Real Time Discussion thread - Many things

[American Patriot]

October surprise?

Iran Warns of October 'Final Response' to Supporters of Israel

Fox News ^ | 09/20/2007 | Fox News

Iran pledged to deliver a "final reponse" to the U.S and other supporters of Israel during a religious ceremony next month, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported Thursday.



Iranian government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham said the message would be sent on Qods Day, held each year on the last Friday of Ramadan...


(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...

[American Patriot]

Iran: nuclear weapons "just in case?"
RIA Novosti ^ | September 19, 2007 | Alexander Koldobsky

MOSCOW - The Iranian question has become a cause of discord at the 48th General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Opening the session on September 17, IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei declared that his agency opposed the use of armed force against Iran and saw no immediate danger from that country.

ElBaradei's remarks were in stark contradiction to the position of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who had said the day before that "the world should be ready for war against Iran, which may be caused by the latter's nuclear ambitions."

Tehran's ambitions are embarrassingly thinly veiled. The leadership continues to insist that Iran is enriching uranium for civilian purposes. But what are these purposes? It is not clear when Iran will acquire the nuclear power stations that would consume domestically produced nuclear fuel. Besides, it is anybody's guess whether Iran will master commercial nuclear fuel production in the first place. Yet it still plans to enrich uranium. It is difficult to see the logic.

The more fiercely Iran's leaders deny any military ambitions, the more puzzled the rest of world becomes. Why would a peaceful nation want to enrich uranium in defiance of the entire international community? It is hard to believe that they don't understand such elementary reasoning.

The point is that Tehran has touched a nerve with the markedly anti-American sentiment that pervades public opinion across the Middle East. Obviously wishing to become the region's political leader, it has consciously chosen to foster an image of an independent minded "rebellious nation," which couldn't care less about American pressure or threats.

To this end adopting a "program for the commercial enrichment of uranium" at home carries far less risk than pursuing an aggressive foreign policy, or openly supporting die-hard extremists. All the more so since (on paper at least) it does not contravene international law. Moreover, the "nuclear plan" serves as a useful domestic tool, a rallying slogan to unite Iranian society, which is far more fractured and far less of a monolith, than is often thought.

Militarily, there are no targets for Iranian nuclear weapons. War-ravaged and unstable Iraq will not be Iran's regional foe for the foreseeable future, and there are no other adversaries. Using nuclear weapons against American military bases in the region or against Israel, which is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella and probably has its own nuclear arsenal as well, would be tantamount to national suicide. For all the bravado of their political statements, Iran's leaders are bound to understand this.

An anti-Russian nuclear venture would also be fatal. It would also be pointless. Russia does not threaten Iran in any way, and they do not, nor will have any serious clash of interest.

But what, then, motivates Tehran? A desire to have nuclear weapons "just in case"? The world will not allow this to happen, as Bernard Kouchner emphasized once again.

Alexander Koldobsky is a nuclear physicist.

[American Patriot]

High-stakes in Syria
Townhall.com ^ | September 21, 2007 | Charles Krauthammer

WASHINGTON -- On Sept. 6, something important happened in northern Syria. Problem is, no one knows exactly what. Except for those few who were involved, and they're not saying.

We do know that Israel carried out an airstrike. How then do we know it was important? Because in Israel, where leaking is an art form, even the best informed don't have a clue. They tell me they have never seen a better-kept secret.

Which suggests that whatever happened near Dayr az Zawr was no accidental intrusion into Syrian airspace, no dry run for an attack on Iran, no strike on some conventional target such as an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base or a weapons shipment on its way to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Circumstantial evidence points to this being an attack on some nuclear facility provided by North Korea.

Three days earlier, a freighter flying the North Korean flag docked in the Syrian port city of Tartus with a shipment of "cement." Long way to go for cement. Within days, a top State Department official warned that "there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment." Three days later, the Sept. 19 six-party meeting on dismantling North Korea's nuclear facilities was suddenly postponed, officially by China, almost certainly at the behest of North Korea.

Apart from the usual suspects -- Syria, Iran, Libya and Russia -- only two countries registered strong protests to the Israeli strike: Turkey and North Korea. Turkey we can understand. Its military may have permitted Israel an overflight corridor without ever having told the Islamist civilian government. But North Korea? What business is this of North Korea's? Unless it was a North Korean facility being hit.

