Prepare Now for the Coming Middle East War

[vector7]

Companion Thread:

• The Rise of the Second Soviet Empire

Russian radar in Armenia to block an US/Israeli strike on Iran from the north

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 8, 2012, 12:26 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Sergey Lavrov Syrian uprising Iran nuclear US-Russia US missile shield


Russia's S-400 Triumf missiles posted in Kaliningrad

Moscow has stepped into the vacuum created by US President Barack Obama’s decision to stay out of any potentially incendiary Middle East involvement while campaigning for a second term. After blocking the way to direct Western and Arab military intervention in Syria through the Mediterranean, Russia sent its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week on a round trip to the capitals of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – an expedition designed to secure Iran against a potential US/Israeli attack via its northern and eastern neighbors, debkafile’s military sources report.

On his return to Moscow, April 6, the Russian army let it be known that highly-advanced mobile S-400 surface-to-air missiles had been moved into Kaliningrad, the Baltic enclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania, its response to US plans for an anti-Iran missile shield system in Europe and the Middle East.

In Yerevan, the Russian minister finalized a deal for the establishment of an advanced Russian radar station in the Armenian mountains to counter the US radar set up at the Turkish Kurecik air base, our sources disclose.

Just as the Turkish station (notwithstanding Ankara’s denials) will trade data on incoming Iranian missiles with the US station in the Israeli Negev, the Russian station in Armenia will share input with Tehran.

Moscow remains deeply preoccupied in Syria, successfully fending off Western and Arab pressure against its ruler Bashar Assad. debkafile’s sources hear that Assad will not meet the April 10 deadline for moving his heavy armor and battalions out of Syrian cities. Monday, April 8, he sent his foreign minister Walid Moallem to Moscow for instructions for getting him off the hook of failing to comply with his commitment to the UN envoy Kofi Annan’s peace plan, starting with a truce.

Lavrov, rather than US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton is evidently regarded these days as the senior Middle East power broker. In a thumbs-down on Russia’s deepening footstep in the region, the London-based Saudi Sharq al Awsat captioned a Sunday op-ed item, “Nor do we want a ‘Sheikh’ Lavrov.”

For the first time since the Cold War ended, the management of a major world crisis has passed into the hands of the Kremlin in Moscow and the UN Secretariat in New York.

Weeping crocodile tears, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Saturday that the April 10 date for a Syrian truce “was not an excuse for continued killing” by the Syrian regime, ignoring the fact that “the continued killing” could have been avoided were it not for the strategy pursued by Kofi Annan, the special envoy he shares with the Arab League, with Moscow’s back-stage wire-pulling.

This is because President Barak Obama is advised by his campaign strategists that the way to the American voter’s heart in November is through burnishing his image as a “balanced and responsible” multinational diplomat, in contrast with his Republican rivals’ hawkish support of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

In the case of Syria, the White House finds itself on the same side as the UN and the Kremlin. They all share the common goal of obstructing Western and Arab military intervention in Syria at all costs.

Hundreds of Syrian protesters are still paying the price in blood - although its dimensions of the butchery are frequently exaggerate by the opposition. After brutalizing his population for thirteen months, Bashar Assad is more or less on top of the revolt in Syria’s main cities, excepting the Idlib province and one or two pockets in and around Homs. He used the extra days afforded him by Kofi Annan’s deadline for the ruthless purge of the last remnants of resistance in small towns and villages, cetain that Moscow, the UN secretary - and Washington, by default - would do nothing to stop him.

Should current circumstances shoot off in unforeseen directions – for instance, a Syrian government poison chemical or biological weapon attack causing hundreds of dead, over and above the 9,000 confirmed by UN figures – Obama might be forced to resort to limited military action, pulling in the Turkish army. This has not yet happened.

That the Russians are not letting the grass grow under their feet, turning Middle East bushfires to their advantage and closing one American Middle East option after another, appears to be a minor consideration in Washington up until November.

[American Patriot]

US Forces using anti-radar systems can take those out pretty damned quick, like right nowish.

[vector7]

Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack

Apr. 9, 2012, 3:38 PM

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WASHINGTON – The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran.
"Iran is our neighbor," Rogozin said. "If Iran is involved in any military action, it's a direct threat to our security." Rogozin now is the deputy Russian prime minister and is regarded as anti-Western. He oversees Russia's defense sector.

Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn't believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary.

The implication of preparing to move Russian troops not only is to protect its own vital regional interests but possibly to assist Iran in the event of such an attack. Sources add that a Russian military buildup in the region could result in the Russian military potentially engaging Israeli forces, U.S. forces, or both.

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."

This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

Because of the impact on Russian vital interests in the region, sources say that Russian preparations for such an attack began two years ago when Russian Military Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia, was modernized. It is said to occupy a major geopolitical position in the region.

Families of Russian servicemen from the Russian base at Gyumri in Armenia close to the borders of Georgia and Turkey already have been evacuated, Russian sources say.

"Military Base 102 is a key point, Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus," a Russian military source told the newspaper. "It occupies a very important geopolitical position, but the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this situation."
With Vladimir Putin returning to the Russian presidency, the prospect that he again would order an attack on Georgia as he did in August 2008 also has become a possibility, these informed sources say.

The Russians believe that Georgia would cooperate with the United States in blocking any supplies from reaching Military Base 102, which now is supplied primarily by air. Right now, Georgia blocks the only land transportation route through which Russian military supplies could travel.
Fuel for the Russian base in Armenia comes from Iran. Russian officials believe this border crossing may be closed in the event of a war.

