Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
if there IS a second test, and it IS a far larger yield i think that would be a good indicator they are tweaking the design in an effort to certify it for stockpile use, and as of yet, the design doesnt work right. if the second test comes off and does have a significant yield, then it will be obvious the problem has been corrected.
ev
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
All nuclear weapons have a gun or fission initiator - which basically and effectively makes all nuclear weapons at the minimum a two stage device. Some have yield enhancing components.Originally Posted by eversman
The North Korean purpose was to prove to the world its nuclear weapons capability.
What is the difference between a tactical and a strategic nuclear weapon?
The size of the sub-critical nuclear mass - that's all.
The North Korean's tested what they wanted to test, to demonstrate a nuclear weapon production capability AND to give their Iranian financers a real dividend on their investment.
They showed us something - THEY DID NOT SHOW US EVERYTHING.
All speculation on the size or yield of this tested device is premature which is why my published assessment so states. Analysis continues.
Last edited by Sean Osborne; October 9th, 2006 at 15:49.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
+1
This was my first thought when I started hearing reports that the yield was much less than what the NKs hoped for. They wanted a fusion weapon and only the fission trigger went off. Still, a nucelar detonation is a nuclear detonation.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Where is the report which unequivocally states that the yield of this device was less than what the bomb designers specificed???
That I would truly like to see.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
This may be of some help...
http://www.janes.com/security/intern...1009_2_n.shtml
As I stated earlier... a Richter magnitude of 4.2 is indicative of a signigicant yield device... the above states that initial richter reading were incomplete and did not have the later data parameters the 4.2 US and other calculations now almost unifrmly hold.By Joseph Bermudez Jr JDW Correspondent
Colorado
Initial South Korean Ministry of Defence and National Intelligence Service reports indicated that a 3.58-3.7-magnitude blast was detected emanating from a North Korean nuclear test at 10.36 am local time (01:36 GMT). Subsequent reports from the US Geological Survey (USGS) place the magnitude of the tremor at 4.2 on the Richter scale. The difference in the reports is due to the fact that the USGS assessment, being somewhat later, was able to incorporate a larger number of sensor reports in its preparation.
The USGS data identifies the time and location of the blast as 9 October at 01:35:27 (GMT) and centred at 41.311—N, 129.114—E at a depth 0-1 km. This places the site approximately 42 km northwest of Kilchu, in the province of North Hamgyong, on the remote slopes of Mant'ap-san Mountain. This coincides with reports that first appeared during 2005 of suspicious tunnelling and construction activities in the area. Subsequent reports during the past month indicate that the North Koreans had excavated a 700 m-long horizontal tunnel under Mant'ap-san.
Although details are tentative, initial and unconfirmed South Korean reports indicate that the test was a fission device with a yield of .55 kT. By comparison the nuclear bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima yielded approximately 12.5 kT. The figure of .55 kT, however, seems too low given the 4.2 register on the Richter scale. This could suggest - depending upon the geological make-up of the test site - a yield of 2-12 kT. If, however, the lower yield is correct, it would suggest that the test had been a "pre- or post-detonation" event (ie a failure), as it had been anticipated that North Korea's first nuclear test would have a significantly higher yield.
Therefore, it would seem very reasonable and prudent at this time to assess that a .55kT yield is well below the true yield level of this test detonation.
When a full slate of accurate parameters are availbe to assess, that's when we will be able to make a valid yield assessment and/or success of failure of this event.
By the way... the July launch of the taePo Dong 2 was not a failure. In that instance, as in iranian Shahab-4 launches the missile is destructed prior to the full trajectory and capability being revealed to enemy intelligence collection efforts. Again and in both related technologies: they showed us something - they did not show us everything.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
From a post in this thread dated 4 October 2006 at 14:38From Janes Defense Weekly report dated this morning:
http://www.janes.com/security/intern...1009_2_n.shtml
Dead on correct a minimum of four days in advance.This places the site approximately 42 km northwest of Kilchu, in the province of North Hamgyong, on the remote slopes of Mant'ap-san Mountain.
EDIT: It just was brought to my attention that in an Email exchange between Ryan Mauro and myself, I actually made to above dead-on assessment on 3 October 2005 at 10 AM EDT. Ryan's challenge was made in jest, but that did not stop me from letting it all hang out.