Which raises alarms for many reasons. First, it would undermine the whole North Korean disarmament process. Pyongyang might be selling its stuff to other rogue states, or perhaps just temporarily hiding it abroad while permitting ostentatious inspections back home.

Second, there are ominous implications for the Middle East. Syria has long had chemical weapons -- on Monday, Jane's Defence Weekly reported on an accident that killed dozens of Syrians and Iranians loading a nerve-gas warhead onto a Syrian missile -- but Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Syria.

Tensions are already extremely high because of Iran's headlong rush to go nuclear. In fending off sanctions and possible military action, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chosen a radically aggressive campaign to assemble, deploy, flaunt and partially activate Iran's proxies in the Arab Middle East:

(1) Hamas launching rockets into Israeli towns and villages across the border from the Gaza Strip. Its intention is to invite an Israeli reaction, preferably a bloody and telegenic ground assault.

(2) Hezbollah heavily rearmed with Iranian rockets transshipped through Syria and preparing for the next round of fighting with Israel. The Third Lebanon War, now inevitable, awaits only Tehran's order.

(3) Syria, Iran's only Arab client state, building up forces across the Golan Heights frontier with Israel. And on Wednesday, yet another anti-Syrian member of Lebanon's parliament is killed in a massive car bombing.

(4) The al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards training and equipping Shiite extremist militias in the use of the deadliest IEDs and rocketry against American and Iraqi troops. Iran is similarly helping the Taliban to attack NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Why is Iran doing this? Because it has its eye on a single prize: the bomb. It needs a bit more time, knowing that once it goes nuclear, it becomes the regional superpower and Persian Gulf hegemon.

Iran's assets in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are poised and ready. Ahmadinejad's message is this: If anyone dares attack our nuclear facilities, we will fully activate our proxies, unleashing unrestrained destruction on Israel, moderate Arabs, Iraq and U.S. interests -- in addition to the usual, such as mining the Strait of Hormuz and causing an acute oil crisis and worldwide recession.

This is an extremely high-stakes game. The time window is narrow. In probably less than two years, Ahmadinejad will have the bomb.

The world is not quite ready to acquiesce. The new president of France has declared a nuclear Iran "unacceptable." The French foreign minister warned that "it is necessary to prepare for the worst" -- and "the worst, it's war, sir."

Which makes it all the more urgent that powerful sanctions be slapped on the Iranian regime. Sanctions will not stop Ahmadinejad. But there are others in the Iranian elite who might stop both him and the nuclear program before the volcano explodes. These rival elites may be radical but they are not suicidal. And they believe, with reason, that whatever damage Ahmadinejad's apocalyptic folly may inflict upon the region and the world, on Crusader and Jew, on infidel and believer, the one certain result of such an eruption is Iran's Islamic republic buried under the ash.

[American Patriot]

Remember the meteor in Peru that fell down???

Well, well, well......


American spy satellite downed in Peru as US nuclear attack on Iran thwarted
whatdoesitmean.com, via Pravda ^ | Sept 20, 2007 | Sorcha Faal


Russian Military Intelligence Analysts are reporting today that one of the United States most secretive spy satellites, the KH-13, targeting Iran was 'destroyed in its orbit' with its main power generator powered by the radioactive isotope Pu-238 surviving re-entry and crashing in a remote region of the South American Nation of Peru, and where hundreds are reported to be ill from radiation poisoning.


Peru's meteorite was a US spy satellite? (AP)

Western media reports are stating that the US spy satellite debris hitting Peru was caused by a meteor, but which, according to these reports, would be 'impossible' as the size of 30-meter crater, if caused by a meteorite, would have hit the ground with about as much energy as 1 kiloton tactical nuclear weapon, and which would have been recorded by the seismic stations around the World.

Most astonishing about these reports, however, are that they state that it was the Americans themselves who destroyed their own spy satellite with the attack upon it being made by the United States Air Forces' 30th Space Wing located at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. This incident further fuels the intrigue involving the United States War Leaders plans to attack Iran in their attempt to engulf the entire Middle East in Total War, but, against which, according to Russian Military Intelligence Analysts, a 'high ranking and significant' faction of the American Military Establishment is opposed to.

This can be further evidenced by this past few weeks unprecedented announcement by the United States Air Force that 6 nuclear armed cruise missiles were removed, without authorization, from their secure holding facility, located in North Dakota at the Minot Air Force Base, and flown to Barksdale Air Force Base, located in Louisiana, where they were left 'unattended' for 'nearly 10 hours'.


