement policy toward the communist regime.

South Korea has consistently pursued dialogue with North Korea since their leaders first met in a historic summit in 2000. Seoul is also a main aid provider and on Wednesday, it shipping previously promised flood relief aid, including 6,400 tons of cement, despite the nuclear test threat.

"As North Korea has yet to conduct a nuclear test, it is difficult to immediately halt sending flood relief aid, which is being provided on a humanitarian basis," a ministry official said on condition of anonymity, citing official policy.

Other issues could also splinter a common front against North Korea.

Japan, the top U.S. ally in East Asia, has been the most hard-line against Pyongyang, especially since North Korea fired a test missile over Japan in 1998.

China meanwhile is a nominal North Korean ally and benefactor and sees Pyongyang as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in its own backyard.

"North Korea's next step may be to do nothing at all, other than to sit back and watch the rest of the world argue about what to do next," Ralph Cossa, president of the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, wrote in a report on the latest threat.

Some experts believe the North has enough fissile material to build at least a half-dozen nuclear bombs, though there are doubts about whether it could deliver them accurately on a warhead.

FOX News' Nick Simone and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

[Sean Osborne]

Date: Imminent

Location: Mount Mantap, North Hamgyong Province, North Korea

http://www.dprkstudies.org/2006/09/tunnel-completed-for-underground-north-korea-nuke-test/


http://www1.korea-np.co.jp/pk/080th_issue/99020301.htm

[American Patriot]

'Too late' to stop N Korea's bomb
The Australian ^ | 05oct06 | Peter Alford, Tokyo correspondent



WHILE the rest of the world looks to Beijing to stop North Korea from exploding a nuclear bomb, a leading Chinese analyst says it is too late - China cannot act without doing worse harm to its own interests.


"Basically, our country's work of persuasion with the (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) in the 12 years that the DPRK developed its nuclear program had been a failure," writes highly regarded Shen Dingli, of Shanghai's Fudan University. "The DPRK considers its national interests to be greater than its relations with China," Mr Shen says in his remarkably frank commentary, published in a newspaper of the official China Youth League and circulated yesterday by a North Korea-focused think tank, the Nautilus Institute.


(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.news.com.au ...

[American Patriot]

North Korea Warned Against Conducting Nuclear Test
Foxnews.com ^ | 10/05/06 | AP



SEOUL, South Korea — China on Thursday warned its ally North Korea of unspecified "serious consequences" if it carries out its first nuclear weapons test — Beijing's sharpest rebuke yet in response to Pyongyang's stated intentions.


(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...

[American Patriot]

N. Korea: The Possible Nuclear Test Dates & Sites
Donga Ilbo ^ | 10/05/06 | Ha Tae-won & Youn Sang-ho

Posted on 10/05/2006 6:29:14 AM MDT by TigerLikesRooster

/begin my summary

The Possible Test Date case 1: within a week (U.S. intelligence estimate, according to the paper) candidate: Oct 8, the anniversary of Kim Jong-il ascending to General Secretary Oct 9, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo visits S. Korea Oct 10, the anniversary of N. Korea's ruling Worker's Party's founding case 2: before Nov. 7 but after the dates in case 1) N. Korea tries to influence U.S. mid-term election in both case 1) and 2) case 1) is obviously more dramatic. case 3: a later date it can be postponed if U.S. gives satisfactory responses The Possible Test Site In the lower half of the following diagram is the map of possible test sites based on information provided by a S. Korean opposition legislator Song Young-sun, a ranking member at Defense Committee of National Assembly. It is my understanding that these sites are picked because each of them has tunnel(s) whose purpose intelligence agencies were not able to tell. Most of them are said to be horizontal tunnels. A red dot second from the right marks the Kilju, where some activities such as bringing in cables were detected about a month ago. Near the top-center of the map, is Kang-gye, in Jagang Province. Several days ago, there was a report that new tunnels are under construction in nearby Mu-myong Mountains, Shi-jung County. Jagang Province is known to have many first-class underground storage facilities for munitions.

/end my summary

[American Patriot]

Fox News just reported that a US Air Force recon airplane equipped with radiation detectors was just launched from an airbase in northern Japan and was heading to patrol off the coast of NK.....the big boom could be sooner rather than later.....

[American Patriot]

North Korea could conduct nuclear test Sunday: U.S. gov't analysts

Kyodo News (Japan) (excerpt) ^ | October 5, 2006

(Kyodo) - North Korea could conduct a nuclear bomb test "as early as Sunday," the anniversary of Kim Jong Il's appointment as head of the Workers Party of Korea in 1997, the Washington Post reported Thursday, quoting several U.S. government analysts.