"Possibly, it will be necessary to use military means to breach the Georgian transport blockade and establish transport corridors leading into Armenia," according to Yury Netkachev, former deputy commander of Russian forces in Transcaucasia. Geography of the region suggests that any such supply corridor would have to go through the middle of Georgia approaching Georgia's capital of Tbilisi given the roads and topography of the country.

In September, the Russian military plans to hold its annual military exercises called Kavkaz 2012. However, informed Russian sources say that preparations and deployments of military equipment and personnel already have begun in anticipation of a possible war with Iran.

These sources report that new command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using the Russian GPS system, GLONASS for targeting information.

"The air force in the South Military District is reported to have been rearmed almost 100 percent with new jets and helicopters," according to regional expert Pavel Felgenhauer of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

In 2008, Felgenhauer pointed out, Kavkaz 2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia in August of that year.

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov already has announced that new Spetznaz, or Special Forces units, will be deployed in Stavropol and Kislovodsk, which are located in the North Caucasian regions.

Russian sources say that the Russian military believes that if the U.S. goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces into Georgia and warships in the Caspian Sea with the possible help of Azerbaijan, which since has stated that it will not allow its territory to be used by Israel to launch an attack on neighboring Iran.

There had been speculation that given the improved relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, the Jewish state may use bases from which to launch air attacks on neighboring Iran's nuclear sites. Israel recently agreed to sell Azerbaijan $1.6 billion in military equipment.

A further irritant to Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili is the prospect that Russian assault airborne troops, or VDV units, with helicopters could be moved into Georgia's two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These two provinces were taken by the Russian military during the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war. Initially they were declared by Moscow to be independent countries, but now the Kremlin is indicating they may be annexed to Russia.

Similarly, Lt. General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the VDV, has announced that Russian troops in Armenia will be reinforced by paratroopers, along with attack and transport helicopters.

"The Russian spearhead (from the Transcaucasia region) may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of U.S. bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets," Felgenhauer said.

"By one swift military strike, Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse," he said.

"At the same time, a small victorious war would unite the Russian nation behind the Kremlin, allowing it to crush the remnants of the prodemocracy movement 'for fair elections,' and as a final bonus, Russia's military action could perhaps finally destroy the Saakashvili regime."

Putin has made no secret that he despises Saakashvili and with his return to the presidency, he may consider taking out the Georgian president as unfinished business. Just as in 2008, Putin will not have much to worry about if he sends Russian troops into Georgia, since there was muted reaction from the U.S. and the European countries to the Russian invasion and subsequent occupation.

Read more: http://g2bulletin.wnd.com/index.php?...#ixzz1raWweAlG

[American Patriot]

It's too bad the 21st Century is going to end civilization as we know it with nuclear war.

Maybe the Mayans knew more than I've given them credit for.....

[American Patriot]

IDF weighs interceptors for offshore gas platforms

By YAAKOV KATZ
04/10/2012 01:30
Fearing missiles, Navy seeking budget for 4 new vessels to improve defense coverage of Mediterranean Sea.

Photo: Albatross The IDF is considering the deployment of missile interceptors on gas rigs that Israeli companies plan to construct in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in the coming years, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
Israel’s concern is that Hezbollah will try to attack the platforms with anti-ship missiles or explosives-laden vessels.
Related:

• Navy seeks $100m. to protect new gas rigs

The navy is particularly concerned about Syria’s recent purchase of the Russian Yakhont anti-ship missile, which could be transferred to Hezbollah and used to target the gas rigs. Syria already tested the Yakhont in recent maneuvers. The weapon is said to be a sophisticated missile with a range of about 300 km.
Last February, the navy seized an Iranian arms ship whose cargo, Israel said, was destined for Islamic Jihad. The vessel was carrying six Iranian Nasr-1 radarguided anti-ship missiles.
The navy has yet to decide which type of missile defense system it would deploy on the gas rigs, but the two options under consideration are David’s Sling, which Israel is developing for use against medium-range rockets and cruise missiles, as well as the Barak-8, which protects large navy vessels against anti-ship missiles.
The navy has already increased its patrols in the Mediterranean and is also using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to increase the range of its surveillance. It currently operates Israel Aerospace Industries’s Heron UAV, which comes with a special electro-optic payload for maritime operations.
Until now, the navy has focused on protecting Israel’s sea lines of communication (SLOC), which span the length of the Mediterranean and around the Magreb region of North Africa. Some 99 percent of all goods arriving in the country come by sea, including security-related supplies and military hardware.
“The area we will need to protect at sea will significantly increase with the construction of the new gas rigs,” a senior naval officer said.
“We are also very concerned with the military buildup in the region, which is seeing an increase in sophisticated weapons systems like anti-ship missiles.”
In addition, the navy is in talks with the Defense Ministry about the need for four new vessels to more effectively cover its new area of operations. It is seeking a larger platform than the Sa’ar 5-class corvettes it operates.
The vessel will have to accommodate an advanced radar system, a helicopter and a launch system capable of firing long-range air defense and surface-to-surface missiles.
The navy has also informed the energy companies that it will need to install radars on the gas rigs, and the government is considering ordering the companies to help finance some of the cost.
In February, the Defense Ministry and navy ordered the Israel Electric Corporation to bolster security around a natural gas buoy that is being built off the coast of Hadera. The buoy will enable Israel to import natural gas in place of Egyptian gas, which has come to a near standstill since the revolution in Egypt last year.

