The Coming War in Pakistan

[Aplomb]

I think most of us here have been watching this one:

http://frontpagemagazine.com/Article...e.asp?ID=29151

The Coming War in Pakistan

By Stephen Brown


FrontPageMagazine.com | July 17, 2007“Not until the military steam-roller has passed over the country (lace>Waziristanlace>) from end to end, will there be peace. But I do not want to be the person to start the machine.”
-Lord Curzon > >
>>What Lord Curzon, Britain’s viceroy in India from 1899-1905, discerned more than one hundred years ago, the Pakistani government is discovering today, as the fallout from its assault on the Red Mosque in Islamabad last week spreads to Pakistan’s lawless, tribal North-West Frontier Province, where a military showdown with the country’s Islamic extremist movement is taking shape. The mountainous Pakistani province includes the Taliban strongholds of North and lace>South Waziristanlace>, which al-Qaeda calls home and Western intelligence agencies call Osama bin Laden’s hideout.
The Red Mosque, described as the Taliban’s “ideological heartland”, was closely connected with that radical religious group and other Islamist militias in the NWFP. The lace>Islamabadlace> mosque supplied the Taliban with money and recruits from its madrassa (religious school) system to fight the NATO troops in lace>Afghanistanlace>, while the two brothers who ran the extremist religious institution called for jihad and Islamic revolution in lace>Pakistanlace>.
>>
In retaliation for the Red Mosque’s violent closure last week, twenty-four Pakistani soldiers were killed in a suicide bomb attack on Saturday in the NWFP, while about 50 other people, including three Chinese nationals, also perished violently there since the beginning of the siege. Further strikes brought the death count of soldiers over the weekend alone to 60. The Taliban and supportive tribes have also renounced their peace deal with the Pakistani government, which exercises little authority in this province, where 20,000 tribesmen with rifles were reported to have staged an anti-government demonstration.
>>
In addition, a local, radical cleric, Maulana Fazlullah who is described as the head of the outlawed, Taliban-allied Tehrik-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law) in the NWFP’s Swat district has called for his men to prepare for jihad. Fazlullah has been called “Maulana Radio” since he gets his radical messages out via 107 small, illegal F M radio stations, according to Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad. TNSM fighters have already closed roads into the Swat region and seized the important Karakoram highway, part of the ancient lace>Silk Roadlace>, which is lace>Pakistanlace>’s main transportation connection with lace>Chinalace>.
>>
In response to the deteriorating situation in the NWFP, the Pakistani government has sent thousands of troops with heavy artillery to the area where an offensive into the lace>lacename>Swatlacename> lacetype>Valleylacetype>lace> is expected any day. The Red Mosque’s closure was regarded as an important first step for any military action to be taken there. It not only eliminated the heart of the Islamic extremism movement in lace>Pakistanlace>, but also destroyed a powerful center of resistance to the army’s coming campaign. In 2004, the Red Mosque helped undermine the army’s offensive against al-Qaeda in lace>Waziristanlace> when the two sibling leaders issued a ‘fatwa’ (religious decree), calling on people not to say prayers for dead army soldiers or bury them in Muslim graveyards.
>>
American military forces in lace>Afghanistanlace> are expected to take part in the effort to eliminate the Taliban and al-Qaeda bases in the NWFP. Shahzad says a secret agreement has already been reached to allow American troops to launch ‘hot pursuits’ into lace>Pakistanlace> against Taliban fighters, and American warplanes and intelligence assets will undoubtedly be utilized. NATO intelligence, Shahzad says, has pinpointed four Taliban bases in lace>Waziristanlace>, from which attacks against its troops are organized and launched, that it wants taken out.
>>
Shahzad also reports that American forces are currently building a base on a mountaintop at lace>lacename>Ghakilacename> lacetype>Passlacetype>lace> on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which the jihadists have already unsuccessfully attacked to prevent construction. The purpose of the base is to supplement aerial surveillance and prepare for incursions into Taliban territory.
>>
lace>Americalace> has given lace>Pakistanlace> about one billion dollars annually since 2001 to fight the War on Terror and was dissatisfied with the results as regards the Taliban. Analysts maintain lace>Pakistanlace>’s president, Pervez Musharraf, was playing a double game regarding militant Islamic extremists in his country. While lace>Pakistanlace> had handed over about 600 Arab Islamists, among them many al-Qaeda members, to the lace>United Stateslace> since 9/11, it left the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban virtually untouched, and even covertly supported it against NATO in lace>Afghanistanlace>. The reason for this, these analysts say, is that Pakistan wanted to reestablish a presence in Afghanistan via the Taliban to counter the India-friendly Kabul government.
>>
While America’s reported threatening to withdraw its support for Musharraf for his non-action against the Taliban may finally have gotten him to react, others believe the increasing size and strength of the radical Islamic movement in Pakistan, which worried the country’s establishment, were also instrumental in the crackdown. But just as instrumental in the Pakistani government’s launching its long-delayed offensive against the Taliban in the NWFP was its concern about its relationship with its all-important ally, lace>Chinalace>, which the jihadists may have been deliberately undermining.
>>
The occupation of the Karakoram highway indicates this. A huge free trade agreement between lace>Chinalace> and lace>Pakistanlace> came into effect earlier this month, of which this transportation route is an important piece. According to a Pakistani development analyst, the Pakistani government plans to spend $300 million to expand the highway and develop other transportation routes with western lace>Chinalace> and the Central Asian countries, so that they can “not only access the Pakistani market, but also reach out to the lace>Middle Eastlace>, lace>Africalace>, lace>South Asialace>, lace>Europelace>, etc through lace>lacename>Gwadarlacename> lacetype>Portlacetype>lace> in southwestern lace>Pakistanlace>.” Such vastly important projects affecting lace>Pakistanlace>’s economic future would be difficult, if not impossible, to carry out with thousands of armed, anti-government jihadists in the area.
>>
Just as important, lace>Pakistanlace> regards lace>Chinalace> as its most important ally in its rivalry with lace>Indialace> that has seen the two countries fight three wars in almost sixty years. One journalist noted that the government’s tolerance and attitude towards the Red Mosque’s numerous acts of civil disobedience and defiance changed when its activists kidnapped six Chinese women in late May and accused them of being prostitutes. The Chinese government, apparently, was not amused. It was probably even less amused when three Chinese nationals were murdered in the NWFP in response to the Red Mosque siege.
>>
Nevertheless, a military offensive into the NWFP will be very difficult and very costly. The mountainous terrain in lace>Waziristanlace> is among the most demanding in the world for military campaigns and excellent for guerilla warfare, while its martial tribesmen, the Mahsuds and the Wazirs, are very formidable fighters. The British discovered this during the Raj when the Waziristan tribes wiped out a British brigade as late as the 1930s; and the British Army of India had to station more soldiers there just to keep the peace than in the rest of country altogether.
>>
The tribesmen are very militarily skilled from constantly practicing warfare among themselves and in blood-feuds. Their code of honor, called ‘pukhtunwali’, noted one former Pakistani official, causes them to deliberately make non-economic and non-rational choices “in an attempt to uphold group honor, unity and loyalty”, so they will fight even against what appear to be the overwhelming power of a modern army.
>>
The Wazirs and Mahsuds will regard the coming war against the Pakistani army and NATO as a jihad, in which they will fight as well as they did against the Soviets in lace>Afghanistanlace> and against lace>Indialace> in lace>Kashmirlace> in 1947. The Taliban and al-Qaeda jihadis are already inspired with their own Islamic fanaticism. Al-Qaeda also desires a big war with the Pakistani army, since it hopes to mobilize all of lace>Pakistanlace> to topple Musharraf, one its long-cherished goals. One report states al-Qaeda even regards the coming conflict as the beginning of the last battle before the end of time that the Prophet Mohammad predicted.
>>
But, as the British showed, the tribes cannot resist, even on their own territory, a modern army that is willing to undertake a long, determined campaign. However, such a campaign will be very costly, as Lord Curzon rightly surmised, while at the same time correctly understanding there would never be any peace without one. But with lace>Pakistanlace>’s NWFP now serving as headquarters for worldwide jihad, it is no longer only a local peace that an American/Pakistani military steam-roller will ensure, but that of the rest of the world as well.