"It may also be timed to coincide with an election at the United Nations on Monday during which Ban Ki Moon, South Korea's foreign minister, is expected to be chosen as the next U.N. secretary general," the report said.


Tuesday's statement by Pyongyang that it will carry out a nuclear test did not set a date for the test.
~ snip ~

(Excerpt) Read more at asia.news.yahoo.com ...

[American Patriot]

Gotta See This! WC-135 "Command Phoenix" Takes Off From Japan to Monitor N.Korea Nuke Test (Clip)
NNN TV Network (Japan) today, video stream (1 minute) ^ | 5 October 2006 | NNN TV Network, Japan (in Japanese)



Here is the link, this 300K Windows Media Player video stream from Japan should be up for 12 more hours or so:
http://meta.cdn.yahoo-streaming.jp/c...0&media=wm300k

[American Patriot]

Well, I can't get that link working here at work. Maybe someone else can.

[Sean Osborne]

I saw it. Not much good unless you are fluent in Japanese. Just a quick vid of the one and only WC-135W getting wheels up.

For those who don't know... a WC-135W's mission is the following:

The WC-135W Constant Phoenix atmospheric collection aircraft supports national level consumers by collecting particulate and gaseous effluents and debris from accessible regions of the atmosphere in support of the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963.

http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=192

The really salient point is that since there is ONLY ONE of these aircraft in existence and it went airborne (wheels up) - a nuclear test by the DPRK may have occured or is about to occur. This one aircraft is not launched on a whim.

[Sean Osborne]

Foxnews just made mention of this report. The NNN video Rick postedabove is corroboration of the WC-135W Constant Phoenix gettings it wheels up a couple of hours ago.

http://www.foxnews.com/#

North Korea Warned Against Conducting Nuclear Test Thursday , October 05, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea — A U.S. military plane capable of detecting radiation has taken off from southern Japan amid concerns over a threatened nuclear test by North Korea, a news report said Thursday.
The plane, which can collect and analyze radioactive substances in the air, took off from the U.S. air base at Kadena on the southern island of Okinawa, Kyodo News agency reported.
The plane is believed to be monitoring signs of a possible nuclear test by North Korea, Kyodo said. The North threatened Tuesday to conduct a nuclear test to prove it is a nuclear power. It claims it has nuclear weapons and needs them to deter a U.S. attack, but hasn't performed any known test to verify that.
Col. Anne Morris of U.S. Forces Japan refused to confirm the Kyodo report, saying she was not authorized to talk specifically about ongoing operations, but said U.S. forces were on alert for any moves by the North.
"Of course, everybody is being vigilant. But the U.S. position remains that we hope North Korea will allow the situation to be resolved diplomatically," she said.
North Korea threatened Tuesday to conduct a nuclear test to prove the country is a nuclear power. Pyongyang claims it has nuclear weapons and needs them to deter a U.S. attack, but hasn't performed any known test to verify that.
CountryWatch: North Korea
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun ordered his government to send a "grave warning" to North Korea about the consequences of a threatened nuclear weapons test, Yonhap news agency reported Thursday.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow was working with Pyongyang to try to dissuade it from a test.
"We must do everything so that that doesn't happen," Lavrov said at a news conference on a visit to Warsaw, Poland. "We are working with the leadership of North Korea to stop steps that could negatively impact the situation."
Roh also ordered the South Korean government to draw up a "contingency plan" if the nuclear standoff with North Korea worsens, Yonhap said, citing unidentified presidential staff.
At the same time, Roh instructed his government to step up diplomatic efforts to forestall a North Korean test, the report said.
Roh's orders came after a meeting with his top security adviser, according to Yonhap.
Calls to the presidential office went unanswered on the first day of a three-day holiday.
Click here to go to FOXNews.com's North Korea Center.
The North's announcement also prompted outcry from China, the North's main ally. Beijing's ambassador to the United Nations urged Pyongyang Wednesday not to go ahead with a test, warning of "serious consequences."
Wang Guangya said at the U.N. that "no one is going to protect" North Korea, if it goes ahead with "bad behavior."
"I think if North Koreans do have the nuclear test, I think that they have to realize that they will face serious consequences," Wang said Wednesday.
The comment was China's most forceful public response yet to its ally's announcement Tuesday, and a break with Beijing's usual conciliatory strategy of avoiding warnings to or criticism of the North.
Beijing — the North's main source of food and fuel aid — had previously appealed for restraint but hasn't said what it might do if Pyongyang detonates a bomb.
The rebuke could spell trouble for North Korea, which faces a relatively united front against its nuclear aspirations, in sharp contrast to the fractured reaction to a series of North Korean missile tests in July. At that time, China accused Japan of overreacting in calling for sanctions.
Earlier Thursday, a pro-North Korean newspaper based in Japan warned that Pyongyang was not bluffing.
"The nuclear test statement was not empty language, but announced on the premise of action," the Choson Sinbo said. "Carrying out a nuclear test is an inevitable conclusion ... under a condition where (the country) declared possession of nuclear weapons in February last year."
The paper, run by an association of North Korean residents in Japan, is not part of the North's official media but is considered one of its propaganda tools. Its articles are believed to reflect the country's position.
It hedged its warning by saying the crisis can be overcome if the U.S. begins to take action toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula with "the same goal" of North Korea.
In his first reaction to the North's announcement, Roh called Wednesday for a "cool-headed and stern" response and ordered his government to let the North know what the consequences would be if it goes ahead with a test.