[American Patriot]

Iran Watch: Bunker-buster buildup


Posted By Uri Friedman Thursday, March 22, 2012 - 7:00 PM Share



President Obama often talks about all options being on the table when it comes to confronting Iran over its nuclear program, but what's going on underneath this most mysterious of tables? The United States is preparing for a possible military conflict with Iran, among other things.
The Hill reports that top Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee are spearheading an effort to divert defense dollars in the upcoming fiscal 2013 budget toward weapons systems and programs that could be used in a confrontation with Tehran.
Committee Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) has previously said he will seek "things like powerful bunker-busting munitions, countermeasures for mines, and appropriate sensor and intelligence platforms." Earlier this month, an Air Force general declared that a new 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb that can penetrate 200 feet of concrete would be a "great weapon" again Iran. The fearsome and appropriate name of the beast? The Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb.

Iran meter: The congressional funding effort isn't the only indication that the U.S. military is preparing for a potential showdown with Iran. The U.S. Navy has doubled the number of mine-hunting vessels in the Persian Gulf and equipped its warships with Gatling guns, according to The Hill.
Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Central Command is beefing up its military capabilities against Iran by "fielding new laser target-trackers for machine guns, enhanced sensors for underwater vehicles, improved protection against drone attacks, and upgrades of U-2 spy planes" through "reprogramming" requests. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says the Pentagon is exploring several military options.
Sure, it's not particularly surprising that the U.S. military is engaging in contingency planning. But Obama has emphatically dismissed the idea of containing a nuclear Iran, and a U.S. war game this month highlighted what U.S. officials already knew all too well -- that a unilitaral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities could spark a regional war. If the United States concludes that sanctions have failed to blunt the Iranian nuclear threat and that an Israeli strike is too dangerous, we could be hearing a lot more about that Massive Ordnance Penetrator.

[American Patriot]

This thread is proving to be prophetic.

We started talking about this some many moons ago because we could ALL see it coming.

Now it is nearly here. Russia is mucking about trying to prevent an attack on Iran by Israel. The US is helping on the side (without any one KNOWING I guess... lol). Russia is building up over there on the border. The US is building up on the Gulf....

This is not going to go well if Israel DOES hit Iran's nuke facilities. The Russians will try to shoot them down, and we will get involved.

See... the pawns move. See... a check. Somewhere or another on the way, there WILL be a Checkmate.

Payvand Iran News ...
04/09/12
Russia has taken steps to block possible strike on Iran: report
Source: Mehr News Agency, Thran The Israeli website DEBKAfile reported on April 8 that Russia has taken measures to block a possible U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran from the north. According to the report, after blocking the way to direct Western and Arab military intervention in Syria through the Mediterranean, Russia sent its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week on a round trip to the capitals of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan - an expedition designed to secure Iran against a potential U.S.-Israeli attack via its northern and eastern neighbors. On his return to Moscow, April 6, the Russian army let it be known that highly-advanced mobile S-400 surface-to-air missiles had been moved into Kaliningrad, the Baltic enclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania, its response to U.S. plans for an anti-Iran missile shield system in Europe and the Middle East. In Yerevan, the Russian minister finalized a deal for the establishment of an advanced Russian radar station in the Armenian mountains to counter the U.S. radar set up at the Turkish Kurecik air base. Just as the Turkish station (notwithstanding Ankara's denials) will trade data on incoming Iranian missiles with the U.S. station in the Israeli Negev, the Russian station in Armenia will share input with Tehran.

[American Patriot]

EU: Iran agrees to nuclear talks

By the CNN Wire Staff
April 10, 2012 -- Updated 1109 GMT (1909 HKT)


The Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu lays out demands
• Iran's nuclear chief suggests the country may stop producing 20% enriched uranium
• Talks will include Russia, China, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States
• Iran's economy has been hit by U.S. and European sanctions

(CNN) -- Nuclear talks will resume this week in Turkey between Iran and six world powers, the European Union reported Monday.
"We have agreed with Iran to launch a new round of talks in Istanbul on 14 April," said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. "We are very pleased that these talks, which will address the international community´s concerns on the Iranian nuclear programme, are going ahead after more than one year since we last met," Mann said in a statement.
Agreement comes after weeks of diplomatic wrangling between Tehran and Russia, China, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Faced with mounting pressure from the world powers over its controversial nuclear program, Iran said last month that it was ready to re-engage with the International Atomic Energy Association, the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
Obama on Iran: 'Time is short'
Mudd: Diplomacy won't stop Iran
As a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran has the right, like other countries, to enrich uranium for commercial and research reactors. But the same facilities that are used for peaceful enrichment can be used to enrich uranium for a bomb. And that's what many Western countries suspect Iran is doing.
Iran insists its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes.
The country suggested over the weekend that it may be willing to reduce the amount of uranium it is enriching at 20%.
"Based on our needs and once the required fuel is obtained, we will decrease the production and we may even totally shift it to the 3.5%," Iranian nuclear chief Fereydoun Abbasi said in a televised interview, according to state-run Press TV.
Iran does not plan to produce 20% enriched uranium for long, Abbasi said, according to Press TV.
Uranium enriched at 20% is typically used for hospital isotopes and research reactors, but is also seen as a shortcut toward the 90% enrichment required to build nuclear weapons. Nuclear experts say Iran's supply is far greater than it would need for peaceful purposes.
Iran says there is a medical purpose to its nuclear program.
The Gulf nation's economy has been hit hard by U.S. and European oil and financial sanctions over its nuclear activities.
Israel has threatened to attack Iran's nuclear sites should peaceful alternatives be exhausted, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterating last month that Israel reserved the right to defend itself from the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.
Netanyahu laid out demands Sunday in Jerusalem: "One, stop all enrichment of uranium, both 20% and 3%. Two, move all enriched material out of Iran's territory; it is possible to give them alternative material for peaceful purposes. Three, dismantle the illegal facility in Qom."
The Fordo nuclear enrichment plant is in the mountains of Qom province, where Iran says it has 3,000 centrifuges in operation.
"Naturally, we will monitor the talks to see that Iran does not use them in order to deceive the world and continue with its nuclear program," Netanyahu said.
Tehran has threatened to cut off the Strait of Hormuz -- the only shipping lane out of the oil-rich Persian Gulf -- if it is attacked.
In early March, the head of the IAEA said there were indications that Iran was engaged in the development of nuclear weapons.
"Iran is not telling us everything. That is my impression. We are asking Iran to engage with us proactively, and Iran has a case to answer," said Yukiya Amano, the director general of the IAEA.

