North Korea's Kim May Have Had Stroke, Official Says

[Toad]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...8ew&refer=asia

North Korea's Kim May Have Had Stroke, Official Says

By Jeff Bliss and Heejin Koo

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is sick and may have suffered a stroke in the past month, a U.S. intelligence official said.
The official, who declined to be publicly identified, said it was noteworthy that Kim didn't attend the 60th anniversary celebration of North Korea's founding today. The U.S., China and other nations have been negotiating with Kim's communist dictatorship about scrapping its nuclear weapons program in exchange for economic aid and broader ties.
U.S. intelligence had other reasons to believe Kim is ill, the official said, declining to describe those conclusions.

The South Korean government said Kim's absence at the celebration was unusual. ``We think that it is highly irregular, since he made an appearance during the 50th and 55th anniversary'' events, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho Nyoun said in an interview.

A person who answered the telephone at the North Korean mission to the UN denied that Kim might have suffered a stroke. ``That is not true,'' the person said before hanging up without identifying himself. A subsequent call to the mission wasn't answered.

The developments come as North Korea has taken steps to reverse the dismantling of a major nuclear site, part of an agreement with the U.S., China, South Korea, Russia and Japan to end its nuclear-arms effort.
Yongbyon Site

Scientists at the Yongbyon plant, which produced weapons- grade plutonium, are moving equipment out of storage and are ``taking some of the steps that would allow them to restart'' the reactor, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters in Washington yesterday.

Kim is 67, according to a birth date accepted by sources including GlobalSecurity.org, a military-research group, and the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. The North Korean government says Kim is 66 and was born in 1942, a date that some scholars say was chosen for propaganda purposes to celebrate his 40th birthday in 1982, the year his father turned 70.

Known for his bouffant hairdo and zip-front olive-green jackets, Kim has led the impoverished country of 23 million people since his father, Kim Il Sung, died in 1994. South Korea's intelligence agency says he favors imported cognac, horse riding and driving fast cars. The little that is known of Kim outside of North Korea tends to come through the filter of the state-run media.

Food Shortage
North Koreans are suffering through their worst food shortage in a decade, exacerbated by China's controls on grain exports, the United Nations said last week. China took the measure to curb surging food prices in its domestic market.

McCormack declined to comment today on Kim's health or the potential ramifications of any illness. ``Obviously this is a very opaque regime,'' McCormack told reporters in Washington. ``We don't necessarily have a good picture into the decision- making processes of the North Korean regime.''

Kim hasn't publicly signaled a choice of a successor. He has three sons and a brother-in-law, Jang Song Taek, who may be among candidates to ascend to power. Some analysts have suggested that military officers might take over, with the Kim family either out of the picture or providing a figurehead ruler.

Soviet Support
North Korea emerged as a Soviet-backed state after World War II, when talks between the Soviet Union and the U.S., later involving the UN, failed to reach agreement on unifying the southern and northern parts of the Korean peninsula. In June 1950, North Korean troops crossed into the South, and U.S. forces came to the South's defense under a UN mandate.

A 1953 truce stopped the fighting, while retaining the political division, and no formal peace treaty has been negotiated.
North Korea and the U.S. enjoyed a brief period of warming relations in 2000, after Kim Jong Il held his historic summit with then South Korean President Kim Dae Jung in June. In October that year, Kim sent Vice Marshall Jo Myong Rok to Washington, who carried with him a letter inviting President Bill Clinton to Pyongyang. That led to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit the same month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net; Heejin Koo in Seoul at hjkoo@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 9, 2008 13:36 EDT

[Backstop]

So...

Kim Jong Il is ill.

[Malsua]

I read another article that said he's had surgery on his circulation system...probably to remove a clot.

[eversman]

May he suffer for the rest of his miserable life. We always knew he was mentally ill, now it would seem the rest of his body is catching up.


ev

[Toad]

The scary part is the "what if..."

What if 'Lil Kim doesn't pull through, suddenly dies for whatever reason now. Post-stroke complications. What kind of power vacuum is left? Who's jockying for position? How hard are they willing to jockey? Just how destabilized can North Korea go from here? Could the next guy be even worse because he won't have the cult of personality and will have to hold on by sheer domination alone? Could the entire nation just implode?

The possibility of a situation FUBARed beyond belief completely exists.

[wallis]

Whatever happens, it is my opinion that South Korea and the PRC will do everything possible to make sure North Korea stays afloat.

SK cannot afford to reunify with NK at this time.

The PRC does not relish the idea of moving into NK, as it would upset the delicate balance of the region. The world would never look upon such a move as benevolent but as an escalation of power/land grabbing.

Secondly, the PRC has enough on its plate just trying to keep its far-flung empire together without adding huge economic and financial burdens that invading NK would certainly bring about.