-------------- Original message --------------From: seanosborne@comcast.net
Date: Imminent
Location: Mount Mantap, North Hamgyong Province, North Korea
Sean--non sibi sed patriae-------------- Original message --------------From: TDCAnalyst@aol.comSean,
I expect you to find out a date and location in the next five minutes :-)
Ryan Mauro
Author, "Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq"Analyst, Northeast Intelligence Network and Tactical Defense ConceptsFounder, WorldThreats.com
Last edited by Sean Osborne; October 9th, 2006 at 16:38.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Round 2
Little kim squeaks another one out.
-Mal
--------
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599...-23109,00.html
US detects second N Korea 'blast'
From correspondents in Washington
October 10, 2006 03:11am
Article from: Agence France-Presse
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US intelligence has detected an explosion of less than one kilotonne in magnitude in North Korea but has not been able to determine whether it was nuclear or not, a senior intelligence official said.
The official, who asked not to be identified, said that first-time nuclear tests historically have been in the several kilotonne range.
“We are aware that there was a sub-kilotonne explosion in North Korea,” said the official. “We have not been able to determine at this point whether it as in fact nuclear.”
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
No reports that I have read specifically, just what I've heard a number of talking heads on TV say. I've heard that the NorKors were shooting for 400kt and achieved much lower than that. If they were going for 400kt, that is either a potent fission bomb or a nominal yield fusion weapon. If it was indeed a fusion detonation that they were trying to achieve and had a much smaller detonation as a result, I'd wager it was a failure of their second stage. And, knowing the NorKors, I'd bet that they were looking to make a big bang for a first detonation and were indeed trying to ignite a fusion bomb which fizzled.
On the other hand, I've heard Russian estimates that the blast was between 10-15kt which would be more in line with an emerging nuclear power's first detonation of a fisison weapon.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Then again, it looks like there could be yet another possibility...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/
A neutron weapon would have a much lower yield than your standard weapon...A Beijing source close to the Pyongyang authorities said the North had detonated a neutron bomb, but there was no immediate independent confirmation of this. A neutron bomb is designed to release more deadly radiation than other nuclear weapons.
If this was indeed a neutron bomb test, then they are much further ahead of the curve than most think.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
The global intelligence estimate is that Moday's North Korean nuclear test was was on the order of 5 to 15 kT, the median of which would make this a Hiroshima-sized fission device.
The US, UN and all other world bodies are powerless to do anything constructive.
Only Japan has the ability now to bring about significant action. Japan MUST make real its own nuclear weapons program. Japan has enough plutonium to make about 5,000 nuclear weapons. If Japan does embark on this route then all bets are off and Red China will actually be forced to do something constructive.
And the Iranian nuclear issue just become more acute.
The time for meaningful action is very short indeed.
Last edited by Sean Osborne; October 9th, 2006 at 23:18.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Remember the last time we all got preoccupied with the North Korean missile tests of July 4, 2006?
War in Lebanon erupted between Hezbollah and Israel about a week later becuase Iran gave Hezbollah the green light to do so.
Now we're preoccupied with the North Korean's once again, the same meaningless denunciations are rampant from the usual world leaders and our attention is on North Korea instead of where it really belongs in the Middle East.
Heads up!
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
5-15kt would have had a larger siesmographic signature. much larger. Very Much larger. This was no where NEAR that. This was either a fizzle, or a conventional bomb. While it is possible it was a neutron bomb, those have a limited area of effectiveness. 4.2 in no way or fashion suggest 5 to 15kt.
4.2 is also the upper limit. I'm willing to keep an open mind. This event was an utter failure on the NKs. It was either a fizzle or a conventional bomb intended to appear to be a nuke.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
I will say this, debate about yield aside, one thing is damn certain: Iranian Nuclear Scientists were there, and they were there for a reason. we all know damn well what that reason is.