[Jag]

Strike by U.S. in Pakistan Is an Option, Officials Say




By Walter Pincus and Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, July 26, 2007; Page A16


Top Pentagon and State Department officials said yesterday that U.S. Special Forces would enter Pakistan if they had specific intelligence about an impending terrorist strike against the United States, despite warnings from the Pakistani government that it would not accept U.S. troops operating independently inside its borders.

The statements were the clearest assertion yet of the Bush administration's willingness to act unilaterally inside tribal areas in northwestern Pakistan where al-Qaeda's top commanders are believed to have taken refuge. But the officials also voiced strong support for President Pervez Musharraf, who they said has repeatedly backed U.S. anti-terrorism efforts in the region at great political cost.

"If there were information or opportunity to strike a blow to protect the American people," U.S. forces would immediately act, Peter Verga, the acting assistant secretary of defense for international security, said during an unusual joint session held by the House's Armed Services Committee and Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

At a separate Senate hearing, R. Nicholas Burns, the State Department's undersecretary for political affairs, suggested that a unilateral strike would be a last resort.
"Given the primacy of the fight against al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, if we have in the future certainty of knowledge, then of course the United States would always have the option of taking action on its own," Burns said during questioning before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "But we prefer to work with the Pakistani forces, and we, in most situations -- nearly every situation -- do work with them."

The statements were prompted by lawmakers' questions about an intelligence assessment released last week that concluded that a resurgent al-Qaeda was using a rugged, largely autonomous tribal area of northwestern Pakistan as a sanctuary for planning attacks against the United States.

Previous assessments had said only that al-Qaeda leaders were operating in the frontier area between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The new assessment suggested that Pakistan had not been effective in waging war against the terrorist group and its allies.

At a news conference last week, Frances Fragos Townsend, the homeland security adviser, said the administration would pursue "actionable targets anywhere in the world, putting aside whether it was Pakistan or anyplace else." Those remarks prompted a strong reaction from Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which warned that a U.S. military strike would be "irresponsible and dangerous," as well as deeply resented throughout the country.

"We have stated in the clearest terms that any attack inside our territory would be unacceptable," the ministry said in a formal statement released Tuesday in Islamabad.

Officials at both hearings said Pakistan remains a strong ally in the war against al-Qaeda. James R. Clapper Jr., the Pentagon's top intelligence official, said the Musharraf government is not "doing 100 percent of everything we might like," but he added, "I think they are doing what they can, given the constraints."

Clapper noted that new efforts by Pakistan to rout al-Qaeda out of its haven "are only in the first week or so of implementation, and so at this point it is much too early to try to provide an assessment of the impact of these latest Pakistani moves."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...072501776.html

Jag

[Sean Osborne]

The Pakistani government of Pervez Musharraf is suddenly staggered perilously close to collapse. Some of his senior advisors have called on him to step down. Musharraf is currently in Saudi Arabia seeking Saudi input on the options available to them both. Pakistani military forces buttress Saudi security needs. Should Pakistan fall to Islamist-Taliban-Al Qaeda forces Saudi Arabia would also be in direct peril. More importantly, Islamists in Pakistan would immediately become nuclear armed by default.

[Jag]

Pakistan leader snubs Afghan meeting

By JASON STRAZIUSO, Associated Press Writer



KABUL, Afghanistan - Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf pulled out of a meeting of more than 600 Pakistani and Afghan tribal leaders on Wednesday, an apparent snub to a U.S.-backed strategy to stem rising border violence that has destabilized both countries.