[American Patriot]

Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says they can withstand oil embargo for '2 to 3 years'

Iran has amassed sufficient reserves to withstand a total embargo of all oil exports for "two to three years", President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed on Tuesday.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivering a speech during a ceremony to mark National Nuclear Day in Tehran. Photo: HO/AFP/Getty Images









By David Blair

5:27PM BST 10 Apr 2012


Negotiations between Iran and the leading western powers, plus Russia and China, are due to take place in Istanbul on Saturday.

On the eve of these talks – the first for over a year – Mr Ahmadinejad gave a defiant speech claiming that the central measure taken to increase the pressure on Iran's economy would have no effect.

The European Union has agreed to stop buying oil from Iran by July 1 – and the state media in Tehran reported that the country had chosen to pre-empt this measure by halting exports to Greece, one of its biggest EU customers.

"They want to impose sanctions on our oil and we must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn't sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily," said Mr Ahmadinejad in a televised speech.

"Whoever seeks to violate the rights of the Iranian nation will get a blow to the mouth," he added.

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Last year, the EU imported almost 600,000 barrels of Iranian oil every day, accounting for 24 per cent of the country's total exports, according to the International Energy Agency. The loss of these sales is expected to deal a significant blow to the central pillar of the national economy.
Iran will probably find alternative customers for this oil, but they are likely to drive a hard bargain and insist on low prices, costing the country billions of dollars in lost revenue.
Last year, Iran is believed to have made about $80 billion from oil sales, accounting for half of its entire national budget and about 80 per cent of its export earnings.
Mr Ahmadinejad has a long history of exaggerated claims for the prowess of the Iranian economy. But western governments judge this to be his Achilles' heel.
Iran's economy has stagnated for years, with the value of the national currency, the Rial, plunging in the early months of this year, creating widespread discontent with the regime.

[American Patriot]

Russia says two nationals detained in Iran
April 10, 2012 share
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Russia said Tuesday that two of its nationals working in Tehran for a gold exploration firm have been detained by the Iranian authorities and demanded to be granted immediate access to them.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the two men -- identified as A. S. Kaisin and A. P. Romanenko -- worked for a Kazakh-Iranian gold exploration firm called Zarkuh.

"The Russian embassy in Tehran in coordination with the Kazakh embassy has undertaken urgent measures to establish its citizens whereabouts," the ministry said in a statement.

"Russia's ambassador to Iran Levan Jagaryan has reported the incident to the relevant authorities in the country, including the Iranian Foreign Ministry."

The ministry added that Russia has asked that its consulate staff be granted quick access to the detained.

"We are awaiting a response from the Iranian side," the Foreign Ministry said.

The statement said the two men were detained on Thursday but gave no other immediate details.

[American Patriot]

