Chinese Fast Developing Advanced Submarines

[Ryan Ruck]

Chinese Fast Developing Advanced Submarines

China could have its first aircraft carrier battle group composed of 11 warships in place by 2020, a high-ranking official from the Ministry of National Defense told a recent symposium hosted by the Institute for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies to discuss the purchase of diesel-electric submarines. His remark is probably an understatement and the ministry has seriously underestimated China's capability to develop and deploy submarines.

The ministry estimated that China will have two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines in this planned aircraft carrier battle group. Named the "Shang-class" by NATO, Type 093 is a refined model of the Russian Victor-III class and an engineering project complementary to the construction of China's Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered guided ballistic missile submarines. Deploying two nuclear-powered attack submarines in a middle-sized aircraft carrier battle group is adequate.

Over the past decade, China's submarine technology has made huge progress. In addition to its highly developed Type 093, Bei-jing may have more advanced nuclear-powered attack submarines, possibly Type 095, by 2020.

International media reports indicate that China may have completed the design of Type 095 and initiated the first phase of construction. Some believe the hull of Type 095 has been given a Western rather than a Russian design and that the underwater noise level of the engines has been reduced.

The Type 095 may also dopt the sophisticated HY-4 cruise missile with a range of 3,000km. If this type of missile carries a nuclear warhead, it can destroy up to 2km2 of any targeted area.

China is planning to build five Type 095 submarines. If the Type 095 can join its aircraft carrier battle group by 2020, its overall combat capabilities will easily exceed those of Type 093.

The ministry's projection of the make-up of China's aircraft carrier battle group also ignores the great technological progress China has made in building diesel-electric submarines in recent years. After Russia delivered the second batch of eight Russian Kilo-class Type 636 attack submarines to Beijing, China's diesel-electric submarine technology has improved considerably through imitation or technology transfer.

According to a foreign news report, China's Ming-class submarines have begun testing the installation of an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system that operates on liquid oxyhydrogen cells. Moreover, China's navy continues to improve its Type 039 Song-class submarine, which was recently found stalking the USS Kitty Hawk near Okinawa.

In future, all Song-class submarines are likely to be equipped with the AIP system and China will take the initiative to acquire new weapons systems from Russia, including supersonic anti-ship missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, wake-homing torpedoes and supercavitating torpedoes.

Prior to 2020 then, China's fleet of diesel-electric submarines will have become an underwater threat that nations in the Asia-Pacific region cannot ignore. That would constitute a structural change to the the strategic security of both the Taiwan Strait and the first island chain. Such a strategic alteration would put tremendous pressure on Taiwan.

Taiwan's defense capabilities will be unable to deal with these changes single-handedly and the nation cannot simply pin its hopes on the acquisition of a few diesel-electric submarines.

As the most vulnerable and strategically most important link in the first island chain, Taiwan should seek to improve its defense capabilities and strengthen military cooperation with both the US and Japan to deter China's expansionist ambitions.

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First Picture Of China's Secretive New Submarine

The Type 093B is stealthy and nuclear

By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer Posted June 23, 2016

People's Navy Online

TYpe 093B SSN

The Type 093B SSN is China's newest nuclear attack submarine. Stealthy and fast, it can quickly fire a barrage of vertically launched cruise missiles at unsuspecting ships and land targets.

In June 2016, China's navy released a clear photo of its newest, stealthiest nuclear attack submarine (SSN) being loaded with missiles. China's nuclear submarines are among the most secretive Chinese military platforms--it's a rare event to have even a photo of a 40-year-old Type 091 Han submarine, or the Type 092 Xia nuclear ballistic missile submarine. So an official photo of a modern Type 093B submarine is definitely big news in the world of People's Liberation Army-watching.

Jeff Head

Type 093

The Type 093 was designed in the late 1980s/early 1990s, and launched in 2002 and 2003. Only two Type 093s were built, as they are considered noisy and expensive, though much an improvement over the 1960s era Type 091 SSN. The Type 093B is believed to be much quieter than the Type 093, building on decades of Chinese advances in metallurgy and reactor/propulsion refinements.

