How the Russian bear took control of Europe

[vector7]

How the Russian bear took control of Europe



The single gravest political error committed by European nations in the past 10 years will turn out to be their failure to prevent Russia gaining control over energy supplies. Now that we are well on our way into Cold War II, this failure will come back to haunt us in two forms: a lack of political leverage to influence Russia, and serious vulnerability to Russian threats, political or economic.
In spite of ample warning signs, significant academic analysis and continuous hectoring from the US on this topic, the EU -- riven by its usual divisions -- failed to enforce a common policy to diversify its energy sources. And this is in spite of several EU-level resolutions to do just that, resolutions which were promptly contradicted by the actions of individual countries.
Europe imports over 80% of its oil and and nearly 60% of its natural gas, and both figures are rising. Half of the natural gas and 30% of the oil are imported from Russia. Ever since Putin came to power, he has made it his (not explicit but obvious) policy to increase the dependence of Europe on Russian energy supplies. He has done this in several ways:

• by consolidating Kremlin control over the supply through state behemoths like Gazprom and Lukoil, forcing out foreign investors (see the BP-TNK debacle) in order to take control of joint-ventures;
• by locking in long-term demand through bilateral agreements with European importers, with the added benefit of wrecking EU policy and dividing the continent;
• by extending government influence on downstream refining and distribution outside of Russia ('strategic investments' have been made in Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Ukraine, as well as attempts to invest directly in Germany);
• by strong-arming neighboring countries (Ukraine, central Asia) into energy supply and transit 'clubs' that ensure their continued dependence on Russian supplies and transit fees;
• by promoting more pipelines that flow direct from Russia to the West, and sabotageing the development of pipeline projects that would avoid Russia (eg, in Georgia).

Yes, in Putin we have a man who can think strategically across a decade or more about how to increase Russia's leverage in the world. This puts him in a strong position to undermine Europe, which is not capable of long-term strategic policy action. On top of that, sustained high energy prices have enabled him to accelerate his plans.
France, Germany, Italy and Austria are all guilty of contravening stated EU policy and negotiating new, bilateral supply agreements with Gazprom. This gives Gazprom long-term price stability and the Kremlin huge political leverage. Is it any wonder that these countries can't form a united front in the face of Russian agression in Georgia? Will they be able to stand up if Russia starts to pressure the Ukraine or the Baltics?
In 2007, Gazprom and ENI of Italy signed an MoU to run a gas pipeline (South Stream) from Russia to Italy via the Black Sea. This directly undermines the only viable pipeline project -- promoted by the EU and the US -- that would reduce European dependence on Russia: the Nabucco pipeline that would have run from the Caspian via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria, benefiting EU member countries. With Russia's continued part-occupation of Georgia, the fate of existing oil and gas pipelines in that country is unclear.

I'm sure there is plenty of uncomfortable wriggling of bums in European parliaments now, but it is largely too late to undo this huge strategic error. Russian President Medvedev has made repeated noises in the past 2 weeks about military retaliation against Poland if a US missile shield is installed there, and is likely to play very aggressive politics against Ukraine's accession to NATO. (By the way, 95% of European gas imports from Russia go through Ukraine.)
What is our leverage on Russia? Delay Russia's entry into the WTO? Kick them out of the G8? Stop joint military exercises? Block ministers' foreign bank accounts? Whoop-dee-doo. If we find a point of leverage that hurts or upsets Putin, he may just turn off the spigot for a week to see what happens...
[Good background material on this issue here, here and here.]

[eversman]

Stupid-Ass Europeans. They've been telling themselves "there is no threat, there is no threat, there is no threat" for so long and so often they beleived it. And now, it will be up to us (YET AGAIN) to attempt to bail europe out, and to keep them safe because they arent bright enough to do it for themselves.