Sean, i could not agree more this was done, and done this way, specifically to take the heat off of Iran and to try to gain political leverage for north korea. specifically, Iran got the FAR better end of the deal. with the internal events occuring at the moment inside iran im certain something is in the offing and im certain we wont have to wait too long to see it. something very big and very ominous.
with that said, im less confident i want to see a nuclear armed Japan. i do not agree with that, i think the united states should remain the japanese umbrella, and continue to work towards ABM technology advancements and put a naval blockade in place to further damage the North korean economy, and i think ultimately a nuclear south korea is the best result. i hate saying that, but lets face it. if seoul has nuclear weapons, the north loses a lot of its intimidation factor and a LOT of its potential for a southward march. if the south can vaporize the armored formations while they are still above the DMZ in their assembly areas, the huge north korean army is nothing more than a paper tiger. this is especially so since we are talking about south korean decision makers using the weapons not, US policy makers, and a direct participant who is in far greater danger, and thus, more likely to make good on the threat of their use. in this case the south koreans' use of nuclear weapons against the norths invasion force would be a self-defence act, and thus justifiable, whereas it may be harder to argue such with Japan and a Japanese bomb would potentially cause an Arms race. i would much rather see south korea develope nuclear weapons as a stabilizing force than japan develope them.
ev
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
I disagree.
Here's why...
The Hiroshima bomb was gun-type fission device which held 130 lbs of U-235 as its sub-critical core. Upon detonation it produced an estimated yield of about 13kt in an airburst at 2000 feet altitude.
When the "Little Boy" detonated only 1.38% of the 130 lbs of sub-critical core fissioned as designed.
This North Korean device yield is currently estimated to have been between 5 and 15kt. The ambiguity lies in the composition of the underground chamber and the immediately surrounding rock in which it was detonated.
Those numerical stated ambiguities will be refined and defined over time.
Internationally speaking, it is a fact that the initial and later referencing seismic data have all pretty much resolved to 4.2 Richter. This number most probably will remain static. A 4.2 Richter scale reading does not equate to a nuclear fizzle. Pakistan, India and China carried out nuclear tests with a yield of 36kt, 48kt, 72kt to 100-200 kt which produced Richter scale measurements of between 4.5 and 6. The lower end 36kt is closer to the Richter number we have for the NK test.
Apples to apples comparision to other underground n-tests are underway.
It is way too premature to say the NK n-test was a fizzle or a neutron bomb - there simply no data to support such a conclusion or assessment.
One thing is for certain - this device was not designed to be an air dropped bomb like "Little Boy" - it was a desgined and specifically intended for placement on a missile as a warhead.
Accordingly, this is the current assessment I have arrived at based upon all-source analysis:
The North Korean nuclear test was a tactical 5kt missile deliverable warhead.
As an Iranian warhead or a North Korean warhead it does not matter - this tested device was intended to perform this specific mission, and it worked as designed. A 5kt warhead works well as a warhead destined for Tel Aviv as it does for Seoul or any major American military base within range of either nations ballistic missile arsenal - be they Shahab's or No Dong's.
Last edited by Sean Osborne; October 10th, 2006 at 11:00.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Ev,
Yup. Absolutely. No doubt about it.
Yup. Absolutely. Dead on correct.I could not agree more this was done, and done this way, specifically to take the heat off of Iran and to try to gain political leverage for North Korea.
The word I will use here as well is "imminently" and it's location is Lebanon, Syria and Israel.Specifically, Iran got the FAR better end of the deal. With the internal events occuring at the moment inside Iran I'm certain something is in the offing and I'm certain we wont have to wait too long to see it. Something very big and very ominous.
**(We have some very significant or serious WMD rumblings coming from jihadi, insurrectionists and the Shi'a communities in Iraq as well.)**
Round II is a hairsbreadth or a hearbeat away, figuratively speaking, and this time it will involve WMD -- of that the is virtually unanimous.
However, I am (as are others I commo with) waiting to see if North Korea cooks off another device on Thursday.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
I made the above assessment knowing full well about the following report from the Washington Times datelined today, and its massive ambiguities ( and the inherent politics involved in anything coming from anonymous, press-quoted Washington "insiders" these days )...
U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
October 10, 2006
U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.
"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."
The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said.
The official said that so far, "it appears there was more fizz than pop."
A successful nuclear detonation requires a properly timed and triggered conventional blast that splits atoms, setting off the nuclear chain reaction that produces the massive explosions associated with atomic bombs.
White House spokesman Tony Snow said assessing the validity of North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test could take several days.
"We need to find out precisely what it is that took place yesterday, and that is something that's going to take awhile for the scientists and others to work through," Mr. Snow said.
"Nobody could give me with any precision how long it will take until they can say with certainty what happened."