The Type 093B "Shang" nuclear attack submarine is quiet, fast and the first Chinese combat submarine to be able to fire vertically launched cruise missiles. The United States Defense Department believes that three Type 093B SSNs were launched in 2015, and may enter service later this year. The original two Type 093 SSNs, launched nearly 15 years ago, were plagued by noisy reactors and propulsion systems, especially at high speeds, which limited their combat utility by making them highly detectable to enemy anti-submarine efforts. The Type 093B, in contrast, uses advances in Chinese metallurgy and reactor design to make a more quiet submarine. Experts place its stealthiness between that of the USN Los Angeles Flight I and Flight III SSNs.

Xinhui via China Defense Forum

VLS

The VLS cells are housed in a module right behind the conning tower; its framed in this picture by the blue gangway. The VLS battery, which may have 12-16 cells, can carry a range of cruise missiles for anti-ship and land attack missions.

While the stealth and performance of the Type 093B's reactor are not discernible just from looking at the outside, there are other noticeable improvements. The biggest is the installation of a vertical launch system battery behind the conning tower, which can be seen in a hydrodynamic hump blended into the hull (the VLS battery can be seen under the blue gangway). The VLS cell gives the Type 093B an advantage over older Chinese attack submarines since instead of launching cruise missiles from the torpedo tubes, it can more quickly launch missiles from the VLS. The larger size of VLS cells also makes them a good place to launch future underwater robots and UAVs. The Type 093B will still carry torpedo tube-launched cruise missiles, as seen in this photo. (The Chinese sailors are clearly loading a cruise missile canister into the torpedo tube, given that the smooth canister lacks the control surfaces of a torpedo.)

Xinhui via China Defense Forum

The Old Fashioned Way

Even with its vertically launched cruise missiles, the Type 093B SSN's torpedoes are still deadly against even aircraft carriers (though the crew is loading a torpedo tube launched anti-ship missile canister in this photo).

The Type 093B's conning tower has a flared base, similar to modern attack submarines like the Type 39C conventional submarine, and the American Virginia class SSN. The flared base could contain sensors, in addition to reducing under hydrodynamic drag and noise at certain speeds. There are also large installation mounts on the hull sides for side-mounted active sonar that will sweep for both surface warships and submarines.

Hongjian at China Defense Forum

YJ-82 Canister

In addition to VLS cells, submarines can also fire anti-ship missile canisters from their torpedo tubes; the canisters surface and break open to launch their missiles. This older method though, imposes size constraints on the missile and is a slower firing method.

Impressive a leap as the Type 093B may be for China's underwater force, the PLAN is already working on its next SSN. The Type 095 nuclear submarine, which may be launched before 2020, has been described by the Office of Naval Intelligence as a nuclear cruise missile submarine (SSGN) meaning that it'll carry a significant amount of cruise missiles, in addition to being a stealthy ship and sub hunter killer. The Type 095 SSGN is also likely to be quieter than the Type 093B, as well having underwater networked capability to worth with other manned and unmanned platforms above and underwater, and improved passive and active sensors. China has been behind other Pacific powers like the US and Japan in the undersea realm, but these examples of military modernization show how it is racing to close the gap.

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China Flight Tests New Submarine-Launched Missile

First flight of JL-3 nuclear missile conducted in November

BY: Bill Gertz
Free Beacon
December 18, 2018 4:05 pm



China carried out a flight test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile last month that will carry multiple nuclear warheads capable of targeting most of the United States, according to American defense officials.

The launch in late November was the first time the Chinese military flight tested the Julong-3, or JL-3 missile that will be deployed with the next generation of ballistic missile submarines, said officials familiar with the test who said it appeared successful. Julong is Chinese for Big Wave.

The test was closely monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies that detected the launch with missile warning satellites.

