Is it a New Warsaw Pact?

[Ryan Ruck]

Is it a New Warsaw Pact?

Softened especially after the collapse of Soviets, East-West relations have undoubtedly been able to take a breather. Notably, no long-term tensions have occurred in U.S.-Russian relations in this period. Some disturbance between Russia and China, who remain relatively silent before the U.S. as only super power, was experienced when the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" (SCO) came to the agenda. Left uneasy by the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle Eastern project, Russia threatened missile retaliation against the U.S. construction of a missile shield in Europe, found itself in dog fight with British fighter jets and erected a Russian flag in the North Pole to express its displeasure.

It is also important that Russian President Vladimir Putin in his statements expressed the Russian disturbance by U.S. foreign policy and its developing relations with the Republics that were gaining independence. Russia and China were forced to establish a new bloc due to the U.S. settlement in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. attitude toward Iran and its gradual gaining of more power. The SCO, led by Russia, opens a new era between the East and the West. The policy Russia has followed for some time raised the question of to the minds of people: "Is this the beginning of the second Cold War period?"

President Putin, criticizing U.S. foreign policy in every speech, disclosed one more time in an SCO meeting held in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek that "the SCO wants a multi-polar structure and U.S. hegemony is unacceptable." Though bilateral economic relations, mainly in the energy field, do not allow the tension, some circles believe that at least the Cold War will escalate.

A new block in the making?

The participation of Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, India and Turkmenistan in the SCO as observer countries is widely seen as the formation of a new block, raising another question: "Is a new Warsaw Pact being formed?" NATO circles, as the eternal rivals of the Warsaw Pact, are closely following the demands of the SCO in order to organize military operations regularly.

NATO, surviving until today in the light of a new strategic concept developed after Soviet disintegration, will undoubtedly be forced to review its own strategy.

It is difficult to predict today how the U.S.' Middle Eastern Project and the American-Iranian crisis will turn out, but it is also difficult to make an assessment on the present situation while Iran resists and if Russia and China will continue to support Iran. Another question is to what degree Russian and Chinese interests in relations with the U.S. will affect the Iran factor. China adopts a more prudent and forbearing attitude compared to Russia. It would be beneficial for Turkey, also, to be careful and patient in regards to a U.S. foreign policy that is greatly disturbed by Chinese and Russian relations with Iran. Initiatives undertaken by Turkey, particularly in the fields of energy and natural gas, originate from the country's needs. It is important for Turkish-American relations that Turkey be able to explain this to the U.S. and for the U.S. to be understanding of this.

Otherwise, another crisis--like the March 1 deployment note--between the U.S. and Turkey would bring no good to either of the parties. The United Nations resolutions and European Union decisions and policies are also of importance. In short, Turkish policies born out of needs should be understood well.

Turkey is a country that had been defending the West against the Soviet threat for years, though at the cost of remaining in NATO. Unfortunately both the U.S. and Europe seem to have forgotten this. If the future of SCO is kept in mind, some of the facts will be expected to come to day-light again.

It is necessary for the U.S. and Europe to re-evaluate their faulty policies over against the developing SCO.

[Ryan Ruck]

Russia, China, Iran Warn U.S. At Summit

The leaders of Russia, China and Iran said Thursday that Central Asia should be left alone to manage its stability and security — an apparent warning to the United States to avoid interfering in the strategic, resource-rich region.

The veiled warning came at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and on the eve of major war games between Russia and China.

The SCO was created 11 years ago to address religious extremism and border security in Central Asia, but in recent years, with countries such as Iran signing on as observers, it has grown into a bloc aimed at defying U.S. interests in the region.

"Stability and security in Central Asia are best ensured primarily through efforts taken by the nations of the region on the basis of the existing regional associations," the leaders said in a statement at the end of the organization's summit in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, attending the summit for the second consecutive year, criticized U.S. plans to put parts of a missile defense system in Eastern Europe as a threat to the entire region.

"These intentions go beyond just one country. They are of concern for much of the continent, Asia and SCO members," he said.

Washington has said the system would help protect against potential Iranian missiles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin didn't mention the United States in his speech, but he said that "any attempts to solve global and regional problems unilaterally are hopeless."

He also called for "strengthening a multi-polar international system that would ensure equal security and opportunities for all countries" — comments echoing Russia's frequent complaints that the United States dominates world affairs.

Moscow has also bristled at Washington's plans to deploy the anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic, saying the system would threaten Russian security.

Putin and Hu Jintao of China were set to attend Friday's military exercises in the Chelyabinsk region in Russia's Ural Mountains. Some 6,000 Russian and Chinese troops, dozens of aircraft and hundreds of armored vehicles and other heavy weapons will participate — the first such joint drills on Russia's territory.

China hosted the first-ever joint maneuvers in August 2005, which included a mock assault on the beaches of northern China and featured Russia's long-range bombers.

Moscow and Beijing have developed what they dubbed a "strategic partnership" after the Soviet collapse, cemented by their perceptions that the United States dominates global affairs.

In 2005, the SCO called for a timetable to be set for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from two member countries, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan evicted American forces later that year, but Kyrgyzstan still hosts a U.S. base, which supports operations in nearby Afghanistan.

Russia also maintains a military base in Kyrgyzstan.

The SCO, whose members are some of the world's biggest energy producers and consumers, also discussed ways to enhance energy cooperation. Washington has supported plans for new pipelines that would carry the region's oil and gas to the West and bypass Russia, while Moscow has pushed strongly to control the export flows.

A further sign of the group's intention to influence energy markets was the participation in the Bishkek summit of Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov, whose country is the second-largest producer of natural gas in the former Soviet Union after Russia. Turkmenistan is not an SCO member; the president was attending as a guest.