Ev

[vector7]

Russia's Conquest of Europe

by J. R. Nyquist

Weekly Column Published: 1.29.2010

Print On 11 November 2009 the Russian libertarian economist Andrei Illarionov spoke at a meeting of the "discussion club" of the OGF (United Citizens Front) in Moscow. He offered some remarkable observations and analysis that American readers should know about. For those who are unfamiliar with his work, it is worth noting that Illarionov has been an economic advisor to Russian leaders, resigning in protest when Russian leaders refused to take his advice. Illarionov speaks out boldly, and has warned American politicians that their policy toward Russia is worse than appeasement. In an article that appeared in the Washington Post two years ago, he characterized U.S. policy toward Russia as "enabling" dictatorship.

Perhaps the most striking statement made by Illarionov in recent months, was on the subject of corruption. "Totalitarian regimes are very much corrupted," said Illarionov during the 11 November meeting of the discussion club. "[The Russian leaders] find support abroad, outside, among the states that are citadels of democracy, in the countries that actually make a big effort to protect freedom and democracy at home; but still, the totalitarian regimes find support there...."

How do they find this support? According to Illarionov, "Under the existing system, it is very easy to buy off the European leadership. It costs very little, and is easily done, so it is not a problem to achieve results with this method in Europe." In fact, Illarionov asks if the statesmen of any system can remain independent in the wake of sweetheart deals they cannot refuse to take. The Russians look at European politicians the way a shopper looks at goods in a store. They see one they like, examine the price tag, and pay the cashier. In fact, they use oil money, which allows them to buy whatever they see. Illarionov noted: "The largest export that Russia delivers is corruption. It's not oil or gas, but corruption. And this is in greater demand than even oil or gas." The politicians of Western Europe love corruption, because it makes them rich.

The Russians, Illarionov explained, are trying to push the United States out of Europe. Why should Europe need a security alliance with America? Why not ally with Russia? It is the stated policy of Russia to remake Europe by eliminating NATO, by creating a "new security infrastructure" that effectively isolates the Americans. For the last ten years, noted Illarionov, the leadership of Germany realized that unification transformed Germany into the strongest political force in Europe -- except for Russia. The Germans began to resent America's role as Europe's protector.

This suited the Russians perfectly. "The policy of Germany in Europe is the policy of the leader of Europe for the past ten years," noted Illarionov. The Germans want to lead Europe. "No other country, except Russia of course, can pursue a policy of leadership like Germany." So the Russians flatter the Germans, and let them imagine a bright future. "Let the Americans go home, and leave Europe," they say. "Russia will gladly work with Germany. After all, we [Russians] respect our German 'partners.'"

For those unfamiliar with Soviet Cold War strategy, the Kremlin's goal is nothing new. Russia wants America out of Europe so that Russia can dominate Europe. Once the Americans have withdrawn their commitment to protect Europe, the Germans will be forced to accept satellite status under Russia. This is not understood today, because the German leaders are corrupt. They have been bought, and are vulnerable to blackmail. Meanwhile, America's position in Europe is diminishing. The time is coming, therefore, when America will be isolated; when America will be surrounded by a hostile world. Latin America will be in the Russian camp (under Chavez and his associates), Europe will be in the Russian camp, China will be in the Russian camp, etc.

Someone asked Illarionov if Russia was increasing global tensions in preparation for a world war. Illarionov replied: "The government in Russia is interested in increasing international tensions to its maximum or even up to the level of a world war which may lead to a global catastrophe and to a change of the world order; [but] we cannot see into the heads of our [Russian] leadership."

According to Illarionov, the Russian leaders "possess a feature" which indicates "an absence of an understanding of basic things. But I would like to hope that their goal is not to push tensions to a world war, though they definitely wan tensions increased in specific areas, like the Middle East and Persian Gulf region, between Israel and Iran on the issue of Iran developing nuclear weapons. This is influencing the oil prices. This is the best way to bolster oil prices throughout the world. In a matter like this they are not stupid at all, and they know how money is made. This is one of the major sources to support their political power, and to fill their own private coffers.

From this point of view their policy is very rational, and quite cynical."
The West is asleep. A game of "divide and conquer" is advanced against us. The days of the NATO alliance are numbered. Russia has been buying politicians all over Europe, and if those politicians stay bought, there will be no one to oppose the Russian plan. America will then find itself isolated, economically vulnerable, and militarily inferior.

Copyright © 2010 Jeffrey R. Nyquist