No additional details of the flight test could be learned. Pentagon spokesmen declined to comment. "The Pentagon will not comment on the intelligence related to Chinese missile tests," said Lt. Col. Chris Logan, one of the spokesmen.

China's missile force announced, without elaborating, that five missile flight tests were conducted between November 20 and 23.

Also, the Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration announced a sea closure zone for "military exercises" in the area surrounding the location near Dalian, China, where the new missile is being developed. The closure took place November 22.

The flight test is a significant milestone for the Chinese strategic nuclear forces buildup—the most lethal component of Beijing's large-scale military modernization program.

In June, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited a submarine base and announced that nuclear submarines are the country's key weapons systems and being upgraded rapidly.

"As a nation's ultimate instrument, submarines shall see great developments," Xi said. "Our seaborne nuclear forces need to advance by leaps and bounds. We pin our hopes of development and advancement on your era so that our navy and our submarine forces shall have a rapid rise."

Disclosure of the flight test followed internet reports last year that China deployed a Type-032 auxiliary submarine that is the likely test bed for JL-3 launches.
Private sector China analysts who examined photos of the Type-032, now located at a port on the Bohai Sea in northeast China, say the submarine's tower contains missile launch tubes that appear to have been enlarged for JL-3 tests.

The Type-032 was used in the past for tests of the shorter-range JL-2 missile, a variant of the DF-31 land-based missile.



"The extent and full nature of the work conducted is unclear but the imagery is consistent with a modification to the ballistic-missile launch tube or tubes contained within the sail," wrote Joseph Dempsey and Henry Boyd in the Military Balance Blog of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. "Logically, this would suggest plans for the integration of a larger—or at least taller—new ejection system and SLBM."

Dempsey and Boyd stated in August 2017 that the missile testing submarine was moved in February 2017 from its homeport in Xiaopingdao to Dalian Liaoning shipyard, which in the past was the location of China's submarine missile development programs.

The modification of the Type-032 "indicates progress towards a long-expected follow-on SLBM design, potentially designated ‘JL-3,'" they said.

A report that same month in the China state-run Keji Ribao, a publication of the State Science and Technology Commission, stated that the existence of JL-3 had not been confirmed by Chinese authorities.

The report stated that Chinese military experts believe the solid-fueled JL-3 will use technologies from the new DF-41 land-based intercontinental missile, and that it will be comparable to the Navy's Trident II D-5 and new Russian Bulava submarine-launched missiles.

"With wide applications of new materials and technologies, the development [of submarine-launched missiles] is accelerating," the report quoted Chinese military commentator Wang Qiang as saying.

The JL-3 will utilize advanced precision guidance technology with anti-jamming capabilities. Its technologies also will include what Wang described as a "photonic-crystal optic-fiber gyroscope" and other guidance know-how described as "terminal boost, stellar guidance, scene matching guidance."

Additionally, the JL-3 will be built with missile defense-penetrating features such as a variable trajectory, a radar-evading stealth warhead, and fast burning rocket motors that seek to reduce the heat signature that is used by U.S. warning satellites to track and target missiles.

Another feature will be advanced water-exit technology that will rely on sensors that optimize interference during underwater ejections from launch tubes.

Rick Fisher, a China military analyst with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the JL-3 when fully operation will have a range of between 7,456 miles and 8,700 miles—enough to reach most of the United States from underwater launch areas near Chinese coasts.

"China's testing of the JL-3 SLBM affirms Department of Defense reports starting in 2016 that state a next-generation nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), usually called the Type-096, will emerge in the early to mid-2020s," said Fisher.

"It is also expected to carry up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads," he said. "But what is not known is the number of missiles to be carried by the Type-096 or how many submarines will be built."

China's current sea-based nuclear force includes four Type-094 missile submarines, each outfitted with 16 missiles. Internet reports from China have stated that the future Type-096 will carry up to 24 missiles—similar to numbers at one time carried by Navy Ohio-class missile submarines. Current U.S. missile submarines carry 20 missiles each.