[falcon]

N. Korea Leader Rallies Army Commanders

Oct 6, 6:58 AM (ET)

By HANS GREIMEL

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Il rallied hundreds of top military commanders as world powers pressed the United Nations to censure his government amid mounting concern the isolated communist regime was preparing its first nuclear test.

Japan's vice foreign minister said the test could come as early as this weekend, the anniversary of Kim's appointment as head of the Korean Workers' Party in 1997. Japan said it was stepping up monitoring of North Korea.

With tensions rising, North Korea's Kim met his top brass and urged them to bolster the nation's defenses, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said. Officers greeted him with rousing cheers of "Fight at the cost of our lives!"

North Korean state television aired still shots of the bouffant-haired leader waving to an assembled crowd of about 500 olive-suited officers in dress caps. Kim later posed for a group photo with his commanders in front of Pyongyang's sprawling mausoleum for his father and national founder, Kim Il Sung.

The meeting was the reclusive leader's first reported appearance in three weeks and the first since Tuesday, when his government shocked the world by announcing plans to test a nuclear device on its way to building an arsenal of atomic weapons.

It was unclear when the rally took place, or how many attended, but it could show that Kim is trying to polish his credentials with the country's cherished military at a time when international pressure is mounting on Pyongyang.

The KCNA dispatch made no mention of a nuclear test.

Kim's last reported public activity was when KCNA reported on Sept. 15 that he visited the scenic Diamond Mountain near the border with South Korea.

The North claims to have nuclear weapons, but hasn't performed any known test to prove that. Six-nation talks aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions have been stalled for almost a year, and North Korea says it needs an atomic arsenal to deter a possible attack from the United States.

Washington has repeatedly said it has no intention of invading North Korea.

Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi, currently in Washington, told the Japan's TV Asahi:

"Based on the development so far, it would be best to view that a test is possible this weekend."

Japan stepped up monitoring of North Korea.

"In consideration of various possibilities, we are preparing for whatever may happen," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said.

Japan has two intelligence-gathering satellites and launched a third in September that can monitor the North's nuclear weapons and missile programs.

On Thursday, a U.S. military plane capable of detecting radiation took off from Okinawa in southern Japan, thought to be a monitoring exercise in case North Korea carries out a test, according to media reports.

Overnight at the United Nations, Security Council experts reached agreement on a statement urging North Korea to cancel its planned nuclear test and return immediately to the six-nation talks. But the text needs final approval from council members.

Japan's U.N. Ambassador Kenzo Oshima said a statement "most likely" would be approved and read out on Friday morning after capitals give final approval.

The Japanese draft also urges North Korea to work toward implementation of a September 2005 agreement in which the North pledged to give up its nuclear program in exchange for aid and security guarantees. The six-party talks involve the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia.

North Korea has boycotted the six-nation talks since late last year, angered by American financial restrictions imposed over the North's alleged illegal activities such as money laundering and counterfeiting.

While all council members view the possibility of a North Korea test with alarm, there were different views on how to approach Pyongyang's announcement.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the United States wanted "a strong response" from the Security Council, not just "a piece of paper." But China, Russia and Japan indicated they wanted a more moderate initial response.

apnews.myway.com/article/20061006/D8KJ3DVG2.html

[Malsua]

I predict October 24. Two weeks prior to the US election, intended to get Dims into power so the muppet can get more oil and food from the US gov't and a policy of appeasement.

-Mal

[American Patriot]

The news is saying "as early as this weekend"... but I don't know why they would be saying that. Seems like it would be a couple of weeks yet to me too.

[American Patriot]

N.Korea ready for nuclear test: source
Reuters ^ | 10/06/06 | Benjamin Kang Lim and Chris Buckley


By Benjamin Kang Lim and Chris Buckley

1 hour, 45 minutes ago (Current time is 10:38 MST)



North Korea is "more or less ready" to conduct a nuclear test deep inside an abandoned coal mine but might hold off it can win concesssions from the United States, a Chinese source briefed by Pyongyang said on Friday.


