Here Comes FLORENCE

**Sean Osborne** · September 4th, 2006, 16:21

Associated Press
Tropical Depression Forms Over Atlantic
09.04.2006, 10:50 AM

A tropical depression brewing over the open Atlantic was nearing tropical storm strength Monday, forecasters said. At 11 a.m. EDT, the depression was located about 1,235 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The sixth depression of the season had top sustained winds near 35 mph and was moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, a path forecasters said they expected to continue for the next day.

The depression would be named Florence if it reaches tropical storm strength with winds of at least 39 mph. Forecasters said it could become a tropical storm later Monday or Tuesday.

It comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which was briefly the season's first hurricane.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/...ap2991544.html

This NOAA satellite image taken Sunday, September 03, 2006 at 02:15 PM EDT shows the remnants of Tropical Depression Ernesto moving into Canada. Ernesto dumped massive amounts of rainfall across the Eastern U.S over the last few days and continues to bring rain to northern New England. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2392406

**Malsua** · September 4th, 2006, 23:23

Interestingly enough, the guy who forcast Katrina clobbering New Orleans(before Katrinia was even named Katrina) is now saying this one will be like the 1938 "Long Island Express" even though it's 10 days out.

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http://www.nukegingrich.blogspot.com...e-know-it.html

Monday, September 04, 2006

The End Of The Mid-Atlantic As We Know It?

There used to be a TV commercial for a stock brokerage named E.F. Hutton. Their tag-line motto was, "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen."

The segway here is to talk about Ed Mahmoud's gift for weather forecasting. Last year, more than a week before Hurricane Katrina made landfall Ed made this very startling forecast:

POSSIBLE COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS NEXT WEEK (Lets hope not, we just got our new well online just West of MSY and inside Bonne Carret spillway), GAS PRICES COULD RISE $0.25 OR MORE NEXT 10 DAYS!....The possible Gulf action may be named "Katrina", because this developing system in the Bay of Campeche may get the name "Jose" before moving into Mexico.

Not long ago, Ed gave another very startling forecast at GCP (#43)

END OF MID-ATLANTIC AS WE KNOW IT UPDATE...I think this is the one, a repeat of the 1938 New York Cat 3, but at more than a week away, can’t quite be 100% certain yet.

Here's a few facts about the '38 Long Island Express:

# Peak Steady Winds - 121 mph
# Peak Gust - 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA.
# Lowest Pressure - 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY
# Peak Storm Surge - 17 ft. above normal high tide (RI)
# Peak Wave Heights - 50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
# Deaths - 700 (600 in New England)
# Homeless - 63,000
# Homes, Buildings Destroyed - 8,900
# Boats Lost - 3,300
# Trees Destroyed - 2 Billion (approx.)
# Cost - $6.2 million (1938), $15 billion (1998 adjusted)

Now Ed tells us that it's still over a week away, and he can't be 100% certain yet. But his track record says that you folks up on the East Coast should really start paying attention, and if you haven't laid in some supplies, do it very soon. Thanks Ed. You're a gas!
Posted by nuke gingrich at 13:54

**Joey Bagadonuts** · September 5th, 2006, 00:41

Its still a LONG way away but hey.....ya never know. It pays to keep your eyes open and be prepared.

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**Malsua** · September 5th, 2006, 02:07

Yeah, still a ways out.

Ernesto gave me a couple days of rain, a few downed trees, lots of wind.

It was a lame duck when it got here. I can't imagine a true cat 3 blowing through. That's gonna be a problem.

**Sean Osborne** · September 5th, 2006, 18:25

Mal,

Our region of the northeast is long overdue for a 'cane; the last I remember was a minor one in the mid 80's, and then a true nor'easter in the early 90's - but that's it.

We have been very fortunate for the past 22 years.