Afghan officials shrugged off the pull-out, saying that tribal leaders — the countries' ground-level powerbrokers — would still attend the session Thursday in Kabul, to be held under a white tent where the country's post-Taliban Constitution was hammered out in 2004.

A Pakistani political analyst said Musharraf's action was likely meant to send a message to Washington, where officials have recently criticized Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts, and suggested the U.S. could carry out unilateral military strikes against al-Qaida in Pakistan.

"He is trying to convey a strong message to the United States. There have been a lot of statements coming out of Washington about violating Pakistan's sovereignty and so on," said Talat Masood, a former Pakistani general.

A U.S. State Department official said the Bush administration was surprised and dismayed by Musharraf's snub, particularly after Afghan President Hamid Karzai repeatedly expressed satisfaction about the meeting during a joint appearance with President Bush on Monday.

State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said it was unclear if Musharraf could be persuaded to reconsider.

"We'll see if President Musharraf is able to attend any portion of the meeting," McCormack said.
The main focus of the 650 delegates to the four-day "peace jirga" — 350 from Afghanistan and about 300 from Pakistan — will be security and terrorism, but they will also talk about economic development and fighting drugs.

Taliban representatives are not involved, and the conference is being boycotted by delegates from Pakistan's restive South and North Waziristan regions amid fear of Taliban reprisals.

Critics say those who have real control over the violence are the Taliban and their supporters in the tribal belt and that talks that do not include them could prove to be futile. The absence of Musharraf, Pakistan's army chief and most powerful figure, could further undermine its effectiveness.

"This is only a display, which cannot produce the true views of the Afghan people," Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, secretary-general of Pakistan's pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, which runs the government in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan, and is also boycotting.

Pakistan's Foreign Office said Musharraf had phoned Karzai Wednesday to say he couldn't attend because of "engagements" in Islamabad, and that Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz would take his place.

Afghan officials said the jirga would proceed as planned without Musharraf, and they were still optimistic about its prospects.

"From the Afghanistan side, all the people who hold power are participating," said Mohammed Mohaqeq, Afghanistan's No. 2 delegate.

Masood said Musharraf's cancellation revealed tensions between the neighbors.

"It shows that the chemistry between Karzai and him (Musharraf) is so poor that he wants to back out at the last minute," he said. "Why call him just hours before the jirga? I don't see why he could not go to Kabul for a few hours."

In an interview broadcast Wednesday but apparently recorded before Musharraf's withdrawal, Karzai acknowledged "difficulties" between his country and Pakistan, but said the two sides must work together to rid them both of the "nest of snakes" that is al-Qaida.


Karzai described Musharraf as his "friend and his brother" in the interview with Pakistan's Geo TV.
He also urged Taliban chief Mullah Omar and militant leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to join the government in its efforts to rebuild the country.

The idea of the jirga emerged from a September 2006 meeting in Washington of President Bush, Karzai and Musharraf that focused on ways to combat rising border violence.

The Taliban were ousted by U.S.-led forces in late 2001 but U.S. and Afghan officials say they now enjoy a safe haven in Pakistani border regions, particularly Waziristan, where Washington also fears al-Qaida is regrouping.

The Taliban has stepped up attacks in the past two years. The violence has killed thousands and raised fears for Afghanistan's fledgling democracy.

Pakistan says it has some 90,000 troops battling militants in the region, and that it is no terrorist haven.
Afghanistan's delegates to the jirga, including tribal leaders, lawmakers, businessmen and clerics, were decided on by a 20-member commission approved by Karzai. Pakistan's government selected its delegation of senior officials, tribal leaders and journalists.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070808/...uiCfz3Fj6s0NUE

Jag

[American Patriot]

Wow....


Things aren't looking very good right now are they?

Sounds bad. They may be about to declare a state of emergency. Pakistan has nukes.

What happens if those fall into someone else's hands?



The nuclear war on terrorism, that's what.

[Luke]

Pakistan and India have been at odds for quite some time, perhaps we should seek to enlist some favors from India when the SHTF. Might as well add the Hindu's to the Crusade.

I never hear about Buddest Extremist, although I believe it was Buddest Monks that used to set themselves on fire during the Viet Nam era, in protest to government policies.

Isn't it odd how everyone thinks God is on their side? Luckily God always ends up on the winning side, guess that is why he/she is God.

In the matter of nuclear weapons, I wonder if we know where such things are located in Pakistan? I would imagine we have a good idea and would take steps to secure such items in the event of government failure.

[American Patriot]

What I'm seeing is that things are rapidly collapsing over there. Nukes are perhaps under control of government forces at the moment, but what happens if suddenly that's no longer the case?

[Jag]

Pakistan to Detain Bhutto in Bid to Stop Protest March

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Nov. 12 — The Pakistani police issued a seven-day detention order against the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, in a bid to stop her from leading a planned protest march this week from the eastern city of Lahore to the capital, Islamabad.

Ms. Bhutto will be prevented from leaving her house in Lahore if she tries to lead protesters, said a government spokesman, Tariq Azim Khan, citing intelligence data suggesting that she could be a target for militants.

Ms. Bhutto survived a suicide-bombing attack last month in Karachi when she returned to Pakistan from eight years in self-imposed exile to lead her party in parliamentary elections.

“If she does tomorrow try and lead the rally, we’ll say, ‘for God’s sake don’t do it’ because we have reliable information that you are a target,” Mr. Khan said.

Ms. Bhutto has vowed to go ahead with the protest regardless of government orders, but after Monday’s announcement its chances appeared slim.

The government, now nine days into an emergency decree that has effectively put Pakistan under martial law, would stop the protest in the same way it shut down a rally that had been planned by Ms. Bhutto on Friday, Mr. Khan said.