"So it is possible that the Type 096 SSBN could be equipped with hundreds of nuclear warheads," Fisher said.

By contrast, the next generation U.S. missile submarine, the Columbia-class, will carry 16 missiles.

The JL-3 is said by analysts to be a sea-based variant of the road- and rail-mobile DF-41 intercontinental missile that is expected to carry up to 10 warheads per missile.

That missile system is nearing deployment after recent flight tests.

With the new missile subs, "China is headed for a period of rapid buildup in its intercontinental nuclear warhead numbers," Fisher said.

Fisher said the danger will be increased by the growing possibility of offensive nuclear cooperation between China and Russia. "As such, Washington needs to retain the flexibility to increase the number of missiles carried by the future Columbia class SSBN," he said.

Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell said if the flight test is confirmed, it would be a sign China is committed to expanding its undersea nuclear delivery capability.
"In the near term, the JL-3 could be used aboard the PLA Navy's Type 094A, a modified JIN-class ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN), with the ultimate goal of being deployed aboard the next generation of PRC SSBNs, the Type 096," Fanell said.

The new Type 096 is expected to be operational by the mid-to-late 2020s.

"Whether aboard the Type 094A or the Type 096, the JL-3 will provide Beijing the ability to target the entirety of the continental United States from bastion patrol stations within the First Island Chain," he said, referring to a line of islands off China's coast stretching from Japan to the South China Sea.

"Given the expected improved quieting of the Type 096 and the up to 10 MIRVs for each of its potential 24 JL-3 missiles, this places an even greater requirement on the U.S. Navy to be able to ‘hold at risk' the People's Liberation Army Navy SSBN force," Fanell said.

To "hold at risk" means Navy nuclear attack submarines must be constantly trailing Chinese missile submarines 24 hours a day.

"As such, the United States must commit to increasing its [nuclear attack submarine] force as quickly as possible, along with other elements of the Navy's anti-submarine warfare architecture," Fanell said.

The Pentagon's annual report on the Chinese military states that the current four Type 094 missile submarines represent "China's first credible, sea-based nuclear deterrent."

"China's next-generation Type 096 SSBN, reportedly to be armed with the follow-on JL-3 SLBM, will likely begin construction in the early-2020s," the report said.
"Based on the 40-plus-year service life of China's first generation [nuclear submarines], China will operate its JIN and Type 096 SSBN fleets concurrently," the report said.

A report by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center said deployment of 48 JL-2s on the four submarines has provided China with a significant nuclear strike capability.

"This missile will, for the first time, allow Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the United States from operating areas located near the Chinese coast," the report said.

Vasily Kashin, a military expert with Institute for Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the state-run Sputnik news outlet that China is building up more advanced missiles and submarines over concerns the current JL-2-equipped submarines are vulnerable to U.S. and Japanese naval forces.

The JL-2 "could be used against U.S. allies and American bases in Asia, but their role in deterrence is minor," Kashin said.

"In order to boost its sea-based strategic nuclear forces, China needs a missile with a range of 11,000-13,000 kilometers, preferably with a multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicle," Kashin said.

The JL-2 experienced a troubled development with long lead times and a number of test failures and delays, including a launch failure that destroyed a test submarine, he said, noting the JL-3 program is expected to be less troubled.

"China will use its experience in missile development to avoid repeating its previous mistakes and speed up the creation of a new missile," Kashin said.

China within the past two years began conducting nuclear missile submarine patrols. The patrols remain shrouded in secrecy over Chinese concerns that any disclosures about its nuclear forces will undermine their deterrence value.

China's military imposes an extremely rigid command structure on all its forces over concerns about the loyalty of field commanders. Thus Beijing's military leaders carefully control the power to launch nuclear missiles for submarine commanders.

Chinese intelligence-gathering vessels also are engaged efforts to develop an acoustic signature library of foreign submarines that can be used for targeting by attack submarines.

A Chinese embassy spokesman did not respond to an email request for comment.