It is interesting to note, too, that Barksdale Air Force Base is where the United States President was 'ordered' to report to on September 11, 2001 by the United States Air Force Strategic Command prior to his being 'transferred' under 'armed escort' to Offutt Air Force Base Strategic Command Center near Omaha, Nebraska, where the first 'truce' between Americas War Leaders and its Military Forces was 'negotiated' by billionaire Warren Buffett as intermediary between the rival power blocs.

Though the rival American power blocs do seem to have maintained their uneasy truce, and which have, to date, prevented further attacks within the United States itself, these latest events, according to these reports, appear to show that this truce is now breaking down over threats and planning by the American War Leaders to attack Iran, and which Russia has warned would be 'catastrophic'.

What remains unknown to us, at this time, is what counter-planning the American War Leaders have in store for furthering their war aims against Iran as the United States Military have 'clearly signaled' that it will not allow nuclear weapons to be used, even to the extent of denying to their War Leaders one of their most prized spy satellites used to guide their nuclear cruise missiles to their intended Iranian targets.


As the American peoples desire for war appears to be exhausted, and with new polls showing their President and Congress' approval ratings at 'record lows', these reports paint a frightening picture of an American War Leadership determined to engulf the entire World in Total War in order to perpetuate their hegemony.


Not since last century's German Nazi and Japanese Empire's has the World seen such naked aggression towards the capture of the Earth's resources, and which caused the deaths of nearly 100 million people, but which the United States and its Western Allies now seem determined to see through to its brutal, and bloody end.


By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
© September 20, 2007 EU and US all rights reserved.


(Excerpt) Read more at english.pravda.ru ...

[American Patriot]

(There is NO TRUTH in Pravda by the way)... however, this is a very interesting turn of events... even if it isn't true. Let's just say the Cold War is back with a vengence.

[American Patriot]

Israel, U.S. shared data on suspected nuclear site: report
Reuters ^ | Fri Sep 21 | Reuters

Before it decided to strike Syria, Israel shared intelligence with President George W. Bush this summer indicating that its neighbor was getting help from North Korea on a nuclear facility, The Washington Post reported on Friday.

The White House was deeply troubled by Israel's assertion that North Korea was assisting Syria's nuclear ambition, but opted against an immediate response because of concern over negotiations on Pyongyang's nuclear program, the Post reported, citing U.S. government sources.

Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have given Israel some corroboration of the original intelligence before the air raid on September 6, the Post said, citing the sources.

The Post quoted its sources as saying that Israel hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties.

The U.S. sources would discuss the Israeli intelligence, which included satellite imagery, only on condition of anonymity, and many details about the North Korean-Syrian connection remain unknown, the Post reported.

Bush on Thursday refused to answer repeated questions about reports that Israel conducted air strikes in Syria.

"I'm not going to comment on the matter," Bush said, brushing aside several questions during a White House news conference.

Israel has also refused to talk about the reported raid.

Syrian officials have said that their air defenses forced Israeli jets to flee, dropping bombs harmlessly in the desert and has said it could retaliate for the September 6 violation of its territory.

Damascus has denied reports it may have received North Korean nuclear aid. North Korea has also denied any such cooperation.

[Brian Baldwin]

ROFLMAO. No bias in that story. (the spy satellite one)

[American Patriot]

September 21, 2007
Middle East Volcano
By Charles Krauthammer

On Sept. 6, something important happened in northern Syria. Problem is, no one knows exactly what. Except for those few who were involved, and they're not saying.

We do know that Israel carried out an airstrike. How do we know it was important? Because in Israel, where leaking is an art form, even the best-informed don't have a clue. They tell me they have never seen a better-kept secret.

Which suggests that whatever happened near Dayr az Zawr was no accidental intrusion into Syrian airspace, no dry run for an attack on Iran, no strike on some conventional target such as an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base or a weapons shipment on its way to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Circumstantial evidence points to this being an attack on some nuclear facility provided by North Korea.

Three days earlier, a freighter flying the North Korean flag docked in the Syrian port city of Tartus with a shipment of "cement." Long way to go for cement. Within days, a top State Department official warned that "there may have been contact between Syria and some secret suppliers for nuclear equipment." Three days later, the six-party meeting on dismantling North Korea's nuclear facilities scheduled for Sept. 19 was suddenly postponed, officially by China, almost certainly at the behest of North Korea.