On that day, in a huge show of force, lines of policemen, barbed wire and concrete barricades confined Ms. Bhutto to her home in Islamabad. At the same time, thousands of police officers locked down the site where the rally was to have taken place, in a park in Rawalpindi, the garrison town close to Islamabad.

Mr. Khan said he did not know the details of how the police would prevent protesters from converging on the route of the planned march this week, 160 miles through Punjab Province from Lahore to Islamabad.

About 140 of Ms. Bhutto’s party workers were killed in the attack in Karachi on Oct. 18. The government has used that attack as public justification for stopping her protests. It has also made clear that any demonstrations are illegal under the emergency decree.

The decree has also cast uncertainty on parliamentary elections, scheduled for early January.

Two of Pakistan’s bigger opposition parties said Monday they would probably boycott the elections if emergency rule was still in place. Ms. Bhutto has not yet said whether she would pull her party, the Pakistan Peoples Party, out of the election.

The president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, said on Sunday that the elections would be held in January and that emergency rule would continue at least until then.

On Sunday, Ms. Bhutto called the announcement a “positive” but insufficient step. She assumed a slightly tougher tone on Monday, suggesting that her negotiations with General Musharraf had come to an end.

“We cannot work with anyone who has suspended the Constitution, imposed emergency rule and oppressed the judiciary,” she said in Lahore. “We are saying no to any more talks.”

Raza Zafarul Haz, the chairman of one of the country’s biggest parties, the Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, said that for free and fair elections to go ahead, emergency rule would have to be lifted and that judges who were fired after the imposition of emergency rule must be reinstated.

“Under the current circumstances it is very difficult to expect there will be fair elections in the country,” Mr. Haz said. His party will make its final decision in the coming week, he said.

Liaqat Baloch, the secretary general of Pakistan’s most popular Islamic party, Jamaat-e-Islami, said the party was considering withholding its candidates if the emergency was still in place in January.

Despite Ms. Bhutto’s tougher comments Monday, analysts said they believed she had not completely moved away from her original plan, devised with the backing of the Bush administration, to seek some kind of conciliation with General Musharraf in a power-sharing deal.

As the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party, which has traditionally commanded about a third of the popular vote on a populist platform, Ms. Bhutto is trying to steer a path between a desire to return to power and not to appear to be too close to the widely unpopular president.

Ms. Bhutto was prime minister of Pakistan twice and was twice dismissed before she completed her term. She has made no secret of the fact that she would like be prime minister once again.

She remained closeted at a house in Lahore on Monday, meeting party aides and planning strategy for the protest march across Punjab Province. In order to keep her people united under her banner, she has vowed to go ahead with the protest, which she has dubbed a “long march,” even if the authorities try to shut it down.

One aide said the party was not afraid of “a battlefield” between party workers and the police.

The chances of such a long protest going ahead along such an exposed route through the center of Pakistan seemed slim, however.

A major Pakistan daily newspaper, The News, reported Monday that one of General Musharraf’s chief political operatives, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who is also the powerful chief minister of Punjab, thought that the general’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League, was well placed to win in the January elections.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/13/wo...ld&oref=slogin

Jag

[eversman]

It is my beleif that the elections will be held. in the interim, martial law will stand. Bhutto and all other political opponents of Musharraf will be kept at bay and under wraps. while this is ongoing the army will be unable to stop the steady march of Taliban and Al Qaeda attacks on towns in the NWF and the tribal areas. point blank, the army fought a battle their, and the pakistani army was un able to meet the challenge. mass defections out of fear, religious reasons, loyalty to the enemy instead of musharraf....lack of troops to deal with the threat, an enemy who fights much harder and is much more savage than the paki army, add to that mounting casualties, and a cause they see as lost, coupled with the fact that their heart is definitely not in the fight....well the paki army is ineffective, and un able to prevent anything the taliban and al qaeda attempt. in effect, pakistan is alreadya defacto islamic owned state, the overthrow of the pakistani government is a mere formality i think.

This is something everyone realizes, except musharraf. i dont think he knows just how heavily riddled and penetrated ISI and the military are. most important though, he doesnt realize just how penetrated the nuclear armaments industry and research community of pakistan is. there are tens of cases, upwards of fifty, of paki scientists aiding al qaeda's nuclear effort. i mean both the research effort and the acquisition effort.

If they in the nuclear industry in pakistan get even a HINT of musharraf's government falling, they will IMMEDIATELY start arming al qaeda. there will be no one to stop them. there may not be anyone to stop them NOW.

Some other food for thought. most of the nuclear complexes are in the area of the country that Al Qaeda and the Taliban are now attacking in and struggling to gain complete control of. The scary thought is they, al qaeda, are winning.

its a matter of time before al qaeda and ISI murder musharraf and bhutto, and take control of the nuclear complex and the political government of pakistan.

[Jag]

Musharraf Rival Linked to Bin Laden

November 30, 2007 10:06 AM
Maddy Sauer Reports:
The former prime minister of Pakistan, now one of President Pervez Musharraf's chief political rivals, once received a million-dollar payoff from Osama Bin Laden as a thanks for not cracking down on the militant tribal areas in Pakistan's northwest border province, according to a former member of bin Laden's inner circle.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted by Musharraf in a 1999 coup, returned to Pakistan earlier this week after spending seven years in exile living in Saudi Arabia.

When in power, Sharif aggravated the United States by detonating Pakistan's first nuclear weapon and turning a blind eye to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now a former member of bin Laden's inner circle is saying that Sharif was handsomely rewarded by bin Laden for his policies.

Ali Mohamed served as a special projects coordinator for bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al Zawahri in the mid-1990s. Mohamed, who is now in a U.S. prison for his role in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Africa, has been cooperating with the FBI and providing them with a wealth of information on the inner workings of al Qaeda.

Former FBI agent and ABC News consultant Jack Cloonan has questioned Mohamed over a period of years and believes the information he has provided to U.S. authorities is accurate.