REFILE-EXCLUSIVE-UPDATE 1-China's ZTE planned U.S. computer sale to Iran


Tue Apr 10, 2012 1:09pm EDT

(Refiling to restore headline tag "Exclusive")
By Steve Stecklow
(Reuters) - China's ZTE Corp, which recently sold Iran's largest telecommunications firm a powerful surveillance system, later agreed to ship to Iran millions of dollars worth of embargoed U.S. computer equipment, documents show.
The American components were part of an 8 million euro ($10.5 million) equipment-supply contract, dated June 30, 2011, between ZTE, a Chinese trading firm and a unit of the consortium that controls the Iranian telecom, Telecommunication Co. of Iran, according to documents reviewed by Reuters. ZTE is China's second-largest telecommunications equipment maker.
The documents shed further light on how Iran obtains sophisticated American tech products despite U.S. sanctions on Iran. China is a major conduit. Reuters in March revealed an earlier deal between ZTE and TCI, which centered on non-American surveillance equipment but also included some U.S. tech goods. The latest deal, though smaller in scale, was much more reliant on U.S. products.
Beijing and Moscow have vetoed Western attempts to strengthen sanctions against Iran over its nuclear-development program. ZTE, based in the city of Shenzhen, is publicly traded but its largest shareholder is a Chinese state-owned enterprise.
According to the contract's parts list, the equipment to be delivered from China included IBM servers; switches made by Cisco Systems Inc and Brocade Communications Systems Inc; database software from Oracle Corp and a unit of EMC Corp; Symantec back-up and ant-virus software; and a Juniper Networks firewall. The parts were intended for business-support services, including a ZTE billing system.
A spokesman for ZTE said last week in an email that "as far as we know" the company had not yet shipped any of the products. Asked if ZTE intended to do so, he emailed a new statement Monday that said: "We have no intention to implement this contract or ship the products."
He also said ZTE decided "to abandon" the agreement after "we realized that the contract involved some U.S. embargoed products."
The contract had made clear the American provenance of the goods: Its accompanying parts list, signed by ZTE, lists more than 20 different computer products from U.S. companies. Washington has banned the sale of such goods to Iran for years.
U.S. companies that responded to requests for comment said they were not aware of the Iranian contract; several said they were investigating the matter.
A spokesman for IBM said: "Our agreements with ZTE specifically prohibit ZTE from the transfer of IBM products to Iran. If any of IBM's business partners are breaching our export compliance agreements, then IBM will take appropriate actions."
A Brocade spokesman said the company doesn't sell any products to Iran "and we certainly have not shipped these products to" ZTE. A spokesman for Greenplum, the EMC unit, said: "We have no knowledge of the contract described, but are actively researching this matter." A Cisco spokesman said: "We continue to investigate this matter, as any violation of U.S. export controls is a very serious matter."
According to the U.S. Treasury Dept., a U.S. company would violate sanctions if it shipped products requiring an export license to a third party knowing the goods would end up in Iran.
The United States, Europe and the United Nations have been imposing increasingly tough economic sanctions on Iran to pressure it to refrain from developing nuclear weapons, which Iran denies it is doing. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the U.S., China, Russia, Britain and France - plus Germany are scheduled to hold talks with Iran Saturday in Istanbul over its nuclear program, which it maintains is peaceful.
Reuters reported on March 22 that ZTE had sold Iran's TCI a surveillance system capable of monitoring landline, mobile and internet communications. The system was part of a 98.6 million euro ($128.9 million) contract for networking equipment signed in December 2010.
The article reported that despite a longtime U.S. sales ban on tech products to Iran, ZTE's "Packing List" for the contract, dated July 24, 2011, also included numerous American hardware and software products, although they were not part of the surveillance system.
The U.S. product makers - which included Microsoft Corp, Hewlett-Packard Co and Dell Inc, among others - all said they were not aware of the Iranian contract, and several said they were investigating the matter.
The day after the article was published, a ZTE spokesman said the company would "curtail" its business in Iran. The company later issued a statement saying, "ZTE no longer seeks new customers in Iran and limits business activities with existing customers."
Three other telecommunications equipment makers - Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks and China-based Huawei Technologies - previously have said they would reduce their business in Iran. Huawei and ZTE have emerged as the largest equipment suppliers to Iran, according to people involved with the country's telecom industry.
The parts list for the June 2011 contract was much more dominated by U.S. products than the earlier equipment contract. The earlier pact was between TCI, ZTE and a Chinese trading company called Beijing 8-Star International Co. The latest contract was between ZTE, Beijing 8-Star and an Iranian company called Aryacell.
Aryacell is a unit of Iran Mobin Electronic Development Co., part of a consortium that controls TCI along with the Iranian government. According to the contract, Beijing 8-Star was required to provide "third-party equipments," while ZTE was responsible for supplying equipment and collecting payment. The contract was to last until Dec. 31, 2015.
Officials at Aryacell and TCI did not respond to requests for comment. A representative of Beijing 8-Star, reached in China, declined to answer questions, saying: "Concerning my business matters, it's not necessary for me to tell you anything."
The contract's parts list included products made by manufacturers from several countries. But most were from the U.S., with IBM items accounting for the bulk of them. The IBM parts included 30 servers and other computer equipment with a total cost of more than 6.8 million euros ($8.9 million), minus about a 30 percent discount.
Several of the IBM server models, though new, were discontinued shortly before the contract was signed. It called for a 12-month warranty on all equipment.
It is not clear how ZTE will get out of the contract. According to the terms, the contract only can be terminated if Aryacell breaches it, becomes bankrupt or can't pay its debts.
(Reported by Steve Stecklow in Boston. Additional reporting by Sui-Lee Wee in Beijing. Edited by Michael Williams.) (Reporting By Steve Stecklow)

[American Patriot]

‘Hotheads’ in Middle East provoking Iran, Russia says

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Published: 03 April, 2012, 17:32




Israeli soldiers stand guard aboard a missile ship in the Persian Gulf (AFP Photo Uriel Sinai)

TRENDS: Iran tension
TAGS: Military, Nuclear, Russia, Politics, Iran, USA, Robert Bridge, Israel, Sanctions

As the international community holds its breath over the Israel-Iran showdown, Russia rejects military action as a means to ending the crisis, calling for a full court diplomatic press to end the crisis.
­Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, warning that the Middle East standoff could boil over into military action at any moment, has called for urgent talks of the Sextet of Middle East mediators with Iran.
Iran and six world powers – comprised of Russia, the US, France, Germany, the UK and China – are scheduled to meet in Turkey (April 13-14) to find a diplomatic way of ending the standoff between Iran and the West, which accuses Tehran of concealing a nuclear weapons program.
Iran denies the allegations, saying the sole purpose of its nuclear activities is meant to generate an alternative source of energy for its civilian sector.
Ryabkov, pointing to the buildup of military assets in the Persian Gulf region, stressed the need to resolve the standoff by diplomatic means.
"The pot can explode if the diplomatic valve is not opened," Ryabkov warned. “The situation is so acute that any incidents are possible. This is especially dangerous when big military, naval capabilities are concentrated in the area.”