The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a device would be detonated about 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) inside a mine near the border with China in the north of the country.


North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had issued instructions that the test should "not excessively rock" Mount Paektu, a nearby peak many Koreans consider sacred.


"They are more or less ready," the source told Reuters after speaking to North Korean officials. He did not give a timetable.


His comments could not be independently confirmed, but South Korea newspapers reported that although there were thousands of mine shafts that could be used for a test. Seoul and neighboring countries were closely monitoring three or four sites.


The Hankook Ilbo newspaper said the most likely site was the administrative district of Gilju in North Hamkyung province.


This was the area mentioned in a report by U.S. television network ABC news in August that an American intelligence agency had observed suspicious vehicle movements as a suspected nuclear test site.


Hankook Ilbo said a test would not have to take place in Gilju since there are so many disused mine shafts, and named the districts of Hagab and Shijung in the province of Jagang, which shares a border with China, as potential sites.


"Finding the test site beforehand would be akin to finding a needle in the Han River," it said.


SEEKING CONCESSIONS
The Chinese source said Pyongyang "may not necessarily test," and would hold off if Beijing and other Asian powers could convince the United States to lift sanctions and open dialogue.


New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is due to visit China on Sunday and South Korea the next day for summits to repair ties frayed by feuds over their wartime past. But North Korea's nuclear threat will grab a top spot on the agenda.


South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun visits China, North Korea's closest ally and major donor, next Friday.


"The bilaterals will be useless unless they can talk the United States into changing its attitude and respecting North Korea's sovereignty," the Chinese source said.


Pyongyang has boycotted six-country talks aimed at persuading it to abandon its atomic arms program for almost a year since the United States froze its assets in a Macau bank. Washington has said the move is part of a crackdown on suspected North Korean counterfeiting, money-laundering and drug-trafficking.


China has hosted the six-party talks since 2003, with the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia attending.


Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, a San Francisco-based think-tank that focuses on North Korea, said Pyongyang was attempting to use the threat of a nuclear test to press the United States into direct dialogue and concessions, including a lifting of financial restrictions.


"It's a quite unprecedented use of nuclear weapons to force an adversary to do something, rather than refrain from doing something," he said.
He said North Korea's plans remained murky but the chances of a nuclear test were high.


"The chances are that they will do it, having said that they will," he said. "The DPRK (North Korea) has been talking up its military power in the media for some time."

[Neue Regel]

The Hong Kong fortune tellers are weighing in and the "omens are bad". I suppose they're as reliable as some pundants.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegrap...001028,00.html

Fortune tellers see nuke test ahead

From correspondents in Hong Kong
October 06, 2006 12:00



HONG Kong fortune tellers say the omens are bad for North Korea's nuclear standoff, claiming today that according to their readings of the stars Pyongyang is likely to test a bomb soon.
Feng shui geomancer and astrologer Yeung Tin-ming even goes so far as predict when - sometime between tomorrow and November 4.
"He predicts there will be a confrontation in Northeastern Asia - Korea or Japan - that will result in the explosion of a nuclear weapon," said Mr Yeung's translator Amy Law.
Chinese fortune tellers use a range of predictive techniques to tell the future, including studying the stars and examining the spiritual significance of different days.
According to Chinese astrology, time moves in 60-year cycles and each year's character is governed by the relative strengths of the five elements of metal, wood, water, fire and earth.
Raymong Lo, a celebrity fortune teller, says he fears the bomb test will go ahead as 2006 is a "fire year", marked by explosive events.
"Everything this year has been about nuclear threats - Iran and North Korea," Mr Lo said.
"The last time we were in a year where the elements were aligned like this was in 1986 when the Chernobyl disaster happened."
North Korea this week threatened to test a nuclear weapon in the coming weeks, sparking renewed fears of an arms race as the US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea seek to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programme.

[Sean Osborne]

This situation is easily described with two words:

NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL

As we've stated, the Ayatollah wants to see if his investment will pay dividends. He sank millions of petrodollars in the AQ Khan proliferation network and millions upon million more petrodollars in the North Korean production efforts.

The time is imminent and as soon as the US tells Pyongyang "no deal" one last time.

[American Patriot]

So what you are saying Sean, is that the Fortune Tellers are RIGHT? OMG!

[Sean Osborne]

Fortune Tellers? LOL.

But, nah, my assessment is based upon years of experience and a whole lot of indepth information on how the entire nuclear proliferation network operates.

Granted, this is the high end of illicit nuclear proliferation by state entities, but the non-state actors are not that far behind.

In fact, I'd argue that non-state actors don't need to test - a fizzle nuke is a radiological and terror is the result. Objective achieved.