Cloonan says that back in 1999 Mohamed told the FBI he arranged for a meeting between bin Laden and Sharif's representatives. Following that meeting, Mohamed told Cloonan he delivered $1 million to Sharif's representatives. Mohamed said the payoff was a tribute to Sharif for not cracking down on the Taliban as it flourished in Afghanistan and influenced the Northwest Frontier Province in Pakistan, according to Cloonan.

This is not the first time that allegations of a connection between Sharif and bin Laden have surfaced. Khalid Khawaja, a former official of the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence agency and now a prominent human rights activist there, told the Blotter on ABCNews.com that the connection goes all the way back to the late 1980s when, he says, Sharif and bin Laden met face-to-face. Khawaja, who describes himself as a very close friend of bin Laden's, says that political candidates in Pakistan cannot talk openly if they support bin Laden because of American pressure on them.

The information secretary for Pakistan Muslim League -- Nawaz Sharif's political party -- Siddiqul Farooq has previously denied that Sharif and bin Laden had ever met. Calls and an e-mail sent to the league's headquarters regarding the latest allegations were not immediately returned.

Aside from the allegations about Sharif, Mohamed has provided the FBI with details on many other plots and tactics used by al Qaeda, said Cloonan. Mohamed was given numerous surveillance assignments over the years, including targets such as the U.S. embassies in Africa, U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia, a vacation home in Marbella, Spain owned by the Saudi royal family and a TV tower in Cyprus, Cloonan said. Mohamed was also in charge of selecting bin Laden's personal security team.

Jag

[eversman]

looking back at what i wrote on this thread, it seems more correct, and more accurate now than when i wrote it.

ev

[Jag]

UPDATED ON:
Saturday, September 20, 2008
19:49 Mecca time, 16:49 GMT

Dozens dead in Pakistan hotel blast

At least 40 people were killed and 100 wounded in the explosion at the Marriott [AFP] At least 40 people have been killed and 100 others wounded after a car-bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Pakistan's capital Islamabad. Reports said a suicide bomber drove a car packed with explosives into the entrance of the hotel. Many foreigners stay in the hotel while visiting Pakistan and it is heavily guarded. The blast resounded through Islamabad. There were reports of bodies being carried away from the hotel as emergency services continued to rescue people trapped in the hotel. Casualties Reuters news agency reported that at least 40 people had been killed. Police sources also said the death toll stood at 40. Kamal Hyder, Al Jazeera's correspondent reporting from Islamabad, said it is "probably the most powerful explosion [in Pakistan] in recent times". "Fires are still raging and no one knows how many people have been kileld in the explosion." He said ambulances were still arriving at the scene, indicating that there "must be high casualties indeed". "Whoever is responsible for this attack chose his target carefully. A very professionaly carried out job," said Hyder. Talat Masood, a military analyst, told Al Jazeera that the attack was "well-planned and co-ordinated". Imran Khan, also reporting for Al Jazeera, said he had seen a number of bodies removed from the scene of the explosion. He said the driver of the vehicle didn't go through the security checkpoint. "This is a massive explosion. Fire is spreading very quickly and has taken over the entire first floor of the hotel," Khan said. Soldiers killed The Islamabad bombing came on the heels of another which left at least eight Pakistani soldiers dead in a suicide attack on a military convoy in the country's northwest tribal region. The attack took place as the troops passed through North Waziristan on Saturday, a security official said. "Eight soldiers have died and some 12 others were injured," the official said, adding the death toll may increase. Al Jazeera's Hyder said many soldiers had been killed in attacks in the area before. "This attack occurred on a stretch of road that has become known as IED-ally," he said, referring to the acronym for an improvised explosive device. A blast on Friday in Quetta at a religious school killed five students [AFP] North Waziristan, which borders Afghanistan, is a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters and has been the scene of fierce battles and suicide attacks over the past several years. A large number of Arab and Central Asian fighters linked to al-Qaeda are reported to be hiding near the town of Mir Ali, the site of Saturday's attack, officials said. Pakistan's new government has committed itself to the US-led campaign against the fighters even though the campaign is unpopular throughout the country. A senior official in the administration of George Bush, the US president, said on Friday Pakistan was not equipped to combat the fighters. "This is a problem that's been created in sovereign Pakistani territory and the problem is going to be solved when Pakistan has an ability to exercise control over that territory," Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, said. "We recognise that in the short term right now there are threats emanating out of that area that threaten Pakistan, that threaten our troops in Afghanistan and potentially threaten the homeland." Madrassa blast Saturday's violence came a day after an explosion at an Islamic school, known as a madrassa, near the Pakistani city of Quetta, killed five students and wounded eleven others, according to Pakistani police. "The madrassa people say that someone threw explosives into it, but we are investigating," Wazir Khan Nasir, a police official, said, referring to Friday's incident. "We are looking into all possibilities including ... whether they were preparing some explosives," another official said. Quetta is the capital of Baluchistan, a southwestern province bordering Afghanistan, where a large number of madrassas were set up in the 1980s to raise volunteers to fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in a war covertly funded by the United States and Saudi Arabia. The Taliban came from the Baluchistan madrassas. But Baluchistan is also fiercely independent inside Pakistan and ethnic Baluch fighters are battling Pakistani security forces for more autonomy for their region.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/as...179932320.html

Jag

[Jag]

Pakistani Taliban claims huge explosion killing at least 40 at Islamabad hotel

DEBKAfile Special Report
September 20, 2008, 7:17 PM (GMT+02:00)
Islamabad Marriott Hotel victim of horrendous terror attack

The five-star Marriott Hotel in the Pakistan capital is burning down and may collapse.

A large truck carrying tons of explosives detonated at the hotel gate killing at least 40 people and causing horrific damage to the large hotel, which is favored by foreigners and the choice of US officials. Many people are trapped inside. The bomb driven by a suicide bomber left a huge crater and destroyed cars and neighboring buildings. The US-owned Marriott has been attacked by terrorists twice before.