The risk of an accidental conflict breaking out cannot be ignored, he added.
"We find the situation very serious and tending to aggravate. All foot-dragging must stop. We need these talks badly," he said. "We should consistently follow the road of restoring confidence between the sides and de-escalating the situation.”
Ryabkov then accused Israel as being among the “hotheads” that seem overly eager to use military force to resolve the crisis.
"Alas, there are hotheads, some of them in Israel, who apparently have lost all faith in the possibility of an agreement with Iran,” he said. “Not for themselves because they don't have contacts (with Iran), but that the sextet (is not capable) of agreeing with Iran on a generally-acceptable foundation, therefore they speak of the possible use of force."
According to Ryabkov, saber rattling against Iran is every bit as useless as sanctions.
"That is unacceptable and according to all rules must be stopped,” the diplomat warned. “Nobody can win concessions from the Iranian side with a policy of threats, no more than with a policy of sanctions."

Meanwhile, Russia is concerned by a package of unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union against Iran, which Moscow views as an obstruction in its own trade relations with Tehran.
Saying that Russia is “concerned by specific sanctions against companies in Russia and other countries” as a result of the latest round of sanctions against Iran, Ryabkov added that the “scale of the extra-territorial application” of the sanction regime “exceeds anything that was practiced in the past.”
The sanctions serve as a major hindrance in the “legitimate development of trade and economic ties” between Russia and Iran, Ryabkov noted.
In addition to imposing an embargo on Iranian oil, there have also been stiff sanctions imposed against a number of individuals, companies, as well as the Central Bank and national banks in Iran. Meanwhile, new reports indicate that the US is planning to introduce new penalties against those who buy Iranian oil.
If implemented, the new sanctions will affect foreign banks involved in oil trade with Iran.
Ryabkov stressed that Russia, despite the growing obstacles, will do everything to maintain normal economic relations with Tehran.
"All of (the obstacles) are a hindrance,” Ryabkov said, adding that Russia is determined to “actively counter” the sanction regime.
“We believe that it is possible to maintain trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Iran in a way that does not jeopardize the interests of Russian-Iranian economic players,” he concluded.

[American Patriot]

Russians... don't have a lot of money to outfit their guys

[vector7]

Russia to keep warships off Syria coast

April 13, 2012 share

Russia will keep a permanent naval presence off Syria's coast to match the growing number of Western warships monitoring the 13-month crisis, a top defense official said on Friday.

"A decision has been taken to keep Russian navy ships permanently stationed near Syria's coast," the RIA Novosti state news agency quoted a senior Defense Ministry official as saying.

The unnamed source said the move was taken in response to the growing number of US warships in the region as well as those from European naval powers Britain and France.

Russia at the start of the month dispatched the Smetlivy guided-missile destroyer to the coast of its Soviet-era ally. The defense source said several Russian warships – including those capable of landing ground forces in Syria – were now being prepared for Mediterranean Sea missions.

The next warship sent to the region "could be the destroyer escort Pytlivy or one of the big amphibious assault ships," the Russian defense official said.

Earlier reports said the Smetlivy ship Russia now has off Syria's coast had planned to dock at the Tartus naval base that Moscow leases from Damascus.

The Syrian port is the last Russia has in the Mediterranean after an era of Soviet naval dominance and Moscow is keen to preserve its rights to the site.

A Saint Vincent-flagged cargo ship operated by a Russian company that docked in Tartus in January was reportedly delivering munitions for regime forces despite a Western arms embargo on Syria.

-AFP/NOW Lebanon

[vector7]

Assad offers Moscow, Beijing bonds worth $30bn. Russian warships off Syria

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 15, 2012, 10:18 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Bashar Assad Syrian uprising Russian warships UN Security Council


Russian guided missile destroyer

Announcing he is not responsible for the safety of UN observers on their way to Syria if they don’t obey his rules, President Bashar Assad has set in motion steps for prolonging his war on the Syrian people rather than abiding by a truce. debkafile discloses he offered Moscow and Beijing $30 billion worth of government bonds for a massive injection of funds to replenish his depleted war chest.

And at the UN Security Council, while Russia’s Vitaly Churkin in a surprise turnabout voted with the West on a UN observer team to secure the Syrian ceasefire, Moscow quietly sent warships to Syrian shores to secure the Assad regime.

The heaviest outlay for keeping the massive Syrian war machine turning over is on fuel. Countless tanks, self-propelled artillery, thousands of trucks and tank transporters are constantly on the move from one rebel flashpoint to another, reinforcing embattled units and ferrying troops, equipment and ammunition.

Iran covers the payroll for military and security personnel and the government bodies keeping the regime functioning - to the tune of more than half a billion dollars a month, according to estimates. But the embargo on fuel sales to Syria puts Assad in the hands of Lebanese merchants. He has run out of funds to meet their exorbitant charges for petrol and diesel, without which his military crackdown on the opposition would grind to a stop. Russia and China have therefore been asked for the necessary funding.

Moscow, meanwhile, announced Friday, April 13, “A decision has been made to deploy Russian warships near the Syrian shores on a permanent basis.”

The communiqué did not say who made the decision, but it may be assumed that the decision-maker is at the top level of the Kremlin, President-elect Vladimir Putin.

It is the first time that Moscow has officially announced the permanent deployment of naval vessels in the eastern Mediterranean and off Syria in particular. They extend a protective shield over Bashar Assad and the continuation of his regime against outside military intervention. They also guarantee that the UN observer team, due in Damascus by Monday, April 16, never becomes the nucleus of a broader international expedition for Assad’s removal under the UN aegis, which is what happened in Libya.