Apart from the usual suspects -- Syria, Iran, Libya and Russia -- only two countries registered strong protests to the Israeli strike: Turkey and North Korea. Turkey we can understand. Its military may have permitted Israel an overflight corridor without ever having told the Islamist civilian government. But North Korea? What business is this of North Korea's? Unless it was a North Korean facility being hit.

Which raises alarms for many reasons. First, it would undermine the whole North Korean disarmament process. Pyongyang might be selling its stuff to other rogue states or perhaps just temporarily hiding it abroad while permitting ostentatious inspections back home.

Second, there are ominous implications for the Middle East. Syria has long had chemical weapons -- on Monday, Jane's Defence Weekly reported on an accident that killed dozens of Syrians and Iranians loading a nerve-gas warhead onto a Syrian missile -- but Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Syria.

Tensions are already extremely high because of Iran's headlong rush to go nuclear. In fending off sanctions and possible military action, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chosen a radically aggressive campaign to assemble, deploy, flaunt and partially activate Iran's proxies in the Arab Middle East:

(1) Hamas launching rockets into Israeli towns and villages across the border from the Gaza Strip. Its intention is to invite an Israeli reaction, preferably a bloody and telegenic ground assault.

(2) Hezbollah heavily rearmed with Iranian rockets transshipped through Syria and preparing for the next round of fighting with Israel. The third Lebanon war, now inevitable, awaits only Tehran's order.

(3) Syria, Iran's only Arab client state, building up forces across the Golan Heights frontier with Israel. And on Wednesday, yet another anti-Syrian member of Lebanon's parliament was killed in a massive car bombing.

(4) The al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard training and equipping Shiite extremist militias in the use of the deadliest IEDs and rocketry against American and Iraqi troops. Iran is similarly helping the Taliban attack NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Why is Iran doing this? Because it has its eye on a single prize: the bomb. It needs a bit more time, knowing that once it goes nuclear, it becomes the regional superpower and Persian Gulf hegemon.

Iran's assets in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are poised and ready. Ahmadinejad's message is this: If anyone dares attack our nuclear facilities, we will fully activate our proxies, unleashing unrestrained destruction on Israel, moderate Arabs, Iraq and U.S. interests -- in addition to the usual, such as mining the Strait of Hormuz and causing an acute oil crisis and worldwide recession.

This is an extremely high-stakes game. The time window is narrow. In probably less than two years, Ahmadinejad will have the bomb.

The world is not quite ready to acquiesce. The new president of France has declared a nuclear Iran " unacceptable." The French foreign minister warned that "it is necessary to prepare for the worst" -- and "the worst, it's war, sir."

Which makes it all the more urgent that powerful sanctions be slapped on the Iranian regime. Sanctions will not stop Ahmadinejad. But there are others in the Iranian elite who might stop him and the nuclear program before the volcano explodes. These rival elites may be radical, but they are not suicidal. And they believe, with reason, that whatever damage Ahmadinejad's apocalyptic folly may inflict upon the region and the world, on Crusader and Jew, on infidel and believer, the one certain result of such an eruption is Iran's Islamic republic buried under the ash.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com

(c) 2007, Washington Post Writers Group

[Brian Baldwin]

Fact is Iran was getting ready to nuke Israel if we attacked them and they had their nitwit neighbors supplying the whole scheme. The U.S. isn't stupid and Israel sure isn't going to allow it to happen. I don't see another year going by without an all out attack by America on Iran and by Israel on Syria. The middle east backed by their commie buddies are pushing every button they can to make this happen. They seriously believe they will win because their Koran tells them so. This is the problem I have in ruling a nation based entirely upon a "holy book". I don't care if they believe Allah will prevail, We all know that muscles operated by brains will prevail. They do in every war that has ever been fought. The middle east has neither.

[Brian Baldwin]

I was thinking today... (YES I WAS SO!) Anyway... I had this very odd series of thoughts I wanted to run by you. Now this is a stretch but bear with me.

What if the Hawks in our conservative party have another reason for wanting Amnesty for illegals? As the dollar continues to weaken, and the extreme nations seem anxious for a world war, and many politicians seem to discuss the draft as a certainty; Wouldn't that make for either a large pool of soldiers or a large pool of factory workers for a nation depleted of it's citizens due to combat?