Nuclear bombs make big waves, with clear signatures that make them fairly easy to detect, analyze and confirm that they were caused by splitting atoms. But smaller blasts -- as North Korea's appears to have been -- are trickier to break down, scientists told the Associated Press.
"It takes days, dozens of lab hours, to evaluate results. Now we can have only a rough estimate," said Russian nuclear physicist Vladimir Orlov of the Moscow-based Center for Policy Studies in Russia, a nonproliferation think tank.
Elements of the blast were detected by U.S. and allied sensors as it was set off in an underground tunnel in the north-central part of North Korea. U.S. intelligence agencies have been monitoring several tunnels thought to be nuclear test facilities and have not ruled out Pyongyang's conducting another test.
U.S. officials said the test was timed to coincide with several anniversaries in North Korea, including the end of mourning for the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's father, Kim Il-sung. The test was thought to have been linked to the commemoration.
North Korea's military thinks that joining the world's seven other acknowledged nuclear powers is key to preserving the power of the communist regime.
There were wide variations in seismic data of the North Korean blast. The French atomic agency estimated about 1 kiloton, and South Korea's geological institute said half of that. But Russia's defense minister expressed "no doubt" that North Korea detonated a nuclear test and said the force of the underground blast was equivalent to 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT.
"People have different ways of cross-cutting the data and interpreting them," said Lassina Zerbo, director of the International Data Center at the nuclear-test-ban preparatory commission, which is based in Vienna, Austria.
The Bush administration is pushing for the United Nations to adopt economic sanctions against North Korea that would include a blockade of all goods moving into and out of the country.
Key to the imposition of the tough sanctions will be support from China and Russia, two states that in the past opposed sanctions.
The most immediate impact of the underground test is that U.S. officials fear Japan will take steps to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
Official North Korean press for the past several years has been asserting that the United States is planning a pre-emptive nuclear attack on North Korea over its secret uranium-enrichment program.
Intelligence reports from several years ago indicated that North Korea was engaged in a covert program to develop a uranium-based nuclear program with the help of Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. The Khan network supplied centrifuges and nuclear-weapons design techniques to Libya, Iran and North Korea.
What U.S. officials have been unable to confirm is whether North Korea received small warhead design information from the Khan network.
Chinese-language documents on how to build a nuclear warhead for missiles were found in Libya and were supplied by Khan network associates. U.S. intelligence officials think Iran and North Korea received similar warhead design documents.
North Korea in July conducted flight tests of seven missiles including a long-range Taepodong-2.
U.S. officials think the plutonium for the pit of the North Korean device was produced by the reactor at Yongbyon, the regime's declared nuclear facility.
U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that North Korea has some 88 pounds of plutonium and that about 13 pounds were used in the recent test.
The remaining plutonium is enough for North Korea to make about six bombs.
• Joseph Curl contributed to this article, which is based in part on wire service reports.
Last edited by Sean Osborne; October 10th, 2006 at 11:13.
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
I'd like to point something out. The fact that this was a "small device" is not relevant. Here's why.
You do NOT NEED a primary trigger to detonate a nuclear bomb. Period.
You need two sub-critical masses that will mate on their surfaces. When placed together, the two sub-critical masses make one super critical mass which WILL create a self-contained nuclear reaction, and it will explode.
Physics says this. Not me.
The yield of such a device will be smaller than normal, it will not even approach that of the first atomic bomb (trinity test).
Very basically, if you simply handle the material, and place the two subcritical masses together, you and everyone around you is going to die.
If you have a SIMPLE gun device, you force the two masses together into a smaller mass which creates criticality.
Ok, where am I going with this? Easy. This might have been a "fizzle" from a NEWS standpoint, but this was a BIG BOMB from the standpoint of the US government, South Korea, China, Japan and other western nations.
Politically, this is a challenge to the US and the west. Also it is a situation that will certainly, absolutely bite us in the ass in the near enough future that I now am more worried about it than before.
So... this was a nuclear test, plain and simple. This is a very, very BAD thing.
Rick
Libertatem Prius!
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Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Also, over the weekend I was reading through some stuff myself and I agree completely with Sean's assessment on this. This probably was a bigger bomb than anyone knows.
Just a bit ago, DPRK stated that "the bomb was not as big as we'd hoped"... that is what is called DISINFORMATION folks.
It was BIGGER than they THOUGHT. bet you money on it.