Moscow is making sure that the monitors adhere strictly to their Security Council mandate, determined not to leave it Washington or NATO to set out their areas of operation and powers. Assad drove this point home Sunday when ahead of their arrival in Damascus, he warned that he would not be responsible for the observers’ safety if they failed to comply with his rules
Western and Israeli military circles therefore find it hard to understand the rationale of the US and Turkish push for international monitors in Syria, unless the initiative was nothing more than a device to save them having to intervene militarily in the conflict.

In the final reckoning, the presence of a couple of hundred UN monitors in Syria will if anything prolong the violence: the rebels will regard the observers as the vanguard of a major international intervention force to champion their cause, while Assad and Moscow will clip their wings so as to give the Syrian army a free hand to finish the job of wiping out the anti-Assad revolt. Between the two, the UN team will be rendered useless like the Arab League monitors before them.

Seeing Russia and China solidly behind him, the Syria ruler expects them also to put their hands in their pockets to help him survive.

[vector7]

Russia is protecting Syria to save Iran

16 April 2012 / MİNHAC ÇELIK, İSTANBUL

A prominent expert on Syria has warned that Russia's protection of Syria is built on Russia's close alliance with Iran, saying, “The [most important] reason for Russia to support Syria is its alliance with Iran. If Syria falls, Iran will be the next target.”

Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria and the director of the University of Oklahoma's Center for Middle East Studies, also told Today's Zaman on Thursday that Turkey can “only lose if it invades” the country unilaterally, saying Ankara could quickly find itself in a military quagmire from which it “would not be able to extract itself until the Syrian regime is toppled … and a substitute government assembled.”

The Syria expert suggested that that while Syria is a “moral and humanitarian disaster that begs for humanitarian intervention,” it is a rapidly worsening civil conflict in which outside powers may be hard pressed to bring about positive change through military intervention. He predicts that if Turkey intervenes, though it may win diplomatic support from the West, it may not be able to expect the West's help in footing the enormous bill for refugees and Syria's reconstruction.

The Syria expert said “the spread of jihadism and al-Qaida, civil war, the possible break-up of Syria and a rising death toll” are all reasons why outside powers look with apprehension at the possibility of a failed state in Syria and will likely refrain from intervening in the near future.

Syria's Kurds

Landis said one of the greatest “open questions” about the conflict in Syria is the issue of the country's Kurdish population. “It is not clear if Syrian Kurds live overwhelmingly in the north part of the country or whether they are dispersed throughout Syria. This is, of course, closely related to the question of Kurdish autonomy. Do you think that is there any possibility for Syrian Kurds to declare independence or seek a political status similar to the one in Iraq?” the professor asked. Landis asserted that if the current conflict worsens, “Kurds in the northeast would prefer to secede from Syria and join Iraqi Kurdistan.”

The result, he said, is that Arabs and Kurds will likely remain at odds over what political concessions should be given to the Kurds in a post-Assad Syria. Arabs fear that granting federalism and "national" rights might encourage secession. “They do not trust the Kurdish parties and worry that granting federalism would set Syria on a slippery slope that could end with Kurdish independence,” Landis said.

Troubled intervention

Landis also cautioned about the growing Turkish enthusiasm to launch a limited “humanitarian intervention” in Syria, stating that “Syria could become a Vietnam for Turkey.”

“It would be fair and just if the international community would pay its share for the Syrian refugees who have fled to Turkey, but sadly this is unlikely.

The Syrians got little aid for the Iraqi refugees that fled to Syria. Turkey is unlikely to get much more, although if they demand help from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other agencies, they may do better than Syria,” Landis said.

What is the biggest problem for Turkey? Landis suggested it may be the divided Syrian political opposition, which Ankara has worked to unify; he said it still lacks the necessary internal unity and national credibility to become a government-in-waiting. Without such a necessary political body, Landis said intervention and the reconstruction of Syria “would take a very long time.” Turkey, he said, should be cautious not to foot the bill alone.

[American Patriot]

Ahmadinejad warns against aggression on Iran



Updated 39m ago


TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran's armed forces will make its enemies regret any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned on Tuesday as Iranians marked National Army Day with a military parade near the capital Tehran.

• By Vahid Salemi, AP
  Iranian troops march during Tuesday's military parade commemorating National Army Day outside Tehran.

Enlarge



By Vahid Salemi, AP
Iranian troops march during Tuesday's military parade commemorating National Army Day outside Tehran.

Although Ahmadinejad did not specify any countries, such language used by Iranian officials is a common reference to the West, especially the United States and Israel.

The harsh tone was typical of speeches for military events but it contrasted sharply with a sense of cautious progress after the direct talks with world powers last week on Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The remarks could leave Western officials confused by the mixed signals.

"Our armed forces will make the enemy face a heavy and shameful regret if they commit any aggression and violate Iran's interests," Ahmadinejad said in a speech broadcast live on state TV.

Both the U.S. and Israel have not ruled out a military option against Iran's nuclear facilities, which the West suspects are geared toward making nuclear arms — a charge Tehran denies, insisting its program is for peaceful purposes only. Iran's refusal to halt the uranium enrichment program has been its main point of contention with the West.

"The foreign interference will bear nothing but destruction, rifts and insecurity" in the region, Ahmadinejad said.