According to some sources, a group of CIA officers just arrived in Islamabad may have been targeted. The Pakistani Tehreek e-Taliban claimed the blast which DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources note came four days after the US embassy in Sanaa was attacked by Islamic terrorists, killing seventeen people.

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff was quoted by the LA Times Saturday as reporting that US military advisers would arrive in Islamabad within weeks to train the Pakistan army in counterinsurgency warfare courses.

A few hours earlier, new Pakistan president Asif Ali Zardari pledged to fight terrorism in his first address to parliament. While the ongoing military campaign against fighters in the tribal region is unpopular, Zardari was applauded when he declared Pakistan would not tolerate violation of its sovereignty by “any power” – a reference to the recent US cross-border raids and missile attacks against al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistani tribal lands.

In the North Waziristan, at least eight Pakistani soldiers were killed in a suicide attack on their military convoy Saturday.

A large number of Arab and Central Asian fighters linked to al Qaeda are reported to be hiding near the town of Mir Ali, the site of Saturday's attack.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5596

Jag

[American Patriot]

I have heard more than 60 killed and two were American, DOD employees.

[vector7]

The gloves are off in Pakistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JI23Df01.html

KARACHI - Pakistani authorities have compared Saturday evening's devastating truck suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel in the capital Islamabad to the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

In terms of its psychological effect, the blast, which killed more than 80 people, injured hundreds and burnt out the hotel, has traumatized the nation, and, like 9/11, marks the beginning of a new battle: this time not the "war on terror", but the war by terrorists.

Pakistan is now the declared battleground in this struggle by Islamic militants to strike first against American interests before the United States' war machine completes its preparations to storm the sanctuaries of al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

The attack on one of the hotels in the chain of the US Marriott group was one of the worst in Pakistan's history and involved the sophisticated use of over 600 kilograms of TNT explosive blended with RDX and phosphorous, detonated when a truck rammed into a security barricade in front of the hotel

Among the dead were the Czech ambassador to Pakistan, two US Marines, members of the US embassy staff, Saudi nationals and other European diplomats. More than 250 people were injured and dozens of parked cars were destroyed.

There was immediate speculation the attack was prompted by the fact of many marines living in the top floor of the hotel. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani claimed the real target was his residence, where President Asif Ali Zardari, army chiefs of staff and the entire cabinet were gathered for an Iftar (Muslim breaking of the Ramadan fast) dinner. Security was so tight, the theory goes, that the driver instead went to the nearby Marriott.

But on Monday afternoon, Rehman Malik, the Pakistani prime minister's advisor for the interior, told a group of reporters at the Islamabad airport: "An Iftar Dinner was scheduled at Marriot on September which was hosted by National Assembly Speaker Dr Fahmida Mirza and where all dignitaries including the prime minister, president, cabinet and all services chiefs were invited. However, at the eleventh hour the dinner was shifted to rime minster's house which saved Pakistan's entired military and political leadership."

"Perhaps, the earlier information of the dinner was leaked to the militants and therefore they hit Marriot hotel,"Rehman added.

However, Asia Times Online's investigations, including talks with highly placed security experts, indicate that the Marriott attack signals the opening of a major battle which is about to start in Pakistan in a new phase of the "war on terror".

Preparations for a new battle
Saturday's blast occurred on the day of Zardari's first presidential address to a joint session of parliament, after which he was due to depart for New York for the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.

He was also scheduled to meet leading US officials to discuss contentious issues in the "war on terror", especially the US's aggressive military incursions into Pakistan's tribal areas in recent weeks to attack al-Qaeda figures and militants.

Already, though, events had been set in motion to shape this new battlefield.

Approximately 20 kilometers from Islamabad lies Tarbella, the brigade headquarters of Pakistan's Special Operation Task Force (SOTF). Recently, 300 American officials landed at this facility, with the official designation as a "training advisory group", according to documents seen by Asia Times Online.

However, high-level contacts claim this is not as simple as a training program.

In the mid-1990s, during the government of Nawaz Sharif, a special US Central Intelligence Agency unit was based at the same facility, tasked with catching Osama bin Laden. They left after Pervez Musharraf came to power in a coup in 1999.

Now, the US has bought a huge plot of land at Tarbella, several square kilometers, according to sources directly handling the project. Recently, 20 large containers arrived at the facility. They were handled by the Americans, who did not allow any Pakistani officials to inspect them.

Given the size of the containers, it is believed they contain special arms and ammunition and even tanks and armored vehicles - and certainly have nothing to do with any training program.

There is little doubt in the minds of those familiar with the American activities at Tarbella that preparations are being made for an all-out offensive in North-West Frontier Province against sanctuaries belonging to the Taliban and al-Qaeda led by bin Laden. Pakistani security sources maintain more American troops will arrive in the coming days.

Pakistan recently offered ceasefire agreements to militants in the North Waziristan and South Waziristan tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan. These were not only summarily rejected, but followed with attacks in the two Waziristans on security forces, and then the Marriott operation.

For both the militants and the United States, the gloves have come off. Clearly, Washington is concerned at the lack of progress in clipping the wings of the militancy in Pakistan (read al-Qaeda fugitives) and that the Taliban have bases in Pakistan to fuel their insurgency in Afghanistan.

In the crucial few weeks before the US presidential elections there is nothing the George W Bush administration would like more than a real smoking gun to justify the long years of its "war on terror". The soldiers now based Tarbella are on the trail. But so are the militants.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online

[vector7]

Islamabad Bomb Had Secret Ingredient

By David Hambling
September 22, 2008 | 9:06:00

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/0...tt-attack.html
Saturday's terrorist attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, caused massive destruction and loss of life. One of the reasons why:

The bomb contained a lethal accelerant, found in some of the world's most powerful munitions.