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Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
Here's the full assessment and bottom line which I have to added to the NEIN article.
Based upon additional and continuing review of all-source data, I have come to an assessment on the significance of the North Korean test.
For comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was gun-type fission device which held 130 lbs of U-235 as its sub-critical core. Upon detonation it produced an estimated yield of about 13kt in an airburst at 2000 feet altitude.
When "Little Boy" detonated the device was just shy of only 1.4% of the total 130 lbs of sub-critical core fissioning as designed.
This North Korean device yield is currently estimated by many sources to have been between 5 and 15kt. The ambiguity apparently lies in the composition of the underground chamber and the immediately surrounding rock in which it was detonated as well as a 'guesstimate' on the size of the sub-critical nuclear mass.
My own 'guesstimate' is the North Korean device was between 6 and 8 pounds of nuclear sub-critical mass with a higher order of fissioning material based upon more modern nuclear weapon designs acquired through the AQ Khan nuclear prolifieration network. Pakistani nukes are described as missile deliverable warheads vice airborne delivered bombs. Regarding the Pakistani nuclear tests AQ Khan is quoted as stating "one device was a boosted fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear devices."
The numerical ambiguities surrounding the North Korean test will be refined and more firmly defined over time.
Internationally speaking, it is a fact that the initial and later referencing seismic data have all pretty much resolved to about a 4 on the Richter scale. This number most probably will remain static. A 4 Richter scale reading does not necessarily equate to a nuclear fizzle. Pakistan, India and China carried out nuclear tests with yields from approximately twice that of "Little Boy" to 100-200 kt and which produced Richter scale measurements of between 4.5 and 6. The lower end is closer to the Richter number we have for the NK test, and the difference between Richter 4.5 vice 4.0 to a 4.2 is quite large.
One thing is for certain in my assessment. That is the method of delivery for any North Korean or Iranian nuclear weapon. The tested device has not been designed to be an air dropped bomb like "Little Boy". It has been specifically desgined as a tactical missile warhead.
Accordingly, this is the current assessment I have arrived at based upon all-source analysis:
The North Korean nuclear test was a tactical 5kt missile deliverable warhead.
This assessment agrees with some intelligence data in todays report by Bill Gertz in the Washington Times: "Chinese-language documents on how to build a nuclear warhead for missiles were found in Libya and were supplied by Khan network associates. U.S. intelligence officials think Iran and North Korea received similar warhead design documents." The report also states, "U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that North Korea has some 88 pounds of plutonium and that about 13 pounds were used in the recent test."
The tested device as an Iranian warhead or North Korean warhead does not much matter. The tested device was intended to perform a specific mission, and I assess it worked as designed with the consideration that a 5kt warhead works well as a warhead destined for Tel Aviv as it does for Seoul or any major American military base within range of either nations ballistic missile arsenal - be they Shahab's or No Dong's.
Additionally, and by logical extension, I wish to add the following which was mentioned as a real world possibility by SECDEF Rumsfeld about two years ago.
Iran and North Korea have both tested the firing of a medium range ballistic missile [ostensibly armed with a small nuclear warhead ] from a non-descript ocean freighter. Such an attack apparently is within their planning for a preemptive or "decapitation" strike against the US. Such a missile (or missiles) fired from a couple hundred miles off the US east coast would impact target (say NYC or DC or both) within 4 to 6 minutes from launch. There is no defense against such an attack currently in existence as the developing US current ballistic missile defense (BMD) is based in Alaska and is specifically geared towards intercepting a long range ICBM where typical alert to a launch and the estimated time to impact is approximately 30 minutes. The US Navy Aegis-class cruiser BMD is currently under development.
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/si...hp?storyid=647
Re: North Korea Prepping for Underground Nuke Test
And perhaps another one...
--------
N.Korea may have conducted another nuclear test: NHK
Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:42pm ET
http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...src=rss&rpc=22
TOKYO (Reuters) - North Korea appears to have conducted another nuclear test, Japanese national broadcaster NHK said on Wednesday.
Japanese government sources had information that there was a tremor in North Korea this morning and they were checking on the possibility of a nuclear test, NHK said.
Defying warnings from its neighbors, the United States and the U.N. Security Council, North Korea announced on Monday that it had conducted its first-ever nuclear test. Pyongyang had earlier said a U.S. "threat of nuclear war and sanctions" had forced its hand.
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