The comments are typical of rhetoric that has been coming out of Tehran, belligerent one day, conciliatory the next.

Iran has hinted at more flexibility after Tehran and the world powers agreed to hold more talks on its controversial nuclear program following their Saturday discussions in Istanbul, which both sides praised as positive. A second round is planned for next month in Baghdad.

Prior to the talks in Istanbul with the five permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany, Tehran offered to scale back uranium enrichment but not abandon the ability to make nuclear fuel. At the same time, however, it ignored another Western concern — Iran's existing stockpile. The West wants Iran's current reserves of 20 percent-enriched uranium to be transferred out of the country.

After Istanbul, Iranian officials urged the West to start taking steps to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU over Iran's nuclear activities.

During the parade on Tuesday, Iran displayed an array of its homemade short-range missiles, tanks, drones and air defense system as well as some of its jet fighters, warplanes and military helicopters. Iran has tried to build a self-sufficient military program since 1992.

On the sidelines of the parade, Iran's army chief Gen. Ataollah Salehi told the state IRNA news agency that U.S. warships in the Gulf are "sweet targets" for Iranian armed forces.

Salehi, who is known for anti-U.S. rhetoric and had threatened U.S. ships in the Gulf before, did not elaborate.

In January, he warned an American warship not to return to the Gulf shortly after the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and another vessel left the region. Another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, entered the Gulf without incident later in January.

Iran has also in the past threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway in the Gulf through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, a move that could send oil prices soaring.

Among the weaponry on display Tuesday was "Qadr," or a Sacred Night mentioned in the Quran, a 2,000 pound guided bomb. Iran has earlier suggested it could counter the U.S. naval presence in the Gulf.

[MinutemanCO]

Is it me or is it difficult to register any fear toward the army in the fuzzy green and yellow helmets? They look like something out of Willy Wonka.

"Our armed forces will make the enemy face a heavy and shameful regret if they commit any aggression and violate Iran's interests. We will make you eat much chocolate and blow up like enormous balloons." Ahmadinejad said in a speech broadcast live on state TV.

[vector7]

Tehran says if Iran is attacked, nuclear devices will go off in American cities

DEBKA Report April 13. 2010. 6:53 PM (GMT-*-02:00)

Kayhan, the influential Iranian newspaper that is under the direct supervision of the Office of the Supreme Leader, reports that if Iran is attacked, there will be nuclear blasts in American cities. Also in the article below, the Fars News Agency, run by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, quotes Behzad Solani, Deputy Director of Iran's Atomic Commission. "Iran will join the world nuclear club within a month." Please investigate. Thank you, Dr. Hugh Cort, President, American Foundation for Counter-Terrorism Policy and Research (www.AFCPR.org)

Tehran: If Iran is attacked, nuclear devices will go off in American cities
This warning, along with an announcement that Iran would join the world's nuclear club within a month, raised the pitch of Iranian anti-US rhetoric to a new high Tuesday, April 13, as 47 world leaders gathered in Washington for President Barack Obama's Nuclear Security Summit. The statement published by Kayhan said: "If the US strikes Iran with nuclear weapons, there are elements which will respond with nuclear blasts in the centers of America's main cities," For the first time, DEBKAfile's military sources report, Tehran Indicated the possibility of passing nuclear devices to terrorists capable of striking inside the United States.

Without specifying whether those elements would be Iranian or others, Tehran aimed at the heart of the Nuclear Security Summit by threatening US cities with nuclear terror. DEBKAfile's Iranians sources report that Tehran is playing brinkmanship to demonstrate that the Washington summit, from which Iran and North Korea were excluded, failed before it began, because terrorist elements capable of striking inside the US had already acquired nuclear devices for that purpose.

Although Iran has yet to attain operational nuclear arms, our military sources believe it does possess the makings of primitive nuclear devices or "dirty bombs."In an interview ahead of the summit, President Obama warned:"If there was ever a detonation in New York City, or London, or Johannesburg, the ramifications... would be devastating." In another shot at the summit, Behzad Soltani, deputy director of Iran's Atomic Commission announced Tuesday: "Iran will join the world nuclear club within a month in a bid to deter possible attacks on the country." He added: "No country would even think about attacking )ran once it is in the Club."

The Iranian official's boast was run by the Fars news agency, published by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Behzadi further pointed to the construction of 360 MW nuclear power plant and a 40 MW research reactor in Iran's central city of Arak, claiming the projects were 70 percent complete. This plant is generally believed to have been built to enable Iran to produce weapons-grade plutonium as an alternative weapons fuel to highly-enriched uranium and material for radioactive weapons. Sunday, April 11, DEBKAff/e reported that Iran is making much better progress than Western and Israeli intelligence estimates have held toward completing the Arak heavy water reactor.

Along with the strides made in its nuclear manufacturing capacity, Tehran's anti-US rhetoric has grown more strident in the past week. Thursday, April 8, Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj.Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi said if the United States made any military moves on the Islamic Republic "none of the American troops in the region would go back home alive."

DEBKAffte's military sources report the presence of app. 220,000 US soldiers in the countries around Iran, including Gulf bases and waters, Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iranian general was reacting to US defense secretary Robert Gates' warning that Washington's policy decision to limit the use of nuclear arms if attacked did not apply to Iran and North Korea.

[American Patriot]

Is it me or is it difficult to register any fear toward the army in the fuzzy green and yellow helmets? They look like something out of Willy Wonka.

I knew someone would make comment about that. LOL

I was going to but figured I couldn't be funny enough hahaha