The BBC coverage of the bombing notes:
Aluminum powder has long been used to boost the power of explosives.

Blast weapons like the 15,000-pound BLU-82 Daisy Cutter and the 21,600-pound "Mother of All Bombs" use it to increase their destructive force.

Devices with a high proportion of metal powder to explosive are termed "thermobaric." When the explosive goes off, the metal powder at the leading edge of the fireball burns as it contacts the air.

With a crude device, the powder simply burns and adds to the fireball. In more advanced weapons, the burning metal produces a sub-sonic shockwave (known as deflagration); the most advanced produce a detonation (supersonic shockwave) of tremendous destructive power.

I noted the potential risk from terrorist thermobaric devices back in 2004.

Normal, condensed explosives produce a very short pressure pulse.

A "volumetric" one, from a detonating fireball, produces an extended blast pulse that is far more damaging to buildings. The Marriott attack left a large crater, indicating that much of the blast came from a point source. The metal powder seems to have contributed only to the incendiary effects.

According to the Guardian, "the temperature had reached 400C, investigators said, which made the hotel's sprinkler system and the fire service useless."

By all accounts, there was a long delay before the device went off, with the truck burning sometime before the explosion. (See the video, above.) This was not a device built by master bombmakers. And the hotel's security barrier performed a vital function of keeping the bomb away from the building. Distance is life in these situations. (Compare the Marriott blast with the Oklahoma City bombing; there was a lot of structural damage to the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, because McVeigh was able to drive right up to it.) However, a thermobaric blast would extend the radius of effect of such a truck bomb significantly.

The blast and fire damage at the Islamabad Marriott were severe enough as it was. But a similar device with enhanced engineering could have leveled the building and caused far worse casualties. Terrorists showed that one of the most secure buildings in Islamabad was still vulnerable to attack, but there was far less damage than there might have been.

[vector7]

US denies helicopter incursion into Pakistan
By ISHTIAQ MAHSUD, Associated Press Writer Mon Sep 22, 2:09 PM ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080922/...as_pakistan_us

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan - Pakistani troops and tribesmen opened fire on two U.S. helicopters that crossed into the country from neighboring Afghanistan, intelligence officials said Monday. The U.S. denied the report.

The helicopters did not return fire and re-entered Afghan airspace without landing, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to media.

"There was no such incursion, there was no such event," said Col. Gary L. Keck, Defense Department spokesman.

The reported incursion late Sunday will likely add to tensions between Islamabad and Washington.

A spate of suspected U.S. missile strikes into Pakistan's border region and a raid by U.S. commandos said to have killed 15 people have angered and embarrassed Pakistani leaders while signaling Washington's impatience with Pakistani efforts to clear out militant havens.

During a recent speech to Parliament, newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari, who is considered U.S.-friendly, warned that no country would be allowed to violate Pakistan's sovereignty in the name of the war on terror.

Zardari is on his way to New York to attend the U.N. General Assembly, and he is expected to meet President Bush.

The two intelligence officials said informants in the field told them the incursion was about a mile inside the disputed and poorly demarcated border in the Alwara Mandi area in North Waziristan, a tribal region the U.S. considers a sanctuary for Taliban and al-Qaida fighters.

A week ago, U.S. helicopters reportedly landed near Angoor Ada, a border village in nearby South Waziristan, but returned toward Afghanistan after troops fired warning shots.

A Pakistani military spokesman said last week that troops had orders to open fire in case of another cross-border raid by foreign troops.

The U.S. cross-border attacks have angered Pakistanis and analysts said the weekend suicide bombing of the Marriott hotel in Islamabad may have been a warning from al-Qaida and the Taliban to the Pakistani government to end cooperation with U.S. in fighting militants. The attack prompted foreign diplomatic missions and aid groups in Pakistan to review their security status.

The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad warned its employees Monday to limit their movement to travel to and from the Embassy and to shopping for essential items only. American consulates in Lahore and Peshawar reminded their personnel to avoid large hotels in those cities. The Embassy warned all Americans to stay away from crowds, keep a low profile, and avoid setting patterns by varying times and routes for all required travel.
__

Associated Press writers Zarar Khan in Islamabad contributed to this report.

[vector7]

U.S., Pakistani troops exchange fire

Fri Sep 26, 2008 5:48am IST
By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. and Pakistani ground forces exchanged fire across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border on Thursday, the latest in a string of incidents that has ratcheted up diplomatic tension between the two allies.

No casualties or injuries were reported after Pakistani forces shot at two U.S. helicopters from a Pakistani border post. U.S. and Pakistani officials clashed over whether the American helicopters had entered Pakistan.

The incident follows a U.S. campaign of attacks on militant targets inside Pakistan, including a Sept. 3 U.S. commando raid on a village compound in South Waziristan. Islamabad has protested those strikes and warned it would defend itself.

"Just as we will not let Pakistan's territory be used by terrorists for attacks against our people and our neighbors, we cannot allow our territory and our sovereignty to be violated by our friends," Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari said in New York on Thursday.

But in Washington, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman insisted the helicopters had not entered Pakistan. He described the incident as "troubling" and called on Islamabad for an explanation.

"The flight path of the helicopters at no point took them over Pakistan," he said. "The Pakistanis have to provide us with a better understanding of why this took place."

According to Pakistan's military, its soldiers fired warning shots at two U.S. helicopters after they intruded into Pakistani airspace. The U.S. military said the helicopters were protecting a patrol about one mile (1.6 km) inside Afghanistan when Pakistani forces opened fire.

UNCERTAIN BORDER
"The (helicopters) did not return fire but the ground forces fired suppressive fire at that outpost. The Pakistani forces then returned that fire. The whole exchange lasted about five minutes," said an official with U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military operations in Afghanistan.

The U.S. forces were operating under NATO command.