[Jag]

Experts Debate North Korea After Kim
By Kent Klein Washington 16 September 2008

Recent reports of North Korean ruler Kim Jong Il's poor health have led to speculation about what changes could be in store for the reclusive Stalinist country after Mr. Kim's eventual death. VOA's Kent Klein asked several experts for their views.

Kim Jong Il (Aug 2002 file photo)

North Korea's government is one of the most secretive in the world, so many U.S.-based Korea experts agree that it is almost impossible for people other than the rulers in Pyongyang to know what might happen after Kim Jong Il dies.

In the absence of verifiable information, experts such as Gary Samore, Director of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, say all they can provide is an educated guess.

"There is so much we do not know and in particular, we do not understand the dynamics of the internal decision-making within the elite," said Gary Samore.

The question of who might succeed Kim Jong Il when he dies is wrapped in mystery. As far as Western experts know, there is no succession protocol in place. Kim Jong Il came to power in North Korea after the death of his father, Kim Il Sung, in the 1990s.

And while Kim Jong Il has several adult children, Gary Samore says it is not clear that they would continue the family dynasty.

"Either they are in the doghouse [out of favor] because they have misbehaved, or they are far too young to be credible candidates," he said. "So most likely, people think, you would have some kind of collective leadership, including military figures and senior party figures, rather than a single, dominant leader."

Gordon Flake, Executive Director of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, which promotes U.S.-Asia relations, says a collective leadership in North Korea would be run mostly, if not entirely, by the military. But he says history is no help in trying to figure that out.

"We have never had a North Korea without a Kim at the head, so this is not a case when we can look back to past precedents and cite what has happened," said Gordon Flake.

Several experts, including Flake, do not expect major reforms or changes from whoever succeeds Kim Jong Il.

"The military seems to be the most opaque, reactionary, conservative body in North Korean society," he said. "And so I have a difficult time expecting anything other than that type of behavior out of them."

Brad Glosserman, Executive Director of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, Hawaii, sees a military-run North Korea becoming even more repressive.

"I think it would become more immobile," said Brad Glosserman. "I think it would become even harder to figure out what is happening. And I think what you would see is a leadership that would be struggling, essentially, with a succession crisis that it is yet to experience. I think that that would only encourage its every reactionary, conservative, whatever the most appropriate adjective, impulses are."

Gary Samore adds that a more repressive military government in Pyongyang would guard against instability.

"The population is so suppressed and repressed, and of course, the government retains a very powerful apparatus of internal security," said Samore. "Most people think it is unlikely that you would see a sudden collapse of the state."

Experts are almost unanimous in stating that a post-Kim government would want to hold on to its nuclear weapons. But Brad Glosserman sees North Korea's nuclear arsenal as less of a threat than Pakistan's because there appears to be more unity among leaders in Pyongyang than in Islamabad.

"I would be far more concerned about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal than I would about North Korea's," he said. "So I think that that would be fairly locked-down, and I would not be worried about someone getting their hands on it and doing something with it."

Glosserman says he is worried about two possible post-Kim situations. He says one faction in the government could invite China to intervene militarily, which could anger South Korea. Or, he, says there could be an international misunderstanding.

"If there is uncertainty and if there is a succession crisis in the North, they will be extraordinarily sensitive, hypervigilant, in fact, and worried about anyone exploiting that," said Glosserman. "So the danger there is that someone, in their paranoia, will misread something that either Seoul or the United States, or perhaps even China, does in such a way that it creates a very dangerous situation."

In any event, experts will keep watching for any trickle of information from Pyongyang that might give an indication of the North Korea's future.
http://voanews.com/english/2008-09-16-voa59.cfm

Jag

[Jag]

North Korea awaits 'major message'