Look at it... If the dollar collapses and it's looking a bit scarey right now. The whole world will fall into a depression rather than a recession. The best way out of a depression is to fight a massive war, (an ugly truth due to why). Several extreme nations are intent on destroying the dollar, falsely believing it will only weaken our nation. It can no longer be ignored that there is an "Axis" already formed and even France has been forced into choosing a side. We all know world war is a certainty and that with it the draft is too. The size of the armies we'll face this time are massive compared to the last world war and we'll have to field millions of men and women across a wide spectrum of fronts. Where do we get reserves and/or workers to supply such a force?

[American Patriot]

The thought of the weakening dollar has crossed my mind several times. China has recently been trying to pull funds and caused further weakening, so this is a pretty viable idea I think. So, I think Brian, you're not too far off on this.

I'd reallllllly, like to hear from others here too. We're looking at some strange and scary situations. I'm not trying to scare people with the news articles I'm posting here. These are REAL events, and there is some serious intrigue going on out there, including the Russians (saying we dropped our own satellite for some reason), and Syria getting bombed.

The fact is, this could lead quickly, almost instantly to a nuclear exchange if everyone isn't careful at this point.

On the other hand, I think we ought to not sit around and let IslamoNAZIs try to change our country any further than they have.

It's time for Americans to put their foot down and stop this crap.

On a side note, a Swed has been placed on the "most wanted list" by Arabs because of his dipiction of Mohamad's head on a dog.

I think every American ought to draw similar pictures and put them up on blog sites. It's time to stop this crap.

[American Patriot]

Syria's WMDs
Waterbury Republican-American ^ | September 20, 2007 | Editorial


While Americans fret over Britney's child-custody troubles, Sally's "censored" anti-war rant and O.J.'s encounters with Las Vegas police, some very scary and troubling reports are seeping almost unnoticed from the Middle East.

The French news agency AFP and others reported this week that dozens of Iranian weapons engineers and Syrian troops were killed in a July explosion in northern Syria. Jane's Defense Weekly, a reputable British journal, quoted Syrian military sources as saying "VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agents" were involved in the explosion, which occurred as engineers were installing a warhead on a Scud missile.

Meanwhile, details are slowly emerging about an Israeli air raid in northeastern Syria. Reports indicate the target was a nuclear-weapons installation being built by Syria in cooperation with North Korea, which is known to have nuclear bombs and know-how. Another possibility is the Israeli raid destroyed conventional weapons intended for Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon.

Amid this talk about nuclear and chemical weapons, we couldn't help but wonder: Where did Syria get them? Jane's says Damascus has been buying the stuff by the ton from Iran since 2004. That's frightening enough on its face, but a little hard to swallow because the Israelis have been known to intercept illicit weapons shipments, and they've never scored VX, sarin or mustard blister agents, let alone nukes.

Before the Iraq war, every intelligence agency in the world believed Saddam Hussein had chemical weapons, but no weapons of mass destruction were found after U.S. and British armies toppled his regime in 2003. At the time, there was speculation and even some evidence that Hussein had trucked the materials across Iraq's western border to Syria. The possibility the warhead that exploded was one of Hussein's missing WMDs should not be discounted, especially when one considers that such weapons grow increasingly unstable as they age.

More to the point: If Syria is trying to get nuclear bombs, already has weapons of mass destruction and is mounting them on missiles, and if Iran and North Korea are cooperating in this endeavor, what do the civilized nations of the world intend to do about it?

[American Patriot]

And the Russian STRIKE!!!!!!

Two Russian Bombers Spotted near Iceland
Iceland Review ^ | September 21, 2007 | Staff

09/21/2007 | 11:13
Two Russian Bombers Spotted near Iceland


Two far-reaching Russian Tupolev 95 bombers entered the Icelandic air observation zone north of the country yesterday morning. British military jets flew towards the bombers and followed them to the northern limits of the observation zone.


The Russian aircrafts circled Iceland and flew as close as 43 nautical miles offshore, but without entering Icelandic airspace, ruv.is reports. According to a statement from Iceland̢۪s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it received information from Russia about the flight on Wednesday night.


Iceland̢۪s Radar Agency monitored the bombers during the entire flight and exchanged information with appropriate military authorities within NATO, including Norway and Britain.


Earlier this month eight Russian military jets flew near Iceland without notifying Icelandic authorities.