Thursday's confrontation followed a dispute earlier this week over reports of a downed U.S. drone in Pakistan. Pakistani officials said a small unmanned American aircraft crashed in Pakistan, but U.S. officials denied it, saying a drone went down in Afghanistan and was recovered.

The rugged border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan is seen by Washington as critical to its fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban. The Bush administration considers Pakistan an ally in counterterrorism but U.S. officials say Islamabad has not done enough against militants there.

The uncertain border also complicates efforts, making it difficult for forces to determine when they are in Afghanistan or Pakistan, both U.S. and Pakistani officials concede.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, after meeting Zardari on Thursday, said she believed he was strongly committed to fighting militants.

"We talked about how we might assist Pakistan in doing what it needs to do, but I think there is a very strong commitment. And after all, it is the same enemy," she said in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.

http://in.reuters.com/article/southA...080926?sp=true

[vector7]

Bomb Threat Puts Pakistan On "Red Alert"

Heightened Security Put In Place At All Airports After Threat; Pakistani Soldiers Fire On U.S. Choppers In Unrelated Incident

Comments 18
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Sept. 25, 2008

1 | 2 | 3

A Pakistani police officer sits in a bunker while tribal people flee their villages in Pir Kalan, in the troubled area of Mohmand near Peshawar, Pakistan on Sept 24, 2008. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

Pakistan In Crisis
Political strife, protests and violent attacks torment nation struggling for stability.

Stories

• Pakistan Militants Threaten More Bombs

• Pakistan Claims To Shoot Down U.S. Drone

(CBS/AP) This story was written by CBS News' Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad and CBSNews.com's Tucker Reals in London.

---

Pakistan's security officials put all of the country's airports on "red alert" Thursday after intelligence warnings of a suicide attack.

"We had very credible information of a suicide attempt in Islamabad which prompted this step," a senior security official told CBS News' Farhan Bokhari. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to address the matter.

The security official said the heightened security was prompted by information gained through the interrogation of a recently arrested militant suspect, but he declined to identify the suspect or say when or where the person was taken into custody.

In a conflicting report, an airport official in Islamabad told the Associated Press that the threat came from an anonymous phone call. Col. Ashraf Faiz, a senior airport security officer, told the AP that the airport hit the panic button on Thursday after an unidentified man called an office of Pakistan's national airline, saying a suicide bomber was about to attack it.

At the country's largest airport, in the capital city of Islamabad, only passengers with valid tickets were allowed to enter the airport until Thursday afternoon. A government official said the emergency security measures were under constant review.

Deepening the sense of crisis, the U.S. government has barred its personnel from major hotels and even restaurants and urged all Americans in Pakistan to do likewise.

The United Nations and other foreign missions are mulling whether to crank up security precautions, and expatriate staff and dependents are bracing for instructions to quit the country.

British Airways, whose flights are usually busy with staff from the vast British consular section in Islamabad, has canceled flights to Pakistan indefinitely, citing security concerns.

Thursday's warning came less than a week after a devastating bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad which left at least 53 people dead and more than 260 injured.

A Western defense official in Islamabad told Bokhari there were reports of a number of al Qaeda plans "in the pipeline to attack locations across Pakistan to destabilize the country."

According to a report Wednesday in Pakistan's Daily Times newspaper, intelligence agencies informed the police that three explosives-laden trucks had entered the capital city - one of them known to have been destroyed in the Marriott Hotel attack last Saturday.

Citing anonymous sources, the newspaper said the whereabouts of the other two trucks remained a mystery, but they were believed to be within Islamabad city limits.

It was not immediately clear whether there was a link between the missing trucks reported by the Daily Times and the move by officials to put airports on "red alert" Thursday morning.

Speaking to CBS News on condition of anonymity, the Western official said al Qaeda's central goal was to force Pakistan's leaders to abandon their support for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.

The bulk of logistical supplies for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan pass through Pakistan.

Despite the constant warnings of al Qaeda plots from Pakistani and Western officials in the region, it was another, far-lesser-known group which claimed responsibility for the Marriott Hotel attack over the weekend.

That group, which calls itself "Fedayeen al-Islam" (Soldiers of Islam) issued a new warning on Wednesday threatening further attacks on any entity deemed supportive of the United States.

In an English language telephone message to reporters, the group said "all those who will facilitate Americans and NATO crusaders … will keep on receiving the blows."

CBS News research shows the group has claimed responsibility for at least one previous attack in Pakistan, but that claim was later debunked by a more credible claim by al Qaeda.

Neither the veracity of the group's claim over the Marriott attack, nor its threat made Wednesday could be confirmed by CBS News. No further claims of responsibility had surfaced on the Internet or in other media Thursday.

The bombing and the new threats underscored the danger Islamist militants pose to Pakistan, where al Qaeda and Taliban fighters have established bases in tribal regions along the border with Afghanistan.

The U.S. has pushed Pakistan to crack down on the northwest bases, even launching its own attacks, but those American strikes have drawn sharp condemnation from Pakistani leaders, who say they kill civilians, fan extremism and violate their sovereignty.

Pakistan's army has threatened to resist future incursions, and the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan said that Pakistani troops fired at two American helicopters patrolling the border on Thursday.

A coalition spokesman said the choppers, which weren't hit, neither crossed the border nor returned fire.

The Pakistani military disputed that assertion, saying its troops fired warning shots when the two helicopters crossed over the border - and that the U.S. helicopters fired back. But President Asif Ali Zardari, speaking in New York, said his troops only fired flares.

© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[eversman]

I, for one, SERIOUSLY want to see daily, repeated airstrikes using A-10 warthog and apache gunships, on any pakistani border station or patrol we can find. any one else see things the same way? i give it a week of this, and i think they will get the message.

if they are now bold enough to shoot at american forces openly, what else are they doing with al qaeda and the taliban behind the scenes? no surpises there either. lets start using tactical aircraft to make them pay a price for that tacit and overt support at the border.



ev