North Korean TV released pictures said to show Kim Jong-il recently inspecting a base [Gallo/Getty] North Korea has ordered its overseas diplomats to be prepared for an "important announcement" that may be related to the health of its leader Kim Jong-il, according to a Japanese newspaper. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported, quoting several unidentified sources familiar with North Korean issues, that Pyongyang had told diplomats around the world to refrain from travelling until the announcement had been made. The sources suggested that the message could be related to Kim's health or the communist nation's relations with South Korea. Yomiuri Shimbun said the announcement was expected in a few days. Kim's failure to appear at North Korea's 60th anniversary parade on September 9 sparked widespread conjecture that he was ill or even dead. Brain surgery South Korean officials have said that he underwent brain surgery following a stroke around mid-August. Some reports said that Kim has suffered partial paralysis. However, North Korean state television last week broadcast photographs which it said were of a recent inspection by Kim of a women's artillery base. "We've heard the news. We are checking it," a spokesman for South Korea's National Intelligence Service said of Saturday's reports. He declined to say whether the spy agency had learned of the expected announcement from Yomiuri Shimbun or a different source. Dr Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based military analyst, told Al Jazeera that there would likely be a power struggle in North Korea if it was announced that Kim had died. "When the father of Kim Jong-il died there was a smooth transition because there was a clear heir to the throne, now there isn't and there is a high possibility of a destabilisation of Korea," he said. "There are the military leaders who are very powerful, there is also the Kim family that is very powerful, clearly there are going to be divisions." Kim Jong-il 'in control' South Korea's defence minister said on Friday that he believed that Kim remained in control in Pyongyang despite the widespread reports, but that the situation in North Korea was unpredictable. Kim's absence from the country's 60th anniversary parade sparked rumours [EPA] "Kim Jong-il has not been seen in public for a while now, but both Korean and United States intelligence services estimate that he still has control over his administration," Lee Sang-hee told reporters in Washington. Lee, joined by Robert Gates, the US defence minister, said that Washington and Seoul were monitoring the situation closely. He said the state of Kim's health had "significant implications for the security of the Korean peninsula. "Crisis or instability situations in North Korea could stem from many different causes, so it would be very difficult to predict them at this point," he said. On Thursday, Pyongyang threatened to end all relations with Seoul, a major source of aid and cash, in anger at moves by Lee Myung-bak, South Korea's president, to cut off much of the largely unconditional aid it provides. Analysts say that North Korea may feel that it is able to sever its connections with the South because of leverage gained by its renewed commitment to dismantling a nuclear plant. "For North Korea right now reunification right now would be like the reunification of Germany; the disapperance of a Stalinist communist state, and of course the leadership is totally against that," Felgenhauer told Al Jazeera. "There could be again a crisis between the South and North, although hopefully this will just be the closing of borders and in a year or so they will go again for some kind of detente."

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/as...625183410.html

Jag

[Ryan Ruck]

Interesting... I wonder if he is going to perhaps pass off power like Fidel did,

[Malsua]

I find it interesting that they wait for East Coast time to release messages.

Sorta like the bombings that used to occur in Iraq. They were all timed for the East Coast USA news cycle.

[Jag]

North Korean Leader Might Have Suffered Two Strokes


North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might have suffered strokes in August and October, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Nov. 10).

There have been extensive reports that Kim had a stroke in August, which was about the time that Pyongyang began a temporary suspension and reversal of efforts to disable its key nuclear facilities. The regime chief is believed to have undergone brain surgery following the first incident.

The Tokyo Broadcasting System reported today that additional intelligence indicates that Kim also suffered a stroke late last month.

“He had the second stroke in late October, which caused him difficulty moving his left hand and leg, and has affected his speech,” according to TBS, which cited a U.S. intelligence source in South Korea.

North Korea has denied all reports of Kim’s troubles and has issued photographs showing him seemingly in good health (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Nov. 11).

Reports that Kim suffered another stroke are “groundless” and “wishful thinking,” according to Kim Myong Chol, head of the regime-friendly Center for U.S.-North Korea Peace (Julian Ryall, London Telegraph, Nov. 11).

With Kim assumed to be in poor health, his brother-in-law has apparently increased his standing in Pyongyang or even essentially taken control of the government, AFP reported today.

Jang Song Taek “is apparently in charge of receiving orders from Kim and channeling them (to state agencies),” said South Korean analyst Cheong Seong-chang.

A high-level South Korean intelligence official said that Jang appears to be filing in for Kim in handling the daily operations of government. Jang has full control over North Korean police and security operations, the source said.

“We find it rather fortunate that Jang Song Taek, not the military, is in effect governing the North,” the official said.

Observers have expressed concern that the North Korean military, if in control of the nation, might attempt to roll back progress made under a 2007 agreement in which Pyongyang agreed to give up its nuclear sector in exchange for economic, diplomatic and security benefits (Park Chan-kyong, Agence France-Presse II/Yahoo!News, Nov. 11).

Under the deal, North Korea is to receive 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil or related energy assistance from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. An alternate source is being sought to replace Tokyo, which has refused to provide assistance until North Korea resolves the dispute over its abduction of Japanese citizens in past decades.

Pyongyang has received 500,000 tons of oil from Russia and the United States. Another 50,000-ton U.S. shipment is expected this month, Kyodo News reported.

Washington hopes the latest supply would persuade North Korean officials to be more flexible in the next round of denuclearization talks, which could convene this month in Beijing.

Expected to be on the agenda are a possible written schedule for provision of the remaining energy aid and a set timetable for ongoing disablement of North Korea’s plutonium-producing nuclear reactor and other plants at its Yongbyon complex.

Disablement is the second phase of the nuclear agreement, to be followed by full dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear facilities and, the other nations hope, elimination of its atomic arsenal (Kyodo News/Breitbart.com, Nov. 11).

Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak expressed not a “speck of concern” that a possible meeting between Kim and President-elect Barack Obama could undermine the denuclearization process, the Associated Press reported today. Obama has said he would be willing to meet with the North Korean leader.

Lee’s government has taken a harder stand on Pyongyang that its predecessors. However, Lee said again Sunday that he would also be willing to meet with Kim (Associated Press/USA Today, Nov. 11).

Jag