© Copyright icelandreview.com (Heimur hf) Iceland Review â€Â¢ Borgartúni 23 â€Â¢ 105 Reykjavik â€Â¢ Iceland â€Â¢ Tel.(354) 512 7575 â€Â¢ Fax.(354) 561 8646 â€Â¢ icelandreview@icelandreview.com

[American Patriot]

France, US security chiefs see eye-to-eye
AFP ^ | 09/21/2007

PARIS (AFP) — France and the United States share a common view on the security threats facing the two countries, the interior minister said Friday after meeting FBI director Robert Mueller.

"We share the same analysis, based on the fact that today there is truly no border between internal security and external security," said Interior Minister Michele Alliot-Marie.

Mueller, the head of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, also met with Justice Minister Rachida Dati and officials from the new domestic intelligence agency during his two-day visit to Paris.

He said the decision announced last week to merge the DST counter-intelligence service with the RG police intelligence unit would help strengthen bilateral cooperation with France.

Alliot-Marie said the two countries have to grapple with a certain number of issues that are "vital for the lives of our citizens, including terrorism which is a permanent threat to our countries and for our nationals living abroad, but also trafficking, in particular of drugs."

[samizdat]

I was thinking today...

you're on the right track, Brian. Yom kippur!

[Brian Baldwin]

It's all about patterns. When you study military history it's just as important to look at the events leading up to the conflagoration as it is the battles and commanders themselves. The addage of "history repeats" isn't just a warning but also a pulse monitor for war. We've come a long ways from spears and bronze short swords in military tech but haven't seemed to make a step past what will set off the powder keg. Greed. It's always about greed to the greater extent. Recognizing that isn't genius by any means, but trying to see where our nations' leaders are going with their policies is important to understand what preparations outside the fiscal and training of military might stand. Each move is a chess move designed to bluff the other player into moving wrong or even conceding. The winner gets the purse.

In this instance... The purse is HUGE. Its' sole title to Super Power and all the economics that go with it. And there are only three players in the game. The U.S., Russia, and China. All the other problem areas are just manuevering by these three. The E.U. would like to think of themsleves as a potential threatening Super Power but they only kid themselves. Again... Not hidden in the least from our view. Iran is a hotspot but none of the big three will worry over them in the least. They can be crushed at will. Sewing up resources, (Germany's mistake in WWII for not thinking that one through), political pandering for sympathy votes (America losing on the world stage), Technological highroad (the big thump), and getting the others to blink (economic sabotage basically), are what drive the current situation. When the SHTF, you as a nation will want to be strongest in those four areas for a sure win. But knowing the game dictates that you can only be strong in one or two of those areas at best.

Before now, money kept the other two at bay. Only the U.S. was wealthy enough to wage such a war. But today that isn't the case. They all three now have the cash on hand basically and so world war is a given. The question will be when... The answer is when the the four major areas of strength are tied up beyond prying. In the mean time all three players will attempt to pin prick the other two into jumping offsides, effectively removing themselves from the game.

Right now we'll need jumping off points within the middle east and eastern Europe. Russia will need them in eastern europe (the huge battle with the missile shield) and China needs them in Mexico/South America. They're not key to winning but they would go a long ways towards an early foothold when the shooting starts.

After that you have to size up the opponents. Russia is interested in Europe and believes they are the path to a cold crushing victory. by controlling the next biggest money maker next to the U.S. they can quickly bully others into ignoring us and doing business with them. We starve to death basically and they take us at their leisure. Their play style is one of patience coupled with an iron fist.

China is arrogant and truely believes that all races besides their own are inferior (therefore stupid). They'll want outright battle across multiple theaters believing shear numbers will account for their enemies. They especially want what they can not have by deception and that's the U.S. They'll want to invade our nation and the Middle east in order to break our interests over seas and to isolate us for main battle in our own lands. We've seen their tactics too many times to ever believe they'll follow another. Thousands of years with no change in war policy shows they are impatient and vicious.

The U.S. prefers to play the martyr in most ways. (I love this country but we always fight best from this stance). We'll maneuver quietly and fiscally waiting for the right time to strike which is when attacked. We'll crush our enemies hopefully with the help of as many allies as we've thrown cash at. The U.S. therefore fights through subtlety and resolutely. (Iron fist in a velvet glove if you will). Crush our enemies in defense and then set up tight control of their surrender conditions to keep nations still viable to consume American Corporate products. (sounds almost like liberal propaganda but its easy to see if you read enough of the various Generals' memoirs.)

Which one is the right one? None. No one in their right mind wants a war of this magnitude. So why are they doing it? Because the purse is impossible to resist. Human nature then kicks in and the SHTF. How do you stop it? You can't... It's been heading in this direction from the start. No, I'm not talking biblical nor will I here. This about how people react in certain situations. We didn't build this country so we could all sing Kumbaya over a double mocha latte. Neither did any other nation. We all wanted to get richer. Whether it was a dictator or a pioneer family moving west. Greed of having a bit more drove us to settle the many nations of the worlds and it drives those nations to fight wars. The bigger the purse, the bigger the war.

[Aplomb]

Brian, that was very well written. I agree with most of what you wrote. As thorough as you were, I'm thinking that there are still many aspects that need to be figured into the equation. I don't know what all of those factors are, but I do know that there are at least a couple that I'd like to add here. One is the problem of relentless relgious zeal with regard to Islam and what jihadist attitudes prevail because of what they consider having the authority of God toward conquest of the entire planet. The other thing that I can attest to is the fact that human beings are not just predictable, but annoyingly, we are also quite unpredictable. That means that we may know it is coming but unfortunately, we cannot anticipate totally how it will all play out.

[Brian Baldwin]

It's just me opining about my personal observations on the subject of war. As indepth as I have sought to study this subject over the decades, It is by no means perfect. Many military men agree with me and many also do not. There are variables amongst variables when it comes down to any conflict of this nature and no one could write all of them out. Instead each of us seeks to apply our own rationale to the understanding of those variables that make up the conflict. The why's and Wherefore's. Religion I won't discuss outside the religon forums and can't comment on it here but I do agree that any kind of fanaticism is dangerous.

What I wrote above is in the spirit of open dialogue here in this thread alone and would never put forth as facts in the other threads and forums. My thoughts and observations lend little to factual discussion. Once we decide to allow it, then we would be no better than some of those sites out there like Moveon.org and DailyKOS or even the extreme religous sites.

I figure that while my "book" studies of war are helpful to me for understanding what's coming, they can't answer the whole of the question. We could easily compile a long list of variables that lend themselves towards war as an outcome and still be short by several thousand I'm certain. So my above post is but a super condensed group of thoughts that drive my thinking of what's to come. In the end it would still be 50/50. I'll either be right or I won't.

[American Patriot]

Brian, don't be modest about this, you did a very good analysis of this situation, for example...

Right now we'll need jumping off points within the middle east and eastern Europe. Russia will need them in eastern europe (the huge battle with the missile shield) and China needs them in Mexico/South America. They're not key to winning but they would go a long ways towards an early foothold when the shooting starts.

This is very true, and something, if you go all the way to Anomalies, I've been talking about this in the "China Thread" over there.

Crush our enemies in defense and then set up tight control of their surrender conditions to keep nations still viable to consume American Corporate products. (sounds almost like liberal propaganda but its easy to see if you read enough of the various Generals' memoirs.)

True... even the part about liberal propaganda. Something people fail to understand, in particular, Liberals... the fact is that "National Security" concerns things like the economy. So, keeping the economy strong is certainly within our purview and we WILL go to war over such things if we can't do something in another manner.

[American Patriot]

Putin says US meddling causes 'heartburn'
Focus ^ | 21 September 2007

The United States' growing influence in Eastern Europe risks will cause "heartburn" there, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in comments published Thursday, AFP reported.

"I think that it is neither a good thing for these countries, nor for the United States, as sooner or later it will cause the same heartburn in those countries that the domination of the Soviet Union caused them at the time," said Putin at a meeting of foreign political experts in Sotchi, southern Russia. The text of the discussion was published late Thursday on the official Kremlin website.

"I know that unfortunately in certain countries in Eastern Europe, the ambassador to the United States approves not only candidates for the ministries of defence, but lower-level functionaries as well," said Putin. "This may be pleasant today, but tomorrow this could cause problems," he said, adding, "the same for old (Western) Europe, who is obligated to take into account the interests of NATO when dealing with politics."

"Today, there are not a lot of countries in the world that have the pleasure and the luck to say that they are sovereign states -- you can count them on your fingers. They are China, India, Russia and some other countries," he said.